伴随着上证指数冲上4000点，公募基金规模也再创历史新高。 11月28日，中国基金业协会发布的最新一期公募基金市场数据显示，截至今年10月底，公募基金总规模达到36.96万亿元，连续第七个月创出历史新高。 从环比变化情况看，10月份公募基金份额、规模双双上涨。相比于9月末，公募基金总份额增加1.08%，总规模增加0.59%。 从细分类型上看，投资者申购股票、QDII及货币型基金热情最高，份额均实现不同程度增长，债券、混合及封闭式基金遭遇净赎回。 公募基金总规模逼近37万亿元 基金业协会数据显示，截至2025年10月底，我国境内公募基金管理机构共165家，其中基金管理公司150家，取得公募资格的资产管理机构15家。以上机构 管理的公募基金资产净值合计36.96万亿元。 | 类别 | 基金数量(只) | 份额(亿份) | 净值(亿元) | 基金数量(只) | 份额(亿份) | 净值(亿元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (2025/10/31) | (2025/10/31) | (2025/10/31) | (2025/9/30) | (202 ...

中国基金报记者 若晖 伴随着上证指数冲上 4000 点，公募基金规模也再创历史新高。 11 月 28 日，中国基金业协会发布的最新一期公募基金市场数据显示，截至今年 10 月底， 公募基金总规模达到 36.96 万亿元，连续第七个月创出历史新高。 从环比变化情况看， 10 月份公募基金份额、规模双双上涨。相比于 9 月末，公募基金总份 额增加 1.08% ，总规模增加 0.59% 。 从细分类型上看，投资者申购股票、 QDII 及货币型基金热情最高，份额均实现不同程度增 长，债券、混合及封闭式基金遭遇净赎回。 公募基金总规模逼近 37 万亿元 基金业协会数据显示，截至 2025 年 10 月底，我国境内公募基金管理机构共 165 家，其中 基金管理公司 150 家，取得公募资格的资产管理机构 15 家。以上机构管理的公募基金资产 净值合计 36.96 万亿元。 【导读】公募基金总规模逼近 37 万亿元，连续 7 个月创出历史新高 | 类别 | 基金数量(只) | 份额(亿份) | 净值(亿元) | 基金数量(只) | 份额(亿份) | 净值(亿元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

股债跷跷板效应不存在了？ 近期，国内债市持续承压，长债利率接连上行。11月27日，国债期货收盘多数下跌，10年期国债收益率 在1.84%附近向上震荡。 综合机构观点，近期债市承压一方面是因为政策上降息预期降温，另一方面是市场对"固收+"基金赎 回、公募基金销售新规落地存在担忧。与此同时，万科债券展期风波给市场情绪带来冲击，主要利空信 用债，但赎回压力下利率债也会受到波及。 临近年末，机构对震荡市的判断更为明显，降准降息预期仍是主要干扰因素。受访人士认为，综合考虑 内外部环境和地方债供给情况，岁末年初降准降息仍有空间。 10年期国债收益率回升至1.84% 不同于三季度较为明显的股债跷跷板效应，近期即使股市出现连续下跌，债市依旧表现偏弱。以10年期 国债品种为例，进入11月以来，"25附息国债16"收益率从1.79%一路上行至1.84%左右；30年期国债活 跃券收益率则从2.14%来到2.2%附近。 对此，财通证券固收分析师孙彬彬认为，从宏观逻辑上，债市的增量利好有限、货币政策方向不明确， 而前期利率债补涨结束，主流券种收益率下行有阻力，债市情绪整体较弱。从机构行为角度，他认为一 方面是因为保险大量赎回"固收+" ...

