房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 7 月 22 日 强于大市 房地产行业第 29 周周报（2025 年 7 月 12 日-2025 年 7 月 18 日） 本周新房二手房成交同比降幅均收窄；中央城市工作会议 将"城市更新"写入总体要求 新房成交面积环比由负转正，同比降幅收窄。二手房成交面积环比由负转正， 同比降幅收窄。新房库存面积同环比均下降。去化周期环比上涨，同比下降。 核心观点 政策 本周中央城市工作会议召开，是时隔 10 年再度召开该会议，从中央层面全方位部署城市工 作，意义重大。会议指出"城市发展正从大规模增量扩张阶段转向存量提质增效为主的阶 段"，同时提出"高质量开展城市更新"、"加快构建房地产发展新模式，稳步推进城中 村和危旧房改造"。中央将"城市更新"写入总体要求，意味着我国城市发展逐渐进入城 市更新的重要时期。我们预计未来城市更新相关政策的支持力度进一步加大。 投资建议： 二季度销售、投资、房价数据均明显走弱。我们预计，7 月的政治局会议表态或将更加 积极，带动板块在 7 月中旬开始出现的一波政策博弈的行情机会。考虑到 7 月 15 日中 央城市工作会议的相关表态，城市 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The real estate market is experiencing significant downward pressure, with new housing transaction area declining by 20% year-on-year in the first three weeks of July, and real estate development investment falling by 12.9% year-on-year in June, indicating weak sales and investment conditions [2][3][4] Core Insights and Arguments - **Land Market Activity**: Despite the overall market weakness, the land market in first and second-tier cities remains active, with good performance in land transfer fees and premium rates in June [2][4] - **Construction Data**: New construction starts have seen a narrowing decline, while the decline in completions has significantly reduced to only 1.7% year-on-year [2][4] - **Policy Expectations**: If the real estate market continues to weaken, there is an increased likelihood of policy relaxations, including easing purchase restrictions in first-tier cities, enhancing housing and land reserves, and potential reductions in mortgage rates [5][6] - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies with quality assets in core cities, such as Binjiang Group (A-shares) and China Jinmao (Hong Kong stocks), are recommended. Additionally, commercial real estate firms benefiting from new consumption trends, such as Xincheng Holdings (A-shares) and China Resources Land, are also highlighted [2][7] Additional Important Content - **Central City Work Conference**: The conference emphasized enhancing existing stock quality and efficiency, focusing on developing new models for real estate that rely on specialized industry clusters rather than traditional land finance [2][8] - **Yarlung Tsangpo River Hydropower Project**: The commencement of this project, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to benefit companies like China Power Construction and China Energy Engineering, as well as tunnel boring machine manufacturers [2][14][21] - **Potash Fertilizer Price Trends**: Domestic potash fertilizer prices have been rising, reaching 3,300 yuan per ton, indicating a tight supply-demand situation. Companies like Yara International and Dongfang Tower are noted for their potential profitability in this context [2][24][25] Future Development Focus - The real estate market will increasingly prioritize urban renewal and the construction of quality housing, with a focus on improving living standards and modernizing urban environments [11][12] - The development of urban clusters and networks is expected to enhance the growth of large cities while emphasizing the cultivation of county-level urban carriers [9][10] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment has seen a year-on-year growth of 8.9% in the first half of the year, although there has been a slight decline compared to previous periods, attributed to seasonal factors and reduced public spending [13] REITs Market Dynamics - The REITs market has shown slight growth, with new projects being launched. However, the overall market remains volatile, with some projects showing stable performance despite a slight decline in revenue for many [15]

