交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-10-10 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 ✸大豆观点和策略 豆一A2511：3900至4000区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收跌，油脂回落带动和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关口上方震荡等待中 美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国内大豆震荡回升，对比进口大 豆性价比优势支撑价格，但进口大豆到港仍旧偏高和新季国产大豆增产预期压制盘面， 短期受中美关税谈判后续和进口大豆到港旺季交互影响。中性。 2.基差：现货4140，基差165，升水期货。偏多 3.库存:油厂大豆库存73.2万吨，上周731.7万吨，环比增加0.21%，去年同期689.39万吨， 同比增加6.35%。偏空 4.盘面：价格在20日均线 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the US and China, highlighting Trump's strategies to pressure China into concessions during tariff negotiations [1] - The US has adopted a stance on Taiwan, which has provoked strong reactions from China, leading to demands for the US to clarify its position against Taiwan independence [1] - Trump's changes to the H-1B visa policy have adversely affected Indian tech talent, while China has seized the opportunity to attract foreign talent through its K visa program [3] Group 2 - Trump's tariffs aimed at protecting US manufacturing have led to significant challenges for American companies, causing many to reconsider domestic investments and seek opportunities abroad [5][6] - The US Commerce Department's new rules on export controls are expected to impact nearly a thousand Chinese companies, creating substantial financial losses [6] - In response to US tariffs, China has implemented a policy that offers a 20% price evaluation discount for foreign companies producing within China, enhancing their competitiveness in the local market [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of soybeans and soybean meal. For soybean meal, it is expected to return to a volatile pattern in the short - term, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 2920 and 2980. For soybeans, the A2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 3880 and 3980. The market is mainly influenced by factors such as US soybean weather, Sino - US tariff negotiations, soybean supply and demand, and livestock farming conditions [8][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, and the US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark. The US soybean weather and Sino - US trade negotiations are in a critical period. The September USDA report has a relatively neutral impact. The domestic import of soybeans remains high in September, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is at a relatively high level. The demand for soybean meal has rebounded in August and September, but the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations persists, and soybean meal has returned to an interval - oscillating pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and variable weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high volume of imported soybeans in September, and the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest with a continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [14]. - Bearish factors: a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new domestic soybeans suppresses price expectations [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the global soybean harvest area, output, and total supply have generally shown an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also fluctuated and increased [31]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the domestic soybean harvest area, output, and import volume have changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also fluctuated [32]. - **Soybean and Meal Price Data**: The report provides price data for soybean and meal futures and spot markets from September 16 to 24, 2025, showing the price trends and price differences between futures and spot markets [15][17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: The report provides warehouse receipt data for soybeans and soybean meal from September 12 to 24, 2025, showing the changes in warehouse receipts [19]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. Other Market Conditions - The export inspection of US soybeans has increased week - on - week and year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans has decreased from its high in September but has generally increased year - on - year. The soybean inventory of oil mills has reached a new high, and the soybean meal inventory has continued to increase. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have decreased from a high level. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has followed the decline of US soybeans, and the profit on the futures market has fluctuated slightly. The pig inventory has continued to rise, while the sow inventory has remained flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month. Pig prices have recently declined again, and piglet prices have remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in the country has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has slightly increased. The domestic pig - farming profit has recently deteriorated [42][44][45].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the anti - involution theme, exchange measures like position limits and fee hikes, and the delivery logic of the 2509 contract, some varieties with weak supply - demand fundamentals have seen continuous declines. In September, some varieties started to stabilize after losing the downward guidance of the 09 contract. The impact of the anti - involution theme is limited. With the National Day holiday approaching, it's advisable to control positions and operate cautiously [2][3][5]. - Anti - involution varieties are relatively strong, while the non - ferrous sector is bearish [3]. - The anti - involution is a long - term theme. After a sharp rise in July, trading volume and open interest of anti - involution varieties decreased due to position limits and fee hikes, and some varieties with weak industrial supply - demand in the real - world declined in mid - and late - August. After September 1st, these varieties showed signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing. The implementation of anti - involution policies in the industrial end is a key influencing factor. The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle led to the outflow of profit - taking funds, causing a downward adjustment in the non - ferrous sector. For agricultural products, if the Sino - US tariff negotiation progresses smoothly, domestic agricultural products will face pressure [4]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1. Capital Flow - The total capital flow is - 5.637 billion yuan, with significant outflows in non - ferrous metals (- 3.211 billion yuan) and precious metals (- 224 million yuan), and inflows in soft commodities (239 million yuan) and oils and fats (123 million yuan) [8]. 