近期，中证A500相关ETF与人工智能相关ETF的活跃表现，显示出年底机构逆势调仓的方向。一方面，中证A500相关ETF合计规模突破2000亿元；另一方 面，首批双创AI ETF在发行期募集规模迅速超过300亿元。两类资产的活跃，预示了更深层的配置逻辑演化。 宏观视角看，相关市场分析指出，我国近期首提"既重视'中国经济'也重视'中国人经济'"，这是发展理念的又一次深刻变革：发展目标从侧重国内生产规 模，向同时关注国民与企业全球收入能力延伸。这一层面转向，意味着企业的价值评估需纳入其全球竞争与盈利获取能力。 从全球化特征来看，中证A500成份股中，有68.4%的公司明确开展海外业务，这一比例显著高于沪深300指数。并且，超过40%的成份股公司海外收入占比 超过20%，其中11.8%的公司海外收入占比超过50%，深度参与全球竞争。 这一理念的转变，是理解当下资金为何青睐中证A500与人工智能这两类主线的线索。其一，中证A500体现了中企全球化能力的定价：其成份股中，近七成 公司开展海外业务，超过40%的企业海外收入占比超过20%，部分公司已成为深度国际化的市场主体。该指数长期收益表现也呈现出一定的稳健特征。 其二 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 11 29 年 月 日 宏观点评 中央经济工作会议前瞻 事件：按惯例，12 月上中旬将召开政治局会议、中央经济工作会议。 核心观点：12 月政治局会议一开完、2026 年政策大方向也就定了，随 后的中央经济工作会议据此进一步部署、篇幅也更长，我们预计：应会 突出"十五五"开局之年的重要性，2026 年政策总基调应会偏积极、 偏扩张、偏刺激，应会强调"做好经济工作意义重大"、GDP 目标可能 继续定为 5%左右，应会进一步突出强产业（科技&新质生产力）、扩内 需、中央加杠杆，应会进一步布局"十五五"，也应会进一步要求抓落 实、充分调动各方积极性；具体方向上，重点关注货币政策、财政政 策、科技自立自强、"两重"、"两新"、服务消费、提升居民消费率、稳 股市、稳楼市、"投资于人"、"中国人经济"等可能的新部署。继续提 示：大环境依旧是市场的好朋友，乐观点、乘势而上、调整就是机会。 1、12 月政治局会议历来是中央经济工作会议的吹风会，且大多间隔在 一周内，次年经济工作基调和总体部署也就此确定。节奏上，每年 4/7/10/12 月的季度政治局会议（10 ...

Economic Trends - The current economic landscape in China is characterized by a significant increase in household savings, with total RMB deposits reaching 325.55 trillion, a year-on-year growth of 8%, and household deposits alone increasing by 11.39 trillion in October [2] - The phenomenon of citizens purchasing government bonds has intensified, with some bonds selling out within minutes of release, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards saving rather than spending [4] Consumer Behavior Changes - There is a notable shift in attitudes towards luxury goods, with brands like Burberry and Coach experiencing sales growth exceeding 30%, despite a general trend of increased savings [6] - The luxury market is adapting by implementing stricter quality checks and offering discounts to boost sales, reflecting a change in consumer expectations and market dynamics [7][8] Automotive Market Dynamics - Sales of imported luxury vehicles such as Mercedes-Benz and Audi have declined, while domestic brands like BYD and Geely are gaining market share, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards local products [9] Brand Perception and Global Influence - The transition from a focus on GDP growth to a more consumer-centric economy highlights the rising influence of Chinese brands globally, with a growing confidence among consumers in domestic products [11] - Chinese brands are increasingly recognized for their quality and innovation, with companies like Huawei and Xiaomi making significant inroads in international markets, showcasing the evolution of "Made in China" to a brand-driven economy [13][15]

