Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-25 商品情绪偏强带动胶价上行 油脂：昨日菜油偏强，关注国内外油脂产需预期变化 蛋白粕：库存压力持续，双粕低位震荡 玉米/淀粉：降雪天气，阶段性影响产区上量 生猪：部分区域二育增加，猪价止跌反弹 天然橡胶：商品情绪偏强带动胶价上行 合成橡胶：盘面跌后反弹 棉花：反弹延续 白糖：空头获利了结，带动糖价反弹 纸浆：商品市场氛围回暖，纸浆期货维持震荡偏涨 双胶纸：震荡运行 原木：基本面边际好转，原木区间震荡 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 天然橡胶观点：商品情绪偏强带动胶价上行 逻辑：天胶昨日强势上涨，其中浅色胶RU相较于NR更强，收盘时已经突破 近3个月的震荡区间上沿。昨日偏强表现背后的原因我们认为更多来自于 宏观的带动，即整体商品资金的情绪大好。不过虽说小幅突破震荡区间， 但听闻盘后上游出货偏多，盘面上方套保压力或依旧偏大。目前来说从基 本面的角度仍属于没有强驱动的阶段，且地缘炒作我们认为暂时难以验证 实质影响，需持续关注。基本面具体来说，目前海外供应季节性上量相对 顺利，但原料价格坚挺一 ...

Oil Market - Oil prices continued to decline, with WTI January contract closing at $56.82 per barrel, down $0.62, a decrease of 1.08% [2][12] - Brent February contract closed at $60.56 per barrel, down $0.56, a decrease of 0.92% [2][12] - China's industrial crude oil production in November was 17.63 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, with an average daily production of 588,000 tons [2][12] - Kazakhstan has increased oil supplies to Kyrgyzstan and plans to resume shipments to Uzbekistan in December, which may exert pressure on oil prices [2][12] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 2.11% to 2417 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil increased by 1.08% to 3005 yuan/ton [3][13] - The market remains under pressure due to ample supply, with significant inventory accumulation in November [3][13] - Downstream demand for marine fuel remains stable, but high sulfur fuel oil margins have decreased, potentially increasing demand from refineries [3][13] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2602 rose by 0.54% to 2963 yuan/ton, supported by concerns over raw material shortages due to geopolitical tensions [4][14] - Domestic demand for asphalt shows regional disparities, with the northern market focused on storage and the southern market on actual consumption [4][14] Rubber - The main contract for Shanghai rubber RU2605 fell by 30 yuan/ton to 15200 yuan/ton, while NR rose by 30 yuan/ton to 12360 yuan/ton [5][15] - U.S. tire imports increased by 6.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with notable increases from Thailand [5][15] - Natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 0.94 million tons, indicating a rise in supply [5][15] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4696 yuan/ton, up 1.78%, while EG2601 closed at 3651 yuan/ton, up 0.66% [6][16] - PX futures closed at 6784 yuan/ton, with a narrowing basis indicating stable demand [6][16] - Ethylene glycol prices remain low, with some facilities operating at a loss, which may alleviate domestic supply pressure [6][16] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polyolefins in East China range from 6170 to 6400 yuan/ton, with production margins remaining negative [7][17] - Supply is expected to remain high, but demand is weakening, leading to increased inventory pressure [7][17] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4310 to 4420 yuan/ton [8][18] - Domestic real estate construction is expected to slow down, impacting demand for pipes and profiles [8][18] Urea - Urea futures prices showed slight fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 1629 yuan/ton, down 0.06% [9][19] - Supply levels are decreasing, with daily production at 194,600 tons, while demand remains weak [9][19] Glass - Glass futures prices showed slight increases, with the main contract closing at 950 yuan/ton, up 0.11% [10][20] - The glass market remains cautious, with production levels stable but demand showing signs of weakness [10][20]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of coal and crude oil continue to be weak. The IEA has lowered its crude oil surplus forecast for the first time since May, but the chemical industry is still dragged down by the supply side [1]. - The prices of chemical industry chain products follow the raw materials and decline. The supply pressure in the petrochemical industry remains high, and the prices of most chemical products are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [2]. - The crude oil market is affected by geopolitical premiums and supply pressures, and is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. - The asphalt market is affected by geopolitical disturbances, and the futures price rises first and then falls, with an over - valued absolute price [9]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil market has insufficient price support, and the low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil to fall [9][11]. - Most chemical products such as methanol, urea, and ethylene glycol are expected to fluctuate weakly, while PX and PTA may fluctuate within a certain range [12]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical premiums fluctuate, and supply pressure continues. - **Main Logic**: Affected by the situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela, geopolitical premiums fluctuate. The IEA and OPEC monthly reports strengthen the surplus expectation, but the IEA has lowered the surplus forecast for next year. The price of Russian oil is weakening, and the floating storage is rising. - **Outlook**: The surplus pattern continues, and the geopolitical expectation fluctuates. It is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price rises first and then falls under geopolitical disturbances. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, the probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement still exists, and the situation between the US and Venezuela heats up. The asphalt futures price rises but then falls due to the drag of black varieties. The pricing weight returns to Shandong spot. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The price support of high - sulfur fuel oil is insufficient. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, the probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement exists, and the three major drivers supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weak. The refinery processing demand is weak, and the fuel oil demand is still weak. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand are weak [9]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil to fall. - **Main Logic**: It follows the crude oil to fall, and the strengthening of natural gas boosts the demand expectation. