证券研究报告：房地产|行业周报 发布时间：2025-11-24 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2271.52 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 2506.48 | | 52 | 周最低 | 1870.99 | 行业相对指数表现 -19% -15% -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 21% 2024-11 2025-02 2025-04 2025-06 2025-09 2025-11 房地产 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:高丁卉 SAC 登记编号:S1340524080001 Email:gaodinghui@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 《地产数据加速下滑 政策放松预期升 温》 - 2025.11.17 房地产行业报告 （2025.11.17-2025.11.23） 量价承压 信心与预期仍待修复 ⚫ 投资要点 当前房地产行业仍处于调整周期，销售端整体同比延续下滑态 势，政策层面持续加码城市更新与存量盘活，成为推动行业转型的关 键抓手。我们认为目前市场信心 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the transition of urban development in China from large-scale expansion to enhancing existing resources and quality improvement, as highlighted in the Central Urban Work Conference [6] - Hangzhou's Land Reserve Trading Center is leveraging party-building initiatives to activate dormant land and enhance urban development through innovative financing and collaboration [7][12] Group 1: Land Resource Management - The Land Reserve Trading Center is focusing on both revitalizing existing land and developing new key urban areas, creating a new path for land resource allocation [7] - A successful case in Fuyang District involved the innovative use of special bond funds to repurchase underutilized land, marking a significant policy breakthrough [8] - The collaboration between the Land Reserve Trading Center and Hangzhou Investment Group exemplifies effective land development strategies, integrating multiple processes into a streamlined service chain [9][10] Group 2: Financial Innovation and Efficiency - The use of special bond funds has significantly accelerated project development timelines, with the project in the West Station area receiving over 100 million yuan in funding for land acquisition and preliminary work [9][10] - The establishment of a comprehensive regulatory mechanism for special bond funds ensures effective management and utilization of financial resources [12] - The Land Reserve Trading Center has implemented a "one-click refund" system for land bidding deposits, returning over 10 billion yuan to numerous enterprises this year [12] Group 3: Long-term Development Strategies - The integration of party-building initiatives with financial policies is driving sustainable development in urban land management [12][13] - The Land Reserve Trading Center aims to promote two models: "special bonds + stock repurchase" and "special bonds + area development," aligning with national urban development strategies [13] - The focus on both economic and social benefits in land reserve work reflects a commitment to high-quality urban development [13]

Core Viewpoint - The "Boyu Yanyuan Old Palace Core Community" project in Daxing District, Beijing, marks a significant step in the development of collective land for rental housing, showcasing a successful model for sustainable housing rental operations and providing valuable experience for the industry [1][3][4]. Group 1: Project Overview - The "Boyu Yanyuan Old Palace Core Community" is the first collective land project under the "Jianwan Fund" in Beijing, with a total construction area of approximately 65,000 square meters, located near the South Fifth Ring Road and about 1.5 kilometers from the Yigong Station on the Yizhuang Line [3]. - The project includes 1,505 units of affordable rental housing, operated by Vanke's long-term rental apartment brand "Boyuy," with rental prices set at 90% of the surrounding market rates [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Context - The current phase of urban development in China is shifting from large-scale expansion to improving existing stock, with policies supporting the revitalization of existing assets [4]. - The construction of affordable rental housing on collective land aligns with the "rent and purchase coexistence" housing policy, effectively increasing the supply of affordable rental units and promoting the efficient use of rural land resources [4]. Group 3: Company Positioning - Vanke is one of the earliest companies to enter the rental housing market, successfully exploring a sustainable path through "stock activation + service enhancement + capital closure," which has improved operational efficiency and established a clearer business model [4][9]. - Vanke's rental business has achieved significant scale, managing 280,000 rental units nationwide, with an occupancy rate close to 95%, making it the largest provider of centralized apartments in China [8][9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The innovative practices of Vanke's rental housing business provide solutions to industry challenges, focusing on activating existing resources and enhancing tenant experience through standardized services and smart management [9]. - The long-term rental business of Vanke is expected to contribute stable and lasting value to society, the industry, and citizens, as it continues to evolve and adapt to market needs [9].

