在企业将高成本负担转嫁给消费者后，英国经济面临的通胀压力正在加剧，英国央行预测，到9月，消 费者价格指数将达到4%。此外，监管机构Ofgem宣布从10月起将能源价格上限上调2%，这将导致数百 万英国家庭的能源账单增加。 新华财经北京8月27日电（王姝睿）市场普遍预期英国央行将在9月会议上维持4%的关键利率不变。然 而，利率前景在之后变得不明朗，这使得英镑交易员难以把握预期。 利率前景的不确定性在英国央行货币政策委员会委员卡瑟琳·曼恩周二的表态中表现得尤为明显。曼恩 表示，她倾向于在较长一段时间内维持利率不变，但如果国内需求下行风险成为现实，她也随时准备采 取"更有力的政策行动，即更大幅度、更快速的降息"。曼恩的言论与英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利此前的 观点相呼应，贝利指出，英国正面临"潜在经济增长疲弱的严峻挑战"。如果英国央行在2026年实施激进 的宽松政策行动，可能会对英镑造成负面影响。 （文章来源：新华财经） 短期内，市场对英国央行降息预期减弱，为英镑提供了上涨动力。投资者认为，英国央行将维持比预期 更长久的谨慎态度。 荷兰国际集团分析师Francesco Pesole表示，由于市场预期英国央行将采取谨慎的降 ...

集团主要客户以欧美国际品牌为主，因关税不确定性持续面临"到岸成本"上升。这些贸易壁垒不仅加剧 客户营运中所面对的冲击，亦因进口商品价格上涨削弱消费者购买力，导致消费情绪趋于谨慎。随供应 链干扰延续，消费者对通胀压力更为敏感。 鸿兴印刷集团(00450)发布截至2025年6月30日止6个月中期业绩，该集团取得营业额9.35亿港元，同比减 少14.63%;公司权益持有人应占亏损4877.9万港元，同比增加990.76%;每股亏损5.4港仙。 ...

智通财经APP讯，鸿兴印刷集团(00450)发布截至2025年6月30日止6个月中期业绩，该集团取得营业额 9.35亿港元，同比减少14.63%;公司权益持有人应占亏损4877.9万港元，同比增加990.76%;每股亏损5.4港 仙。 集团主要客户以欧美国际品牌为主，因关税不确定性持续面临"到岸成本"上升。这些贸易壁垒不仅加剧 客户营运中所面对的冲击，亦因进口商品价格上涨削弱消费者购买力，导致消费情绪趋于谨慎。随供应 链干扰延续，消费者对通胀压力更为敏感。 ...

【黄金期货最新行情】 | 沪金主力 | 779.18 | 0.46% | 226253 | 180151 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8月25日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 鲍威尔意外放"鸽"，9月降息预期升温到90%。8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上发 表重磅讲话，称风险平衡似乎正在发生变化，当前的形势意味着，就业面临的下行风险上升。随着政策 处于紧缩区域，这种风险平衡的转变可能意味着需要调整政策立场。鲍威尔讲话后，交易员加大对美联 储9月降息的押注，完全消化年底前降息两次预期。 【机构观点】 金元期货： 俄乌局势有缓解信号，加之美国7月成屋销售意外上升，8月企业活动加速，制造业订单创18个月新高， 经济数据提振美元和美债收益率的反弹，对于金价起到压制作用。当前市场集中关注美联储主席鲍威尔 即将于周五在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上的讲话。技术面上，国内黄金价格依然纠缠于均线系统，成交量低位 平稳，说明市场情绪较为谨慎，MACD在零轴一线窄幅波动。关注地缘局势和美联储讲话，预 ...

公告称，该等业绩主要归因于：收益大幅下跌约70%，主要由于来自美国及欧洲主要客户的订单量显著 减少(主要由于客户的采购策略变动)，加上宏观经济阻力扩阔；本集团毛利率下跌，乃由于尽管我们策 略性转移至东南亚，但供应链及分包商定价持续承受通胀压力；及利润率较高的童装销售量减少；及鹤 山设施的闲置成本影响，诚如本公司日期为2024年5月24日的自愿公告所述，鹤山设施于2024年5月完成 现有生产订单后并无处理本集团的任何进一步生产订单。 消息面上，近日，恒富控股发盈警，本集团预期截至2025年6月30日止6个月取得大幅扩大的净亏损约 3000万港元，而截至2024年6月30日止6个月的亏损则约为1200万港元。 恒富控股(00643)午前跌超33%，截至发稿，跌33.33%，报0.54港元，成交额2082.51万港元。 ...