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution. - **Outlook**: It is affected by green fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution, with low valuation and follows the crude oil to fluctuate [11]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The coastal unloading is lower than expected, and the inland supply and demand support, so methanol fluctuates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: The port inventory unexpectedly decreases, but it is still at a high level. The inland market is affected by the inflow of low - price port goods and weather disturbances. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [25]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The purchase of compound fertilizers may decrease, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is affected by factors such as the suspension of the promotion of off - season storage and the possible decrease in compound fertilizer procurement. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction, off - season storage progress, and compound fertilizer factory operation [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The market pessimism spreads, and the existing device maintenance cannot reverse the inventory accumulation pattern. - **Main Logic**: The price continues to fall, and the current device maintenance cannot change the situation of supply exceeding demand. - **Outlook**: The long - term inventory accumulation pressure is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in a low - level range [18][19]. PX - **Viewpoint**: The tight spot of PTA supports the negotiation of PX, but the upstream cost support is poor and lacks substantial benefits. - **Main Logic**: The international oil price is weak, and the PX price rises and then回调. The market has a strong expectation, but the upstream cost support is insufficient. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and the PXN is expected to be in the range of [260, 300] [12]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: The spot circulation is tight, and the basis remains strong. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost rises and then falls, and the PTA price follows the upstream. The downstream polyester load decreases slightly, and the spot circulation is tight. - **Outlook**: The price follows the cost to fluctuate and consolidate, and the processing fee runs within a range. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long TA02 and shorting PF02 [12]. Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The price fluctuates within a day due to repeated maintenance news. - **Main Logic**: The recent import volume of pure benzene arrives at the port in large quantities, and the port inventory accumulates rapidly. However, it is expected to improve marginally in Q1 2026. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate [14][16]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The price fluctuates within a day due to repeated maintenance news, with a slightly stronger trend. - **Main Logic**: The short - term trading is mainly around liquidity issues. The port inventory is depleted, and the tradable volume is not abundant. In Q1 2026, the pure benzene pattern improves, which supports styrene. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and attention should be paid to the market sentiment improvement in early 2026 [17]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The price is dragged down by the ethylene glycol cost, and the processing fee is under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost is divided, the PTA price is briefly supported, but the ethylene glycol price continues to fall, dragging down the polyester staple fiber price. - **Outlook**: The price follows the upstream to fluctuate, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed [21][22]. Polyester Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: The upstream polyester raw material costs are divided. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures fall weakly, the PTA follows the cost to rise, but the ethylene glycol price continues to fall, dragging down the overall valuation of polyester bottle chips. - **Outlook**: The absolute value follows the raw materials to fluctuate, and the processing fee has enhanced support below [23]. LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: The raw material and maintenance support are still limited, and the price fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The coal price is weak, the oil price fluctuates weakly, and the plastic's own fundamental support is limited. The downstream demand enters the off - season. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [29]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The coal price is still weak, and the price fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The coal price is weak, the oil price fluctuates downwards, and the PP downstream is in the off - season, with a cautious purchasing attitude. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [30]. PL - **Viewpoint**: The spot is strong, but the downstream powder still has a drag, and it fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, but the downstream PP price is weak, dragging down PL through the decline in powder production. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [31]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: The production reduction scale is limited, and the price decline is cautious. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the market's policy expectation cools down. At the micro level, the marginal enterprise production decreases, but the surplus expectation is not reversed. - **Outlook**: The price decline space is cautious [33]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The upstream has not reduced production, and the price is weakly cautious. