证券研究报告 原油周报：关税政策缓和，国际油价上涨 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工研究助理：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600123070007 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年5月18日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 ◼ 【美国原油】 2 4 1. 原油周度数据简报 2. 本周石油石化板块行情回顾 3. 原油板块数据追踪 4. 成品油板块数据追踪 5. 油服板块数据追踪 6. 风险提示 目录 ◼ 1）原油价格：本周Brent/WTI原油期货周均价分别65.5/62.6美元/桶，较上周分别+3.5/+3.5美元/桶。 ◼ 2）原油库存：美国原油总库存、商业原油库存、战略原油库存、库欣原油库存分别8.4/4.4/4.0/0.2亿桶，环比+398/+ 345/+53/-107万桶。 ◼ 3）原油产量：美国原油产量为1339万桶/天，环比+2万桶/天。美国活跃原油钻机本周473台，环比-1台。美国活跃压 裂车队本周193部，环比-2部。 ◼ 4）原油需求：美国炼厂原油 ...

随着全球制造业的加速转型和升级，智能制造装备产业已成为推动经济高质量发展的关键力量。近年来，我国在智能制造领域取得了显著成 就，但面对国际竞争的新态势和产业发展的新需求，如何进一步提升智能制造装备产业的创新能力和竞争力，成为摆在我们面前的重要课题。京 津冀作为全国重要的制造业基地，具有得天独厚的产业基础和资源优势，肩负着推动智能制造装备产业高质量发展的重任。 在此背景下，以"共建产业协同新生态、共享国家战略新机遇"为主题的第二届京津冀智能制造装备协同发展大会于5月13日~14日在天津武清京津产业 新城正式召开，为智能制造装备产业的发展注入了新的活力。此次大会不仅是一次行业内的交流盛会，更是京津冀三地政府、企业、高校和科研机构共谋 发展的重要平台。通过搭建这一平台，各方能够深入交流、加强合作，共同推动智能制造装备产业迈向更高水平。 政策引领，开启协同发展新征程 大会开幕式上，工业和信息化部装备一司陆瑞阳一级调研员发表了重要讲话。他强调，要充分发挥各地的资源禀赋和比较优势，加强协同联动，强化 科技创新，利用先进的制造能力，挖掘丰富的应用场景和数据资源，为加快推进新型工业化建设制造强国做出新的更大贡献。这一讲话为京 ...

Core Insights - The event focused on the collaboration between government, industry, academia, and financial institutions to promote the commercialization of marine technology [1][3] - A supply and demand list for marine technology was released, consisting of 43 research achievements and 70 technology needs, covering eight major fields [2] Group 1: Event Overview - The event was held on May 12 in Qingdao, featuring over 100 representatives from universities, research institutions, enterprises, and financial organizations [1] - The format included an opening ceremony and sector-specific salons, emphasizing the entire chain of technology transfer [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand List - The "43+70" marine technology supply and demand list was created through submissions from marine-related entities and expert selection [2] - The list includes areas such as marine equipment, electronic information, biomedicine, and modern fisheries, along with 80 financial products to support technology transfer [2] Group 3: Key Participants and Contributions - Participants included major institutions like the Ministry of Natural Resources, China Ocean University, and leading enterprises such as Qingdao Guoxin Group and CNOOC Engineering [3] - The event facilitated a collaborative framework where universities provide research outcomes, enterprises express needs, and financial institutions offer support [3]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - US inflation continues to decline, with April CPI data showing a drop below expectations, indicating a weakening inflation risk due to tariff adjustments [2] - The recent reduction in tariffs between China and the US suggests a decrease in recession risks for the US, allowing the Federal Reserve to adopt a more patient approach regarding interest rate changes [2] Group 2: Credit Market Outlook - Despite adverse conditions from increased tariffs, the adjusted year-on-year credit growth rate for April remains around 8%, with expectations for May to show significant improvement due to supportive policies [3] Group 3: Industry Research - The demand for lightweight and barrier packaging materials is expected to grow significantly, indicating a broad market space for related companies [4] - Investment recommendations include focusing on undervalued, high-dividend companies in the oil sector and material companies benefiting from domestic substitution trends [4] Group 4: Company Research - The report covers Changguang Co., a leading domestic producer of ion exchange and adsorption resins, with projected net profits of 117 million, 196 million, and 265 million yuan for 2025-2027 [5] - The company is positioned to benefit from new production capacity and ongoing domestic substitution trends across various sectors, including electronics and renewable energy [5] Group 5: Technology Sector Insights - Nanometer AI search shows promising performance, with expectations for the company's internet commercialization business to benefit from AI upgrades [7] - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to reflect the company's ongoing investments in AI, with a projected net profit of 151 million yuan in 2027 [7] Group 6: Media and Entertainment Sector - Meitu's AIGC native applications are