2 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 课题章》（3）后市分析：综上、预计短期避险或可继续支撑贵金属价格；中期需关注地缘局势进展和油价变化，价格仍有反复可能，但长期来看，贵金属牛市的底层逻辑 仍旧竖昌，在美联储年内仍有降息概率、全球地缘不确定性持续和美国巨额债务将不断推进去美元化浪潮等背景下、全球央行/机构/居民的配置需求有望起球，贵 金属价格重心仍有上行空间，长线策略仍建议以逢低多配为主。 体我告中的意思均源于公开可获得的资料，匿因新货力求准展可靠。但不定上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本帮手不勾成个人投资建议。也未分对个别投资者带放的投资目标、好餐饮服求需要，投资 者需三行判体本报告中的任何意见就是还符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。本报告例向榜定客户的选。未经回贸联股股获评可，任河引用，转载以及向第三方传播的行为构构成定图贸股权规 声明 我司将视情况追究法律责任。 期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 IIC 国贸期货 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2026/3/3 | | --- | --- | ...

| | | ■度策略参考 发布日期:20 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业板块 | 品神 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 短期内,关注中东战事的演变,若战事快速了结,对标2025年6月 | | | | | 13日,以色列袭击伊朗核设施。6月24日伊以签订停火协议,伊以 冲突结束，股指经历了震荡调整后,市场情绪快速恢复,向上突 | | 宏观金融 | 股指 | 震荡 | 破打开上行趋势。除此以外,国内"两会"临近,增量政策与维 稳预期对股指形成支撑。预计股指短期震荡调整空间有限。若本 | | | | | 次中东局势未进一步恶化,则股指短期的调整将带来较好的多头 | | | 国债 | 震荡 | 布局机会。 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行示利率风险,近期关注日 | | | | | 本央行利率决策。 近期海外宏观利多推升铜价,但全球铜库存持续累库压制价格, | | | | | 预计短期铜价震荡运行。 | | | | | 近期中东局势升级,电解铝供应扰动提升的同时,市场情绪承 铝价震荡运行。 | | | 氧化铝 | | 国内氧化铝运行产能下降,但库存进一步累库,短期震荡运 ...

更值得投资者注意的是这种成交的规模：市场异常安静。 成交量走低，纳斯达克100成分股成交量跟踪数据显示下降超过10% ；投资者在日内反弹后 不愿做大幅调仓，个股层面的交易也偏克制，"很多人像被冻住了一样"。 美股隔夜上演"诡异平静"，指数深V反弹但成交缩量。高盛直呼看不懂："原以为会涨跌的板块，结果完全相反"，科技股上涨而医疗防御股反跌。市场波 动集中在飙涨的油价等跨资产，摩根大通强调，尽管霍尔木兹海峡历史上从未真正关闭，但任何扰动都足以瞬间抬高风险定价，若冲突时间超预期，市场 目前的"自满"将面临重估。 3月2日，美股市场开盘先是做出抛售反应，但随后快速消化：美股从早盘低点反弹超过1%，收盘"接近不变"。 高盛交易台给出的市场体感更直白： 市场在淡化地缘风险波动，反而出现大量"看不懂的反向走势" 。他们持续听到的反馈是： "我们原本以为会开盘 上涨或下跌的子板块，结果却完全相反。" 周末中东地缘政治冲突升级，但美股市场却表现出令人意外的"平静"。 板块"走反了"：科技扛住了，防御板块医疗却没扛住 高盛交易部门注意到，尽管美股从早盘低点反弹超过1%，但市场中仍存在许多令人费解的"反向"走势。原本被认为会作为避 ...

