证券研究报告 可选消费 24/25Q1 换新显效，关注两个方向 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 09 日│中国内地 专题研究 24 年家电换新提振内销，25Q1 板块面临关税挑战 2024 年家电板块（申万）累计上涨约 25.4%，涨幅居行业前列，表现明显 优于上证综指与沪深 300。得益于内需"以旧换新"政策红利以及出口补库， 全年板块收入同比+5.6%，归母净利润+7.1%，盈利能力稳健。25 年 1-4 月 家电换新维持拉动力，但出口面临关税挑战，板块承压回调约 1.6%。展望 25Q2，政策持续发力、内需具备支撑，叠加前期高基数效应减退，预计板 块将呈结构性修复态势，机会主要来自内销需求回暖与出口预期修复两端。 白电：尽显格局优势 空调/冰洗板块 24 年收入分别同比+4%/+7%，换新政策驱动下，头部优势凸 显，龙头企业借助价格策略和结构升级，保障盈利能力提升，归母净利分别 同比+13%/+7%。25Q1 换新拉动力维持（空调/冰洗收入同比+17%+14%）， 且随政策深入、费用优化，归母净利分别同比+33%/+33%。展望 25Q2，内 销基数回落、618 备货启动叠加政策催化，白电仍为板块内最具 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index showed stability, closing up 0.40%, supported by sectors like banking and electricity [1] - The US and UK reached a trade agreement, reducing tariffs on UK car imports from 25% to a maximum of 10%, with a cap of 100,000 cars per year [1] - The agreement requires the UK to purchase an additional $5 billion in US agricultural products and a $10 billion Boeing procurement deal [1] US-China Trade Negotiations - Substantial trade negotiations between the US and China are set to take place, with expectations of a significant reduction in tariffs from 145% to 50% [2] - The negotiations are seen as exploratory, aimed at understanding each side's demands and limits [2] Economic Data - China's April exports in USD rose by 8.1% year-on-year, while imports fell by 0.2%, resulting in a trade surplus of $96.18 billion [4] - The data indicates a strong performance in trade despite the ongoing tariff conflicts, with April's figures being the second highest for the month historically [4] Sector Focus - The Chinese government is intensifying efforts to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals, which is crucial for national security and economic stability [7] - The crackdown on smuggling is expected to tighten supply and support prices, potentially enhancing company performance in the sector [7] Company Highlights - China Resources Beverage reported a revenue of 13.521 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.661 billion yuan for 2024, marking a 24.7% increase [9] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 0.483 yuan per share, reflecting a payout ratio of 70.8% [9] - The beverage segment is experiencing significant growth, with a 30.8% increase in revenue, contributing to 10.3% of total revenue [10] - The company is increasing its self-production capacity, aiming for over 60% by 2025, which will reduce reliance on outsourcing and lower manufacturing costs [10]

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 09 日 星期五 研报精选 "五一"旅游市场平稳增长，长线游与入境游表现亮眼 家电行业 25Q1 基金持仓跟踪报告 交运行业 25Q1 公募基金持仓跟踪报告 | [Table_InnerMarketIndex] 国内市场表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | 上证指数 | 3,352.00 | 0.28% | | 深证成指 | 10,197.66 | 0.93% | | 沪深 300 | 3,852.90 | 0.56% | | 科创 50 | 1,026.44 | -0.36% | | 创业板指 | 2,029.45 | 1.65% | | 上证 50 | 2,679.51 | 0.33% | | 上证 180 | 8,546.20 | 0.14% | | 上证基金 | 6,902.65 | 0.35% | | 国债指数 | 224.77 | 0.05% | | [Table_InterIndex] | 国际市场表现 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for major companies in the home appliance sector, including Midea Group, Gree Electric, Hisense Home Appliances, and others, all receiving a "Strong Buy" recommendation [2]. Core Insights - The home appliance industry showed strong performance in Q1 2025, supported by national subsidies, booming exports to emerging markets, and increased shipments to North America. The report suggests focusing on new consumer trends domestically and leveraging tariff opportunities for exports [1][6]. - Major appliances reported impressive results, with Midea's exports growing over 30%, particularly in air conditioning and kitchen appliances. Hisense and other second-tier brands also experienced significant export growth [6]. - The report highlights the emergence of new consumer trends in small appliances, with companies like Ninebot and Roborock showing exceptional growth. The tariff situation presents a strategic opportunity for companies with high exposure to the U.S. market [6]. Industry Overview - The home appliance sector consists of 88 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 1,846.4 billion and a circulating market value of 1,761.9 billion [3]. - The industry index has shown varied performance, with absolute performance at -1.4% over one month, but a relative performance of 14.9% over six months [5]. Company Performance - Midea Group's EPS for 2024 is projected at 5.03, increasing to 5.62 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 13.4 and a PB of 2.5 [2]. - Gree Electric is expected to see EPS rise from 5.75 in 2024 to 6.25 in 2025, with a PE of 7.4 and a PB of 1.8 [2]. - Hisense Home Appliances anticipates an EPS increase from 2.42 to 2.71, with a PE of 10.3 and a PB of 2.3 [2].