2026 年度展望：海外政策&海外宏观 20251125 2026 年海外政策和经济的展望是什么？ 2026 年的海外政策和经济展望主要集中在特朗普的中期选举策略上。特朗普 将围绕中期选举展开一系列政策行动，财政和货币政策将保持宽松，以营造有 利于美股和美国经济的环境，从而吸引选民支持。此外，贸易政策可能会出现 反复，尤其是关税冲突，市场情绪可能会逐步乐观，但也存在突然恶化的风险。 美国经济预计将呈现先抑后扬的态势。短期内，由于政府停摆，美国经济可能 受到阶段性冲击，但随着下半年宽财政、宽货币政策逐步出台，美国经济将在 2026 年下半年开始扩张周期，三季度触底回升，四季度通胀压力上升。 在大 类资产方面，黄金和 AI 被认为是最佳组合，各占一半。此外，股票、商品和短 期美债也将受益于宽松的财政和货币政策，而 10 年期美债则可能进入震荡状 态。美元指数全年相对看弱，但需关注欧元、日元和英镑等主要构成货币的变 化。整体来看，美联储降息预期较高，但需要关注 2026 年 3 月、4 月是否降 息，以及 5 月、6 月关税冲突再度激化时美债利率和美元指数的变化。 特朗普在 2026 年的中期选举中面临哪些挑战？ ...

美国贸易代表莱特希泽当地时间8月1日发表声明称，美国政府考虑将对价值2000亿美元中国进口商品加 征的关税从10%提高至25%。由于关税或提高，因此有关2000亿美元中国商品加税政策的公众评议的最 后期限从8月30日延长至9月5日。美国政府官员表示，他们将征求商界对10%和25%两种关税的意见。 在2日的例行记者会上，中国外交部发言人耿爽以两个"奉劝"回应美国拟提高关税的举措："第一，我们 奉劝美方端正态度，不要试图搞什么讹诈，这对中国不起作用；第二，我们奉劝美方回归理性，不要一 味意气用事，这样最终会伤害他们自己。" 企业很受伤 "10%已经是坏的，25%更加糟糕。"美国"政治"网站2日说，白宫拟增加关税令科技、化工等行业感到震 惊。美国信息技术工业委员会2日用"不负责任、适得其反"形容政府的最新举措。美国零售联合会发表 了愤怒的声明，称此轮加税是在为"鲁莽的贸易政策加倍下注"，提高关税意味着在伤口上撒盐。 事实上，对于美国政府执意发动贸易战，美国国内多个行业都怨声载道。 "我们需要一个更大的冰箱，因为特朗普的贸易战让卖不掉的肉制品堆积如山！"近日，美国《洛杉矶时 报》的报道称，美国政府发起的贸易战导致海外 ...

花旗进一步指出，随着特朗普政府逐步为2025年11月中期选举布局，并努力应对国内高利率导致的经济 压力，其政策焦点可能将更多转向压低整体商品价格。报告指出，实现上述目标最可能的路径包括推动 结束俄乌战争;倘若无法达成，华府则可能对OPEC+施加更大外交压力，要求其进一步增产以压低国际 油价。 花旗集团最新发布的研究报告指出，沙特阿拉伯及OPEC+自今年4月以来分阶段解除石油产量限制，市 场供应持续增加，这一趋势与美国总统特朗普长期推动降低能源价格的政策方向一致。在此背景下，花 旗预期全球原油市场在未来数季将维持疲软态势，布兰特原油价格在明年、至少至美国中期选举前，或 将徘徊在每桶60美元左右的水平。 报告分析，高于每桶60美元的价格区间极可能促使OPEC+继续增产，其中沙特阿拉伯料将继续扮演关 键领导角色，以稳定市场供需并避免油价再次大幅攀升。 花旗重申其长期观点认为，布兰特原油价格不太可能持续低于60美元，并指出这一价位亦常被市场视作 买入机会。理由包括：较低油价为美国进一步实施制裁、补充战略石油储备以及促使OPEC+调整产量 提供了更大政策空间，同时从中期来看，过低油价亦不符合美国维持全球能源影响力的战略 ...

