来源：威灵顿投资管理，Refinitiv 。数据区间：1998年1月31日至2025年8月31日。指数包括： MSCI世界指数、ICE美银全球政府债指数、ICE美银全球公司债指数、ICE美银全球高收益债指数、标 普高盛商品指数。过往业绩不代表未来表现。 三、关注图表中的偏度。具有良好回报特征的资产类别（即在上涨年份表现强劲、下跌年份相对损 失较小），如信用债，对于资产配置者尤其有价值。相比之下，大宗商品的涨跌往往更加均衡。在这种 情况下，主动管理可能有助于引入或增强投资组合的正偏度。 对于需要重点关注的领域，笔者认为，可关注延长周期的结构性增长催化剂，包括财政刺激、政策 改革以及央行潜在的降息举措。此外，关注通胀走势及跨资产相关性上升的可能性。尽管央行在缓解通 胀方面已取得实质性进展，关税也尚未引发再通胀，但仍需密切关注全球财政扩张和贸易政策等潜在催 尽管宏观和地缘政治环境充满挑战，但全球股市自年初以来依然表现强劲。从MSCI全球指数来 看，全球股票自2025年年初以来上涨约15%，延续了过去几年的强劲走势。这种持续的韧性可能会令部 分投资者感到意外，尤其是考虑到自2022年熊市结束以来全球股票的年均回报率高 ...

华尔街顶尖的股票策略师们正发现，他们对市场的预测正被一轮出乎意料的强劲涨势远远甩在身后，这迫使他们陷入了一场艰难的"追涨"竞赛， 不断上调一度看似保守的目标。 这场创纪录的股市上涨，已将标普500指数推高至比策略师平均年终预测高出近3%的水平。数据显示，目前策略师的平均预测值为6486点。只有 在2024年和1999年，看涨期权才曾远远落后于市场的实际回报。 面对市场持续不断的上涨，策略师们发现自己不得不频繁修正预测。Ed Yardeni本月早些时候已将他个人对标普500指数的年终预测从6600点上调 至6800点，并承认自己今年修改预测的次数比以往任何时候都多。他还指出，到2025年底，该指数有25%的可能性出现"融涨"行情至7000点，并 认为如果美联储继续降息，这种可能性还会增加。 Evercore ISI的首席股票和量化策略师Julian Emanuel也表达了类似的意外之情，称"让我们感到惊讶的是这轮上涨不屈不挠的性质，几乎没有任何 实质性的回调"。在将年终预测上调至6250点后，他近期表示，预计该基准指数到2026年底将攀升至7750点。周一，标普500指数收盘时已略低于 6700点。 推动这轮涨 ...

自年初美股从低谷反弹以来，卖方策略师虽多次上调股市目标位，却始终低估了本轮上涨的强度。当前 标普500指数报收6486点，较彭博追踪的行业平均年底预期高出近3%，仅2024年与1999年同期出现过如 此显著的预期与实际回报差距。这一差距凸显华尔街预言家近来多么头疼——尽管股指已把特朗普贸易 战阴霾和经济降温信号甩在身后，但超预期的盈利增长、AI科技股狂热及美联储降息前景，仍持续掩 盖了潜在风险。 亚德尼本月更将年底指数目标从6600点升至6800点，他坦言今年上修次数已创个人纪录，并认为2025年 突破7000点的"融涨"概率达25%，若美联储持续降息则可能性更高。 汇丰首席多元资产策略师马克斯.凯特纳则强调，当前美国股市正享受"两全其美"局面：经济仍在增 长，而美联储已表现出解决低收入群体与小企业经济压力的意愿，这种政策环境极为罕见，并且仍在支 持投资者采取积极的风险偏好立场。 由于市场涨得太快，高盛、德银等机构的策略师们"疲于奔命"地追赶行情：自年初特朗普关税引发大 跌、随后标普500又上演超预期反弹以来，他们已经不止一次地上调自己的预测，但还是跟不上市场实 际涨幅。 Yardeni Research创始 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin indicates that the Federal Reserve's decision to initiate monetary policy easing is likely to extend the upward cycle of the U.S. stock market [1] - Kostin expects the S&P 500 index to close at 6200 points by the end of 2025, suggesting moderate upside potential from current levels, with the possibility of higher gains if inflation continues to decline and the Fed maintains an accommodative stance [1] - Interest-sensitive sectors such as real estate, financials, and certain technology companies related to capital expenditures are expected to be the biggest beneficiaries of the Fed's easing policies [1] Group 2 - Kostin warns that the stock market's rise is not without risks, including persistent wage pressures and rising input costs that could impact corporate profit margins [2] - The upcoming mid-term elections in 2026 may introduce political uncertainties that could dampen market sentiment [2] - Goldman Sachs projects that the earnings per share (EPS) growth for S&P 500 constituents will reach 7% in both 2025 and 2026, indicating that despite current high valuations, the market is approaching reasonable value given the macroeconomic environment and corporate fundamentals [4]