人民财讯11月26日电，长城基金相关人士认为，市场短期内迎来重要数据的真空期，"股债跷跷板"效应 相对减弱，判断当前债市虽然短期内缺乏明确方向，或以震荡为主，但从中期角度看，预期资金面有望 保持整体宽松，债市总体或还是顺风期。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a significant decline in the issuance of new public funds, with a 32.35% decrease in the number of new funds launched compared to the previous week, and an increase in the average subscription period to 23.65 days [1][3] - The total number of new funds launched this week is 23, with 12 being equity products, which is 52.17% of the total, marking a rare occurrence of being below 60% [3][4] - The bond fund issuance has shown a counter-trend recovery, with 7 new bond funds launched, maintaining the peak level of the past 11 weeks [3] Group 2 - The FOF (Fund of Funds) category has remained active, with 3 new FOF funds launched this week, marking the 8th consecutive week of new fund issuance, and the total number of new FOF funds this year has reached 76, more than double the total from last year [3][4] - The recent cooling in the fund issuance market is primarily attributed to the weak performance of the equity market, which has significantly dampened investor enthusiasm for equity assets [3][4] - Market volatility has weakened the risk appetite of investors, leading to a decrease in the willingness of public fund institutions to launch new equity products [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The outlook for stock index futures is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [8][9][10] - The outlook for stock index options is "oscillating" [9] - The outlook for treasury bond futures is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [10][11] 2. Core Views of the Report - The decline of the Shanghai Composite Index has slowed down, and the hedging force has taken profit. The market is waiting for further catalysts to rise. It is necessary to observe policy signals and the sustainability of the main line [3][9] - The sentiment in the stock index options market has improved with reduced volatility. Attention should be paid to the lower support level. For those with stock positions, continue the covered call strategy, and for those without positions, consider selling put options after confirming the support [4][9] - Treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank's operations have maintained the balance of the short - term capital market. Although the bond market direction is unclear, it is expected to remain oscillating with a slight upward bias in the future [5][10][11] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - The current month's basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM closed at - 12.85, - 6.16, - 41.37, and - 61.21 points respectively, with changes of - 40.44, - 20.91, - 98.36, and - 123.71 points compared to the previous trading day [8] - The inter - month spreads (current month - next month) of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 15.8, 2.8, 50, and 65.4 points respectively, with环比 changes of - 37, - 21.4, - 54.4, and - 46.6 points [8] - The positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by - 7338, - 5627, - 12741, and - 21593 lots respectively [8] - The Shanghai Composite Index opened higher and oscillated on Monday, and the market stopped falling. The hedging sentiment eased. The decline of US technology stocks slowed down, reducing the domestic liquidity pressure. High - beta sectors led the rebound, and the short - selling profit - taking in the futures market promoted the convergence of the basis discount [3][9] - The secondary upward movement of the market still awaits event or main - line signals. Tactically, continue the dumbbell configuration in the short - term and observe the window for layout switching. The operation suggestion is to combine the dividend ETF with long positions in IM [3][9] Stock Index Options - The underlying market continued the defensive sentiment at the opening but stabilized in the afternoon. The CSI 1000 rose 1.26%. The trading volume in the options market was 8344 million yuan, a 46.10% decrease from the previous day. The implied volatility index decreased by an average of 1.53%. The short - term defensive behavior in the market weakened, and there was a new trend of selling options entering the market. Multiple varieties' position PCRs hit the bottom [4][9] - For those with stock positions, continue the covered call strategy to increase returns. For those without positions, considering the high skewness level of each variety, sell put options after confirming the lower support [4][9] Treasury Bond Futures - The trading volume of T, TF, TS, and TL in the current quarter was 79246, 46495, 23207, and 64907 lots respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 23755, - 17953, - 6065, and - 32915 lots. The positions were 68863, 42749, 11765, and 47308 lots respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 31002, - 12913, - 10325, and - 12009 lots [10] - The current - quarter to next - quarter spreads of T, TF, TS, and TL were 0.170, - 0.105, 0.042, and 0.180 yuan respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 0.020, - 0.055, - 0.008, and - 0.020 yuan [10] - The cross - variety spreads of TF*2 - T, TS*2 - TF, TS*4 - T, and T*3 - TL in the current quarter were 103.275, 99.030, 301.335, and 209.755 yuan respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 0.005, - 0.035, - 0.075, and 0.035 yuan [10] - The current - quarter basis of T, TF, TS, and TL was 0.023, - 0.022, - 0.009, and 0.115 yuan respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 0.064, - 0.050, 0.000, and - 0.049 yuan [10] - The central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operation had a net investment of 5.57 billion yuan, and the MLF operation had a net investment of 10 billion yuan. The capital market remained balanced. The stock - bond seesaw effect was evident, but the bond market direction is unclear due to differences in expectations for loose monetary policy and the undetermined fund fee regulations. It is expected that the bond market will remain oscillating with a slight upward bias [5][10][11] - For trend strategies, expect the market to oscillate with a slight upward bias. For hedging strategies, pay attention to long - position substitution at high basis levels. For basis strategies, focus on positive arbitrage opportunities and basis widening. For curve strategies, appropriately pay attention to curve steepening [11] 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic data to be released this week includes US PPI, retail sales, GDP, PCE price index, China's industrial enterprise profits, and the EU's economic sentiment index [12] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - As of the end of October, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. The installed capacity of solar power and wind power increased significantly. The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased compared to the previous year [13] - Affected by the decline in international oil prices, domestic gasoline and diesel prices were lowered on November 24 [13] - On November 25, the central bank carried out a 1 - year MLF operation of 1 trillion yuan with a net investment of 10 billion yuan [13]

