"在讨论货币政策的近期走向时， 与会者对 （货币政策）委员会（FOMC） 12月会议最有可能采取的政策决定表达了截然不同的看法 。 大 多数（Most）与会者认为，随着委员会逐步转向更为中性的政策立场，可能适合"进一步降息， "然而，其中一些（several）人暗示， 他们未必认为12月会议适合再降息25个基点。 一些（Several） 与会者评估 认为 ，如果在接下来的 两次会议之间，经济发展符合他们的预期， 可能较为适合12月"进一步降息 。" 许多（Many） 与会者表示，根据他们的经济展望，在今年剩 余时间内， 可能适合"维持利率不变 。 所有与会者一致认为，货币政策并非一成不变，而是会受到各种最新数据、不断变化的经济前景以及风险平衡的影响。 媒体指出，在美联储会议纪要中常用的所谓计数术语中，"许多"（Many）一词代表的人数低于"多数或大多数"（most/majority）。因此， 以上表述显示，在上次FOMC会议中，反对12月再次降息的人仍是少数派。 无论如何，多人认为可能12月不应降息都体现了联储内部的鹰派倾向。 美联储10月29日会后公布的决议声明显示，FOMC决定连续第二次降息25个基点，但 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - A - share major indices closed down collectively, with small - and medium - cap stocks weaker than large - cap blue - chips. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.76%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.12%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets declined slightly, and over 3800 stocks fell. The economic fundamentals in October showed a significant decline in domestic imports and exports, fixed investment, social retail, and industrial added value above designated size. The fixed investment declined for 7 consecutive months, and social retail declined for 5 consecutive months. The real estate market continued to decline rapidly. The M1 - M2 scissors gap ended its 5 - month upward trend. The 11 - month LPR remained unchanged for the 6th consecutive month, indicating a prudent monetary policy and a low possibility of significant reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. In the current macro - data, performance, and policy vacuum period, the market is expected to show a random walk, and stock index futures will remain volatile [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Price and Spread - IF main contract (2512) was at 4539.2, down 31.6; IF sub - main contract (2511) was at 4558.0, down 28.8. IH main contract (2512) was at 3002.6, down 14.8; IH sub - main contract (2511) was at 3008.6, down 14.8. IC main contract (2512) was at 7000.0, down 59.6; IC sub - main contract (2511) was at 7063.4, down 63.0. IM main contract (2512) was at 7263.6, down 35.2; IM sub - main contract (2511) was at 7347.6, down 41.6. The IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1549.4, down 16.0; the IC - IF current - month contract spread was 2505.4, down 27.8. The IM - IC current - month contract spread was 284.2, up 10.4; the IC - IH current - month contract spread was 4054.8, down 43.8. The IM - IF current - month contract spread was 2789.6, down 17.4; the IM - IH current - month contract spread was 4339.0, down 33.4 [2] 3.2 Futures Seasonal Spread - IF current - quarter minus current - month was - 51.8, down 0.6; IF next - quarter minus current - month was - 97, down 2.6. IH current - quarter minus current - month was - 13.0, down 1.4; IH next - quarter minus current - month was - 23.4, down 1.6. IC current - quarter minus current - month was - 242.0, down 0.8; IC next - quarter minus current - month was - 448.4, up 4.2. IM current - quarter minus current - month was - 312.4, up 9.2; IM next - quarter minus current - month was - 540.6, up 11.2 [2] 3.3 Futures Net Positions of Top 20 Holders - IF top 20 net positions were - 22,242.00, down 2488.0; IH top 20 net positions were - 13,615.00, down 598.0. IC top 20 net positions were - 24,823.00, up 1777.0; IM top 20 net positions were - 34,271.00, up 1773.0 [2] 3.4 Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of CSI 300 was 4564.95, down 23.3; the IF main contract basis was - 25.8, down 2.7. The spot price of SSE 50 was 3008.3, down 12.1; the IH main contract basis was - 5.7, up 3.7. The spot price of CSI 500 was 7062.0, down 60.8; the IC main contract basis was - 61.9, up 6.0. The spot price of CSI 1000 was 7340.4, down 46.8; the IM main contract basis was - 76.8, up 12.2 [2] 3.5 Market Sentiment Indicators - A - share trading volume was 17,226.35 billion yuan, down 200.31 billion yuan. Margin trading balance was 24,979.40 billion yuan, down 47.70 billion yuan. North - bound trading volume was 1912.86 billion yuan, down 268.87 billion yuan. Reverse repurchase had a maturity of - 1900.0 billion yuan and an operation volume of + 3000.0 billion yuan. Main funds were - 513.07 billion yuan, down 592.44 billion yuan. The proportion of rising stocks was 22.66%, up 0.69%. Shibor was 1.364%, down 0.056%. IO at - the - money call option closing price was 25.00, down 16.40; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility was 15.55%, up 1.19%. IO at - the - money put option closing price was 12.60, up 0.60; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility was 15.55%, up 1.06%. CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility was 14.42%, up 0.06%. Volume PCR was 60.45%, down 11.30. Position PCR was 78.46%, down 1.21. The Wind market strength of all A - shares was 3.40, up 0.10; the technical aspect was 2.70, up 0.60. The capital aspect was 4.20, down 0.30 [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's October policy meeting minutes showed serious differences among policymakers when cutting interest rates last month. Many officials thought it "might be appropriate" to keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of 2025, while some officials said another rate cut in December "was likely appropriate" if the economy performed as expected. There was almost unanimous agreement to stop the quantitative tightening (QT) of balance - sheet reduction. Some were worried about the disorderly decline of the stock market. The People's Bank of China announced on November 20 that the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% (unchanged from the previous time), and the over - 5 - year LPR was 3.5% (unchanged from the previous time) [2] 3.7 Key Data to Focus On - At 21:30 on November 20, pay attention to the US September non - farm payroll data, unemployment rate, and labor participation rate [3]