Core Viewpoint - Vanke reported a significant loss in the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit loss exceeding 28 billion yuan, highlighting the severe challenges faced in the current market environment [2][4]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Vanke achieved a revenue of 56.07 billion yuan, with a net profit loss of 16.07 billion yuan, marking a decline of 16.73% and 181.9% respectively compared to Q2 [2]. - For the first three quarters, total revenue was 161.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.61%, while the net profit loss expanded by 56% [2]. - The company reported asset impairment losses of approximately 9.4 billion yuan, primarily due to declining development business settlements and pressure on gross margins [2]. Business Operations - Vanke's real estate development business contributed 114.25 billion yuan in revenue from a settlement area of 8.333 million square meters [2]. - The company sold over 74,000 units and achieved a contract sales area of 7.751 million square meters, with a total contract sales amount of 100.46 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 41.8% and 44.6% respectively [4][5]. - Despite challenges in the real estate sector, Vanke's operating service segment maintained resilience, generating a total revenue of 43.57 billion yuan in the first three quarters [5]. Strategic Partnerships and Support - Vanke has signed a deal with China Travel Group for asset disposal, indicating ongoing efforts to manage its asset portfolio [5]. - The company received its 11th loan from Shenzhen Metro Group, amounting to no more than 2.2 billion yuan, aimed at repaying bond principal and interest, showcasing the deepening financial support from its major shareholder [9][11]. - Vanke's relationship with Shenzhen Metro has become crucial, with the latter holding 27.18% of Vanke's shares and providing favorable loan conditions [9][11]. Future Outlook - The company is focusing on optimizing its existing resources and enhancing its operational strategies to navigate through the current market challenges [10][12]. - Vanke's ability to self-repair and adapt will be critical for its survival and success in overcoming the industry's downturn [12].

Core Perspective - The "15th Five-Year Plan" marks a significant shift in China's real estate policy, moving from a focus on rapid expansion to prioritizing high-quality development and improving people's livelihoods [1][3]. Group 1: New Positioning - The real estate sector's role has been redefined from a driver of economic growth to a stabilizer for people's livelihoods, emphasizing the need for housing stability before quality [3]. - The new mechanism for high-quality development involves aligning housing supply with actual population demand, moving away from the previous rapid turnover model [3][4]. - The plan aims to dismantle unreasonable restrictions on housing consumption, indicating a more proactive approach to addressing housing needs [3][4]. Group 2: Supply Adjustments - The focus has shifted from merely increasing the quantity of affordable housing to enhancing its quality, with an emphasis on amenities and sustainability [4]. - The introduction of improvement housing in the plan reflects a response to real demand, with larger units becoming more prevalent in key cities [4][5]. - The strategy will involve tailored approaches to housing supply based on local demand, moving away from a one-size-fits-all model [4]. Group 3: New Operational Models - The plan emphasizes the need for a new development model, moving away from high-leverage land acquisition to a focus on operational efficiency [5]. - A new financing mechanism has been established to support reliable projects, with over 7 trillion yuan allocated for approved projects [5][6]. - The revitalization of existing properties and land through mergers and acquisitions is highlighted as a new growth area [5][6]. Group 4: Risk Management - The plan prioritizes risk management in real estate, establishing a comprehensive safety management system for properties throughout their lifecycle [6]. - Measures to ensure market stability include adjusting supply based on population trends and regulating the second-hand housing market to prevent price manipulation [6]. - The overarching goal is to return the industry to its fundamental purpose of addressing housing needs rather than speculative investment [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recently published "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" emphasizes the importance of promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector, indicating a clear direction for the industry over the next five years [1] Group 1: Policy Shift - The "Suggestions" explicitly call for the promotion of high-quality development in real estate, reflecting a shift in the industry's development stage. The average urban housing area per person has exceeded 40 square meters, and the average household owns nearly 1.1 homes, signaling the end of the housing shortage era [2] - The new model for real estate development will focus on improving foundational systems in development, financing, and sales, moving away from short-term demand restrictions or stimuli [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Restructuring - The "Suggestions" propose optimizing the supply of affordable housing to meet the basic housing needs of urban wage earners and various disadvantaged families, expanding the coverage of housing security [3] - The emphasis on increasing the supply of improved housing based on local demand