Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in gold prices, highlighting a drop below $4,350 per ounce, with a current price of $4,337.97 per ounce, marking a daily decrease of 3.54% [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - On March 23, spot gold prices fell to $4,337.97 per ounce, down 3.54% from the previous day [1][2]. - The London gold (spot gold) CFD showed a price of $4,337.97, reflecting a decrease of $159.01 or 3.54% [2]. - The gold futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange experienced a significant weekly decline of 9.62%, the largest drop in 15 years, while silver futures fell by 14.36% [3]. Group 2: Market Influences - Rising international oil prices have reignited concerns about global inflation, contributing to an increase in the dollar index and prompting central banks worldwide to adopt hawkish stances [3]. - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, experiencing its third consecutive week of decline [3].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have led to a decline, with spot gold dropping below $4600 per ounce, marking a six-week low [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - On March 20, gold prices experienced a slight rebound, briefly surpassing $4700 per ounce, but the gains were limited by the time of reporting [2]. - The gold price changes have significantly influenced consumer sentiment, with a noticeable split in purchasing behavior; some consumers are hesitant due to previous losses, while others are looking to buy at lower prices [4]. - The market has seen a decrease in foot traffic, with fewer consumers visiting gold markets, indicating a more rational approach to purchasing compared to previous trends where price drops led to increased buying [4][5]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers expressed mixed feelings about gold purchases, with some believing in gold's value retention despite high prices, while others are waiting for more favorable conditions to buy [4]. - Merchants have noted a surprising lack of demand despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which typically drive gold prices up [4]. Group 3: Price Adjustments and Market Dynamics - As of March 20, the price of gold jewelry was around 1220 RMB per gram, with branded gold jewelry prices dropping to approximately 1445 RMB per gram, down from over 1700 RMB per gram at the end of January [4]. - Several banks have begun tightening their gold trading operations, indicating a potential industry trend towards reducing exposure to gold investments due to perceived risks [6]. Group 4: Investment Trends - Despite recent price declines, the World Gold Council reported a net inflow of $5.3 billion into global gold ETFs in February, marking the strongest start to the year historically [7]. - The total assets under management (AUM) in global gold investments reached a record high of $701 billion, with total holdings at 4171 tons [7]. - International investment banks maintain a positive long-term outlook on gold prices, suggesting confidence in the asset's future performance [7].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closing at 25,500.58 points and 8,695.88 points, down 2.0% and 1.6% respectively[1] - Total trading volume in Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 306.2 billion, an increase of 27.4% from the previous day's HKD 240.4 billion, indicating some investors' urgency to reduce holdings[1] Sector Performance - The energy sector index rose by 2.8%, while materials, information technology, and real estate sectors fell by 7.7%, 4.5%, and 3.1% respectively[1] - Among blue-chip stocks, CNOOC (883 HK) and Xiaomi Group (1810 HK) led gains, rising by 4.5% and 3.4% respectively; while Zijin Mining (2899 HK) and Tencent Holdings (700 HK) saw declines of 7.1% and 6.8%[1] Economic Implications - Ongoing attacks on Middle Eastern energy production facilities are exacerbating supply constraints, leading to sustained high commodity prices, which may increase global inflation and the likelihood of interest rate hikes[2] - Gold prices have dropped from USD 5,200 to below USD 4,700, negatively impacting metal prices[2] Real Estate and Investment Strategies - The real estate market, particularly in Hong Kong, is expected to be affected by interest rate fluctuations, with major developers like Henderson Land (12 HK), Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK), and New World Development (17 HK) experiencing declines of 2.4% to 4.1%[2] - Defensive investors may consider high-dividend Hong Kong stocks like Hong Kong Telecom (6823 HK) amid market volatility[2] U.S. Economic Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week was 205,000, lower than the previous week's 213,000 and market expectations of 215,000[3]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the escalation involving Iran, is having significant spillover effects on global markets, leading to declines in major stock indices and rising energy prices [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - U.S. stock indices experienced a collective decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.89%, Nasdaq down 0.66%, and S&P 500 down 0.67% as of the latest report [2]. - European markets also saw significant drops, with Germany's DAX30 down 0.82% and the UK's FTSE 100 down 1.08% [2]. - Cryptocurrency markets faced a sharp downturn, with Bitcoin dropping nearly 3% and Ethereum falling over 4% [2]. Group 2: Energy Market Impact - Iran's military response to attacks on its energy infrastructure has raised concerns about global energy security, with Brent crude oil prices having increased over 70% this year, largely due to these tensions [3][4]. - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to further increases in energy prices, with analysts predicting Brent crude could stabilize between $95 to $110 per barrel, and possibly rise by an additional $10 to $20 if major refineries are attacked [4]. Group 3: Chemical Industry Responses - BASF announced a price increase of up to 30% for household care, industrial cleaning, and industrial formulation products in Europe, citing rising raw material and logistics costs as primary reasons [4][5]. - The German chemical industry is experiencing supply chain disruptions due to the conflict, with initial signs indicating that the war is impacting the availability of key materials [5].