Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the rebar steel market is returning to fundamental logic, with both futures and spot prices experiencing declines as of September 1, with the main contract down 5% and spot prices in East China down 2.9% compared to early August [1] - The demand for rebar steel is expected to improve after September, entering the peak construction season, but the extent of this improvement will be a focal point for market speculation [2] - The inventory of rebar steel has increased for five consecutive weeks since hitting a low in late July, with a total increase of 848,000 tons, marking the first year-on-year growth in inventory this year [2] Group 2 - The futures market has seen a significant decline, with the main contract's discount to spot prices reaching 179 yuan/ton, leading to increased selling pressure in the spot market [3] - The supply of rebar steel is likely to increase initially and then decrease, with a temporary production restriction in North China expected to have a limited impact due to its short duration [4] - The profitability of steel mills remains relatively high, with over 60% of the 247 surveyed steel mills still profitable, but there is a risk of potential losses in the fourth quarter if supply increases and demand remains weak [4] Group 3 - Market focus may shift towards winter storage and outlook for next year, with expectations of monetary policy easing following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [5] - The short-term fundamentals are expected to remain weak, with seasonal demand likely falling short of expectations and supply anticipated to rise, suggesting further potential for price declines [5] - There is a possibility of price recovery in the fourth quarter due to policy support and potential production controls during the heating season [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "volatile" [6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17] Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the steel industry's steady - growth plan emphasizing crude steel reduction and the approaching military parade leading to production restrictions, the black building materials sector is still subject to short - term disturbances. After the military parade, with low inventory in the industrial chain and restocking demand, there is a driving force for price rebounds. However, weak terminal demand during the peak season may limit the upside space [1][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Industry - The steel industry's steady - growth plan emphasizes crude steel reduction, and the approaching military parade restricts production. This has a negative impact on the demand for furnace materials, causing the prices of coal, coke, and ore to decline during the day, which in turn drags down steel prices. At night, the sector remains under pressure. After the military parade, steel mills are expected to resume production, and with the pre - National Day restocking demand, the sector may rise [1] 2. Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month as expected [2][9] - Demand: Iron water production decreased slightly. As the military parade approaches, steel mills in Hebei will gradually enter maintenance, and iron water production is expected to decline, but the impact is limited. After the military parade, iron ore demand may return to a high level [2][9] - Inventory: This week, iron ore ports reduced inventory, the number of ships at berth increased, factory inventories decreased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The fundamentals are supportive, and the price is expected to fluctuate [2][9] - Scrap steel: The fundamentals of scrap steel have no prominent contradictions. The pressure on finished product prices has led to low EAF profits, but resources are still tight. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2][10] 3. Carbon Element - Coke: As the military parade approaches, coke production restrictions are stronger than those of steel mills. In the short term, the coke supply remains tight. Although price increases are difficult to implement, prices are supported before the military parade. After the military parade, the recovery of iron water production needs to be monitored [2][11] - Coking coal: Before the military parade, the coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the downward price space is expected to be limited [2][11] 4. Alloys - Manganese silicon: Currently, the inventory pressure of manganese silicon manufacturers is acceptable, and the cost side still supports prices in the short term. However, the future market supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and prices are under significant downward pressure in the medium - to - long term. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs [2][16] - Ferrosilicon: The current inventory pressure of ferrosilicon manufacturers is not large, and the cost side still supports prices in the short term. However, the future market supply - demand relationship will become looser, and the price center will tend to decline in the medium - to - long term. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of power costs in major production areas [2][17] 5. Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but policy expectations are strong, and raw material prices are high. After trading the delivery contradictions, the far - month contracts still offer a premium. In the medium - to - long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed. If prices return to fundamental trading, they are expected to decline with fluctuations [3][12][13] 6. Soda Ash - The oversupply situation of soda ash has not changed. After the decline in the futures market, spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will decline, driving capacity reduction [3][15] 7. Specific Product Analysis - Steel: The inventory is continuously accumulating, and the futures market is weak. Before and after the military parade, both supply and demand will be affected. In the short term, the futures market may continue to adjust weakly. After the military parade, the release of restocking demand during the peak season may support prices [8] - Iron