variations will be a key characteristic of housing supply during the 15th Five-Year Plan period [3] Group 3: Quality Improvement - The "Suggestions" highlight the need to build safe, comfortable, green, and smart homes, along with implementing quality improvement projects for housing and property services [4] - Ongoing initiatives such as the renovation of old neighborhoods and urban renewal aim to enhance housing quality and living standards [4] Group 4: Revitalizing Stock - The revitalization of existing stock is becoming a significant source of housing supply, with policies aimed at utilizing low-efficiency land, idle properties, and existing infrastructure [5] - As of October 24, the total amount of proposed special bonds for acquiring idle land has exceeded 620 billion yuan, indicating strong support for revitalizing existing land and properties [5]

Core Viewpoint - Vanke has received a loan of up to 2.064 billion yuan from its largest shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, to repay bond principal and interest, which is part of a series of financial maneuvers to alleviate debt pressure amid a challenging real estate market [2][3]. Group 1: Loan Details - Shenzhen Metro Group has provided loans to Vanke for the ninth time this year, totaling 25.941 billion yuan [2]. - The loan interest rate is set at LPR minus 66 basis points, currently at 2.34%, with a maximum term of three years [2]. - Vanke's total domestic debt in the public market amounts to 27.9 billion yuan, with a bond principal and interest of 2.064 billion yuan maturing in September 2025, matching the loan amount [2]. Group 2: Financial Strategies - As of mid-2025, Vanke's short-term loans stand at 23.146 billion yuan, with non-current liabilities due within one year totaling 134.713 billion yuan [3]. - Vanke has raised 24.9 billion yuan through new financing and refinancing in the first half of 2025 [4]. - The company has completed 13 bulk transactions worth 6.43 billion yuan across various sectors, including office and commercial properties [4]. Group 3: Asset Management and Cash Flow - Vanke has actively worked on asset management, achieving cash inflows of 5.75 billion yuan by revitalizing existing resources, with 64 projects activated over the past three years, representing a saleable value of approximately 78.5 billion yuan [4]. - By August 23, Vanke had successfully repaid 24.39 billion yuan in public debt for the year, with no foreign public debt maturing before 2027 [5]. - The company aims to improve management, increase revenue, reduce costs, and enhance cash collection to mitigate risks and return to a healthy growth trajectory [5].

Core Viewpoint - Vanke's half-year report for 2025 shows a revenue of approximately 105.3 billion yuan and a sales amount of 69.11 billion yuan, with a repayment rate exceeding 100% [1][3]. The company is actively working on asset revitalization and exploring new development models amid industry challenges [1]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Vanke achieved a total revenue of 105.3 billion yuan, with sales amounting to 69.11 billion yuan and a repayment rate over 100% [1]. The company reported a revenue of 84.44 billion yuan from real estate development and related asset management, accounting for 80.2% of total revenue [3]. The gross profit margin for this segment increased by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year to 8.7% [3]. Sales and Market Position - Vanke sold 5.389 million square meters of property, generating sales of 69.11 billion yuan, ranking among the top three in sales across 15 cities [5]. The company has been responsive to the "good housing" initiative, with new projects achieving a sales rate of over 90% [5][7]. Asset Management and Revitalization - Vanke has revitalized 64 projects over the past three years, involving a saleable value of approximately 78.5 billion yuan [1]. The company emphasizes the importance of revitalizing existing resources, which has led to nearly 60 billion yuan in cash inflow from asset revitalization in the first half of the year [8]. Financing and Debt Management - Vanke secured 24.9 billion yuan in new financing and refinancing in the first half of the year, with a successful repayment of 24.39 billion yuan in public debt [3]. The company has maintained a stable financing scale and has received nearly 24 billion yuan in shareholder loans to alleviate liquidity pressure [3]. Business Diversification - Vanke's operating service business generated a total revenue of 28.42 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.6% [12]. The property service platform, Wanwu Cloud, reported a revenue of approximately 18.14 billion yuan, with a profit increase of 5.4% [12]. The rental housing business, "Boyu," remains the largest provider of centralized apartments in the country, with a revenue of 1.8 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.1% [13]. Strategic Partnerships and Innovations - Vanke is enhancing its collaboration with major shareholder Shenzhen Metro Group to create a new urban service ecosystem [15]. The company has also initiated innovative projects, such as using robots for delivery in metro stations, showcasing its commitment to integrating technology into operations [15]. Future Outlook - Vanke's management believes that while the company faces ongoing operational pressures, it is gradually resolving risks and is optimistic about future recovery [16]. The focus will be on strategic adjustments, operational improvements, and enhancing core capabilities to adapt to the new real estate model [16].