铝类产业日报 2025/11/20 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | -60.00 | -5.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -59.00 | +5.00↑ | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 21,530.00 | -40.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,732.00 | -8.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 338,582.00 | -9251. ...

| | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-11-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 115380 | -270 12-01月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -130 | 50 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 14640 | -5 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 152848 | 67836 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -29606 | 2483 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 255846 | -1986 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 40573 | 3386 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 11394 | -2238 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 34079 | -552 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 118200 | 600 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日,元/吨) | 118300 | 700 | | ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 产量继续受限。需求端，锡价上涨，下游及终端企业抑制了本就低迷采买情绪，多数企业对当前高位持观 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 望态度，国内库存持稳，现货升水回升至200元/吨；LME库存小幅增加，现货升水持稳。技术面，持仓下 降价格震荡，多空分歧增加。观点参考：预计沪锡高位调整，关注29关口支撑。 免责声明 | | | 沪锡产业日报 2025-11-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 292030 | -1340 12月-1月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -500 | 150 | | | ...

PGIM全球债券主管Robert Tipp指出："尽管有很多关于美国例外主义终结的讨论，但从宏观角度看，美 元已强势维持数年。"他认为今年美元下跌属于"牛市中的修正"，而非"（牛市行情）终结的开端"。 路孚特数据显示，货币市场对12月降息存在分歧，但预计到2026年底累计降息幅度为85个基点。汇丰预 测欧元兑美元将在今年第四季度和明年第一季度升至1.20，随后在2026年剩余时间回落至1.18。 汇丰全球投资研究部策略师在一份报告中指出，美元可能在2026年第一季度或更早时间触底，随后展开 反弹。他们认为美联储可能在12月再次降息，但2026年进一步降息的可能性较低。 （文章来源：新华财经） 美联储10月会议纪要显示，决策层在上月降息时存在严重分歧。许多官员认为，在2025年剩余时间内维 持利率不变"可能是合适之举"。不过，也有若干位官员指出，若经济表现与预期一致，12月再次降 息"很可能是合适的"。 支持降息的一方并未在人数上占绝对优势，对于缩减资产负债表（缩表）的量 化紧缩（QT）行动，则几乎完全一致认为应该停止。在金融稳定的风险方面，一些人担心股市无序下 跌。 美国劳工统计局表示，11月非农就业报告将于 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a mixed sentiment regarding gold and its ETFs, with a focus on the impact of U.S. monetary policy and market liquidity on gold prices and investment flows [1][2][3] Group 2 - As of November 20, 2025, the gold ETF (159937) has seen a decline of 0.75%, with a recent price of 8.87 yuan, while over the past two weeks, it has accumulated a rise of 2.88% [1] - The liquidity of the gold ETF shows a turnover of 1.75% with a trading volume of 6.81 billion yuan, and the average daily trading volume over the past week is 16.68 billion yuan [1] - On November 19, spot gold prices increased by 0.28% to $4,078.59 per ounce, reaching a daily high of $4,132.86 before retracting [1] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes reveal significant divisions among officials regarding interest rate decisions, with some advocating for a potential rate cut in December if economic conditions align [2] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October employment report, which will be included in the November report due on December 16 [2] - Analysts suggest that the market may exhibit cautious sentiment ahead of important earnings reports and economic data releases, with a focus on the long-term bullish trend for precious metals [2] - In the context of de-dollarization, gold's status as a monetary metal is rising, supported by U.S. liquidity easing and strong central bank gold purchases, indicating long-term price support for gold [3] - The gold ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past three days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 365 million yuan, totaling 886 million yuan and an average daily net inflow of 295 million yuan [3]