3.2. Weekly Data of Black and Non - ferrous Metals - Data such as price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, open interest percentile, open interest change percentile, and annualized basis are provided for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties. For example, iron ore has a price percentile of 21.5%, a inventory percentile of 55.0%, etc. [8] 3.3. Weekly Data of Energy and Chemicals - Similar data is presented for energy and chemical varieties. For instance, fuel oil has a price percentile of 4.9%, a inventory percentile of 36.7%, etc. [10] 3.4. Weekly Data of Agricultural Products - Data for agricultural product varieties are shown, like soybean meal with a price percentile of 6.1%, a inventory percentile of 77.4%, etc. [11] 3.5. Capital Flow Diagrams - There are diagrams showing the capital flow of black varieties, olefin varieties, polyester varieties, other chemical varieties, energy varieties, oils and fats and oilseeds, agricultural and sideline products, and non - ferrous sectors [12][16][17][19][21][22][26]

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The US soybean market is affected by factors such as weather uncertainties in the US soybean - producing areas, South American soybean harvest, and Sino - US trade relations. The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets are influenced by import volumes, demand, and price differentials, with short - term trends showing a return to a volatile pattern [8]. - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2980 - 3040 [8]. - The soybean A2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3840 - 3940 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - There is no specific content for this part in the report. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiation progress is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is awaiting the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the harvest weather in the US soybean - producing areas [12]. - The domestic import of soybeans remains at a relatively high level in August. The soybean meal market is affected by factors such as the US soybean weather, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the rise of rapeseed meal prices, showing short - term volatility [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has recently recovered, but due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, the soybean meal market returns to a range - bound pattern [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Likely Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low current soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and weather uncertainties in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: High total volume of imported soybeans in September, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the expected high - yield of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - **Likely Positive Factors**: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and the increase in domestic procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2920, with a basis of - 82, indicating a discount to futures. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory is 113.62 tons, a 5.32% increase from last week and a 15.76% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price in Jiamusi is 4140, with a basis of 245, indicating a premium to futures. The oil mill's soybean inventory is 731.7 tons, a 5% increase from last week and a 6.17% increase from the same period last year [8][10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main long positions have decreased, but there is capital inflow [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main long positions have increased, with capital inflow [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The soybean market in the US is affected by weather uncertainties in the production areas, South American soybean harvest, and China's import volume. The domestic soybean and bean meal markets are influenced by factors such as import volume, domestic demand, and production expectations. The short - term trend of domestic bean meal is in a volatile and relatively strong pattern, and the soybean and bean meal futures are expected to fluctuate within a certain range [8][10] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - No content provided on this part 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is affected by relatively positive data from the US agricultural report and is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. The domestic bean meal market is in a short - term volatile and relatively strong pattern, affected by factors such as the high arrival volume of imported soybeans in August, the price correction of rapeseed meal, and the uncertain weather in the US soybean production areas. It awaits further guidance on South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12] 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean production areas. - Bearish factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in September, South American soybean harvest, and overall good planting weather for US soybeans [13] Soybean - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans. - Bearish factors: Expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [14] 4. Fundamental Data - The daily trading data of bean meal and rapeseed meal from September 8 to September 16 show that the trading volume of bean meal fluctuates, and the price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuates slightly. The futures and spot prices of soybeans and bean meal from September 8 to September 16 show that the futures prices of soybeans and bean meal fluctuate, and the spot prices of soybeans remain stable while the spot prices of bean meal decline slightly. The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in soybean supply and demand from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [15][17][32] 5. Position Data - No content provided on this part