Core Points - The article discusses Trump's proposal to distribute $2000 cash rewards to Americans, which is seen as a political strategy to gain votes ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [1][4][12] - The funding for this proposal is claimed to come from tariff revenues, but the actual financial implications suggest a significant shortfall [5][6][12] Group 1: Economic Implications - Trump's announcement of cash rewards is not aimed at stimulating consumption but rather at securing electoral support, particularly from discontented agricultural voters affected by the trade war [4][12] - The projected tariff revenue for 2025 is estimated at $300 billion, which is insufficient to cover the proposed $600 billion payout, leading to increased government fiscal burdens [5][8] - The U.S. federal budget deficit for the 2025 fiscal year is already at $1.8 trillion, and adding $600 billion in cash distributions would exacerbate this issue, potentially leading to inflation [8][10] Group 2: Political Strategy - Trump's focus is on creating a facade of economic prosperity to influence voter sentiment ahead of the elections, which may involve pressuring the Federal Reserve to maintain loose monetary policies [12][13] - The potential for a stock market bubble is highlighted, with risks of a significant downturn following the elections if the economic support is withdrawn [13]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a sense of uncertainty regarding valuations, with mega-cap stocks moving significantly (around 10%) following earnings reports, indicating potential frothiness in the market [2] - There are concerns about the ability to sustain growth, particularly regarding the timely implementation of electricity and the competitive landscape with China in technology advancements [2][3] - A shift from faith to skepticism has been observed in market sentiment, raising questions about the sustainability of risk tolerance, although seasonal factors may provide some support [4] Group 2 - There is a potential for a significant market pullback of 5 to 10%, as recent rallies may have been influenced by various economic news, including long-term loans and dividend checks [5] - The government is perceived to be increasing liquidity in the market, which could impact consumer behavior leading up to the midterm elections [6]

Core Viewpoint - The global market trading focus will shift from Trump's election victory to preparations for the midterm elections, with the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections directly impacting the political landscape for Trump and the Republican Party [2]. Group 1: Midterm Elections - Trump's 2026 Policy Line - The midterm elections are crucial for Trump, as they may represent the last significant electoral battle of his political career, with a high likelihood of increased political resistance if he loses [4][22]. - Historical data shows that the president's party typically loses seats in midterm elections, with an average loss of 25.7 seats in the House and 3.3 seats in the Senate over the last 20 elections [16][20]. - The significance of the midterm elections is heightened for Trump, as a defeat could severely limit his political ambitions during the final years of his presidency [21][22]. Group 2: Trade Policy - Continued Uncertainty and Conflict - Trump's trade policy is expected to remain unpredictable, with potential for renewed tariff conflicts as a means to rally voter support and shift internal political pressures outward [4][33]. - The Supreme Court's upcoming decision on Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs may lead to alternative legal strategies for implementing tariffs if the ruling is unfavorable [34][38]. - The anticipated increase in tariff revenue could help alleviate fiscal pressures and support Trump's broader economic agenda leading up to the midterm elections [47]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - More Rate Cuts and Lower Credit Quality - The new Federal Reserve chair, expected to take office in May 2026, is likely to implement more aggressive rate cuts than the market anticipates, with projections of at least four rate cuts by the end of next year [5][61]. - Lower interest rates are seen as essential for stimulating economic growth and supporting stock markets, particularly in light of the negative impacts of tariffs [49][51]. - The anticipated shift in monetary policy could lead to a weaker dollar and increased credit challenges, impacting overall market sentiment [48][56]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy - Necessity and Feasibility of Expansion - There is a pressing need for expanded fiscal policies to stimulate demand and counteract the negative effects of tariffs as the midterm elections approach [66][68]. - Increased tariff revenues and reduced fiscal pressure from lower interest rates could provide the necessary funding for expanded fiscal measures without resorting to excessive borrowing [68]. - The experience from the 2018 midterm elections suggests that failure to maintain fiscal expansion could lead to adverse market reactions [68]. Group 5: Foreign Policy - Return to "America First" and Strong Geopolitical Stance - Trump's foreign policy is expected to focus on pragmatic interest exchanges, emphasizing "America First" while managing geopolitical conflicts with limited intervention [69][79]. - Efforts to mediate conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine situation and the Middle East will continue, with a strong emphasis on leveraging economic and military pressure to achieve peace [70][73]. - The approach to foreign policy will likely involve a mix of negotiation and coercion, potentially increasing geopolitical tensions and impacting market risk appetite [79].