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, domestic commodities continued to rise, with most industrial and agricultural products following the upward trend. Driven by the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, international oil prices soared, leading to a collective increase in the energy and chemical sectors, and other sectors were also affected to some extent [3]. - The situation in Iran remains unclear, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has basically come to a standstill, causing global energy prices to continue to soar under uncertainty. Global inflation is facing rebound pressure, and the IMF warns that if oil prices rise by 10% throughout the year, global inflation may be pushed up by about 40 basis points, with emerging markets being particularly vulnerable. The agricultural supply chain has been impacted, and fertilizer prices have risen by over 20%. American farmers will also be forced to adjust their planting structures [3]. - The US Trade Representative announced a new round of trade investigations against 16 major trading partners, including China and the EU, and may impose new punitive tariffs or other trade restrictions [3]. - In February, the US CPI rose by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose by 2.5%, the smallest increase in nearly five years since March 2021. However, the impact of soaring oil prices has not been factored in. The impact of oil prices on inflation is divided into two levels: the direct impact may push the overall CPI in March to over 3% year - on - year, and the indirect transmission will penetrate into core inflation through cost - push and inflation expectations [3]. - In February, China's CPI rose by 1.3% year - on - year, and the PPI fell by 0.9% year - on - year. Affected by the Middle East geopolitical conflict, international crude oil prices have risen significantly since March, and the rise in energy - related industrial product prices may significantly push up the overall PPI. It is expected that the year - on - year PPI in March will continue to recover, and the PPI growth rate is expected to turn positive in the second quarter [3]. - From January to February 2026, China's foreign trade had a strong start, with the import and export scale reaching a record high for the same period. In US dollars, the total import and export value in the first two months was $1.09954 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 21.0%. Exports were $656.58 billion, a year - on - year increase of 21.8%, and imports were $442.96 billion, a year - on - year increase of 19.8% [3]. - In February, the year - on - year increase in social financing decreased. Under the high base, government bond issuance decreased year - on - year, while credit and undiscounted acceptance bills supported the year - on - year increase in social financing. Loan disbursement decreased seasonally in February, but the year - on - year decrease narrowed, mainly due to the corporate sector [3]. Group 3: Overseas Situation Analysis - The situation in Iran remains unclear, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has basically stopped, leading to a continuous rise in global energy prices. Global inflation is under rebound pressure, and the agricultural supply chain has been affected, with fertilizer prices rising by over 20% [3]. - The US will conduct a new round of trade investigations against 16 major trading partners, including China and the EU, and may impose new punitive tariffs or other trade restrictions [3]. - In February, the US CPI rose by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose by 2.5%, the smallest increase in nearly five years since March 2021. The impact of soaring oil prices on inflation has not been factored in, and it may push the overall CPI in March to over 3% year - on - year [3] Group 4: Domestic Situation Analysis - In February, China's CPI rose by 1.3% year - on - year, and the PPI fell by 0.9% year - on - year. Affected by the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the PPI is expected to continue to recover in March and turn positive in the second quarter [3]. - From January to February 2026, China's foreign trade had a strong start, with the import and export scale reaching a record high for the same period. Exports increased by 21.