ore: Shipments and arrivals increased, and port inventory decreased slightly. The demand is at a high level, and the supply and inventory are stable. The fundamentals are supportive, and the price is expected to fluctuate [9] - Scrap steel: The supply decreased, and the demand from both EAF and blast furnaces declined. The inventory decreased slightly, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10] - Coke: It is difficult to implement price increases, and the supply has tightened. Before the military parade, the price is supported, and after the military parade, the recovery of iron water production needs to be monitored [11] - Coking coal: The supply has tightened, and the market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to remain stable before the military parade [11] - Glass: The mid - stream sales pressure has squeezed the upstream production and sales. The fundamentals are weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and decline in the medium - to - long term [12][13] - Soda ash: The supply has been slightly disturbed, and the inventory has decreased rapidly. The oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and decline in the long term [15] - Manganese silicon: The black chain declined, and the futures price was weak. The short - term cost support remains, but the medium - to - long - term price has significant downward pressure [16] - Ferrosilicon: Market confidence is insufficient, and the futures price center has moved down. The short - term cost support remains, but the medium - to - long - term price center will tend to decline [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel - The steel industry shows strong supply - demand on the industrial side with continuous inventory reduction. Low inventory supports the market, and improved macro - sentiment is expected to repair the valuation. Attention should be paid to the impact of terminal restocking on spot prices. For the October contract, the pressure range for rebar is 3200 - 3250, and for hot - rolled coils, it is 3300 - 3400 [1]. Iron Ore - In the short - term, the valuation of iron ore is expected to be repaired, but in the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view is maintained. The high - level of molten iron production is approaching its peak, and the supply - demand pressure of iron ore will increase in the future [4]. Coke - The coke market is in a weak pattern. The spot market is slightly declining, and the futures market has a large hedging pressure. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke, and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel reduction and tariff negotiations [6]. Coking Coal - The coking coal market is in a situation of loose supply - demand. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal, and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel reduction and tariff negotiations [6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has been alleviated. The cost is relatively stable, and with positive macro - level news, the price is expected to rebound based on valuation repair [8]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese market is in a situation where production is decreasing, and the supply - demand gap is narrowing. With positive macro - level news, the price is expected to stabilize and rebound based on valuation repair [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions have different changes, with some rising and some falling. Futures contract prices also show fluctuations [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while some steel production costs increased. Profits in different regions and varieties also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron production increased by 0.2 to 245.6 tons, with a 0.1% increase. The production of five major steel products decreased by 9.5 tons to 874.2 tons, a 1.1% decrease. Rebar production decreased significantly by 4.2% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 29.0 tons to 1476.1 tons, a 2.0% increase. Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories also increased [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 27.8%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 12.9%. The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils also decreased significantly [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties decreased slightly, and the basis of the 09 - contract for different varieties increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 49.4%, while the 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads changed [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 2.5%, the global shipment volume decreased by 4.3%, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 0.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1%, the 45 - port daily average ore - discharging volume decreased by 5.0%, and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel production increased significantly [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.4%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 4.0%, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - Coke spot prices in different regions and futures contract prices showed fluctuations. The 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged. The coking profit increased significantly [6]. Supply - The daily average production of full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased slightly [6]. Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills increased slightly [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 1.8%, and the inventories of full - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports all decreased [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coking coal spot prices in different regions remained stable, and futures contract prices decreased. The basis increased, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged. The sample coal mine profit decreased slightly [6]. Supply - The raw coal and clean coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased slightly [6]. Demand - The demand for coking coal, represented by coke production, decreased slightly [6]. Inventory - The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased, while the inventories of full - sample coking plants and ports decreased [6]. Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 0.4%. Spot prices in different regions remained mostly stable [8]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia increased slightly, and the production profit increased slightly. The prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port increased [8]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production increased by 3.9%, and the operating rate increased by 5.8% [8]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand decreased by 1.1%, and the iron and steel - related demand indicators showed different changes [8]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 11.8% [8]. Silicomanganese Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the silicomanganese main contract decreased by 1.0%. Spot prices in different regions increased slightly [8]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia remained stable, and the production profit situation was not significantly changed [8]. Supply - Silicomanganese production decreased by 1.1%, and the operating rate decreased by 7.9% [8]. Demand - The silicomanganese demand decreased by 1.8%, and the iron and steel - related demand indicators showed different changes [8]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 13.9% [8].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **black metal industry**, focusing on **steel and iron ore** markets, along with macroeconomic factors affecting demand and supply dynamics. Key Points and Arguments Demand Trends - Rebar demand has decreased by **10%-15% year-on-year**, while hot-rolled coil apparent demand has declined by approximately **8% year-on-year**. This may reflect pessimistic export expectations or a resonance between reality and expectations, requiring further validation [1][2] - The market is concerned about whether iron and steel demand can maintain high levels. A decline in data could quickly reverse market confidence [1][3] Macroeconomic Factors - The decoupling between China and the U.S. remains unchanged, but tariff policies are influenced by political demands. The Trump administration may use tariffs to increase negotiation leverage and fiscal revenue, but reduced tax pressure could open negotiation space [1][5] - Domestic credit pulses are weak, indicating a fragile industrial cycle. Falling housing prices have created a negative feedback loop affecting corporate profits and cash flow, necessitating fiscal policy intervention [1][9] Real Estate Market Impact - The stability of second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities is crucial for the real estate chain. However, prices are still declining, indicating ongoing pressure in the real estate sector [1][11] Iron Ore Supply and Demand - There is a strong expectation of iron ore oversupply in early 2025, with forecasts suggesting a supply increase of **30-50 million tons**. However, adverse weather conditions in Australia have limited supply increases, and steel mills are maintaining high profitability [1][16] - If steel production reduction policies are implemented, it could negatively impact iron ore prices. Current statistics suggest that a **2% annual decrease** in crude steel production would require a daily reduction of **200,000 tons** of iron ore demand [1][16] Policy and Economic Outlook - The current fiscal policy focuses on accelerating existing projects rather than introducing new stimulus measures. This approach is deemed reasonable given the current economic data [1][10] - The impact of fiscal policies on black metal demand is primarily through the acceleration of special bonds and project funding, which may stimulate related industries [1][15] Market Sentiment and Future Expectations - The sentiment in the black metal market is cautious, with expectations of a systematic downturn in iron and steel production during the second and third quarters, accompanied by slight production cuts [1][4][38] - The overall market is not inclined to take long positions due to a lack of upward driving factors and ongoing uncertainties in trade policies [1][37] Export Dynamics - Domestic steel exports remain strong due to cost advantages, particularly in coking coal. However, high export levels may suppress price increases, necessitating a strategy of price competition [1][26] Inventory and Pricing - Iron ore inventories are currently high, and while some non-mainstream mines have reduced production, overall supply remains above expectations. Price performance is not anticipated to improve significantly in the context of ongoing oversupply [1][17] Conclusion - The black metal industry is facing a complex interplay of declining demand, macroeconomic pressures, and policy responses. The outlook for the second and third quarters suggests a cautious approach, with potential for further adjustments based on evolving market conditions and external factors [1][38]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market currently has strong real - world fundamentals and rising macro - optimistic expectations, which support the lower limit of finished products. However, the weak demand expectation and the tendency of new orders to decline limit the upward space of the futures market. Without unexpected positive news, the futures market may fluctuate in the near term [3]. - The iron ore market is trading on the expectation of future demand rather than the current situation of strong supply and demand. There is an expectation of a significant decline in demand in mid - to late May, and the weakening of exports may intensify industrial chain contradictions [17]. - The coal - coke market is in a short - term situation of strong supply and demand. In the long - term, due to coal supply guarantee and crude steel reduction expectations, coking coal may face long - term price decline, and the upward resistance of coke futures is relatively large [34]. - The ferroalloy market still has a high - inventory pattern. Although the pressure of high supply of silicon manganese has been alleviated, supply still exceeds demand compared with weak downstream demand. The production of silicon iron has increased slightly this week, and the large increase in warehouse receipts suppresses the rise of the futures price [54]. - The soda ash market is expected to have more maintenance in May, increasing supply disturbances. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation, and although the current inventory accumulation is less than expected, the supply disturbances may increase market fluctuations [70]. - The glass market is facing over - supply pressure. The futures price may continue to decline to force new cold repairs. The key variables are the delay of ignition and new cold repairs, as well as the improvement of demand [96]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3126, 3048, and 3098 respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3239, 3200, and 3217 respectively [4]. - The spot prices of rebar in different regions such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou were between 3180 - 3344 yuan/ton on May 7, 2025 [9]. Market Analysis - From a macro - industrial perspective, Sino - US trade negotiations seem to have new progress, and the macro - optimistic expectation has risen. The real - world fundamentals are strong, but the future demand expectation is weak, and the market may face pressure from weakening demand and falling raw material costs [3]. Iron Ore Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 681, 768, and 708 respectively. The prices of different types of iron ore in Rizhao, such as PB powder, were also provided [18]. Market Analysis - The current supply and demand of iron ore are both strong, but the market is trading on future expectations. There is an expectation of a significant decline in demand in mid - to late May, and the negative feedback pressure on steel mills to reduce production is increasing [17]. Coal - Coke Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the coking coal and coke warehouse receipt costs and basis in different regions and contracts were provided, as well as the coking profit on the futures market [35]. Market Analysis - In the short - term, the supply and demand of coal - coke are both strong. In the long - term, coking coal may face long - term price decline, and the upward resistance of coke futures is relatively large [34]. Ferroalloy Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the silicon iron and silicon manganese basis, futures spreads, and spot prices in different regions were provided, as well as the prices of related raw materials and the number of warehouse receipts [55][56]. Market Analysis - The ferroalloy market still has a high - inventory pattern. The supply of silicon manganese still exceeds demand, and the increase in silicon iron production and warehouse receipts suppresses the futures price [54]. Soda Ash Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the soda ash futures prices, spreads, and spot prices in different regions were provided [71][72]. Market Analysis - In May, there are expected to be more maintenance activities, increasing supply disturbances. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation, and although the current inventory accumulation is less than expected, the supply disturbances may increase market fluctuations [70]. Glass Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the glass futures prices, spreads, and basis in different regions were provided, as well as the daily sales data in different regions [98][99]. Market Analysis - The glass market is facing over - supply pressure. The futures price may continue to decline to force new cold repairs. The key variables are the delay of ignition and new cold repairs, as well as the improvement of demand [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel - Market sentiment is recovering, with weekly data showing a slight increase in the output of five major steel products and continued inventory reduction. The current situation is tight, but the outlook is weak. Low inventory supports steel prices, and if demand expectations improve, low inventory can provide upward momentum for absolute prices. The recommended trading range for rebar is 3100 - 3300 yuan/ton, and for hot-rolled coils is 3200 - 3400 yuan/ton. It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral operations and focus on long steel and short raw material arbitrage operations [1]. Iron Ore - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated, and the price is still under pressure in the short term. Administrative production cuts still have an impact, but the form and volume of production cuts are undetermined. This week, the daily average pig iron output continued to increase slightly, reaching a high level in the same period of history. The finished products downstream continued to reduce inventory, and steel mills' profits improved, leading to continued production resumption. The future of high production levels depends on the terminal demand. Inventory increased before the festival, and the port inventory slightly accumulated. The iron ore price is expected to continue to be under pressure [3]. Coke - The second round of spot price increases for coke before the festival faced resistance and is currently in a negotiation stage. Considering the weakening of coking coal, the second round of price increases may not be realized. After the festival, the ex-factory price of coke will remain stable in the short term, and the port trading price will be slightly weak. The supply side is increasing production due to good orders, and the demand side is supported by high pig iron production. However, the weak coking coal, overcapacity, and lack of pricing power of coke enterprises are the main reasons for the weak decline of coke prices. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of long hot-rolled coils and short coke and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel production cuts [5]. Coking Coal - After the festival, the supply-demand situation remains loose in the short term. The supply side includes continued production resumption of domestic mines and reduced imports of Mongolian coal. The demand side shows that downstream users are replenishing inventory, but mainly on a need-to basis. The inventory of mines is high, and the port inventory is decreasing. High supply, high imports, and high inventory are the main reasons for the decline in coal prices. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of long hot-rolled coils and short coking coal and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel production cuts [5]. Ferrosilicon - The main contract of ferrosilicon futures fell significantly, mainly due to the reduction of the settlement electricity price in Ningxia in April. The supply pressure has been relieved after previous production cuts, and the factory inventory has stopped increasing and started to decline, but the overall inventory is still at a medium to high level. The demand side shows an increase in pig iron production, and the non-steel demand has improved seasonally. The export growth in March is considered unsustainable. The cost side is stable, but the electricity price needs further monitoring. It is expected that the ferrosilicon price will be slightly weak in the short term [6]. Ferromanganese - The main contract of ferromanganese continued to decline, mainly due to the reduction of the settlement electricity price in Ningxia in April. The production reduction continued during the holiday, and the output increased slightly. The demand side is supported by high pig iron production, but the sustainability depends on the terminal demand. The manganese ore market is under pressure, with a decline in global shipments and high arrival volumes. It is expected that the ferromanganese price will fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices showed different trends in different regions and contracts. The basis of some contracts changed [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and some steel products decreased, and the profit of some steel products also decreased [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output and the output of five major steel products increased, with a significant increase in the electric furnace output of rebar [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products, rebar, and hot-rolled coils decreased [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The trading volume of building materials decreased, but the apparent demand of five major steel products, rebar, and hot-rolled coils increased [1]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot increased slightly, and the basis and spreads of some contracts changed [3]. - **Supply**: The arrival volume at 45 ports, global shipments, and national monthly imports decreased [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output, 45-port daily average ore removal volume, national monthly pig iron and crude steel production increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The 45-port inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increased [3]. Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke contracts decreased, and the basis and spreads changed. The second round of spot price increases faced resistance [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of coking plants and steel mills increased [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output increased, and the inventory and available days of steel mills' coke increased [5]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased slightly, the coking plant inventory decreased, and the port inventory decreased [5]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal contracts decreased, and the basis and spreads changed. The market coal auction was cold after a short recovery [5]. - **Supply**: The production of domestic mines increased, and the import of Mongolian coal decreased [5]. - **Demand**: The coke output increased slightly, and the downstream users replenished inventory [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of mines was high, the port inventory decreased, and the inventory of downstream users was at a low level [5]. Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the main contract of ferrosilicon decreased, and the spot prices in some regions decreased. The basis and spreads changed [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in some regions decreased, and the production profit in some regions changed [6]. - **Supply**: The output of ferrosilicon remained stable, and the production enterprise's operating rate decreased slightly [6]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand remained stable, the pig iron output increased, and the steel output increased [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased, and the average available days of downstream users decreased [6]. Ferromanganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the main contract of ferromanganese decreased, and the spot prices remained stable. The basis and spreads changed [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in some regions decreased slightly, and the production profit remained stable [6]. - **Supply**: The production of ferromanganese decreased slightly, and the operating rate decreased [6]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand increased slightly, and the procurement volume of steel mills remained stable [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased, and the average available days increased [6]. - **Manganese Ore**: The global manganese ore shipment decreased, the arrival volume increased, and the port inventory increased [6].

