点击蓝字，关注我们 分析师认为，鲍威尔的鸽派言论将支撑亚洲股市和货币市场。 本周，亚洲股市有望迎来强劲开局，亚洲货币也可能因此获得支撑。华尔街分析师们还指出，亚 洲股市与货币有望进一步走强。此前，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上的讲话表明，美 联储最快将于 9 月的下一次政策会议上采取降息举措。上周五，美国股市大幅上涨，使得道琼斯 工业平均指数创下今年来的新高。与此同时，新兴市场货币结束了连续六天的跌势，因为鲍威尔 的言论导致美元大幅贬值。 以下是分析师和策略师们的观点： 瑞穗证券高级市场经济学家Yusuke Matsuo表示："日本央行正在考虑加息，而美联储则在考虑降 息，因此这两家央行在政策利率方向上极有可能会背道而驰。 外汇市场预计将逐渐朝着日元升值 和美元贬值的方向发展，这反映出市场预期日本央行今年将再进行一次加息，而美联储将进行两 次降息。 " Asia Decoded首席经济学家Priyanka Kishore指出：" 美元走软可能会暂时提振亚洲货币，因为鲍威 尔表示可能会在 9 月降息。 但除非美联储承诺开启更大幅度的宽松政策，否则任何涨势都可能只 是暂时的。" Vantage Market ...

