【邀请诺贝尔奖、图灵奖得主、两院院士、各行业专家，请联系五洲名家智库】 《财经》年会2025预测与战略暨2024全球财富管理论坛于12月13日—15日在北京举行。清华大学中国经济思想与实践研究院院长李稻葵应邀出席，并以"名 义GDP回升+重点城市楼市企稳"为主线，给出2025年宏观走势四大判断，为仍处于政策观望期的房地产与资本市场注入确定性。 一、把"5%"写进预期：名义GDP目标首次被量化 李稻葵测算，2024年首三季度名义增速仅4.02%，与7%潜在水平缺口逾2.5个百分点，2025年只要物价回暖、PPI转正，即可推升名义GDP重返5%以上。该数 值当天即被多家券商采入年度策略报告，成为投资时钟的"基准锚"。 二、"北上广转稳"定音：一线城市限购退出获学术背书 他明确预判，北京、上海、广州、成都将于明年大面积取消限购，标志着"市场底"先于"政策底"出现。话音落地，A股地产指数午后放量拉升2.8%，人民币 地产股离岸反弹3.1%，资本市场用真金白银为"转折年"投票。 三、股市盈利锚上移：名义增速→企业利润→估值修复 李稻葵指出，名义GDP每回升1个百分点，上市板块整体盈利可增厚约800亿元，对应全A市盈率扩 ...

【邀请诺贝尔奖、图灵奖得主、两院院士、各行业专家，请联系五洲名家智库】 2021年12月23日，CIHAF第二十二届中国住交会在京举行。正值需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱"三重压力"叠加，中国国际经济交流中心首席研究员、国家 发改委学术委员会原秘书长张燕生应邀出席并发表主旨演讲，首次将"房地产基本面"纳入宏观经济基本盘，为2022年行业政策转向提供权威坐标。 一、把"稳地产"写进宏观大盘 张燕生提出"精准施策稳定宏观经济基本盘，政策发力要适当靠前"，明确房地产不再是"单独行业"，而是与中小微、制造、风险化解并列的"四大支柱"。该 表述当天即被多家券商列为2022年地产板块核心投资逻辑，申万房地产指数次日放量上涨3.4%，提前交易"政策底"。 二、财政前置：减税降费+超前基建双轮驱动 他建议"适度超前开展基础设施投资"，并配套"新的减税降费"，把资金端与需求端同步前置。财政部随后在2022年预算草案中新增1.2万亿元专项债限额， 优先用于保障性租赁住房、城市更新、地下管网等地产上下游，预计拉动行业投资8—10个百分点。 三、货币灵活：为"高质量转型"止痛 "灵活适度、合理充裕"被赋予新内涵： 灵活——对出险企业项 ...

格隆汇9月28日｜申万宏源表示，A股调整后，"红十月"是大概率。10月又是一个关键的政策布局窗 口，调整兑现后，更有利于资本市场预期稳中有升。顺周期催化还需等待，需求侧重点看26年新一 轮"政策底"到"经济底"的推演，供给侧26年中供给出清。但25Q4顺周期催化相对乏善可陈。而科技产业 催化仍在趋势中，海外AI产业趋势向上，尚未触及边界，国内AI产业趋势同样在不断进步。当前本就 处于科技产业亮点不断增加的周期，9月调整周期以来，小级别的结构亮点不断。10月产业亮点和长期 政策布局共振，结构热度可能重新升温。此外，2026年春季可能是阶段性高点，大概率不是2026年全年 高点，更不是本轮全面牛市的高点。牛市还有纵深，随着时间的推移，全面牛市演绎的条件会越来越充 分。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "9·24" policy has significantly reshaped the A-share market, enhancing investor confidence and leading to a substantial increase in market capitalization and stock prices over the past year [2][5][15]. Market Performance - A-share total market capitalization grew from approximately 70 trillion yuan to over 100 trillion yuan, an increase of over 30% [2][6]. - More than 1,400 stocks have doubled in price, with the ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index both rising over 100% [2][6]. Policy Impact - The "9·24" policy, introduced on September 24, 2024, included measures to boost medium- and long-term capital inflows, reform mergers and acquisitions, and support technological innovation [2][4]. - Following the policy announcement, the Shanghai Composite Index surged by 4.15% in a single day, while the ChiNext Index soared by 5.54% [4]. Structural Changes - The A-share market has seen a profound transformation, with a focus on sustainable growth and a "slow bull" market trajectory following initial rapid responses to policy changes [5][6]. - The volatility of the market has decreased, with the annualized volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index at 15.9%, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous five-year period [6]. Mergers and Acquisitions - Over 230 major asset restructurings have been disclosed since the implementation of the "9·24" policy, marking a recent high [9]. - Innovative merger tools such as targeted convertible bonds and acquisition loans have revitalized market activity, facilitating a clearer direction for industrial integration [9][10]. Investor Sentiment - The investor base has evolved, with a significant increase in new accounts, totaling 30.57 million, an 83.86% increase compared to the previous period [13]. - Long-term capital, including insurance and social security funds, has also increased its presence in the market, with insurance funds' stock investments reaching 3.06 trillion yuan, a net increase of about 1 trillion yuan [14]. Future Outlook - The ongoing reforms are expected to further enhance market quality and foster a culture of long-term investment, with a focus on improving the quality of listed companies and refining foundational systems [14][15].

