宏 2026 年 3 月 2 日 证 券 研 究 报 告 中国宏观周报（2026 年 2 月第 4 周） 部分工业品生产恢复 证券分析师 平安观点： 宏 观 周 报 观 报 告 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 从高频数据观察，春节假期结束后，本周部分工业品生产恢复，工业品价 格指数也有提升。年初以来新房销售温和恢复，二手房挂牌价逐步止跌； 同时，外贸港口吞吐量及韩国出口数据表现亮眼，体现外需韧性增强。 1. 工业：部分工业品春节后生产恢复。1）原材料方面，本周日均铁水产量、 浮法玻璃开工率、部分化工品开工率，以及主要钢材品种表观需求环比提 升；水泥熟料产能利用率、石油沥青开工率环比回落。2）中下游方面，本 周纺织聚酯开工率环比提升，织造业开工率季节性走弱；汽车半钢胎开工 率、全钢胎开工率环比反弹。 2. 地产：新房销售温和修复。1）销售方面，年初以来（截至 2 月 27 日）， 30 大中城市新房销售面积同比-24.6%，较去年 ...

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In January 2026, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, down from 0.8% in December 2025, and below Bloomberg's consensus expectation of 0.4%[1] - The PPI in January 2026 decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous month's decline of 1.9%, slightly above the expected decline of 1.5%[1] - Month-on-month, the CPI remained flat at 0.2%, while the PPI increased from 0.2% in December to 0.4% in January[1] Group 2: Seasonal Effects and Core Inflation - The late timing of the Spring Festival in 2026 is expected to suppress January's CPI readings but boost February's figures significantly[2] - Core CPI showed a month-on-month recovery from 0.2% in December to 0.3% in January, marking a six-month high, indicating a gradual recovery in domestic demand[2] - The food CPI turned negative at -0.7% year-on-year in January, down from 1.1% in December, impacting the overall CPI negatively[7] Group 3: PPI Trends and Industry Insights - The PPI's year-on-year decline has narrowed for six consecutive months, with notable improvements in upstream prices for non-ferrous and black metals[8] - The PPI for production materials decreased by 1.3% year-on-year, while the living materials PPI saw a wider decline of 1.7%[8] - The ongoing "anti-involution" market reforms are contributing to price stabilization in certain sectors, with significant increases in prices for educational and entertainment products[8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the textile and apparel industry [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent recovery in both domestic and international consumer markets makes it an opportune time to invest in quality consumption, focusing on three domestic demand lines and two external demand lines [2][5]. - The core consumer price index (CPI) has shown a stable increase of 1.2% year-on-year as of December 2025, indicating a resilient recovery in demand [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high dividend yields and favorable valuations in identifying investment opportunities within the industry [5]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index has increased by 4.8% since January 2026, outperforming the S&P 500 Weighted Index, which rose by 1.3% [5]. - The report suggests focusing on three domestic demand lines: 1. Companies with strong fundamentals and dividend yields (A-shares above 5%, Hong Kong stocks above 7%), recommending Mercury Home Textiles, Luolai Lifestyle, and Jiangnan Buyi. 2. Companies with valuations at near three-year lows (below 20% percentile) and dividend yields above 7%, recommending Bosideng and TBO [5]. 3. Companies with positive fundamental expectations, recommending Li Ning and Samsonite [5]. - For external demand, the report notes a potential for inventory replenishment driven by improved consumer sentiment in the U.S., with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reaching 56.4, a five-month high [5]. Market Review - The textile and apparel sector in the A-share market rose by 1.32%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.66 percentage points [7]. - The current PE valuation for the textile and apparel sector is 21.66 times, below the historical average of 24.54 times [7][12]. Industry Data Tracking - In December 2025, the retail sales of clothing in China increased by 1.2% year-on-year, while textile and apparel exports decreased by 7.4% [19]. - The report indicates that the cumulative textile and apparel exports for 2025 amounted to approximately $293.77 billion, reflecting a 2.61% year-on-year decline [19]. Recommended Stocks and Valuations - The report provides a detailed table of recommended stocks with their respective earnings forecasts and valuations, all rated as "Overweight" [15][17]. - Notable recommendations include: - Mercury Home Textiles with a PE of 15 and expected net profit of 3.8 billion yuan in 2025 [15]. - Li Ning with a PE of 20 and expected net profit of 25 billion yuan in 2025 [15].