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 19.8% year - on - year [3]. - In February, the year - on - year increase in social financing decreased. Government bond issuance decreased year - on - year, while credit and undiscounted acceptance bills supported the year - on - year increase in social financing. Loan disbursement decreased seasonally, but the year - on - year decrease narrowed, mainly due to the corporate sector [3] Group 5: High - Frequency Data Tracking - The operating rates of the polyester industry chain and blast furnaces are presented in the data, such as the operating rate of PTA in the polyester industry chain being 82% - 85% [34][36]. - The sales data of manufacturers, including wholesale and retail, and their year - on - year changes are shown [40]. - The prices of agricultural products, such as the average wholesale prices of 28 key - monitored vegetables, fruits, and pork, are provided [45][46]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing chaos in the Middle East and its implications for global oil prices, suggesting that investors should prepare for a prolonged period of high oil prices and the associated impacts on the market [2]. Group 1: Key Events and Developments - The U.S. military launched an attack on Iran's critical oil export location, Halke Island, which is vital for Iran's economy as over 90% of its oil exports pass through this area [7][10]. - The attack on Halke Island could lead to a significant short-term oil supply shortage globally, as Iran lacks alternative export routes due to geographical constraints [10][11]. - The U.S. is attempting to pressure Iran into negotiations by targeting its economic lifeline, but this could escalate tensions further if not managed carefully [12][13]. Group 2: Global Economic Implications - Many countries, including Vietnam, Thailand, and Pakistan, are implementing measures to reduce oil consumption, indicating a broader concern over energy supply amid rising oil prices [19][20][25]. - The article notes that the upcoming financial reports from major companies like Tencent and Alibaba are crucial, especially in the context of the current economic climate influenced by geopolitical tensions [5]. - The global central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, are expected to make critical announcements regarding interest rates, which could be complicated by the ongoing Middle East situation [5][6]. Group 3: Currency and Market Reactions - There are rumors regarding the use of the Chinese yuan for oil transactions, although the credibility of these claims is questioned due to a lack of reliable sources [27][30]. - Despite the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, the Chinese yuan has remained relatively stable, suggesting resilience in the face of global economic pressures [38][39]. - The article highlights a shift in market sentiment, with some investors turning bullish on the Hang Seng Tech Index, indicating a potential opportunity in the tech sector despite broader market volatility [40].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the gold industry is "Oscillating" [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global inflation pressure is rising, and rising interest rates are putting pressure on gold [1] - Short - term gold price trends are weakly oscillating, and investors should wait for a pull - back to buy. The slowdown in RMB appreciation may keep the domestic gold market at a small premium [5] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The domestic basis (spot - futures) was - 1.75 yuan/gram, with a weekly change of 0.59 yuan and a change rate of - 25.2%. The domestic - foreign futures price difference (domestic - foreign) was 18.19 yuan/gram, with a change of 26.49 yuan and a change rate of - 319.1%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 0.4% to 105,417 kg, and the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.60% to 32,551,562 ounces. The SPDR ETF holding decreased by 0.16% to 1,071.56 tons. The CFTC gold speculative net long position increased by 1.4% to 102,236 lots. The U.S. Treasury yield rose 3.1% to 4.28%, the dollar index rose 1.56% to 100.50, the SOFR decreased by 0.3% to 3.65%, the U.S. 10 - year break - even interest rate rose 1.17% to 2.3796%, the S&P 500 index fell 1.6% to 6,632, the VIX volatility index fell 7.8% to 27.2, the gold cross - market arbitrage trading increased 2.4% to 7.0, and the U.S. 10 - year real interest rate rose 6.2% to 1.90% [11] 2. Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 2.1 U.S. Financial Market - The dollar index rose 1.39%, and the U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.28%. The S&P 500 index fell 1.6%, and the VIX index fell to 27. The U.S. overnight secured financing rate was 3.65%, and the oil price rose 9.8% with the U.S. inflation expectation at 2.38% [15][17] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed country stock markets mostly fell, with the S&P 500 down 1.6%. Developing country stock markets mostly fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.7%. The real interest rate rose to 1.89%, and the gold price fell 2.9%. The spot commodity index rose, and the dollar index rose 1.39%. The euro depreciated 1.77%, the pound depreciated 1.38%, the yen depreciated 1.24%, and the Swiss franc depreciated 1.95%. The U.S. and German bonds rose, with a U.S. - German yield spread of 1.29%. The UK Treasury yield was 4.82%, and the Japanese bond yield was 2.26%. The dollar index rose 1.41% to 98.9, and non - U.S. currencies depreciated [21][22][27] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - Gold speculative position data is presented, and the SPDR gold ETF holding fell to 1,071 tons. The RMB stopped appreciating and started to depreciate, and the domestic market turned to a premium. Gold and silver prices fell, and the gold - silver ratio rose to 62.3 [34][37] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's February retail sales and industrial added - value data; Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate meeting decision; Wednesday: U.S. February PPI and Bank of Canada interest rate meeting decision; Thursday: Federal Reserve, ECB, and Bank of England interest rate meetings; Friday: China's March LPR [37]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing uncertainties in the international oil market, particularly due to the recent U.S.