这一轮楼市的低迷，背后有多重因素交织。城镇化进程的放缓，使得年均新增城镇人口从过去的2000万锐减至1000万。更值得关注的是，作为购房主力军的 关键年龄段（25-44岁），其人口规模相较于2015年已大幅缩减了6000万。与此同时，社会层面也显露出"低欲望"的迹象：结婚登记人数预计跌破500万大 关，生育率更是低至1.09，已低于日本。 那么，为何在经历了四年之久的深度调整后，市场会以如此迅猛的势头做出反应？政策无疑是这一轮市场转折的关键催化剂。2025年9月，中国房地产市场 迎来了一系列力度空前、旨在提振市场的"救市"新政。从北京、上海等一线城市率先松绑限购，到提升公积金贷款额度、取消商业贷款利率的差异化政策， 再到大力推进城中村改造和推广"好房子"标准，一系列组合拳密集出台，迅速改变了市场预期。 值得注意的是，一线城市在政策调整上采取了更加精细化的策略。北京和上海打破了以往"一刀切"的模式，实施"环线差异化策略"。北京在五环外、上海在 外环外全面取消了购房套数限制，并且非户籍居民的社保缴纳年限要求也从过去的两年大幅缩减至一年。 对于当前市场的快速升温，许多人不禁发问：这究竟是昙花一现的反弹，还是市场真正 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - China's August CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while core CPI rose by 0.9%. PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.9% [1] - In the U.S., August PPI fell by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first decline in four months, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.6%, which was below expectations [1] Group 2: Market Overview - The U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the communication sector leading gains and the electric equipment sector lagging. The market turnover was 2 trillion yuan [2] - As of September 9, the financing balance increased by 5.952 billion yuan to 2.303495 trillion yuan. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, with potential incremental policies to boost the real economy in the fourth quarter [2][9] Group 3: Commodity Insights - In the dual焦 (coke and coal) market, the main contracts showed strong performance, with a slight decrease in coking coal positions. The overall demand remains weak, but policy expectations may provide support [3][20] - The palm oil market is under pressure, with Malaysia's August palm oil production at 1.85 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.35%, while exports decreased by 0.29% [22] Group 4: Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with five other departments, launched a special campaign to address online chaos in the automotive industry, focusing on self-inspection by companies and reporting channels [6] - The automotive industry is under scrutiny for online misconduct, with measures to correct violations and expose problematic accounts [6] Group 5: International Relations - Wang Yi, China's Foreign Minister, spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Rubio, emphasizing the need for stable U.S.-China relations and cooperation on global challenges [4]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices experienced a "V-shaped" rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.14% to 3843.6 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.25%, and the ChiNext Index climbing by 3.82%. The STAR 50 surged by 7.23%. The total market turnover was 3 trillion yuan, down from 3.2 trillion yuan the previous day [1] - In the first half of 2025, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the A-share market continued to heat up, becoming a "strong engine" for listed companies to drive performance growth and a core path for optimizing strategic layout and achieving industrial upgrades. There were 1113 domestic M&A transactions this year, with a total transaction amount of 509.214 billion yuan, representing a 62.75% increase compared to the same period last year. The most popular sectors for completed M&A transactions were traditional industries, intelligent manufacturing, and energy and electricity [1] Financial Market Insights - The U.S. stock indices rose, with significant gains in the communication and electronics sectors, while the coal sector declined. The market turnover was 3 trillion yuan. As of August 26, the financing balance increased by 20.194 billion yuan to 22,123.54 billion yuan. It is anticipated that domestic liquidity will remain loose, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year to boost the real economy. The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has increased, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB assets. The market is currently in a "policy bottom + liquidity bottom + valuation bottom" resonance period, with a high probability of continued market performance, although sector rotation and structural differentiation need to be adapted to [2][8] Commodity Market Analysis - Soybean meal showed weak fluctuations in the night session, while rapeseed meal saw a slight increase. The optimistic outlook for U.S. soybean production has strengthened market expectations for high yields in the new season. Ongoing trade talks between China and the U.S. have boosted confidence in U.S. soybean exports. In the domestic market, the announcement of the auction of 164,000 tons of imported soybeans by the China Grain Reserves Corporation has strengthened expectations for improved domestic raw material supply, leading to a bearish outlook for soybean meal in the short term [3][24] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, continued to strengthen. Concerns arose from Trump's attempts to challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve. The dovish stance indicated by Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting has increased expectations for a rate cut in September, benefiting precious metals. However, rising inflation data and geopolitical risks have limited the upward potential for gold. The long-term drivers for gold remain supportive, with the overall trend for gold and silver expected to be strong as the rate cut approaches [3][16] Industry News - The National Bureau of Statistics announced plans to accelerate the construction of data industry clusters and introduce several industrial policies this year, predicting that the added value of the digital economy will reach approximately 49 trillion yuan by the end of the year, accounting for about 35% of GDP [6] - The Ministry of Finance reported that in July, the issuance of new local government bonds reached 703.2 billion