Core Insights - Chinese enterprises are facing significant opportunities in the next five years as they expand globally, with a focus on diverse paths such as high-speed rail, new energy, and cross-border e-commerce [1][2] - The concept of "Chinese economy" is shifting towards "Chinese people economy," emphasizing the wealth created and owned by Chinese enterprises and individuals globally [2] Group 1: Opportunities for Chinese Enterprises - The "Chinese people economy" requires Chinese enterprises to actively and steadily "go out" to enhance global resource allocation capabilities and promote international cooperation in supply chains [2] - The report released at the Caixin Summit advocates for a "China + N" strategic layout, encouraging deep integration of Chinese enterprises into global markets [2][5] - Southeast Asia is emerging as a key market for Chinese brands, with a rapidly growing economy and significant opportunities in e-commerce and technology sectors [3][5] Group 2: Market Trends and Growth Areas - Southeast Asia, with a population of nearly 700 million and a GDP of $4 trillion, is expected to maintain an economic growth rate of around 7% over the next five years [5] - The e-commerce sector in Southeast Asia is experiencing rapid growth, with Chinese e-commerce platforms achieving significant profitability [5] - Future opportunities in Southeast Asia are anticipated in AI technology, new energy vehicles, and autonomous driving technology [5] Group 3: Localization Strategies - Companies face challenges such as market diversification, regulatory compliance, and local talent shortages when expanding internationally [6] - Effective localization involves adapting products to local needs, establishing local technical teams, and localizing manufacturing to reduce costs and enhance productivity [6] - The case of a Chinese company acquiring a bankrupt German firm illustrates the importance of local community engagement and stakeholder involvement in successful localization [7] Group 4: Global Integration and Resource Allocation - Lenovo exemplifies successful global operations with a high degree of localization, maintaining a significant portion of its resources and operations in China while expanding globally [9] - The company's strategy reflects the "sweet potato economy" concept, where global expansion supports and enhances domestic growth [9]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the transition from focusing on "Chinese economy" to "Chinese people economy," highlighting the need for Chinese enterprises to create value globally while leveraging their domestic strengths [1][2] Group 1: New Globalization Trends - The report introduces the "China + N" strategy, which aims to enhance the global presence of Chinese enterprises by utilizing China's manufacturing and supply chain advantages [2][3] - It advocates for a shift from product-centric to brand-centric approaches, moving from low-value to high-value offerings, and evolving from individual enterprises to an integrated industrial ecosystem [1][2] Group 2: Policy and Economic Implications - The report aligns with the "14th Five-Year Plan," which calls for expanding high-level openness and promoting win-win cooperation through dual-direction investment [3] - It suggests a structural adjustment towards balancing trade by transitioning focus from GDP to GNI, indicating a need for rational overseas layout of supply chains [3] Group 3: Case Studies and Industry Examples - Lenovo Group is highlighted as a benchmark case, demonstrating a model of "rooting in China" while establishing a global supply chain network that integrates international resources with localized operations [3][4] - Lenovo has engaged over 250 domestic suppliers in its global expansion efforts and has developed a platform to facilitate the overseas ventures of smaller enterprises [4]

Core Insights - The report titled "Developing the 'Chinese Economy' and Sharing Opportunities for High-Level Opening Up - 2025 China Enterprises' 'New Globalization' Special Report" was officially released at the 16th Caixin Summit, highlighting new trends and challenges for Chinese enterprises going global in the new globalization phase [1][3] - The report advocates for a "China + N" strategic layout for Chinese enterprises, emphasizing the need to leverage China's manufacturing and industrial chain advantages to connect with global markets and enhance value from products to brands [1][3] Policy Recommendations - The report suggests constructing a comprehensive policy support system to facilitate higher levels of openness and better international engagement for enterprises during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3][4] - It emphasizes the importance of establishing a complete overseas service system, deepening international cooperation, and upgrading the value connotation of going global [3] Enterprise Capability Development - The report recommends that Chinese enterprises focus on strategic positioning and compliance risk management when going global, promoting localized operations and ecological integration [3] - It also highlights the need for deepening ecological collaboration and value co-creation, as well as driving innovation and brand upgrades [3][4] Case Studies and Methodologies - The report, supported by the Ministry of Commerce's International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute, includes research on various scenarios and case studies from over ten local governments and enterprises, extracting methodologies for going global [4] - Notable industry benchmark cases such as Liansheng Group, Pop Mart, and MiniMax are included in the report [4]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the concept of "Chinese People Economy" as a new perspective for Chinese enterprises to navigate globalization, highlighting the shift from focusing solely on the "Chinese Economy" to a broader view that includes wealth creation by Chinese enterprises and individuals globally [1][3] - The "China+N" strategy is proposed as a means for Chinese companies to leverage their domestic advantages while expanding globally, transitioning from product-based to brand-based and from low-value to high-value operations [5][10] Group 1: New Globalization Trends - The report identifies four characteristics of new globalization: trade protectionism, geopolitical conflicts, the rise of the Global South market, and the transformation towards service-oriented and green trade [8] - It outlines four trends in Chinese enterprises going abroad: the evolution from product export to brand and ecosystem export, diversification of investment fields, the significance of the Global South markets, and the capability output of Chinese enterprises [8][10] Group 2: Policy and Strategic Recommendations - Recommendations for enhancing the "going out" strategy include establishing a comprehensive support system for overseas operations, improving compliance and risk management, and fostering local integration and ecological collaboration [5][6] - The report suggests that the "15th Five-Year Plan" should focus on expanding high-level openness and promoting a win-win cooperation model, emphasizing the need for a structural adjustment towards balanced trade [6] Group 3: Case Study of Lenovo - Lenovo is highlighted as a leading example of the "China+N" strategy, demonstrating successful global operations while maintaining a strong base in China [11][13] - The company has achieved significant growth, with a 22-fold increase in annual revenue and nearly 80% of its revenue coming from overseas markets, showcasing its leadership in the new globalization phase [13] - Lenovo's approach includes building a global supply chain network that integrates international resources with localized operations, thereby enhancing its competitiveness and market share [11][17] Group 4: Industry Collaboration and Ecosystem Development - Lenovo has facilitated the international expansion of over 250 domestic suppliers, creating a one-stop solution platform to lower the barriers for smaller enterprises to go abroad [16] - The company emphasizes the importance of community engagement and compliance in its global operations, aiming to create a symbiotic ecosystem that benefits both local markets and Chinese enterprises [14][17]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the shift from focusing on the "Chinese economy" to the "Chinese people economy," highlighting new trends and challenges for Chinese enterprises in the context of globalization [1] - It introduces the "China + N" model, which aims to enhance the global presence of Chinese companies by evolving from product-centric to brand-centric and from individual enterprises to an ecosystem approach [1] Policy Recommendations - The report suggests building a comprehensive policy support system to facilitate higher levels of openness and better international engagement for Chinese enterprises during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - It advocates for the establishment of a complete institutional guarantee and an overseas comprehensive service system to deepen international cooperation and ecological synergy [1] Enterprise Capability Development - Chinese enterprises are encouraged to focus on strategic positioning and compliance risk management when expanding internationally [1] - The report highlights the importance of local operations and ecological integration, promoting collaborative value creation and brand enhancement [1] Case Studies - Lenovo Group is identified as a leading example of the "China + N" model, showcasing a new type of globalization that emphasizes mutual benefits between China and global markets [2] - Lenovo's approach underscores the necessity for Chinese enterprises to not only "go out" but also "stay" and "integrate" into local markets, leveraging Chinese advantages for global service [2]

