参考消息网11月25日报道据英国《新政治家》周刊11月21日报道，十年前，伦敦交易员只会在财政声明发布或选举结果出炉时关注政治动态；如今，对政治 的关注已成常态。这种转变源于两个原因。首先是政治格局的变化，比如英国频繁更换首相；其次是市场本身的变革，2022年通胀抬头，终结了自2008年以 来长期的低借贷成本时代。突然间，各国政府开始受制于一群"隐形投资者"：这些人对通胀走势和政府债务的预判，可能会让政府借贷成本陡然飙升。这批 债券市场的"义务监察者"已然觉醒。 ...

今天分享的是：贝莱德：2025年第四季度全球投资展望报告 报告共计：25页 贝莱德2025年第四季度全球投资展望核心总结 2025年第四季度，全球金融市场呈现出复杂多变的格局，各类资产表现分化，颠覆性趋势与宏观风险交织。贝莱德智库基于对全球经济、市场动态的深度分 析，形成了多维度的投资展望核心观点。 全球股市方面，2025年4月美国市场动荡后，全球股市普遍反弹，美国、中国、日本等主要地区股指自4月重设基数以来均有不同程度回升。美股表现尤为突 出，主要得益于人工智能相关行业和企业的良好盈利支撑，科技与通信板块及"科技七巨头"成为回报核心驱动力。日本股市也展现出积极态势，企业加大股 份回购规模，估值相对偏低且大型企业引领估值上涨，小型股具备补涨潜力。不同地区股市回报来源存在差异，美国以外市场的回报多由估值回升驱动。 债券市场面临显著压力，发达市场长期国债收益率因政府债务忧虑持续上行，日本、法国和英国的30年期国债收益率升至数十年新高。即便美联储启动降 息，美国收益率曲线仍呈现趋陡态势，市场焦点转向通胀控制与政府债务管理的政策平衡。美国政府债务占GDP比例及净利息支出占联邦支出比例均呈上升 趋势，对债券市场形成持续 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities on November 4, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and livestock. It also analyzes the fundamental data and macro - industry news of each commodity, and gives the trend strength ratings for each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Attention should be paid to risks in US banks. The trend strength is 0. The price of Comex gold 2512 was 4013.70 with a 0.01% increase [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is expected to rebound in a volatile manner. The trend strength is 1. The price of Comex silver 2512 was 47.910 with a - 0.70% decrease [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: A decrease in LME inventory restricts price decline. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 87,300 with a 0.33% increase [2][9]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to run strongly. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,565 with a 0.94% increase [2][12]. - **Lead**: A continuous decrease in overseas inventory supports the price. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,420 with a 0.17% increase [2][15]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts. The trend strength is 1. The price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 285,760 with a 0.65% increase [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly. The trend strength is 1. The price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,600 with a 300 increase compared to T - 1 [2][22]. - **Alumina**: There is support at the bottom. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2789 with a - 4 decrease compared to T - 1 [2][22]. - **Nickel**: Accumulated inventory at the smelting end suppresses the price, while uncertainties at the ore end provide support. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,950 with a 360 increase compared to T - 1 [2][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range at a low level. The trend strength is 0. The price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,630 with a - 25 decrease compared to T - 1 [2][26]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related**: - **LPG**: Demand improvement is limited, and the futures valuation is high [2][49]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly, but weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [2][53]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: There was a short - term adjustment in the night session, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market continued to rise [2][53]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Demand is acceptable, but supply pressure still exists, and it is in a high - level volatile market [2][28]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure is large, and the trend is weak [2][28]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate [2][30]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost has collapsed, and it is running weakly [2][32]. - **Asphalt**: It fluctuates following crude oil [2][34]. - **LLDPE**: Unplanned maintenance has increased, and attention should be paid to import pressure [2][36]. - **PP**: It is expected to fluctuate in the medium term [2][37]. - **Caustic Soda**: Cost provides support, and it is in a volatile market [2][38]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is expected to fluctuate [2][40]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][42]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to run weakly [2][43]. - **Urea**: It is under pressure and fluctuating [2][45]. - **Styrene**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][47]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [2][48]. Agricultural Products and Livestock - **Oils and Fats**: - **Palm Oil**: There is a lack of driving factors, and short - term support should be noted [2][61]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price of US soybeans has rebounded, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil is expected to widen [2][61]. - **Grains and Oilseeds**: - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans have reached a new high, and the domestic soybean meal may follow the rebound [2][63]. - **Soybean**: The start of state - reserve purchases has stabilized the market [2][63]. - **Corn**: It is expected to fluctuate [2][65]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: - **Sugar**: It is in a range - bound adjustment [2][66]. - **Cotton**: The impact of the price of seed cotton on cotton futures has weakened [2][67]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: - **Eggs**: They are expected to fluctuate and adjust [2][69]. - **Pigs**: The price center has further declined [2][70]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2][71].