yuan, including 86.3 billion yuan in general bonds and 616.9 billion yuan in special bonds [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Politburo meeting on July 30, 2025, emphasized enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market to stabilize and boost investor confidence after fluctuations in the A-share market [2][5] Policy Driving Factors and Market Response - Market stability demand is evident as the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 5.54% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 6.34% in July, with daily trading volume reaching 1.64 trillion yuan [4] - The margin trading balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan, indicating increased leverage and heightened investor risk appetite [4] - New A-share accounts surged to 1.9636 million in July, a year-on-year increase of 70.54%, reflecting significant market attractiveness [4] Specific Policy Measures and Implementation Path - Long-term capital attraction is prioritized through optimizing tax policies for equity incentives and encouraging insurance and pension funds to increase equity investments [4] - Public fund development includes relaxing registration conditions for index funds and promoting fee reforms to enhance market structure [4] - Enhancements in the quality of listed companies involve promoting mid-term dividends and revising share buyback regulations [4] Expert Interpretation and Long-term Impact - The policy is characterized as a long-term national strategy aimed at reshaping capital market logic and enhancing valuation benchmarks [4] - Structural differentiation is noted, with strong regulatory industries facing significant policy impacts while supported sectors like renewable energy benefit from valuation support [4] - Initial market reactions may be excessive, necessitating observation of subsequent execution strength and stabilization of leading company profits [4] Future Trends and Challenges - Continuous policy efforts are anticipated, with potential new measures if economic improvement weakens in the second half of the year [4] - Market structure optimization is expected, with the stock ETF scale projected to grow significantly over the next five years [4] - Attention is required on external risks such as US-China relations and global inflation, alongside internal balancing of growth and risk prevention [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the resilience of the Chinese economy, evidenced by record electricity consumption and trading volumes in the stock market, indicating a positive economic outlook and effective policy measures [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The A-share market indices have shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising by 12.51%, 14.45%, and 21.19% respectively year-to-date [1]. - In July, China's total electricity consumption reached 10,226 billion kilowatt-hours, marking an 8.6% year-on-year increase and doubling compared to ten years ago [1][7]. - China's foreign trade maintained a steady growth trajectory, with total import and export value reaching 25.7 trillion yuan in the first seven months of the year, reflecting a 3.5% year-on-year increase [1]. Group 2: Policy Developments - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange has initiated pilot green foreign debt projects in 16 provinces and cities, encouraging non-financial enterprises to use cross-border financing for green or low-carbon transformation projects [1]. - The government is expected to introduce more incremental policies in the second half of the year to boost the real economy, as the domestic liquidity remains accommodative [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The stock market is currently in a phase characterized by a "policy bottom + liquidity bottom + valuation bottom," suggesting a high probability of continued market performance, albeit with accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation [2][10]. - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors have led the market gains, while the machinery and equipment sector has lagged [2]. Group 4: Energy Sector Insights - The significant increase in electricity consumption is paralleled by a strong performance in the energy sector, with renewable energy sources like wind and solar power rapidly increasing their share, accounting for nearly a quarter of total consumption [1][7]. - The article notes the impact of external factors, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and trade negotiations, on market dynamics and investor sentiment [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Policy combination punches from the frontier to industries, from banks to the stock market, are gradually advancing, aiming to stabilize growth, promote transformation, and boost confidence, adding certainty to the full - year economic recovery [1]. - The current domestic market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", and the probability of the market trend continuing is high, but it is necessary to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation [2][11]. - The overall situation of gold and silver may show a volatile trend as the expectation of interest rate cuts rises [3][19]. Summary by Directory 1. Chief Comment - Regional cooperation is further strengthened, and the financial toolbox is expanding. The capital market sentiment is warming up, and the policy combination is promoting economic recovery [1]. 2. Key Varieties Index Futures - The US three major indices mainly declined. The domestic market had a late - afternoon rally, with the beauty care sector leading the rise and the pharmaceutical and biological sector falling. The market turnover was 2.45 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased. In 2025, domestic liquidity will remain loose, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. External risks are gradually easing, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is increasing. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SHS 300 are more defensive [2][11]. Precious Metals - Last week's unexpected US inflation data pressured gold and silver. Positive signals from US - Russia negotiations reduced geopolitical risks. The employment market's weakness supported precious metal prices. The Fed's internal views are divided, and the long - term drivers of gold still provide support. Gold and silver may fluctuate as the interest - rate cut expectation rises [3][19]. Crude Oil - SC night trading rose 0.95%. There was a multi - party meeting on the Ukraine issue. India's state - owned refiner continued to buy Russian crude oil. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. Future OPEC production increases should be monitored [4][5][13]. 3. Main News on the Day International News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with only two opposing. There were differences among Fed officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation, but most thought the risk of rising inflation was higher than that of falling employment [6]. Domestic News - China's new LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months. The 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year and above was 3.5%. This was in line with expectations as the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, the basis for LPR pricing, did not change [7]. Industry News - The State Council General Office forwarded a Ministry of Finance document, stating that existing PPP projects should be promoted in a classified and hierarchical manner, with priority given to projects with certain returns [8]. 4. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The report provides the daily return data of various overseas market varieties on August 19 and 20, including the S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and others, showing their price changes and percentage changes [9]. 5. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Index Futures**: Similar to the key varieties section, the market is in a favorable position, and different indices have different characteristics [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally fell. The central bank's open - market operations, LPR stability, and US economic data all had an impact. The bond market may continue to be weak due to factors such as the stock - bond seesaw effect and tax policies [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Similar to the key varieties section, pay attention to international events and inventory changes, as well as future OPEC production [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol night trading rose. The domestic methanol device's operating load decreased slightly, and the coastal inventory increased. It is expected to be bullish in the short term [14][15]. - **Rubber**: The price is mainly supported by the supply side. The demand side is weak, and the short - term trend may continue to decline [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures closed up. The market is mainly driven by supply and demand, with inventory slowly being digested. Pay attention to the autumn stocking market [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures mainly fell. The supply is shrinking, but inventory is rising. Focus on the fundamental repair process [18]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Similar to the key varieties section, gold and silver may fluctuate as the interest - rate cut expectation rises [19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night. The concentrate processing fee is low, and downstream demand is mixed. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The concentrate processing fee is rising, and supply may recover. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is volatile. Supply is increasing, demand is also growing, and inventory changes are complex. There is a risk of correction, but there may be room for price increases if inventory decreases [23]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore demand is supported by strong steel production. Global iron ore shipments have decreased recently, and the mid - term supply - demand imbalance is a concern. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [24]. - **Steel**: Steel supply pressure is emerging, but inventory is decreasing. Exports are facing challenges, and the market is expected to be volatile and bullish [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - trading of coking coal and coke was volatile. The steel demand is in the off - season, and the coking coal market is in a multi - empty game with a wide - range volatile trend [26][27]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices fell at night. The good growth of US soybeans weakened the US soybean futures price, but the import cost supports the domestic market [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: Bean and palm oil rose at night, while rapeseed oil was weak. The increase in Malaysian palm oil exports and concerns about Indonesia's production support palm oil prices, but there is a risk of decline due to US biodiesel news [29]. - **Sugar**: International sugar is entering the inventory - accumulation stage, and the domestic market is supported by high sales rates and low inventories but may be dragged down by processed sugar. Both are expected to be volatile [30]. - **Cotton**: ICE US cotton fell. The domestic cotton supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be volatile and bullish with limited upside [31]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC contract fell. The shipping rate is decreasing, and the market is expected to be volatile, with the shipping rate expected to slow down in early September [32][33].