Group 1: General Market Overview - A - share trading volume is shrinking, and market sentiment is cooling. The market may continue to avoid risks related to Trump's tariff policies and a marginal slowdown in the economic fundamentals in early April. The bond market shows tight liquidity, with both short - and long - term bond yields rising [2][3] - The US economic data is mixed, with manufacturing PMI slightly weakening and the employment market relatively stable. The US dollar index is stable, and the macro - impact is limited [18] - The "equivalent tariff" policy in the US is about to be announced, and countries such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU have expressed their stances, with some warning of counter - measures [2] Group 2: Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices fell slightly on Tuesday. Gold and silver may face correction risks after the tariff policy is implemented due to profit - taking and a possible shift in trading logic [4][5] Group 3: Copper - US manufacturing PMI has returned to the contraction range, and the risk of stagflation is increasing. Overseas investment banks expect the benchmark tariff rate to reach 10% - 15%. The cancellation of the arbitration of the Panama copper mine may lead to its possible复产 this year, and domestic copper production is rising. Copper prices are expected to continue to adjust in the short term [6][7] Group 4: Aluminum - Macroeconomic factors dominate, and aluminum prices are under pressure. Although the fundamentals show some support on the supply side, the concerns about demand due to the US manufacturing PMI contraction and tariff uncertainty lead to a decline in market risk sentiment, and aluminum prices are oscillating [8][9] Group 5: Alumina - Alumina has sufficient supply, weak consumption elasticity, and an oversupply situation. The cost support may weaken, and it is expected to continue its weak operation [10] Group 6: Zinc - The market is focused on the tariff details. Zinc prices are under pressure due to the expected significant increase in refined zinc supply in April. However, the low - level restocking by downstream enterprises and low inventory provide some weak support, and zinc prices are expected to operate weakly [11] Group 7: Lead - The production of electrolytic lead and recycled lead in March exceeded expectations, and it is expected to increase slightly in April. The downstream battery market is in the off - season, and lead prices are expected to run weakly, with attention paid to the performance near the 40 - day moving average [12] Group 8: Tin - Due to the postponement of the tin mine复产 meeting in Myanmar and the uncertain复产 time of the Congo - Kinshasa mine, tin prices have reached new highs this year. However, the consumption growth rate cannot match the price increase, and there is a large supply - demand contradiction. Caution is needed when chasing the price [13][14] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - The supply of industrial silicon is slowly recovering, and the high inventory drags down the spot market. The demand shows a weak recovery, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [15] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - The supply of domestic lithium salts is expected to have limited growth, and the demand from cathode manufacturers is gradually expanding. However, due to the high inventory pressure, the price is oscillating at a low level [16] Group 11: Nickel - The Indonesian tax reform policy has been delayed, and potential risks remain. Although steel mills' stainless - steel production in April is still at a high level, attention should be paid to the production compliance rate under high - inventory pressure. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [18] Group 12: Crude Oil - Attention should be paid to the US - Iran negotiations. In the medium - to - long term, there is a bearish expectation due to OPEC + production increases, and oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly [19] Group 13: Steel Products - Steel futures rebounded on Tuesday, and spot trading volume increased. However, the demand growth rate is expected to slow down in April, and steel prices are expected to oscillate [20] Group 14: Iron Ore - Port inventory has increased, and overseas shipments and arrivals have also increased. The growth rate of molten iron production has slowed down, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [21][22] Group 15: Bean and Rapeseed Meal - US soybeans rose due to policy support, but domestic bean and rapeseed meal prices fell. With a large amount of Brazilian soybeans arriving, the spot price is under pressure. Both are expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the upcoming tariff policy [23][24] Group 16: Palm Oil - US biodiesel policy may increase production, boosting the price of US soybean oil and domestic palm oil. Palm oil is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the continuation of the policy's impact [25] Group 17: Metal Trading Data - Presented the closing data of major metal futures contracts on Tuesday, including prices, changes, trading volumes, and open interests [26] Group 18: Industrial Data - Provided the daily changes in industrial data of various metals from April 1 to March 31, such as warehouse receipts, inventory, spot prices, and price spreads [27][30][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Shanghai lead is "volatile", with a wide - range oscillation mainly within the range of 16,800 - 18,500 yuan/ton [3][4][71]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost support from waste batteries and demand