股市冲高回落，股债跷跷板效应明显，尾盘数据显示债基延续净赎回，利率微幅上行。 早盘债市延续昨日偏谨慎情绪，10Y国债利率基本平开在1.657%后围绕1.66%震荡。上午股市表现强 势、涨超1%，利率最高上至1.67%。午后股市回落、基本收平，利率震荡下至1.66%附近。尾盘或对下 周一的一级发行与传闻的地产会议有所担忧，利率回升至1.666%（六六六）。 市场没有什么不可能，再完美的预测 体系都是不完美的，因为预测本身就不完美，因为市场最大的魔 力就在于它的不可预测性。 ——笔记哥《分析》 【笔记20250711— 免费过山车，包吐包尖叫（-上午股市涨超1%+午后股市回落-债基延续净赎回+资金 面均衡偏松=微上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率微幅上行。 央行公开市场开展847亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有340亿元逆回购到期，净投放507亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.34%附近，DR007在1.47%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 07. 11) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "Macro Market Weekly Report" [2] - Report Date: July 11, 2025 - Author: Liao Hongbin - Investment Consulting License Number: Z0020723 - Contact Phone: 4008 - 8787 - 66 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The A - share market showed positive performance this week, with major indices rising collectively, and small and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. The bond market weakened due to the strengthening of the equity market, but the bullish foundation of the bond market remains supported in the short term. The commodity market faces pressure from factors such as US tariff policies and domestic deflation, but supply reduction expectations may provide some support. The dollar rebounded slightly, and the euro - dollar exchange rate was affected by factors such as tariff negotiations and inflation [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions Stocks - A - share major indices rose collectively this week, with the ChiNext Index rising over 2%. The four stock index futures also rose collectively. The market's reaction to Trump's new tariff announcement was dull, and the release of June inflation data and positive corporate earnings pre - announcements were positive for the market. Market trading activity increased slightly compared to last week. Allocation suggestion: cautious waiting and seeing [6]. Bonds - Bond futures weakened this week. The recent strength of the equity market suppressed bond market sentiment, but the weak economic fundamentals, balanced and loose liquidity, and low inflation provide support for the bond market. Allocation suggestion: cautious waiting and seeing [6]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index fell by 0.33%, while the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index rose by 1.02%. US tariff policies and domestic deflation pressure suppress commodity demand, but supply reduction expectations due to domestic over - capacity reduction policies may support prices. Allocation suggestion: buy on dips [7][8]. Foreign Exchange - The euro - dollar exchange rate declined. The dollar rebounded slightly due to strong non - farm data and the passage of the tax - cut bill, while the euro area faces complex tariff situations and inflation trends. Allocation suggestion: cautious waiting and seeing [7]. 3.2 Important News and Events Domestic News - China's retirees' basic pensions achieved a "21 - year consecutive increase", with an overall adjustment level of 2% of the 2024 monthly per - capita basic pension. The "14th Five - Year Plan" economic increment is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, and this year's economic aggregate is expected to reach about 140 trillion yuan. The State Council issued policies to support stable employment, and Premier Li Qiang met with the WTO Director - General [16]. International News - The Fed's June meeting minutes showed a dovish signal, and the probability of a rate cut increased slightly. Trump announced new tariff policies on multiple countries, and many countries responded, with some expressing regret and others threatening counter - measures [12][18]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - China's June CPI annual rate was 0.1%, ending four consecutive months of decline, and the PPI annual rate was - 3.6%. In the US, the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending July 5 was 227,000. In the UK, the May three - month GDP monthly rate was 0.5%, and the manufacturing and industrial output monthly rates were negative. Germany's May industrial output monthly rate was 1.2%, and France's June CPI monthly rate was 0.4%. Japan's May trade deficit was 522.336 billion yen [13][19]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data will be released in multiple countries, including China's June export and import annual rates in US dollars, social consumer goods retail sales, and industrial added value; the US's June CPI, PPI, and retail sales; the UK's June CPI and unemployment rate; and Japan's June core CPI [84].

在当前的债市环境下，由谢志华管理的民生加银鑫享债券凭借较好的业绩表现和严格的风险控制，成为 投资者关注的对象。该基金主要投资于利率债、高等级信用债及可转债，通过多元资产配置增强收益。 银河证券数据显示，截至2025年6月30日，民生加银鑫享债券A(003382)近三年同类(普通债基A类-可投 转债)排名Top 1(1/217), 近益年同类排名也表现亮眼，位列1%(3/257)。 民生加银基金固定收益部总监谢志华认为，6月债券市场窄幅震荡。基本面和政策面对债市仍有支撑， 但收益率下行想象空间不足。权益市场走势良好，无风险收益率相对较低，政策呵护等因素叠加下，股 市易上难下。转债市场跟随走强，固收类资金对转债关注度提升，转债市场本身有供需缺口，结构性机 会相较纯债可能更多，依然相对看好。 对于未来债市走势，谢志华表示可能仍以窄幅震荡为主，关注理财配置情况及可能的股债跷跷板效应影 响，注重票息策略。股票市场依然看好，关注前期调整较充分的科技成长方向，及处于相对低位的非银 等板块。转债依然以自下而上择券为主，注重品种轮动和高低切换。 今年以来，中国债市经历了从调整到修复的转变，市场逻辑和资金环境的变化推动了这一演变 ...