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the market's policy expectation cools down. At the micro level, the supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, and the upstream profit is close to the break - even point, but there is no production reduction yet. - **Outlook**: The price decline space is cautious [33][34]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring (1) Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, and PP have different degrees of change [36]. - **Basis and warehouse receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and PX are provided [37]. - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of various varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, and MA - UR are provided [39]. (2) Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report provides a framework for monitoring the basis and spreads of multiple chemical products such as methanol, urea, and styrene, but specific data is not fully presented. (3) Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all show a decline [281]. - **Energy Index**: The energy index on December 11, 2025, has a daily decline of 1.00%, a 5 - day decline of 2.66%, a 1 - month decline of 3.14%, and a year - to - date decline of 10.67% [283].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [4]. - The decline in crude oil and coal prices has weakened the cost - end of the chemical industry, leading many chemical varieties into a full - line loss situation. There is a possibility that some large - scale petrochemical enterprises will conduct unexpected over - maintenance during the 2026 maintenance season. Therefore, it is risky to continue to chase the decline in the chemical industry, and it may be safer for short - sellers to take profits [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists. The EIA has further raised the estimated U.S. crude oil production, and the refining rate has rebounded. The inventory of refined oil products has continued to accumulate, and the total inventory of crude oil and refined oil products has decreased. The production trend of OPEC + is not obvious, and the effective supply of Russian oil has decreased marginally. The market is in a long - short game and is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt futures price is weakly volatile. The price has fallen due to the increase in OPEC + production and the possible Russia - Ukraine agreement. The market expects the end - of - year real estate policy to boost the real estate and infrastructure sectors. The pricing of asphalt futures has returned to Shandong spot, and the high valuation is being revised down. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The support for the high - sulfur fuel oil futures price is insufficient. The increase in OPEC + production, the possible Russia - Ukraine agreement, and the entry into the off - season have led to a decrease in demand. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: It follows the decline in crude oil. The recent strengthening of natural gas has boosted the demand expectation, but it is also facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic supply pressure of refined oil products may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [10]. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: Cost support is poor, and the increase is hindered without further positive support in the market. The international oil price is weakly sorted out, and the naphtha price has followed the decline of the upstream. The PX price has also fallen, and the market's expectation for next year's supply - demand is good, so the adjustment range is limited [12]. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: The upstream cost support is insufficient, and the price follows the decline, while the basis is relatively strong. The upstream cost support is weak, and there is no further positive support in the polyester industry chain. The PTA fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the spot is slightly tight [12][13]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: Affected by the maintenance news, the price fluctuates. In reality, the import volume has arrived at the port in large quantities, the port inventory has accumulated rapidly, and the downstream demand is weak. In the future, the fundamentals may improve marginally, and the inventory inflection point is approaching [14][15]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Affected by the maintenance news, the price falls during the day. In the short term, the trading is mainly around liquidity issues. In the future, the improvement of the pure benzene pattern will support styrene, but it will also enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period [17]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: Pay attention to the device disturbance pattern when the price is continuously at a low level. After continuous decline, the price is in a narrow - range sorting trend. With the price at a low level, the supply side may have a new reduction, and the market sentiment can be moderately restored [18][19]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The price is dragged down by the ethylene glycol cost, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream polyester raw material price fluctuates and falls, and the short - fiber production and sales are average, and the inventory slightly increases [20][22]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: The upstream cost support weakens, and the price center moves down. The continuous decline of the upstream raw material price has weakened the support for polyester bottle chips, and the price has fallen to a low level, resulting in good trading volume [23]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: The unloading in coastal areas is less than expected, and the supply - demand in the inland area provides support, so methanol fluctuates and sorts out. The inventory in the port area has decreased, mainly due to the back - flowing of goods to the inland area and the less - than - expected unloading of arriving goods. The short - term near - end is still restricted by factors such as high inventory and concentrated import arrivals [26][27]. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: Both support and suppression are significant, and the market fluctuates and sorts out. The daily output of urea is at a relatively high level, and the demand side is supported by off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export port collection. The inventory of enterprises continues to decline, and the market is in a stalemate [27][28]. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: The maintenance support is still limited, and the expectation of real estate policy is released during the session, so the plastic fluctuates. The oil price fluctuates, the coal price is weak, the real estate policy expectation is slightly released, the self - fundamental support is limited, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [31]. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: The expectation of real estate policy is released during the session, and PP fluctuates. The real estate policy expectation is released, the oil price fluctuates, the coal price is weak, the PDH profit is still under pressure, and the PP downstream is in the off - season, with a cautious purchasing attitude [32]. 3.1.16 PL (Propylene) - **View**: The spot is strong, but the downstream powder still has a drag, so PL fluctuates. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, the downstream buying is cautious, and the weak downstream PP price drags down PL through the low powder start - up rate [33]. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: Marginal enterprises reduce production, and PVC takes profits when the price is low. The market's expectation for policies has cooled down. Marginal enterprises have reduced production, but the over - supply expectation has not been reversed. The downstream start - up is seasonally weak, and the export order is light [34]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The price of liquid chlorine drops rapidly, and short positions in caustic soda take profits. The market's expectation for policies has cooled down. The supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, the price drop of liquid chlorine has pushed up the cost of caustic soda, and the upstream reduction expectation is increasing [35][36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the latest values and change values of the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [39] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [40] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the latest values and change values of the inter - variety spreads of various combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc. [42] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summary content is provided in the text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index is 2577.38, up 0.65%; the industrial product index is 2189.12, up 0.17%; the PPI commodity index is 1356.51, up 0.63% [281]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on December 10, 2025, is 1107.95, with a daily decline of 0.27%, a decline of 1.59% in the past 5 days, a decline of 5.29% in the past month, and a decline of 9.77% since the beginning of the year [282].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, it is expected that tin prices will remain strong throughout the year. Hold existing long positions and adopt a strategy of buying on dips during price corrections. Monitor macro - level changes and supply - side fluctuations [1]. Zinc - With the improvement of interest - rate cut expectations and the opening of export space, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. Supply pressure eases, and the price is expected to move higher in the short term. Pay attention to the December FOMC meeting [4]. Copper - In the short term, the imbalance in global copper supply and inventory drives copper prices to rise rapidly, with increased price volatility. In the long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the price bottom. Focus on the range of 90,000 - 91,000 yuan/ton [6]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations, with the reference range for the main contract moving down to 2550 - 2800 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to remain strong in the short term, but beware of pull - back risks after price surges [8]. Industrial Silicon - It is expected that industrial silicon prices will oscillate at low levels, with the main price fluctuation range between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips if the price drops to 8500 - 8700 yuan/ton [9]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures are likely to oscillate at high levels, but considering the weak demand, the probability of the futures price falling to converge with the spot price is higher. Adopt a wait - and - see trading strategy [10]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton. Monitor the improvement in scrap aluminum supply and downstream procurement patterns [11]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to changes in macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate and recover in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Monitor the implementation of steel - mill production cuts and raw - material price changes [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 92,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton. Consider the resumption of production by large manufacturers and the sustainability of off - season demand [17]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices and Basis - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 800 yuan/ton to 314,000 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.25%. SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 23,130 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton [4]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 715 yuan/ton to 92,300 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.78%. The premium decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton [6]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 170 yuan/ton to 21,920 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.77%. The premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 8300 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.59% [9]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52,300 yuan/kg [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 21,600 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.46% [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 150 yuan/ton to 120,200 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.12%. The premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 4950 yuan/ton [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,800 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.79%. The basis increased by 90 yuan/ton