Core Insights - The report titled "Developing the 'Chinese Economy' and Sharing Opportunities for High-Level Opening" was released at the 16th Caixin Summit, highlighting new trends and challenges for Chinese enterprises in the context of new globalization [1][2] - It proposes a "China + N" model for Chinese companies to progress from products to brands, low value to high value, and from individual enterprises to industry chain ecosystems [1] Group 1: Characteristics of New Globalization - The report identifies four key characteristics of current "new globalization": trade protectionism, geopolitical conflicts, and the reshaping of global economic rules; a diversified and regionalized international landscape; the dual engines of service-oriented and green transformation in global trade; and the accelerated restructuring of the global economic governance system [1] Group 2: Trends in Chinese Enterprises Going Global - The report summarizes four major trends for Chinese enterprises going global: the expanding connotation of going global from "product export" to "brand export," "industrial chain export," and "ecosystem export"; diversification in foreign investment fields with manufacturing as a key focus; the "global south market," represented by the Belt and Road Initiative, emerging as a new growth engine, with Asia remaining the primary destination for Chinese foreign investment; and a shift towards "capability output" for Chinese enterprises [2] - Former Deputy Director of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, Yin Yanlin, emphasized the need to strengthen the "Chinese economy" and the "Chinese economy" by enhancing global resource allocation capabilities and promoting international cooperation in industrial and supply chains [2] Group 3: Strategic Layout of Chinese Enterprises - The report advocates for Chinese enterprises to adopt a "China + N" strategic layout, exemplified by Lenovo Group, which has 80% of its manufacturing and 70% of its R&D personnel based in China, integrating international resources with localized operations to support domestic industrial upgrades and technological innovation [2] - Lenovo Group, as a "chain leader," has facilitated over 250 domestic suppliers to go global [2]

Core Insights - The report titled "Developing the 'Chinese Economy' and Sharing Opportunities for High-Level Opening Up - 2025 China Enterprises 'New Globalization' Special Report" was officially released during the 16th Caixin Summit, highlighting new trends and challenges for Chinese enterprises in the new phase of globalization [1] - It emphasizes a shift from focusing solely on the "Chinese Economy" to incorporating the "Chinese People Economy," which considers the wealth created and owned by Chinese enterprises and individuals globally [1] Policy and Industry Recommendations - The report suggests building a comprehensive policy support system to enhance overseas operations, including establishing a robust overseas service framework and deepening international cooperation [2] - It recommends that Chinese enterprises focus on strategic positioning, compliance risk management, and local operations to achieve ecological integration and value co-creation [2] Case Studies and Performance - The "Chinese + N" strategy has been validated by leading Chinese enterprises, with Lenovo Group highlighted as a key example, achieving a 22-fold revenue growth over 20 years and operating in 180 global markets [2] - Lenovo's overseas revenue accounts for nearly 80% of its total, and it ranked first in the recently published "2025 Outbound TOP 100 Index" [2]