Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The insurance and brokerage sectors have shown active performance at the beginning of the year, with insurance policy sales exceeding expectations and a notable rise in the stock market driving the insurance sector's growth. The brokerage sector benefits from increased market activity. The trend of "deposit migration" among residents is providing dual support for the non-bank financial sector, both in terms of liabilities (business growth) and assets (investment appreciation). The non-bank financial sector has been relatively stagnant in 2025, with valuations and institutional holdings still at low levels. Short-term funding disturbances are not a concern, and recent adjustments present good opportunities for positioning. The report remains optimistic about the non-bank sector's performance at the start of the year, with significant profit growth expected for brokerages and insurance companies in 2025, highlighting the importance of January's earnings forecasts and policy events as catalysts [5]. Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - In the first week of 2026, the average daily trading volume of stock funds reached 3.37 trillion, a 33% increase month-on-month and a 150% increase year-on-year, indicating a significant rise in market activity. As of January 8, 2026, the margin trading balance reached 2.62 trillion, up 44.1% from January 10, 2025. The market's "opening red" has led to the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index surpassing new highs for 2025, enhancing profitability for brokerages and securities IT companies. Regulatory policies are entering a "positive" cycle, with growth in investment banking, public funds, and overseas businesses expected to further expand, supporting the profitability of the securities industry in 2026. Current valuations and institutional holdings in the sector remain low, and the report recommends focusing on three main lines: undervalued leading brokerages such as Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan, and CICC; wealth management leaders like GF Securities and Dongfang Securities; and retail leaders benefiting from the Hainan cross-border asset management pilot, such as Guosen Securities. Beneficiary stocks include Tonghuashun [6]. Insurance Sector - The insurance sector's positive outlook is driven by both liabilities and assets. The "opening red" has catalyzed a significant rise in the insurance sector, with the individual insurance channel under pressure in 2025 but showing optimistic growth prospects for new policies in 2026 due to the transformation of dividend insurance and the integration of individual insurance reporting. The trend of deposit migration among residents is expected to sustain high growth in the bancassurance channel, while health insurance is likely to improve under policy guidance. On the asset side, stable long-term interest rates and a favorable equity market are expected to enhance net assets and profitability for insurance companies, with marginal improvements in liability costs. Over the medium to long term, the interest spread for insurance companies is expected to gradually improve, leading to a recovery in valuations. The report recommends China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, and China Life Insurance H [7]. Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - The recommended stock portfolio includes Huatai Securities, GF Securities, Guotai Junan, CICC H, China Pacific Insurance, China Life Insurance H, Ping An Insurance, CITIC Securities, Guosen Securities, and Dongfang Securities H. Beneficiary stocks include Tonghuashun and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [8].

2026 年 01 月 11 日 《公募费率改革收官, 非银板块向上突破 动能充盈——非银金融行业周报 (2025/12/29-2025/12/31)》 2026/01/05 《高弹性标签助力板块"破圈"，看好资负 两端改善趋势 -- 2026 年保险行业策略 报告》 2025/11/18 《证券行业 2026 年投资策略：权益浪潮 下的券商机遇：财富扩容，国际增效》 2025/11/17 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjg@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 万宏源研究微信服务 续看好全年非银板块价值重 非银金融行业周报（2026/1/5-2026/1/9） 本期投资提示: 时代人行业 相关研究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 苏研究招 0 券商：本周申万券商 II 指数收跌 1.90%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.89pc ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-bank financial sector [4][5][47]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in resident wealth allocation due to a low interest rate environment, leading to a reallocation of funds from traditional savings to riskier assets [1][12][19]. - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is characterized by a transition from slow outflows to a more concentrated release of funds, indicating a rapid increase in market risk appetite [2][29]. - The report anticipates that the pulse-like release of deposits will provide substantial incremental capital to the A-share and Hong Kong markets, potentially exceeding 500 billion yuan in the first quarter [3][12]. Summary by Sections Deposit Low-Interest Environment - Deposit rates have fallen below 2%, prompting residents to seek higher-yielding investments [1][17]. - The decline in deposit attractiveness is pushing savings towards wealth management products and other financial instruments [13][19]. Wealth Management Transformation - There is a notable shift in asset allocation from bank deposits to non-bank financial products, with household deposits decreasing while non-bank financial institution deposits are increasing [20][22]. - The capital market's performance since June 2025 has catalyzed this shift, with the A-share market experiencing significant gains, thereby attracting more funds [20][24]. Changes in Deposit Migration - The report notes that the upcoming maturity of a significant volume of deposits, particularly three-year fixed deposits, will lead to a concentrated outflow of funds, enhancing risk appetite [29][33]. - The breaking of the "rigid redemption" of wealth management products has led to a reassessment of risk among conservative investors, prompting a return to safer deposit options [29][39]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on non-bank financial institutions that are likely to benefit from the ongoing deposit migration trend, particularly in the insurance and brokerage sectors [3][43]. - Specific companies highlighted for their strong potential include China Life, Ping An, and major brokerage firms like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities [4][43].