Core Views - The effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies is contingent upon their ability to promote stable economic growth, but they often serve as tools rather than solutions when deep structural contradictions arise in the economy [2][7] - Government debt management is akin to operating a "super company," where the sustainability of debt relies on the expectation of future income, primarily through tax revenues [2][4] Government Debt and Expenditure - Government debt and expenditure must be built on a durable and stable system, which is essential for both corporate prosperity and government sustainability [4] - Fiscal spending should accurately address the core contradictions and pain points of the economy to yield potential economic returns and growth; misallocation of fiscal funds can erode government competitiveness and future revenue-generating capacity [4][8] Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Monetary and fiscal policies are merely means to alleviate pain during economic downturns and to temper overheating during upturns, but they do not resolve core contradictions [7][8] - High interest rates are often employed to control rapid economic expansion rather than directly causing a slowdown in growth; the key variables affecting growth are division, distribution, and leverage [7][8] Debt Sustainability - Low interest rates do not necessarily provide substantial benefits to fiscal debt; if fiscal debt loses market confidence, merely having low rates will not resolve credit crises [8] - The core issue is whether policies can promote sustainable growth, which in turn leads to long-term benefits for government departments and alleviates concerns about debt sustainability [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's debt burden is accelerating, projected to surpass that of Italy and Greece for the first time this century, with total debt as a percentage of GDP expected to reach 143.4% by 2030, marking a significant increase of over 20 percentage points from current levels [1][3]. Debt Trajectory - By 2030, the debt-to-GDP ratio for Italy and Greece is expected to decline, while the U.S. ratio will continue to rise, indicating a long-term trend of increasing debt in the U.S. as per the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) [2][3]. - The IMF predicts that the U.S. budget deficit will remain above 7% of GDP annually until 2030, making it the highest among all wealthy nations tracked by the IMF [1]. Political and Economic Context - The Biden administration has seen a rapid expansion of the federal deficit, with limited progress made during the Trump administration to address the issue [3][4]. - Political dynamics in the U.S. complicate efforts to reduce the deficit, as both major parties are resistant to significant changes in spending or taxation [4]. Italy's Fiscal Discipline - Italy is recognized for its efforts to control budget deficits, with a projected fiscal deficit of 3% of GDP this year, down from 8.1% when the current government took office [6]. - The Italian government is expected to achieve a primary surplus of 0.9% of GDP, exceeding initial forecasts [6]. Sustainability Concerns - Despite the U.S. having a lower net government debt level compared to Italy, concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy are growing due to the rising debt trajectory [7]. - Analysts emphasize that any predictions regarding the sustainability of U.S. fiscal conditions must consider various economic factors, including productivity growth and tax revenues [7].

