行业周报 | 基础化工 证券研究报告 | 行业评级 | 推荐 (维持) | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2026 年 03 月 02 日 | 相关研究 【 兴证化工 】化工行业周报 -- 一巴斯夫 调涨亚太 TDI 价格，国内 VE 厂家集体提 价（20260202-20260206）-2026.02.08 【 兴证化工 】化工行业周报― --- 伊朗局 势升温推动油价上行，TMP、对硝基氯化 苯价格上涨（20260126-20260130 ) -2026.02.03 【 兴证化工 】化工行业周报 -- -- 零碳工 厂建设指导意见发布,公募基金化工持仓 占比提升（20260119-20260123 ) -2026.01.25 分析师: 吉金 S0190522030003 jijin@xyzq.com.cn 分析师: 张勋 S0190521100002 zhangxun19@@xyzq.com.cn 分析师:刘梓涵 S0190523070006 liuzihan@xyzq.com.cn 研究助理:李思桐 lisitong@xyzq.com.cn 伊朗地缘局势升级,关注相关化工品价格波动 投资 ...

周期热点直击：PPI 转正预期下甄选"HALO"板块 20260302 摘要 PPI 转正窗口期临近，预计在 4-6 月，中枢为 5 月。伊朗局势若短期失 控推升油价，可能提前至 3-4 月。需区分油价驱动型与内生修复型转正 对市场风险偏好的不同影响。 本轮美以伊冲突规模为 1979 年来最大，有向"鱼死网破"演化迹象。 短期不确定性高，但美国不投入地面部队构成约束。美国国内民意支持 率不足 50%，或提高阶段性妥协概率。 伊朗政权更迭难度极高，风险在于陷入长期混乱。面对尾部风险事件， 市场可能沿冲突升级链条交易或寻找中长期配置机会。关注黄金、石油、 美元同涨时流动性抽紧风险，以及石油波动率下降作为介入信号。 2026 年宏观环境复杂，PPI 是决定人民币与人民币资产表现的关键变量， 关联名义增长、企业盈利与投资回报率。地产调整后，名义增长企稳通 常先于地产企稳。 CPI 转正核心驱动是供需再平衡，而非上游价格单向带动。上市公司数 据显示，投资回报率、资本周转率、产能利用率等多项指标在 2025 年 三季度见底。 Q&A 在 PPI 转正预期下，"HELLO（Halo）板块"的定义是什么，核心配置逻辑 是什么 ...

证券代码：002895 证券简称：川恒股份 公告编号：2026-006 贵州川恒化工股份有限公司 回购公司股份进展情况的公告（十二） 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 贵州川恒化工股份有限公司（以下简称公司）于 2025 年 2 月 25 日召开第四 届董事会第六次会议，2025 年 3 月 14 日召开 2025 年第一次临时股东大会，审 议通过了《回购公司股份的议案》，同意公司以集中竞价交易方式回购部分公司 股份用于注销并减少注册资本，回购金额不低于人民币 4,000 万元（含）且不超 过人民币 8,000 万元（含），回购价格不超过 24.33 元/股（未超过董事会通过回 购决议前 30 个交易日均价的 150%），回购资金为自有资金，实施期限为股东大 会审议通过回购方案之日起 12 个月内。具体回购数量、回购资金总额以回购期 限届满时实际回购股份使用的资金总额、回购股份数量为准。具体内容详见公司 于 2025 年 2 月 26 日及 3 月 15 日在信息披露媒体披露的《回购公司股份方案的 公告》（公告编号：2025-011）及《回购报告 ...

晨会速递 2026 年 3 月 2 日 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】如何看待"HALO 交易"？——《光大投资时钟》第三十篇 近期美股迎来一轮"HALO 交易"，从追逐"成长性"转向拥抱"确定性"和"稀缺 性"。在 AI 技术持续迭代趋势下，真正稀缺的是支撑算力的能源和电力体系以及维 持社会运行的基础设施。而中国拥有全球最完备的供应链体系，在新能源、电力设备、 战略金属、化工材料、造船等行业具备全球领先优势，将成为 AI 时代的硬资产。在 全球供应链重构和法币贬值背景下，其战略价值或迎来系统性重估。 【策略】节后表现值得期待——2026 年 3 月 A 股及港股月度金股组合 2026 年 3 月 A 股金股组合：中际旭创、科大讯飞、盛弘股份、杰瑞股份、南京银行、 华菱钢铁、川恒股份、中国巨石、太阳纸业、海尔智家。 2026 年 3 月港股金股组合： 鸿腾精密、汇聚科技、中石化油服。 【债券】中东局势紧张，转债如何应对？——2026 年 3 月 1 日可转债观察 中长期看 A 股市场稳中向好，短期看风险可控，近期中东局势的紧张甚至还会给一些 板块带来投资机会。例如，军工、航运、油汽、煤化工、黄金、战 ...

