Macroeconomic and Strategy Research - The U.S. labor market remains in a weak balance, with inflation showing signs of slowing down, prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates again in December. The Fed's cautious stance indicates only one rate cut is expected in 2026, which is less than market predictions [2][3] - In Europe, a weak economic recovery is coupled with the European Central Bank's increased tolerance for inflation, leading to market expectations of a rate hike in 2026 [3] - Domestic consumption and investment are slowing due to high bases and weak expectations, while external demand remains strong, particularly in export-oriented sectors. Structural support for service consumption is anticipated as policies support recovery [3][3] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for stable economic growth and quality improvement, with a focus on the integrated effects of monetary and fiscal policies. A reserve requirement ratio cut is expected to be implemented first, with interest rate cuts being more structural [3][3] Fixed Income Research - Panda bonds, which are RMB-denominated bonds issued by foreign entities in China, have seen their market scale exceed 1.14 trillion RMB, reflecting the ongoing internationalization of the RMB and the opening of China's bond market [6][6] - The panda bond market has evolved through three stages: initial exploration (2005-2013), development with increased participation (2014-2022), and rapid expansion and product innovation (2023-present) [6][6] - Panda bonds offer lower financing costs compared to offshore dollar bonds and provide flexibility in fund usage, while also serving as a risk diversification tool for investors [7][7] - As of December 5, 2025, there are 263 panda bonds with a market size of 414.886 billion RMB, indicating a significant increase in issuance driven by policy optimization [7][7] Industry Research - The sixth batch of high-value medical consumables procurement has been initiated, with significant developments including the approval of a domestic anti-CTLA-4 monoclonal antibody and the introduction of a weight-loss version of semaglutide for cardiovascular indications [11][11] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.15% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.66% during the week of December 19-25, 2025, with the SW Pharmaceutical and Biological Index increasing by 1.43% [11][11] - The report suggests focusing on pharmaceutical companies whose products enter medical insurance and the investment opportunities arising from structural optimization in innovative drug payments, as well as the progress in the medical device sector following the initiation of high-value consumables procurement [12][12]

（来源：中金固收） rops to 1.04%. The 101 Cop 200010 yield ren 1.75bps to 1.835%, the 5Y CGB 250003 yield fell 1.5bps to 1.5475%, while the 3Y CGB 2500010 closed at 1.40%. CGB futures traded up, with the 30Y main contract up 0.63%, the 10Y up 0.1%, the 5Y up 0.06%, and the 2Y up 0.01%. ■ Credit Bond Market Today, credit bond yields fell across most tenors by 0.3-2bps, except for the 5Y tenor, where yields mostly rose by around 0.2–1.5bps. Compared with CDB bonds, 5Y credit spreads across all ratings widened by about ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 下周新增债披露发行 352 亿 ——政府债周报（12/14） 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 15 日-12 月 21 日地方债披露发行 400.4 亿元。其中新增债 352.2 亿元（新增一般债 59.6 亿元，新增专项债 292.6 亿元），再融资债 48.2 亿元（再融资一般债 39.2 亿元，再融资专项债 9.0 亿元）。 12 月 8 日-12 月 14 日地方债共发行 1069.6 亿元。其中新增债 710.5 亿元（新增一般债 210.0 亿元，新增专项债 500.5 亿元），再融资债 359.0 亿元（再融资一般债 187.4 亿元，再融资专项 债 171.6 亿元）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 下周新增债披露发行 2] 352 亿 ——政府债周报（12/14 ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2025 12 07 年 月 日 固定收益定期 而社融增速回落意味着未来几个月资产供给增速放缓。今年社融同比增速从去年 末的 8.0%回升至今年年中最高的 9.0%，资产供给的增加有效缓解了资产荒状况。 社融增速回升主要由政府债券推动，今年政府债券同比多增近 3 万亿，背后是财 政显著发力。我们按明年财政赤字 4%、特别国债 2 万亿以及新增专项债 4.5 万亿 的假定估算，明年政府债券将较今年多增 5000 亿左右，这个增量显著小于今年。 在非政府债券社融增量与今年持平的情况下，社融增速在明年上半年或再度放缓， 这意味着资金供给下降。 资金供给增加而融资需求下降，未来几个月资产荒有望再度加剧，这意味着总量 意义上债市会逐步走强。但近期超长债大幅调整显示，总体走强情况下结构上会 面临挑战。我们在此前报告中进行过论述，由于银行长债承接较多，导致△EVE 等 部分指标压力过大，特别是大行。而近期保险保费收入节奏放缓以及资产配置向 权益倾斜等，导致保险这些传统的超长债承接者配置力量不足。而交易型机构仓 位过于集中之后，就容易发生集中减仓带来的快速调整。过去这 ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - As of December 3, 2025, the total planned issuance of local government bonds in December is 157.9 billion yuan, with new general bonds, refinancing general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing special bonds accounting for 21% (33.7 billion yuan), 12% (18.4 billion yuan), 31% (49.5 billion yuan), and 13% (19.8 billion yuan) respectively [1] - In terms of regions, the top - ranked regions in December's local government bond issuance plan are Tianjin (28.9 billion yuan), Zhejiang (21.7 billion yuan), Shandong (18.2 billion yuan), Shanxi (18 billion yuan), Inner Mongolia (10.5 billion yuan), Jilin (9.9 billion yuan), Qinghai (9.9 billion yuan), Hainan (7.7 billion yuan), Ningxia (6.1 billion yuan), Yunnan (5.7 billion yuan), Guangxi (4.4 billion yuan), Ningbo (4.3 billion yuan), Hebei (4.1 billion yuan), Gansu (4 billion yuan), Heilongjiang (2.3 billion yuan), Xinjiang (1.6 billion yuan), and Jiangxi (0.7 billion yuan) [1] - The top - ranked regions in December's new special bond issuance plan are Tianjin (14.7 billion yuan), Shandong (8.4 billion yuan), Ningxia (6.1 billion yuan), Yunnan (5.7 billion yuan), Hainan (4.4 billion yuan), Gansu (4 billion yuan), Heilongjiang (2.3 billion yuan), Xinjiang (1.6 billion yuan), Shanxi (1 billion yuan), Ningbo (1 billion yuan), Jilin (0.1 billion yuan), and Inner Mongolia (0.1 billion yuan) [2] Group 2: Information from the Table (2025 Q4 Local Government Bond Issuance Plan) - The table shows the planned issuance of local government bonds in the fourth quarter, including different types such as new general bonds, refinancing general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing special bonds, for each province and planned -单列 city. For example, Beijing's total planned issuance in the fourth quarter is 31.7 billion yuan, Tianjin's is 38.2 billion yuan, and so on [5]

哈嘍大家好 今天這支影片我想來回答 網友們經常提到的一個話題 就是說 如果辭去你的工作 做全職投資需要具備哪些條件 首先我想說投資是一門生意 既然是生意 它就需要有一套 切實可行的 能夠盈利的這樣的一個商業模式 而不是靠運氣 對於全職投資者來說 你需要有一套完整的投資策略 比如說投資哪一個市場 投資哪一類標的 然後是怎樣進入 怎樣退出 對吧 資金的配置是怎樣的 等等等等 有很多人認為職業投資者 就是那種特別會選股票的人 然後買幾隻股票放在那不動 長期持有就完事了 其實不是這樣的 作為職業投資者 最大的挑戰 你要記住 沒有人給你發薪水 你的日常生活的現金流從哪裡來 除去生活之外 一些重要的硬軟件支出之後 你還有多少自由現金流 可以用於持續的投資 這很重要 那麼最重要的是 現金流還必須要非常的穩定 你不能吃了上頓沒下頓 對不對 所以說這就牽涉到一個 資產配置的問題 有多少比例去配置在 增長型的資產上面 有多少比例配置在固定收益的品種上面 獲取現金流 我之前分享過一個Hi5組合 你可以把它看作是一個生意 那麼這個生意有非常清晰的 盈利模式 和盈利預期 我們來拆解一下 首先Hi5組合 它投資美股市場 其次它不投資個股 ...

2025 年 12 月 03 日 开源晨会 1203 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 沪深300 创业板指 晨 会 纪 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 行业名称 涨跌幅(%) 石油石化 0.707 轻工制造 0.550 家用电器 0.426 建筑材料 0.321 通信 0.27 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 传媒 | -1.750 | | 有色金属 | -1.358 | | 计算机 | -1.336 | | 医药生物 | -1.232 | | 电力设备 | -1.184 | 数据来源：聚源 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【宏观经济】通向供需新均衡——2026 年宏观展望-20251202 "十五五"规划的三大要点：承前启后、科技强国、扩大内需。通向供需新均衡： 供给&需求、内需&外需、投资&消费。宏观政策更加积极：适时降准降息、广义 赤 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market yield tends to decline at the end of the year. This year, there are both similarities and structural differences compared with previous years. Although the supply and liquidity levels still provide a certain probability of decline for the bond market, the weakening of demand momentum and the limited easing strength jointly restrict the space for interest rate decline, resulting in insufficient odds. It is recommended that investors seize phased trading opportunities [4][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Review of History: What are the Laws of the Bond Market at the End of the Year? - The bond market yield tends to decline at the end of the year, mainly due to four factors: the decline in supply pressure, institutions' early layout, relatively stable policy expectations, and the central bank's active care for cross - year liquidity, which together form a phased support for the bond market [4][13][15]. - Since 2020, bond market yields have generally declined from November to December, with a significant "calendar effect". The yield of 10Y Treasury bonds has declined significantly during this period, deviating from this rule only in 2020 (Yongmei incident) and 2022 (wealth management redemption wave) due to extreme risk events [10]. 3.2. How will the Bond Market Perform at the End of this Year? - Supply side: The supply pressure is relatively controllable. As of November 21, 2025, the annual net financing scale of Treasury bonds has reached 6.1 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 93%, significantly faster than the same period in previous years (except 2024), and the remaining issuance quota is only 0.5 trillion yuan [23]. - Demand side: It may be relatively weak. Affected by the positive stock market sentiment and the potential redemption new rules, the demand of insurance and funds may be weaker than in previous years. Insurance has a slowdown in liability - side growth and a shift to equity in asset allocation, while funds face potential redemption pressure from the new rules [26][27]. - Policy side: There are still some variables. The policy tone is expected to continue the general principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability", and the risk of policy tightening is small. However, the specific policy intensity, introduction rhythm, and structural focus are still uncertain [30]. - Liquidity: The central bank's bond - buying intensity is not weak. The central bank has a clear orientation to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and recent operations show the intention to stabilize the capital market through structural tools. However, the implementation of total - volume easing tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may still need to wait [31][34].