Core Insights - The report from the China Index Academy indicates that the delivery scale of real estate companies in the first half of 2025 has peaked and is on a downward trend, with pressures on delivery easing in the industry [1][7]. Delivery Scale Rankings - In the first half of 2025, the top real estate company delivered over 50,000 units, with 15 companies delivering more than 10,000 units each [1]. - The delivery numbers for major companies have generally decreased compared to the same period last year, with companies like Greenland, Sunac, and Jianye experiencing declines of over 50% [1]. Company Performance - The report highlights that delivery capability has become a core competitive advantage for real estate companies, with some firms managing to gain market trust by enhancing quality and optimizing services despite the overall contraction in delivery scale [7]. Market Dynamics - The new housing market remains stable, supported by the combination of "good cities + good houses," although there has been a slight weakening in the market in the second quarter [5]. - The government is expected to take stronger measures to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and mitigate risks in the real estate market in the second half of the year [6]. Delivery Quality Improvement - Real estate companies are focusing on product delivery and service optimization to enhance delivery quality, utilizing methods such as open construction days and live broadcasts to build customer trust [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the real estate sector [7]. Core Viewpoints - The central urban work conference emphasized the need to steadily advance the transformation of urban villages and dilapidated housing, shifting the focus from large-scale expansion to improving existing stock [1]. - The report suggests that the current push for urban village transformation aims to enhance the quality and efficiency of existing projects rather than generating new demand, indicating a more cautious approach compared to previous years [1]. - The report recommends focusing on companies that are likely to reverse their current difficulties, such as China Vanke and New Town Holdings, as well as leading firms maintaining land acquisition intensity like China Merchants Shekou, Greentown China, Poly Developments, and Binjiang Group [1]. Sales Review (July 12-18) - A total of 11,000 units were sold across 32 monitored cities, representing a week-on-week decrease of 4.8%. Cumulatively, 452,000 units have been sold in 2025, down 5.9% year-on-year [2][13]. - In first-tier cities, 3,875 units were sold, up 28.2% week-on-week, with a cumulative total of 130,000 units sold in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [2][14]. - Second-tier cities saw sales of 5,743 units, down 20.4% week-on-week, with a cumulative total of 270,000 units sold in 2025, down 10.4% year-on-year [2][14]. - Third-tier cities recorded 1,351 units sold, up 5% week-on-week, with a cumulative total of 52,000 units sold in 2025, down 6.5% year-on-year [2][14]. Land Supply (July 7-13) - The planned construction area for residential land supply across 100 cities was 3.82 million square meters, with a cumulative supply of 11,756 million square meters in 2025, down 12.1% year-on-year [3][22]. - The average floor price for land supply across 100 cities was 4,293 yuan per square meter, with a recent four-week average of 4,846 yuan per square meter, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.3% [3][24]. Land Transactions (July 7-13) - The planned construction area for residential land transactions across 100 cities was 2.5 million square meters, with a cumulative total of 10,272 million square meters sold in 2025, up 6.9% year-on-year [4][46]. - The average transaction floor price for residential land across 100 cities was 5,933 yuan per square meter, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4% and a year-on-year decrease of 27.7% [4][48].