与此同时，在宽松预期升温、贸易局势缓和等因素的驱动下，标普、纳指已屡创历史新高。 而历史上， 在1985年"广场协议"签署后，美国市场同样经历了一段"美元大跌、美股大涨"的相似历程。 动图由豆包AI「照片动起来」生成 美元贬值、美股新高、美联储主席换届…… 四十年前的历史正在重现，"黑色星期一"会卷土重来吗？ 今年以来，随着特朗普重返白宫，美元汇率持续走弱， 美元指数累计下跌近10% ，美元兑主要货币汇率一度跌至近三年低点。 报告显示，在"广场协议"签署后的17个月内，美元对日元下跌36.5%，对德国马克、法国法郎和意大利里拉等主要欧洲货币下跌30.8%至36.6%。尽管各国实体 经济被迫进行重大调整，但美国股价却如同今日一般持续冲上历史新高。 这种看似矛盾的繁荣，很大程度上得益于当时市场对通胀并未失控的判断，尤其是当时的美联储主席保罗·沃克尔（Paul Volcker），其卓越的抗通胀声誉为市 场提供了信心支撑。 然而，这种乐观情绪在两年后随着美联储领导层的更迭和政策应对的迟疑而迅速崩塌， 最终在1987年10月以"黑色星期一"的股灾收场。 如今，在美联储主席同样面临"换届"、政策利率路径前景趋于复杂之际， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The major indices of the two markets had a strong consolidation on Tuesday to repair technical indicators, and the trading volume remained high. Hedge funds' net buying of Chinese stocks last week reached the highest level in seven weeks, making China the market with the largest capital inflow on the platform since August. The year 2025 has seen a "quantitative boom" in the quantitative circle. Continuous capital inflows will drive the stock market to maintain an upward trend [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the major indices of the two markets had a strong consolidation, showing mixed trends to repair technical indicators. The trading volume was 2.58 trillion yuan, still relatively high. The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,242 points, up 5 points or 0.07%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6,655 points, down 12 points or -0.19%; the SSE 300 Index closed at 4,223 points, down 16 points or -0.38%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2,812 points, down 26 points or -0.93%. Among industry and theme ETFs, those with the highest gains were Communication ETF, Gem Artificial Intelligence ETF Cathay, 5G ETF, Cloud 50 ETF, and Robot 50 ETF, while those with the highest losses were Tianhong Innovative Drug ETF, Leading Military Industry ETF, and Southern Securities ETF. Among the sector indices of the two markets, those with the highest gains were consumer electronics, home appliance parts, communication equipment, motor manufacturing, and industrial Internet index, while those with the highest losses were medical services, glass fiber, insurance, aviation equipment, and securities index. The settlement funds of stock index futures for the CSI 1000, SSE 300, CSI 500, and SSE 50 indices had net outflows of 5.5 billion, 5.1 billion, 1.8 billion, and 0.9 billion yuan respectively [1]. Important Information - The State Council meeting emphasized continuously stimulating consumption potential, systematically clearing restrictive measures in the consumption field, and accelerating the cultivation and expansion of new growth points such as service consumption and new - type consumption. It also aimed to increase effective investment, give play to the leading and driving role of major projects, and actively promote private investment [1]. - Data from Goldman Sachs' Prime Brokerage (GS PB) showed that hedge funds' net buying of Chinese stocks last week reached the highest level in seven weeks, making China the market with the largest capital inflow on the platform since August [1]. - In just eight months of 2025, the quantitative circle has witnessed a "quantitative boom" comparable to 2019 and even surpassing 2020. Many quantitative institutions have quietly enjoyed a "silent bull market" with substantial floating profits [1]. - According to data compiled by Zishitang, among 53 quantitative private equity funds' CSI 500 enhanced products (with institutional scale all above 1 billion yuan, including 26 "10 - billion - scale giants"), the average return in 2025 was about 28.4%, while the CSI 500 Index only rose 10.4% during the same period [1]. - Zhaopin data showed that in the second quarter, the number of recruitment positions in the humanoid robot field increased by 398.1% year - on - year, far leading the growth rate. Technical talents proficient in algorithms and mechanical structure design have become highly sought - after in the job market [1]. - Apollo's chief economist said that consumer spending usually accounts for 70% of the US GDP, and private consumption is usually the main driving force for US GDP growth. However, in the first half of the year, the contribution of data center investment to US GDP growth was the same as that of consumer spending. The contribution of consumer spending has been declining, while that of data center construction has been rising [1]. - The drag effect of US trade tariffs is becoming increasingly apparent in Europe. In June, the exports of the 27 EU countries to the US decreased by 10% year - on - year to just over 40 billion euros (about 46.8 billion US dollars), the lowest level in two years [2]. - JPMorgan Chase said that multiple alternative inflation indicators showed that inflation not only failed to continue to decline, but the sticky part of core inflation was accelerating again, and a considerable part of its persistence was not related to tariffs. Unless the economy falls into recession, the persistent inflation will not support the Fed to take more aggressive easing policies [2]. - Goldman Sachs said that among the S&P 500 component stocks that have announced their earnings reports, 60% of the companies' earnings per share exceeded expectations by more than one standard deviation, mainly due to companies' multiple strategies such as supplier negotiations, supply chain adjustments, cost cuts, and passing on price increases to consumers, and the weakening of the US dollar provided additional impetus for corporate sales growth [2]. Market Logic - The major indices of the two markets had a strong consolidation on Tuesday to repair technical indicators. Hedge funds' net buying of Chinese stocks last week reached the highest level in seven weeks, making China the market with the largest capital inflow on the platform since August. The Shanghai Composite Index hit a nearly 10 - year high on Monday, and the total A - share market capitalization of A - share companies exceeded 100 trillion yuan, a record high. The year 2025 has seen a "quantitative boom" in the quantitative circle, and many quantitative institutions have enjoyed a "silent bull market" with floating profits [2]. Future Market Outlook - The major indices of the two markets had a strong consolidation on Tuesday to repair technical indicators, and the trading volume remained high. The State Council meeting emphasized measures to stimulate consumption and investment. Hedge funds' net buying of Chinese stocks reached a seven - week high. Goldman Sachs believes that the Chinese humanoid robot industry is iterating products at an amazing speed with a clearer commercialization path. The Fed may use currency depreciation to deal with debt, and the probability of a September interest rate cut by the Fed has risen to 100%. The "de - Americanization" of global financial asset reallocation is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A - shares. The strong consolidation of major indices after continuous rises is a normal technical trend, and continuous capital inflows will drive the stock market to maintain an upward trend [2]. Trading Strategy - Stock index futures directional trading: The strong consolidation of major indices after continuous rises is a normal technical trend, and continuous capital inflows will drive the stock market to maintain an upward trend [2]. - Stock index options trading: With continuous capital inflows, investors can choose to buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on growth - type stock indices [2].

中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛（曾任国家外汇管理局国际收支司司长）表示，人民币兑美元存在进一步升值突破7元的可能性。推动人民币走升的情形包括美国经济疲软、美联储降息以及市场对美元信心普遍下降。另外，还有一种可能推升人民币的情形，就是中美能够像第二阶段经贸协议，这可能提升市场信心。管涛称，如果假设的情形发生，人民币可能会升破7。管涛还反驳有关中国刻意让汇率贬值来支持出口的说法，并称人民币的多边汇率的走势“是结果，不是目标。” ...

