2025.11.24 本文字数：1112，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经王珍 铜价现正处于历史高位。11月24日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜的期货价格达到1.08万美元/吨。LME期铜价格10月底触及每吨1.12万美元，创下2024年5 月以来新高。高盛预计，由于供应制约和AI等需求增长，明后年铜价将在1万~1.1万美元。 "现在空调业是充分的市场竞争，只能从经营上应对。"另一空调企业负责人也说。 "目前国内空调业面临新一轮洗牌，国补政策对大企业支持比较明显，中小企业竞争压力大并转向外销。成本上升会进一步加快洗牌速度。长远看，由于 成本上升倒逼企业涨价，或许对目前市场竞争是一件好事，价格战可能将由此放缓。"龙飞说。 值得注意的是，铜的期货价格近日每吨突破一万美元，预计将令明年空调价格有上涨压力，而空调行业零部件以铝代铜的话题被再次提起。 珠海三友环境技术有限公司董事长肖友元向记者预测说，铜价高涨会加速其他金属在制冷零部件中使用的替代进度，包括铝换热器、钢制的各类阀件等。 耐久性和一致性或多或少有点差别，但是铝、钢替代铜在暖通行业的应用技术差不多有10年了，技术越来越成熟，目前四通阀、消音器、储液罐、机内 ...

来源：市场资讯 伦敦金属交易所铝价突破2880美元/吨，触及近三年高点。这一曾经的"平民金属"正成为能 源转型中的战略资源，全球铝市场供需结构发生根本性重构。 全球铝市场已进入一个新的价格范式。当高价格—高利润—新供应的传导链条受制于供应约 束时，价格就具备了易涨难跌的基础。截至2025年11月，LME铝现金价已升至2859美元/ 吨，创下年内新高；沪铝主力价格在21600元/吨上下浮动，处于近十年来的高位区间。 这一轮铝价上涨的背后，是产能、库存、需求和政策四重因素的共同推动。随着全球绿色转 型加速，铝在新能源汽车、光伏、储能等领域的应用呈现爆发式增长，而供应端却受制于产 能天花板、资源民族主义和能源成本高涨等多重约束。 01 全球铝供应链格局重构：资源民族主义与产能转移 1.1 资源分布高度集中与地缘政治风险 铝在地壳中含量达8.3%，是丰度最高的金属元素，但铝土矿资源的分布极不均衡。全球铝 土矿分布高度集中，几内亚占全球储量的26%，澳大利亚占12%，越南占11%，巴西占9%， 而中国仅占2%。 这种资源分布的不平衡导致铝土矿产出集中度更为突出。几内亚占全球产量的29%，澳大利 亚占22%，中国占21% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the aluminum industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a tight supply-demand balance in the global electrolytic aluminum market, with domestic supply constraints leading to potential price increases in 2025 and 2026 [3][25]. - The domestic demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to show resilience, driven by the recovery in the real estate sector and strong growth in the new energy vehicle market [2][3]. - The report anticipates a continued expansion of profit margins in the electrolytic aluminum industry due to declining raw material costs and rising aluminum prices [3][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Side: Capacity Ceiling and Low-Carbon Policies - The Chinese electrolytic aluminum industry is undergoing a supply-side reform that locks in a total capacity ceiling, shifting the focus from quantity to sustainable quality development [14][15]. - The emphasis on energy conservation and carbon reduction is becoming the main theme, with policies aimed at optimizing capacity layout and energy structure [19][20]. 2. Supply Side: Domestic Capacity Nearing Ceiling, Limited Overseas Increment - Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is constrained by a capacity ceiling, with net new capacity expected to be only 20,000 tons in 2025 and 56,000 tons in 2026 [28][29]. - The report notes that overseas production increases, particularly from Southeast Asia, will have limited impact on the domestic market due to the "strong external, weak internal" price dynamic [25][26]. 3. Demand Side: Strong Domestic Demand and Export Advantages - Domestic consumption of electrolytic aluminum is projected to grow at rates of 2.7% and 2.1% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, supported by a recovering real estate market and robust demand from the new energy vehicle sector [2][3]. - The report emphasizes that China's aluminum processing capacity remains significantly advantageous in the global market, reinforcing demand stability [2][3]. 4. Cost: Downward Pressure on Costs, High Profit Era Expected to Continue - The average complete cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to range between 16,000 and 16,400 RMB per ton, with aluminum prices projected to rise to approximately 20,600 RMB per ton in 2025 and 21,500 RMB per ton in 2026 [3][21]. - The combination of declining costs and rising prices is expected to expand profit margins, establishing a high-profit environment as a norm [3][21]. 5. Supply-Demand Balance: Continued Tight Balance, Price Expectations to Rise - The report indicates that the tight balance in supply and demand will persist, with expectations of rising aluminum prices due to domestic supply rigidity [3][25]. - The anticipated implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in January 2026 is expected to further influence pricing dynamics in the industry [3][21]. 6. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong cost control capabilities and stable dividend returns, particularly those leading in low-carbon transitions, such as China Hongqiao, China Aluminum, and Nanshan Aluminum [3][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.85 CNY based on a 2026 PE valuation of 11 times [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a decrease in raw material costs, particularly in aluminum ore, leading to improved profitability in the coming years [2][8]. - The company is actively progressing on key projects aimed at enhancing its integrated aluminum industry layout, which is anticipated to support future growth [8]. - The report forecasts significant growth in earnings per share (EPS) from 1.05 CNY in 2025 to 1.51 CNY in 2027, reflecting a positive outlook for the company's financial performance [3][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to decline from 28,975 million CNY in 2023 to 28,089 million CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 35,253 million CNY in 2025, representing a growth of 25.5% [4][10]. - Operating profit is expected to increase significantly from 2,642 million CNY in 2023 to 5,506 million CNY in 2025, with a notable growth rate of 97.6% in 2024 [4][10]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 2,205 million CNY in 2023 to 4,901 million CNY in 2025, with a growth of 102.0% in 2024 [4][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 14.1% in 2023 to 23.3% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [4][10]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown strong performance, with a 70.32% increase over the past 12 months [6]. - The stock price as of October 29, 2025, was 13.8 CNY, with a 52-week high of 13.9 CNY and a low of 6.48 CNY [5].

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum & Alumina Industry Weekly Report [1] - Analyst: Wang Rong [2] - Date: October 26, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - Aluminum prices are showing a breakthrough trend, with the overall center of gravity trending upward. In the medium to long term, there is a bullish outlook on aluminum's unilateral price, volatility, and smelting profit. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is expected to decline in the fourth quarter, and there is a certain certainty that the price will break through 21,000 this year and early next year [3]. - Alumina has temporarily formed a bottom around 2,800, but the reduction is not continuous. The short - term spot market remains weak, and the price decline has narrowed this week [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Trading: Spreads, Volume, and Open Interest - **Term Spreads**: This week, the A00 spot premium weakened, with the average SMM A00 aluminum premium changing from 0 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, and the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium changing from - 105 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton. The alumina spot premium also weakened, with the Shandong alumina premium to the current month changing from 39 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the Henan alumina premium to the current month changing from 94 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The near - month spread of SHFE aluminum has narrowed [10]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract has increased significantly, and the trading volume has increased slightly. The open interest of the alumina main contract has increased slightly and is at a historical high, and the trading volume has increased slightly [13]. - **Open Interest to Inventory Ratio**: The open interest to inventory ratio of SHFE aluminum has declined, and the open interest to inventory ratio of alumina has continued to decline and is at a historical low [18]. 2. Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Fabricated Products - **Bauxite**: As of October 24, the steel - linked weekly imported bauxite port inventory decreased by 971,300 tons compared with last week, and the port inventory days remained basically the same. As of September, the national 43 - sample enterprise bauxite inventory increased by 420,000 tons month - on - month, and the bauxite inventory days in alumina plants increased. As of October 24, the steel - linked weekly Guinea port bauxite shipment volume increased by 1.5849 million tons compared with last week, and the Australian port shipment volume decreased by 588,300 tons. The Guinea and Australian sea - floating inventories both increased slightly. As of October 17, the bauxite outbound volume from Australian and Guinea ports increased slightly, and the SMM - caliber bauxite arrival volume increased significantly [23][28][29][34]. - **Alumina**: This week, the total alumina inventory continued to increase, with a week - on - week increase of 51,000 tons. The in - plant inventory, electrolytic aluminum plant inventory, and yard/on - the - way inventory increased, while the port inventory decreased. As of October 23, the national alumina inventory was 4.061 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,000 tons [44][51]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: According to the seasonal pattern, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory usually reaches its peak in the fifth or sixth week after the holiday and then enters a destocking cycle. As of October 16, the aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 8,000 tons to 607,000 tons this week [52]. - **Fabricated Products**: This week, the downstream aluminum rod spot inventory and in - plant inventory decreased. As of September, the SMM aluminum profile and aluminum plate - strip - foil finished product inventory ratios decreased slightly, while the raw material inventory ratios increased slightly [58][61]. 