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The overall growth in Q2 2025 still faces bottlenecks, but the performance improvement in emerging technologies and certain cyclical sectors is becoming clearer [2][11] - The pre-announcement of mid-year reports shows a pre-joy rate of 43.7% among 1,531 disclosed companies, lower than the past three years [11][12] - The cumulative profit growth for the entire A-share market and non-financial A-shares in the first half of the year is estimated at 1.0% and 1.2% respectively [11][12] Group 2: Industry Insights - Traditional economic sectors are improving slowly, with industrial enterprises experiencing a decline in accounts receivable turnover [3][12] - Emerging technologies are the main area for growth expectations, particularly in globally competitive industries [4][13] - Certain cyclical products, such as rare earths and small metals, are seeing price increases, while sectors like steel and construction materials are showing signs of performance improvement [4][13] Group 3: Company Focus - Guangxun Technology - Guangxun Technology's mid-year performance is expected to show a net profit of 3.23 to 4.07 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 55.00% to 95.00% [6][25] - The company has completed its stock incentive plan, which is expected to motivate employees and enhance future performance growth [7][25] - The target price for Guangxun Technology is maintained at 69.70 yuan, with a current price of 49.31 yuan, indicating a potential upside [25][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector is experiencing pressure on sales year-on-year, with a total sales area of 45,851 million square meters in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 3.50% [4][8]. - In June 2025, the monthly sales area was 10,535.81 million square meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 49.37% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.46% [4][8]. - The total sales amount for the first half of 2025 was 44,241 billion yuan, down 5.50% year-on-year, with June's sales amounting to 10,150.16 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 43.85% but a year-on-year decline of 10.79% [4][8]. - The average sales price for the first half of 2025 was 9,649 yuan per square meter, down 2.07% year-on-year [4][8]. Sales Summary - National Market: The sales area in the eastern region was 20,800 million square meters, down 5.2% year-on-year; the central region saw a decline of 1.2% with a sales area of 11,926 million square meters; the western region's sales area was 11,515 million square meters, down 2.5% [8]. - Regional Sales Amount: The eastern region's sales amount was 26,945 billion yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year; the central region's sales amount was 7,988 billion yuan, also down 5.8%; the western region's sales amount was 8,163 billion yuan, down 4.30% [8]. Investment Summary - Investment in real estate development for the first half of 2025 totaled 46,658 billion yuan, down 11.20% year-on-year [14]. - In June 2025, the monthly development investment was 10,424 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 22.58% but a year-on-year decline of 12.90% [14]. - New construction area for the first half of 2025 was 30,364 million square meters, down 20.00% year-on-year, with June's new construction area at 7,180 million square meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 34.27% [17]. - The completion area for the first half of 2025 was 22,567 million square meters, down 14.80% year-on-year, with June's completion area at 4,182 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 52.77% [19]. Funding Summary - Total funds available to real estate companies in the first half of 2025 were 50,202 billion yuan, down 6.20% year-on-year [23]. - Domestic loans accounted for 8,245 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.60% [23]. - Self-raised funds were 17,544 billion yuan, down 7.20%, while personal mortgage loans were 6,847 billion yuan, down 11.40% [23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the real estate sector's configuration value is highlighted under supportive policies, with a focus on leading companies such as China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and Longfor Group [41][40]. - Recommended stocks include Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and others, with a focus on quality developers and property management firms [41][39].

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between New City Holdings and the Jiangsu Super League (苏超) aims to enhance cultural identity and stimulate regional consumption through sports events, positioning the company's shopping centers as key venues for fan engagement and community activities [2][3][4]. Group 1: Company Strategy - New City Holdings has integrated its shopping centers, specifically the 46 Wuyue Plazas across 13 cities in Jiangsu, into the local sports culture by becoming the official partner of the Jiangsu Super League [3][5]. - The company has developed a comprehensive marketing strategy that includes immersive fan experiences, such as live viewing areas and various consumer engagement activities, to enhance the shopping experience during the league [4][6]. - New City Holdings emphasizes a "five-sided management philosophy" that focuses on creating emotional connections between commercial spaces and urban culture, aiming to provide consumers with joy through offline shopping experiences [5][6]. Group 2: Market Impact - The partnership with the Jiangsu Super League has led to a significant increase in foot traffic and consumer engagement at Wuyue Plazas, showcasing the effectiveness of blending sports with commercial activities [3][4]. - The company has launched five major series of activities to cater to fan needs, including live viewing zones and promotional offers, thereby creating a one-stop experience for consumers [4][5]. - New City Holdings has also aligned its initiatives with local government policies, enhancing its brand image and social responsibility by actively participating in cultural events and community engagement [5][6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [25]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the