新华财经北京8月19日电 在经历4月初美国关税政策引发的金融市场剧烈震荡后，全球投资者针对美元 贬值风险采取的防御性对冲策略出现显著松动。据道富银行最新数据显示，当前全球股票投资者用于对 冲美元下行风险的头寸比例已回落至接近今年4月初的水平，标志着此前因关税冲击形成的对冲潮出现 阶段性退却。 今年4月初，美国政府加征关税的政策冲击波及资本市场，导致美股与美元指数同步大幅下滑。彼时， 国际投资者普遍担忧美元汇率进一步走软，纷纷通过衍生品工具建立对冲头寸以规避风险。然而，根据 道富银行编制的最新数据，反映市场对冲强度的核心指标——对冲比率目前已降至21.6%，较5月份下 降约2个百分点，基本回归至4月初关税冲击前的低位水平。 尽管美元近期表现强势，华尔街外汇策略师们仍坚持看空美元的中长期前景。他们认为，美元当前的反 弹缺乏可持续性，其长期走弱的趋势未改。最新公布的疲弱就业数据、美联储货币政策独立性遭受的政 治压力，以及特朗普政府突遭罢免劳工统计局局长等事件，共同加剧了市场对美国宏观经济数据真实性 的疑虑。 美国银行外汇策略主管霍华德·杜（Howard Du）警告称，若美联储在通胀抬头背景下被迫降息，美元将 面临" ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is undergoing a significant paradigm shift due to intertwined U.S. debt pressures and expectations of policy changes, with a focus on currency devaluation as a core strategy to address debt challenges [1][3] Monetary Policy and Market Trends - The discussion around unconventional tools like Yield Curve Control (YCC) has resurfaced, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy [1] - Since 2025, 88 central banks globally have implemented interest rate cuts, marking the fastest easing pace since 2020, which has driven asset prices, including stocks, credit, gold, and cryptocurrencies, to new highs [1] - The S&P 500 index's price-to-book ratio has reached a record 5.3 times, surpassing the peak during the dot-com bubble, while its forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 22.5 times, in the 95th percentile since 1988 [9] Investment Strategies - Hartnett's central argument is that "Disruption = Debasement," suggesting that discussions around the Federal Reserve's independence and higher inflation targets indicate a policy direction aimed at lowering the dollar's value to facilitate financing of U.S. debt and deficits [3][4] - Investors are advised to increase allocations to gold and cryptocurrencies as a hedge against a potential long-term bear market for the dollar [3][4] Dollar Outlook - The U.S. government's goal of achieving economic prosperity and asset bubbles by 2025-2026 is seen as a clear investment theme for shorting the dollar, with expectations that the dollar index (DXY) will fall below 90 [4] Credit Market Insights - The U.S. investment-grade A+ credit spread is currently at 64 basis points, in the 98th percentile over the past 30 years, indicating a strong preference for equities over bonds among investors [11] Commodities and Emerging Markets - In the context of dollar devaluation, gold, cryptocurrencies, commodities, and emerging markets are expected to be the biggest beneficiaries as investors seek tools to hedge against inflation and currency depreciation [16] - A survey indicated that only 9% of fund managers have exposure to cryptocurrencies, with an average allocation of 0.3% of assets under management (AUM), while 48% hold gold with an allocation of 2.2% of AUM [16] Energy Market Perspective - Hartnett presents a contrarian view on energy prices, suggesting that current oil and natural gas prices have already priced in expectations of peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with a long-term trend pointing towards lower energy prices [18][20]

Group 1: Global Market Overview - Global stock markets continued to rise, while major commodity futures such as oil, gold, copper, and aluminum experienced declines[1] - The dollar index decreased by 0.42% to 97.8538, with non-US currencies appreciating[1] - The performance of major indices ranked from the highest to lowest: ChiNext Index > Sci-Tech 50 > Shenzhen Composite Index > Nikkei 225 > CSI 300 Index > CAC40 > Dow Jones > Shanghai Composite Index > Hang Seng Index > Hang Seng Tech Index > S&P 500 > DAX30 > NASDAQ > FTSE 100[1] Group 2: Domestic Market Insights - The average daily trading volume in the domestic equity market was 20,780 billion yuan, up from 16,748 billion yuan[2] - Among the 31 primary industries, 22 saw gains, with the top performers being communication (+7.66%), electronics (+7.02%), and non-bank financials (+6.48%)[2] - Conversely, the banking sector declined by 3.19%, steel by 2.04%, and textiles by 1.37%[2] Group 3: Interest Rates and Currency Trends - The 1Y and 10Y Chinese government bond yields rose by 1.59 basis points to 1.3665% and 5.74 basis points to 1.7465%, respectively[1] - The 2Y US Treasury yield fell by 1 basis point to 3.75%, while the 10Y yield increased by 6 basis points to 4.33%[1] - The Chinese yuan remained stable against the dollar, with the offshore yuan closing at 7.1891, reflecting a stable market expectation[2] Group 4: Economic Indicators and Expectations - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.9% month-on-month in July, marking the highest increase since June 2022[2] - The market anticipates a narrowing of the expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, influenced by strong PPI and consumer spending data[2] - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting is expected to provide insights into the Fed's monetary policy direction amidst ongoing inflation concerns[2]

