Revenue Insights - From January to October 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 18.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with a growth rate improvement of 0.3 percentage points compared to January to September[1] - In October, the general public budget revenue recorded a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, up from 2.6% in September, driven primarily by tax revenue which grew by 8.6%[1][2] - Personal income tax showed a remarkable year-on-year growth of 27.3%, significantly higher than the previous value of 16.7%, making it a core driver of tax revenue growth[2] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure from January to October 2025 totaled 22.58 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2%[1] - In October, public budget expenditure decreased by 9.8%, marking the first negative growth of the year, attributed to earlier fiscal spending in the first half of the year and constraints from the annual deficit requirements[3] - Infrastructure spending saw a significant decline of 26.7%, indicating reduced support for traditional fiscal investment methods[5] Tax Revenue Dynamics - Non-tax revenue experienced a sharp decline of 33.0%, indicating an ongoing improvement in the quality of fiscal revenue[1] - Export tax rebates fell by 14.8%, suggesting a potential weakening in external demand, consistent with the downward trend in October's export growth[2] - The growth rate of securities transaction stamp duty normalized to 17.5%, down from a previous 342.4%, indicating a return to typical market conditions[2] Fiscal Policy Implications - The tightening of fiscal expenditure in October may necessitate an increase in the deficit ratio next year to support economic continuity, especially with the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan"[3] - Local government land transfer revenue dropped by 27.3%, a significant increase in decline compared to the previous month's -1.0%, impacting government fund expenditures which fell by 38.2%[5]

近日，蓝鲸新闻记者专访了华创证券研究所副所长、首席宏观分析师张瑜。张瑜长期从事国内外宏观经济、大类资产配置、人民币汇率及金融 市场等方面研究，屡屡提出鲜明的市场观点，连续多年获得新财富最佳宏观分析师称号，在宏观分析领域颇具影响力。今年10月的总理座谈会 上，张瑜应邀发言，发挥专业特长，为国家宏观经济工作建言献策。 图片来源：视觉中国 蓝鲸新闻11月18日讯 （记者 李丹萍 胡劼）全方位扩大内需是推动我国经济持续回升向好、实现高质量发展的必然选择，放眼2026年，哪些措 施能促进消费的有效提振？面对外部冲击，我国外贸展现出强大韧性，但外需整体放缓，如何看待外贸出口形势？资本浪潮涌动，全球视野下 的中国资产正经历一场价值重估。坚定看好中国资产的投资价值，又需要重点关注哪些主线，遵循怎样的逻辑？ 蓝鲸新闻：今年前三季度的经济数据已经出来，对全年经济形势基本定调，市场普遍认为GDP5%的增长目标预期可实现。您有观点提出"经 济循环最差的时候正在过去"，应该如何理解，是否经济周期拐点将近？ 张瑜：我们提出经济循环最差的时候正在过去，是基于三年来第一次观察到经济领先指标的全部向上，意味着我们在这个位置上，对经济循环 有了 ...

日本内阁府17日公布，日本三季度实际国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算下降1.8%，自2024年第一季 度以来再次出现负增长。分析人士指出，受困于内需与外需的双重压力，以及对华关系持续紧张，日本 经济正滑向更为复杂的境地。 数据显示，日本今年三季度实际GDP（剔除物价变动因素）比上一季度下降0.4%。日媒分析指出，国 内需求疲软和出口低迷是导致GDP下滑的主要原因。 自5月以来，受美国关税影响，日本出口连续4个月萎缩。尽管日美双方于7月份达成协议，将"对等关 税"税率设定为15%，但历史高位的关税水平仍然抑制了制造业的发展，对其出口依赖型经济构成严重 冲击。受此影响，三季度货物及服务贸易出口大幅下降，环比下降1.2%，拖累GDP增速0.2个百分点。 进口因内需疲软环比下降0.1%。 与此同时，内需方面，占日本经济总量过半的私人消费增速也显著放缓，增速从第二季度的0.4%放缓 至0.1%，这再次表明，由于生活成本高企导致实际工资停滞不前，日本家庭仍在削减可自由支配的支 出。 截至发稿，日经225指数跌破49000点关口，日内跌超1300点。 来源：经济日报 日本内阁府此前发布中期经济预测报告称，考虑到美国关税政策 ...

