11月24日，A股市场涨跌分化，中证石化产业指数震荡下行，现跌约%，成分股三美股份、蓝晓科技、 华峰化学等领涨。相关ETF方面，石化ETF（159731）近10个交易日有8个交易日获得资金净流入，合 计"吸金"2674万元。 兴业证券分析称，近期商品市场涨价的线索可以概括为两条，一是全球AI资本开支带动下的新能源产 业链、有色和化工涨价，包括新能源相关化工品（硫化工、磷化工）、制冷剂（氟化工）、金属&新材 料（锂、锡、铝、铜、钨）、存储；二是供给收缩+"反内卷"受益的化工品，包括叶酸、有机硅DMC、 盐酸、聚氨酯、化纤等。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，按照申万二级行业 来看，中证石化产业指数前三大行业分别为炼化及贸易（26.76%）、化学制品（22.41%）和农化制品 （21.14%）， "反内卷"政策加持下行业长期价值凸显，供需持续改善景气度有望持续上行。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Steel reported a revenue of approximately 19.091 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 7.32%, while the net loss attributable to shareholders narrowed by 83.82% to about 218 million yuan, with a basic loss per share of 0.02 yuan [3][4] Industry Summary - The steel industry has experienced declining profitability since 2021, with continuous losses for three years, leading to cash flow issues for some smaller steel companies, highlighting supply vulnerabilities [3] - Recent policies, including the "Steel Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", emphasize the continuation of production reduction policies aimed at supporting advanced enterprises and phasing out inefficient capacities, which is expected to promote dynamic supply-demand balance [4] - There is an expectation of further production cuts or even shutdowns in the supply side, with projections indicating continued supply contraction into 2026 [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the liquor industry during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day is lackluster, with a year-on-year decline of approximately 20% despite a month-on-month improvement from July to August [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The liquor sales during the 2025 double festival are reported to be flat, with a significant demand gap remaining, particularly in the high-end and sub-high-end segments [1][4]. - The mid-to-low-end liquor sales are performing better than high-end and sub-high-end products, with banquet brands showing faster sales velocity [1][3]. - Major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are gradually capturing market share from competitors due to price declines, while Fenjiu maintains upward momentum with stable pricing [1][3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The recovery of government and business consumption demand is expected to take time, impacting high-end and sub-high-end liquor consumption in the short term [2][4]. - Attention should be focused on supply-side contraction signals from companies post-festival, which could catalyze the sector [2][4]. - Price indicators are anticipated to turn positive in 2026, potentially driving inflation and corporate profitability, leading to a sustained recovery in liquor demand [1][4]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies that are relatively healthy and have a positive market atmosphere, such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Wuliangye [4]. - Companies that are innovating in channels and models, like Yingjia Gongjiu and Zhenjiu Lidu, are also highlighted as potential growth contributors [4].

Core Insights - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2023, with revenue reaching 1.131 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders at 107 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items at 82 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 23.82%, 207.91%, and 1624.92% respectively [1] Industry Overview - The domestic nitrocellulose market has experienced a supply contraction of 46%, primarily due to production halts from accidents and the company's decision to shut down its Xi'an production line, reducing its annual capacity from 55,000 tons in 2023 to 30,000 tons in 2024 [1] - The industry has faced significant capacity reductions, with major incidents such as the explosion at Xuefei Chemical affecting 20,000 tons of capacity and another incident at Hengshui Jianmin impacting 6,000 tons [1] Market Dynamics - Geopolitical factors have increased demand for nitrocellulose, leading to a historical high in export prices, with August 2023 seeing an export price of 42,000 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 37.76% [2] - The company holds a prominent position in the global nitrocellulose market, with over 50% market share domestically and approximately 15% internationally, benefiting from the current price increases [2] Future Prospects - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for environmentally friendly fireworks made from nitrocellulose, which produce less smoke and pollutants compared to traditional fireworks [3] - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are optimistic, with expected revenues of 2.602 billion, 3.333 billion, and 4.326 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 34%, 28%, and 30% respectively [3] - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth, with net profits projected at 259 million, 411 million, and 553 million yuan for the same period, indicating year-on-year increases of 1016%, 59%, and 35% respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese steel industry aims for an average annual value-added growth target of around 4% for the years 2025-2026, focusing on "stabilizing growth and preventing internal competition" to guide structural adjustments and high-quality development [1] Group 1: Demand and Supply Outlook - Steel demand is expected to gradually stabilize, with a decrease in the proportion of steel demand from the real estate sector due to ongoing declines in the property market, while infrastructure is anticipated to continue providing support [1] - Manufacturing demand is projected to grow steadily, leading to an overall expectation of stabilizing domestic steel demand [1] - On the supply side, some steel companies are experiencing continuous cash flow losses, indicating vulnerability, with two waves of proactive production cuts expected in 2024 and further reductions possible in 2025 [1] Group 2: Industry Structure and Policy Impact - The steel industry is characterized by severe overcapacity, particularly in rebar and wire rod, with capacity utilization rates dropping from around 70% to approximately 50% from 2021 to 2025 [2] - The concentration of production among state-owned enterprises is significantly higher than that of private enterprises, which may facilitate the implementation of administrative measures to address overcapacity [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to constrain production by about 5% to 10%, potentially leading to a recovery in steel prices and improved profitability [2]