in the early stages, with expectations for increased profitability from subscription services, leading to revised net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [8] - Tencent Music's competitive advantages are expected to enhance its ARPPU, with revised net profit forecasts indicating growth through diversified revenue streams [9] Group 7: Automotive Technology - Horizon Robotics is expected to lead the ADAS market in 2024, with significant growth anticipated in hardware shipments due to the "smart driving equality" initiative [10] - The company is viewed as a unique investment opportunity within the context of domestic substitution and self-control trends [10] Group 8: Retail Sector Performance - JD Group reported a revenue of 301.08 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.8%, with a significant increase in net profit [11] - The company is expected to enhance business synergy through its investment in the food delivery sector, leading to revised profit forecasts for the coming years [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the machinery industry [1] Core Insights - The machinery sector underperformed in 2024 with a 5.04% increase in the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Index, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.63 percentage points and the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.3 percentage points. However, from the beginning of 2025, the index has risen by 10.44%, outperforming both major indices [2][17] - In 2024, the machinery industry's operating revenue reached CNY 19,995.67 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.55%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 3.28% to CNY 863.64 billion. In Q1 2025, operating revenue grew by 11.23% to CNY 4,540.09 billion, but net profit saw a significant decline of 30.03% [2][20][24] Summary by Sections Investment Summary - The machinery sector's performance in 2024 was below expectations, but it has shown strong recovery in 2025, leading the market [2][17] - The report suggests focusing on more proactive fiscal policies and new quality productivity for future investments [4][41] Sector Performance - The internal segmentation of the machinery industry shows significant disparities, with semiconductor equipment and motorcycle segments leading in revenue growth [3][35] - In Q1 2025, the highest revenue growth was observed in semiconductor equipment (33.38%) and motorcycles (30.74%) [37] Policy Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policies to boost engineering machinery sales, with significant government bond issuance planned [5][44] - It highlights the focus on new quality productivity, particularly in low-altitude economy, deep-sea technology, humanoid robots, and industrial mother machines [6][49] Emerging Opportunities - The low-altitude economy is expected to benefit from government support, with projections indicating substantial growth in drone deliveries and eVTOL markets by 2035 [7][50] - Deep-sea technology is crucial for energy security, with significant potential for domestic equipment replacement in deep-water oil and gas extraction [8][52] - Humanoid robots are positioned to address customization challenges in manufacturing, supported by government initiatives to expand application scenarios [9][53] - Industrial mother machines are essential for cost reduction in mass production, with a growing market for core components [10][54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the machinery industry [1] Core Insights - The machinery sector underperformed in 2024 with a 5.04% increase in the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Index, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.63 percentage points and the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.3 percentage points. However, from the beginning of 2025, the index has risen by 10.44%, outperforming both major indices [2][17] - In 2024, the machinery industry's operating revenue reached CNY 19,995.67 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.55%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 3.28% to CNY 863.64 billion. In Q1 2025, operating revenue grew by 11.23% to CNY 4,540.09 billion, but net profit saw a significant decline of 30.03% [2][20][26] Summary by Sections Investment Summary - The machinery sector's performance in 2024 was below expectations, but