Economic Performance - In October, industrial added value grew by 4.9% year-on-year, while social retail sales increased by 2.9%, and fixed asset investment fell by 11.2% year-on-year, marking the second-lowest growth since data collection began[7][10]. - The decline in fixed asset investment is primarily due to weakened internal demand, with private and public investment growth both decreasing[10]. Production and Manufacturing - The industrial production growth rate fell below 5% for the first time since September 2024, with a significant drop in export delivery value, which turned negative at -2.1%[10][11]. - The comprehensive PMI output index dropped to 50%, indicating the weakest performance in 2023[10]. Consumer Behavior - Despite a high base effect, social retail sales maintained positive growth, with a two-year compound growth rate slightly improving compared to September[10]. - Optional consumption faced increased pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 7.2% in October, particularly in automotive and home appliance sales[10]. Economic Outlook - The high base effect from last year suggests that October likely marks the low point for monthly growth in 2025[10]. - Future growth elasticity is expected to rely more on external demand, supported by a stable global manufacturing PMI and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[10][11]. Risks - External economic volatility remains a concern, particularly due to uncertainties in U.S. economic policies[10]. - The effectiveness of domestic policy measures to stabilize the economy is uncertain, especially in the context of ongoing manufacturing PMI contraction[10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The overall performance of A-share Q3 reports is good, providing bottom support for the market. However, the significant decline in external demand in October, which supported GDP in the first three quarters, is expected to drag down the economic fundamentals in Q4 and have a negative impact on stock market sentiment. Currently, after the disclosure of A-share Q3 reports and with no important domestic meetings scheduled this month, the market is in a policy and performance vacuum period. In an environment lacking clear trading guidance, the market is expected to move randomly, and stock indices will remain volatile. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - IF, IH, IC, and IM main and secondary contracts all increased, with price increases ranging from +24.6 to +122.8. Most spreads between different contracts also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing. For example, the IF-IH current-month contract spread increased by +22.8, while the IM-IC current-month contract spread decreased by -3.6. The spreads between different quarters and the current month for various contracts also changed, with some widening and some narrowing [2] Futures Position - Among the top 20 net positions, the net positions of IF and IC decreased by -1012.0 and -247.0 respectively, while the net position of IH increased by +699.0, and the net position of IM decreased by -1819.0 [2] Spot Price - The spot prices of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, China Securities 500, and China Securities 1000 all increased, with increases of +56.2, +29.4, +112.0, and +104.2 respectively. The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM also changed, with some narrowing and some widening [2] Market Sentiment - A-share trading volume increased by +1008.68 billion yuan, while margin trading balance decreased by -31.00 billion yuan. Northbound trading volume increased by +26.98 billion yuan, and reverse repurchase operation volume increased by +1900.0 billion yuan. The proportion of rising stocks increased by +40.35%, and Shibor decreased by -0.100%. The closing prices and implied volatilities of IO at-the-money call and put options also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [2] Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - The strength and weakness indicators of all A-shares in terms of technology and funds increased by +3.50 and +3.00 respectively, with technology increasing by +4.10 [2] Industry News - A-share major indices closed up collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded significantly, with nearly 4000 stocks rising. Industry sectors generally rose, with the power equipment and non-ferrous metals sectors strengthening significantly. In October, domestic CPI and PPI increased both year-on-year and month-on-month compared to the previous month, while external demand weakened significantly, and the new export orders index in the previously announced manufacturing PMI dropped by 1.9 percentage points compared to September [2] Key Data to Watch - Pending Chinese October financial data; US October CPI and core CPI at 21:30 on 11/13; Chinese October industrial added value above designated size, fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods, real estate data, and unemployment rate at 10:00 on 11/14 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall performance of A-share Q3 reports is good, providing bottom support for the market. However, the significant decline in external demand in October, which supported GDP in the first three quarters, is expected to drag down the Q4 economic fundamentals and have a certain negative impact on the stock market sentiment. Currently, after the disclosure of A-share Q3 reports and with no important domestic meetings scheduled within the month, the market is in a policy and performance vacuum period. In an environment lacking clear trading guidance, the market is expected to show a random walk, and stock index futures will maintain volatility. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Data - **IF Contracts**: The latest price of the IF (2512) main contract is 4672.0, up 13.0 from the previous period; the IF (2511) sub - main contract is 4686.2, up 13.2. The IF - IH monthly contract spread is 1631.4, down 2.8; IF's quarterly - to - monthly spread for the current quarter is - 46.2, up 0.6, and for the next quarter is - 90.8, down 4.8. The net position of the top 20 in IF is - 26,057.00, down 1661.0 [2]. - **IH Contracts**: The latest price of the IH (2512) main contract is 3054.0, up 13.8; the IH (2511) sub - main contract is 3054.8, up 13.6. The IH quarterly - to - monthly spread for the current quarter is - 5.2, down 1.0, and for the next quarter is - 11.2, unchanged. The net position of the top 20 in IH is - 14,565.00, down 343.0 [2]. - **IC Contracts**: The latest price of the IC (2512) main contract is 7235.8, up 5.0; the IC (2511) sub - main contract is 7302.8, up 10.4. The IC - IF monthly contract spread is 2616.6, down 2.4; the IC - IH monthly contract spread is 4248.0, down 5.2. The IC quarterly - to - monthly spread for the current quarter is - 237.8, down 7.2, and for the next quarter is - 428, down 11.0. The net position of the top 20 in IC is - 21,784.00, down 2150.0 [2]. - **IM Contracts**: The latest price of the IM (2512) main contract is 7421.0, up 9.4; the IM (2511) sub - main contract is 7508.8, up 16.2. The IM - IC monthly contract spread is 206.0, up 4.6; the IM - IF monthly contract spread is 2822.6, up 2.2; the IM - IH monthly contract spread is 4454.0, down 0.6. The IM quarterly - to - monthly spread for the current quarter is - 309.6, down 7.2, and for the next quarter is - 524.6, down 6.2. 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Group 1: Industrial Sector - Midstream production is recovering, with daily pig iron output and asphalt operating rates declining, while most chemical products see an increase in operating rates[2] - The operating rates for polyester in textiles and tire production have rebounded slightly[2] - The South China industrial price index fell by 0.7%, with black raw materials down 3.0% and non-ferrous metals down 0.1%[2] Group 2: Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 38.6% year-on-year as of November 7, showing a decline compared to the previous month[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.81% in the last four weeks, a slight increase in the decline compared to the previous value[2] Group 3: Domestic Demand - In October, retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.387 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6%[2] - Major home appliance retail sales fell by 17% year-on-year as of October 17, a decline of 13.4 percentage points from the previous value[2] - Domestic flights increased by 2.3% year-on-year as of November 7, with the Baidu migration index up by 10.9%[2] Group 4: External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 1.9% year-on-year as of November 2, with container throughput up by 8.2%[2] - The export container freight index rose by 3.6% week-on-week, while Shanghai and Ningbo's export container freight rates turned from rising to falling[2] Group 5: Price Trends - The agricultural product wholesale price index rose by 2.2% week-on-week, outperforming seasonal trends, particularly in vegetables and pork[2] - Industrial product prices mostly declined, with rebar futures down 2.3% and spot prices down 1.0%[2]

Inflation Trends - In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 1.2%, marking a significant increase from the previous values of -0.3% and 1% respectively[6] - The tourism CPI in October was notably high at 2.1%, influenced by the Mid-Autumn Festival, compared to 0.9% in the previous month[6] - Food prices showed a year-on-year decrease of -2.9% in October, an improvement from -4.4% in September, indicating a recovery in consumer demand[6] Policy Impact - Government consumption policies have shown a substantial leverage effect, with industrial consumer goods prices excluding energy rising by 2.0%, up from 1.8% in the previous month[6] - The PPI decreased at a slower rate of -2.1% year-on-year in October, an improvement from -2.3% in September, reflecting effective supply-side policies[6] - The prices in traditional high-energy-consuming industries improved, with the PPI for the mining and raw materials sectors increasing by 1.2 and 0.4 percentage points respectively[6] Future Outlook - Despite expected inflation declines post-holiday, the effects of various policies are anticipated to continue supporting economic growth, shifting the focus from external to high-quality domestic demand[6] - The implementation of policy-driven financial tools by the end of October is expected to further enhance domestic demand, with tangible results reflected in upcoming data[6] - Risks remain, particularly from geopolitical conflicts that could lead to unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices[6]