Core Points - California voters passed Proposition 50, which could flip up to five congressional seats for the Democratic Party, significantly increasing the chances of regaining control of the House in the 2026 midterm elections and solidifying Governor Gavin Newsom's position as a major Democratic challenger to Trump [1][5] Group 1: Proposition 50 and Its Implications - Proposition 50 received approximately 65% support from voters, allowing state legislators to redraw congressional district maps, countering Texas's Republican-led redistricting efforts [1][3] - The victory in California is seen as a critical turning point in the nationwide redistricting battle, potentially offsetting the Republican gains made in Texas [1][3] Group 2: Political Landscape and Future Elections - The current composition of the House shows Republicans holding a narrow majority of 219-213, with three seats vacant, and historical trends suggest the party of the sitting president often loses seats in midterm elections [2][5] - The new district maps could lead to the flipping of several Republican-held seats in California, with Democrats potentially controlling up to 48 of the 52 congressional seats after the 2026 elections [4][5] Group 3: Newsom's Position and Democratic Strategy - Newsom's support for Proposition 50 has reinforced his status as a leading Democratic figure and potential presidential candidate for 2028, emphasizing the urgency of protecting democracy [5] - The success of Proposition 50 aligns with other Democratic victories across the country, indicating a broader trend of Democratic mobilization and potential electoral success in upcoming elections [5]

SHMET 网讯：民主党于周二在弗吉尼亚州和新泽西州的州长选举中获胜，重新夺回了政治势头。初步迹象表明，选民对特朗普第二任期内经济状况的 不安，可能为民主党在明年赢得国会控制权开辟道路。 阿比盖尔·斯潘伯格（Abigail Spanberger）在弗吉尼亚州州长竞选中轻松获胜，以及米基·谢里尔（Mikie Sherrill）在新泽西州的胜利，共同构成了民主党 自特朗普重返白宫以来最重要的选举胜利。 与此同时，在纽约市，自称民主社会主义者的佐赫兰·马姆达尼（Zohran Mamdani）预计将当选市长。 所有主要竞选活动的提前投票率都很高，尤其是在纽约市，该市投票率预计将达到数十年来的最高水平。 就民主党自身而言，在一年前被特朗普和共和党击败后，他们仍在试图寻找出路。尽管候选人的竞选纲领大多集中在经济和生活成本等相同议题上，但 这些选举也暴露了党内的意识形态裂痕。 斯潘伯格和谢里尔被视为中左翼民主党人。但在纽约市，选民选择了马姆达尼，他在通往胜利的道路上曾欣然与商界巨头交锋。与此同时，加州州长加 文·纽森（Gavin Newsom）则将其政治前途——包括可能入主白宫的竞选——押注于推动一项投票倡议，旨在重新划分 ...

Core Insights - The recent local elections in the U.S. indicate significant victories for the Democratic Party, providing early signals for the 2026 midterm elections [1][7] - Economic pressures and living costs were the primary concerns for voters, reflecting their views on the ongoing government shutdown [1][2] Group 1: Election Results - In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger won the gubernatorial election, becoming the state's first female governor and regaining control from the Republican Party [2][4] - In New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill also secured victory in the gubernatorial race, marking the third consecutive term for Democrats in the state [2][4] - California's Proposition 50, supported by Democrats, is expected to pass, aiming to temporarily redraw congressional district maps to benefit the party in the 2026 elections [4][7] Group 2: Political Implications - The election outcomes are viewed as a "warm-up" for the 2026 midterms, offering insights into voter sentiment and potential party control of Congress [7] - The election results suggest an increased likelihood of the Democratic Party regaining control of Congress in the upcoming midterms [7] - The internal ideological divide within the Democratic Party was highlighted by the election of Zohran Mamdani as New York City's first Muslim mayor, raising concerns among financial circles about potential tax increases and regulatory risks [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The interview with Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene highlights her belief that a government "shutdown" will not benefit Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections and emphasizes the importance of addressing the healthcare crisis [1] Economic Impact - Greene points out that inflation has severely impacted Americans, making it difficult for them to make ends meet, and she shares her personal experience to illustrate that prices have not decreased [1] Social Concerns - She expresses concern for the current generation, stating that they are struggling to sustain their livelihoods and feel hopeless about the future, indicating a potential shift in priorities away from party allegiance for the sake of her children [1]