智通财经APP获悉，根据华尔街分析师们对于英国股债市场的最新看法，英国最新一轮政治闹剧对该国资产走势相 当不利，随着一份充满争议的预算案临近，英国金融市场不确定性正在累积，市场波动正在加剧——暴跌与暴涨可 能随时切换。 英国资产承压 市场对有传言称英国卫生大臣韦斯·斯特里廷(Wes Streeting)正计划挑战首相基尔·斯塔默(Keir Starmer)的领导地位最 初反应不大，但华尔街策略师们警告称，从长期来看，这类传闻并无助益，甚至有可能重创英国资产。斯特里廷随 后迅速否认了相关指控，称其"并不属实"。 "政治不确定性对英镑和英国国债(也被称作金边债)都不是好事。"来自荷兰合作银行的外汇策略主管Jane Foley表 示。这些传言使得英镑周三在G-10外汇(十国集团货币)表现排行榜中接近垫底位置，"在一份很可能相当黯淡的英国 预算案出台之前，更加恶化了整体情绪，"她补充表示。 截至发稿，英镑下跌0.4%，报1英镑兑1.3105美元。10年期英国国债收益率上升3个基点，收复了前一日部分跌幅。 这一事件发生在政府计划于11月26日公布预算案的数周之前。外界普遍预测英国财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯(Rachel R ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the concept of living in a deflationary country while investing in inflationary assets, highlighting the potential benefits of such a strategy [4][6][8] - The article emphasizes the importance of finding inflationary assets that can maintain or increase value in an inflationary environment, categorizing them into seven types [17][31] - It provides examples of successful cases, such as Swiss and Japanese high-net-worth individuals who have effectively invested overseas while residing in low-inflation environments [10][12][14] Group 2 - The article outlines three conditions necessary for effective cross-border asset allocation: the ability to allocate assets internationally, living in a stable or deflationary country without compromising quality of life, and ensuring investment targets are decoupled from the local deflation [10] - It identifies seven categories of inflationary assets, including precious metals, commodities, high pricing power stocks, emerging market stocks, inflation-linked bonds, rental real estate, and technology stocks in deflationary environments [17][18][20][22][24][26][28][29] - The article concludes that understanding inflation is crucial for making informed investment decisions, as it serves as a fundamental principle that can clarify various investment phenomena [32][34][35]

