Pricing - The price of Wuxi Hongwang 304 cold-rolled steel is stable at 13,100 yuan/ton, while Foshan Hongwang is at 13,200 yuan/ton, both showing no daily change [1] - The basis has decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 360 yuan/ton [1] Raw Materials - Nickel ore prices remain strong, with a rise in transaction volume; however, the quality of nickel ore from Indonesia is declining [1] - Nickel pig iron prices are stable around 950 yuan/nickel (including tax), but ongoing losses in stainless steel production are expected to suppress demand for nickel pig iron [1] - Chrome ore prices are rising due to strong cost support and reduced supply in August [1] Supply - In August, the estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel plants was 3.2795 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 68,700 tons (2.14%) but a year-on-year decrease of 2.37% [1] - The forecast for September crude steel output is 3.4021 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.74% and a year-on-year increase of 3.57% [1] Inventory - Social inventory is decreasing slowly, with a total of 472,000 tons of 300 series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan, a week-on-week decrease of 6,000 tons [2] - As of September 22, stainless steel futures inventory is at 89,377 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 6,972 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with downstream sectors beginning to restock ahead of the holiday, but overall demand remains stable [3] - Nickel ore prices are supported by strong demand, while the supply from Indonesia is relatively ample [3] - The forecast for crude steel production in September indicates continued increases, primarily in the 300 series, which may exert pressure on supply [3] - Despite a decrease in social inventory, the absolute volume remains high, indicating ongoing challenges in demand fulfillment [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities in the report are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][4][5][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil market is currently affected by the uncertainty of supply - side expectations, and oil prices are expected to oscillate. The fuel oil market is also in an oscillating state due to factors such as supply and demand and sanctions. The asphalt market has increased production expectations in September, and the price will oscillate while paying attention to the actual demand. The polyester market has improved demand expectations, and the supply has shrunk due to some device overhauls, with prices following cost fluctuations. The rubber market has support from demand, and the price will oscillate in the short - term. The methanol market will maintain an oscillating trend considering supply and demand changes. The polyolefin market is gradually transitioning to a state of both strong supply and demand, with narrow - range oscillations. The PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly due to factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [1][2][4][5][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI October contract rose $0.9 to $64.15/barrel (1.42% increase), Brent October contract rose $0.83 to $68.05/barrel (1.23% increase), and SC2510 closed at 481.5 yuan/barrel, down 4.9 yuan/barrel (1.01% decrease). Last week, US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased due to increased demand. Russia extended the gasoline export ban until September 30. Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian oil export pipelines and US tariffs on Indian imports affected Russian crude exports, with weekly shipments decreasing to 272 barrels/day in the week ending August 24. The market is affected by supply - side uncertainty, and oil prices are expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, FU2510 fell 2.39% to 2821 yuan/ton, and LU2511 fell 1.47% to 3485 yuan/ton. Affected by US sanctions on Iran and previous low valuations, FU had a strong rise this week but回调ed with the oil price yesterday. The Chinese refinery's average utilization rate of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 63.61% as of August 27, up 1.04 percentage points from last week. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakened further, and the high - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure is expected to continue. FU is affected by sentiment and is expected to oscillate [2] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, BU2510 fell 0.57% to 3505 yuan/ton. The domestic refinery's asphalt production plan in September is about 2.64 million tons, a 10% increase from August and a 33% increase from the same period last year. This week, the domestic refinery's asphalt inventory level was 27.15%, down 0.66% week - on - week, and the social inventory rate was 33.94%, up 0.04% week - on - week. The asphalt plant's device utilization rate was 36.67%, down 0.25% week - on - week. In September, the demand is expected to increase, and the price will oscillate while paying attention to the actual demand [2][4] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4824 yuan/ton, down 0.94%; EG2601 closed at 4481 yuan/ton, down 0.2%. The polyester yarn sales in the Yangtze River Delta region are still weak, with an average sales estimate of about 30%. A 300,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol device in Shanxi is restarting, and a cracking device in Singapore has an unexpected delay in restart. The demand improvement brings positive support, and the supply has shrunk due to device overhauls. The prices of PX and TA follow cost fluctuations, and the ethylene glycol price is favorable due to reduced imports and lower inventory [4][5] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, RU2601 fell 125 yuan/ton to 15760 yuan/ton, NR fell 175 yuan/ton to 12615 yuan/ton, and BR fell 135 yuan/ton to 11710 yuan/ton. From January to July, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 0.8% year - on - year, but exports to China increased by 5% year - on - year. The supply - side prices of cup rubber and latex are relatively firm, and the demand - side tire exports have increased, supporting the short - term price to oscillate [5] - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang is 2250 yuan/ton. Recently, there have been many domestic device overhauls, and the supply is at a phased low. Overseas, Iranian device loads are high, and short - term arrivals will remain high. However, with the increase in the price difference between Europe, India, and China, the arrival volume will decrease in the long - term. The MTO device load in East China is not high, and the port inventory will increase in the short - term. The price is expected to oscillate [5][7] - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China wire - drawing PP is 6910 - 7080 yuan/ton. The production profit of different raw material - based PP varies. The subsequent production volume will