截至2025年8月25日 14:17，30年国债ETF博时(511130)上涨0.44%，最新价报108.67元。拉长时间看，截至2025年8月22日，30年国债ETF博时近1年累计上涨 5.92%。 流动性方面，30年国债ETF博时盘中换手23.92%，成交43.33亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截至8月22日，30年国债ETF博时近1周日均成交58.37亿 元。 消息面上，8月22日为国债发行大日，共计2370亿元的新债招标，而中标利率大大超出了市场收益率。其中，10年国债新券的票面利率1.83%，超出二级市 场活跃券至少6BP；30年新券的票面利率达到2.15%，超出二级市场活跃券近8BP。22日发行结果落地后，10年、30年国债活跃券收益率双双明显上行。 华泰证券表示，当前债市票息保护弱、重博弈、情绪驱动强，投资体验"事倍功半"。短期债市仍处逆风，但利率大概率"上有顶"。短期维持十年国债老券上 限在1.8%附近（配置盘开始关注），极限位置是1.9%（交易盘介入），潜在超调风险仍来自于机构行为。时间上，十月份之后（供给淡季+情绪拐点+消费 等高基数）再寻找"反攻"机会。资金面持续收紧风险不大，继续推荐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is under significant pressure amid a strong equity market, leading to a notable increase in long-term yields and a decline in bond prices [2][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 18, the 30-year government bond futures contract fell by 1.33% to 116.09, while the 10-year contract dropped by 0.29% to 108.015 [3]. - The 30-year government bond yield rose by 6 basis points to 2.053%, and the 10-year yield increased by 4 basis points to 1.785% [3]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - Investors are experiencing increased difficulty in the bond market, with the returns from coupon payments being easily offset by short-term interest rate increases [3][4]. - The current environment is characterized by low returns and high volatility, which may persist into the next year [4]. Group 3: Macro Factors - The bond market's decline is attributed to macroeconomic changes and shifts in capital allocation rather than merely the performance of the equity market [5]. - The bond market is seen as vulnerable to systemic changes, with a lack of sustained upward momentum throughout the year [5]. Group 4: Credit Cycle and Risk Appetite - The debt cycle is currently in a "clearing phase," with a noted improvement in market expectations despite negative growth in medium to long-term credit for households and enterprises [6]. - There is a shift in risk appetite, with non-bank deposits reaching historical highs, aligning with the strength of the equity market [6]. Group 5: Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank's emphasis on "preventing empty transfers" suggests a focus on improving the efficiency of fund usage rather than tightening liquidity [7][8]. - Although liquidity is expected to remain loose in the short term, the window for overall easing may be delayed, with potential future measures to stabilize the funding environment [7][8].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market and monetary policy in China, reflecting on the current economic conditions and market sentiment. Key Points and Arguments Monetary Policy and Economic Conditions - The central bank's second-quarter monetary policy report indicates a decrease in the demand for stable growth and an increase in the demand for risk prevention, suggesting a potential tightening of monetary policy in the third quarter [1] - The easing of US-China relations and a 5.3% economic growth in the first half of the year have reduced the pressure for stable growth, leading to a shift in monetary policy from loose to tight [1][5] - The report indicates a more optimistic view on inflation and economic conditions, with a shift from "expected to maintain a low recovery trend" to "moderate recovery, with more positive factors" [4] Bond Market Dynamics - Recent weak financial and economic data have failed to boost market sentiment, as the central bank emphasizes structural policies, shifting economic drivers from real estate to technology and consumption [6] - The bond market is currently experiencing high duration and leverage levels, lacking catalysts for bullish movements, with expectations of tighter monetary policy reducing the likelihood of bond purchases by the central bank in the short term [7] - The strong performance of the A-share market has created a "see-saw effect," negatively impacting bond market sentiment [3] Factors Influencing Bond Market Sentiment - Upcoming tax payment periods and the September 3 military parade may create volatility in the bond market, with the A-share market's healthy structure potentially continuing to suppress bond market risk appetite [8] - Despite some negative factors, overall liquidity remains loose, and the rational pricing of bonds suggests a lower likelihood of significant adjustments [9] Investment Strategy Recommendations - A defensive strategy is recommended, focusing on opportunities for recovery in oversold conditions, with suggestions to reduce duration and consider steepening the yield curve [10] - In credit bonds, emphasis is placed on short-duration bonds, with a cautious approach to extending duration [11] Other Important Insights - The shift in the central bank's attitude reflects broader economic conditions and the changing priorities for stable growth [5] - The current market environment necessitates a reevaluation of traditional asset allocation strategies, as non-bank deposits are flowing into equity assets, altering the dynamics of asset allocation [6]