-Iran conflict, which has led to significant fluctuations in oil prices and potential supply disruptions [3][5]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - On March 9, WTI and Brent crude oil futures surged approximately 30%, reaching nearly $120 per barrel, the highest since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in March 2022 [3]. - By 6:20 PM, WTI and Brent prices settled at around $102 and $104 per barrel, respectively, with fluctuations of about 12% [3]. - The $100 per barrel mark is seen as a critical psychological threshold for market participants [3]. Group 2: Supply Chain Disruptions - The conflict has raised concerns about the safety of oil and LNG transport through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for approximately 20% of global energy supply, with about 15 million barrels per day passing through in 2025 [4]. - The shipping lane has reportedly been nearly stagnant for seven consecutive days, indicating severe disruptions in oil transport [4]. Group 3: Strategic Reserves and Economic Impact - The G7 is considering a coordinated release of strategic oil reserves to mitigate the impact of rising oil prices due to escalating tensions in the Middle East [5]. - The core economic impact of the U.S.-Iran conflict hinges on the operational status of the Strait of Hormuz, with potential supply chain disruptions leading to increased costs and inflationary pressures globally [5][6]. Group 4: Potential Scenarios - Three potential scenarios for the conflict's evolution and their impacts on the oil market are outlined: 1. **Short-term De-escalation**: If the conflict cools within a month, Brent prices may drop to $70-80 per barrel, but concerns over future supply may keep prices elevated [6]. 2. **Prolonged Low-Intensity Conflict**: If negotiations stall, the Strait may remain partially obstructed for 1-3 months, leading to a supply tightening of 2-4 million barrels per day, with WTI prices fluctuating between $91-100 per barrel [6]. 3. **Long-term High-Intensity Conflict**: A severe and prolonged conflict could result in a supply shock of 7-10 million barrels per day, pushing WTI prices to between $118-148 per barrel [6][7]. Group 5: Broader Economic Implications - Long-term high oil prices could exacerbate global inflation, leading to reduced consumer spending and economic downturns, similar to the impacts observed during the Russia-Ukraine conflict [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is escalating, significantly affecting global commodity markets, especially energy and metal markets. The continuous conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, along with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has led to supply disruptions and price fluctuations in various commodities [2]. - The US labor market shows weakness, with negative employment growth and rising unemployment rate in February, which impacts the performance of precious metals and other commodities [3]. - The performance of different commodities varies. Some are affected by supply - demand changes, while others are influenced by geopolitical factors, energy prices, and policy expectations. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices soared on March 9. With the Middle East situation escalating, the Strait of Hormuz shipping is blocked, causing supply disruptions. Iraq cut about 1.5 million barrels per day of production, and Kuwait reduced 100,000 barrels per day. Geopolitical risks will continue to support oil prices [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors will continue to drive energy products. Fuel oil will maintain a high geopolitical premium and fluctuate significantly with crude oil [22]. - **Asphalt**: International oil price increases will boost the domestic asphalt market. Refineries may cut production due to concerns about raw material shortages. The revised asphalt production in March decreased by 220,000 tons. The market has a bullish sentiment [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: The US employment data is poor, and the precious metals are in a high - level historical shock pattern. The sharp rise in crude oil brings inflation and economic uncertainties, and there is a risk of liquidity shock from the global stock market decline [3]. - **Copper**: The copper price followed the short - term rise of precious metals but then focused on high - oil - price risks. The Middle East war may affect economic growth and AI - related investments. The copper price is expected to adjust to 98,000 yuan [4]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic aluminum inventory is at a high level, but the Middle East situation intensifies overseas shortage concerns. The aluminum price fluctuates at a high level, and it is necessary to avoid chasing up and selling down [5]. - **Zinc**: European energy prices have soared, and the cost of LME zinc has increased. In the domestic "Golden March and Silver April" season, the actual destocking performance needs to be tracked. The domestic zinc supply exceeds demand, and the Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [8]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market is mainly in the range of consolidation, and the trading is active. The nickel inventory has increased, and the market lacks independent driving force and gradually weakens [10]. - **Tin**: The tin price has a strong two - way fluctuation, and the domestic inventory has decreased. The supply is mainly based on the resumption of supply rhythm, and attention should be paid to the MA60 moving average [11]. Chemicals - **Polycarbonate**: The price of polycarbonate rebounds in shock, and the market maintains a certain activity. The total inventory decreases, and the mining end price is strong. The short - term uncertainty is extremely high [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The price support logic weakens, and the market is dominated by fundamentals. The domestic polysilicon production capacity is in excess, and the demand recovery is less than expected. The price may approach the cash cost in the short term [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price of industrial silicon rises slightly. The cost increase expectation is enhanced. The supply is expected to increase, and the short - term market sentiment is strong, but the disk may face hedging pressure [14]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean, Soybean Meal, and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean meal continued to increase in position and price on the night of last Friday. The international situation is tense, and the oil price is high, which drives the soybean price to be strong. Attention should be paid to the USDA report on March 11 [36]. - **Edible Oils**: The prices of domestic agricultural products generally rise. The Middle East geopolitical situation increases the planting cost and affects the supply of fertilizers. The supply of old - crop agricultural products is not tight, and attention should be paid to the impact on new - crop costs and the supply chain [37]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures continued to be strong last Friday night. The state reserve has been actively trading corn. The US corn is in a bottom - shock and strong trend. Pay attention to the grain sales progress in Northeast China [39]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: The pig futures are weak in the near - term and strong in the far - term. The spot price continues to decline slightly. The pig price is at the bottom of the bear market, and the inventory pressure needs to be resolved. The egg price is rising, and the egg inventory is in a downward trend [40][41]. Others - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is dominated by geopolitical sentiment, and the market fluctuates sharply. The impact of the US - Iran conflict on the European line supply - demand pattern is limited. The fuel cost increase may push up the shipping price [21]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market oscillated higher, and the futures index contracts all rose. The market style may rotate to stable and financial sectors. The relatively strong RMB exchange rate may support the A - share market [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures oscillated horizontally, and the curve flattened slightly. The market lacks incremental information. The curve may show short - term narrow - range oscillation and medium - term flattening [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East, especially the situation in Iran, are having a significant impact on global commodity markets, including energy, metals, and agricultural products. The ongoing conflicts and uncertainties are driving up prices and causing market volatility [2][3][22]. - The performance of different commodities varies. Some are experiencing price increases due to supply disruptions or cost - push factors, while others are facing challenges such as oversupply or weak demand [13][15]. - The market is closely watching geopolitical developments, policy signals, and economic data to assess future trends and make investment decisions. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices soared on March 9. The situation in the Middle East has led to supply disruptions, with Iraq cutting about 1.5 million barrels per day and Kuwait reducing 100,000 barrels per day. Geopolitical risks will continue to support oil prices [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors will keep fuel oil at a high geopolitical premium and cause it to fluctuate significantly with crude oil [22]. - **Asphalt**: International oil price increases are expected to boost the BU. Refineries may cut production due to concerns about raw material shortages. The market's bullish sentiment is rising [23]. - **Urea**: International prices are rising, while domestic prices are stable. Supply and demand are both increasing, and the market is expected to oscillate within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: After the weekend conflict escalated, methanol is expected to run strongly on Monday. Supply may shrink, and the market is concerned about downstream demand [25]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: The US employment data was worse than expected, and the precious metals market is in a high - level oscillation pattern. There are concerns about the impact of stock market declines on liquidity [3]. - **Copper**: Copper prices followed the rise of precious metals but then turned to focus on high - oil - price risks. The short - term price may adjust downward [4]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic aluminum market is in a strong - oscillation pattern. The high inventory and weak spot feedback coexist with overseas shortage concerns [5]. - **Zinc**: European energy prices have risen, and the cost of LME zinc has increased. The domestic zinc market has an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel market is mainly in a range - bound arrangement, and the short - term trend is driven by policy sentiment and will gradually weaken [10]. - **Tin**: The tin price has shown strong two - way fluctuations. The market is concerned about global economic growth risks, and the supply side is