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing fluctuations in prices and inventory levels, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and the impact of production cuts on future pricing trends [6]. Supply - Global iron ore shipments decreased by 1.37 million tons to 30.505 million tons, with Australian and Brazilian shipments totaling 25.404 million tons, down by 2.179 million tons [4]. - Australian shipments were 17.692 million tons, a decrease of 2.26 million tons, with shipments to China at 15.184 million tons, down by 1.289 million tons [4]. - Brazilian shipments increased by 0.08 million tons to 7.712 million tons [4]. Demand - Daily average pig iron production reached 2.4542 million tons, an increase of 10,700 tons month-on-month [3]. - The blast furnace operating rate was 84.33%, unchanged from the previous period [3]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnace ironmaking was 92%, up by 0.4 percentage points [3]. - Steel mill profit margins were 56.28%, down by 1.3 percentage points [3]. Inventory - As of April 30, total inventory at 45 ports was 1,430.248 million tons, an increase of 414,800 tons [5]. - Steel mills' imported ore inventory rose by 2.6202 million tons to 93.3505 million tons, indicating significant pre-holiday stockpiling [5]. Market Outlook - The iron ore market is under pressure due to administrative production cuts, with uncertainty regarding the extent and form of these cuts [6]. - The average daily iron production continues to rise, reaching historical highs, while downstream material inventory is being reduced [6]. - The future of iron ore prices will depend on terminal demand, with potential pressure from increased overseas shipments expected in May and June [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **Coke**: ★☆★, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor operability on the current trading floor [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆★, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor operability on the current trading floor [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★★☆, indicating a clear downward trend and the market is evolving [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★★☆, indicating a clear downward trend and the market is evolving [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market of the black metal industry is complex, with different products showing different trends. The short - term market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and inventory levels. Some products are expected to be volatile, while others are expected to show a weakening trend [1][2][5] Summary by Product Steel - The steel market is in a weak and volatile state. The apparent demand for thread steel has declined month - on - month, and the recovery lacks sustainability. The supply - demand of hot - rolled coils has stabilized. The iron - making water output has reached a high level, but the resumption of production will slow down significantly later. The manufacturing PMI has declined, and the real estate market is still weak. The market will be mainly in a weak and volatile state in the short term [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is slightly weaker. The global shipment has increased month - on - month, and the domestic arrival volume has rebounded. The port inventory has started to accumulate. Although the short - term demand is still high, the frequent news of crude steel production restrictions has dragged down the market from the expected level. It is expected to be volatile, with short - term price support and pressure from the decline of iron - making water output in the future [2] Coke - The coke price rebounded slightly at the end of the session due to position reduction. The second round of price increase was rejected, and the inventory is still at a high level. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream iron - making water output has increased significantly. Attention should be paid to the evolution of steel exports [3] Coking Coal - The coking coal price rebounded slightly at the end of the session due to position reduction. The production of coking coal mines is gradually recovering, but the production has decreased slightly this week. The spot auction market has weakened, and the inventory pressure at the production end is high. It is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [5] Silicon Manganese - The price of silicon manganese has reached a new low this year. The port inventory of manganese ore has been increasing. The supply of silicon manganese has decreased, but the overall inventory has increased significantly, suppressing the price. It is recommended to short on rebounds [6] Silicon Iron - The price of the 2509 contract of silicon iron has reached a new low this year. The iron - making water output has increased, but the export demand and secondary demand are generally weak. The supply has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the current trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel [1] - Coke: ★☆★, with an unclear trend [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★, with an unclear trend [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★☆, representing a clear short - term downward trend, and the market is evolving [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, suggesting a short - term downward trend but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall metal market is in a complex situation with various influencing factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and downstream industry conditions. Different metal products have different trends, and short - term price movements are affected by multiple factors. Attention should be paid to factors like demand intensity in peak seasons, policy implementation, and iron - water production changes [1][2] Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel - The steel market is under pressure and has declined. Thread steel's apparent demand has decreased month - on - month, lacking sustained recovery. Its production is basically flat, and inventory continues to decline with a relatively low absolute value. Hot - rolled coil's supply - demand is stable, and inventory continues to decline. Iron - water production has reached a high level, but future production resumption will slow down due to falling steel - making profits. The downstream industries of steel, such as infrastructure and manufacturing, have improved, while the real - estate sector is still weak. The Sino - US tariff policy will continue to be debated, and the expectation of crude - steel reduction has cooled rapidly. The market will mainly show weak oscillations in the short term, and attention should be paid to position control before holidays [1] Iron Ore - The iron - ore market is oscillating. The global shipment volume has increased month - on - month and is stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume has rebounded and is at a relatively strong level in the same