证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-08-25 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20250818：高质量发展孕育"创新牛" 四重"创新"带来流动性和估值的双重改善 2025 年的"创新牛"本质 是政策引导下资本定价后产业落地的正向循环。宏观政策通过财政货币 工具锚定产业方向，资本市场通过制度创新实现价值发现，增量资金提供 流动性支撑，最终产业趋势通过技术突破兑现盈利。当前，这一闭环仍在 强化：宏观政策的落地仍在进程中、"科特估"体系在逐步完善、中长期 资金入市将逐年完成指标要求、技术国产化盈利尚未完全释放潜力。 当 前，市场的流动性和估值已有改善，随着 2025 年 8 月 13 日 A 股成交额 再次突破 2 万亿元，成交额持续抬升的过程中市场仍在向上突破，呈现 交易结构和情绪的正向循环。融资余额超过 2 万亿创历史新高，保险资 金持续举牌仍在增持金融股，在市场情绪持续向好、增量资金持续入场和 科技产业创新持续突破的背景下，"创新牛"的初期，市场风格大概率沿 着长线资金偏好的金融板块和科技产业有趋势的板块的机器人、海内外 算力、创新药等方向继续延伸。未 ...

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者王兆寰 北京报道 8月底的A股有加速上攻之势，沪指连续站上3700点和3800点两个整数关口，迭创10年来新高。 其中，"大科技"成为了"显眼包"，科创板和创业板公司"20cm涨停"简直不要太爽。寒武纪- U(688256.SH)成为龙头，股价站上1200元，直逼茅台，成为新晋网红。 据同花顺iFinD统计进一步显示，科创50指数本周（18日至22日）涨幅为13.31%，位居第一；8月以来累 计涨幅19.09%，依旧霸榜。22日，在主力资金净流入排行榜上，芯片概念净流入241.75亿元，位居第 一；人工智能净流入197.16亿元，位居第二；DeepSeek概念净流入194.62亿元，位居第三。 东吴证券认为，本轮"慢牛"正是宏观政策、资本市场政策、资金结构和科技产业的四重创新趋势的叠 加，实质上是经济高质量发展转型的过程所孕育的"创新牛"。在市场情绪持续向好、增量资金持续入场 和科技产业创新持续突破的背景下，"创新牛"的初期，市场风格大概率沿着长线资金偏好的金融板块和 科技产业有趋势的板块的机器人、海内外算力、创新药等方向继续延伸。 未来随着AI+的应用场景落地， ...

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint is that the "innovation bull market" in 2025 is a positive cycle driven by policy guidance, capital pricing, and industrial implementation, with macro policies anchoring industrial direction and capital markets facilitating value discovery [1][30] - The market liquidity and valuation have improved, with A-share trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan, indicating a positive trading structure and sentiment cycle [1][30] - The initial phase of the "innovation bull" is likely to extend towards financial sectors and technology industries, particularly in areas like robotics, computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1][30] Industry Insights - In the soft drink industry, companies with strong single-product capabilities are positioned as leaders, with high growth potential in bottled water, sugar-free tea, energy drinks, and electrolyte water [5] - The AI chip market is dominated by Nvidia, with its NVLink technology allowing for high-speed communication between GPUs, while competitors face challenges in matching this technology [6] - The food and beverage sector is seeing a shift towards health-oriented and functional products, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring being highlighted for their strong market positions [5] Company Analysis - JD Group's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, leading to an adjustment in EPS forecasts for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [7] - Xiaomi Group is expected to benefit from high-end product positioning and global expansion, with a maintained "buy" rating based on its automotive and AIoT business growth [8] - The newly launched "Dazhen" product from Zhenjiu Li Du aims to capture market demand with a competitive price point, indicating a strategic move to enhance market presence [9] - Xpeng Motors' cautious revenue forecast reflects increased R&D costs, yet the company maintains a "buy" rating due to improving gross margins and competitive AI capabilities [10] - Huazhu Group's Q2 results show strong revenue growth driven by a light-asset model, with an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [21]

