Group 1 - The small hot pot sector is transitioning from a niche market to a mainstream focus starting in 2024, with major brands like Haidilao, Yang Guofu, and Xiaobai Xiaobai entering the space alongside cross-category brands and individual operators [1][2] - The number of small hot pot enterprises in China is approximately 23,000, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.8% from 2019 to 2023, and the market size is projected to reach nearly 65 billion yuan by July 2025 [2] - The small hot pot format is particularly appealing to young consumers due to its fast-casual dining attributes, making it a preferred choice for daily meals and gatherings [3] Group 2 - July 2023 marked a significant expansion in the small hot pot sector, with Haidilao launching its self-service hot pot model and Yang Guofu opening its first self-service location, both experiencing high customer demand [4] - Major brands like Banu, Shengxiangting, and others have also entered the small hot pot market, driven by consumer demand and brand capabilities, leading to a new wave of entrepreneurship in this sector [5] - The small hot pot industry is moving from "wild growth" to "refined operations," with a focus on balancing quality and price, as well as innovative business models [6][7] Group 3 - The supply chain is becoming a critical competitive advantage in the small hot pot industry, with brands needing to provide high-quality ingredients at low costs to succeed [8] - The entry of large chains is seen as a challenge for smaller brands lacking supply chain infrastructure, emphasizing the importance of operational efficiency and cost management [8][9] - The ongoing excitement in the small hot pot sector will continue, but brands must enhance their operational capabilities and differentiate themselves to thrive in a competitive landscape [9]

Core Insights - The new tea beverage industry is experiencing unprecedented differentiation due to the "takeaway war," with brands leveraging scale and supply chain advantages for expansion while some face growth bottlenecks [1][2] - The competition has shifted from "wild growth" to "refined management," emphasizing the importance of balancing scale and innovation, brand image, and supply chain barriers for future competition [1] Company Performance - Six listed new tea beverage companies have released their mid-year financial reports, with Mixue Group leading the industry with a revenue of 14.875 billion yuan, while Gu Ming achieved the fastest revenue growth at 41.2% [2][3] - Mixue Group's revenue growth of 39.3% and net profit of 2.693 billion yuan (up 42.9%) is attributed to its strong scale effect and expansion of product offerings [4] - Gu Ming's revenue reached 5.663 billion yuan with a net profit of approximately 1.625 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 121.5% [4] - Other companies like Hu Shang Ayi and Cha Bai Dao showed steady revenue growth, while Ba Wang Cha Ji faced profit decline despite a revenue increase of 21.6% [5][6] Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - The takeaway war has positioned new tea beverages as major beneficiaries of ongoing subsidies, with companies like Mixue and Gu Ming seeing increased sales due to these incentives [7][8] - Mixue's supply chain efficiency, including direct procurement and vertical integration, has allowed it to maintain lower costs and higher profit margins [8][9] - Gu Ming's long-term investment in supply chain optimization has also contributed to its significant revenue growth [9][10] Product Innovation and Market Expansion - Companies are diversifying their product offerings to avoid over-reliance on single categories, which can lead to decreased customer loyalty [11] - Gu Ming has introduced 52 new products, including coffee, which has enhanced customer engagement and sales volume [11][12] - Mixue's "Lucky Coffee" brand is emerging as a significant growth driver, leveraging direct procurement advantages [12][13] Future Outlook - The industry is at a critical juncture, requiring brands to redefine their positioning and avoid homogenization while balancing capital and supply chain management [13]