磷资源迎来价值重估 20260226 摘要 国防关键物资清单纳入素磷及草甘膦，叠加春耕旺季，短期内草甘膦及 其上游黄磷需求激增，利好相关企业出口，尤其是对北美地区的补库需 求。全球 70%以上的草甘膦产能集中在中国，美国对进口依赖度高，供 应链安全问题引发关注。 长期来看，行政命令提升了磷化工全产业链的战略地位，磷化工贸易品 有望受益于全球磷资源再定价。虽然磷肥出口受到严格管控，但磷酸出 口不受限制，且受益于磷肥出口管制，海外国家转而采购肥料酸再加工， 带动低浓度肥料酸出口量提升。 磷化工产业链的核心在于将磷矿石制备为磷酸，湿法磷酸工艺因成本优 势应用广泛。磷矿石终端需求中，磷肥占比约 60%，为核心基本盘；新 能源领域的需求增长迅速，磷酸铁锂的消费量大幅提升，成为重要增量 方向。 磷矿石需求增长由传统磷肥刚需和新能源增量双重驱动。2021-2024 年磷酸一铵和磷酸二铵的表观消费量复合增速约为 5%，而磷酸铁锂的 表观消费量年均复合增速超过 80%。1GWh 磷酸铁锂电池约消耗 0.9 万吨磷矿石。 Q&A 近两日磷化工板块走强的主要催化因素是什么，特朗普于 2 月 18 日签署将元 素磷及草甘膦列为国防关 ...

行 华福证券 基础化工 2026 年 03 月 01 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报：乐天百万吨级乙烯装置将关停，巴斯 夫再度调高 MDI 报价 投资要点： 本周板块行情：本周，上证综合指数上涨 1.98%，创业板指数上涨 1.05%， 沪深 300 上涨 1.08%，中信基础化工指数上涨 6.21%，申万化工指数上涨 7.15%。 化工各子行业板块涨跌幅：本周，化工板块涨跌幅前五的子行业分别为磷 肥及磷化工(18.51%)、纯碱(14.02%)、复合肥(13.17%)、钛白粉(10.63%)、有机 硅(9.76%)；化工板块涨跌幅后五的子行业分别为印染化学品(1.39%)、涂料油 墨颜料(1.81%)、改性塑料(2.13%)、轮胎(2.63%)、涤纶(2.75%)。 本周行业主要动态： 乐天百万吨级乙烯装置将关停。韩国政府 2 月 25 日宣布提供 2.1 万亿韩 元(约合人民币 100 亿元)的财政和税收支持，用于乐天化学公司和 HD 现代 化学公司在大山工业园区的重组项目。这是韩国石化行业大规模自救计划 中首个获批的重组项目。根据重组计划，乐天化学将把位于韩国忠清南道 的大仙 ...

Current Strategy Viewpoints - The capital market experienced fluctuations in early February but rebounded later in the month, primarily due to reduced trading activity before the Spring Festival and short-term policy guidance [1] - The market is expected to enter a phase of economic data and policy verification, with a seasonal increase in trading activity post-Spring Festival, laying a foundation for future market performance [1] - Upcoming economic and corporate profit data, along with the National People's Congress in March, will be crucial for setting the annual policy tone and economic targets, which are significant for the capital market [1] Sector Focus - Short-term focus on safe-haven assets and resource products due to tensions in the Middle East, including precious metals and oil sectors [2] - Long-term focus on growth and cyclical sectors, with particular attention to small-cap stocks that typically perform well in spring [2] - Key sectors to watch include humanoid robots, computing, and AI, benefiting from sustained industry enthusiasm and increased risk appetite among investors [2] Macro Overview - The upcoming National People's Congress will set the tone for the annual economy, with GDP growth targets expected to be set between 4.5% and 5% [8] - Fiscal policy is anticipated to include a deficit rate of 4.0% and new special bonds totaling 5 trillion yuan, indicating a significant increase in fiscal deficit compared to last year [8] Financial Engineering - The A-share market has seen a rise in industry crowding, particularly in media and resource sectors, with the media sector showing a crowding degree of 98.25% [12][14] - The resource sector continues to perform well, with price fluctuations leading to a decrease in crowding indicators, suggesting a potential for continued upward movement [13] Electronic Communication Industry - The upcoming GTC conference is expected to showcase new chip developments from NVIDIA, reinforcing AI as a core investment theme [24] - The demand for storage products is projected to rise significantly, driven by strong AI customer needs and price increases in the DRAM market [25] Computer Industry - The rapid iteration of domestic AI large models is expected to drive significant growth in computing power investments, with a focus on world model technology advancements [28] - The demand for AI-driven applications is anticipated to increase, leading to a surge in computing needs and infrastructure investments [29] New Energy Industry - Focus on hydrogen and ammonia projects, with government support for integrated energy bases expected to drive growth in this sector [32] - The electric power equipment sector is poised for growth due to ongoing global energy demands and potential easing of import restrictions in India [32] High-end Manufacturing Industry - The humanoid robot sector is entering a phase of mass production, with significant advancements showcased during the Spring Festival [35] - The North American AI supply chain remains robust, with ongoing demand for advanced equipment and materials expected to drive growth [36]

