Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention any investment ratings for the industry. Core Views - **Copper**: Macro factors continue to drive up copper prices, but caution is needed for a potential high - level pullback before the New Year's Day holiday. Last week, copper prices accelerated their upward movement, with SHFE copper reaching the 100,000 - yuan mark and open interest rising to 660,000 contracts. The market liquidity recovered after the yen interest rate hike in late December, pushing up copper prices. However, the pressure on the mid - and downstream industries has been increasing, with the basis and calendar spreads weakening and the social inventory of electrolytic copper rising significantly. The benchmark processing fee for copper concentrate long - term contracts in 2026 is set at $0/ton, much lower than in 2025, which may lead to production cuts and intensify supply shortage expectations. The short - term upward momentum is strong, but the price is at a historical high, and there is a divergence between the domestic industrial pressure (high inventory, weak consumption) and the strong macro expectations. Also, with the approaching New Year's Day holiday, there may be an increasing willingness to close positions, so a high - level pullback risk should be watched out for [5][60]. - **Aluminum**: Macro factors are positive, while industrial factors are negative, leading to high - level oscillations in aluminum prices. Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The macro environment improved after the yen interest rate hike. On the industrial side, as aluminum prices rose, downstream hesitation increased, and the spot discount remained weak. The expectation of aluminum replacing copper in the home appliance sector provides support for long - term demand. The short - term rise in aluminum prices is largely driven by the strong performance of copper prices, and its own upward momentum is weak, with significant divergence between bulls and bears. Attention can be continuously paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6][60]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - After the yen interest rate hike, market liquidity recovered, the US dollar index showed a weak performance, and copper prices trended upward [10]. 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, copper prices accelerated their upward movement, with SHFE copper reaching the 100,000 - yuan mark, and open interest rising to 660,000 contracts, indicating high short - term capital attention and a significant increase in volatility [5][16]. 2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - Last week, the port inventory of copper ore continued to recover from a low level and was approaching the same - period level of previous years. On December 26, Mysteel's port inventory of copper ore was 670,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 10,000 tons. The benchmark processing fee for copper concentrate long - term contracts in 2026 is set at $0/ton and $0 cents/pound, which lays a price support foundation for 2026 from the industrial perspective [25]. 2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory Accumulation - On December 25, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic copper was 202,200 tons, a weekly increase of 27,700 tons. On December 26, the combined inventory of COMEX and LME was 640,000 tons, a weekly increase of 17,400 tons. The continuous rise in copper prices has significantly suppressed downstream consumption, leading to an increase in inventory [27]. 2.4 Downstream Primary Processing - SMM expects the total output of the copper rod industry in December to decrease by 45,000 tons month - on - month to 1 million tons. In terms of operating rates, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises was 65.07%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.58 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.53 percentage points. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 19.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.23 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 16.73 percentage points [29]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and the volatility increased. The macro environment improved after the yen interest rate hike [6]. 3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - On December 26, the port inventory of bauxite was 2.60207 billion tons, a decrease of 5.93 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 821.07 million tons compared with the same period in 2024. Last week, alumina prices rebounded significantly, driven by the macro improvement, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum plants shrank in the short term as the electrolytic aluminum price oscillated at a high level [45][46]. 3.3 Slowdown in Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Reduction - On December 25, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 612,000 tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the previous week. The overseas inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 527,500 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons from the previous week. The high - level operation of aluminum prices has suppressed downstream consumption, and the domestic inventory has increased significantly [50]. 3.4 Downstream Primary Processing - Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods decreased significantly, reflecting the suppression of downstream demand by high aluminum prices. On December 25, the inventory of aluminum rods was 96,000 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the previous week, indicating a decrease in downstream operating rates and the start of inventory consumption [55][57]. 4. Conclusion - **Copper**: The short - term upward momentum is strong, but the price is at a historical high, and there is a divergence between the domestic industrial pressure (high inventory, weak consumption) and the strong macro expectations. With the approaching New Year's Day holiday, a high - level pullback risk should be watched out for [5][60]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term rise is largely driven by the strong performance of copper prices, and its own upward momentum is weak, with significant divergence between bulls and bears. Attention can be continuously paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6][60].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 强势 | 强势 | 强势 | 短线看强 | 日元加息落地，短期流动性回升 | | 铜 | 2602 | 强势 | 强势 | 强势 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松，矿端减产 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：强势 中期观点：强势 参考观点：短线看强 核心逻辑：昨日金价强势上行， ...