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the "innovation bull market" in 2025 is a positive cycle driven by policy guidance, capital pricing, and industrial implementation, leading to liquidity and valuation improvements [1][24][25] - The report highlights that macro policies are still being implemented, the "科特估" (Keto Estimation) system is gradually improving, and the entry of medium to long-term funds into the market will meet annual targets [1][24][25] - As of August 13, 2025, the A-share trading volume has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, indicating a positive market sentiment and structural trading cycle [1][24][25] Industry Insights - The report discusses the significant growth in the technology sector, particularly in areas such as humanoid robots, consumer electronics, and new energy, where China is leading globally in patents, sales, and design standards [24][25] - The "科特估" system is noted for reshaping the valuation of high-tech companies in the capital market, providing more value to enterprises aligned with high-quality development and national industrial security [24][25] - The report anticipates that as AI applications become more prevalent, the technology industry will further drive demand recovery, leading to a clear upward trend in prices and corporate profits [1][24][25] Company Performance - 泰凌微 (TaiLing Micro) is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with adjusted revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.15 billion, 1.48 billion, and 1.88 billion yuan, respectively, and net profits of 220 million, 350 million, and 500 million yuan [8] - 骄成超声 (JiaoCheng Ultrasonic) has seen strong growth in its lithium battery and wiring harness businesses, with revised profit forecasts indicating a net profit of 150 million, 300 million, and 500 million yuan for 2025-2027 [8] - 零跑汽车 (Leap Motor) has adjusted its net profit forecast for 2025 to 880 million yuan, reflecting positive feedback on new vehicle models and strategic collaborations in the electric vehicle market [9]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index broke the high point of October 8, 2024, and stabilized above 3700 points, with a year-to-date increase of 10.29%, outperforming the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average [2] - The current market is characterized by a "slow bull" pattern, driven by a combination of macro policies, capital market policies, funding structure, and technological industry innovations, indicating a transition towards high-quality economic development [2][3] - The "KOT" valuation system has been recognized as a leader in developing new productive forces, with the technology sector becoming a primary focus for capital, evidenced by a 27.21% increase in the Sci-Tech Innovation Index year-to-date [3][26] Group 2 - Macro policies have been innovatively adjusted to support new productive forces, with structural tools being emphasized to stabilize the economy while promoting technological innovation and consumption upgrades [4][10] - The capital market has undergone significant reforms, including the introduction of the "KOT" valuation system, which aims to provide reasonable valuations for high-tech enterprises and enhance their funding support [5][13] - Long-term capital inflow has been facilitated by new policies, with the scale of equity ETFs surpassing 3 trillion yuan, indicating a strong influx of long-term institutional investors into the market [6][17] Group 3 - The Chinese technology industry is experiencing significant breakthroughs, with advancements in humanoid robots, consumer electronics, new energy, and communication sectors, positioning China as a global leader in technology patents and product sales [7][23] - The "KOT" system has led to a notable increase in the number of listed companies and their market capitalization, particularly in the "hard technology" sector, reflecting the effectiveness of the valuation system's restructuring [3][25] - The market is witnessing a positive cycle of liquidity and valuation improvements, with trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan, indicating a favorable market sentiment and the potential for a comprehensive bull market [8][35]

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint is that the "innovation bull market" in 2025 is driven by a positive cycle of capital pricing and industrial implementation under policy guidance, with macro policies anchoring industrial direction and capital markets facilitating value discovery [1] - The market liquidity and valuation have improved, with A-share trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan, indicating a positive trading structure and sentiment cycle [1] - The initial phase of the "innovation bull" is likely to extend towards financial sectors and technology industries, particularly in robotics, computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] Economic Outlook - The report anticipates that China's export growth may continue to exceed market expectations due to the dual easing of U.S. fiscal and monetary policies, suggesting resilience in external demand [2] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is highlighted, with predictions of two cuts in September and December, although there is caution regarding overly optimistic market pricing [2] Fixed Income Market - The fixed income market has shown a "desensitization" to fundamental data, with the yield on 10-year government bonds rising to 1.745% despite disappointing economic indicators [4] - The report notes that structural policy tools may replace total monetary policies as the main line of easing in the third quarter [4] Company Performance - 瑞芯微 (Rockchip) reported a significant revenue increase of 63.85% year-on-year in H1 2025, with a net profit growth of 190.61%, driven by strong performance in AIoT products [8] - 禾赛科技 (Hesai Technology) achieved a revenue increase of 53.9% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with a net profit growth of 161.2%, supported by strong demand for ADAS and robotics [9] - 道通科技 (Dautong Technology) reported a revenue increase of 27.3% year-on-year in H1 2025, driven by advancements in digital repair and energy solutions [10] Industry Trends - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the AI and robotics sectors, with companies like 禾赛科技 and 瑞芯微 leading in their respective fields [9][8] - The demand for 3D vision technology is highlighted as a key growth driver for 奥比中光 (Orbbec), with expected rapid revenue growth in the coming years [20] Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "buy" rating for several companies, including 瑞芯微, 禾赛科技, and 道通科技, based on their strong performance and growth prospects in innovative sectors [8][9][10]