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" theme has gained significant attention in the A-share market, with sectors such as steel, photovoltaic, and building materials experiencing substantial growth in recent weeks [1][2][6]. Market Performance - Over the past 18 trading days (from June 20 to July 15), the steel, building materials, and power equipment sectors have all seen increases exceeding 8% [1]. - The photovoltaic equipment index has risen by 15.55% during the same period [4]. - Specific sector performances include: components up 20.35%, glass and fiberglass up 20.21%, photovoltaic equipment up 15.55%, and ordinary steel up 12.75% [5]. Policy Influence - The "anti-involution" theme is driven by recent policy discussions, particularly the emphasis on reducing low-price competition and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [2][6]. - The central government's focus on building a unified national market and addressing key challenges has catalyzed this market trend [2]. Industry Focus - Key industries benefiting from the "anti-involution" theme include traditional sectors like steel and cement, as well as emerging industries such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles [6][7]. - The current "anti-involution" policies are primarily concentrated on four major sectors: photovoltaics, e-commerce, automobiles, and steel [7]. Investment Opportunities - Investment institutions are increasingly allocating resources to sectors involved in the "anti-involution" theme, particularly those with historically low valuations and significant recovery potential [8][9]. - Analysts suggest focusing on industries with low valuations and potential for improved competitive dynamics, such as upstream photovoltaic, real estate, and livestock sectors [9][10]. Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" market is expected to unfold in three phases: the current expectation phase driven by policy, a subsequent phase of rising resource prices, and finally a phase where high prices stabilize [1][11]. - The market may not follow a straightforward three-phase pattern, as past experiences suggest that price reactions could occur earlier and more concentrated in leading stocks [11].

Group 1 - China Shipbuilding's merger with China State Shipbuilding Corporation was approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange on July 9, 2025, marking the conclusion of the largest capital operation in the domestic shipbuilding industry [1] - The Chinese commercial aerospace industry is experiencing a wave of securitization, with Jiangsu Deep Blue Aerospace completing nearly 500 million yuan in financing for reusable rocket development, and Chengdu Guoxing Aerospace submitting a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] - Yunnan's state-owned enterprises are driving investment growth through major projects, while China FAW's vehicle sales exceeded 1.57 million units in the first half of 2025, and the State Grid's 140 peak summer projects have all been put into operation, demonstrating the ongoing efforts of state-owned enterprises in industrial upgrading and public welfare [1] Group 2 - GF Securities indicates that the "anti-involution" policy in 2025 has initiated a new round of supply contraction across industries such as steel, cement, automotive, and photovoltaic [2] - The Steel Association is calling for resistance against "involution-style" competition, while the cement industry is promoting the implementation of capacity replacement policies, and automotive companies are adjusting supplier payment terms and sales strategies [2] - Photovoltaic glass companies collectively reduced production by 30% to alleviate low-price competition, with historical cases of supply contraction indicating that market sentiment typically remains cautious at the policy's onset [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term price of the black building materials industry is expected to be "strong - biased", and the medium - term outlook is "sideways" [1][2][6] 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of supply contraction is strengthened, and the market sentiment is optimistic. Frequent macro - level positive factors combined with a good fundamental situation lead to a short - term strong - biased price trend in the black building materials industry [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines have basically ended their quarterly volume - pushing, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The profitability rate of steel enterprises has remained stable, and the molten iron production of small - sample steel enterprises has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. The port inventory has slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The market sentiment is good, and the futures price is oscillating strongly [2] Carbon Element - In the supply side, coal mines in Shanxi are gradually resuming supply, but there are still regional disturbances, and the overall supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the daily customs clearance at the port has remained above 800 vehicles in recent days, and the pre - festival stocking sentiment is evident. In the demand side, the coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. The downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent, and future attention should be paid to coal mine复产 and Mongolian coal imports [3] Alloys - **Manganese Alloy**: The manganese ore price has remained stable, but the port inventory has slightly increased, and there is still room for the ore price to decline in the future. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the futures price is insufficient, but the downward space is limited due to cost support, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is relatively healthy, but there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, which makes it more difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the silicon iron price is insufficient, but due to the continuous loss in the industry, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term under cost support [3][6] Glass - In the demand side, the demand in the off - season is declining, and the deep - processing demand is still weak. In the supply side, there are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and a production line is planned to resume production, so the supply pressure still exists. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and the internal contradiction is not prominent. Recently, the anti - involution sentiment has increased, and the market is worried about supply - side production cuts. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate [12][13] Soda Ash - The supply - side over - capacity situation has not changed, and the long - term suppression still exists. The production is at a high level, and the supply pressure remains. In the demand side, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand for light soda ash is weak, with manufacturers continuously reducing prices. The market is affected by sentiment, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended that enterprises seize the short - term positive - feedback hedging opportunities. The short - term outlook is sideways, and the long - term price center is expected to decline [6][13] Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: In the off - season, the fundamental contradiction is limited, and the off - season pressure remains to be observed. Overseas tariffs are constantly disturbing, and after the steel price increase, the pressure on steel exports shows a marginal weakening trend. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short term [8] - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron production of small - sample steel enterprises has decreased, and the price is oscillating upward. The demand is at a high level, and the fundamental contradiction is not obvious. After this round of upward movement, the futures price has reached an important resistance level, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both weakening marginally, and it is expected to oscillate after the macro - level sentiment cools down [9] - **Coke**: The cost support is strengthening, and the expectation of price increase is growing. The current supply - demand pattern has further improved, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment is high, and both the spot and futures prices are strengthening. The current fundamental supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] - **Silicon Manganese**: The spot market is in a stalemate. The supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and it is difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the futures price is insufficient, but the downward space is limited due to cost support, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [14] - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand relationship is currently healthy, but there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, making it difficult to reduce inventory. The upward driving force of the price is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term under cost support [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rebound in the commodity market following the Geneva joint statement between China and the U.S., driven by demand recovery expectations and supply contractions in certain products [1]. Group 1: Demand Marginal Tracking - The demand increase in the 90-day tariff suspension period is attributed to the shipment of previously delayed orders and U.S. companies' potential actions to "rush imports and transshipments" [2]. - The recent rise in U.S. shipping prices indicates an increase in orders, which will sustain strong demand in the near term [2]. - For complex goods, the delivery process may not see significant growth in demand during the tariff suspension, while shorter delivery cycle products like textiles and toys may show increased purchasing by U.S. companies [4][5]. Group 2: Profit and Supply Decision Adjustments - Short-term supply changes have a greater impact on price elasticity, with maintenance and operational issues in PX and PTA providing upward momentum for chemical products [9]. - The actual pace of production recovery is constrained by large manufacturers' maintenance plans and strategic supply adjustments, which create price support independent of demand [10]. - Despite potential for rapid production increases in the upstream supply chain, the lack of significant demand growth and previous low-profit periods may limit the willingness of leading manufacturers to increase output [13]. Group 3: Trade Policy Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy remains a significant risk, with a potential increase in tariffs by 54% if no agreement is reached within 90 days [16]. - The U.S. fiscal issues may necessitate a focus on revenue generation and spending cuts, complicating trade negotiations and potentially leading to higher retail prices that suppress consumer demand [16]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments in response to economic conditions may also impact inflation expectations and commodity prices [17]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Precious metals may experience short-term price corrections due to tariff and geopolitical tensions but are expected to return to their roles as a store of value in the medium term [23]. - Non-ferrous metals may face short-term demand limitations due to U.S. procurement decisions during the tariff suspension, but medium-term trends will be influenced by Federal Reserve policies [23]. - The energy sector faces supply and demand pressures, with OPEC's production increases and limited demand support affecting price stability [23].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3] Core Views - The coal sector has shown a slight increase of 0.45% recently, but it underperformed compared to the benchmark index (CSI 300) by 0.94 percentage points [5] - Domestic and international thermal coal prices are under pressure, with domestic prices at 700 RMB/ton, down 1.41% week-on-week, and international prices showing declines as well [6] - Supply of thermal coal is tightening due to safety inspections and some mines temporarily halting production, while demand is expected to decline as heating season ends [6] - Coking coal supply remains stable, with domestic prices holding steady at 1200 RMB/ton, while downstream demand is showing signs of recovery [7] - The report suggests that despite expected declines in thermal coal demand, seasonal recovery in non-electric sectors (like steel and chemicals) may offset this, leading to a potential stabilization in coal prices [8] Summary by Sections Market Review - The coal sector's PE valuation is at 10.18 times, within the 48.14% percentile over the past decade, while the PB valuation is at 1.18 times, within the 26.22% percentile [5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic thermal coal prices are weak, with a current market price of 700 RMB/ton, and international prices for Australian, European, and South African coal also declining [6] - The supply of thermal coal is slightly contracting due to safety measures and inspections, while demand is expected to decrease as the heating season concludes [6] - Coking coal prices are stable domestically, with a price of 1200 RMB/ton, and there is a gradual recovery in downstream demand as construction activities resume [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading coal companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable operations, as well as coking coal companies with low valuations and improving operational conditions, maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the industry [8]