记者丨袁思杰 实习生顾欣宇 编辑丨朱丽娜 和佳 刘雪莹 今年初以来，港股市场表现亮眼，恒生指数年内涨幅超过28%，领先全球主要股指，创下近4年新高。 近期，外资正快速加仓中国资产。 渣打银行北亚区首席投资总监郑子丰对21世纪经济报道记者表示，今年以来美元持续走弱，美元指数年 初至今下跌了9.4%，这使得更多投资者重新考量投资策略，将资金从美国资产配置中分散出去，配置 估值更有优势的中国资产。 从内部来看，低利率环境也促使更多内地投资者通过港股通对港股进行多元化投资布局。 "在当前内地利率持续下行的市场环境中，定价更合理的成长类科技股票，以及现金流价值显著的红利 类，值得南向投资者作为组合中的长期投资标的。"贝莱德基金量化与多资产投资总监王晓京指出。 值得注意的是，南向资金已成为港股市场本轮行情的核心资金来源。 野村证券最新研报指出，新兴市场基金在7月份大幅削减了对印度股市的持仓权重，转而增配估值更具 吸引力的H股和A股，配置比例分别上升0.8和0.7个百分点。 摩根士丹利发布的《中国市场主动型多头基金经理持仓情况》报告显示，7月外资基金对中国股票的流 入进一步加速，从 6 月的 12 亿美元增至 27 亿美元 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 袁思杰 实习生顾欣宇 香港报道 今年初以来，港股市场表现亮眼，恒生指数年内涨幅超过28%，领先全球主要股指，创下近4年新高。 在这一背景下，外资近期快速加仓中国资产。野村证券最新研报指出，新兴市场基金在7月份大幅削减 了对印度股市的持仓权重，转而增配估值更具吸引力的H股和A股，配置比例分别上升0.8和0.7个百分 点。 摩根士丹利发布的《中国市场主动型多头基金经理持仓情况》报告显示，7月外资基金对中国股票的流 入进一步加速，从 6 月的 12 亿美元增至 27 亿美元。全球基金和亚太除日本基金对中国的低配比例分别 小幅降至 1.4 个百分点和 0.3 个百分点。 与此同时，内地投资者也在加大港股市场的投资力度。8月15日，南向资金成交净买入358.76亿港元， 单日净买入额创历史最高纪录。 港股市场对海外资本和南向资金有哪些独特吸引力？投资者主要采用了什么策略？下半年港股能否延续 强势，持续吸引资金进入？ 内外因素助推港股行情 具体来看，多数分析师认为港股今年以来的上涨行情很大程度是由内外两方面因素推动。 截至8月26日，今年以来南向资金累计净流入超9700亿港元，每日成交占比达到30% ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the evolution of asset classes from a "bond bull market" to a "stock bull market" since the significant policy adjustments on September 24, 2022, influenced by a low interest rate environment [1][4] - The current market is experiencing an "asset shortage," leading asset management institutions to seek higher credit risk assets with larger credit spreads [1][3] - The phenomenon of high equity risk premiums compared to low bond credit spreads has only occurred three times in the past decade, indicating a significant market divergence [3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is gradually recovering, with M1 growth exceeding market expectations, influenced by fiscal policy and trade surpluses converting into corporate cash [4][5] - The "barbell strategy" in stock investment has shown strong performance, combining large-cap and small-cap stocks, as well as high-dividend and high-volatility assets [4][6] - Recent trends indicate a reversal in mid-cap and mid-valuation sectors, supported by domestic policies aimed at clearing ineffective supply and improving asset profitability [5][6] Group 3 - Internationally, the focus on artificial intelligence investments is notable, but there is potential for growth in manufacturing-related investments due to rising industrial prices in the U.S. [5][6] - U.S. companies exhibit a positive outlook on capital expenditures across various sectors, which may significantly impact global midstream industries [6]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of the stock market, particularly focusing on the Shanghai Composite Index and its key resistance levels, indicating a bullish market trend [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Status**: The Shanghai Composite Index rebounded quickly around the 3,550 level, indicating a bullish main upward trend, with key support levels at the 20-day moving average and 3,550 [1][2][4]. 2. **Bull-Bear Boundary**: The 120-day moving average serves as the bull-bear boundary, with the 20-day and 60-day moving averages indicating different market states [5]. 3. **Market Divergence**: Despite the overall market rally, there is internal divergence, as the Shanghai 50 index has broken its upward trend line, suggesting potential weakness in upward momentum [6][7]. 4. **Sector Performance**: Most industry sectors experienced a broad rally, but there was no clear leading sector. The pharmaceutical sector faced a pullback due to the decline in Hong Kong's innovative drug stocks [8][9]. 5. **Psychological Resistance**: The index faces psychological resistance at 3,674, with uncertainties arising from the expiration of the U.S. tariff suspension period [12][13]. 6. **Volume Concerns**: The recent market rebound has been accompanied by a significant reduction in trading volume, indicating insufficient selling pressure and potential risks of a market top [14][15]. 7. **Short-term Strategy**: Short-term trading strategies should be cautious, as there is a high probability of adjustment after reaching 3,674, with a need to monitor new market hotspots for further upward movement [16][17]. 8. **Long-term Outlook**: The market is expected to exhibit a systematic slow bull pattern, supported by overall market sentiment, capital flow, policy supply, and international conditions [19]. 