新华财经北京9月30日电随着大连、湖南和陕西三地的最后一批地方债招投标在周二（30日）结束， 2025年3季度的政府债券发行工作告一段落。截至9月最后一个交易日，政府债券（国债和地方债）前9 个月共发行1971只，其中，国债发行155只，地方债发行1816只；1-9月份，政府债券总发行规模为 20.48万亿元，国债和地方债分别发行11.95万亿元和8.53万亿元，同比分别增长22.10%和27.60%（下 表）。 | | | 2025年前3季度 | 2024年前3季度 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 发行只数 | 发行额(亿元) | 发行只数 发行额(亿元) | | | 国债 | 155 | 119,529.80 | 149 | 97.892.70 | | 地方政府债 | 1.816 | 85. 331. 94 | 1.583 | 66. 875. 77 | | 合计 | 1.971 | 204, 861. 74 | 1,732 | 164.768.47 | 统计数据显示，截至3季度，存量政府债券有13,398只，其中，国债有294只，地方债13,104只 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the bond market in August 2025 from multiple perspectives, including the central bank's balance sheet and custody volume, institutional leverage, institutional behavior by type, and bond types. It presents the latest trends in central bank monetary policy and institutional investment strategies, and predicts short - term investment opportunities and risks in the bond market [8]. - In the short term, due to the approaching of the end - of - September to early - October period to achieve the annual 5% growth target, with the implementation of growth - stabilizing policies and cross - quarter capital fluctuations, institutional sentiment remains cautious, and there may be redemption disturbances. The remaining issuance quota of bonds is relatively low, indicating that there is still room for fiscal stimulus [7][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 August Central Bank Balance Sheet and Custody Volume Interpretation - **Balance Sheet Changes**: In August 2025, the central bank's balance sheet size increased from 45.9 trillion yuan to 46.3 trillion yuan. On the asset side, the main increase was in "claims on other depository corporations", and the main decrease was in "claims on other financial corporations". On the liability side, the main increase was in "government deposits", and the main decrease was in "deposits of other depository corporations" [14]. - **Impact on Custody Volume**: The net investment of the central bank's innovative tools in August was 2608 billion yuan, which was close to the monthly increase of 2754 billion yuan in the "ChinaBond - Other" (central bank) account. The main incremental bond types were local government bonds and policy - bank bonds [32]. 3.2 Leverage Ratio - In August, the overall capital market was stable, but the bond market was in a head - wind period. The average monthly leverage ratio dropped to 107.4%. The stock - bond seesaw effect continued to suppress the bond market performance, and institutional leverage willingness weakened. The average monthly trading volume of pledged repurchase remained at 7.6 trillion yuan [37]. 3.3 By Institution Type - **Banks**: Large banks reduced their allocation of 7 - 15y local government bonds and extended the maturity of their Treasury bond purchases. Rural commercial banks' entry - point expectations rose, and their secondary - market trading demand weakened [52][54]. - **Insurance**: Since August, under the influence of "rush to stop sales", insurance companies have increased their bond purchases at high prices, mainly increasing their holdings of local government bonds and Treasury bonds [67]. - **General Funds**: In August, the custody volume of general funds decreased again this year, mainly reducing their holdings of certificates of deposit and commercial bank financial bonds. Fund redemptions occurred repeatedly, while bank wealth management's bond allocation was in line with the seasonal level [76][80][84]. - **Foreign Investors**: The decline in the comprehensive return of foreign investors' investment in certificates of deposit narrowed, and the net outflow speed slowed down. They mainly reduced their holdings of certificates of deposit, Treasury bonds, and policy - bank bonds [93]. 3.4 By Bond Type - In August, the incremental increase in the bond market's custody volume decreased month - on - month. Interest - rate bonds were the main supporting factor, with increments of 8261 billion yuan, 5172 billion yuan, and 4616 billion yuan for Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds respectively. Certificates of deposit were the main reduction item, with a reduction of 3556 billion yuan [94].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that "care" in monetary policy does not necessarily equate to interest rate cuts, and interest rate cuts do not always lead to increased debt issuance [5][17] - The adjustment of the 14-day reverse repo to a "multiple price bidding" format is seen as a continuation of previous monetary policy strategies, with limited incremental information being conveyed [6][10] - The central bank's recent actions indicate a strong continuity in monetary policy, with the 14-day reverse repo being used primarily as a tool to manage liquidity around holidays rather than signaling a shift towards looser monetary policy [5][10][17] Group 2 - The 14-day reverse repo is expected to have limited actual impact on the bond market, serving mainly as a tool for addressing liquidity needs during specific periods such as holidays [10][14] - The report notes that the actual weighted bidding rate for the 14-day reverse repo is likely to decline, but its influence on the central funding rates and the bond market remains limited due to its non-mainstream status [14][16] - The central bank's liquidity management strategy has been focused on maintaining a balance between inflows and outflows, with the aim of stabilizing funding fluctuations [9][16] Group 3 - Despite the central bank's current supportive stance on interbank liquidity, it does not imply a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [17][19] - The report suggests that unless there are significant market fluctuations or rapid currency appreciation, the likelihood of further interest rate cuts within the year remains low [17][19] - The logic behind government bond trading is similar, with a low necessity to restart government bond purchases unless there is a significant downturn in the bond market [18][19]