remain high, and the downstream enterprise's operating rate is currently low but is expected to increase with the approaching of the peak demand season. The market is gradually transitioning to a state of both strong supply and demand, and the price will oscillate narrowly [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The market price in East China, North China, and South China has adjusted weakly. The domestic real - estate construction has stabilized and recovered, and the demand for pipes and profiles is expected to increase. However, exports will be affected by India's anti - dumping policy. The supply remains high, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7][8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - This part provides the basis and reference for analyzing the market trends of various energy - chemical products by presenting the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes of multiple energy - chemical varieties on August 27 and 26, as well as the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3.3 Market News - The US imported about 74,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude oil in the week ending August 22, which is the first time since the US government issued a new license to Chevron to operate in Venezuela. Russia extended the gasoline export ban until September 30, with different lifting times for fuel manufacturers and non - manufacturers [14] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: It shows the historical closing prices of the main contracts of multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, helping to analyze the long - term price trends of these products [16][18][20][22][24][25][26][28] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It presents the historical basis data of multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, which is useful for understanding the relationship between spot and futures prices [30][32][36][38][40][42] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the historical spreads of different contracts of multiple energy - chemical products, which can be used to analyze the price differences between different contract periods [44][46][49][52][54][57][60] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the historical spreads and ratios between different energy - chemical products, helping to analyze the price relationships between different varieties [62][63][64][66] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the historical production profit data of multiple energy - chemical products, which is helpful for understanding the profitability of different products [67][69][71] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and professional backgrounds in the energy - chemical field, and they have won many industry awards [73][74][75][76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests investors should approach oil and chemical investments with a mindset of slightly bullish oscillations, awaiting the implementation of specific policies to address over - competition in China's petrochemical industry. The ratings for each variety are as follows: oil prices are expected to be slightly bearish with oscillations; asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, pure benzene, styrene, PVC, and caustic soda are expected to oscillate; LLDPE, PP, and PL are expected to oscillate in the short - term [7][10]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hardening of the US stance towards Russia is the main reason for the recent strengthening of crude oil prices. Meanwhile, the chemical sector continues to be strong, awaiting policy implementation. The polyester chain performs best, while the pure benzene and styrene chains underperform. Polyolefins saw a late - stage price increase, and ethylene glycol's low port inventory supports its price [2][3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Amidst warming macro - sentiment and continuous geopolitical disturbances, oil prices rebounded slightly after stabilizing. However, with OPEC+ accelerating supply release, high US production, and the potential decline of high - operating refineries in China and the US, the rebound's sustainability is limited. Oil prices are expected to oscillate with a slight downward trend, and short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations should be monitored [10]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term negative impacts of tariff hikes, OPEC production increases, and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are outweighed by the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine, Middle - East, and US - Venezuela situations. The geopolitical premium for asphalt has resurfaced, supporting its cost. The asphalt - fuel oil spread has declined from its high, and the refinery's continuous return to operation has driven the spread down. The high premium of asphalt futures is supported, but its absolute price is overestimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The short - term negative impacts are overshadowed by the escalation of geopolitical situations, and the geopolitical premium for high - sulfur fuel oil has returned. Although the increase in heavy - oil supply is more certain, factors such as the attack on Russian refineries, the attack on the Druzhba pipeline, and US sanctions on Chinese fuel - oil - importing enterprises have contributed to the price increase. The high cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil also supports its price. However, the price disturbance caused by geopolitical escalation is short - term, and changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation should be monitored [12]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the oscillation of crude oil prices. Facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, its valuation is low. Fundamentally, the pressure on domestic refined - oil supply may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, and it is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation, following the fluctuations of crude oil [13]. - **PX**: With the overall oscillation of crude oil prices and the strengthening of naphtha prices, there is still some support at the cost end. The new PTA production line has started production, and with the continuous improvement of terminal polyester and textile demand, the price of PX is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend under low - inventory conditions. It is recommended to buy on dips at the medium - term level, paying attention to the support at 6750 - 6800 [14]. - **PTA**: The new production line has started production, and the pattern of inventory reduction remains unchanged. There is short - term cost support and a favorable macro - sentiment. In the medium - term, the pattern is expected to improve in August - September, and it is recommended to buy on dips at the medium - term level, with support in the 4700 - 5000 range [14]. - **Pure