特朗普在国情咨文中重申其经济议程，称通胀正回落，经济增长势头良好。针对外界关注的关税问题，他表示将继续推动相关 议程，但承认新增关税的落实需经国会批准，实际操作空间受限。此外，特朗普对伊朗核能力表达强硬立场，称绝不允许其发 展核武器。美伊双方将在日内瓦继续对话，若谈判受阻，可能进一步激发市场避险情绪。 回顾近期表现，金价曾在1月末创下5594.82美元/盎司的历史高点，今年以来累计涨幅达到20%。针对后市，美国银行在最新报 告中指出，当前投资者增持黄金的节奏有所放缓，短期内金价可能面临整理压力。但若关税议题持续发酵，市场避险情绪升 温，或使盘整周期缩短。该机构维持对未来12个月金价突破6000美元/盎司的预期。 【免责声明】以上内容由百利好提供，仅供参考，不构成任何操作建议。据此操作，风险自担。 周三(2月25日)，国际现货黄金市场再现波动。经历了前一交易日的显著回调后，金价在美市盘中反弹上行，但涨势未能持续， 尾盘阶段明显回落，最终收窄日内涨幅，报于5164.79美元/盎司，全天微涨0.40%。 市场分析认为，此轮金价波动主要受两大因素交织影响。一方面，美国总统特朗普关于扩大进口商品关税的表态引发市场关 注 ...

纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2026年4月黄金期价25日上涨23.2美元，收于每盎司5183.7美 元，涨幅为0.45%。 盘中金价一度再度回升到5200美元/盎司上方。 分析认为，近期黄金和白银的短期技术形态均趋于看涨，再次吸引了图表交易者做多。且在当前地缘政 治环境依然不明朗的情况下，避险需求也支撑了金银价格上涨。 消息面上，波士顿联邦储备银行行长苏珊·柯林斯24日表示，由于近期经济数据显示劳动力市场有所改 善，通胀风险依然存在，美国利率可能"在一段时间内"维持不变。柯林斯偏鹰派的政策立场，令当日黄 金上涨空间受到一定限制。 但Forex.com分析师表示，黄金价格在每盎司5200美元至5300美元之间仍面临重大阻力，跌破5100美元 则预示着下行风险，可能跌至4800美元甚至4380美元。 当天5月交割的白银期货价格上涨213美分，收于每盎司89.860美元，涨幅为2.43%。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版 ...

转自：新华财经 消息面上，波士顿联邦储备银行行长苏珊·柯林斯24日表示，由于近期经济数据显示劳动力市场有所改善，通胀风险依然存在，美国利率可能"在一段时间 内"维持不变。柯林斯偏鹰派的政策立场，令当日黄金上涨空间受到一定限制。 摩根大通分析师在25日发布的一份报告中表示，2026年各国央行和投资者的持续强劲需求最终将推动金价在年底达到每盎司6300美元，在当前水平基础上 再上涨22%。报告同时将黄金长期价格预测上调至每盎司4500美元。 但Forex.com分析师表示，黄金价格在每盎司5200美元至5300美元之间仍面临重大阻力，跌破5100美元则预示着下行风险，可能跌至4800美元甚至4380美 元。 当天5月交割的白银期货价格上涨213美分，收于每盎司89.860美元，涨幅为2.43%。 编辑：吴郑思 新华财经纽约2月25日电（记者徐静）纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2026年4月黄金期价25日上涨23.2美元，收于每盎司5183.7美元，涨幅为 0.45%。 盘中金价一度再度回升到5200美元/盎司上方。 分析认为，近期黄金和白银的短期技术形态均趋于看涨，再次吸引了图表交易者做多。且在当前地缘政 ...