有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 期货研究报告 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 23 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 镍持续增仓上行 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜维持震荡态势，持仓量小幅下降。宏观层面，美元指数 持续走弱，利好有色。产业层面，下游观望氛围较浓。短期伦铜逼近 1.2 万美元关口，沪铜逼近 12 月上旬高位，有较强的技术压力，多 头了结意愿较强。回调关注 5 日均线支撑。 沪铝 早盘沪铝减仓跳水，随后 V 型反弹，整体持仓量下降明显。宏观 层面，美元指数持续走弱，利好有色。产业层面，基差月差维持弱 势，产业端牵制较强。铝价再度回升 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 12 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短线看强 | 日元加息落地，短期流动性回升 | | 铜 | 2602 | 强势 | 强势 | 强势 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松，矿端减产 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看强 核心逻辑：昨日黄金上行明显，纽约金站上 4400 美元，直冲 4500 美元，沪金站上 1000 元关口，并 突破 10 月底高位。拉长时间来看，自 10 月底中美元首釜山会晤后，市场的风险偏好持续回升，金价 呈现高位震荡态势。目前金价突破向上，很大程度上是由于短期日元加息落地，市场流动 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 12 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短线看强 | 日元加息落地，短期流动性回升 | | 铜 | 2602 | 强势 | 强势 | 强势 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松，矿端减产 | 说明： 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看强 核心逻辑：上周金价震荡上行。宏观层面，美元指数触底回升，利空黄金；日元加息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in global stock markets, particularly focusing on the impact of the Japanese yen's interest rate hike and its implications for investors. It emphasizes the cyclical nature of interest rates and the potential investment opportunities arising from these fluctuations. Group 1: Market Trends - This week, global stock markets experienced a slight decline followed by a rebound, with the U.S. stock market showing minor fluctuations [3][4]. - The first half of the week saw a downturn in global markets, attributed to the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike of 25 basis points, which was in line with market expectations [5][18]. Group 2: Interest Rate Impact - The yen's interest rate increase is characterized as a "gray rhino" event, indicating it was anticipated rather than unexpected [6][7]. - Japan's interest rates have been on a downward trend since the 1980s, reaching near-zero levels from 2015 to 2020 due to high household debt levels during the 80s and 90s [8][9][10]. - Recently, Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen from near zero to around 2%, influenced by rising inflation and improved consumer spending power [16]. Group 3: Global Market Reactions - The impact of the yen's interest rate hike on global markets has been relatively minor compared to the significant declines seen during the U.S. dollar's rate hikes in 2022 [18][19]. - The U.S. dollar's influence on global markets is more substantial due to its larger market size, and the focus remains on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [19][20]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Interest rates are cyclical, and historical trends suggest that the latter stages of rate hike cycles often present undervalued buying opportunities [22][24]. - The article notes that the global stock market currently has a valuation rating of around 3.1 stars, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical standards [30][31]. Group 5: Investment Products - The article mentions the availability of global stock index funds in overseas markets, which have a substantial scale exceeding one trillion dollars, while domestic markets currently lack such products [33]. - A new "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" has been introduced, which diversifies investments across various stock markets, including U.S., UK, Hong Kong, and A-shares [34][36].