投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年7月10日 FF FREET F 量剑三(Z0019556) 数据来源: Wind、Mysteel、SMM、彭博、广发期货研究所 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确也及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下。报告内容仅供参考， 报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价,投资者据此投资,风险自担。 欢迎关注微信公众号 主力合约 品种 点评 操作建议 板块 来到新一轮美国贸易政策谈判窗口期,指数已经突 IF2509 破短期震荡区间上沿,中枢继续上移,但测试关键 IH2509 A股测试关键位置,上方遇阻 股指 IC2507 位置附近需谨慎操作。考虑买入低执行价看跌期权 后卖出高执行价看跌期权,做牛市价差策略。 IM2509 T2509 T2509短期波动区间或在108.8-109.2。单边策 TF2509 国债 资金利率筑底叠加股债跷跷板效应,期债短期或呈窄幅震荡 略上建议适当逢调整多配,接近前高注意止盈,关 TS2509 注资金利率走向。曲线策略上继续推荐关注做陡。 我感 TL ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the correlation between stocks and bonds, exploring whether the "see - stock - do - bond" approach will become a new trading theme in the bond market. It analyzes the stock - bond pattern this year, historical "stock - bond seesaw" situations, and provides an outlook for the bond market. Currently, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect may be more prominent, and the bond market may face certain disturbances, but the liquidity environment is still relatively favorable [1][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Year's Stock - Bond Pattern Deduction - In the first quarter, it was a "tight money + wide credit" environment, with a typical stock - bond "seesaw" effect. The stock market was strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 6.8% and the CSI 300 rising 6.0% from January 6 to March 17. The bond market was in shock consolidation, with short - end yields rising significantly [11][13][14]. - In the second quarter, it shifted to a "wide money + wide credit" environment, showing a stock - bond double - bull pattern. The stock market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 11.2% and the CSI 300 rising 9.7% from April 1 to June 30. The bond market had a recovery, with short - end yields falling significantly [11][18][19]. 3.2 Historical Stock - Bond "Seesaw" - **2016.10 - 2018.01: Economic Recovery + Monetary Tightening, Bullish Stocks and Bearish Bonds** - The stock market rose 15%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 134BP. The economic fundamentals were good, and the central bank tightened monetary policy, leading to a tight money supply [24][27][31]. - **2020.04 - 2020.12: Economic Repair + Monetary Neutrality, Bullish Stocks and Bearish Bonds** - The stock market rose 27%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 79BP. The economy recovered, and the central bank's monetary policy returned to normal. The supply pressure of government bonds increased, tightening the money supply [32][34][39]. - **2022.11 - 2023.02: Policy Intensification + Expectation Change, Strong Stocks and Weak Bonds** - The stock market rose 11%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 27BP. Policy adjustments boosted the expectation of economic recovery, and the bond market was affected by the negative feedback of wealth management redemptions [40][41][45]. - **2024.09 - 2024.10: Policy Tailwind + Institutional Profit - Taking, Strong Stocks and Weak Bonds** - The stock market rose 28%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 15BP. A series of policies boosted economic recovery expectations, and the central bank's monetary policy "good news was exhausted." Institutional profit - taking increased the bond market adjustment risk [47][49][55]. 3.3 Bond Market Outlook: See - Stock - Do - Bond? - The current bond market trading is crowded, while the stock's cost - performance is relatively high. The central bank's overall further easing policy may be limited in the short term, and the money supply may maintain a "low - volatility and rigid" state [5]. - The "stock - bond seesaw" effect may be more obvious, and the logic of "see - stock - do - bond" may disturb the bond market sentiment. It is advisable to moderately participate in curve steepening trading, with a strategy of "defending and squeezing spreads at the short - to - medium end + allocating on dips at the long end" [59][60][65].

2025 年 07 月 09 日 证券研究报告 | 银行理财周报 跨季后资金面转松，银行理财产品收益回升 银行理财周度跟踪（2025.6.30-2025.7.6） 分析师：蔡梦苑 分析师登记编码：S0890521120001 电话：021-20321004 邮箱：caimengyuan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890525040001 电话：021-20321070 邮箱：zhoujiahui@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 收 益 承 压 — 银 行 理 财 周 度 跟 踪 （2025.6.23-2025.6.29）》2025-07-01 2、《债市期限分化，银行理财产品收益普 遍 回 落 — 银 行 理 财 周 度 跟 踪 （2025.6.16-2025.6.22）》2025-06-24 3、《资金面宽松，银行理财产品收益维持 回 升 — 银 行 理 财 周 度 跟 踪 （2025.6.9-2025.6.15）》2025-06-19 4、《央行或重启国债买入，银行理财产品 收 益 回 升 — 银 行 理 财 周 度 跟 踪 （2025.6.2-2025.6.8 ...