华泰证券研报称，12月CPI同比较11月的0.7%进一步回升至0.8%，全年CPI同比较24年的0.2%略回落至 0%。12月食品价格延续改善，核心CPI环比回升至0.2%、同比持平于11月的1.2%，金饰在内的工业消 费品持续对核心CPI同比形成支撑。1月高频指标显示工业品价格呈现加速上涨，可能受供给侧约束、 信贷投放及财政支出"开门红"预期的提振。元旦假期出游人次同比大幅增长且半径扩大，亦有望对服务 业价格形成提振，整体价格回升的持续性仍需关注今年一季度财政扩张力度实际效果。此外，2026年以 旧换新政策对消费品的补贴支持延续、且范围有所优化，不排除服务消费有望得到额外支持，对需求侧 形成托举。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the U.S. added 50,000 non-farm jobs in December, falling short of Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 70,000, with a downward revision of 76,000 for October and November combined [1] Employment Data - The unemployment rate has decreased, but the significant downward revision in the previous two months has caused the three-month average of private sector non-farm job additions to drop to a low of 29,000 [1] - The employment diffusion index showed a decline in December compared to November, indicating a concentration of job growth in a few sectors [1] Future Outlook - The employment market is expected to gradually improve, with a focus on the "temperature difference" between economic growth and employment [1] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to pause interest rate cuts from January to May, with potential cuts of 1-2 times after the new Fed chair takes office [1] - Despite the weak employment data, there has not been further deterioration, leading to the expectation that the Fed will hold off on rate cuts in January while monitoring subsequent data [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong IPO market has significantly rebounded in 2025, with 99 companies listed by December 12, raising over 250 billion HKD, accounting for 67% of the total fundraising for Chinese stocks, marking a 10-year high [1][18][20] - The IPO success rate in Hong Kong reached 73% in 2025, with an apparent return rate of 34%, both significantly higher than previous years, although the average one-hand winning rate dropped to 20%, the lowest in nearly a decade [1][20][22] - Looking ahead to 2026, the IPO financing in Hong Kong is expected to remain active, with 314 listing applications currently in processing, and the Hang Seng Index having increased by over 30% in 2025, which historically correlates with a more than 30% explanation of the following year's IPO activity [1][23][28] Group 2 - Key characteristics of the Hong Kong IPO market include a low listing rate of 37% since 2016 despite the registration system, no market capitalization requirements for IPO participation, and a significantly higher winning rate compared to A-shares [2][41][45] - The relationship between primary market financing and secondary market performance is weakly positive, driven by common factors such as a weak US dollar and low Hibor rates, with IPO financing typically representing a small proportion of market capitalization and trading volume, limiting the "liquidity extraction effect" [2][8][72] - Historical data shows that large IPOs tend to have a 56% probability of strengthening the Hang Seng Index post-listing, with consumer discretionary and technology sector IPOs providing some uplift to their respective sectors [9][77][79] Group 3 - A multi-dimensional screening model for selecting IPOs can enhance returns, with a scoring system based on market sentiment, company fundamentals, and issuance characteristics, indicating that selecting stocks with scores above 2.5 can improve returns by approximately 15 percentage points [10][31][41] - The performance of IPOs varies significantly across sectors, with consumer goods, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals showing strong performance, while sectors like home appliances and oil and petrochemicals lag behind [10][49]