Group 1 - The core argument presented by Michael Hartnett is that "Disruption = Debasement," indicating that discussions around the Federal Reserve's independence, higher inflation targets, and price controls are leading to a policy shift aimed at depreciating the dollar to manage the U.S. debt and deficit [2][12] - The expectation of a policy shift suggests that the attractiveness of holding government bonds is declining, while the stock and credit markets, which are already at high valuations, face risks [2][8] - Hartnett anticipates that the U.S. dollar index (DXY) will fall below 90 as the government seeks economic prosperity and asset bubbles by 2025-2026, making shorting the dollar a clear investment theme [2][12] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index's price-to-book ratio has reached a record 5.3 times, surpassing the peak during the dot-com bubble, while its forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 22.5 times, in the 95th percentile since 1988 [8] - The investment-grade A+ credit spread in the U.S. is only 64 basis points, placing it in the 98th percentile over the past 30 years, indicating a strong preference for equities over bonds [10][12] - Hartnett suggests that in the context of dollar depreciation, assets like gold, cryptocurrencies, commodities, and emerging markets will be the biggest beneficiaries as investors seek to hedge against inflation and currency devaluation [14] Group 3 - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting is anticipated to provide dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, but Hartnett warns that this could lead to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario, as market sentiment is already overly optimistic [12][14] - The average maturity of U.S. government debt is 5-6 years, and to stabilize annual interest payments of $1.2 trillion, the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield needs to drop below 3.1%, providing strong motivation for the Fed to adopt easing policies [12][14] - Hartnett's long-term view on energy markets suggests that current oil and natural gas prices have already priced in expectations of peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with potential for further price declines if U.S.-Russia cooperation develops in Arctic resource extraction [16][18]

8月15日（周五），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜因美元走软小幅上涨，市场观望美俄首脑会晤结果。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月15日，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫称，俄美双方的谈判全程或需至少6 至7小时。其中普京与特朗普的一对一闭门会谈，双方助理将在场。 他强调，俄罗斯方面希望普京与特朗普在阿拉斯加的会晤能够取得成果。 俄罗斯总统普京和美国总统特朗普定于当地时间8月15日在美国阿拉斯加州安克雷奇举行会晤，这将是 俄美领导人2021年6月以来的首次面对面会晤。 伦敦时间8月15日17:00(北京时间8月16日00:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨7.5美元，或0.08%，收报每吨 9,773.5美元。 随着数据密集的一周接近尾声，美元走软支撑市场。 美元贬值使得以美元计价的商品对使用其他货币的买家来说价格降低。 上海期货交易所周五的数据显示，本周铜库存再次上升，过去两周增加了20%，达到86,361吨，为两个 月来的最高水平。 美国COMEX期铜上涨0.4%，至每磅4.50美元，使COMEX期铜对LME期铜的溢价达到每吨137美元，或 1.4%。 花旗（Citi）将未来三个月的铜价预估从之前的每吨8,800美元上调至 ...

Strategy - The AH premium has significantly decreased, dropping from a high of 144% in early April to 123% by the end of July, marking a new low since 2020, currently at 125% [5] - Notable companies like CATL and Hansoh Pharma are trading at significant discounts of 31% and 15% respectively compared to their Hong Kong counterparts [5] - The article discusses the pricing logic of the AH premium and its potential as a timing indicator for choosing between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [5] Macroeconomy - The U.S. economy is expected to recover as the worst phase may have passed, despite ongoing policy shocks affecting the recovery process [7] - The U.S. Treasury is projected to issue approximately $1 trillion in new debt in Q3, leading to tighter liquidity and potential pressure on risk assets [7] - A long-term phase of fiscal dominance and monetary cooperation is anticipated, with a trend of U.S. dollar depreciation and increased opportunities in non-U.S. markets [7] - The expectation of a weaker dollar may benefit emerging markets, including A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [7] Strategy - The A-share market's margin financing balance has surpassed 2 trillion yuan for the first time since July 2015, reaching 20,002.6 million yuan [9] - Compared to 2015, the current market has a larger scale, lower proportion of leveraged funds, and a more stable upward trend in margin financing [9] - The article suggests that the current market structure may resemble that of 2013, but with more aggressive policy support and improved liquidity [9] Strategy - The article suggests that the current A-share market resembles an "enhanced version of 2013," with small-cap and growth styles outperforming [13] - It recommends focusing on sectors with high growth and performance validation, such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, military, and non-ferrous metals [13] - The brokerage and insurance sectors are highlighted for their earnings elasticity and potential benefits from increased retail investment [13]