Industrial Sector - Industrial production shows mixed recovery, with steel and building materials output increasing while cement and glass production rates are stabilizing[2] - The steel output for major varieties has increased, while apparent demand for steel building materials has decreased[7] - The operating rate for cement clinker has improved, while the operating rate for flat glass has also seen a seasonal recovery[11][13] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities have stabilized, with a year-on-year growth rate of 109.1% due to a low base last year[2] - The sales area of new homes in January has decreased by 23.8% year-on-year, but improved by 2.8 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index has decreased by 0.45%, with the decline narrowing by 0.48 percentage points from the previous value[25] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of passenger cars from January 1 to 18 have dropped by 28% year-on-year, with a slight expected increase of 0.3% for the entire month due to the Spring Festival timing[28] - Major home appliance retail sales have decreased by 27.9% year-on-year, but improved by 3.3 percentage points compared to the previous value[30] - The volume of postal express collection has increased by 3.7% year-on-year, showing a recovery trend[33] External Demand - Port cargo throughput has increased by 4.3% year-on-year, with container throughput rising by 7.7%[35] - The export container freight rate index has decreased by 2.7% this week, indicating a decline in shipping costs[35] - The manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone has improved to 49.4%, while the US manufacturing PMI has decreased to 51.8%[35] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Price Index has risen by 1.4%, while the black raw materials index has fallen by 0.2% and the non-ferrous metals index has decreased by 0.9%[36] - The agricultural product wholesale price index has increased by 0.2% week-on-week, indicating slight inflation in food prices[41]

Group 1: Industrial Performance Overview - In December 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of revenue for large-scale industrial enterprises was 1.1%, down from 1.6% in November 2025[1] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of profits for large-scale industrial enterprises increased to 0.6% in December 2025, up from 0.1% in November 2025[1] - December 2025 saw a significant recovery in monthly profit growth, turning positive at 5.3%, a rebound of 18.4 percentage points from the previous month's -13.1%[2] Group 2: Profit and Revenue Dynamics - Despite the positive profit growth, December's revenue growth was negative at -2.98%, indicating ongoing challenges in revenue generation[2] - The average collection period for accounts receivable increased by 3.8 days year-on-year to 67.9 days, reflecting continued cash flow and operational pressures on enterprises[2] - The overall profit growth for industrial enterprises remains low, influenced by high base effects and weak domestic demand, with operating costs rising by 1.3% compared to a 1.1% increase in revenue[5] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The upstream mining sector continues to be the largest drag on overall industry performance, with coal and oil extraction showing significant declines, while non-ferrous metal mining performed well[5] - The profit growth for the raw materials manufacturing sector was 10.3% in December, indicating stabilization in traditional manufacturing due to new policy-driven financial tools[5] - Downstream consumer goods saw a sharp decline in profit growth, recorded at -7.9%, worsening from -6.9% in the previous month, linked to declining retail consumption growth[5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Industrial profit growth is expected to remain positive in January and February 2026, supported by a low base effect from the previous year and the impact of policy-driven financial tools[5] - Forward-looking indicators, including the January Business Confidence Index (BCI) for investment, sales, and profit, showed significant recovery, suggesting a continuation of the improving trend in enterprise profits[5]

Economic Growth - The economy is projected to grow by 5% in 2025, with significant contributions from external demand[1] - In Q4 2025, GDP is expected to grow by 4.5% year-on-year, marking a decline for three consecutive quarters[1] - Net exports are expected to contribute 1.6 percentage points to GDP growth, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from 2024[1] Nominal GDP and Price Index - The nominal GDP growth rate is expected to slow down, with a year-on-year increase of 4% in 2025, down from 2024[1] - The GDP deflator is projected to decrease by 1% year-on-year, indicating deflationary pressures[1] - In Q4 2025, nominal GDP is expected to grow by 3.8% year-on-year, a slight recovery from Q3's 3.7%[1] Industrial and Service Sector Performance - Industrial output is expected to grow by 5.2% year-on-year in December, up from 4.8% in November[2] - The service sector production index is projected to increase by 5% year-on-year in December, compared to 4.2% in November[2] Retail and Consumer Confidence - Retail sales are expected to grow by 3.7% year-on-year in 2025, a slight increase from 3.5% in 2024[2] - The consumer confidence index is anticipated to rise to 90.3 in November, indicating improved consumer sentiment[2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment is projected to decline by 3.8% in 2025, with a significant drop of 15.1% year-on-year in December[3] - Infrastructure investment is expected to decrease by 16%, manufacturing investment by 10.6%, and real estate investment by 35.8%[3] Real Estate Market - The sales area of commercial housing is expected to decline by 8.7% year-on-year in 2025, with sales revenue down by 12.6%[3] - Real estate prices in 70 major cities are expected to continue their downward trend, with no signs of stabilization by year-end[3]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's GDP reached 14,018.79 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, demonstrating resilience amid multiple pressures and achieving new results in high-quality development [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Performance - The GDP growth was supported by a quarterly breakdown: Q1 at 5.4%, Q2 at 5.2%, Q3 at 4.8%, and Q4 at 4.5% [1]. - The increase in fiscal deficit by 1 percentage point and the rise in fiscal spending capacity to 56.6 billion yuan, up by 16 billion yuan from the previous year, contributed to economic stability [3]. - Export growth was notable at 5.5% in dollar terms, with net exports contributing 1.3 percentage points to GDP growth, significantly higher than the past decade's average of 0.4 percentage points [3][6]. Group 2: Structural Adjustments - The economy exhibited characteristics of "resilience" and "structural adjustment," successfully withstanding the impacts of external trade tensions, particularly from the U.S. [4]. - There is a shift in policy focus towards "anti-involution" and "expanding domestic demand" due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict a GDP growth of around 4.8% to 5.0% for 2026, with key factors being the real estate market and local government debt situations [5]. - The economic trajectory for 2026 is expected to follow a "U-shaped" pattern, with a strong start in Q1, potential slowdowns in Q2, stabilization in Q3, and recovery in Q4 driven by policy support [5].

