投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-02-24 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.3 | 49.0 | 49.1 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 49.4 | 50.1 | 50.2 | | 2026-02-14 | 2026/01 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 72208 | 8178 | 70546 | | 2026-02-13 | 2026/01 | M0:同比 | % | 2.7 | 10.6 | 17.2 | | 2026-02-13 | 2026/01 | M1:同比 | % | 4.9 | 6.2 | ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the gaming industry, particularly during the Chinese New Year period, highlighting a K-shaped differentiation in game performance [1][2]. Core Insights - **K-shaped Differentiation**: Low ARPU "value games" and high ARPU "luxury games" performed well, while traditional mid-ARPU "light luxury games" underperformed [1]. - **Low ARPU "Value Games"**: Primarily consist of Tencent's high DAU games and several youth-targeted games, along with casual games [2]. - **High ARPU "Luxury Games"**: Examples include certain high-profile games that benefit from celebrity endorsements, indicating strong revenue potential [2]. - **Mid ARPU "Light Luxury Games"**: Includes genres like anime games and traditional MMOs, which are currently facing challenges [2]. Market Trends - **Commercialization Strategies**: Observations indicate a shift in game monetization strategies, such as increasing top-tier item prices through skin pools while offering lower-priced bundles to enhance user experience [2]. - **Macro Consumption Environment**: The changes in game performance and monetization are attributed to the broader macroeconomic conditions affecting consumer behavior in China [2]. Future Opportunities - **Football Games**: Anticipation for a strong performance in football games due to the upcoming 2026 World Cup in North America, suggesting a cyclical peak in this segment [3]. - **PC Channel Revaluation**: There is optimism regarding the revaluation of PC channels, with specific companies like Shunwang and ShengTian being highlighted [3]. - **IAA Overseas Expansion**: While no suitable targets have been identified yet, there is ongoing exploration in the IAA overseas direction [3]. Investment Recommendations - **A-Share Recommendations**: Companies such as Kaiying (for its integration in the legendary industry chain), Huatuo (for continuous revenue growth), Shunwang (for PC channel and computing power leasing), and Perfect World (for exceeding expectations with a new game) are recommended [3]. - **H-Share Recommendations**: Tencent is highlighted for its strong performance during the holiday season, along with other companies like Xindong and Baiao, which show promising overseas and channel performance [3].

Core Insights - The "Lego New Year" special event during the Spring Festival has significantly boosted consumer spending, with a reported 8.6% increase in daily sales for key retail and catering enterprises compared to the same period in 2025 [1] Policy Effects - The Chinese government has implemented a "policy + activity" dual-drive approach to stimulate consumption, including the distribution of consumption vouchers and subsidies, benefiting consumers directly [2] - A total of 625 billion yuan has been allocated for the first batch of consumption upgrades, with an additional 20.5 billion yuan arranged for direct consumer benefits through various forms [2] - The "Lego New Year" event encompasses six areas: food, accommodation, transportation, tourism, shopping, and entertainment, creating a comprehensive consumption experience [2] Consumption Trends - The "old for new" consumption model has positively impacted consumer demand, with 28.88 million people benefiting and generating sales of 198.02 billion yuan, including 1.0053 billion yuan from new car sales [3] - The demand for smart products has surged, with a 19.7% increase in sales of smart wearable devices during the first three days of the holiday [3] - Duty-free sales in Hainan reached 970 million yuan during the first four days of the holiday, marking a 15.8% increase [3] Cultural and Tourism Consumption - The cultural and tourism market experienced a peak during the Spring Festival, with a 38% increase in air travel compared to the previous year [4] - Traditional cultural experiences remain a major draw for domestic tourism, with significant increases in hotel bookings in cities like Shantou and Fuzhou [4] - The demand for winter sports has also risen, with popular destinations for ice and snow tourism identified [4] New Consumption Scenarios - New consumption scenarios and business models have emerged, with technology enhancing traditional cultural experiences [6] - The use of AI in travel planning has become popular among younger consumers, with a significant portion of inquiries related to travel logistics [6] - Cross-border travel has seen a notable increase, with substantial growth in bookings for long-haul international trips [6] Food Safety and Consumption - The National Market Supervision Administration has intensified food safety inspections during the Spring Festival, ensuring a safe consumption environment [7] - Over 500,000 food production and operation entities have been inspected to maintain food safety standards [7]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the domestic AI computing power industry, highlighting advancements in AI video generation and the increasing demand for computing resources during peak traffic events like the Spring Festival [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - The AI video generation model Seedance 2.0, developed by ByteDance, has evolved into a "director-level" tool, capable of producing multi-scene, movie-quality videos with original audio in just 60 seconds. This advancement transforms AI video into a significant productivity tool [1][2]. - During the Spring Festival, ByteDance leveraged high visibility from the New Year's Gala to achieve peak concurrent usage, emphasizing the growing demand for computing power [1][2]. - The "Doubao" AI cloud partnership with CCTV for the Spring Festival resulted in a total of 1.9 billion AI interactions on New Year's Eve, with peak activity reaching 633 billion tokens per minute. This indicates a substantial increase in consumer engagement and computing requests [3]. - Major companies like Tencent and Alibaba are competing for consumer entry points, with Tencent distributing 1 billion yuan in red envelopes and Alibaba launching a 3 billion yuan free order campaign, which enhances the consumption ecosystem and drives up computing demand [3]. - The domestic AI landscape is characterized by a strong demand-side pull, with the native adaptation of the Zhiyuan GLM-5 model to domestic GPU ecosystems, optimizing compatibility with seven major domestic chip platforms [3]. Important but Overlooked Content - Key companies to watch in the server sector include Inspur Information, ZTE, and Unisplendour; in the networking sector, focus on Huaqin Technology, Shengke Communication, Ruijie Networks, and StarNet Ruijie; for liquid cooling and power solutions, consider Invec, Shenling Environment, and Kexin Innovation Source [4]. - A risk factor mentioned is the potential for industry progress to fall short of expectations, which could impact the overall growth and investment potential in the sector [5].