Market Overview - The bond market maintained a volatile trend last week, with the 1-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.96 basis points to 1.40%, while the 10-year yield slightly increased to 1.82%, and the 30-year yield rose by 0.95 basis points to 2.16% [2][4] - The overall bond market continued its oscillation, with short-term bonds performing better than long-term ones, and the expected "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds did not materialize due to the weak stock market [4] - Short-term and medium-term momentum in the bond market is insufficient, and disturbances are expected to rise due to government debt payments and the maturity of a large number of open market operations [4] Public Fund Market Dynamics - E Fund's Ruiyi Ying'an FOF raised over 5.8 billion, marking the largest fundraising for a new fund in the fourth quarter, and is part of the招商银行 "TREE Long-term Profit Plan" [6] - The focus of these funds is primarily on low to medium-risk multi-asset products, indicating a trend towards conservative investment strategies in the public fund market [6] Fund Index Performance Tracking - The Money Enhanced Index rose by 0.02% last week, with a cumulative return of 4.32% since inception [3] - The Short-term Bond Fund Preferred Index also increased by 0.02%, with a cumulative return of 4.50% since inception [3] - The Medium to Long-term Bond Fund Preferred Index rose by 0.03%, achieving a cumulative return of 6.85% since inception [3] - Conversely, the Low Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Preferred Index fell by 0.53%, with a cumulative return of 4.23% since inception [3] - The High Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Preferred Index decreased by 1.13%, with a cumulative return of 6.89% since inception [3] - The REITs Fund Preferred Index dropped by 1.17%, but has a cumulative return of 32.24% since inception [3]

股指或有所修复，债市或 震荡运行 2025-11-24 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 金融期货策略建议 目 录 01 重点数据跟踪 02 01 金融期货策略建议 p 国债走势回顾：国债期货收盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.31%报115.570元，10年期主力合约跌 0.04%报108.430元，5年期主力合约跌0.06%报105.855元，2年期主力合约持平于102.460元。 p 核心观点：从市场影响来看，在经历前一阶段的国债买卖操作后，收益率下行最为流畅的阶段已基本结束， 市场当前步入冷静观望与区间震荡格局。短期交易逻辑仍将围绕消息面扰动、关键经济数据发布以及基金赎 回费率调整等政策预期展开；而更具确定性的中长期交易窗口，则需静待十二月中央经济工作会议所传递的 明确政策信号予以定调。股债跷跷板效应的影响有所走弱，这也显示收益率整体来到相对低位、而利差挖掘 行情过半后，投资者心态仍趋谨慎。国债或震荡运行。 p 技术分析：MACD指标显示T主力合约或震荡运行。 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 会卖债补流动性吗？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 股债跷跷板效应作为一种常见的股债比价方法被债市投资者熟知。今年 11 月以来上证综指明 显下行，但 10 年期国债价格却整体震荡甚至也跟跌。背后原因是当前权益虽然出现调整，但 投资者对权益市场中长期依然偏乐观，当权益调整时"固收+"基金可能面临较大净值回撤，这 类基金被赎回时会倾向于选择卖债补流动性，从而导致债券被抛售。我们认为这种情况不会持 续，后续随着降息预期渐起及年底配置行情到来，特别是如果权益继续震荡调整，债市收益率 或迎来新一轮下行行情，我们继续维持含税 10 年期国债收益率下行至 1.70%-1.75%的判断。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 会卖债补流动性吗？ [Table_Summary2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent phenomenon of simultaneous declines in both the stock and bond markets is primarily attributed to the bond market absorbing some of the redemption pressure and deleveraging demands caused by the stock market's pullback, with speculative funds in TL contracts further amplifying this volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bond market's motivation to go long has not increased due to the stock market's pullback, as the current environment is characterized by low odds and ongoing concerns about potential new fund fee regulations [1]. - The stock market's decline may have triggered a chain reaction among multi-asset funds, leading the bond market to bear some selling pressure and deleveraging demands, evidenced by low divergence indices among brokers and funds [1]. - TL contracts have a high proportion of speculative funds, which tend to engage in short-term trading rather than long-term allocation, making them more susceptible to market sentiment and cyclical trading behaviors [2]. Group 2: Historical Context - Historical patterns indicate that the phenomenon of "simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds" with "greater declines in futures than in cash bonds" has occurred previously, specifically in late October 2023 and mid-March 2024, typically lasting no more than 10 days before a synchronized recovery in both markets [2].