行业层面，BMO分析显示，1982年以来十次降息周期中，多数板块在首次降息后一年内上涨。通信服 务、非必需消费品、工业和信息技术板块通常表现突出，能源板块则长期落后。值得注意的是，本次降 息前表现疲软的能源、医疗保健、材料和公用事业板块，未来一年或现强于平均水平的反弹。 BMO维持2025年末标普500指数6700点目标价，对应每股收益275美元、市盈率24.4倍。该机构继续建 议增持科技、金融和非必需消费品类股，减持医疗保健和必需消费品类股，具体策略涵盖美国战术股 票、股息增长及SMID投资组合。 贝尔斯基梳理1982年以来标普500指数在首次降息或恢复降息后的10个周期表现发现，8个周期实现正回 报，随后一年平均涨幅约10.4%，具体结果因经济背景差异显著，从下跌近24%到上涨超32%不等。 贝尔斯基强调，股市能否强劲上涨取决于降息能否延长经济扩张并维持企业盈利增长，若货币宽松未能 阻止经济衰退，如2001年和2007年，股市将遭受损失。 当前经济形势显示有利因素占优：尽管劳动力市场降温，但亚特兰大联储估计就业增长仍保持完好，失 业救济申请人数按历史标准稳定，GDP增长略高于趋势水平，且预计2026年前企 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson predicts that U.S. stocks will continue to rise after four consecutive months of gains, supported by the Federal Reserve's impending interest rate cuts and strong corporate earnings [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The economy is entering an "early cycle phase," characterized by sustained nominal earnings growth and declining borrowing costs [1] - There is a suggestion that small-cap stocks and other interest rate-sensitive stocks have underperformed, indicating potential for a rebound [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Wilson opposes the view that "rate cut expectations have been fully priced in," emphasizing that while a seasonal weakness period is approaching, any pullback should be viewed as a buying opportunity [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights BYD's financial performance in the first half of 2025, showcasing significant growth in both revenue and net profit [1] Group 2 - BYD reported a revenue of 371.28 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.30% [1] - The company's net profit reached 15.51 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.79% [1]

Group 1 - The company's operating revenue for the first half of 2025 is 200 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 4.11% [1] - The net profit is 19.0121 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 79.58% [1] - The company plans not to distribute cash dividends, issue bonus shares, or increase share capital from reserves [1]

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 146.858 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.26% [2] - The net profit for the same period was 5.738 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 19.37% [2]

Core Viewpoint - First Pacific Company Limited (00142.HK) reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with significant growth in profit and revenue, indicating continued operational strength and resilience in its business segments [1] Financial Performance - The group's revenue for the first half of 2025 was $5.0278 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [1] - Profit attributable to equity holders of the parent company was $391.2 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.8% [1] - Basic earnings per share were 9.19 cents, with a proposed interim dividend of 13.00 Hong Kong cents per ordinary share [1] Operational Highlights - Operating profit contribution increased by 8% to $423.2 million, while recurring profit rose by 11% to a record high of $375.4 million [1] - The revenue growth was driven by increased toll revenues and traffic volumes from MPTC in the Philippines, as well as higher average water charges from Maynilad [1] - Indofood's revenue benefited from higher sales of pasta and palm oil prices, although partially offset by reduced income from PLP due to lower average electricity prices resulting from decreased fuel costs [1]