油价风云突变：10月13日调整或将搁浅？ 牵动万千车主神经的新一轮国内油价调整窗口，已确定将于10月13日24时开启。国庆节前，市场普遍预期油价将迎来大幅上调。然而，随着国际油价近期大 幅跳水，这一预期是否会落空，油价调整最终搁浅？有料财经将为您深度剖析这背后的复杂博弈。 国际油价"跌跌不休" 本周国际原油市场遭遇重挫，伦敦布伦特原油期货价格收报64.36美元/桶，周跌幅超过7%，创下近四个月来的新低。美国WTI原油期货价格也大幅下挫，跌 至60.35美元/桶。 三大因素联手打压油价 有料财经认为，国际油价此番大幅下跌，主要受到以下三大因素的影响： OPEC增产预期升温：华尔街国际金融机构的原油交易员普遍预计，欧佩克将在11月增加13.7万桶/日的原油产量。此外，沙特阿拉伯方面也表示，将根据市 场情况灵活调整原油产量，这进一步强化了市场对原油供应增加的预期。有料财经统计数据显示，欧佩克原油产量已连续五个月呈现增长态势。 | | 汽油(标准品) | 柴油(标准品) | | --- | --- | --- | | 一、实行一省一价的地区 | | | | 北京市 | 8860 | 7855 | | 十十八十 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Core View - If the Russia - Ukraine situation doesn't change and they fail to reach a peace agreement on August 27th, India will face an additional 25% tariff, which will impact India's economy and oil demand and lead to a downward revision of India's oil demand [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 81 cents to $63.52 per barrel, a 1.29% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery in London rose 83 cents to $67.67 per barrel, a 1.24% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 1.27% at 493 yuan per barrel [1] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney had a phone call with US President Trump on Thursday to discuss trade challenges and opportunities [2] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu instructed to immediately start negotiations to release all hostages in Gaza and end the war there under acceptable conditions [2] - The US imposed sanctions on vessels and entities related to Iran [2] - Indian Ambassador to Russia Vinay Kumar said that despite US pressure, New Delhi will continue to buy Russian oil. On August 21st, the foreign ministers of Russia and India will discuss strengthening strategic partnership in Moscow. Kumar emphasized that India won't consider an embargo on Russian oil for reasons of national security, economy, energy interests, and the energy needs of its 1.4 billion people [2] Investment Logic - The hope of a Russia - Ukraine peace agreement on August 27th is slim. If the situation remains unchanged, India will face an additional 25% tariff, which will impact its economy and oil demand and cause a downward revision of its oil demand [2] Strategy - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Risk - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]