9. **Sector Focus**: Attention should be given to cyclical recovery and value rebound sectors such as steel, non-ferrous metals, and agriculture, as well as technology sectors like communications and pharmaceuticals [29]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The market is currently at a critical juncture, with potential shifts in investment styles from growth to value, influenced by previous strong performances of certain sectors [28]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the current environment, investors are advised to focus on individual stocks rather than indices, particularly in sectors showing potential for recovery [27]. - **Quantitative Models**: Utilizing quantitative models to identify stocks with favorable characteristics can be an effective strategy in the current market [26][30]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market conditions and future outlook.

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, which may improve the misalignment of monetary policy cycles between China and the U.S. and lead to a narrowing of interest rate differentials [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has not mentioned "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts" in the recent Politburo meeting, suggesting that China may not follow the Fed's rate cuts in the second half of the year [1] - Currently, the DR007 is at its lower limit, indicating potential short-term pressure on liquidity-sensitive assets [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, if the interest rate differentials between China and the U.S. narrow and the RMB appreciates, combined with a year-on-year bottoming out of the Producer Price Index (PPI), domestic assets may gradually shift from a "dumbbell strategy" to focus on inflation and domestic demand [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the convertible bond market continued its upward trend, with the equal - weighted index significantly outperforming the weighted index. The median convertible bond price reached a maximum of 129 yuan, approaching the level at the beginning of 2022, but the structure showed that low - priced bonds were significantly higher than those at the beginning of 2022, while high - priced bonds were significantly lower [2][9]. - The July market was a "second - derivative" fluctuation, while the equity "first - derivative" remained positive. Before the September 3 parade, A - shares may have opportunities, and the dumbbell strategy (high - dividend + micro - cap stocks) may rebound. The convertible bond market will continue to follow the underlying stocks and remain strong [2]. - The new VAT policy on the interest income of bonds such as treasury bonds may increase the cost - effectiveness of stable and low - volatility convertible bonds, and the buying volume of bond - type convertible bonds and the entire convertible bond market may increase [2]. - After short - term winning - rate volatility pricing, the market will shift to odds - based advantages. It is recommended to pay attention to the cost - effectiveness improvement of bank convertible bonds and high - elasticity varieties, and the future will shift from position - based victory to structure - based victory [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of the Convertible Bond Market in July: Recovery under Strong Equity - **Price and Index Performance**: The convertible bond market continued to rise in July, with a steeper upward slope compared to June. The equal - weighted index significantly outperformed the weighted index, and there was a slight pullback at the end of the month. The median convertible bond price reached a maximum of 129 yuan and closed at around 127 yuan at the end of the month [2][9]. - **Style and Sector Performance**: In July, small - cap and low - rating styles were dominant again, and their excess performance since the beginning of the year reached a new high. The pharmaceutical sector led the rise, while the financial sector significantly underperformed other sectors since 2025 [10][12][15]. - **Comparison with Underlying Stocks**: Convertible bonds slightly underperformed the underlying stocks, but the underperformance margin further narrowed compared to June. The convertible bond market showed strong performance overall, and its valuation advantage was significant [16][21]. - **Valuation Situation**: The convertible bond valuation confirmed an upward trend, with the 100 - yuan premium rate rising to a maximum of 33% in July. The current high - valuation problem is mainly reflected in the low - parity area, while the 120 - 130 yuan parity is still a valuation depression [22][24][27]. 