文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 有朋友问，「固收+」品种，收益和风险有啥特征，适 合哪些朋友投资呢？ • 「固收」的部分： 通常以低风险的债券类资产为 主，主要用来做防守。 • 「+」的部分： 通常会增加股票、可转债等风险和收益更高的品种，用来提升收益，这部分做进攻。 下面就来分析下，这类品种的收益和风险特征。 收益和风险居中 我们可以来看两个典型的「固收+」类品种——二级债基、偏债混合基金的收益表现，以及和纯债基金的对比。 从如下对比走势图，可以一目了然地看到， 「固收+」 类品种的长期收益，要明显高于纯债基金的收益。 相应的，「固收+」的波动风险也要比纯债基金要大一些。 以二级债基指数为例，在2004年- 2025年11月24日 ，二十年左右的时间里， 之前文章 （点击查看介绍） 中介绍过 ，「固收+」， 主要由两部分组成： • 年化收益率约为7.77%，远高于同期纯债基金指数的4.33%； • 最大回撤约为-12.02%，出现在2015年"股灾"期间，这个回撤幅度远低于股票型基金，并且之后很快就修复了。 可以看到，「固收+」品种的收益和风险水平都是居中的。 相比纯债基金、存款、理财等传统固收类品 ...

近日，蓝鲸新闻记者专访了华创证券研究所副所长、首席宏观分析师张瑜。张瑜长期从事国内外宏观经济、大类资产配置、人民币汇率及金融 市场等方面研究，屡屡提出鲜明的市场观点，连续多年获得新财富最佳宏观分析师称号，在宏观分析领域颇具影响力。今年10月的总理座谈会 上，张瑜应邀发言，发挥专业特长，为国家宏观经济工作建言献策。 图片来源：视觉中国 蓝鲸新闻11月18日讯 （记者 李丹萍 胡劼）全方位扩大内需是推动我国经济持续回升向好、实现高质量发展的必然选择，放眼2026年，哪些措 施能促进消费的有效提振？面对外部冲击，我国外贸展现出强大韧性，但外需整体放缓，如何看待外贸出口形势？资本浪潮涌动，全球视野下 的中国资产正经历一场价值重估。坚定看好中国资产的投资价值，又需要重点关注哪些主线，遵循怎样的逻辑？ 蓝鲸新闻：今年前三季度的经济数据已经出来，对全年经济形势基本定调，市场普遍认为GDP5%的增长目标预期可实现。您有观点提出"经 济循环最差的时候正在过去"，应该如何理解，是否经济周期拐点将近？ 张瑜：我们提出经济循环最差的时候正在过去，是基于三年来第一次观察到经济领先指标的全部向上，意味着我们在这个位置上，对经济循环 有了 ...

截至11月6日收盘，上证指数站上4000点，收于4007.76点。11月7日，上证指数持续在4000点附近震 荡。4000点作为A股重要心理关口，在当前市场行情下，股债如何配置？ 业内人士分析认为，当前市场估值已从低估修复至合理区间，股债"跷跷板"效应下，如何在把握牛市机 遇的同时对冲风险，成为投资者面临的核心课题。多家基金机构认为，短期市场可能出现结构性调整， 但中长期向好逻辑未改，均衡配置与策略优化将是应对市场变化的关键。随着指数站上新高，市场驱动 力与潜在挑战并存，投资者需重新审视股债资产配置策略，在波动中寻找平衡，在机遇中管理风险。 4000点上方驱动力与挑战并存 上证指数突破4000点是多重利好因素累积的结果。 银叶资本方面向《中国经营报》记者分析指出，A股市场自2024年9月24日以后运行逻辑和发展环境发 生了关键变化，"924"以来国家出台了一系列稳增长、稳股市、稳预期的政策组合拳，大力推动高水平 科技自立自强发展，托住了经济基本盘，推动和吸引了各路资金进入股市。且美联储继续降息的预期仍 在，全球宽松的流动性环境仍是股市走强的基础条件。中美元首在韩国会谈，就双方经贸关系达成了一 系列共识，中美经 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial enterprise profits are recovering at an accelerated pace, with the cumulative year - on - year growth of profits of industrial enterprises above designated size significantly increasing. The profit growth rate in September continued to be high, indicating an accelerated recovery of corporate profitability [4]. - Structurally, the year - on - year total profits of the three major sectors have all increased compared to the previous period, and the equipment manufacturing industry has provided strong support. Profits of enterprises of different types and scales have improved [5][6]. - In the bond market, it showed an independent trend on the day of the report. The central bank will resume open - market treasury bond trading. In the context of economic expectation correction, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise [7][8]. 3. Section Summaries Industrial Enterprise Profit Situation - **Overall Profit Growth**: From January to September, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.2% year - on - year, 2.3 percentage points higher than that from January to August, reaching the highest cumulative growth rate since August 2024. In September, the profits increased by 21.6% year - on - year, 1.2 percentage points higher than in August [4]. - **Factor Analysis**: From January to September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year, remaining the same as from January to August; the PPI of all industrial products decreased by 2.8% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points; the operating income profit margin decreased by 0.19 percentage points year - on - year, with the decline recovering by 1.68 percentage points. Stable volume, slightly rising prices, and recovering profit margins led to a significant increase in the cumulative profits of industrial enterprises above designated size [5]. Structural Analysis - **By Sector**: From January to September, the total profits of the mining industry decreased by 29.3% year - on - year (previously - 30.6%), the manufacturing industry increased by 9.9% (previously + 7.4%), and the public utilities increased by 10.3% (previously + 9.4%). The profit decline of the mining industry narrowed by 1.3 percentage points, the manufacturing industry increased by 2.5 percentage points, and the public utilities increased by 0.9 percentage points. The profits of the equipment manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 9.4%, 6.2 percentage points higher than the average level of all industrial enterprises above designated size, driving the profit growth of all industrial enterprises above designated size by 3.4 percentage points [5]. - **By Enterprise Nature**: From January to September, the profits of state - owned enterprises decreased by 0.3% year - on - year (previously - 1.7%), joint - stock enterprises increased by 2.8% (previously + 1.1%), foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan - invested enterprises increased by 4.9% (previously + 0.9%), and private enterprises increased by 5.1% (previously + 3.3%). The profit growth of private enterprises was 1.9 percentage points higher than the average level of all industrial enterprises above designated size, and 1.8 percentage points faster than from January to August. The profits of large, medium, and small enterprises all improved [6]. - **By Industrial Chain Position**: From January to September, the cumulative profit of upstream raw material mining accounted for 11.9% of the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size (previously 12.1%), the middle - stream material manufacturing accounted for 15.8% (previously 15.6%), the downstream