Group 1 - The total scale of credit bond ETFs is 356.5 billion yuan, with a daily increase of 550 million yuan, while the benchmark market-making ETF decreased by 40 million yuan and the sci-tech bond ETF increased by 210 million yuan [1] - The median weighted duration is 3.7 years, with an overall transaction amount of 95.3 billion yuan and an average single transaction amount of 3.82 million yuan [1] - The median yield is 1.95%, and the median discount rate is -10.6 basis points, with the benchmark market-making at -34.3 basis points and the sci-tech bond at -4.1 basis points [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has adopted a clear easing stance, adjusting the 14-day reverse repurchase operation to fixed quantity and interest rate bidding, which may lower the execution rate to around 1.45% [1] - The upcoming listing of 14 new sci-tech bond ETF products is expected to enhance market liquidity and investment opportunities [1] - The recent performance of Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) shows a controlled net value decline of only 10 basis points, indicating stability and relative advantages in valuation [2]

Group 1 - The benchmark government bond ETF (511100) has seen a price increase of 0.05%, with the latest price at 107.82 yuan as of September 22, 2025 [1] - The trading volume for the benchmark government bond ETF was active, with a turnover of 103.45% and a transaction value of 5.524 billion yuan, indicating strong market activity [1] - Over the past week, the average daily transaction value for the benchmark government bond ETF was 13.447 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - In terms of capital inflow, the benchmark government bond ETF has attracted a total of 600 million yuan over the last 15 trading days, bringing its latest scale to 5.336 billion yuan [2] - The highest monthly return since inception for the benchmark government bond ETF was 2.67%, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being 9 months and a maximum gain of 6.94% [2] - The annual profit percentage for the benchmark government bond ETF stands at 100%, with a monthly profit probability of 71.78% and a historical one-year holding profit probability of 100% [2] Group 3 - The maximum drawdown for the benchmark government bond ETF over the past six months was 2.11%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.26% [4] - The management fee for the benchmark government bond ETF is 0.15%, while the custody fee is 0.05% [4] Group 4 - The tracking error for the benchmark government bond ETF over the past month was 0.021% [5] - The current bond market fundamentals are considered to be in a "favorable period," with potential for further upward deviation in interest rates and fundamentals [5] - Although credit growth and price levels are still at a bottom reversal stage, the interest rate downtrend inflection point is expected to take time, with a potential recovery range of within 10 basis points [5]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential for interest rates to continue declining, with a focus on the performance of 10-year government bonds expected to range between 1.85% and 1.9% [1] - It highlights specific bonds to consider for trading, including 250203 and 250208, while emphasizing the importance of liquidity in bond selection [1] - The article notes that the current spread between 10-year government bonds (250210-250215) is around 1.5 basis points, with expectations for 250215 to remain a key bond in the coming months [1] Group 2 - The article mentions that the 30-year government bond (25T6) is currently trading 3-4 basis points higher than 25T5 and 9-10 basis points higher than 25T2, indicating its volatility during market adjustments [2] - It suggests that if 25T6 becomes the main bond, the spread compared to 25T2 could narrow to 3-6 basis points under optimistic conditions [2] - The article provides a detailed table of various bond ETFs, highlighting their performance metrics, including net asset values and trading volumes, with a focus on the stability of the Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) [2]

Group 1 - The article suggests that the bond market in September may outperform the stock market, with seasonal patterns not being directly applicable [1] - Recent adjustments in the bond market have been observed, but the performance in June was strong, indicating a potential similar trend in September [1] - With the decline in banks' funding costs, government bonds are becoming increasingly attractive for banks' proprietary trading [1] Group 2 - The current yield spread between bonds and funding costs is expected to widen as costs decrease further [1] - The stock market is experiencing significant volatility, with concerns that a bull market may not be desirable [1] - The article highlights that small and medium-sized stocks are generally overvalued with low growth potential, indicating a bubble [1] Group 3 - The recent redemption of fixed income products has had a temporary impact on the bond market [1] - The bond market is returning to a pricing model based on fundamentals and liquidity [1] - The company bond ETF (511030) has shown the least discount in trading over the past week, with a net inflow of 0.52 billion [2]