it has shown strong recovery in 2025, leading the market [2][17] - The report suggests focusing on more proactive fiscal policies and new quality productivity to drive growth [4][41] Sector Performance - The internal segmentation of the machinery industry shows significant disparities, with semiconductor equipment (39.08%), photovoltaic processing equipment (29.60%), and motorcycles (17.85%) leading in revenue growth for 2024. In Q1 2025, semiconductor equipment (33.38%) and motorcycles (30.74%) continued to show strong growth [3][39] - The report highlights that the machinery sector's public fund allocation increased from 2.79% in 2024 to 3.27% in Q1 2025 [30] Policy Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policies to boost engineering machinery sales, with significant government bond issuance planned for infrastructure projects [5][44] - It also suggests continuous attention to new quality productivity sectors, including low-altitude economy, deep-sea technology, humanoid robots, and industrial mother machines [6][49] Emerging Opportunities - The low-altitude economy is expected to benefit from government support, with projections indicating substantial growth in drone deliveries and eVTOL aircraft by 2035 [7][50] - Deep-sea technology is crucial for energy security, with significant potential for domestic equipment replacement in deep-water oil and gas extraction [8][52] - Humanoid robots are positioned to address customization challenges in manufacturing, supported by government initiatives to expand application scenarios [9][53] - Industrial mother machines are identified as essential for reducing costs in mass production, with a growing market for core components [10][54]

截至2025年5月14日 13:31，国证石油天然气指数(399439)上涨0.75%，成分股中远海能(600026)上涨 4.16%，招商南油(601975)上涨3.25%，招商轮船(601872)上涨2.93%，兴通股份(603209)上涨2.78%，海 油发展(600968)上涨1.78%。 费率方面，油气ETF管理费率为0.50%，托管费率为0.10%，费率在可比基金中最低。 跟踪精度方面，截至2025年5月13日，油气ETF近半年跟踪误差为0.017%，在可比基金中跟踪精度最 高。 油气ETF紧密跟踪国证石油天然气指数，国证石油天然气指数反映沪深北交易所石油天然气产业相关上 市公司的证券价格变化情况。 油气ETF(159697)，场外联接A：019827；联接C：019828；联接I：022861。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 油气ETF(159697)上涨0.72%， 冲击3连涨。截至2025年5月13日，油气ETF近1周涨幅排名同类第一。 东海证券认为，贸易或将修复，利好石油需求修复： 预计油价二季度淡季价格触底后有望修复，利好 具有上游资源的标的。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The development of offshore oil and gas field control systems is shifting towards high integration and autonomy, emphasizing the importance of automation in production management [1][3]. Group 1: Offshore Oil and Gas Field Control Systems - Automation control systems are crucial for the production management of offshore oil and gas fields, ensuring safety and efficiency [1]. - The overall control scheme for offshore facilities must prioritize personnel and equipment safety, prevent environmental pollution, and facilitate operational management [1]. - For large-scale platforms, reliable DCS/PLC control systems should be prioritized, integrating various control systems to enhance management and reduce investment [1][2]. Group 2: Control Systems for Small-Scale Platforms - Small unmanned platforms typically have simpler production processes and often utilize PCS and safety instrumented systems (SIS) [2]. - Integrated control systems (ICS) can be employed for small unmanned platforms to streamline architecture while ensuring redundancy and lowering operational costs [2]. - The system must meet specific safety and power supply requirements to maintain critical functions in extreme environments [2]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis of Control Systems - Domestic control system designs focus on overall controllability and redundancy, while international designs prioritize cost-effectiveness and inherent safety [3]. - The Zawtika gas field in Myanmar exemplifies a low-cost, high-reliability approach, sacrificing some asset protection for personnel safety [3]. - The future of offshore oil and gas field control systems will involve overcoming hardware stability challenges in harsh environments and achieving domestic control in key technology areas [3]. Group 4: Future Directions - The industry aims to achieve intelligent upgrades and autonomous breakthroughs to lower lifecycle costs while ensuring safety [3]. - There are two distinct technical routes being explored: process simulation and pipeline simulation, with a need for collaboration between the two [3].

