Demand Forecast - IEA lowers 2024 global oil demand growth forecast to 722 thousand barrels per day, down from 739 thousand barrels per day [1] - IEA lowers 2023 global oil demand growth forecast to 704 thousand barrels per day, a decrease from 724 thousand barrels per day, marking the lowest growth since 2009 excluding the pandemic [1] Supply Dynamics - Global oil supply is expected to increase to 2100 thousand barrels per day in 2023, up from the previous forecast of 1800 thousand barrels per day, driven by OPEC+ production increases [1]

IEA在月度油市报告中将今年全球石油需求增长预测从72.4万桶/日下调至70.4万桶/日（除疫情外，2009年以来最低增速），明年预期从73.9万桶/日下调至72.2万桶/日。随着欧佩克+增产，今年全球供应量将从此前预测的180万桶/日增加至210万桶/日。None (@None):None ...

7月11日，国际能源署（IEA）发布月度原油市场报告，将2025年平均石油需求增长预期下调至70.4万 桶/日（之前预估为72万桶/日），将2026年平均石油需求增长预期下调至72.2万桶/日（之前预估为74万 桶/日）。 ...

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global oil demand will average 104.4 million barrels per day by 2026 [1] Industry Summary - The IEA's monthly report indicates a significant increase in oil demand, suggesting a robust recovery and growth in the global energy sector [1]

IEA月报：将2025年平均石油需求增长预期下调至70.4万桶/日（之前预估为72万桶/日），将2026年平均 石油需求增长预期下调至72.2万桶/日（之前预估为74万桶/日）。 国际能源署（IEA）：近期石油需求显著放缓 ...

Group 1 - The IEA has revised down its average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 704,000 barrels per day from a previous estimate of 720,000 barrels per day [1] - The IEA has also lowered its average oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 722,000 barrels per day, down from an earlier estimate of 740,000 barrels per day [1]

在周四发布的年度《世界石油展望》报告中，欧佩克再次强化其长期能源观点，认为全球石油需求在 2050年前将持续增长，需求峰值遥遥无期。 该组织上调了需求预测，预计在人口增长和经济强劲的支撑下，全球石油需求量将从去年的1.037亿桶/ 日增至2030年的1.133亿桶/日，到2050年将接近1.23亿桶/日。 欧佩克强调，石油将继续在满足能源需求中扮演关键角色。预计到2050年，石油仍将占据全球能源结构 的最大份额(约30%)，如果加上天然气，这一比例将超过50%。 欧佩克秘书长Haitham Al Ghais在报告前言中表示："石油是全球经济的基石，也是现代生活的核心要 素。目前完全看不到石油需求见顶的迹象。" 这一乐观预测与其他机构的保守展望形成鲜明对比。国际能源署(IEA)预计全球石油需求将在2029年见 顶，而标普全球大宗商品洞察则认为需求可能在2035年后开始下滑。 周四，原油期货结束此前连续三个交易日的涨势转而走低，市场担忧特朗普总统新宣布的关税政策可能 拖累全球经济增长。 特朗普威胁对拉美最大经济体巴西输美商品征收50%惩罚性关税，并宣布将对铜、半导体和药品加征关 税。 据报道，欧佩克+代表团正考虑 ...

欧佩克+下调未来四年全球石油需求预期，同时考虑10月起暂停增产，进入观望期，油价不涨反跌，美油倾向释放卖出信号，后 市情绪如何？欢迎前往"数据库-嘉盛市场晴雨表"查看并订阅（数据每10分钟更新1次） WTI原油 香港恒生指数 78% 22% 标普500指数 73% 27% 纳斯达克指数 15% 85% 道琼斯指数 39% 61% 日经225指数 40% 60% 德国DAX40指 19% 81% 数 外汇 r 多头 空头 欧元/美元 36% 64% 欧元/英镑 18% 82% 欧元/日元 9% 91% 欧元/澳元 54% 46% 英镑/美元 21% 79% 英镑/日元 32% 68% 美元/日元 70% 30% 美元/加元 45% 55% 美元/瑞郎 92% 8% ...

原油日报 | 2025-07-11 欧佩克决定10月后暂停增产 市场要闻与重要数据 1、\t纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌1.81美元，收于每桶66.57美元，跌幅为2.65%；9月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌1.55美元，收于每桶68.64美元，跌幅为2.21%。SC原油主力合约收跌1.44%，报513元/ 桶。 2、 美国总统特朗普：美联储应迅速降息。(来源：Bloomberg） 3、\t欧佩克在周四发布的《2025年世界石油展望》中表示，今年全球石油需求平均为1.05亿桶/日，预计2026年全 球石油需求将增至1.063亿桶/日，2029年将攀升至1.116亿桶/日。对2026年至2029年需求的预测均低于去年的预期。 欧佩克仍预计2030年日均需求为1.133亿桶，与去年预测相同。欧佩克预计，到2050年，全球石油需求将达到1.229 亿桶/日，高于去年报告中预测的1.201亿桶/日。与此同时，欧佩克预计需求增长的持续时间将长于其他预测者，IEA 预计石油需求将在2020年代达到峰值。（来源：Bloomberg） 4、\t欧佩克+讨论从10月起暂停增产。（来源：Bloomberg） ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is to hold long positions with short - term shock consolidation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of crude oil is shock consolidation, and long positions are recommended to be held [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs International Crude Oil - WTI August crude oil futures closed down $1.81 per barrel, a 2.65% decline, at $66.57 per barrel; Brent September crude oil futures closed down $1.55 per barrel, a 2.21% decline, at $68.64 per barrel; SC2508 crude oil futures closed down 7.50 yuan per barrel, a 1.44% decline, at 512.80 yuan per barrel [1] Industry News - Kazakhstan plans to maintain the current oil production level until the end of this year [2] - The EU Commission is expected to propose a floating price cap for Russian oil as part of the 18th round of sanctions [2] - As of the week ending July 4, the total US natural gas inventory was 3006 billion cubic feet, an increase of 53 billion cubic feet from the previous week, a 5.8% year - on - year decrease, and 6.1% higher than the 5 - year average [2] - OPEC + is discussing pausing further production increases after the next monthly increase. It has a preliminary plan to complete the last stage of restoring 2.2 million barrels of supply in September with a monthly increase of 550,000 barrels [2] - The UAE Energy Minister said that the country can increase oil production capacity after 2027 and achieve a capacity of 6 million barrels per day [2] - OPEC lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years but raised the long - term demand forecast. It expects global oil demand to reach 122.9 million barrels per day in 2050 [2][5] - As of the week ending July 9, Singapore's fuel oil inventory rose 1.328 million barrels to a 29 - week high of 24.708 million barrels [5] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 5 was 227,000, lower than the expected 235,000 [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 2, indicating a strong bullish view [4]