equipment manufacturing accounted for 38.1% (previously 37.5%), the downstream consumer goods manufacturing accounted for 21.1% (previously 21.3%), other manufacturing accounted for 0.6% (unchanged), and public utilities accounted for 12.5% (previously 12.9%) [6]. Inventory and Asset - Liability Ratio - At the end of September, the nominal and real inventory year - on - year were 2.6% (previously + 2.1%) and 4.9% (previously + 5.0%) respectively, with changes of + 0.5 percentage points and - 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous period. The real inventory decreased year - on - year. The overall asset - liability ratio of industrial enterprises at the end of September was 58.0%, the same as the previous period [7]. Bond Market Situation - **Market Performance**: In the morning session, bond yields rose, possibly pricing in the positive outcome of China - US negotiations. Although the equity market performed well during the day, it did not suppress the bond market. The bond market showed an independent trend, and the yields of interest - rate bonds generally declined. After the central bank's statement on resuming open - market treasury bond trading, long - term yields dropped rapidly. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond dropped by about 3bp, and the yields of the 10 - year CDB active bond and the 30 - year treasury bond active bond dropped by about 4bp [7]. - **Market Outlook**: In the context of economic expectation correction, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise. The report maintains its view on stock - bond allocation [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, and the economy has entered the flat part of the second L - shape [7]. - Structural problems such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise [7]. - There will be a continuous switch in stock - bond allocation, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Import - In September, the import amount was at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years, with a year - on - year increase of 7.4% and a month - on - month increase of 8.5% [4]. - Among key commodities, agricultural products increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 5.0% month - on - month; chemical and pharmaceutical products decreased by 10.3% year - on - year and 1.9% month - on - month; rare earth decreased by 9.2% year - on - year and increased by 26.8% month - on - month; labor - intensive products decreased by 2.8% year - on - year and increased by 10.8% month - on - month; basic metals increased by 16.1% year - on - year and 9.0% month - on - month;机电 products increased by 10.3% year - on - year and 14.2% month - on - month, with automobile products decreasing by 29.8% year - on - year and 7.5% month - on - month; high - tech products increased by 14.2% year - on - year and 18.1% month - on - month [4]. - By country or region, in August, the top three in terms of import value were ASEAN, the EU, and Latin America. ASEAN's import value decreased by 0.9% year - on - year and increased by 11.4% month - on - month; the EU's increased by 9.4% year - on - year and 10.3% month - on - month; Latin America's increased by 18.0% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. China Hong Kong, the UK, and India had relatively large year - on - year changes, at +304.2%, +25.5%, and +23.4% respectively [4]. 3.2 Export - In September, the export amount was at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years, with a year - on - year increase of 8.3% and a month - on - month increase of 2.1%, and the month - on - month increase continued for two consecutive months [5]. - Among key commodities, agricultural products increased by 4.5% year - on - year and 7.2% month - on - month; chemical and pharmaceutical products increased by 18.2% year - on - year and decreased by 4.7% month - on - month; rare earth increased by 97.1% year - on - year and 8.3% month - on - month; labor - intensive products decreased by 4.0% year - on - year and 6.6% month - on - month; basic metals decreased by 2.0% year - on - year and increased by 5.3% month - on - month;机电 products increased by 12.7% year - on - year and 5.2% month - on - month, with automobile products increasing by 8.7% year - on - year and decreasing by 2.9% month - on - month; high - tech products increased by 11.9% year - on - year and 13.2% month - on - month. The export product structure is constantly optimizing and innovating, with labor - intensive products decreasing year - on - year and机电 and high - tech products increasing year - on - year [5]. - By country or region, in September, the top three in terms of export value were ASEAN, the EU, and China Hong Kong. ASEAN's export value increased by 15.6% year - on - year and decreased by 6.1% month - on - month; the EU's increased by 14.2% year - on - year and decreased by 7.1% month - on - month; China Hong Kong's increased by 19.4% year - on - year and 28.0% month - on - month. Affected by tariffs and pre - export rushes, exports to the US decreased significantly year - on - year, while exports to the EU and ASEAN still maintained double - digit year - on - year growth [5]. 3.3 Market - On October 10, Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on China starting from November, causing bond yields to decline rapidly on October 11. As Trump's attitude changed and tariff negotiations cooled down, market risk appetite recovered, and on October 13, the yields of interest - rate bonds oscillated and then rose [6]. 3.4 Trade Balance - In September, the trade surplus increased by 10.6% year - on - year and decreased by 11.6% month - on - month. In the first three quarters of 2025, the trade surplus increased by 26.0% year - on - year [3].