Core Insights - The banking wealth management market is experiencing a significant fee reduction trend, with over 300 fee adjustment announcements made since the beginning of January 2026 [1][2] - Notably, Ningyin Wealth Management has reduced management and sales fees to 0% for some products, indicating a competitive strategy to attract funds as a large amount of fixed deposits are set to mature in 2026 [1][2] Fee Adjustments - Multiple wealth management companies, including Ping An Wealth Management and Jiangyin Wealth Management, have announced fee reductions across various products [1][2] - Ningyin Wealth Management has specifically reduced management fees by 0.05% to 0.4%, with some products now having management fees as low as 0.01% and sales fees dropping from 0.3% and 0.4% to 0% [2][4] - The fee reduction period varies, with most discounts lasting around one year, while some products have shorter promotional periods [2] Market Context - A significant amount of fixed deposits, estimated at 32 trillion yuan, is expected to mature in 2026, creating a reallocation demand for investors as deposit rates have declined [6][7] - The trend of "deposit migration" is prompting wealth management firms to enhance their competitiveness through fee reductions and product optimization [6][7] - The wealth management market is projected to grow at a rate of 8%-12% in 2026, driven by the demand for stable investment products [7]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 在金融行业里，各大券商首席的朋友圈从来不是私人空间。 浙商证券（601878.SH）大固收组长、固收首席分析师覃汉，显然是低估了这一点。 2025年11月20日，在浙商证券举办的活动上，覃汉进行2026年债市策略展望主题发言。 来源：财通社 一条朋友圈引起巨大风波 时间回到2025年12月17日，第23届新财富最佳分析师评选结果揭晓。 在固定收益研究领域，浙商证券覃汉团队排名第五。 | | | 固定收益研究 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名次 机构 | | FIRY | 后关 | | 1 | 华泰证券 | 研究小组(张继强、仇文竹、股超、吴 宇航、陶冶、文晨昕、吴靖、朱沁宜、 | 40340.296 | | | | 方翔宇、王晓宇) | | | 2 | 华西证券 | 研究小组(刘郁、姜丹、田乐蒙、肖金 川、黄晓曦、郑日诚、黄佳苗、董远、 | 31481.596 | | | | 曾禹童、钱青静) | | | 3 | | 研究小组(黄伟平、栾强、杨雪芳、徐 | 29564.247 | | | 申万宏源证券 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities (06886) announced the issuance of its second tranche of corporate bonds aimed at professional investors, with a coupon rate of 3.48% and a maturity date of January 16, 2026 [1] Group 1 - The bond, referred to as "23 Huatai G3," has a face value of RMB 1,000 per unit [1] - The interest payment for each bond unit will be RMB 34.80, inclusive of tax [1]

Investment Ratings - Banking: Overweight (Maintain) [1] - Securities: Market Weight (Maintain) [1] - Insurance: Overweight (Maintain) [1] Core Insights - The banking sector shows a continued growth trend in social financing, with a marginal decrease in the contribution of government bonds. Corporate bonds increased by 178.8 billion yuan year-on-year, becoming the main increment in social financing. However, the demand for loans remains weak, with a year-on-year decrease of 190 billion yuan in new RMB loans in November [5][44]. - The securities industry has seen multiple core indicators reach historical highs in 2025, with total stock fund transaction volume exceeding 500 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 70%. The primary market has rebounded, with IPO and refinancing scales increasing by 95.64% and 326.17% respectively, indicating improved market liquidity and financing conditions [3][46]. - The insurance sector reported a total original premium income of 57,629 billion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 7.6%. Life insurance companies saw a 9.1% increase in premium income, while property insurance companies grew by 3.9% [4][47]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of January 8, 2026, the banking, securities, and insurance indices changed by -0.87%, +0.91%, and +1.95% respectively, while the CSI 300 index increased by +2.05%. Among 31 industries, the banking and non-banking sectors ranked 29th and 21st in performance [5][13]. Valuation Situation - As of January 8, 2026, the PB ratio for the banking sector is 0.74, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks having PB ratios of 0.79, 0.61, 0.71, and 0.63 respectively. Notably, China Merchants Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Ningbo Bank have the highest valuations at 0.96, 0.95, and 0.87 [22][24]. Recent Market Indicators - The one-year MLF operation rate is 2.0%, with LPR rates at 3.0% for one year and 3.50% for five years. The average interbank borrowing rates for one day, seven days, and fourteen days are 1.33%, 1.50%, and 1.60% respectively [29][30]. Industry News - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission has released guidelines for data classification and grading in the insurance asset management industry, effective January 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing data security management standards [39][40].