period, and port inventory has started to accumulate. In terms of demand, last week's iron - water production increased significantly, and short - term steel - mill profitability is acceptable, so iron - water production is expected to remain high. There were no super - expected policies in important domestic meetings, and the impact of production - restriction news on the market has weakened. The iron - ore price is expected to oscillate, with certain short - term support, but attention should be paid to the pressure of falling iron - water production in the future [2] Coke - The coke price is oscillating downward. The second round of price increases by coking enterprises has been rejected, and the bullish sentiment has declined. Daily production has continued to increase slightly. The overall coke inventory has not been effectively reduced and remains at a high level, and there is no purchasing enthusiasm in the trade market. The carbon - element supply is still abundant, and downstream iron - water production has continued to increase significantly, with good steel - billet export orders. Attention should be paid to the evolution of steel exports [3] Coking Coal - The coking - coal price is oscillating downward. The production of coking - coal mines is gradually recovering, but this week's production has still slightly decreased due to some mines. The spot auction market has weakened significantly, and the transaction price has loosened. Terminal inventory is still high, and there is no additional restocking demand during the May Day holiday. The total coking - coal inventory is basically flat, the production - end inventory pressure remains high, and downstream coking plants and steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement. The market price is under pressure from inventory and tariff fluctuations, and it is expected to show a weak oscillation [4] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price has reached a new low this year due to the wavering tariff policy. The national manganese - ore port inventory has been continuously increasing. According to Steel Union data, the inventory at Tianjin Port increased by more than 300,000 tons last week. The spot and forward - looking prices of manganese ore have both declined. Although iron - water production has increased significantly, the supply of silicomanganese has continued to decline, and the overall inventory level has increased significantly, suppressing the price. It is recommended to short on rebounds [5] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price is oscillating downward due to the wavering tariff policy. Iron - water production has increased significantly. Export demand is generally in a downward trend month - on - month, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has decreased, and secondary demand is average, resulting in a marginal decline in overall demand. The supply of ferrosilicon has continued to decline, the market transaction level is average, and the on - balance - sheet inventory has continued to increase. Its fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report Affected by the domestic economy and global trade frictions, steel demand is weak. Although there is a certain restocking demand before the May Day holiday, concerns about the future still exist. Although domestic policies are temporarily supportive but not aggressive, the probability of subsequent efforts still exists. The industry supply and demand has entered a seasonal weakening state. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the post - holiday rebound ends [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On April 29, black - series commodity futures except iron ore fell across the board. The rebar closed at 3,100 yuan/ton, down 1.21%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3,210 yuan/ton, down 1.26%; the iron ore main contract closed at 709 yuan/ton, up 0.28%; coking coal and coke continued to decline [1]. Market Analysis - International trade: On April 24, South Korea imposed a four - month temporary anti - dumping duty on hot - rolled carbon or alloy steel medium and heavy plates originating from China, with a tax rate of 27.91 - 38.02% until August 23, 2025. Brazil made an affirmative preliminary anti - dumping ruling on color - coated sheets originating from China and India but did not recommend imposing a temporary anti - dumping duty. Canada launched an anti - dumping investigation into carbon steel wires and alloy steel wires originating from or imported from China, India and other countries. Multiple countries' increase in import tariffs on Chinese steel and anti - dumping investigations have impacted the "price - for - volume" model of net exports, and manufacturing demand has been revised down due to tariff adjustments [1]. - Domestic policy: After the recent Politburo meeting, no super - expected policies were released, and China will enter a policy window period before the May Day holiday [1]. - Supply side: Last week, the profitability rate of 247 long - process steel mills reached 57.58%, a five - month high. Steel mills remained actively producing. The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.77% to 84.33%, the iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 1.45% to 91.6% month - on - month, and the daily average pig iron output increased by 42,300 tons to 2.4435 million tons, the highest since October 2023, with the year - on - year increase expanding to 6.83%. The expectation of crude steel reduction has re - emerged. Some short - process steel mills are expected to cut production due to losses. Recently, long - process steel mills have been converting to producing billets with better profits, and the output of rebar in some steel mills has been diverted, resulting in a tight supply of certain specifications, and the short - term supply pressure has been alleviated, improving the supply - demand pattern [1]. Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Investors are advised to adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to adopt a high - level consolidation strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength relationship between coking coal and coke [1].