Group 1 - The core concept of "Fixed Income +" is to combine fixed income assets with a small portion of higher-risk assets like stocks and convertible bonds to enhance returns while maintaining stability [2][10][15] - "Fixed Income +" typically consists of two parts: the fixed income portion, which includes low-risk bond assets for defensive purposes, and the "+" portion, which includes stocks and convertible bonds for offensive growth [2][15] - The performance of "Fixed Income +" products is influenced by the negative correlation between stocks and bonds, which helps to reduce volatility risk [3][15] Group 2 - Different stock-bond ratios significantly impact the returns and risks of "Fixed Income +" products, with higher stock allocations leading to greater long-term returns but also increased volatility risk [5][6] - Classic "Fixed Income +" products include primary bond funds, secondary bond funds, and mixed bond funds, with secondary bond funds and mixed bond funds being the most representative [10][15] - Broader definitions of "Fixed Income +" also encompass hedge funds and all-weather strategy funds, which may not have a high proportion of bonds but use strategies to control volatility risk [12][15] Group 3 - The increasing attention on "Fixed Income +" products is attributed to the decline in deposit interest rates, leading to rapid growth in this investment category [15] - For investors seeking a more convenient way to invest in "Fixed Income +", products like "Monthly Salary Treasure" are recommended, with a low initial investment threshold of 200 yuan [15]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The report anticipates a positive macroeconomic environment for 2026, with a GDP growth target of around 5%, supported by consumption and investment recovery, and resilient exports [3] - The policy stance is expected to be proactive and expansionary, with measures to boost consumption, infrastructure, and stabilize the real estate sector [3] - A strategic focus on A-shares is recommended, particularly in sectors related to AI, new productivity, self-sufficiency, and international expansion [3] Group 2: Fixed Income and Real Estate - The real estate sales index has shown a decline, with a current index of 41.7, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 6.2 points [5] - The overall demand for real estate remains weak, with the high-frequency index reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector [5] - The bond market is expected to experience fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to range between 1.5% and 1.9% [3] Group 3: Light Industry Manufacturing - The report highlights Han Gao Group's strong position in the home hardware sector, with a comprehensive product matrix and diversified sales system [9] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 709 million, 883 million, and 1.073 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, reflecting growth rates of 33.4%, 24.5%, and 21.6% respectively [9] Group 4: Building Materials - Yao Pi Glass is positioned as a leader in the automotive glass market, with significant growth expected in TCO glass technology due to the industrialization of perovskite batteries [10] - Revenue projections for Yao Pi Glass are 5.56 billion, 5.90 billion, and 6.34 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 160 million, 190 million, and 250 million yuan respectively, indicating a growth rate of 26.2% [10] Group 5: Retail and Duty-Free Industry - The duty-free industry is experiencing improvements due to the implementation of favorable policies, with expectations for stable performance in Q4 2025 [11] - Key players in this sector include China Duty Free Group, Meilan Airport, and Hainan Development, which are anticipated to benefit from the policy changes [11] Group 6: Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology - Frontier Biotech reported record quarterly sales, with a 47.6% increase from the previous quarter, driven by its innovative HIV drug and other products [13] - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence in grassroots medical institutions and enhancing its R&D pipeline for small nucleic acid drugs [15][16] Group 7: Semiconductor Industry - AMD's Q3 2025 revenue reached $9.2 billion, a 35.6% year-on-year increase, exceeding previous guidance [17] - The company is expected to launch new data center CPU/GPU products in 2026, with significant growth projected in revenue from 2025 to 2027 [19] Group 8: Power Equipment - Daikin Heavy Industries reported a 99.25% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, with net profits growing by 214.63% [20] - The company is expected to benefit from its leadership in offshore wind tower production, with projected net profits of 1.09 billion, 1.66 billion, and 2.48 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [20]