Bean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies Bean Meal - Fundamental situation: US soybeans oscillate and rebound, while domestic bean meal oscillates and declines. It is expected to return to an oscillatory pattern in the short term. - Basis: The spot price in East China is 2950, with a basis of - 91, indicating a discount to futures. - Inventory: The oil mill's bean meal inventory is 113.62 tons, a 5.32% increase from last week and a 15.76% decrease from the same period last year. - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward. - Main position: The main long positions decrease, and funds flow out. - Expectation: The bean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060 [8] Soybean - Fundamental situation: US soybeans oscillate and rebound, while domestic soybeans oscillate and decline. It is affected by the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the peak arrival season of imported soybeans in the short term. - Basis: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of 276, indicating a premium to futures. - Inventory: The oil mill's soybean inventory is 731.7 tons, a 5% increase from last week and a 6.17% increase from the same period last year. - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward. - Main position: The main long positions decrease, and funds flow in. - Expectation: The soybean A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3900 and 4000 [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **豆粕观点**：美豆震荡收涨，等待中美谈判结果和美国大豆产区收割天气指引；国内豆粕震荡回落，受菜粕带动、需求支撑和技术性整理影响，短期或回归震荡格局；美国大豆产区天气有变数支撑美豆底部，但南美大豆丰产和美国种植天气良好压制反弹，国内采购巴西大豆到港增多，豆粕M2601预计在3000至3060区间震荡 [8] - **大豆观点**：美豆震荡收涨，等待相关指引；国内大豆窄幅震荡，受美豆带动和技术性整理影响，进口大豆到港高和新季国产大豆增产预期压制盘面，短期受中美关税谈判和进口大豆到港旺季交互影响，豆一A2511预计在3900至4000区间震荡 [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Recent News - 中美关税谈判进展短期利多美豆，美盘震荡回升，未来等待美豆生长、收割及进口大豆到港和中美关税谈判后续指引 - 国内进口大豆到港量8月维持高位，油厂豆粕库存进入偏高位，豆粕短期震荡偏强，受8月美农报利多数据和菜粕上涨影响 - 国内生猪养殖利润减少使生猪补栏预期不高，但豆粕需求近期回升支撑价格，加上中美贸易谈判不确定性，豆粕回归区间震荡格局 - 国内油厂豆粕库存继续回升，豆粕短期偏强震荡，等待南美大豆产量明确和中美关税战后续指引 [12] 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **豆粕利多因素**：进口大豆到港通关缓慢；国内油厂豆粕库存尚处低位；美国大豆产区天气仍有变数 [13] - **豆粕利空因素**：国内进口大豆到港总量9月维持高位；巴西大豆收割结束，南美大豆丰产预期持续 [13] - **大豆利多因素**：进口大豆成本支撑国内大豆盘面底部；国产大豆需求回升预期支撑国内大豆价格预期 [14] - **大豆利空因素**：巴西大豆丰产预期持续，中国增加采购巴西大豆；新季国产大豆增产压制豆类价格预期 [14] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **豆粕基差**：现货2950（华东），基差 -92，贴水期货，偏空 [8] - **豆粕库存**：油厂豆粕库存113.62万吨，上周107.88万吨，环比增加5.32%，去年同期134.88万吨，同比减少15.76%，偏多 [8] - **大豆库存**：油厂大豆库存731.7万吨，上周682.53万吨，环比增加5%，去年同期689.18万吨，同比增加6.17%，偏空 [10] - **盘面情况**：豆粕和大豆价格均在20日均线下方且方向向下，偏空 [8][10] - **主力持仓**：豆粕主力多单减少，资金流入，偏多；大豆主力多单增加，资金流入，偏多 [8][10] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the given content 3.6 Additional Information - 豆粕期货区间震荡，现货相对平稳，现货贴水小幅波动 [22] - 油厂大豆入榨量维持高位，7月豆粕产量同比增加 [24][50] - 国内中下游采购低位回升，提货量维持高位 [27] - 豆菜粕现货价差小幅波动，2601合约豆菜粕价差低位震荡 [29] - 美豆周度出口检验环比回落，同比回升 [43] - 进口大豆到港量9月高位回落，同比整体有所增长 [45] - 油厂大豆库存创出新高，豆粕库存继续增加 [46] - 油厂未执行合同低位回升，长假备货需求增多 [48] - 巴西豆进口成本跟随美豆回升，盘面利润小幅波动 [53] - 生猪存栏保持升势，母猪存栏同比持平，环比小幅回落 [55] - 生猪价格近期回归震荡，仔猪价格维持弱势 [57] - 国内大猪比例回升，生猪二次育肥成本小幅回升 [59] - 国内生猪养殖利润近期有所改善 [61]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Last week (September 8 - 12, 2025), the bond market experienced significant volatility and adjustment, showing a pattern of "falling first and then stabilizing." The 10 - year Treasury bond yield broke through the 1.8% key point, reaching a new high since April. The adjustment was mainly driven by the public - fund fee - rate new rules and the strong performance of the stock market [1]. - The current bond market is in a headwind period. Although the first pressure point of 1.8% has been broken through, in the long - term, the bond market has a certain basis for recovery as this breakthrough is mainly due to the stock market's strong sentiment and bond - fund redemption shocks rather than a fundamental shift in the fundamentals [2]. - There are four catalysts for the bond market in the fourth quarter: the possible restart of the central bank's Treasury bond trading operations, the potential Fed rate cut in September, the continued pressure on the fundamentals, and the ongoing Sino - US tariff negotiations [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Interest - rate Bond Last - week Data Review - **Funds Rate**: From September 8 - 12, the funds rate first rose and then fell, with an overall slight increase compared to the previous week. DR001 closed at 1.36% on September 12, R001 closed at 1.40%, DR007 closed at 1.46%, and FR007 closed at 1.46% [8]. - **Open - market Operations**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase net investment was 196.1 billion yuan last week, and it announced a 600 - billion - yuan outright reverse - repurchase operation on September 15 [1]. - **Sino - US Market Interest Rate Comparison**: The inversion of the Sino - US bond yield spread narrowed. The Sino - US 6 - month interest - rate spread was - 222BP, and the 2 - year/10 - year spreads were - 209BP and - 214BP respectively, with the inversion narrowing [15]. - **Term Spread**: The Chinese bond term spread remained basically unchanged, while the US bond term spread slightly decreased. The 10 - 2 - year spread of Chinese bonds was 44BP, and that of US bonds was 50BP [15]. - **Interest - rate Term Structure**: The Chinese bond yield curve remained basically unchanged, while the US bond yield curve had its middle section slightly move up [16]. 2. Real - estate High - frequency Data Tracking - **First - tier Cities**: The transaction volume of commercial housing in first - tier cities remained in a low - level volatile state. The average daily transaction area was 64,400 square meters, and the average daily number of transactions was 610 units. September 12 was the weekly high, and September 14 was the weekly low [23]. - **Top Ten Cities**: The transaction data of commercial housing in the top ten cities rebounded compared to the previous week, with an average daily transaction area of about 94,000 square meters, an increase of about 9,500 square meters per day compared to the previous week [23]. - **30 Large and Medium - sized Cities**: The commercial - housing transactions in 30 large and medium - sized cities remained at a historical low. The average daily transaction area was about 190,000 square meters, and the average daily number of transactions was about 1,728 units. September 11 was the weekly peak [23].