3. Production: Output, Capacity, and Operating Rate - **Bauxite**: In September, the domestic bauxite supply was not loose and remained stable. The SMM - caliber domestic bauxite output decreased slightly. Imported bauxite supply is an important factor driving the growth of the total domestic bauxite supply. In terms of provinces, the steel - linked Shanxi bauxite output increased slightly in September, while the SMM - caliber output decreased slightly. The steel - linked Henan bauxite output increased slightly, while the SMM - caliber output decreased. The steel - linked and SMM - caliber Guangxi bauxite outputs both decreased [64][67]. - **Alumina**: The alumina capacity utilization rate remained basically stable. As of October 24, the national total operating alumina capacity was 97.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 600,000 tons. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina output was 1.862 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons, remaining at a high level in recent years. The short - term alumina supply remains loose [71]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of September, the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate remained high due to profit repair. As of October 16, the steel - linked weekly electrolytic aluminum output was 852,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20 tons, remaining at a high level in the past six years. With the arrival of the consumption peak season, the molten aluminum ratio increased seasonally, and the aluminum ingot casting volume is expected to decline month - on - month, reducing the supply pressure [74]. - **Downstream Processing**: This week, the recycled aluminum rod output decreased by 520 tons week - on - week. The aluminum rod plant load decreased slightly, and the aluminum rod weekly output decreased by 900 tons week - on - week. The aluminum plate - strip - foil output increased slightly, with a week - on - week increase of 900 tons. The domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprise operating rate decreased slightly by 0.1% week - on - week. The aluminum plate - strip operating rate increased, but there are expectations of demand decline. The aluminum foil operating rate decreased, and there is a risk of weakening terminal demand. The aluminum profile operating rate increased slightly, but the photovoltaic profile was affected by the reduction of downstream component factory production. The aluminum cable operating rate increased slightly, the recycled aluminum alloy operating rate remained flat, and the primary aluminum alloy operating rate increased [77][78][81][83]. 4. Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Fabricated Products - **Alumina**: This week, the alumina profit decreased slightly. The steel - linked metallurgical - grade alumina profit was 135.4 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit remained at a good level. Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan alumina profits remained stable, and Guangxi alumina had better profit performance due to relatively firm cost [85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum profit remains at a high level. However, the complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainties and interfered with market expectations [97]. - **Downstream Processing**: The aluminum rod processing fee decreased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the downstream processing profit remains at a low level [98]. 5. Consumption: Import Profit and Loss, Export Profit and Loss, and Apparent Demand - **Import Profit and Loss**: The alumina and SHFE aluminum import profit and loss have narrowed [107]. - **Export**: In September 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased slightly by 14,000 tons month - on - month. The aluminum fabricated product export profit and loss showed differentiation, and the aluminum processing product export demand was hindered by trade policy adjustments [109][112]. - **Apparent Demand**: The commercial housing transaction area decreased, and the automobile production increased month - on - month [116].