Group 1: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on Honglu Steel Structure due to improved foreign trade environment and expected demand recovery, along with smart upgrades enhancing production and profitability [2] - China Jushi is highlighted for its large fiberglass export scale, while Puyang Refractories is noted for its new active magnesium oxide products replacing imports [2] - Hainan Huatie is recommended due to the implementation of computing power contracts and state-owned enterprise support, and Beixin Building Materials is favored for real estate chain recovery and diversified business development [2] - China Chemical is recognized for its good cash flow and rising chemical product prices, while China State Construction is recommended for real estate chain recovery and debt reduction efforts [2] Group 2: Metal Prices and Market Trends - Tungsten prices have reached a nearly 10-month high, and the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide has increased for two consecutive weeks, indicating a potential demand surge in 2025 [3] - Lithium prices have dropped below 80,000 yuan per ton, with a possibility of accelerated capacity exit; companies with cost advantages and resource expansion are recommended, including Salt Lake Industry and Tianqi Lithium [3] - The Democratic Republic of Congo's decision to suspend cobalt exports for four months may alleviate global cobalt market oversupply, with Huayou Cobalt being a key focus [3] - The suspension of the Bisie tin mine is expected to support tin price increases, with recommendations for Tin Industry Co., Xingye Silver Tin, and Huaxi Nonferrous [3] Group 3: Chemical and Agricultural Sector Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on low-valuation, high-dividend, and well-performing "three major oil companies" and oil service sectors, recommending China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC [4] - It also highlights the potential benefits for domestic semiconductor and panel material companies under the trend of domestic substitution, suggesting companies like Jingrui Electric Materials and Tongcheng New Materials [4] - The agricultural chemicals and private refining sectors are viewed positively, with recommendations for Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng [4] - The vitamin and methionine sectors are also favored, with suggestions for Andisou and Zhejiang Medicine [4] Group 4: Company-Specific Analysis - China Unicom is positioned as a digital information service leader, with its cloud business expected to become a second growth curve, supported by a stable dividend yield averaging over 6% over the past five years [5] - The company is noted for its competitive edge in data center resources as a state-owned enterprise, leading to a "buy" rating [5] - Q Technology's camera module business is highlighted for continuous product structure optimization, with an upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, maintaining a "buy" rating [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, suggesting investment opportunities in high-quality refining companies and upstream service providers [2][4]. Core Insights - The European refining sector is undergoing significant restructuring due to declining demand, aging facilities, and reduced profitability, with refining capacity decreasing by 4.2 million barrels per day since 2005, a drop of over 23% [4][5]. - The average age of European refineries is 66 years, significantly higher than the global average of 51 years, leading to increased maintenance costs and declining competitiveness [7][10]. - High natural gas prices continue to exert pressure on refinery profitability, with expectations that European gas prices will remain elevated, negatively impacting operational costs [10][12]. - Several refineries are expected to shut down in 2025, including Shell's Rheinland refinery and BP's Gelsenkirchen refinery, collectively removing 390,000 barrels per day of capacity [12][13]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - As of May 9, 2025, Brent crude futures closed at $63.91 per barrel, a week-on-week increase of 4.27%, while WTI futures rose by 4.68% to $41.02 per barrel [19]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.032 million barrels to 438 million barrels, which is 7% lower than the five-year average for this time of year [21][22]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased by 6 to 578, a year-on-year decline of 25 rigs [19][30]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products was $10.90 per barrel as of May 9, 2025, down by $6.31 from the previous week [53]. - The price spread for ethylene was $245.67 per ton, up by $30.80 from the previous week, while propylene saw a decrease in its price spread [4][50]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices increased to an average of 4551.67 RMB per ton, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 0.75% [4][50]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry remains average, with a need to monitor demand changes closely [4][50]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong due to expected improvements in cost structures and competitive positioning [4][14]. - It also highlights the potential for recovery in the valuation of companies like Satellite Chemical and Tongkun Co., given the anticipated easing of tariffs affecting polyester demand [4][14].