to 460 yuan/ton [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 92,750 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.54%. The basis decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 92,750 yuan/ton [17]. Inter - monthly Spreads - **Tin**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 200 yuan/ton to - 350 yuan/ton, a rise of 36.36% [1]. - **Zinc**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 25 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **Copper**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 40 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [6]. - **Aluminum**: The spread between AL 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 8830 yuan/ton to - 8675 yuan/ton, a decline of 5696.77% [9]. - **Polysilicon**: The spread between the main contract and the first - continuous contract decreased by 525 yuan/ton to 2655 yuan/ton, a decline of 16.51% [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [11]. - **Nickel**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts decreased by 22 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 1500 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data Tin - In October, tin ore imports increased by 2918 tons to 11,632 tons, a rise of 33.49%. SMM refined tin production in October increased by 2580 tons to 16,090 tons, a rise of 53.09% [1]. Zinc - In November, refined zinc production decreased by 2.20 million tons to 59.52 million tons, a decline of 3.56%. In October, refined zinc imports decreased by 0.38 million tons to 1.88 million tons, a decline of 16.94% [4]. Copper - In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.15 million tons to 110.31 million tons, a rise of 1.05%. In October, electrolytic copper imports decreased by 5.22 million tons to 28.21 million tons, a decline of 15.61% [6]. Aluminum - In November, alumina production decreased by 34.6 million tons to 743.94 million tons, a decline of 4.44%. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 10.6 million tons to 363.66 million tons, a decline of 2.82% [8]. Industrial Silicon - National industrial silicon production decreased by 5.05 million tons to 40.17 million tons, a decline of 11.17%. The national operating rate decreased by 3.30 percentage points to 64.82% [9]. Polysilicon - Weekly polysilicon production increased by 0.18 million tons to 2.58 million tons, a rise of 7.50%. Monthly polysilicon production decreased by 1.94 million tons to 11.46 million tons, a decline of 14.48% [10]. Aluminum Alloy - In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 3.7 million tons to 68.20 million tons, a rise of 5.74%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.7 million tons to 30.27 million tons, a rise of 5.84% [11]. Nickel - Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 3453 tons to 33,345 tons, a decline of 9.38%. Refined nickel imports decreased by 18,626 tons to 9741 tons, a decline of 65.66% [13]. Stainless Steel - The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel (43 manufacturers) decreased by 1.30 million tons to 178.70 million tons, a decline of 0.72%. The production of Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel (Qinglong) increased by 0.15 million tons to 42.35 million tons, a rise of 0.36% [14]. Lithium Carbonate - In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3090 tons to 92,350 tons, a rise of 3.35%. Lithium carbonate demand increased by 6490 tons to 133,451 tons, a rise of 5.11% [17]. Inventory Changes Tin - SHEF weekly inventory increased by 206 tons to 6865 tons, a rise of 1.96%. Social inventory increased by 187 tons to 8012 tons, a rise of 2.39% [1]. Zinc - China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 0.83 million tons to 13.60 million tons, a decline of 5.75%. LME inventory increased by 0.24 million tons to 5.8 million tons, a rise of 4.29% [4]. Copper - Domestic social inventory increased by 0.13 million tons to 16.03 million tons, a rise of 0.82%. Bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.14 million tons to 7.75 million tons, a decline of 12.82% [6]. Aluminum - China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons to 59.50 million tons, a decline of 0.17%. LME inventory decreased by 0.3 million tons to 52.6 million tons, a decline of 0.47% [8]. Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang inventory increased by 0.34 million tons to 12.38 million tons, a rise of 2.82%. Social inventory increased by 0.80 million tons to 55.80 million tons, a rise of 1.45% [9]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.00 million tons to 29.10 million tons, a rise of 3.56%. Silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.80 million tons to 21.30 million tons, a rise of 9.23% [10]. Aluminum Alloy - The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.03 million tons to 5.53 million tons, a decline of 0.54% [11]. Nickel - SHFE inventory increased by 1726 tons to 42,508 tons, a rise of 4.23%. Social inventory increased by 1499 tons to 26,848 tons, a rise of 2.71% [13]. Stainless Steel - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.04 million tons to 49.20 million tons, a decline of 2.06%. The 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.44 million tons to 29.82 million tons, a decline of 1.44% [14]. Lithium Carbonate - In November, lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 19,674 tons to 64,560 tons, a decline of 23.36%. Downstream inventory decreased by 11,261 tons to 42,030 tons, a decline of 21.13% [17].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-10 柴油裂差近期⼤幅⾛弱，聚烯烃等诸多 品种创年内新低 原油期货价格周一下跌2%后，略略企稳，市场关注三大能源机构IE A、EIA和OPEC本周即将颁布的月度报告。受制裁原油销路不畅以及炼油厂 遭乌克兰无人机袭击等因素影响，俄罗斯11月原油产量远低于其在OPEC+ 框架下的配额，日产量较配额值低10余万桶。随着美国炼厂开工率持续攀 升，成品油季节性累库，成品油裂解价差走弱，亚洲一些简单型炼厂已接 近亏损。俄乌和平谈判是近期交易的重心，如果迟迟没有定论，油价仍将 延续震荡整理态势。 板块逻辑： 周二化工品价格大幅下挫，EG、PVC、PP和PE均跌至年度低点，供给 本身的压力以及原料走弱，是这些化工品下跌的主要原因。即使当前聚烯 烃全线亏损，两品种的日产量仍较去年同期有15%以上的增量，产业尚未 减产。周二因苯乙烯下游ABS亏损严重，卓创报道后期可能会有ABS企业卖 原料而停产ABS的举动；叠加纯苯持续走高的库存，苯乙烯开启下跌。急 跌之后期价可能重回震荡，但向上的动力尚未看到。 