2月24日早盘，港股AI全线飘绿，权重龙头阿里巴巴、腾讯控股双双跌超2%，小米集团跌逾1%，AI应用股范式智能重挫逾9%。 港股AI核心资产——港股互联网ETF（513770）低开低走，场内价格现跌超3.5%，创近10个月新低！场内维持溢价交易，或有资金逢跌介 入。 | 分时 多日 1分 5分 ▼ | | | | | | F9 需前盘后 餐加 九转 圆线 下具 Q (?) > | | | | | | 港股互联网上下印 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.531 | | | | | 513770[港股互联网ETF] 09:50 价 0.492 涨跌 -0.018(-3.53%) 均价（ 4.12% | | | 网 | | 0 492 -0.018 -3.53% | | 513770 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | SSE CNY 9:50:28 交易中 查看L2全导 | | 十八郎 八 第 0+1 | | | | 0.52 ...

Company News - Tongguan Gold expects a net profit of approximately HKD 820 million to HKD 840 million for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 289% to 298%, primarily due to increased production and sales of gold and higher average selling prices [7] - China State Construction Industry anticipates a net profit of approximately HKD 237 million for the fiscal year 2025, down from HKD 650 million in the previous year, mainly due to a decrease in new project volume and revenue [8] - Kintor Group forecasts a net profit increase of over 165% for 2025, exceeding HKD 4.32 billion, driven by growth in investment business and profits from copper-clad laminate segments [9] - Kintor Laminates expects a net profit growth of over 80% for 2025, exceeding HKD 2.39 billion, attributed to strong demand for copper-clad laminates and upstream materials including fiberglass yarn, fiberglass cloth, and copper foil [10] - SimOne 4.0 has successfully completed systematic adaptation and deep optimization on the Moore Thread MTT S5000 GPU [11] Industry Insights - The storage market has entered a seller's market, with SK Hynix indicating that storage prices will continue to rise this year due to real demand driven by AI and limited cleanroom space, with current DRAM and NAND inventory lasting only about four weeks [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with two other departments, has issued guidelines for the wine industry aimed at quality improvement and upgrading, targeting the cultivation of over three traditional advantageous wine production areas with annual revenues exceeding RMB 100 billion by 2028 [4]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market saw a decline in AI-related stocks, with major players Alibaba and Tencent both dropping over 2%, and Xiaomi falling more than 1% [1][8] - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) opened lower and fell over 3.5%, reaching a nearly 10-month low, while maintaining a premium in trading, indicating potential buying interest [1][8] - The market is experiencing a divergence between AI newcomers and established internet giants, with consumer data showing positive trends but not significantly boosting sector performance [8][10] Group 2 - According to Everbright Securities, the Hong Kong tech sector is entering a strategic configuration zone characterized by high win rates and high odds, with signs of oversold valuations and upward trends in fundamentals [3][10] - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Internet Index, with its top ten holdings including major tech companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi, collectively accounting for over 76% of the ETF [3][10] - The Hong Kong 30 ETF (520560) is recommended for those looking to reduce volatility while investing in tech, as it includes both high-growth tech stocks and stable dividend-paying companies [11]