Core Insights - The U.S. government debt is projected to exceed that of Italy and Greece for the first time this century, highlighting the fragility of U.S. public finances [1][3] - By 2030, U.S. government debt is expected to rise over 20 percentage points, reaching 143.4% of GDP, surpassing the record set during the pandemic [1] - The annual budget deficit in the U.S. is anticipated to remain above 7% of GDP, higher than any other developed economy tracked by the International Monetary Fund [1] Comparison with Italy and Greece - Italy and Greece, historically known for their weak fiscal positions and central to the 2010-2012 Eurozone debt crisis, are expected to reduce their debt burdens by the end of the decade through strict deficit control [3] - In contrast, U.S. debt is projected to continue rising, with the Congressional Budget Office forecasting ongoing growth in U.S. debt over the coming decades [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from the European credit rating agency has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from "AA" to "AA-" due to the deteriorating public financial condition and declining governance standards in the U.S. [2] Financial Condition - The U.S. public finances are worsening, characterized by persistently high fiscal deficits, rising interest expenditures, and limited budget flexibility, leading to an increasing government debt level [2] - The report predicts that without substantial reforms, the U.S. government debt-to-GDP ratio could rise to 140% by 2030, significantly higher than most sovereign nations [2] Governance Standards - The decline in governance standards is a significant reason for the rating downgrade, with concerns over the concentration of executive power and the Trump administration's disregard for court orders and congressional oversight, which increases policy unpredictability and risks of policy errors [2] - The uncertainty displayed in tariff negotiations with major trading partners exemplifies this governance issue [2] Rating Outlook - The agency has assigned a "stable" outlook for the U.S. rating, indicating that the risks of both upgrades and downgrades are balanced over the next 12 to 18 months [2] - Downside risks include the continuous rise in debt levels and a potential significant weakening of the U.S. dollar's status as a global reserve currency, which could reduce global demand for U.S. Treasury securities [2] Recent Developments - As of October 21, the total U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $38 trillion, marking a significant increase from $37 trillion just two months prior [3] - The ongoing government shutdown, which has lasted for 24 days as of October 24, could potentially reduce economic growth by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points for each week it continues [3] Other Rating Agency Actions - Other rating agencies have also downgraded U.S. ratings this year, citing policy risks and long-term fiscal challenges [4] - Fitch Ratings downgraded the outlook for 25% of U.S. industries to "negative" due to increased uncertainty, slowing economic growth, and expectations of prolonged high interest rates [5] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1, reflecting a significant increase in government debt and interest payment ratios compared to similarly rated countries [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent downgrade of the United States' sovereign credit rating by Scope Ratings from "AA" to "AA-", citing deteriorating public finances and declining government governance standards as primary reasons [1][2]. Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - Scope Ratings downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating due to ongoing deterioration in public finances and governance standards [2][3]. - The report indicates that the U.S. fiscal situation is characterized by high fiscal deficits, rising interest expenditures, and limited budget flexibility, which are driving the government debt level higher [2][3]. - The report projects that without substantial reforms, the U.S. government debt-to-GDP ratio could reach 140% by 2030, significantly higher than most sovereign nations [2][3]. Group 2: Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. government has been in a shutdown for 24 days, affecting over 500,000 federal employees who have not received full salaries [5][6]. - The shutdown has led to significant disruptions, including delays and cancellations of flights due to a shortage of air traffic controllers, which raises concerns about aviation safety [5][6]. - The ongoing political deadlock between the Republican and Democratic parties over healthcare spending has prevented the passage of a temporary funding bill, prolonging the shutdown [6]. Group 3: Debt Levels and Future Projections - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with a notable increase from $37 trillion just two months prior [1][3]. - The Peterson Foundation estimates that U.S. debt interest payments could surge to $14 trillion over the next decade, compared to $4 trillion in the past decade, which will significantly crowd out public and private spending in critical economic areas [4].

Core Points - Scope Ratings downgraded the U.S. credit rating by one level to AA- due to ongoing government shutdown and deteriorating public finances [1][2] - The downgrade reflects weakened governance standards, which reduce policy predictability and increase the risk of policy missteps [2] - The U.S. debt level surpassed $38 trillion as of October 21, marking a significant increase from $37 trillion in mid-August [2][3] Group 1 - Scope Ratings' assessment is two levels lower than its larger competitors, Fitch, Moody's, and S&P Global Ratings [3] - The agency maintains a "stable" outlook for the U.S. rating, with balanced risks for potential upgrades or downgrades in the next 12 to 18 months [2] - The International Monetary Fund predicts that U.S. general government debt will reach 140% of GDP in the next four years, an increase of 15 percentage points from 2025 [3] Group 2 - The downgrade adds to the blemishes on the U.S. credit record, especially following Moody's downgrade in May [3] - Scope's analysts have warned that the government shutdown is a "negative credit event," although the likelihood of default remains low [3] - The potential decline in the U.S. dollar's status as a global reserve currency could reduce demand for U.S. Treasury securities [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the U.S. credit rating has been downgraded by Scope Ratings due to ongoing fiscal deterioration and weakened governance standards [2][3] - Scope Ratings has lowered the U.S. credit rating to AA-, which is three levels below its highest rating, indicating significant concerns about the country's fiscal health [2] - The agency warns that the ongoing government shutdown has increased the risk of policy missteps and reduced the predictability of U.S. policy-making [2][3] Group 2 - As of October 21, the total U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $38 trillion, marking a significant increase from $37 trillion just two months prior [3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the U.S. general government debt will reach 140% of GDP within four years, an increase of 15 percentage points from 2025 [3] - Scope Ratings has maintained a negative outlook on the U.S. rating since 2023, with analysts highlighting the government shutdown as a "negative credit event" [3]