原油：地缘溢价摇摆，供应压力延续 沥 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年12月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内 石油沥青样本产能利用率为29.4823%，环比增加3.056个百分点，全国样本企业出货26.21万吨，环 比增加6.74%,样本企业产量为49.2万吨，环比增加11.56%,样本企业装置检修量预估为86.6万吨， 环比减少9.60%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为27.8%，环比增加0.12个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青开工 率为6.6%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为10.5658 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the pig and egg industries is cautiously bearish [3][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the pig industry, the decline in pig prices has led to an accumulation of frozen - product inventory, affecting the growth of slaughter volume. End - of - year demand may have limited impact on pig prices, and the current large supply pressure has a more prominent suppressing effect on short - term pig prices [2] - In the egg industry, although capacity reduction has started, the inventory of laying hens remains high, and the short - term supply pressure cannot be substantially alleviated. The demand side has limited ability to boost egg prices, and the price increase space is expected to be relatively limited [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2601 contract yesterday was 11,490 yuan/ton, a change of +35.00 yuan/ton (+0.31%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 11.18 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.05 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 11.37 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.12 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 11.33 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.17 yuan/kg [1] - Agricultural product prices: On December 2, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.29 points, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.34 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 17.59 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.2%; beef was 66.88 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.5%; mutton was 63.22 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.3%; eggs were 7.44 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.5%; and white - striped chickens were 17.61 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.6% [1] Market Analysis - Pig price decline has led to the accumulation of frozen - product inventory, affecting the growth of slaughter volume. End - of - year pickling demand is slightly lower than expected, and the demand at the end of the year may have limited ability to boost pig prices. The subsequent demand recovery strength remains to be seen, and the current large supply pressure has a more prominent suppressing effect on short - term pig prices [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2601 contract yesterday was 3138 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of - 64.00 yuan (-2.00%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.96 yuan/jin, with no change; in Shandong, it was 3.20 yuan/jin, with no change; in Hebei, it was 2.64 yuan/jin, a change of - 0.03 yuan [3] - Inventory: On December 3, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 0.97 days, an increase of 0.05 days (5.43%); the circulation - link inventory was 1.21 days, an increase of 0.02 days (1.68%) [3] Market Analysis - Although capacity reduction has started, the inventory of laying hens remains high, and the short - term supply pressure cannot be substantially alleviated. Against the background of high supply, the demand side has limited ability to boost egg prices, and the current price increase space is expected to be relatively limited [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international soybean market supply and demand are relatively loose, with limited upward space for the soybean price. The domestic soybean meal market is also in a state of loose supply and demand, and there is still price pressure in the medium and long - term. Rapeseed meal is affected by supply pressure and relevant rumors, and its price is expected to be under pressure [4][7]. - The monthly spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows a downward trend, and it is expected that there will still be pressure in the future [3][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On December 1, 2025, the domestic soybean meal futures prices slightly declined, and the rapeseed meal futures prices generally fell. The spot basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions changed to varying degrees. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased, and the monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed a downward trend [3]. - **Market Trends**: After the opening of the US soybean market, the market showed a volatile trend, and the domestic soybean meal market slightly declined. The rapeseed meal market generally declined, and the market was worried about supply pressure [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The monthly supply - demand report of US soybeans is generally bullish, but the market has fully reflected the bullish factors, and the upward space is limited. The sowing progress of new - crop soybeans in Brazil is fast, and it is expected to be a bumper harvest, which will put pressure on the price in the medium - term. The old - crop soybeans in Brazil and Argentina have good export and crushing performance, but the future export growth space may be limited [4]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal market supply and demand are relatively loose, with high inventory. The demand for rapeseed meal is weakening, and the supply pressure still exists [5]. 3.3 Macro - analysis - The macro - situation is generally stable. The resumption of the soybean export qualification of three US companies to China has improved the export prospects of US soybeans, but the future import volume is still uncertain [6]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - The US soybean market is mainly in a volatile state, and the price change is expected to be limited. The short - term dry weather in Brazil supports the market. The domestic soybean meal market is under pressure due to loose supply and demand, and there is still price pressure in the medium and long - term. Rapeseed meal is affected by rumors and supply pressure, and its price is expected to be under pressure. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to continue to decline [7]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Continue to lay out a small number of long positions. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [8].