Group 1 - The core concept of fund advisory is to address the issue where funds make profits but investors do not [4] - Fund advisory serves as a solution to enhance investor returns through professional guidance [5] - The article introduces a free course on fund advisory, providing insights and learning materials for better understanding [5][7] Group 2 - The article discusses three classic strategies for stock-bond allocation, emphasizing the importance of asset allocation in different market conditions [10][12] - The first strategy is valuation-based allocation, where funds are shifted to cash or bonds when the stock market is expensive, allowing for opportunistic buying during market dips [13][15] - The second strategy is target risk strategy, which maintains a fixed stock-bond ratio and rebalances when deviations occur, impacting long-term returns and risks [18][19] - The third strategy is target life cycle strategy, which adjusts stock and bond allocations based on age, promoting higher stock exposure in younger years and more stable assets as one ages [21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of maintaining a balanced stock-bond allocation and the strategy of dynamic rebalancing to optimize investment performance during market fluctuations [4][5][6]. Group 1: Stock-Bond Allocation - The simplest form of asset allocation is the stock-bond configuration, which should be based on individual risk tolerance and investment goals, such as a 60% stock and 40% bond allocation [5]. - Maintaining a predetermined stock-bond ratio is crucial to ensure participation in market upswings, referred to as "high moments," which are essential for capitalizing on bull markets [6][8]. Group 2: Dynamic Rebalancing - Dynamic rebalancing involves adjusting the stock-bond ratio back to its original allocation when market fluctuations cause significant deviations [8][9]. - The article suggests that a deviation of 10% in stock asset value should trigger rebalancing, as this aligns with historical annualized returns of broad market indices [27][29]. Group 3: Performance Analysis - Historical data indicates that since 2019, there have been 20 opportunities for dynamic rebalancing, averaging about three times per year, with 11 instances requiring profit-taking from equities and 9 instances necessitating buying into bonds [29]. - The article emphasizes that the primary benefit of dynamic rebalancing is not maximizing profits but smoothing out volatility and maintaining a consistent equity position to capture significant market gains [31][30]. Group 4: Practical Application - The article advocates for a systematic approach to stock-bond allocation and dynamic rebalancing, which is user-friendly and effective for average investors [32]. - It also highlights the importance of adjusting the stock-bond ratio based on market conditions, such as increasing equity exposure during bear markets and locking in profits during bull markets [31].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in the A-share market are seen as a phase of consolidation after a period of continuous growth, which is beneficial for digesting profit-taking pressure and preparing for future medium to long-term market trends [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic economic fundamentals are showing a mild recovery, supported by a series of growth-stabilizing policies, which has improved market risk appetite and expanded profit-making effects [1] - The stock and bond markets are expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend, with investment opportunities likely to emerge in multiple areas [1] Group 2: Fund Details - The newly launched Jianxin Fengze Bond Fund has an asset allocation of 80% in bonds and 5%-20% in equities, aiming to flexibly capture multi-asset market opportunities [2] - The fund will utilize a quantitative analysis framework combined with factor models for stock selection and portfolio construction, focusing on value and dividend styles, along with factors like expectations and financial quality [2] Group 3: Management Team - The fund will be co-managed by Xue Ling and Peng Ziyun, leveraging their respective expertise in equity and fixed income management [2] - Xue Ling has 12 years of experience in the securities industry and 9 years as a fund manager, skilled in using quantitative models to identify market opportunities [2] - Peng Ziyun has 11 years of experience in the securities sector and 6 years as a fund manager, adept at adjusting interest rate bond positions and duration based on macroeconomic cycles [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market's upward trend has led to a significant recovery in the performance of actively managed equity funds, with over 90% of funds exceeding their previous year's net value [1][2] - As of September 12, the CSI 300 index has risen by 15.2% year-to-date, with over 80% of actively managed equity funds outperforming the market, achieving an average return of 28.03% [2] - The "Ant Financial Gold Selection" equity fund has an average return of 29.75% year-to-date, surpassing the performance of the benchmark index [2] Group 2 - More than 80% of investors in equity funds on the Ant Financial platform have achieved profitability, with an average return of 12% for their holdings [2] - The probability of positive returns for investors holding the Gold Selection equity fund is 17% higher than for those holding non-Gold Selection funds, with a return rate that is 7.8% higher [2] - The performance of actively managed equity funds is attributed to both the overall market recovery and the ability of fund managers to generate excess returns [2] Group 3 - Three key investment behaviors have been identified that significantly enhance profitability: diversified allocation, reasonable holding periods, and product selection [4] - Investors who effectively manage their stock-bond allocation have a 6% higher probability of profitability compared to those holding a single asset [5] - Historical data shows that a classic stock-bond combination of 20% stock funds and 80% bond funds yielded an 11.85% cumulative return with a maximum drawdown of only 5.04% during market transitions [5] Group 4 - Investors focusing on long-term stable products tend to achieve better returns than those chasing annual "champion funds," with the Gold Selection equity fund yielding 124.41% since 2019 compared to 95.86% for champion funds [6] - The stability of excess returns, consistency in investment style, and stable management scale are crucial factors for investors when selecting products [6] - Healthy and rational investment behaviors are emphasized as essential for smoothing out the volatility associated with high-risk investments, thereby increasing overall profitability [6]

Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment towards the capital market, especially the stock market, is optimistic, with an emphasis on taking advantage of favorable conditions as they arise [4]. Group 1: Five Key Judgments - The worst phase of the economic cycle is believed to be passing, with all leading economic indicators showing upward trends for the first time in three years [5]. - The period of the most accommodative monetary policy is also seen as coming to an end, with a stable funding environment expected to be negatively correlated with improving economic prospects [5]. - Preconditions for supply-demand balance have emerged, as investment growth in the upstream and midstream sectors has begun to decline [5]. - There is no simultaneous bull market in both stocks and bonds; instead, a rebalancing of stock and bond allocations is necessary, as the relative value of stocks compared to bonds has improved [5]. - The main logic for a trend of appreciation in the RMB has not yet been clearly triggered, with short-term appreciation likely needing further economic validation [5]. Group 2: Economic Cycle - The current economic situation is characterized by significant disparities in economic structure, making total data assessments somewhat misleading [10]. - The reliance on deposit indicators has increased, as the shift from precautionary savings to normal savings is crucial for understanding the economic cycle [10]. - Leading indicators such as old-caliber M1 and the difference in growth rates between corporate and household deposits are critical for predicting future economic performance [14][15]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - The shift from precautionary to normal savings among residents is expected to influence monetary policy and market stability [22]. - The relationship between old-caliber M1 and R007 indicates that as the economy improves, funding volatility is likely to increase, posing challenges for bonds [24]. Group 4: Supply-Demand Balance - Historical experiences suggest that a decline in supply is a crucial precondition for price stabilization [27]. - The current situation shows that upstream supply is outpacing demand, particularly in raw materials, which is exerting downward pressure on prices [29]. - The midstream sector is also experiencing an accumulation of production capacity, which has led to a downward price trend [30]. Group 5: Stock-Bond Dynamics - The analysis indicates that there is likely no simultaneous bull market in stocks and bonds, but rather a reversal in their relationship [32]. - The stock-bond Sharpe ratio difference has been declining, suggesting that bonds have had a comparative advantage over stocks [33]. - The anticipated reversal in asset allocation is expected to occur slightly ahead of the economic cycle, with policy interventions playing a significant role [39]. Group 6: Currency and Macro Trends - The main chain for a trend of appreciation in the RMB has not yet been triggered, with historical patterns indicating that PMI improvements are necessary for such a shift [44][45]. - The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain supportive for the next six months, with stable overseas demand and improved U.S.-China relations contributing to market stability [52].