limit the upside of lead prices. In the second quarter, lead prices may shift to wide - range oscillations. However, due to the persistent shortage of raw materials, the probability of a sharp decline in lead prices in the second quarter is low. It is advisable to adopt a low - buying strategy in the medium - term, and pay attention to the actual performance and sustainability of replacement demand and energy storage increments [4][71]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 1. Market Performance in Q1 2025 - Lead prices showed a generally bullish trend in Q1 2025, with two cycles of "sustained rise and periodic sharp decline". After the Spring Festival, lead prices soared due to expectations of demand recovery and low inventory accumulation in the industry chain, then fluctuated around 17,000 yuan/ton. Subsequently, there were sharp declines and rebounds due to various factors such as rumors of downstream production cuts, inventory accumulation, and changes in supply - demand relationships [5][8]. 2. Overseas Lead Mine Supply - In 2024, the global lead concentrate production was basically flat year - on - year. In Q1 2025, overseas disturbances decreased significantly, and production was expected to be basically flat quarter - on - quarter. In Q2 2025, there might be an obvious recovery due to the low base in the previous year. The expected overseas lead mine increment in 2025 is about 103,000 metal tons, but the improvement will be less than that of zinc [12][13][14]. 3. Domestic Lead Mine Supply - In 2024, the domestic lead mine shifted from shortage to tight balance. It is expected that the domestic lead mine increment in 2025 will be about 20,000 metal tons, mainly in the second half of the year. In Q1, the lead concentrate import window remained open, and in Q2, imports may decrease quarter - on - quarter but increase year - on - year. The TC has an expectation of increase in the medium - term, but the increase is highly limited [20][24]. 4. Domestic Primary Lead Production - Overseas primary lead production in 2024 was 1.454 million tons (YoY + 1%), and in January 2025, the global lead market had a supply surplus of 1,000 tons. Domestic primary lead production from January to February was 568,000 tons (YoY - 0.2%), and in March, production increased significantly by 40,000 - 50,000 tons. In Q1 2025, production was expected to be 913,000 tons (YoY + 5.7%). In Q2, there is an expectation of raw material inventory consumption, and it is difficult to repair smelting profits [28]. 5. Domestic Secondary Lead Production - It is estimated that the secondary lead production in Q1 2025 was 725,000 tons (YoY - 6.4%). Waste batteries are expected to be in a more severe shortage in 2025 compared to last year. With the operating loss of secondary lead smelters, there is a possibility of large - scale production cuts in the second quarter when demand weakens [36][47]. 6. Lead Demand - **Initial - stage demand**: After the Spring Festival, the start - up of battery enterprises was generally lower than expected. In April, the traditional lead - acid battery demand entered the off - season, and it is necessary to pay attention to the production arrangements of large enterprises in the future. Energy storage batteries showed obvious growth, and lead - carbon battery manufacturers had sufficient production orders [49][51]. - **Terminal demand**: In Q1, terminal demand may have reached its peak and will weaken marginally in Q2. Electric two - wheelers' replacement demand has recovered due to policies, but the lithium - for - lead substitution process may continue in the long - term. The automotive market was strong in Q1 but weakened in Q2. The communication base station equipment production decreased in 2024 and is expected to improve in 2025. Energy storage will contribute obvious increments [52][58]. - **Overseas demand**: The export of lead - acid batteries in 2024 slowed down. From January to February 2025, exports declined significantly. It is expected that the annual export growth rate of batteries will be adjusted down to - 1%. Exports to Belt and Road countries may increase quarter - on - quarter in Q2 [59]. 7. Inventory and Import - **LME inventory**: There was a concentrated delivery in the LME in mid - March, and the overseas consumption capacity of lead ingots remains weak. - **Domestic social inventory**: After the Spring Festival, the supply recovery rate exceeded demand, and the social inventory is currently at a seasonally neutral - to - high level. In April, social inventory may continue to rise in the short - term. - **Lead ingot import**: In Q1, the import profit and loss was close to the import window of crude lead, and some crude lead flowed in. It is possible that crude lead will continue to flow in Q2 [67]. 8. Second - Quarter Fundamental and Trading Logic Outlook - **Primary lead**: In Q2, primary lead smelters will continue to produce. Pay attention to the overseas mine repair progress and the limitations of raw materials and costs on smelting capacity. - **Secondary lead**: The shortage of waste batteries will continue. Secondary lead smelters may cut production after demand weakens. - **Demand**: Policy - driven replacement demand and high - speed growth in the energy storage sector will offset some of the weakening automotive demand and high - ratio - suppressed export demand. Demand may run stably in Q2. - **Trading logic**: Lead prices may shift to wide - range oscillations in Q2. It is advisable to adopt a low - buying strategy in the medium - term, and pay attention to inter - period positive spreads and internal - external reverse spreads [69].