基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 磷化工战略重要性受到市场认知 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 我们持续看好化工各子行业景气复苏机遇，如 MDI 龙头：万华化学(600309，买 入) ；PVC 行业，相关企业包括：中泰化学(002092，未评级)、新疆天业(600075， 未评级)、氯碱化工(600618，未评级)、天原股份(002386，未评级)。炼化行业我们 推荐相关龙头企业中国石化(600028，买入)、荣盛石化(002493，买入)、恒力石化 (600346，买入)。农化产业链我们看好技术服务为导向的龙头的增长机会，植调剂 龙头国光股份(002749，买入)；复合肥龙头，相关企业新洋丰(000902，买入)、史 丹利(002588，未评级)、云图控股(002539，未评级)；农药制剂出海龙头润丰股份 (301035，买入)。以及景气度持续性受储能高速增长拉动的磷化工中相关标的包 括：川恒股份(002895，未评级)、云天化(600096，未评级)等。草酸行业中，建议 关注：华鲁恒升(600426，买入)、华谊集团(600623，买入)、万凯新材(301216，买 入)。 风险提示 ⚫ 需求不及 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Trump administration's executive order aims to safeguard the supply security of glyphosate - based herbicides and their upstream phosphate ore. It is expected to have limited short - term impact on the global phosphate ore market. [2][18] - For the Chinese domestic market, the order will support the high domestic phosphate ore prices since 2021, benefit enterprises with phosphate ore resources, and put cost pressure on downstream phosphochemical enterprises. It may also boost the short - term price of glyphosate products and help enterprises' profit recovery. [2][19] - In the long run, China's phosphochemical industry can maintain its leading position in the global phosphochemical industry chain, and the impact of this order is limited. [2][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Policy Introduction and Background - On February 18, 2026, Trump signed an executive order under the Defense Production Act of 1950 and the United States Code, designating elemental phosphorus and glyphosate - based herbicides as defense - critical materials to protect domestic production in the US. [4] - The order states that elemental phosphorus is crucial for military readiness, defense, and agricultural advantage in the US, but the US has limited domestic production capacity, with over 6,000,000 kilograms of elemental phosphorus imported annually. [5] - The order requires the Secretary of Agriculture and the Secretary of War to ensure the continuous and sufficient supply of elemental phosphorus and glyphosate - based herbicides. [5] - The US government's policy is to promote "America First" industrial strength, and this order upgrades phosphate resources and downstream products to global strategic resources. [6] 3.2 Core Motivations of the Policy - Elemental phosphorus is used in a产业链 from phosphate ore mining to fertilizers, fine chemicals, and new energy materials. Glyphosate is the world's largest herbicide, and phosphorus chemicals are also important in the semiconductor industry. [7][8] - Globally, phosphate ore resources are unevenly distributed, with Morocco and Western Sahara having the dominant position. In 2025, global phosphate ore production is expected to increase slightly compared to 2024, and the price has been stable since 2023. [8] - In China, phosphate ore reserves have a low global share and low average grade. The government has implemented policies to control mining and promote efficient use. Since 2021, domestic phosphate ore prices have been high. [10][11] - China has a large share of global phosphate ore production and glyphosate capacity, with a complete industrial chain. The US has limited domestic glyphosate production capacity and is highly dependent on imports from China. [15][17] 3.3 Core Impacts of the Policy - In the short term, the global phosphate ore market is expected to remain stable due to sufficient supply from Morocco and increasing demand. [18] - For the Chinese domestic market, the order will support high phosphate ore prices, benefit enterprises with phosphate ore resources, and put cost pressure on downstream phosphochemical enterprises. It will also boost the short - term price of glyphosate products and help enterprises' profit recovery. [19] - In the long run, the US and other countries may increase investment in phosphate ore development and phosphochemical industries. China's phosphochemical industry can maintain its leading position in the global industry chain due to government policies. [19][20]

2026 年 2 月 27 日 总量研究 节后表现值得期待 ——2026 年 3 月 A 股及港股月度金股组合 要点 2 月 A 股港股出现分化 2月A股主要指数涨多跌少，行业端分化明显，综合、建筑材料、国防军工涨幅 居前。受市场情绪积极、风险偏好维持高位等因素影响，2月（截至26日），A 股主要指数大多出现上涨，其中中证1000涨幅最大，2月份累计上涨了2.9%，而 科创50跌幅最大，累计下跌了1.6%。 2月港股市场出现回调。2月受外围市场波动、市场情绪回落等因素影响，港股 市场整体走势偏震荡。截至2026年2月26日，恒生香港35、恒生指数、恒生综合 指数、恒生中国企业指数、恒生科技的涨幅分别为3.9%、-3.7%、-3.8%、-5.4%、 -10.6%。 A股观点：表现值得期待，把握成长与顺周期两条主线 未来将进入到经济数据与政策验证阶段，市场表现值得期待。在春节之后，市场 交易热度会出现季节性回升，奠定了未来市场表现的基础。同时，未来一个月市 场将进入到密集的数据与政策验证期。1、2 月份的一系列经济金融数据将会逐 步披露，奠定市场对于全年经济的基础预期。总体来看，3 月份权益市场机会仍 然大于风险 ...