华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos表示，鲍威尔释放9月降息信号的同时，暗示市场不应期待"下坡冲刺 式"的激进宽松。他正艰难地在日益疲软的"奇特"劳动力市场与关税驱动的持续通胀压力之间走钢丝。 这种复杂的经济局面与美联储内部分歧，决定了未来的降息将是克制的、渐进的，旨在引导经济实现挑 战重重的软着陆。 美联储的降息大门正在缓缓开启，但前方的道路并非坦途。 美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上的讲话彻底点燃了9月降息的预期。然而，鲍威尔正谨慎地为 降息铺路，其释放的信号表明，这更像是一次审慎的策略调整，而非全面宽松的开始。 8月23日，有"新美联储通讯社"之称的华尔街日报知名财经记者Nick Timiraos分析称，鲍威尔此举似 乎旨在为分歧的同僚们建立共识。 他同时向市场传递了一个微妙而明确的信息：不要期待一次"下坡 冲刺式"的激进降息。 他警告称，若过度关注移民政策收紧等供给侧限制，可能会忽视需求走弱的信号，从而导致就业市场 状况迅速恶化。 在鲍威尔看来，一个降温的劳动力市场，可以成为一个有效的机制，防止因关税导致的商品成本一次 性上涨，演变成薪资与物价轮番上涨的恶性循环。 据Nick Timiraos观 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is cautiously opening the door to interest rate cuts, but the path ahead is fraught with challenges, as indicated by Chairman Powell's recent statements at the Jackson Hole meeting [1][5]. Group 1: Labor Market Concerns - Powell describes the labor market as "peculiar," with a stable unemployment rate masking a decline in both labor supply and demand [2]. - He warns against focusing solely on supply-side constraints, such as immigration policy, which may overlook weakening demand signals that could lead to a rapid deterioration in the job market [2]. - A cooling labor market could help prevent a vicious cycle of rising wages and prices driven by tariffs [2]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements and Inflation Concerns - Despite Powell's efforts to build consensus, there is significant resistance within the Federal Reserve regarding the rationale for rate cuts, with some officials arguing that inflation remains too high [3]. - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack expressed concerns that price pressures are increasing and questioned whether tariff-driven price hikes are merely temporary [3]. - External economists, like Michael Strain, believe Powell's remarks underestimate inflation pressures and overstate the risks of a weakening labor market [3]. Group 3: Cautious Easing Strategy - Powell's cautious tone this year contrasts sharply with his more decisive stance from the previous year, reflecting a fundamental shift in economic conditions [5]. - The current environment of high inflation and lower interest rates necessitates a more restrained approach to monetary easing [5]. - The market should not expect rapid rate cuts unless there is a significant and sudden deterioration in the labor market [6].

然而，同期初请失业金人数增加至23.5万，创八周新高，反映出劳动力市场出现边际降温迹象。这一冷 热交织的局面令美联储面临两难：一方面需要应对通胀压力，另一方面则要考虑就业的放缓风险。 美国公布的8月初值PMI显示制造业和综合指数均超预期上行，制造业PMI大幅回升至53.3，显示出产业 动能的修复。 MACD绿柱缩短，显示空头动能有所减弱；RSI维持在45附近，表明汇价处于中性偏弱区间。若汇价反 弹能站稳1.3450上方，则有望进一步测试1.3520阻力；反之，若跌破1.3380支撑，可能加速下探至 1.3300。 某外汇市场策略师表示："英镑(1.3405, -0.0007, -0.05%)在弱势美元的间歇性回调中获得喘息，但整体走 势依旧取决于鲍威尔讲话是否暗示9月降息的力度。" 编辑观点： 目前GBP/USD的反弹更像是技术性修复，而非基本面驱动。美国数据的分化和美联储官员的立场摇 摆，使得市场在杰克逊霍尔年会上寻找政策信号。 若鲍威尔偏鹰，美元可能再次走强，英镑承压下探1.3300；若言论温和，则英镑或在1.3450之上企稳。 因此，短期保持谨慎，关注1.3380至1.3520区间的突破方向。 据CME ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts and fundamental data for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own specific trend, such as high - level oscillation, slight decline, waiting for policy guidance, etc. [2][5] 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate at a high level, with a trend strength of 1. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 775.12, up 0.32%. The SPDR Gold ETF's position decreased by 1. [2][7][10] - **Silver**: Forecasted to decline slightly, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 yesterday was 9162, up 1.31%. The SLV Silver ETF's position (the day before yesterday) decreased by 28. [2][7][10] Base Metals - **Copper**: Waiting for the Fed's interest - rate cut guidance, with narrowing price fluctuations and a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract yesterday was 78,630, down 0.30%. PT Smelting's smelting plant extended its maintenance period due to equipment failure. [2][12][14] - **Zinc**: Expected to oscillate weakly, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract yesterday was 22240, down 0.11%. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1875 tons. [2][15][17] - **Lead**: Supported by inventory reduction, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract yesterday was 16745, up 0.12%. Shanghai lead futures inventory decreased by 1481 tons. [2][18][19] - **Tin**: Forecasted to oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract yesterday was 266,480, down 0.51%. [2][21][24] - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 20590. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 57.90 million tons, down 0.70 million tons. [2][25][27] - **Nickel**: Expected to oscillate at a low level, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 119,830. [2][28][34] - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to oscillate due to the game between expectations and reality, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,795. [2][29][34] Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: Supported by macro - sentiment premium, with expected increase in import costs. [5] - **Propylene**: With tightening supply - demand and price support. [5] - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with downward pressure in the long term. [5] - **Fuel Oil**: Mainly in an oscillating trend, with short - term strengthening. [5] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Weak and in consolidation, with a slight rebound in the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market. [5] - **PTA**: Due to unplanned device shutdown, a long - spread strategy is recommended. The closing price of the PTA main contract was 4860, up 1.72%. [2][61][62] - **MEG**: Expected to show a strong trend. The closing price of the MEG main contract was 4473, down 0.09%. [2][61][62] - **Benzene Ethylene**: Compressing profit margins. [2] - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market. [2] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The US bio - diesel exemption volume may be lower than expected, leading to an increase in international oil prices. [5] - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillating and consolidating at a high level. [5] - **Soybean Meal**: Due to the large increase in US soybeans overnight, Dalian soybean meal may rebound. [5] - **Soybean**: Rebounding and oscillating. [5] - **Corn**: Expected to run weakly. [5] - **Sugar**: Oscillating within a range. [5] - **Cotton**: The futures price fluctuates narrowly, waiting for new drivers. [5] - **Egg**: Attention should be paid to the rhythm of culling laying hens. [5] - **Live Pig**: Waiting for the end - of - month spot verification. [5] - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts. [5] Others - **Iron Ore**: Supported by the fact that the macro - risk preference has not significantly declined. The closing price of the iron - ore futures contract was 772.5, up 0.46%. [2][43][44] - **Rebar**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the RB2510 contract was 3,121, down 0.03%. [2][46][47] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the HC2510 contract was 3,375, down 0.44%. [2][47] - **Silicon Iron**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the silicon - iron 2511 contract was 5638. [2][51] - **Manganese Silicon**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the manganese - silicon 2511 contract was 5820. [2][51] - **Coke**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the J2601 contract was 1664, down 0.8%. [2][54] - **Coking Coal**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the JM2601 contract was 1147, down 1.3%. [2][54] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 804.5, down 0.1%. [2][57][58] - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is recommended to hold 10 short positions as appropriate. [5] - **Short - Fiber**: Oscillating and strengthening due to upstream supply fluctuations. [5] - **Bottle Chip**: Oscillating and strengthening due to upstream supply fluctuations. [5] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level, with limited upward momentum. [5] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating weakly. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range, silver to decline slightly, and copper to await the Fed's interest - rate cut guidance with a narrowing trading range. Zinc is likely to have a weak - side oscillation, while lead's price is supported by inventory reduction. Tin and aluminum are predicted to trade within ranges, and alumina is expected to decline slightly. Cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Nickel will operate in a low - level range, and stainless - steel prices will oscillate due to the game between expectations and reality [2]. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - **Price and Performance**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 775.12 with a daily increase of 0.32%, and the night - session closing price was 776.08 with a night - session decline of 0.01%. Gold T + D closed at 771.66 with a 0.24% increase, and the night - session price was 772.50 with a 0.01% increase. Comex Gold 2510 closed at 3383.50 with a 0.26% decline, and London gold spot closed at 3338.25 with a 0.25% decline. For silver, Shanghai Silver 2510 closed at 9162 with a 1.31% increase, and the night - session price was 9233.00 with a 0.81% increase. Silver T + D closed at 9144 with a 1.33% increase, and the night - session price was 9198 with a 0.72% increase. Comex Silver 2510 closed at 38.590 with a 0.55% increase, and London silver spot closed at 38.095 with a 0.51% increase [5]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai Gold 2510 and Comex Gold 2510, as well as Shanghai Silver 2510 and Comex Silver 2510, showed different changes compared to the previous day. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 decreased by 24,336, and the open interest decreased by 8,259 [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai gold remained at 36,642 kg, while Comex gold inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) decreased by 65,319. Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 25,144 kg, and Comex silver inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) increased by 347,707 [5]. - **Spread and Arbitrage Cost**: The spreads and arbitrage costs of gold and silver showed various changes. For instance, the spread between gold T + D and London gold decreased by 2.52, and the spread between silver T + D and London silver increased by 5,089 [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold's trend intensity is 1, and silver's is - 1 [8]. Copper - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 78,630 with a 0.30% decline, and the night - session price was 78,730 with a 0.13% increase. The LME copper 3M electronic - trading price closed at 9,721 with a 0.38% increase [10]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract increased by 24,847, and the open