Economic Growth Overview - In 2025, China's GDP is projected to reach 1401879 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% at constant prices [1] - Quarterly growth rates are expected to be 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4 [1] Macroeconomic Policy - The National Bureau of Statistics emphasizes the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies to sustain growth, expand domestic demand, and optimize supply [1] - Fiscal deficit rate is raised by 1 percentage point, increasing fiscal spending capacity to 5.66 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 trillion yuan more than the previous year [1] New Quality Productivity - High-tech manufacturing is expected to lead the growth in new quality productivity, driving economic transformation and contributing significantly to overall economic growth [2] External Demand - Export growth is projected at 5.5% in dollar terms, with net exports contributing 1.3 percentage points to GDP growth, significantly higher than the past decade's average of 0.4 percentage points [3] Economic Resilience and Structural Adjustment - The Chinese economy is characterized by resilience and structural adjustment, successfully withstanding external shocks such as the Trump trade war [3] - There are ongoing supply-demand imbalances, prompting a policy shift towards "anti-involution" and expanding domestic demand [3] 2026 Economic Outlook - Analysts expect China's economy to grow between 4.8% and 5.0% in 2026, with key factors being real estate and local government debt situations [4] - Economic growth may exhibit a "U-shaped" trajectory, with a strong start in Q1 followed by potential slowdowns in Q2 due to internal and external factors [4] - Continued proactive macro policies are anticipated to boost consumption and stabilize investment, with GDP growth expected around 4.8% [4]

Domestic Demand - In December 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles in China were 2.296 million units, down 13% year-on-year, compared to a 7% decline in November[2] - Retail sales of major home appliances decreased by 28.5% year-on-year as of January 2, 2026, but improved by 8.4 percentage points from the previous value[2] - The volume of postal express deliveries decreased by 0.9% year-on-year as of January 4, 2026, a decline of 2 percentage points from the previous value[2] - Daily box office revenue for movies was 53.55 million yuan, down 26.3% year-on-year as of January 9, 2026[2] Industrial Sector - The Nanhua Industrial Index rose by 2.4% this week, with the black materials index up 2.7% and the non-ferrous metals index up 5.3%[4] - Daily average pig iron production and cement clinker capacity utilization rates increased, while the apparent demand for major steel products declined[4] - New home sales in 30 major cities fell by 38.4% year-on-year as of January 9, 2026, a decrease of 7.4 percentage points from the previous week[4] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 1.1% year-on-year as of January 4, 2026, but this was a decline of 0.9 percentage points from the previous value[4] - Container throughput at ports rose by 7.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value[4] - South Korea's export value increased by 13.4% year-on-year in December, up 5 percentage points from November[4] Price Trends - The price of rebar futures increased by 0.7%, while spot prices rose by 0.6% this week[4] - Coking coal futures prices increased by 7.2%, with Shanxi coking coal spot prices remaining stable[4] - The agricultural product wholesale price index decreased slightly by 0.4% this week[4]

Core Viewpoint - The core position is that the dominance of the US dollar in the global economy is entering a decline phase due to internal economic structures and policy choices in the US, rather than external challenges [1]. Group 1: Global Economic Changes - The global economic landscape is undergoing profound changes, leading to structural pressures on the dollar's core position in international trade and finance [1]. - The long-term imbalance in modern global trade has been sustained since the dollar decoupled from gold in 1971, allowing some countries to maintain trade surpluses while the US continues to act as a global liquidity provider [3]. Group 2: Risks to the US Dollar - The main risks to the dollar's global circulation stem from changes in the US domestic economic structure, including a declining manufacturing sector and widening income distribution gaps, making it difficult for the US to maintain balanced economic growth through globalization [3]. - The US faces a policy dilemma: continuing to push dollars abroad to sustain global demand may lead to structural issues and social conflicts domestically, while reducing dollar outflow to stabilize the domestic economy could decrease global trade demand [3]. Group 3: Implications for China - For China's economic development, three key insights are highlighted: 1. The internationalization of the renminbi should focus on maintaining trade stability rather than attempting to replace the dollar, as excessive pursuit of becoming a reserve currency may increase outflow pressures and impact domestic industrial structure [4]. 2. In response to the trend of reduced global demand from the US, China should accelerate domestic demand construction through consumption upgrades and investment to buffer export pressures [4]. 3. Short-term attention should be paid to the impact of US domestic policies on external demand, including adjustments in fiscal and monetary policies, which will directly affect China's exports and external demand trends [4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The decline of the dollar's global circulation is expected to be a long-term and gradual process, potentially lasting 20 to 30 years [5]. - For China, the strategic focus should be on stabilizing external demand, accelerating domestic demand development, and promoting the steady internationalization of the renminbi, rather than pursuing a short-term goal of replacing the dollar [5].