Report Information - Report Date: November 20, 2025 - Report Name: Precious Metals Daily Report - Research Institution: Huatai Futures Research Institute Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously Bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously Bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On Hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's October policy meeting minutes revealed significant internal differences regarding the December rate cut, which may create short-term negative sentiment for both gold and silver prices. As a result, both metals are expected to trade in a range-bound pattern. The Au2512 contract for gold is projected to fluctuate between 910 yuan/gram and 950 yuan/gram, while the Ag2602 contract for silver is expected to move between 11,700 yuan/kilogram and 12,300 yuan/kilogram [8]. Market Analysis Fed Meeting Minutes and Employment Data - The Fed's October policy meeting minutes showed severe differences among policymakers during the rate cut decision last month, and the pro-rate cut camp did not have an absolute numerical advantage. There was almost unanimous agreement to halt the quantitative tightening (QT) of balance sheet reduction. Some members were concerned about the risk of a disorderly stock market decline. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October employment report and will incorporate the non-farm payroll data into the November report, which is scheduled for December 16 [1]. Futures Market - On November 19, 2025, the Shanghai Gold (Au) main contract opened at 922.54 yuan/gram and closed at 937.00 yuan/gram, a 2.01% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the overnight session, it opened at 941.98 yuan/gram and closed at 935.42 yuan/gram, a 0.17% decline from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver (Ag) main contract opened at 11,760.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 12,148.00 yuan/kilogram, a 3.84% change from the previous day's close. The trading volume was 1,360,286 lots, and the open interest was 340,206 lots. In the overnight session, it opened at 7,633 yuan/kilogram and closed at 7,644 yuan/kilogram, a 0.27% decline from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yields and Spreads - On November 19, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.12%, a -0.01% change from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.54%, a 0.01% change from the previous day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On November 19, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 4,586 lots, and short positions decreased by 1,549 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts the previous day was 486,709 lots, a 9.18% change from the previous day. In the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 13,646 lots, and short positions increased by 11,943 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Silver contracts the previous day was 1,943,912 lots, a 10.55% change from the previous day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,041.43 tons from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 15,218 tons [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage - On November 19, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -11.67 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,350.29 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was approximately 77.13, a -1.76% change from the previous day, while the ratio in the overseas market was 80.34, a 0.46% change from the previous day [6]. Fundamental Data - On November 19, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 62,688 kilograms, a 4.93% change from the previous day. The trading volume of silver was 785,682 kilograms, a 26.08% change from the previous day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 45,840 kilograms [7].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 11 月 20 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：继续承压 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 21570 | 105 | -310 | ୧୫୧ | 965 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 21530 | - | । | ー | । | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | | | | | | | | | 2815 | 25 | -72 | ୧୫ | 209 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 202981 | -56481 | -20817 | 11244 | 82996 | | | 电解铝 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 347833 | -8714 | ...

2025年11月20日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 宏观 消息 行业 信息 评论 及策 略 普遍下跌，10年期国债活跃券收益率上行至1.808%。央行公开市场操作净投放1150亿元，周一开展8000亿元买断 式逆回购操作，加量续做5000亿元，Shibor短端品种多数下行，税期过后市场资金利率有所回落。美国政府结束"停 摆"，10月政策会议纪要显示，美联储决策层在上月降息时存在严重分歧，对未来降息持谨慎态度，美债收益率回升 。10月份社融存量、M2、M1同比增速回落，居民、企业存款继续流向收益更高的非银领域，工业生产、消费同比增速 放缓，投资降幅扩大，主要受房地产拖累，商品房销售降幅扩大，二手房价格环比继续回落，仍处于调整过程中。当 前经济基本面数据偏弱，央行表示将继续坚持支持性的货币政策立场，预计市场流动性将保持合理充裕，对国债期货 价格具有一定的支撑，近期移仓换月已开启，建议做好移仓规划。 声明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变 ...