interest increased by 1,819. The LME copper 3M electronic - trading volume decreased by 718, and the open interest decreased by 2,295 [10]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 275, and LME copper inventory increased by 1,200. The spreads between different copper contracts and the arbitrage costs also changed [10]. - **News**: Before Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, some Fed officials made hawkish remarks. The US manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high in more than three years, and a smelter's maintenance period was extended due to equipment failure. Codelco restarted a smelter, and Glencore applied to include copper projects in Argentina's investment incentive plan. China's refined copper and copper concentrate imports in July had different changes [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper's trend intensity is 0 [12]. Zinc - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,240 with a 0.11% decline, and the LME zinc 3M electronic - trading price closed at 2,786 with a 0.58% increase [13]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main contract decreased by 26,050, and the open interest decreased by 568. The LME zinc trading volume decreased by 1,474, and the open interest increased by 574 [13]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai zinc inventory remained unchanged, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,875. The spreads and import - profit situations also changed [13]. - **News**: The US manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high in more than three years, and the labor - market cooling was more obvious [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc's trend intensity is 0 [15]. Lead - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,745 with a 0.12% increase, and the LME lead 3M electronic - trading price closed at 1,980.5 with a 0.33% increase [16]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 9,828, and the open interest decreased by 2,546. The LME lead trading volume decreased by 1,375, and the open interest decreased by 964 [16]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai lead inventory decreased by 1,481, and LME lead inventory decreased by 1,500. The spreads and import - profit situations also changed [16]. - **News**: Before Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, some Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and the US manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high in more than three years [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead's trend intensity is 0 [17]. Tin - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 266,480 with a 0.51% decline, and the night - session price was 266,840 with a 0.30% decline. The LME tin 3M electronic - trading price closed at 33,475 with a 0.89% decline [20]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai tin main contract decreased by 27,750, and the open interest decreased by 633. The LME tin 3M electronic - trading volume decreased by 9, and the open interest increased by 53 [20]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 71, and LME tin inventory increased by 25. The spreads between different tin contracts also changed [20]. - **News**: Before Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, some Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and the US manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high in more than three years. The euro - zone business activity reached a 15 - month high, and the US and the EU reached an agreement on the trade - agreement framework [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin's trend intensity is - 1 [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,590, and the LME aluminum 3M price closed at 2,593. The Shanghai alumina main - contract price was 3,124, and the cast - aluminum alloy main - contract price was 20,125. Their prices showed different changes compared to previous periods [23]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes and open interests of Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, Shanghai alumina, and cast - aluminum alloy contracts had various changes [23]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventories of aluminum, alumina, and related products, as well as the spreads between different contracts, showed different trends [23]. - **News**: A Fed official said that there might be no interest - rate cut in September [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and cast - aluminum alloy are all 0 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 119,830, and the stainless - steel main - contract price was 12,795. Their prices showed different changes compared to previous periods [27]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes and open interests of the Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel main contracts had various changes [27]. - **Industry - Chain Data**: The prices and spreads of nickel - related products and stainless - steel products in the industry chain also changed [27]. - **News**: There were issues such as potential nickel - export suspension from Canada, a nickel - iron project in Indonesia entering the trial - production stage, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, and production suspensions in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelters [27][28][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [32].