Export Data - In October 2025, China's export value (in USD) decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, marking a return to negative growth after a 3.1% decline in February 2025[4] - Exports to the US saw a double-digit decline, while exports to Japan and South Korea fell by 9.2%[4] - Exports to ASEAN remained strong, with growth above 10% despite a slight slowdown[4] Import Data - China's import value (in USD) increased by 1.0% year-on-year in October 2025, marking five consecutive months of positive growth[5] - Major contributors to import growth included Hong Kong (70.2%), Brazil (20.3%), and Japan (5.9%), while imports from the US fell significantly by 22.8%[5] - High-tech and electromechanical products saw notable import growth, with increases of 8.7% and 4.7% respectively[5] Trade Surplus - The trade surplus in October 2025 remained robust at over $90 billion, indicating strong competitiveness in foreign trade despite a decline in exports[6] - The surplus with the US and ASEAN showed an upward trend compared to September, reflecting ongoing industrial competitiveness[7] Market Outlook - External demand is expected to remain weak in the short term, influenced by signs of economic slowdown in the US[8] - The recent US-China summit may lead to marginal improvements in trade relations, but the overall external demand weakness is likely to persist[8] - The market may see a convergence in previously divergent trends, with sectors like finance, export leaders, and public utilities expected to perform well[8] Risks - Potential escalation in US-China tensions could impact trade and financial markets more severely than anticipated[16] - Geopolitical crises and global economic pressures may further destabilize trade conditions and financial markets[16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The export growth rate turned negative in October, which was lower than expected, mainly due to the high base last year, tightened trade relations, and the misalignment of the Mid - Autumn Festival. However, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the export situation in the future [1][2][6] - The import growth rate also declined in October, and the trade surplus was lower than market expectations [5] - The export in the fourth quarter may be weaker than that in the third quarter, but external demand has not significantly deteriorated, and there are positive signals in high - frequency data [6][7][8] - The bond market may maintain range - bound fluctuations, and the tariff game entering a "quiet period" may provide a stable external environment for equity assets [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Export Situation in October - **Overall Export**: In October, the year - on - year export growth rate was - 1.1% in US dollars, the first negative growth since March this year, lower than the market forecast of 2.9% and the previous value of 8.3%. The month - on - month growth rate was - 7.0%, also significantly lower than the average value of the past five years [1] - **By Product Category**: Integrated circuits, automobiles (including chassis), and ships performed well, with year - on - year export growth rates of 26.9%, 34.0%, and 68.4% respectively. Other mechanical and electrical products generally performed poorly. Consumer electronics and labor - intensive product exports weakened. The decline in furniture and home appliance exports may be related to the increase in tariffs [3] - **By Export Destination**: The decline in exports to the US slightly narrowed, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 25.2% and the proportion in total exports rising to 11.4%. Exports to ASEAN and the EU slowed down, with year - on - year growth rates of 11.0% and 0.9% respectively, and the shares remained stable [4] 3.2 Import Situation in October - The year - on - year import growth rate was 1.0% in US dollars, lower than the market forecast of 2.7% and the previous value of 7.4%. The month - on - month growth rate turned negative at - 9.5%, also lower than the average value of the past five years. The trade surplus was 900.7 billion US dollars, lower than the market forecast and the previous value [5] - By major imported commodities, the import growth rate of integrated circuits decreased by 3.8 percentage points to 10.2%, while the import growth rates of iron ore, soybeans, and crude oil increased [5] 3.3 Outlook for the Future - **Export Outlook**: Although the export declined significantly in October, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. The decline was affected by the high base last year and the misalignment of the Mid - Autumn Festival. External demand has not significantly deteriorated and is expected to recover further after the tariff risk decreases. High - frequency data shows positive signals [6][7][8] - **Asset Outlook**: The bond market may maintain range - bound fluctuations, and there is no sign of a trend - based market yet. The tariff game entering a "quiet period" may provide a stable external environment for equity assets [8]