housing price decline pressure has intensified, with new home prices in 70 major cities decreasing by 0.3% month-on-month in June 2025, and second-hand home prices dropping by 0.6% [4][7]. - The number of cities experiencing a decline in new home prices has increased, with 56 cities reporting a month-on-month decrease, up by 3 from May [4][12]. - The report anticipates that the upcoming political bureau meeting in July may lead to more positive statements, potentially creating a trading opportunity in the sector [4]. Summary by Sections Housing Price Trends - In June, new home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.3%, with Shanghai being the only city to see a price increase of 0.4% [4][9]. - Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.7%, remaining higher than the declines in second and third-tier cities [4][13]. - Second-tier cities saw new home prices remain stable with a 0.2% decline, while second-hand home prices dropped by 0.6% [4][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main lines of investment: 1. Real estate companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Binhai Group and China Resources Land [4]. 2. Smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, like Poly Real Estate Group [4]. 3. Companies with operational or strategic changes, including New Town Holdings and Longfor Group [4]. 4. Real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand housing market, such as Beike-W and Wo Ai Wo Jia [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [30]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in both sales and investment in the real estate sector, with June sales area at 105 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, marking the lowest level since 2011 [1][12]. - The total development investment in June was 1.04 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.9%, which is a slight increase in the rate of decline compared to May [1][9]. - New construction area in June was 71.8 million square meters, down 9.4% year-on-year, although the decline rate has narrowed compared to previous months [1][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Commodity Housing Sales - The sales area in June was 105 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 5.5%, which is a 2.2 percentage point increase in the decline compared to May [1]. - The sales amount for June was 1.02 trillion yuan, down 10.8% year-on-year, marking a return to double-digit negative growth after eight months [1][14]. - The average selling price of commodity housing in June was 9,634 yuan per square meter, down 5.6% year-on-year [7]. 2. Commodity Residential Inventory - The broad inventory of commodity residential properties stood at 1.63 billion square meters at the end of June, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.2% [2]. - The current housing inventory (completed but unsold) was approximately 408 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [2]. 3. Real Estate Development Investment, New Construction, and Completion - The development investment in June was 1.04 trillion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year, with residential development investment at 803.9 billion yuan, down 11.8% [6]. - New construction area in June was 71.8 million square meters, down 9.4% year-on-year, remaining at historically low levels [6][11]. - The completion area in June was 41.82 million square meters, down 1.7% year-on-year, but the decline rate has narrowed significantly [6][16]. 4. Developer Funding - In June, the total funds available to real estate companies were 99.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7% [6][16]. - The decline in sales receipts was significant, with housing sales receipts down 18.6% year-on-year [21]. - The report suggests that the second quarter saw a notable weakening in both sales and investment data, with expectations for policy support to improve market conditions [6]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on four main lines: stable fundamentals in core cities, "small but beautiful" companies with significant breakthroughs, companies with operational changes, and real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand housing market [6].

Macro Insights - June CPI data shows a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, marking the first positive reading since February 2023, while core inflation rose to 0.7%[4] - Manufacturing PMI stands at 49.7, indicating continued contraction, despite a recovery in export orders PMI to 47.7 in May-June[4] - Exports in June saw a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, maintaining a relatively high level despite a slight decline[4] Market Strategy - The 3400-point level is identified as a new starting point for a slow bull market, driven by the revaluation of Chinese assets and increasing institutional demand for high-dividend sectors[4] - The financial sector, particularly banks and brokerages, is expected to lead the market, with institutional funds gradually gaining pricing power[4] - The market is anticipated to maintain an upward trend, supported by active themes such as stablecoins and a shift towards value growth stocks[5] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to increase positions and actively participate in the bull market, focusing on value growth as a core strategy[6] - Short-term recommendations include non-bank financial sectors like insurance and brokerages, alongside technology sectors with strong growth potential[6] - The bond market is viewed as neutral to slightly bullish, with expectations of continued liquidity easing and a stable interest rate environment[6] Sector Performance - The banking sector is expected to see marginal improvements in mid-year earnings, with the banking index rising by 2.73% recently, outperforming the CSI 300 index[9] - Real estate sales are declining, with new home sales down 13.4% year-on-year in 30 cities, prompting calls for increased investment in urbanization initiatives[10] - The securities sector is becoming more active, with daily trading volumes rising from 1.22 trillion to 1.74 trillion CNY, indicating a recovery in investor confidence[11]