2. Outlook for the Convertible Bond Market in August: Shifting from Position - Based Victory to Structure - Based Comparison - **Equity Market and Convertible Bond Market**: The short - term adjustment of the equity market is due to the full implementation of the market rotation and catch - up market, and the market has returned to a volatile state. Before the September 3 parade, A - shares may have opportunities, and the convertible bond market will follow the underlying stocks and remain strong [2][46]. - **Valuation of Convertible Bonds**: The high valuation of convertible bonds may be maintained because the overall risk of the stock market is controllable. However, the absolute valuation of bond - type convertible bonds is relatively high, and there are potential adjustment risks. After the short - term adjustment, they have certain cost - effectiveness [48][53][60]. - **Impact of VAT Policy**: The adjustment of the bond VAT policy may increase the attractiveness of bond - type convertible bonds. After the tax increase, the cost - effectiveness of pure bonds decreases, and the buying volume of bond - type convertible bonds may increase [63][66]. - **Cost - Effectiveness of Different Types of Convertible Bonds**: The cost - effectiveness of high - dividend and low - volatility convertible bonds such as bank convertible bonds may increase, and attention should also be paid to high - elasticity varieties and individual bonds with odds advantages [4]. 3. Bond Selection Directions and Targets in August - **Bond Selection Directions**: First, pay attention to the directions favored by the high - to - low shift in the August market, such as bank convertible bonds and some "bank - like" convertible bonds; second, focus on small - cap growth sectors such as self - controllability and national defense and military industries; third, pay attention to convertible bonds that are not subject to forced redemption or have been listed for less than 6 months; fourth, pay attention to convertible bonds that can replace underlying stocks [4]. - **Targets in August**: Low - volatility convertible bonds include Lvdong Convertible Bond, Hengyi Convertible Bond 2, etc.; stable convertible bonds include Bo 25 Convertible Bond, Guanghe Convertible Bond, etc.; high - volatility convertible bonds include Daotong Convertible Bond, Jiahe Convertible Bond, etc. [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently in a correction phase, returning to a volatile state, with the main structural breakthrough yet to be established. The market will digest the expected economic growth slowdown in the second half of 2025 and the policy focus on structural adjustments [4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The focus on self-sufficiency and defense industry presents a potential opportunity, with a "barbell strategy" (high dividend + micro-cap stocks) likely to see a rebound [4]. - The main catalyst for future upward movement is the trend against "involution," which is expected to improve the profitability of midstream manufacturing in the long term, although short-term momentum may face resistance [4]. Group 2: Sector Insights - The pharmaceutical and computer sectors (IT services, software development) are highlighted as key areas of interest [5]. - In the short term, consumer goods are expected to have a rebound potential, following the recent activity in Hong Kong's cyclical stocks, indicating a time window for revaluation of consumer goods [8]. - In the medium term, the probability of a reversal in the consumer goods sector is increasing, with the rise in consumer goods prices expected to solidify the current valuation of new consumption sectors [9]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Outlook - The recent meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China focused on the development of the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the need for a stable and active capital market [11]. - The policy mentions the attractiveness and inclusivity of the Chinese capital market, reflecting ongoing attention to its healthy development [12]. - Non-manufacturing PMI remains above the threshold but shows signs of marginal slowdown, with input prices performing better than sales prices [15].