Core Viewpoint - Aluminum is undergoing a value reassessment, transitioning from being viewed as a "common metal" to being recognized as a strategic asset in the global energy transition, akin to copper [2][6]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global aluminum prices have surged over 6% since October, reaching nearly three-year highs, driven by structural changes in supply and demand [1][3]. - Domestic aluminum production capacity is nearing its ceiling, with a utilization rate of 99.41%, indicating limited room for future growth [4][5]. - The demand for aluminum is being bolstered by emerging industries such as electric vehicles and solar energy, which are offsetting declines in traditional sectors [4][5]. Price Influences - The recent price increase is linked to macroeconomic uncertainties, including the U.S. government shutdown and rising gold prices, which have positively impacted non-ferrous metal prices [3][8]. - The correlation between copper and aluminum prices is strong, with rising copper prices enhancing aluminum's market demand as a substitute [5][6]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that aluminum prices will likely remain high and may gradually increase, supported by stable supply and demand dynamics [7][8]. - The potential for aluminum to replace copper in various applications is growing, particularly in electrical wiring, due to its cost advantages [6][7]. - The global aluminum market is expected to face challenges from macroeconomic factors and geopolitical risks, which could influence price stability [8].

Group 1: Report General Information - The research object is Huafeng Aluminum Co., Ltd., and the industry is non - ferrous metals. The research date is September 1, 2025 [1][2][17] - The participating research institutions include a large number of investors [2] Group 2: Company Overview - Huafeng Aluminum focuses on the R & D, production, and sales of aluminum strips and foils. Its main products cover various series of aluminum alloy strips and foils in the heat transfer field, widely used in automotive heat exchange systems and new - energy vehicle power battery components. It has production bases in Shanghai and Chongqing and exports products to over 40 countries and regions. It has won honors such as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's Manufacturing Single - Champion Demonstration Enterprise and National Green Factory [24] Group 3: Company's 2025 H1 Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's overall operation maintained a steady development trend. The core business advanced steadily, and the market layout was continuously optimized. The Chongqing Phase II project advanced as planned [25] - The company achieved an operating revenue of 5.964 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year - on - year increase of 20.87%; a total profit of 648 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.02%; a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of 570 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.15%; and earnings per share of 0.57 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.79% [25] Group 4: Interaction and Q&A New Project Investment Progress - The "Intelligent Construction Project of High - end Aluminum Strips and Foils for New - Energy Vehicles with an Annual Output of 450,000 Tons" is under construction. It will introduce 1 + 1+4 hot continuous rolling mills, high - speed cold continuous rolling mills, and supporting shears. It will be built on the original land of Chongqing Huafeng and about 500 additional acres of land, with a total investment of 2.6 billion yuan. In May 2025, Chongqing Huafeng acquired the state - owned construction land use right of relevant plots in Baitao Street, Fuling District [26] Cost Reduction of the New Project - Due to the tight capacity of the previous hot - rolling process, the company has increased the purchase of semi - finished raw materials and outsourced processing in recent years, increasing costs. After the Phase II project is put into operation, the number of outsourced processing and semi - finished product purchases is expected to decrease, which will help reduce the comprehensive product cost. After the hot - continuous rolling equipment is put into operation, the company will carry out cost - reduction planning based on actual operations [27] Progress in Emerging Application Fields - The company is a material supplier for radiator customers and indirectly applies materials in emerging fields through downstream customers. Currently, the application in emerging fields is in its infancy, with most products in the verification, promotion, and small - batch production stages, and mass production will be promoted as downstream market demand grows [28] Group 5: Company's Future Plans - The company will continue to focus on the core business direction, steadily advance various tasks, and protect the rights and interests of all shareholders. It also hopes to maintain smooth communication with investors [29]