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：聪明投资者 来源：雪球 知道今年依然是黄金的大年，但没想到是如此的巨大年。 毕竟去年高盛喊出黄金要上 3000 点时，市场讪笑声还是很多的。 去年的金价（ COMEX 黄金）是从 2000 点起步， 2024 年年内涨超 27% ，已经是 2000 年以来黄金涨幅第三大的年份，其他两个年份分别是 2010 年和 2007 年。 万万没想到的是，截至 2025 年 10 月 17 日，黄金年内已经涨超 61% 。是的，就是那个浓眉大眼，朴实无华的"避险资产"，涨出了 AI 的味 道。 就连一贯理性的摩根大通 CEO 杰米·戴蒙，在前几日的财富论坛上，面对记者问"黄金，高估还是低估"这个问题时，也老老实实回答说， 一起来看看。 问题1：你看待黄金的方式似乎和大多数人不同。你是怎么理解黄金的？ 达利欧： 没错。多数人犯的错误在于：他们把黄金当作一种金属，而不是最古老、最稳定的货币形式；他们把法币当作货币，而不是债务；他们认 为法币会被无限创造，以防止债务违约。 "我不太确定。我不是黄金的买家 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in gold prices in 2024, with an increase of over 61% by October 17, 2025, marking it as one of the largest annual gains since 2000 [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold has been recognized as a major investment asset, with its price potentially reaching $5,000 to $10,000 according to JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon [4]. - Ray Dalio emphasizes the importance of gold as a stable form of currency rather than just a metal, arguing that it serves as a hedge against debt and currency devaluation [9][12]. - Dalio suggests that gold should constitute about 10% to 15% of an investment portfolio for optimal risk-return balance, especially during times of economic uncertainty [36][35]. Group 2: Comparison with Other Assets - Unlike other metals such as silver and platinum, gold is viewed as a unique asset due to its lack of credit risk and its role as a universal medium of exchange [17][18]. - Dalio argues that while AI stocks may have high growth potential, their long-term value is uncertain, and they are subject to market volatility, unlike gold which provides a more stable investment [29][30]. - The rise of gold ETFs has increased market liquidity, but they are still smaller in scale compared to physical gold and central bank reserves, thus not being the primary driver of gold price increases [38][39]. Group 3: Gold as a Safe Haven - Gold is increasingly being viewed as a "risk-free asset," replacing U.S. Treasury bonds in many institutional portfolios, particularly among central banks [40][41]. - The historical performance of gold demonstrates its resilience as a store of value, especially during periods of economic crisis when fiat currencies may depreciate [45][46]. - Dalio notes that the intrinsic value of gold is not dependent on any repayment promise, making it a reliable asset across different economic conditions [45][46].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that 2024 is proving to be an exceptional year for gold, with prices rising significantly, surpassing 61% year-to-date as of October 17, 2025, making it one of the largest annual increases since 2000 [2][3] - Notable financial figures, including Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan, express uncertainty about gold's valuation, suggesting it could rise to $5,000 or even $10,000, indicating a shift in perception towards gold as a viable investment [2][3] - Ray Dalio's insights on gold's role in investment portfolios are highlighted, particularly in the context of economic uncertainty and debt crises [2][4] Group 1: Gold's Investment Value - Dalio argues that gold should be viewed as a form of currency rather than just a metal, emphasizing its historical stability and role as a hedge against debt and currency devaluation [7][10] - The article discusses the unique position of gold as a non-debt asset, contrasting it with other commodities like silver and platinum, which are more influenced by industrial demand [13][14] - Dalio suggests that a strategic allocation of 10% to 15% of an investment portfolio in gold is reasonable for most investors, optimizing risk and return [27][29] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Trends - The rise of gold ETFs has increased market liquidity and accessibility for retail and institutional investors, although they remain smaller than physical gold and central bank reserves [32] - Dalio notes that gold is increasingly replacing U.S. Treasury bonds as a "risk-free asset" in many institutional portfolios, highlighting its status as a mature form of currency [33][34] - Historical trends indicate that gold has maintained its value over time, unlike fiat currencies, which have often depreciated or disappeared [36][37]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that 2024 is a significant year for gold, with prices rising dramatically, and suggests that gold is increasingly viewed as a crucial asset in investment portfolios [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have surged over 61% as of October 17, 2025, marking one of the largest annual increases since 2000 [3]. - The price of gold is projected to potentially reach $5,000 to $10,000, indicating a strong bullish sentiment among market leaders [5]. Group 2: Investment Perspectives - Ray Dalio argues that gold should be viewed as a form of currency rather than just a metal, highlighting its historical role as a stable monetary asset [10][11]. - Dalio believes that gold serves as a hedge against debt and currency devaluation, making it a fundamental investment choice [13][14]. Group 3: Comparison with Other Assets - Gold is preferred over other metals like silver and platinum due to its unique position as a widely accepted form of "non-debt" currency, which carries no credit risk [16][17]. - Unlike bonds, which are subject to government credit risk, gold is seen as a true "risk-free asset" in many institutional portfolios [36][37]. Group 4: Strategic Asset Allocation - Dalio suggests that a strategic allocation of 10% to 15% of an investment portfolio should be in gold to optimize risk and return [30][31]. - The article discusses the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio, especially in light of potential economic downturns [24][28]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The rise of gold ETFs has increased market liquidity and accessibility, but they are not the primary driver of gold price increases [35]. - Institutional investors are increasingly reallocating assets from U.S. Treasuries to gold, reflecting a shift in perception of risk and value [36][38].

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, expresses a bullish stance on gold, emphasizing its unique role as a form of currency rather than just a metal [1][2]. Group 1: Gold as a Unique Asset - Dalio argues that gold is fundamentally different from fiat currency, which is essentially debt, while gold serves as a settlement tool that can pay off debts without creating new ones [2][3]. - Gold is viewed as an excellent diversification tool in investment portfolios, particularly during times of market turmoil when other assets underperform [2][3]. - Dalio highlights that gold has historically performed well when other assets, such as stocks and bonds, are struggling, acting almost like an "insurance policy" in diversified portfolios [2][3]. Group 2: Comparison with Other Assets - Dalio explains why gold is preferred over other assets like silver, platinum, or inflation-linked bonds, noting that while these can hedge against inflation, they are more volatile and influenced by industrial demand [2][9]. - Unlike inflation-linked bonds, which are still debt instruments and subject to government credit risk, gold does not carry inherent credit or devaluation risks [9][10]. - High-growth stocks, particularly in the AI sector, are seen as risky due to their dependence on uncertain cash flows, making gold a more stable choice for diversification [2][11]. Group 3: Gold's Role in Modern Portfolios - Dalio observes that gold is increasingly replacing U.S. Treasuries as a "risk-free asset" in many investment portfolios, especially among central banks and large institutions [3][17]. - Historically, gold has proven to be a lower-risk asset compared to government-issued debt, as it does not rely on any credit promises [3][18]. - The long-term trend shows that approximately 80% of currencies have disappeared since 1750, while gold remains a universally accepted form of currency [3][18]. Group 4: Optimal Allocation and Market Dynamics - Dalio suggests that a strategic allocation of about 15% to gold is optimal for maximizing risk-adjusted returns in investment portfolios [4][16]. - The rise of gold ETFs has improved market liquidity and transparency, but their scale is still much smaller than physical gold investments or central bank holdings, thus not being the primary driver of gold price increases [4][16]. - If individual and institutional investors allocate a suitable proportion of their assets to gold, the limited supply will necessitate higher gold prices [4][16].