Group 1 - The report maintains an optimistic view on liquidity for August and September, expecting funding rates to remain low, which will support the bond market [4][7][14] - Seasonal factors indicate that August typically sees continued liquidity, and September's pressure is manageable compared to the previous quarter-end [4][9] - Government bond issuance pressure may increase but is likely to be below expectations due to faster issuance earlier in the year and a lower-than-average pace anticipated for August and September [9][12] Group 2 - The bond market is currently constrained by inflation expectations and low profitability, which may prevent liquidity optimism from driving interest rates down [14][39] - Recent bond market performance shows a recovery trend, with yields on various government bonds declining, indicating a mixed response to market conditions [39][40] - The report suggests focusing on coupon value in bond investments, with caution advised for low liquidity trading products [16][39] Group 3 - High-frequency data indicates a negative year-on-year growth in housing transaction areas, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate market [45][61] - Production data shows mixed trends, with some sectors experiencing increased operational rates while others face declines, highlighting a diverse economic landscape [45][46] - Commodity prices are fluctuating, with oil prices declining and metals like copper and aluminum seeing price increases, indicating varied market dynamics [46][55]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF is experiencing a tight market with active trading and significant capital inflow, indicating a positive outlook for the bond market due to supportive fiscal policies and macroeconomic conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Activity - As of August 8, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF is priced at 123.4 yuan, with a turnover rate of 14.97% and a half-day trading volume of 3.401 billion yuan, reflecting active market participation [1]. - Over the past week, the average daily trading volume for the 30-year Treasury ETF was 8.41 billion yuan [1]. - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF reached 22.72 billion yuan, with a net capital inflow of 395 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The institution suggests a potential price divergence between new and old bonds due to differing tax burdens, leading to a strategy favoring old bonds over new ones [2]. - The attractiveness of bond funds holding older bonds is expected to increase, while the relative value of interest rate bonds may decrease, prompting a shift of funds towards credit bonds and dividend stocks in the medium to long term [2]. Group 3: Economic Support Factors - The bond market is expected to receive support from favorable tax policies for older bonds and credit bonds, with no significant negative impact on ordinary investors [1]. - The central bank may maintain a loose liquidity policy to alleviate fiscal repayment pressures, potentially opening further space for monetary easing [1]. - Current macroeconomic data indicates that the momentum for economic recovery has not significantly improved, reinforcing the bond market's role as a safe-haven asset [1].

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish outlook on the bond market in the short - term, recommending long - duration sinking city investment bonds, capital bonds, city investment dim sum bonds, and US dollar bonds, and strongly promoting perpetual bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng Banks, while also suggesting attention to capital bond opportunities of Tianjin Bank, Beibu Gulf Bank, and China Property Insurance [2] Group 2: Core Views - As of Q2 2025, the total assets of interest - rate bond funds reached 3.6 trillion yuan, a record high since Q1 2023. The bond allocation ratio continued to rise, with the proportion of bonds in the overall asset allocation reaching 97.28%. Active interest - rate bond funds slightly increased their allocation to Treasury bonds and significantly increased their allocation to long - duration bonds. The overall yield of interest - rate bond funds rebounded [2] - In Q2 2025, affected by factors such as the domestic economic adjustment period, relatively loose monetary policy, and institutional allocation demand, the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds declined rapidly and then fluctuated at a low level. The overall scale of interest - rate bond funds only increased slightly. In terms of heavy - position bond allocation, the scale and proportion of various types of bonds changed little, but the strategy leaned towards long - duration bonds [2] - In late July, the bond market adjusted. The report believes that going long in the bond market is currently the path of least resistance. In August, the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds may gradually return to around 1.65%, and the yield of 5 - year national and joint - stock second - tier bonds may fall below 1.9%. There are few negative factors in the current bond market, and the new tax regulations may push up the demand for old government bonds and financial bonds, lowering yields [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Interest - rate Bond Fund Scale and Asset Allocation - As of Q2 2025, the total assets of interest - rate bond funds were 3.6 trillion yuan, with active and passive interest - rate bond funds at 2.4 trillion and 1.2 trillion yuan respectively, increasing by 0.07 trillion and 0.13 trillion yuan compared to Q1 2025. In terms of asset allocation, bonds accounted for 97.28% (about 3.5 trillion yuan), and cash accounted for 0.91% (about 0.03 trillion yuan), with the proportions increasing by 0.30 and 0.17 percentage points respectively compared to the previous quarter [2] Active Interest - rate Bond Fund Heavy - position Bond Allocation - In Q2 2025, among the top five heavy - position bonds of active interest - rate bond funds, the scale proportions of policy - financial bonds, Treasury bonds, commercial - financial bonds, and local government bonds were 90.3%, 8.1%, 0.7%, and 0.5% respectively. Compared with Q1, there was a slight increase in Treasury bond allocation and a decrease in policy - financial bond allocation, with the proportions changing by + 2.0 and - 2.7 percentage points respectively [2] Interest - rate Bond Fund Duration Changes - From Q1 to Q2 2025, the duration of interest - rate bond funds calculated based on heavy - position bonds rose rapidly from 3.32 years to 3.95 years. The average duration of heavy - position Treasury bonds of active interest - rate bond funds increased significantly to 9.34 years. Active interest - rate bond funds increased their allocation to bonds with a maturity of over 10 years, and the scale proportion of 30 - year Treasury bonds in heavy - position Treasury bonds increased from 11.4% to 27.1% [2] Yield of Bond Funds - The average annualized yield of interest - rate bond funds in Q2 2025 rebounded by 5.65 percentage points to 3.96% from - 1.69% in Q1 2025. The annualized yield of credit - bond funds in H1 2025 (1.92%) was higher than that of interest - rate bond funds (1.10%) [2] Investment Strategy Changes in Q2 2025 - Affected by multiple factors, the overall scale of interest - rate bond funds only increased slightly. In terms of heavy - position bond allocation, the strategy leaned towards long - duration bonds to seek higher returns [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.12%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices fell by 0.13% and 0.52% respectively, and the North China 50 Index rose by 0.43% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 1.2062 trillion yuan, an increase of 132.7 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Bond Market Dynamics - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 160.7 billion yuan at a stable interest rate of 1.40% [1] - The yields on major bonds showed slight fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.5 basis points to 1.699%, while the 10-year policy bank bond yield increased by 0.1 basis points to 1.796% [1] - The bond market has experienced significant volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from a low of 1.64% in early July to a peak of 1.75% at the end of July before retreating [1] Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts suggest that despite a hot equity market, the underlying economic fundamentals remain weak, leading to a cautious outlook for the bond market, which is expected to fluctuate within a range of 1.6% to 1.8% for the 10-year government bond yield [2] - The sentiment in the market is more stable compared to the redemption environment of 2022, with institutional views leaning towards a bullish stance [2] - Huaxi Securities indicates that opportunities for a bond bull market are emerging, recommending extending duration positions [3] Strategic Insights - Analysts recommend maintaining a neutral to slightly high duration strategy in the bond market, as recent policy expectations have cooled and economic indicators suggest a weak reality [4] - The current market risk appetite has increased, limiting the potential for significant interest rate declines, while also constraining the upward movement of rates due to the unstable economic fundamentals [4] - The 30-year government bond ETF, launched in March 2024, is highlighted as a significant investment vehicle, tracking the performance of the 30-year government bond index [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is still in a long - position channel in the second half of 2025. The exchange - rate constraint has weakened significantly. With the coordinated efforts of monetary and fiscal policies, liquidity is expected to remain loose. The decline in institutional liability costs is expected to bring incremental funds to the bond market. The weak economic fundamentals suggest a low possibility of short - term fiscal policy intensification, and inflation improvement may occur in the fourth quarter [1]. - The allocation value of 10 - year treasury bonds is prominent. They are suitable for asset allocation, with better market depth and breadth. Compared with medium - short - term and ultra - long - term treasury bonds, they have advantages in duration and risk - return ratio [1]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - year Treasury Bond Index can connect treasury bond futures and spot markets. It has high return stability, low volatility, and low risk [1]. - The Guotai Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - year Treasury Bond ETF has investment value, including low fees, good tracking effect, scarcity, diverse trading mechanisms, and excellent investment performance [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Review of the Interest - Rate Bond Market in the First Half of 2025 - The yield curve of treasury bonds first experienced a "bear - flat" and then a "bull - flat" trend. In Q1 2025, long - term bonds corrected due to tightened funds and bank liability pressure. In April 2025, the bond market quickly turned bullish. From May to June 2025, after the yield declined to a low level, the focus was on exploring spreads [7]. - The bond market in 2025 has three new features: the central bank's policy rate is the bottom of the money market; short - term bonds perform weakly, and long - term bonds are difficult to trade; the overall fundamentals are stable, but tariff pulses have a large impact [13]. 