记者丨叶映橙,见习记者林健民 编辑丨谭婷 此前，日本央行鹰派于去年7月31日加息，引发日元快速升值，并在8月5日导致日经225指数 下挫12.4%，日元套息交易反转，一时间全球金融市场动荡，当天纽约黄金期货价格振幅近 4%，收跌0.72%。 值得注意的是，机构认为日本加息空间或有限，其对黄金牛市根基的动摇可能是有限 的。 此前12月8日，上海期货交易所亦发布风险提示称，近期国际形势复杂多变，贵金属市场波动 较大，请各有关单位采取相应措施，提示投资者做好风险防范工作，理性投资，共同维护市 场平稳运行。 从全球宏观经济环境看， 驱动黄金上涨的长期宏观逻辑并未改变。 12月9日，国际贵金属价格剧烈波动，COMEX黄金期货价格突然急速下挫，一度失守4200美 元大关，随后震荡回升，截至北京时间19:30，报4232美元/盎司，涨超0.3%；COMEX白银盘 中跌破59美元/盎司，现已回升至附近。 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | | --- | --- | --- | | 4204.150 | 58.563 | 4230.8 | | +13.750 +0.33% | +0.468 +0.81% | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) Governor Ueda Kazuo has ignited market expectations for interest rate hikes, indicating that the BOJ will assess the pros and cons of raising rates at the upcoming policy meeting on December 19, with an 80% market expectation for a rate hike by year-end [1] Group 1: Economic Context - Japan has maintained near-zero or negative interest rates since 1990 to stimulate the economy, leading to the yen being the cheapest financing currency globally [1][2] - The "Watanabe-san" group, representing Japanese housewives, has utilized low yen rates for carry trades, accounting for nearly one-third of Japan's retail forex market [2] - The yen's depreciation against the dollar has increased import costs and sustained imported inflation, while Japan's government debt exceeds 230% of GDP [3] Group 2: Market Implications - The potential for a rate hike raises borrowing costs for yen, creating pressure on carry traders who may need to liquidate overseas assets to repay yen-denominated debts, leading to a sudden contraction in global liquidity [3][4] - The reversal of carry trades is seen as a bellwether for changes in global market risk appetite, with high-value and high-leverage assets, such as tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, facing significant sell-offs [4]

王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] [Table_Reportdate] 2025年12月07日 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [美元降息与日元加息预期，资产再平衡 Table_NewTitle] 下寻找确定性 ——资产配置周报（2025/12/01-2025/12/05） [table_main] 投资要点 总 量 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [Table_Report] ➢ 全球大类资产回顾。12月5日当周，全球股市多数上涨，A股表现相对较好；主要商品期货 中铜、原油、铝收涨，黄金收跌；美元指数小幅下跌，非美货币升值。1）权益方面： ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate hikes in Japan have significantly impacted global financial markets, with historical precedents suggesting potential volatility and recovery patterns in response to these changes [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Context of Rate Hikes - The analysis reviews three past interest rate hikes in Japan from 2024 to early 2025, indicating that each hike was closely tied to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, leading to rapid market recoveries [3]. - On March 19, 2024, the Bank of Japan raised rates from -0.1% to a range of 0 to 0.1%, initially causing a stable Nasdaq index, which later experienced a decline but eventually reached new highs [3]. - The most significant hike occurred on July 31, 2024, raising rates to 0.25%, resulting in a more than 12% drop in the Nikkei index and nearly 20% cumulative decline, although both indices recovered quickly [5]. Group 2: Current Market Reactions - On December 1, 2025, the Bank of Japan's hawkish comments about ending ultra-loose monetary policy led to a 2% drop in the Nikkei 225 index and a subsequent decline in U.S. markets [6]. - By December, the probability of a rate hike had risen to 60%, with expectations exceeding 90% by the end of January [6]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The expectation of rate hikes is supported by rising domestic wages and corporate willingness to increase salaries, alongside inflation nearing the 2% target, indicating that the current monetary easing cannot be sustained [8]. Group 4: Impact on Global Markets - The prolonged low-interest rates in Japan have turned the yen into a shadow currency, facilitating significant carry trades that have funded high-risk assets globally [10]. - As of November 30, 2025, many international institutions borrowed low-interest yen to invest in U.S. and European markets, with some adopting aggressive strategies involving leverage in high-volatility tech stocks [12]. Group 5: Asset Class Vulnerabilities - In the event of a rate hike, technology and growth assets are expected to be the most affected, as yen carry trades are a crucial source of liquidity for U.S. markets, particularly in AI and semiconductor sectors [15]. - Value-oriented assets are likely to experience less decline due to lower leverage and valuation, making them more resilient compared to high-valuation tech stocks [14].