Group 1 - The core narrative of the article emphasizes the acceleration of technological innovation and the pivotal role of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) in the current market trend, with a year-to-date increase of 27.21% as of August 15, significantly outperforming other major indices [1][2] - The STAR Market has become a hub for core technology innovation enterprises, with 589 listed companies and a total market capitalization exceeding 9 trillion yuan, where over 80% are from emerging industries such as new-generation information technology and biomedicine [2][3] - The "hard technology" attributes of STAR Market companies align with the current "KOT" valuation logic, indicating a systematic enhancement of China's technological innovation capabilities and a re-evaluation of the value of technology industries by the capital market [2][3] Group 2 - Recent reforms have enhanced the adaptability of the STAR Market for high-quality technology enterprises, including the "KOT Eight Articles" and the "National Nine Articles," which aim to improve the new stock pricing mechanism and raise the evaluation standards for technology attributes [3] - The STAR Market Index, launched at the beginning of the year, aims to comprehensively reflect the performance of the STAR Market, covering all non-ST stocks and employing a total market capitalization weighting method [4] - The top five sectors in the STAR Market Index include electronics (41.1%), pharmaceuticals (18.1%), computers (9.3%), machinery (8.9%), and power equipment (8.7%), indicating a strong focus on strategic emerging fields such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence [4]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy Innovations - The government has implemented innovative macroeconomic policies focusing on new productive forces to stabilize the economy while supporting structural optimization[2] - New "quasi-fiscal" financial tools emphasize structural optimization and cover areas such as technological innovation and consumption upgrades[2] - Monetary policy tools have been introduced to guide funds towards technological innovation, providing strong support for macroeconomic stability and reducing financing costs for the real economy[2] Group 2: Capital Market Policy Innovations - The "National Nine Articles" released in April 2024 initiated a round of capital market reforms, enhancing rules for listing, trading, and exit processes[3] - The "Science and Technology Valuation" system has been restructured to provide reasonable valuations for high-tech enterprises, aligning with high-quality development and national industrial security needs[3] Group 3: Funding Structure Innovations - A joint initiative by six ministries has led to a significant influx of long-term capital into the A-share market, with equity ETFs surpassing 3 trillion yuan in scale[4] - Long-term institutional investors have become key stabilizers in the market, with insurance funds increasing their equity investment limits to 40%[4] Group 4: Technological Industry Innovations - China leads globally in various sectors, including humanoid robots and new energy, with significant patent applications and product sales[5] - The digital economy's core industry added value reached 127.555 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 9.9% of GDP[30] Group 5: Market Performance and Trends - As of August 15, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 10.29% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average[13] - The Science and Technology Innovation Index has increased by 27.21% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which rose by 6.80%[7] Group 6: Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include corporate profit growth not meeting expectations and external demand declining unexpectedly[48]

Core Insights - The recent performance of the ChiNext 50 industry has shown divergence, with technology growth assets exhibiting higher elasticity during periods of liquidity easing [1] - As U.S. Treasury yields retreat from high levels, the success rate of trading domestic AI computing and "hard technology" has increased [1] - The relative PE of ChiNext to CSI 300 has risen from 4.84 to 4.92, and the relative PB has increased from 2.58 to 2.61, indicating a valuation recovery in the growth sector [1] Group 1 - The ChiNext 50 ETF managed by Guotai tracks the ChiNext 50 Index, which can experience daily fluctuations of up to 20% [1] - The ChiNext 50 Index, published by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, selects 50 representative companies from the ChiNext market based on market capitalization and liquidity [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of China's high-growth emerging enterprises, covering multiple sectors including information technology and healthcare, with a focus on growth style [1]

Group 1 - The recent policy changes, including new regulations for insurance capital entering the market, are expected to bring in trillions of yuan in incremental funds, positively impacting long-term market liquidity [3] - The introduction of the "Growth Layer" on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board lowers the listing threshold for unprofitable companies, potentially reshaping the valuation logic for technology stocks [3] - Notable stocks with consecutive gains include Guosheng Technology and Shangwei New Materials, driven by advancements in HJT batteries and perovskite technology, as well as strong performance in special materials due to AI computing demand [3][4] Group 2 - Huahong Technology's net profit is expected to increase over 30 times in the first half of the year, attributed to rising rare earth raw material prices and the expansion of its rare earth recycling business [4] - The stock of Guodian Nanzi saw a surge due to a projected net profit increase of 171%-225%, driven by increased orders in grid automation and the national push for high-power charging infrastructure [4] - New Times Da's stock performance improved following Haier's acquisition, which is anticipated to enhance its industrial robotics business through supply chain synergies and access to overseas channels [4] Group 3 - Companies like Huahong Technology and Guodian Nanzi are considered more reliable due to their profit growth stemming from core business operations rather than asset sales [5] - The focus on industries such as rare earths, robotics, and computing power is supported by both policy backing and industry trends, making them more sustainable compared to pure speculative plays [5] - Recommendations for investors include prioritizing stocks with substantial performance growth and long-term logic, avoiding high-volume stocks at peak levels, and leveraging policy benefits to identify opportunities in undervalued blue-chip stocks [5]