随后，在腾讯年会上，腾讯董事会主席马化腾直言，要靠这场活动"重现11年前微信红包的辉煌 "。 据了解，元宝红包活动核心玩法直指社交裂变：用户可一键转发红包至微信、QQ，每有1人领取，分享 者就多1次抽奖机会，上限30次。活动开始后，各大微信群被元宝红包"刷屏"。 瑞财经 王敏 2月18日，元宝官方发文表示，元宝分10亿现金红包活动告一段落，感谢大家这段时间的陪 伴，也让我们有了新突破。 元宝日活跃用户（DAU）超过5000万，月活跃用户（MAU）达到1.14亿。21天内，元宝更新迭代了159 个功能。 今年1月25日，腾讯元宝发布《关于春节分10亿现金的通知》。通知显示，为回馈广大用户，元宝将在2 月1日开启新春活动，分10亿元现金红包，单个红包金额可达万元，引发广泛关注。 ...

刘刚认为，短期看，市场或有超调，回撤后短期可能存在向上修复空间。中期看，基准情形下，我们判 断港股盈利增长3%~4%与景气结构主线情绪修复，或推动恒指中枢上行至28000~29000点左右。 2月24日，为港股市场马年第三个交易日，恒生科技指数开盘重回跌势，指数权重股腾讯控股、阿里巴 巴、百度集团、华虹半导体等股价再度调整。 自2月以来，港股尤其是恒生科技指数，走势较弱，源自三方面的变化：（1）基本面偏弱、市场担忧流 动性收紧；（2）投资者重新评估AI资本开支叙事逻辑；（3）权重股（腾讯、阿里巴巴等）短期因AI 应用现金补贴遭遇"逆风"，拖累科技板块表现。 展望港股后市，中金公司（601995）研究部董事总经理、首席海外与港股策略分析师刘刚表示，"信用 周期决定指数空间，产业趋势决定结构强弱，流动性放大波动"。 招商证券策略研究团队表示，"春节后，随着南下资金的流入，也将为港股带来流动性支持。结构上， 推荐科技（AI算力与应用）、非银（保险）与红利。"其中，恒生科技的估值底和政策底逐步夯实，但 盈利底和流动性拐点仍需确认，重点关注未来市场对恒生科技盈利预期的修正，以及美联储政策预期变 化对恒生科技的催化。一旦 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to hold at 26,000 points, influenced by the hawkish stance of the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair and a rebound in the US dollar index, which has led to profit-taking in the commodity market [2] - The Chinese GDP growth target for 2026 is anticipated to be set at 4.5%-5%, lower than the previous target of around 5% for 2025, as many provinces have lowered their GDP goals ahead of the Two Sessions [2] - Regulatory measures have been implemented to cool the market, including increased financing margin ratios on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, leading to a collective reduction in leverage across the three markets [2] Sector Focus - AI stocks are expected to perform well due to intensive upgrades in AI large models and rapid growth in the semiconductor industry [3] Corporate News - Estun (002747.SZ), a company specializing in industrial robots, has passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing hearing, targeting high-end industrial equipment markets [10] - Alibaba's Qianwen App facilitated nearly 200 million "one-sentence orders" during the Spring Festival, indicating a significant increase in user engagement [10] - Ant Group reported that its "AI Payment" and Ant Assistant App have both surpassed 100 million users, marking a significant milestone in AI-driven payment solutions [10] - JD Group reported a fourfold increase in user visits to its robot products during the Spring Festival, highlighting a growing interest in robotics and AI-related products [8][10] Economic Indicators - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,081 points, up 668 points or 2.5%, with a total market turnover of HKD 173 billion [6] - The CRB Commodity Index decreased by 0.28% year-to-date, while gold prices increased by 2.35% [5] - The vacancy rate for Grade A offices in Central Hong Kong fell to 10.1%, the lowest level since 2023, indicating a recovery in leasing demand driven by financial institutions [8][10]