Group 1 - The bond market is expected to continue its upward trend due to stable wealth management products, with a net value break rate of only 2% as of the end of August, which is at a multi-year low [1] - The stock market's strong stabilization may soon come to an end, leading to challenges for convertible bonds, with an estimated 200 billion yuan in primary bond funds held by wealth management [1] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to range between 1.6% and 1.8% in the second half of the year, with potential for rapid movement towards 1.6% if the stock market experiences significant adjustments [1] Group 2 - The Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has shown the best performance in controlling drawdowns during the recent bond market adjustment, with the least trading discount and a net inflow of 0.52 million yuan in the past week [2] - The average annualized yield of fixed-income wealth management products exceeded 2% in August, indicating a favorable environment for bond investments [1] - The bond market has experienced adjustments in June and September, but the market outlook for September appears positive following the adjustments in August [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has a total of 22,731 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing this week, with specific maturities of 2,884 billion yuan, 4,058 billion yuan, 3,799 billion yuan, 4,161 billion yuan, and 7,829 billion yuan from Monday to Friday [1] - The central bank conducted a 1,827 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation, maintaining the interest rate at 1.40% [1] Group 2 - Analysts believe that the bond market will outperform the stock market in September, with a strong bullish outlook on bonds [3] - The net profit growth rate for all A-shares (excluding financial, oil, and petrochemical sectors) in the first half of 2025 is only 2.4%, a decline of 3 percentage points from the first quarter [3] - The overall cost of interest-bearing liabilities for listed banks in Q2 2025 has decreased to 1.72%, with expectations to drop to around 1.67% in Q3 and below 1.65% by year-end [3] - New loans are expected to reach 850 billion yuan in August, with social financing at 2.5 trillion yuan, indicating a significant slowdown in social financing growth [3] Group 3 - The stock market is transitioning from a broad bull market to a structural bull market due to the slow entry of retail investors [4] - There is a growing optimism among bond investors compared to stock investors, with some equity managers starting to buy 30-year government bonds [4] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to remain between 1.6% and 1.8%, with a strong bullish outlook for the bond market in the second half of the year [4] Group 4 - As of August 29, 2025, the net value of the 5-10 year government bond ETF has increased by 21.10% [5] - The highest monthly return since inception for the 5-10 year government bond ETF is 2.58%, with a historical annual profit percentage of 100% [5] - The management fee for the 5-10 year government bond ETF is 0.15%, and the tracking error over the last three months is 0.040% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is currently facing contradictions due to "anti-involution" policies and future inflation expectations, leading to adjustments in market sentiment and investment strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Market Analysis - The 10-year government bond ETF (511260) rose by 0.07% on August 27, indicating stable performance, with a support level around 1.8% for the 10-year bond yield due to long-term institutional investments [1]. - The bond market is expected to experience fluctuations, with a recommendation for a wave trading strategy, as the yield remains above 1.75%, suggesting value in long-term bonds [1]. - The central bank's monetary policy remains accommodative, and rising inflation could increase the likelihood of interest rate cuts by year-end, which may lead to a potential restart of government bond trading [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investment Opportunities - The strong performance of the stock market is exerting pressure on the bond market, with prevailing pessimistic expectations among investors [2]. - Historical analysis shows that the relationship between stocks and bonds is unstable, as major bond market investors (like banks and insurance companies) are unlikely to shift significant funds to the stock market due to risk considerations [2]. - The high valuation of bonds, following a three-year bull market, has led to yields being at historical lows, making them relatively expensive compared to the dividend yields of the CSI 300 index (2.5-3%) [2]. - The release of pessimistic sentiment may create investment opportunities for bottom-fishing in the bond market after significant declines [2].