3.1.2 The Bond Market Remains in a Long - Position Channel in the Second Half of 2025 - Liquidity is expected to remain loose in July. The decline in institutional liability costs will bring incremental funds to the bond market, including the reset of bank time deposits and the potential reduction of insurance product preset interest rates [17][21]. - The weak economic fundamentals suggest a low possibility of short - term fiscal policy intensification. Inflation may bottom out in the third quarter, and improvement may occur in the fourth quarter. The bond market is still in a long - position window, but the odds are limited, and the current trading logic may continue to focus on exploring spreads [1][29]. 3.1.3 The Allocation Value of 10 - Year Treasury Bonds is Prominent - 10 - year treasury bonds are suitable for asset allocation as their pricing is based on fundamentals, and their pricing logic is different from that of stocks and commodities [37]. - The 10 - year treasury bond market has better depth and breadth, with large scale, wide participation, high trading activity, and a good futures - spot linkage effect. Its market position may be further consolidated in the future [45]. - Compared with medium - short - term treasury bonds, 10 - year treasury bonds have duration offensive advantages and a coupon safety cushion. Compared with ultra - long - term treasury bonds, they have a better risk - return ratio [49][57]. 3.2 Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - Year Treasury Bond Index: A Bridge Connecting Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Index Compilation Scheme - The index was launched on March 7, 2013. Its sample bonds are treasury bonds listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange with a remaining maturity between 6.5 and 10.25 years. It uses market - value weighting to reflect the overall performance of treasury bonds in the corresponding maturity range in the Shanghai market [64]. - The specific compilation scheme includes sample bond selection, index calculation, and sample adjustment (regular and temporary adjustments) [67]. 3.2.2 Basic Index Features - The index has high return stability, low volatility, and low risk. Since the base period, its cumulative return has reached 85.76%, with an annualized return of 4.82%, a maximum drawdown of - 6.86%, and an annualized volatility of 2.87% [71]. - All sample bonds are deliverable bonds for T contracts. The index has high concentration, and its duration is generally between 7 and 7.4 years, currently at 7.61 years [74][78]. 3.3 Guotai Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF 3.3.1 Basic Information - The fund was established on August 4, 2017, by Guotai Fund, with Wang Yu and Wang Zhenyang as fund managers. As of July 18, 2025, its scale is 15.547 billion yuan. The management fee and custody fee are 0.15% and 0.05% respectively [80]. - It is one of the bond funds with the lowest fees, and as an on - exchange product, it does not charge subscription or redemption fees [83]. 3.3.2 Investment Method - The fund mainly invests in the constituent treasury bonds and alternative constituent treasury bonds of the target index (with a proportion of not less than 90% of the fund's net asset value). It uses an optimized sampling replication method to track the target index, aiming for an annualized tracking error of no more than 2%. Since its establishment, the annualized tracking error has been 1.43% [84][87]. 3.3.3 The Only Product Tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - Year Treasury Bond Index in the Market - Currently, most domestic interest - rate bond index funds cover policy - financial bond indices, and long - duration interest - rate bond indices and treasury bond indices are relatively scarce. The Guotai Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF is the only product tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - year Treasury Bond Index, with scarcity [91]. 3.3.4 Trading Mechanism - The fund can be traded on the secondary market, and its IOPV is publicly announced, supporting T + 0 trading. It has sufficient liquidity, and the deviation between IOPV and trading price is low [97]. - The fund also supports physical redemption and has a pledge - repurchase business, with a current conversion ratio of about 94.48%, which meets the refinancing needs of investors [102]. 3.3.5 Investment Performance - Since its establishment, the fund has an annualized return of 4.01%, a maximum drawdown of - 4.56%, an annualized volatility of 2.45%, a Calmar ratio of 0.88, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.03. It has achieved positive returns for six consecutive years, and its maximum annual drawdown is generally no more than 3% [103]. - In the past three years, its return has led 92.30% of interest - rate bond index funds [107]. 3.4 Fund Manager Information 3.4.1 Fund Manager Introduction - Guotai Fund was established in March 1998, one of the first batch of standardized fund management companies in China. It has a complete product line and various business qualifications, with a total asset management scale of 114.34 billion yuan [111]. 3.4.2 Fund Manager Introduction - Wang Yu has a master's degree, joined Guotai Fund in January 2016, and currently manages 10 products with a total scale of 23.148 billion yuan [112]. - Wang Zhenyang has a master's degree, joined Guotai Fund in December 2024, and currently manages 4 products with a total scale of 23.302 billion yuan [115].