上个月，我朋友老张来家里做客，谈话间他忧心忡忡地说："最近物价涨得厉害，我担心会不会出现严 重通货膨胀，我该怎么保护自己的财产呢？是买房、囤黄金，还是有更好的选择？"这个问题确实值得 深思。在经济不稳定的环境下，如何保值增值成了很多人心头的大事。不少人认为房子和黄金是抵御通 胀的"王牌"，但实际情况真的如此吗？ 通货膨胀是经济生活中常见的现象，简单来说就是物价普遍持续上涨，钱的购买力下降。根据国家统计 局数据，2024年我国居民消费价格指数(CPI)同比上涨2.3%，2025年第一季度这一数字已攀升至2.7%。 虽然这一水平仍在可控范围内，但物价上涨对普通家庭的生活已产生明显影响，特别是食品、医疗、教 育等必需品和服务价格的上涨，让不少人感到压力。 面对可能发生的通货膨胀，许多人本能地想到购买房产和黄金来保值。确实，这两类资产历来被视为抗 通胀的"避风港"。但随着经济环境变化，它们还是最佳选择吗？通过分析最新数据和咨询金融从业者， 我们发现答案可能并非如此简单。 先来看房产。房子作为实物资产，在一般通胀环境下确实有保值功能。但近年来情况有所变化。据房地 产研究机构数据显示，2024年全国房价涨幅仅为1.2%， ...

Core Insights - The bond market is anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed, with potential dissent among Fed voters regarding the extent of cuts [1][2] - The market is focused on the Fed's summary of economic projections, particularly the dot plot indicating future policy rates, with expectations of three cuts this year [2][3] - There is a concern that the market's expectation of the Fed rate dropping below 3% next year may not materialize, which could lead to disappointment [3] Economic Conditions - The economy is described as having two speeds, with high-income consumers continuing to spend, contributing to inflationary pressures, while small businesses struggle with high interest rates [8][9] - Core inflation, excluding shelter, increased by 2.7% last month, the highest in two years, indicating that high-income consumers are faring well [9] - The Fed faces challenges in balancing support for small businesses through rate cuts while managing the potential for increased wealth effects and stickier inflation [10] Market Expectations - The bond market is pricing in significant rate cuts, with expectations that the Fed will act aggressively to prolong economic expansion [11][12] - There is a notion of a "Goldilocks" environment where growth is slowing, but aggressive Fed actions could sustain the economic cycle [12] - Inflation-linked bonds are suggested as a viable investment option, especially if inflation begins to rise, as the market is already pricing in a return to the Fed's 2% target [13][14] Tariff Impact - Tariff policies are believed to significantly affect fixed income markets, with evidence of inflationary impacts from tariffs not being fully recognized [15] - Core goods have shown a month-over-month increase, indicating that inflationary pressures are emerging, which could lead to stagflationary conditions [15]

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, has upgraded its rating on U.S. long-term Treasuries from "underweight" to "neutral" as investors anticipate a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy Adjustments - BlackRock's tactical investment stance for U.S. long-term Treasuries has been adjusted to "neutral" for the next 6 to 12 months, ending a long-standing "underweight" strategy [1] - The company has also downgraded its position on short-term Treasuries from "overweight" to "neutral" [1] - The adjustment is based on the expectation of a short-term decline in Treasury yields, despite structural factors pushing yields higher in the long term [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 2.3 basis points to 4.034%, marking its fourth consecutive week of decline, although it remains above the 52-week low of 3.622% reached last September [1] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates that investors widely expect the Federal Reserve to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4% to 4.25% [1] - BlackRock's Jean Boivin noted that a weak labor market provides a reasonable basis for the Fed to cut rates, which could help alleviate inflationary pressures [1] Group 3: Long-term Economic Outlook - Despite inflation risks, BlackRock maintains a "risk-on" stance, believing that U.S. economic growth, while slowing, remains resilient, and corporate earnings will continue to be stable [2] - The market's driving factors are shifting from tariffs and policy uncertainty to a balance between inflation, economic growth, and government debt [2] - BlackRock's long-term strategic allocation still favors inflation-linked bonds over long-term government bonds [2] Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Considerations - U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching all-time highs, indicating positive market sentiment [3] - BlackRock views the Fed's upcoming policy decision as a potential turning point for global markets, with the possibility of supporting both U.S. equities and long-term Treasuries if the rate cut occurs under controlled inflation and sustained economic growth [3] - However, the market must remain vigilant regarding the potential resurgence of inflation [3]