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - The equity market has shown a strong upward trend, with the A-share market closing positively and experiencing five consecutive weekly gains, indicating a bullish sentiment as the Shanghai Composite Index approached the 3600-point mark [1][8]. - The easing of trade tensions, particularly the U.S. stance towards China and the confirmation of tariff policies, has contributed to a more stable global economic outlook, enhancing investor risk appetite [1][11]. - Domestic macroeconomic data has shown steady improvement, with consumption and exports driving economic growth, while investment performance remains relatively flat [2][12]. Group 2: Equity Market Insights - The A-share market has seen significant inflows, with daily trading volumes exceeding 1.8 trillion yuan, reflecting heightened market enthusiasm [2][11]. - The technology sector is expected to be a key focus for future market growth, driven by strong narratives and growth stocks, particularly in the context of national development strategies [12][13]. - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to support the recovery of undervalued sectors, such as photovoltaics, which may present investment opportunities [12][13]. Group 3: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market has experienced a significant decline, influenced by the strong performance of the equity market, leading to a shift in investor focus towards higher-risk, higher-return assets [3][35]. - It is suggested that investors remain cautious in the bond market, observing the equity market's ability to maintain a stable upward trend before making further commitments [4][35]. Group 4: Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market has seen substantial gains, particularly in the black metal sector, driven by strong performance in the photovoltaic industry and rising prices of polysilicon [5][39]. - Despite the overall strength in the commodity market, traditional commodities like oil and gold have shown relatively subdued performance, indicating potential challenges ahead [5][39]. - Short-term recommendations include maintaining gold allocations, while a more cautious approach is advised for the medium to long term [6][42].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the financial sector has driven the A-share index higher, but the current market conditions do not favor blind chasing of high prices as the index remains in a volatile range [1][2][5]. Group 1: Financial Sector Analysis - The financial sector's recent performance is not primarily driven by expectations from the Fourth Plenary Session but rather by the significant event of the military parade on September 3 [2]. - The market should be cautious regarding expectations of policies like "restarting housing improvement," as recent meetings have not indicated large-scale stimulus measures [2][5]. - The financial sector has experienced a phase of rebound, but the current price levels do not offer favorable conditions for further investment [5]. Group 2: Policy Impact and Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policy is positioned similarly to the "old-for-new" policies introduced last year, indicating a focus on managing market expectations rather than direct economic stimulus [3][4]. - The market response to the "anti-involution" policy may exhibit a "dual-phase" characteristic, with the first phase driven by policy expectations and the second phase potentially catalyzed by the revision of the "Anti-Unfair Competition Law" [4]. - The fundamental support for the current market driven by the "anti-involution" policy is weaker compared to last year's "old-for-new" policies, as industries like photovoltaics face significant global overcapacity and seasonal demand declines [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The current market is still in a volatile range, and the trend has not formed a clear breakthrough, leading to the recommendation of maintaining a "barbell strategy" for asset allocation [5][6]. - AI and computing sectors are expected to become one of the main market lines before September, while some cyclical sectors may continue to see a recovery in profits under the "anti-involution" policy [6].

Market Overview - The recent fluctuations in the precious metals market have been significant, with gold prices experiencing volatility influenced by the U.S. CPI data [1][3] - The U.S. June CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since February, while core CPI increased by 2.9% [3][4] - The market is currently facing a "inflation rebound + pressure on gold and silver" scenario, testing investors' risk management capabilities [3] Economic Indicators - The June CPI data showed a structural divergence, with energy prices rising by 0.9% month-on-month, while prices for core items like used cars and airline tickets fell [3] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy faces a dual challenge of managing delayed inflation pressures from tariffs and preventing economic slowdown risks [3][4] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September remain high, with a 62% probability, despite the Fed's current stance on interest rates [4] Investment Strategies - In the current complex market environment, traditional investment strategies are under pressure, particularly for gold, which faces upward pressure on real interest rates despite long-term support from geopolitical risks and central bank purchases [4][6] - Investors are advised to adopt a "barbell strategy," allocating 30% to physical gold for inflation hedging while utilizing platforms like Jinsheng Precious Metals for capturing cross-market opportunities [5][6] - Jinsheng Precious Metals offers advantages such as low trading costs, rapid transaction execution, and robust fund security measures, enhancing the investment experience [5][6] Company Positioning - Jinsheng Precious Metals, as an AA-class member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, leverages three core advantages: cost optimization, rapid trading experience, and fund safety [5][6] - The company emphasizes a low-cost, high-transparency, and strong protection trading ecosystem, aligning with the evolving landscape of precious metal investments [6]