Economic Overview - The GDP growth rate for Q2 has slightly decreased from 5.4% in Q1 to 5.2%, indicating a stable yet high economic performance [1] - Nominal GDP growth has dropped from 4.6% in Q1 to 3.9% in Q2, reflecting weaker price levels [1] Investment and Consumption Trends - Fixed asset investment growth fell to -0.1% in June from 2.7% in May, with declines in infrastructure and manufacturing investments [2] - Real estate investment growth decreased by 12.9% year-on-year in June, while real estate sales area also saw a decline of 5.5% [2] - Retail sales growth for the first half of the year was around 5%, but June saw a drop to 4.8% from 6.4% in May, partly due to earlier consumption during the "618" shopping festival [2] Trade Performance - Export growth in June was strong at 5.8% year-on-year, surpassing expectations, while imports grew by 1.1% [3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, particularly from the U.S., may impact future export performance [3][4] U.S. Economic Impact - The U.S. experienced significant inventory accumulation in the first half of the year, which could lead to reduced import demand if domestic consumption weakens [4] - If U.S. consumer demand does not keep pace with import growth, it may result in inventory buildup and subsequent import declines [4] Policy and Economic Projections - The GDP growth target for the year remains at 5%, with a potential slowdown in the second half projected at around 4.7% [4] - The likelihood of strong policy stimulus in the second half is considered low, suggesting a more challenging economic environment [5] Investment Recommendations - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as a favorable investment option due to its low fees and higher coupon rates compared to shorter-duration bonds [5]

Group 1 - The public fund reports for the second quarter have begun to be disclosed, with notable reports from Guoyuan Securities and Huian Fund [1][2] - Fund managers are shifting strategies towards holding bonds for coupon income as equity markets recover and risk appetite slowly increases [1][2] - There is a significant increase in the allocation of corporate bonds by fund managers, with Guoyuan's fund allocating 75.09% of its bond market value to corporate bonds, and Huian's fund increasing its allocation to 31.50% [1][2] Group 2 - The Huian fund manager noted a gradual desensitization to overseas tariff disturbances, leading to a slight rebound in long-term interest rates, with a focus on holding bonds for coupon income [2] - The net value growth rates for Huian's fund A and C shares were 0.96% and 0.91%, respectively, while Guoyuan's fund had a growth rate of 0.79% [2] - Fund managers remain optimistic about the bond market's performance in the second half of the year, anticipating continued strength if liquidity remains ample [2][3] Group 3 - The bond market faced significant redemptions in the second quarter, with many bond funds experiencing large outflows [3] - Guoyuan's fund reported a total subscription of 54.95 million shares and redemptions of 284 million shares during the second quarter [3] - Fund managers believe that the economic recovery will take time, which may present investment opportunities in the bond market [3] Group 4 - Analysis from Bosera Fund indicates that low funding rates reflect the central bank's accommodative stance, with a focus on reducing costs to protect bank interest margins [4] - It is expected that the funding environment will remain loose in the short term, which is favorable for the bond market [4]