mainly about the resumption of supply [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is oscillating and rebounding. The total inventory is decreasing, but the speed has slowed down. The short - term uncertainty is high [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The industry is facing overcapacity, and the price is under pressure. It may approach the cash cost in the short term [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price has risen slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the market may face hedging pressure when the price rises [14]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy signals [16]. - **Coke**: The price has risen. The coking profit is average, and the inventory has increased slightly. The price may be affected by geopolitical factors [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price has risen. The supply is abundant, and the price may be affected by geopolitical factors. The Mongolian coal customs clearance data is at a high level, which suppresses the price [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price is oscillating strongly. The cost is supported by the increase in manganese ore freight, and the demand is slowly increasing [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is oscillating strongly. The demand has some resilience, and the supply has little change. The market has high expectations for the next - month's policy [20]. Chemicals - **Pure Benzene**: The cost is strongly supported, and the supply is expected to decrease. The market is expected to run strongly [26]. - **Styrene**: There is a supply gap overseas, and the supply in the domestic market will decrease slightly. The demand has recovered, and the supply - demand situation has strengthened [27]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The supply of propylene is expected to decrease, and the price is rising. The polyethylene market is digesting the price increase, and the supply of polypropylene is expected to decrease [28]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is running strongly, and the supply has some uncertainties. Caustic soda is running strongly, and the industry profit has been significantly repaired [29]. - **PX and PTA**: The cost is strongly supported, and the price is rising. The downstream polyester has not fully recovered, and there may be negative feedback if the situation eases [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is long - term pressure from new capacity, but there may be a phased improvement in supply and demand. The price is rising due to the situation in the Middle East [31]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: They are running strongly in the short term, following the raw materials. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the development of the situation and the recovery of the terminal [32]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean, Bean Meal, and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of bean meal is rising, and the price of US soybeans is also strong. Geopolitical factors are supporting the price of imported soybeans [36]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The prices of agricultural products are rising. Geopolitical factors are increasing the planting cost and affecting the supply - demand pattern. Attention should be paid to the impact on new - crop production [37]. - **Soybean (Domestic)**: The price is rising. The supply has increased marginally, but there was a failed auction. Geopolitical factors are affecting the price [38]. - **Corn**: The price is running strongly. The purchase and sales of the state reserve are active, and attention should be paid to the sales progress in the Northeast [39]. - **Pig**: The futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The spot price is at a low level, and the inventory needs to be reduced. The long - term valuation may increase due to capacity reduction [40]. - **Egg**: The spot price is rising. The chicken inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to rise in the long term [41]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price is oscillating at a low level, and the Chinese cotton market is oscillating. The domestic demand is recovering, and attention should be paid to inventory digestion and demand performance [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is oscillating. The production in India is progressing fast, while that in Thailand is slow. The domestic sugar market is affected by production expectations [43]. - **Apple**: The futures price has risen significantly. The demand in the Northwest is good, but the quality and inventory in Shandong are problematic. Attention should be paid to future demand [43]. - **Timber**: The price is oscillating. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is gradually recovering. The low inventory supports the price [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The port inventory is at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, and the cost has some support. The demand is average, and the price may oscillate in the medium term [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is oscillating higher. The futures index has risen, and the basis is in a discount state. The reform measures and geopolitical situation are affecting the market, and the RMB exchange rate is relatively strong, supporting the market [46]. - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury bond futures are oscillating horizontally. The market lacks new information, and the trading activity has decreased. The curve may oscillate in the short term and flatten in the medium term [47].