Core Viewpoint - The new tea beverage industry is experiencing significant changes in the first half of 2025, with leading brands achieving substantial revenue and profit growth, while smaller brands face increasing competitive pressure, leading to a more pronounced industry differentiation [1][7]. Revenue and Profit Summary - Mixue Group achieved a revenue of 14.875 billion yuan, becoming the only company in the new tea beverage sector to surpass 10 billion yuan in revenue [2] - Bawang Chaji ranked second with a revenue of 6.725 billion yuan, followed by Guming with 5.663 billion yuan, and Cha Baidao with 2.5 billion yuan [2] - Mixue Group also led in net profit with 2.718 billion yuan, while Guming's net profit growth reached 119.8%, the fastest among the brands [2] - Cha Baidao's profit increased to 333 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 39.5%, and Hushang Ayi's net profit grew by 20.9% [2] - Although Nayuki's Tea remains in a loss position, its adjusted net loss narrowed by 73.1% to 117 million yuan, indicating improvement [2] Store Expansion and Market Position - As of June 30, 2025, Mixue Group's global store count reached 53,014, with an addition of 9,796 stores in the first half of the year [3] - Guming became the second brand to exceed 10,000 stores, with a total of 11,179 stores, and opened 1,570 new stores in the first half of the year [3] - Bawang Chaji has 7,038 stores globally, while Cha Baidao's store count increased to 8,444 [3] - Hushang Ayi added 260 franchise stores, bringing its total to 9,436, while Nayuki's Tea reduced its store count to 1,321, a decrease of 132 stores [3] Supply Chain and Overseas Expansion - Supply chain capabilities are crucial for performance growth, with Mixue Group achieving 100% self-sourcing of core beverage ingredients [4] - Guming has 98% of its stores implementing a "two-day delivery" cold chain, while Hushang Ayi has established a comprehensive logistics network [4] - Cha Baidao has expanded its national distribution centers to 26, achieving a high-frequency cold chain supply network [4] - Mixue Group has expanded its overseas presence to 4,733 stores across 12 countries, with a focus on the Americas and Central Asia [6] - Bawang Chaji has expanded its overseas store network to 208, while Cha Baidao has established a presence in eight countries, including South Korea and Spain [6] - Nayuki's Tea plans to accelerate its overseas expansion but has not disclosed specific store numbers or regions yet [6] Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The new tea beverage industry is showing clear signs of differentiation, with leading brands leveraging their advantages to maintain market leadership, while smaller brands face heightened competition [7] - Future growth for new tea companies will depend on continuous efforts in product innovation, supply chain optimization, and market expansion to adapt to changing market demands [7]

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial Co., Ltd. (Tea Baidao) reported revenue and profit growth for the first half of 2025, achieving total revenue of 2.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and a profit of 333 million yuan, up 40% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 2.5 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 815 million yuan and a gross margin of 32.6% [1] - The profit for the period increased to 333 million yuan, representing a 40% year-on-year growth [1] Group 2: Operational Efficiency - The number of stores increased to 8,444 nationwide, with a flagship store opening in Chengdu [1] - The company has established 26 national warehousing and distribution centers, enhancing its supply chain capabilities [2] - Approximately 93.8% of stores achieve next-day replenishment, and about 95% receive deliveries twice or more per week [2] Group 3: Product Innovation - Tea Baidao launched 55 new products in the first half of 2025, with several becoming market highlights [2] - The "True Fresh Ice Milk" series has sold nearly 20 million cups, marking it as a phenomenon in the market [2] - The registered membership has reached 160 million, growing over 40% year-on-year [2] Group 4: International Expansion - The company has adopted a "one location, one strategy" approach for its international business, establishing stores in 8 countries and regions, with over 40 signed stores [3] - In South Korea, Tea Baidao has obtained franchise qualifications and currently operates 18 stores, with plans for further expansion [3] - Upcoming openings are planned for its first stores in France and the United States, indicating accelerated international growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Cha Baidao") reported a total revenue of 2.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4% and a profit increase to 333 million yuan with a gross margin of 32.6% [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 2.5 billion yuan, marking a 4% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Profit for the period rose to 333 million yuan, with a gross margin of 32.6% [1] Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - Cha Baidao has made significant progress in supply chain capability construction, enhancing operational efficiency while effectively reducing overall operational costs [1] - The number of national warehousing and distribution centers has increased to 26, with approximately 93.8% of stores achieving next-day delivery after placing orders [1] - About 95% of stores receive delivery services two or more times a week, with over 500 stores in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, and Chongqing offering nighttime delivery [1] - The distribution rate of fruits across stores has improved to 80%, positioning Cha Baidao as one of the few tea brands capable of high-frequency delivery of perishable goods like fresh milk and fruits nationwide [1] Competitive Advantage - According to a recent report by CICC, Cha Baidao's supply chain capabilities that support a balanced national layout have become its core competitive advantage, leading to an "outperforming the industry" rating [1]