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market saw all three major indices close higher on May 8, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.37%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 0.7%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.56% [1] Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector showed signs of recovery, with notable gains in companies such as Zhaoyan New Drug (up 5.63%), WuXi Biologics (up 3.92%), and Kanglong Chemical (up 1.62%) [1] - The automotive sector was active, highlighted by Li Auto-W, which rose by 4.96% ahead of the launch of its new L series models [1] - Technology-related stocks, including mobile gaming and cloud computing, mostly experienced gains, with Boyaa Interactive rising by 10.38% and Tencent Holdings increasing by 1.67% [2] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector saw collective movements in cosmetics, tobacco, and home appliances, with China Tobacco Hong Kong rising by 8.27% and JS Global Life increasing by 3.39% [2] - Conversely, retail and luxury goods stocks faced declines, with Samsonite dropping by 3.64% and Prada falling by 3.82% [2] Notable Stock Movements - Geely Automobile rose by 4.41% as it announced plans to privatize its brand Zeekr at a premium of 13.6% [4] - Youju Holdings surged by 150% following a change in controlling interest and a buyout offer at a 41.7% discount [5] - Shanghai Auntie saw a significant first-day listing increase of 40.03%, bringing its total market capitalization to HKD 16.225 billion [6]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a general upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.37%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 0.7%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.56%, marking a six-day consecutive rise for the Hang Seng Index [1][2]. Sector Performance - Major technology stocks maintained an upward trend, with Meituan and Tencent both rising nearly 2%, Xiaomi up 1.4%, while Baidu fell nearly 3% and NetEase showed a decline [2]. - Defense stocks surged due to escalating tensions in the India-Pakistan conflict, with AVIC Industry and China Shipbuilding Defense both rising over 6% [4][5]. - Bitcoin briefly surpassed $99,000, leading to a significant rise in cryptocurrency-related stocks, with New Fire Technology Holdings soaring nearly 20% [2]. - The automotive sector saw strong performance, with companies like Geely, Li Auto, and Great Wall Motors all rising over 4% [8]. - Gaming stocks also performed well, with Huicai Holdings increasing over 13% and Sands China up over 1% [9]. - Consumer electronics and home appliance stocks were active, with JS Global Life rising over 3% and TCL Electronics up over 2% [10]. - Agricultural stocks increased, with China Heartlink Fertilizer and First Tractor Company both rising over 3% [11]. - Power sector stocks strengthened, with Harbin Electric rising over 4% [12]. - Steel stocks experienced significant declines, with Find Steel Group dropping over 12% [13]. Individual Stock Highlights - AVIC Industry closed at HKD 4.09, up 6.23%, while China Shipbuilding Defense closed at HKD 10.92, up 6.02% [6]. - Pharmaceutical outsourcing stocks were active, with Zhaoyan New Drug rising over 5% [7]. - The debut of "Hushang Aunt" saw a significant increase of 40%, closing at HKD 158.4 per share, with a total market capitalization of HKD 16.225 billion [16]. - Southbound funds recorded a net sell of HKD 2.385 billion, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect seeing a net sell of HKD 1.097 billion [18]. Future Outlook - Zhejiang International expresses caution regarding the short-term fundamentals and capital flows in the Hong Kong market, while maintaining a cautiously optimistic view on the medium-term outlook [20]. - The company recommends focusing on sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, such as automotive, consumer, electronics, and technology, as well as low-valuation state-owned enterprises [20].