Core Viewpoint - BP's CEO, Murray Auchincloss, stated that oil supply growth from non-OPEC countries is expected to peak by early 2026, while demand remains strong [1] Supply Insights - Non-OPEC oil supply is projected to stabilize around February or March of next year, with steady growth expected over the following 12 to 18 months [1] - Recent supply growth from non-OPEC countries has been driven by nations like Guyana and the United States, with BP anticipating increased oil and gas production from these regions [1] - Brazil is highlighted as a significant contributor to non-OPEC oil production and is noted for being the site of BP's largest oil discovery in nearly 25 years [1] Demand Insights - Demand for oil is currently described as "still strong," with expectations for growth in both this year and next [1] - Petrochemical products are anticipated to lead consumption trends in the coming year, with robust market demand for these products [1] Market Dynamics - Auchincloss pointed out that sanctions related to Russia and Iran, along with China's oil storage purchases, are key factors driving oil price increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Onkyo stated that global oil demand is "very, very strong" indicating a robust market outlook for the oil industry [1] Industry Summary - The current global oil demand is experiencing significant strength, suggesting potential growth opportunities for companies within the oil sector [1] - The strong demand may lead to increased investments and strategic initiatives aimed at capitalizing on this trend [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities (crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, polyvinyl chloride) are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][3][5][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy - chemical commodities on August 1, 2025. It takes into account factors such as price changes, trade agreements, production data, and supply - demand relationships. Overall, most commodities are expected to show an oscillating trend, with specific trends affected by factors like tariffs, production capacity utilization, and downstream demand [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices declined. WTI 9 - month contract fell by $0.74 to $69.26 per barrel, a 1.06% drop; Brent 9 - month contract dropped by $0.71 to $72.53 per barrel, a 0.97% decline; SC2509 closed at 528.2 yuan per barrel, down 3.8 yuan or 0.71%. Trade agreements and potential sanctions may affect future oil demand, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contracts of high - sulfur (FU2509) and low - sulfur (LU2510) fuel oil declined. The overall supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is sufficient, while high - sulfur fuel oil faces supply pressure. If oil prices stabilize, the absolute prices of FU and LU may rebound. The LU - FU spread has rebounded from a low level [2] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract (BU2509) rose. The supply is expected to increase, but the increment is limited. The demand is affected by precipitation, but there is positive support after the rainy season. The spot price is relatively firm, and short - term long positions can be considered after oil price stabilization [2] - **Polyester**: TA509 and EG2509 prices fell on Thursday. Some production facilities had temporary shutdowns and restarts. With cost support from the peak oil demand season, increased supply, and resilient downstream demand, polyester prices are expected to oscillate [3] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the prices of various rubber contracts declined. In June, global natural rubber production decreased by 1.5% to 1191,000 tons, while consumption increased by 0.7% to 1271,000 tons. With increased rainfall in domestic production areas and improved downstream tire production and sales, rubber prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [3][5] - **Methanol**: After the Iranian device load returned to a high level and the arrival volume increased, the downstream profit and start - up remained stable, and inventory continued to increase. Methanol prices are expected to enter an oscillating phase after valuation repair [5] - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand. As long as the cost does not drop significantly, the downside space is limited [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The supply of PVC remains high - level oscillating, demand is gradually recovering, and the supply - demand gap is narrowing with slow inventory decline. The basis and monthly spread have widened, and short - selling power may recover [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis of various energy - chemical commodities on August 1, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared to the previous day [8] 3.3 Market News - Trump announced a 90 - day extension of the trade agreement with Mexico, with Mexico continuing to pay certain tariffs. Market analysts believe these tariffs are unfavorable to future oil demand [10] - On July 31, the EIA data showed that US crude oil production in May reached a record high of 13.49 million barrels per day. OPEC members have accelerated production increases since May, which may lead to market supply surplus [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical commodities from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][14][15] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various commodities, such as the basis of crude oil, fuel oil, etc., and their changes over time [29][30][33] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various commodities, like fuel oil, asphalt, etc., including the spreads between different months [44][45][46] 3.4.4 Inter - commodity Spreads - It presents the spread and ratio charts between different commodities, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of asphalt to crude oil, etc. [65][66][67] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of some commodities, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [69][74] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, awards, and professional experiences [76][77][78] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, with a postal code of 200127 [81]

Core Viewpoint - India's crude oil imports in June fell to a five-month low, indicating a seasonal decline in domestic oil demand due to the monsoon season, despite an overall upward trend in oil demand year-on-year [1]. Group 1: Import Data - In June, India's crude oil imports decreased by 4.7% month-on-month to 20.32 million tons, marking the lowest level since February of this year [1]. - The preliminary government data indicated that crude throughput at Indian refineries also declined by 4.2% month-on-month to 5.41 million barrels per day [1]. Group 2: Refinery Operations - The operating rate of Indian refineries in June was lower than in May, attributed to the seasonal drop in domestic oil demand during the monsoon [1]. - This trend of reduced refinery operations is expected to continue into July [1]. Group 3: Year-on-Year Comparison - Despite the month-on-month decline, year-on-year crude oil imports are expected to rise due to the ongoing increase in India's oil demand [1].

Demand Forecast - IEA lowers 2024 global oil demand growth forecast to 722 thousand barrels per day [1] - IEA lowers 2023 global oil demand growth forecast to 704 thousand barrels per day, the lowest since 2009 excluding the pandemic [1] Supply Forecast - Global oil supply is expected to increase to 2.1 million barrels per day in 2024, up from the previous forecast of 1.8 million barrels per day, due to OPEC+ production increases [1]

Group 1 - OPEC believes that oil demand has not yet peaked and has raised its forecast for oil demand in 2050 to 122.9 million barrels per day [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that OPEC forecasts a global oil demand increase of approximately 19% by 2050, reaching nearly 123 million barrels per day [1] - OPEC has revised down its global oil demand forecasts for the years 2026, 2027, 2028, and 2029 [1]

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects an increase in global oil demand by 720,000 barrels per day in 2025 and by 740,000 barrels per day in 2026 [1] - Global oil demand is expected to reach 103.8 million barrels per day in 2025 and 104.5 million barrels per day in 2026 [1] - After 2026, the growth rate of oil demand is anticipated to slow significantly, nearly stagnating [1]