Group 1 - The core concept of "aluminum replacing copper" as a conductive material is being actively explored by technology companies, with recent developments indicating a potential breakthrough in this area [1][2] - TE Connectivity and Bowei Alloy recently held a closed-door seminar to discuss advancements and future plans regarding the "aluminum replacing copper" technology, inviting over 50 leading companies in the automotive and battery sectors [1][3] - Copper is currently the most widely used conductive material, essential for the electrification of vehicles, with an average of 60 kilograms of copper used in each electric vehicle, significantly more than traditional fuel vehicles [1][4] Group 2 - Aluminum has about two-thirds the conductivity of annealed copper, but its lower melting point and softness can lead to issues such as increased electrical resistance and potential electrical accidents [2][3] - TE Connectivity announced a new generation of low-voltage aluminum core conductors that reportedly solve the issue of electrochemical corrosion between aluminum and copper, enhancing aluminum's creep resistance to near that of pure copper [2][3] - The collaboration between Bowei Alloy and TE Connectivity faced challenges, particularly with the mechanical strength and thermal stability of different aluminum alloys, leading to a focus on developing aluminum alloys that can withstand high temperatures [3][4] Group 3 - The automotive industry is facing a "copper shortage" crisis, with 80% of copper concentrate in China being imported, and the demand for copper continuing to rise due to advancements in artificial intelligence and electrification [4] - The transition to aluminum replacing copper is seen as beneficial for alleviating resource pressures and reducing carbon emissions, as the carbon emissions from primary copper smelting are three times higher than those from aluminum [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company Bowei Alloy (601137.SH) reported a revenue of 10.221 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.21%, and a net profit of 676 million yuan, up 6.05% year-on-year. The growth is attributed to increased sales volume, particularly in the new materials sector, which saw a sales volume of 125,600 tons, an 11% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Bowei Alloy achieved total revenue of 10.221 billion yuan, representing a 15.21% increase year-on-year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 676 million yuan, reflecting a 6.05% year-on-year growth [1]. - The sales volume of new materials reached 125,600 tons, contributing significantly to the company's revenue growth [1]. Group 2: Product Development and Market Potential - Bowei Alloy, in collaboration with Tyco Electronics, has made significant advancements in developing "aluminum substitute copper" composite materials for automotive low-voltage wiring harnesses, potentially opening a market space of approximately 36 to 48 billion yuan [2][4]. - The new composite material is expected to be ready for vehicle integration by the end of 2026, with mechanical properties comparable to copper wire under high temperatures [2][4]. - The automotive industry faces a "copper shortage" due to increasing demand, particularly as electric vehicles and AI technologies expand, making the development of aluminum alternatives critical [3][4]. Group 3: Technical Challenges and Innovations - The main technical challenges for "aluminum substitute copper" include addressing aluminum's creep and electrochemical corrosion issues, which have hindered its large-scale application in the automotive sector for over 20 years [4][5]. - Tyco Electronics has announced a new generation of low-voltage aluminum core conductors that reportedly overcome the electrochemical corrosion problem, which is crucial for the material's viability [4][5]. - Bowei Alloy's expertise in copper alloys is seen as a valuable asset in innovating aluminum alloys, with confidence in transferring knowledge from copper to aluminum development [5].

Core Insights - The air conditioning market in China is experiencing significant growth due to high temperatures and government subsidies, with production expected to reach 120.32 million units in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [2] - Domestic sales are projected to grow by 9.0% to 66.54 million units, while exports are expected to decline by 7.5% to 56.56 million units [2] Market Dynamics - The air conditioning market has shown strong performance in the first half of the year, driven by government subsidies and an early onset of high temperatures in June [3] - From January to May, domestic shipments reached over 54 million units, marking a historical high with a year-on-year growth of 7.8% [4] - The Northeast region has seen an unprecedented surge in air conditioning sales, with some areas experiencing growth rates of up to 1000% due to extreme heat [4][5] Government Subsidies - The government subsidy program has expanded, allowing households to receive subsidies for up to three air conditioning units, significantly boosting demand [9] - Some consumers have reported difficulties accessing these subsidies, but the program is expected to continue in the long term despite temporary disruptions [10] Technological Trends - The main technological trends in air conditioning focus on energy efficiency and temperature control, with AI technology increasingly integrated into new products [12][14] - AI features allow for real-time temperature monitoring and adjustment based on user location, enhancing user experience [15] Consumer Guidance - Consumers are advised to select air conditioning units based on room size, brand reputation, and compatibility with existing home appliances [31][32] - The average price of air conditioning units has decreased, influenced by the introduction of entry-level products [36] Industry Challenges - The rising cost of copper has led to discussions about alternative materials, such as aluminum, although technical challenges remain before widespread adoption can occur [40][41] - The air conditioning industry is currently in a replacement cycle, with significant potential for market growth driven by technological advancements and changing consumer needs [29][30]