Core Insights - Tea Baidao (02555.HK) reported a revenue of 2.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4% [1] - The company's profit increased to 333 million yuan, with a gross margin of 32.6% [1] - Significant progress in supply chain capabilities has led to improved operational efficiency and reduced overall operating costs [1] Revenue and Profit - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 2.5 billion yuan, marking a 4% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Profit for the period rose to 333 million yuan, indicating strong financial performance [1] - The gross margin achieved was 32.6%, reflecting effective cost management [1] Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - The number of national distribution centers has increased to 26, enhancing supply chain capabilities [1] - Approximately 93.8% of stores can receive next-day replenishment after placing orders [1] - About 95% of stores receive two or more deliveries per week, showcasing robust logistics [1] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Over 500 stores in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, and Chongqing offer nighttime delivery services [1] - The fruit distribution rate across stores has improved to 80%, allowing for high-frequency delivery of perishable items like fresh milk and fruits [1] - According to a recent report by CICC, the supply chain capability supporting nationwide balanced distribution has become a core competitive advantage for Tea Baidao, earning a "outperforming the industry" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The tea beverage industry is experiencing significant performance differentiation among brands, with Mixue and Guming leading in growth while Nayuki continues to struggle with losses [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Mixue Group reported a revenue of 14.875 billion and a net profit of 2.718 billion, both achieving approximately 40% growth [1]. - Guming achieved a net profit of 1.626 billion, a remarkable increase of 119.8%, with revenue growing by 41.2% to 5.663 billion [1]. - Nayuki's revenue declined by 14.4% to 2.178 billion, with an adjusted net loss reduced by 73.1% to 117 million [1][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The "takeaway war" has significantly influenced revenue growth, but the sustainability of this growth is uncertain as competition returns to rationality [2][8]. - Guming's CEO expressed concerns that long-term reliance on takeaway subsidies is detrimental to franchise operations and industry health [2]. Group 3: Store Expansion - Guming opened 1,570 new stores in the first half of 2025, more than double the 765 opened in the same period last year, reaching a total of 11,179 stores [4]. - Mixue also expanded its store count to 53,014, adding 9,796 stores in the same timeframe [4]. - In contrast, Shàngshàng Auntie saw a slower growth rate, with a net increase of only 260 stores [6]. Group 4: Revenue Sources - Guming's revenue breakdown shows that 79.4% comes from product and equipment sales, while franchise management services contribute 20.5% [5]. - Mixue's product and equipment sales reached 14.495 billion, accounting for over 97% of total revenue [5]. Group 5: Cost and Profitability - Nayuki faces high cost pressures, with material costs at 34.1% and employee costs at 29.8% of revenue, leading to profitability challenges [6]. - Mixue aims to maintain a long-term gross margin target of around 30% as it scales operations [6]. Group 6: Future Growth Strategies - Brands are exploring coffee as a growth avenue, with Mixue's subsidiary Luckin Coffee seeing a 164% increase in new store openings [10]. - Guming has introduced coffee products in over 8,000 stores, with coffee sales accounting for about 15% of some franchisees' revenue [10]. - The competitive landscape in the coffee market raises questions about the ability of new tea beverage brands to capture market share [10].

Core Insights - The tea beverage industry is experiencing significant revenue growth, with brands like Mixue and Guming leading the way, while Nayuki is lagging behind [1][2] - The "takeaway war" has played a crucial role in driving sales, but its sustainability is in question as competition normalizes [2][7] Group 1: Financial Performance - Mixue Group reported a revenue of 14.875 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.718 billion yuan, both achieving approximately 40% growth [1] - Guming's net profit surged by 119.8% to 1.626 billion yuan, with revenue increasing by 41.2% to 5.663 billion yuan [1] - Nayuki's revenue declined by 14.4% to 2.178 billion yuan, with an adjusted net loss reduced by 73.1% to 117 million yuan [1][4] Group 2: Store Expansion - Guming opened 1,570 new stores in the first half of 2025, doubling the 765 stores opened in the same period last year, reaching a total of 11,179 stores [3] - Mixue Group also expanded significantly, increasing its global store count to 53,014, with 9,796 new stores opened in the first half of the year [3] - Nayuki closed 132 self-operated stores, attributing revenue decline to the closure of underperforming locations [4] Group 3: Revenue Sources - The majority of revenue for leading tea brands comes from selling raw materials and equipment to franchisees, with Guming's sales from goods and equipment contributing 79.4% of its revenue [4] - Mixue's sales from goods and equipment reached 14.495 billion yuan, accounting for over 97% of total revenue [4] Group 4: Cost and Profitability - The tea beverage companies have seen improvements in costs and profits, with Mixue aiming to maintain a long-term gross margin of around 30% [5] - Nayuki faces high cost pressures, with material costs accounting for 34.1% of revenue and employee costs at 29.8% [6] Group 5: Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape in the takeaway market has led to increased sales but may not be sustainable in the long term as subsidies decrease [7][8] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards coffee offerings, with brands like Mixue and Guming expanding their coffee product lines [8][9]