行业研究 银行业理财研究 银行理财月度跟踪 相关研究： | 1. | 《2025中期策略-价值重估仍 | | --- | --- | | 在进行时》 | 2025.07.02 | 证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 09 日 湘财证券研究所 行业评级：增持(维持) 分析师：郭怡萍 证书编号：S0500523080002 Tel：(8621) 50295327 Email：guoyp@xcsc.com 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： 理财市场概况 由于债市波动拖累理财净值，以及权益市场回暖分流部分投资资金，一季 度银行理财规模较年初有所下降。二季度，随着债市行情好转，市场资金 逐步回流，且存款利率下行驱动储蓄资金流入理财市场，理财规模增长预 计呈现修复态势。 理财产品收益率 现金管理类理财产品收益率趋于下行。根据 Wind 数据统计，6 月，现金管 理类理财产品 7 日年化收益率均值为 1.49%，较上月下行 4 BP。同期，货 币基金 7 日年化收益率均值为 1.34%，较上月下行 2 BP。货币政策保持偏 宽基调，包括同业存单、存款等标的资产收益率均出现不同程度下滑，5 月新一轮降息之后，随着资金利率 ...

分析师：蔡梦苑 登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：周佳卉 登记编号：S0890525040001 投资要点 监管和行业动态： 1、中国证券报记者6月30日获悉，国家外汇管理局日前已向部分符合条件的 合格境内机构投资者（QDII）发放投资额度合计30.8亿美元。2、普益标准数据显示，截至6月 末，银行理财市场存续规模31.22万亿元，较年初增加5.22%。在季末回表压力与估值整改"半年 考"的双重考验下，当前净值型理财存续规模坚守31万亿关口，较5月规模变化不大。 同业创新动态： 招银理财创新费率模式，推出浮动管理费理财产品。工银理财参与IFBH港股 IPO基石投资，继三花智控后再下一城。交银理财首款慈善理财产品成功实现捐赠。建信理财成 功战略投资今年首单购物中心公募REITs 。 收益率表现： 上 周 （ 2025/6/30-2025/7/6 ， 下 同 ） 现 金 管 理 类 产 品 近 7 日 年 化 收 益 率 录 得 1.48%，环比上行5BP；同期货币型基金近7日年化收益率报1.27%，环比下行5BP。现金管理类 产品与货币基金的收益差环比上行10BP。上周各期限纯固收和固收+产品年化 ...

一方面的方目解 投资咨询业务资格: 班监许可【2011】1292号 2025年7月9日 操作建议 来到新一轮美国贸易政策谈判窗口期,指数已经突 破短期震荡区间上沿,中枢继续上移,考虑买入低 执行价看跌期权同时卖出高执行价看跌期权,做牛 市价差策略。 T2509短期波动区间或在108.8-109.2。单边策 略上建议适当逢调整多配,接近前高注意止盈,关 注资金利率走向。曲线策略上继续推荐关注做陡。 | | 国债 | TF2509 TS2509 | 资金利率筑底叠加股债跷跷板效应,期债短期或呈窄幅震荡 | 略上建议适当逢调整多配,接近前高注意止盈,关 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金融 | | TL2509 | | 注资金利率走向。曲线策略上继续推荐关注做陡。 | | | | | | 短期关注美国通胀和关税影响,金价维持在3300 | | | 贵金属 | AU2508 | 市场消化部分美国关税影响 美元走强黄金回落 | 美元(765元)附近波动,卖出790以上虚值黄金 | | | | AG2508 | | 看涨期权;白银走势受到黄金和有色工业品影响反 | | | 集运指数 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 7 月 6 日 周度金融市场跟踪 财经委会议"反内卷"，钢铁建材领涨 A 股；债 券市场收益率整体小幅震荡下行 （ 6 月 30 日 -7 月 4 日） 股票方面，本周 A 股震荡上涨，全周累计看，沪深 300 上涨 1.5%，中证 2000 上涨 0.6%。本周港股走势弱于 A 股，恒生指数下跌 1.5%，恒生科技指数下跌 2.3%。行业方面，本周钢铁、建筑材料和银行领涨，计算机、非银金融和美容 护理领跌。周内看，周一（6 月 30 日）上午，6 月制造业 PMI 指数发布，连续 2 个月回升。当天市场超 4000 只股票上涨。周二（7 月 1 日）市场震荡上涨。 周二盘后中央财经委第六次会议新闻发布，会议强调依法依规治理企业低价无 序竞争。受此影响，周三（7 月 2 日）钢铁、煤炭和建筑材料等传统周期类行业 领涨 A 股。周四（7 月 3 日）盘前美国解除对中国芯片设计类软件出口限制新 闻发出，当天市场超 3200 家公司上涨，创业板指数上涨 1.9%。周五（7 月 4 日） 市场有所分化，以沪深 300 为代表的大盘股上涨，但以中证 2000 为代 ...