摘要 消费最强音--大消费 5 月联合电话会议 20250505 • ID 新消费领域中，潮玩、积木人、卡牌玩偶及 IP 周边手办等细分行业值得 关注。国漫产业及其 IP 衍生品发展乐观，多部国漫电影上映预计取得良好 票房，带动相关周边产品市场规模快速增长。AI 应用在游戏、影视动漫、 电商教育等领域打开商业化空间。 • 出口型公司关税风险释放后迎来机会，9 号公司和石头科技一季度业绩超 预期，并上调全年业绩预期。TCL 电子预计 2025 年北美市场实现盈亏平 衡，华宝新能通过产品提价对冲关税影响，销量维持高增长。内需标的如 两轮车行业和白电龙头美的一季度业绩超预期。 • 医药板块创新药发展趋势明确，口服小分子减肥药市场潜力巨大。零售行 业一季度经营承压但企业分化显著，黄金珠宝和化妆品表现超出行业平均 水平。食品饮料行业一季度营收增长放缓，但利润有所改善，白酒行业低 速增长符合预期，大众消费领域零食板块表现突出。 TikTok、Instagram 等传播媒介对中国文化的推广有关。国内游呈现城市大休 闲、乡村微度假的态势，高星级酒店订单显著增加，同程旅行数据显示四星级 酒店订单同比增长 54%，五星级酒店订单 ...

年报季报回顾及五月投资策略 20250505 摘要 • 一季度首旅酒店净利率超预期，黄山旅游客单价恢复，业绩表现较好。黄 金珠宝领域，一口价黄金、直营店及投资类黄金占比高的公司录得双位数 增长，如长荣股份。出海产业链中，绿联科技和安科创新等公司增速超预 期。 • 五一假期数据超预期，酒店行业受益明显，客单价或更高。五月投资策略 建议关注政策利好方向，包括教育体制改革（天利国际控股等）、旅游政 策刺激补贴（首旅酒店等）及新消费方向（焦点科技、老铺黄金等）。 • 2024 年食品饮料板块收入和利润增速放缓，白酒行业二季度增速预计弱 于一季度，结构分化明显。饮料和零食板块表现强势，乳制品有望进入供 需弱平衡阶段，肉制品、餐饮供应链及葡萄酒等子行业表现偏弱。 • 食品饮料投资布局应关注成长性与换季消费机会，聚焦零食及个别食品添 加剂公司（三只松鼠、百龙创园），以及饮料与啤酒领域成长性突出的公 司（东鹏饮料、燕京啤酒）。白酒龙头企业股价调整充分，大幅下跌可能 性较小。 • 美妆板块整体表现优于食品饮料，个护优于医美，医美优于化妆品。国内 品牌替代加速是化妆品行业增长的主要驱动力。家电板块受益于国补政策 和关税影响，业绩 ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 家用电器 证券研究报告 家电行业 2024 年报&25Q1 总结 行业概览：Q1 家电板块营收业绩增长提速，现金流趋势向好。24 年家用电 器（申万）板块整体营收/归母净利润分别达 15832/1199 亿元，同比 +5%/+7%；25Q1 板块整体营收/归母净利润分别达 4237/330 亿元，同比 +13%/+25%。盈利能力方面，24 年板块毛利率/归母净利率为 24.6%/7.6%， 同比-1.4/+0.1pct；25Q1 板块毛利率/归母净利率分别为 23.6%/7.8%，分别 同比-1.6/+0.7pct。现金流方面，24 年/25Q1 板块经营活动现金流净额分别 为 1664/288 亿元，分别同比-19%/+116%。 白电板块：Q1 板块营收增速环比提速，净利率优化兑现。白电核心个股 2024 年营收/归母净利润分别同比+6%/+13%；25Q1 营收/归母净利润分别同 比+16%/+28%。收入端，美的集团 25Q1 收入增速领先行业；业绩端，受益 于白电龙头综合费用率优化、数字化变革等因素带动，美的集团、海尔智 家、格力电器、海信家电 25Q1 归母净利润同比 ...

| 节前一起 | 2016/4/20 | 2017/4/19 | 2018/4/18 | 2019/4/19 | 2020/4/21 | 2021/4/21 | 2022/4/20 | 2023/4/19 | 2024/4/19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2016/5/1 | 2017/5/1 | 2018/5/1 | 2019/5/1 | 2020/5/1 | 2021/5/1 | 2022/5/1 | 2023/5/1 | 2024/5/1 | | TOP1 | 食品饮料 | 非银行金融 | 医药 | 食品饮料 | 消费者服务 | 医药 | 食品饮料 | 传媒 | 房地产 | | TOP2 | 银行 | 电子 | 煤炭 | 农林牧渔 | 银行 | 电新 | 家电 | 建筑 | 医药 | | TOP3 | 家电 | 银行 | 钢铁 | 银行 | 家电 | 有色金属 | 建筑 | 纺织服装 | 综合金融 | | TOP4 | 煤炭 | 家电 | 银行 | 非银行金融 | 食品饮料 | 消费者服务 | ...