Investment Highlights - Company is rated as outperforming the industry with a target price of HKD 12.00, based on a relative P/E valuation method corresponding to 19/15 times earnings for 2025/26 [1] - The ready-to-drink tea market is expected to maintain rapid growth, with a market size of RMB 258.5 billion in 2023 and a CAGR of 19% over the past five years, projected to continue high growth from 2024 to 2028 [1] - The industry remains fragmented with a CR5 of 46.8%, indicating room for leading brands to increase market penetration [1] Company Overview - Company ranks third in China's ready-to-drink tea market with a market share of 6.8% in 2023, rapidly expanding its store network through a franchise model, aiming for 8,395 stores by the end of 2024 with a CAGR of 68.4% from 2020 to 2024 [2] - The company has a balanced and diverse product matrix, with approximately 40% of sales from classic products and 60% from seasonal and new tea drinks, boasting over 139 million registered members by the end of 2024 [2] - The company benefits from a robust supply chain and a systematic franchise management system, supporting its nationwide expansion and efficient store operations [2] Performance Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a recovery in performance in 2025, with same-store sales growth and franchisee profitability anticipated to stabilize from Q2 2025 onwards after adjustments in store opening pace and store efficiency in 2024 [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 0.59 and RMB 0.72 for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with a CAGR of 50% [3] - The company is currently trading at 14/12 times earnings for 2025/26, with a target price reflecting a 32% upside potential [3] Market Differentiation - The company distinguishes itself from market concerns regarding same-store sales sustainability by enhancing its new product development, category extension, and marketing capabilities, indicating a sustainable growth trajectory [3] - Potential catalysts for growth include same-store sales growth, new product development, and supply chain enhancements [3]

Core Insights - The tea beverage industry is experiencing significant revenue growth, with major brands like Mixue and Guming leading the way, while Nayuki is lagging behind [1][2] - The "takeaway war" has played a crucial role in driving sales, but its sustainability is in question as competition normalizes [2][7] Financial Performance - Mixue Group reported a revenue of 14.875 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.718 billion yuan, both achieving approximately 40% growth [1] - Guming's net profit surged by 119.8% to 1.626 billion yuan, with revenue increasing by 41.2% to 5.663 billion yuan [1] - Nayuki's revenue declined by 14.4% to 2.178 billion yuan, with an adjusted net loss reduced by 73.1% to 117 million yuan [1] Store Expansion - Guming opened 1,570 new stores in the first half of 2025, doubling the 765 stores opened in the same period last year, reaching a total of 11,179 stores [3] - Mixue Group also expanded its store count to 53,014, adding 9,796 stores in the same timeframe [3] - Nayuki closed 132 self-operated stores, attributing revenue decline to the closure of underperforming locations [4] Revenue Sources - A significant portion of revenue for leading tea brands comes from selling raw materials and equipment to franchisees, with Guming's sales from goods and equipment contributing 79.4% of its revenue [4] - Mixue's sales from goods and equipment reached 14.495 billion yuan, accounting for over 97% of total revenue [4] Cost and Profitability - The tea beverage companies have seen improvements in costs and profits, with Mixue aiming to maintain a long-term gross margin of around 30% [5] - Nayuki faces high cost pressures, with material costs making up 34.1% of revenue and employee costs at 29.8% [6] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape in the takeaway market has led to increased sales but raises concerns about long-term growth sustainability [7] - The "takeaway war" has temporarily boosted sales, but as competition stabilizes, brands may face challenges in maintaining growth [7][8] Strategic Initiatives - Brands are exploring coffee as a growth avenue, with Mixue's coffee brand Lucky Coffee seeing a 164% increase in new store openings [8][9] - Guming has introduced coffee products in over 8,000 stores, with coffee sales accounting for about 15% of some franchisees' revenue [9]