Fundamental Analysis - The ongoing tensions in Iran have become a significant driver of risk aversion in the market, with the U.S. military deploying 11 F-22 fighter jets to Israel and Iran conducting military exercises, indicating that military confrontation risks remain high [1] - Iran's foreign minister expressed a desire to reach a fair agreement with the U.S. as soon as possible, creating a "fighting while negotiating" ambiguity that heightens market uncertainty and underscores gold's value as a safe-haven asset [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Cook noted that the AI investment boom could raise the neutral interest rate in the short term and may not alleviate the unemployment wave driven by AI without triggering inflation risks, revealing the complexity of future macroeconomic management [1] - The potential for stagflation, as indicated by Cook's comments on inflation risks, enhances gold's dual appeal as an inflation hedge and a safe haven, despite other officials suggesting that AI will not drastically impact the job market [1] - Overall, geopolitical tensions and the potential inflation risks highlighted by Federal Reserve officials create a favorable macro environment for gold prices, reinforcing its status as a hedge against complex risk assets [1] Technical Analysis - Gold (XAUUSD) has entered an adjustment phase after reaching a historical high, but the bullish trend is recovering, with prices moving out of a consolidation range and the moving average system indicating a clear bullish trend [4] - The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, suggesting a potential adjustment in the short term, while the CCI indicator in the overbought zone indicates strong bullish momentum [4] - The trading strategy suggests looking for buying opportunities on dips [4] Day Trading Strategy - A buy position is suggested around 5144.2, with a stop loss at 5090.0 and a target range of 5249.5 to 5406.0 [5] Silver (XAGUSD) Analysis - Silver prices have retraced after reaching a new high but are now warming up again, indicating a continuation of the bullish trend, with key support levels within the previous consolidation range to watch [7] - The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating a potential adjustment opportunity in the short term, while the CCI indicator near the overbought zone suggests strong overall bullish momentum [7] - The trading strategy recommends looking for buying opportunities on price pullbacks [7] Economic Calendar - Key economic indicators to watch include the German Gfk Consumer Confidence Index, the final value of Germany's Q4 GDP year-on-year, and the Eurozone's CPI year-on-year and month-on-month final values [8]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 25 日 铂：震荡偏强 钯：总体跟随偏强 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 551. 85 | | 1. 28% | | | 金交所铂金 | 545. 09 | | 3.82% | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2178. 60 | | 0. 60% | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2171.50 | | 1.08% | | | 纪金期货2606 | 438. 45 | | 1. 95% | | | 人民币现货纪金 | 430. 00 | | 8. 86% | | 价格 | | | | | | | 纽约肥主连(前日) | 1.809.50 | | 4. 23% | | | 伦敦现货包金(前日) | 1.774.00 | | 0. 51% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | 广铂(千克) | ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, with retail prices reaching 1545 yuan per gram, reflects significant market volatility and varying pricing structures across different sales channels [1][5][6]. Pricing Structure - Retail gold prices at major jewelry stores like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang have increased to 1545 yuan per gram, up from 1518 yuan, indicating a rise of 27 yuan per gram [1]. - In contrast, the wholesale market in Shenzhen quotes gold at 1298 yuan per gram, while banks offer investment gold bars at prices ranging from 1150.14 to 1155 yuan per gram, showing a significant price disparity of up to 445 yuan per gram between retail and wholesale [3][5][6]. - The gold recovery market offers a uniform buyback price of around 1100 yuan per gram, regardless of the purchase price, highlighting the lack of brand value in the recovery process [6]. Market Influences - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving U.S. military actions and Iranian military exercises, are driving investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset [8]. - Expectations regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy have shifted, with a low probability of interest rate cuts in March, which has affected gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [9][11]. - Domestic demand for gold jewelry has surged post-Chinese New Year, contributing to higher retail prices, while global central bank purchases of gold provide long-term support for prices [12]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers are becoming more discerning, with a preference for investment gold bars and lower-weight gold products, indicating a shift towards viewing gold as a long-term asset rather than just a luxury item [14]. - Innovative purchasing strategies are emerging, where consumers buy investment gold bars from banks and then have them crafted into jewelry at lower costs, balancing investment and personal use [16]. Market Predictions - Major financial institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs projecting a target of 5400 USD per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by geopolitical risks [16].

格隆汇2月21日｜欧洲央行管委Panetta：关税对美国自身的伤害大于对其他国家。关税导致了贸易流动 格局重组。美国需要欧洲。欧洲需要共同债务来实现增长。通胀风险可能双向发展。货币政策必须保持 灵活。 ...