Core Viewpoint - The central urban work conference in July emphasized the need for a new model in real estate development, shifting focus from expansion to improving existing stock, which raises higher demands for space revitalization and resource integration [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The revitalization of existing spaces such as office buildings and industrial parks requires higher operational capabilities, with a focus on balancing asset value and rental returns [1] - The current environment presents an opportunity for operators like BEEPLUS to expand, as asset owners are increasingly seeking professional management to optimize space utilization amid oversupply [1][2] - The asset value reconstruction in recent years is seen as a positive development for operators, as lower asset values can directly improve rental yields [1] Group 2: Company Developments - BEEPLUS has completed a Series C financing round, with a valuation exceeding 1.5 billion yuan, and has recently launched new asset management projects in Nanjing and Shenzhen [2] - The Nanjing BEEPLUS Innovation and Entrepreneurship Center offers flexible office spaces that cater to various business sizes, integrating work, life, and social spaces [2] - BEEPLUS employs a "state-owned enterprise + private enterprise" cooperation model to revitalize state-owned assets and provide support services for incubating and settling enterprises [2] Group 3: Operational Strategies - The industry is shifting from a single enterprise introduction model to a comprehensive ecosystem construction approach, enhancing resilience through systematic strategies [3] - BEEPLUS's operational model includes leveraging local resources, such as universities, to foster industry clusters, as demonstrated in the Nanjing Meteorological Valley project, which has achieved nearly 50% occupancy [4] - Future directions for BEEPLUS include focusing on asset securitization through enhanced operations, aiming to maintain capital return rates between 4% and 5% despite challenges in high asset values [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the transformation of Dagong Town in Hai'an City from a "back garden" to an important economic growth hub, driven by resource optimization and effective land management [1] Group 1: Economic Development - Dagong Town is leveraging its geographical advantages to accelerate economic growth, with a focus on revitalizing underutilized industrial areas [1] - The introduction of a transformer project on 15 acres of previously idle land is expected to generate an average tax revenue of 240,000 yuan per acre [1] - The town has successfully managed land resources by addressing 108 acres of land that were approved but not supplied, and redeveloping 265 acres of low-efficiency land [1] Group 2: Agricultural and Rural Planning - The establishment of a 1,000-acre pear orchard in Yuba Village has gained popularity, supported by an e-commerce center aimed at expanding the pear industry [1] - The local government has a 100% approval rate for seven projects related to rural construction, addressing land needs effectively [1] - Dagong Town's application for 48.4 acres of rural land will further support industrial upgrades and strengthen local industries [1] Group 3: Land Protection Initiatives - The "Cultivated Land Protection into Ten Thousand Villages" campaign has raised awareness among villagers, making land protection a community-driven effort [1] - Dagong Town has achieved a "double zero" goal of eliminating illegal land use, establishing a new order for cultivated land protection [1]