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In August, new social financing (社融) reached 2.57 trillion yuan, a decrease of 463 billion yuan compared to the same month last year, but an increase of 1.44 trillion yuan from July, slightly above consensus expectations[2] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock in August was 8.8%, down 0.17 percentage points from July, and slightly below the expected 8.85%[2] - New RMB loans in August amounted to 623.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 417.8 billion yuan compared to the same month last year, but an increase of 1.05 trillion yuan from July[2] Group 2: Financing Structure and Trends - The significant growth in August was seen in bill financing, indicating a recovery in short-term financing demand in the real economy[2] - Government bonds accounted for the largest share of new financing in August, with 1.37 trillion yuan, while direct financing through corporate bonds and stock financing remained relatively high[2] - The proportion of government bonds in the financing structure increased by 0.20 percentage points from July, while RMB loans, corporate bonds, and entrusted loans saw notable declines[2] Group 3: Deposit and Loan Trends - The trend of "deposit migration" continued, with new resident deposits of 110 billion yuan and new corporate deposits of 299.7 billion yuan, while non-bank deposits increased significantly by 1.18 trillion yuan compared to last year[2] - New loans from financial institutions in August totaled 590 billion yuan, a decrease of 310 billion yuan year-on-year, with corporate loans down by 250 billion yuan[2] - The increase in short-term loans and interbank loans was the only area showing growth compared to the same month last year, highlighting a shift in corporate financing behavior[2] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - The marginal improvement in corporate financing demand is attributed to ongoing US-China tariff negotiations and domestic macro policies aimed at stabilizing employment and market expectations[2] - Attention is needed on the decline in long-term loans to residents compared to last year, indicating potential challenges in consumer financing[2] - Risks include a potential second wave of global inflation, rapid economic downturns in Europe and the US, and increasing complexity in international relations[2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to enter a moderately bullish and range - bound pattern. The price of soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate between 3060 and 3120. Factors such as the uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas support the bottom of the US soybean market, but the abundant harvest of South American soybeans and the overall good planting weather in the US limit the rebound height of the US soybean market. In addition, the increase in the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans in China affects the domestic soybean meal market [8]. - The soybean market is expected to be neutral and range - bound. The price of soybean A2511 is expected to fluctuate between 3900 and 4000. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the domestic soybean market, while the expected abundant harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production limit the upward space of the market [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is affected by relatively positive data from the US Department of Agriculture report and is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark. Future trends depend on the growth and harvest of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remained high in August. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills entered a relatively high level in August. Affected by relatively positive data from the August US Department of Agriculture report and the rise of rapeseed meal, the soybean meal market is short - term moderately bullish and range - bound [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. However, the recent recovery in soybean meal demand supports the price of soybean meal. Due to the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, the soybean meal market returns to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills continues to rise. The possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas and the variables in the China - US tariff war affect the short - term moderately bullish and range - bound pattern of soybean meal. Future trends depend on the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival of imported soybeans in September, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of an abundant harvest of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of an abundant harvest of Brazilian soybeans, China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2970, with a basis of - 118, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil mills is 113.62 million tons, a 5.32% increase from last week and a 15.76% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of 255, indicating a premium to the futures. The inventory of oil mills is 731.7 million tons, a 5% increase from last week and a 6.17% increase from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The long positions of the main contract increased, and funds flowed in [10].