Benzene**: The recent positive signals from Russia - Ukraine peace talks have weakened the support for oil prices. In Asia, South Korea plans to shut down and overhaul cracking units in October, and the naphtha inventory in the ARA hub has risen. The port inventory of pure benzene has continued to decline, but the decline rate has slowed. The market is trading on the expected increase in inventory pressure. In the short - term, it is driven by sentiment and may be slightly bullish. In the medium - term, if no specific de - capacity policies are implemented, it may return to the fundamental trading of inventory accumulation [16]. - **Styrene**: The direct sales to downstream have decreased, and the arrival of supplementary goods has increased, leading to inventory accumulation at the port and a price decline. With the news of de - capacity in China and South Korea, the prices of pure benzene and styrene have rebounded. In September - October, with more maintenance plans, the supply - demand situation may reverse, and it is possible to try to expand profits in the September - October period. Fundamentally, it is still bearish, but short - selling is against the trend in the short - term due to factors such as production - limit policies for the September parade, continuous release of macro - policies, and coal - mine safety accidents [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Despite high domestic supply pressure, the visible inventory has decreased month - on - month and is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. According to the shipping and arrival schedules, the port inventory will continue to decline in early September. The short - term fundamentals are moderately positive, and the low port inventory and the expectation of the polyester peak season provide good support. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the upper pressure at 4600, and the EG09 - 01 reverse - spread position should be held [20]. - **Short - Fiber**: It is waiting for cost guidance from upstream products. The upstream polymerization cost oscillates without obvious guidance, and the price of short - fiber oscillates within a range. Fundamentally, it has weakened slightly, and the production - sales ratio has slowed down. Without obvious positive demand stimuli, the processing fee is expected to remain in a low - level range. The absolute value of short - fiber follows the fluctuations of raw materials and oscillates in the short - term [21]. - **Bottle - Chip**: There is some cost support, but its own driving force is limited, and the processing fee is passively compressed. As the peak season ends, demand may weaken. Attention should be paid to the polyester factories' willingness to adjust their operating rates in September. The price oscillates, and the absolute value follows the fluctuations of raw materials [22]. - **Methanol**: In the short - term, it oscillates. The recent news of China's chemical - capacity policy has boosted the market sentiment, but the actual impact on methanol is limited. Considering the high probability of overseas shutdowns in the far - month, opportunities for buying at low prices in the far - month can be monitored [27]. - **Urea**: The actual demand is insufficient, and the export release is slow. Without positive support under the unchanged fundamentals, the futures price is under pressure. Before the actual export release, the market is in a wait - and - see mode, and the futures price is expected to oscillate with a slight downward trend. Attention should be paid to the actual progress of exports [25]. - **LLDPE**: The futures price has rebounded slightly. The news of domestic device overhauls to address over - capacity in the petrochemical industry and the news of South Korean petrochemical capacity elimination have stimulated the price, but the actual impact is limited. The short - term oil price has rebounded slightly, and the macro - level still has capital games. The fundamentals of LLDPE are still under pressure, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, paying attention to the demand during the peak season [29]. - **PP**: The futures price oscillates. The news of domestic device overhauls and the expectation of South Korean petrochemical device elimination have stimulated the price, but the actual impact is limited. The oil price oscillates in the short - term, and the supply side of PP still has an increasing trend. The upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure exists, and the demand is in the off - peak to peak - season transition, with low operating rates in the plastic - weaving and injection - molding industries. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [31]. - **PL**: In the short - term, it follows the oscillation of PP. The short - term sentiment in the olefin sector has been boosted by the news from China and South Korea, but the downstream buying enthusiasm has decreased. The trading volume of propylene enterprises has decreased, and the price has moved down slightly. The short - term futures price follows the fluctuations of PP, and the polypropylene processing fee represented by PP - PL is the focus of the market [33]. - **PVC**: The market sentiment has improved, and PVC has weakly stabilized. At the macro - level, there are expectations of anti - over - competition policies in China, and the probability of overseas interest - rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, with stable costs. The upstream has started autumn maintenance, production has declined, downstream operating rates have changed little, and low - price purchases have increased. The anti - dumping policy may take effect within a month, and export expectations are under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with the driving force coming from the improvement of market sentiment and the pressure from inventory accumulation [34]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price increase may slow down. At the macro - level, there are expectations of anti - over - competition policies in China, and the probability of overseas interest - rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the inventory replenishment demand from non - aluminum industries is approaching the end, and there is pressure from warehouse receipts in the near - month. It is recommended to take profits on long positions in the October contract at high prices. For the January contract, it is recommended to buy on dips because the expectations of alumina and MHP production cannot be falsified, and the high operating rate of alumina supports the demand for caustic soda [35]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, and others have different changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.52 with a change of 0.01, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is 8 with a change of - 4 [37]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse - receipt data of various varieties are provided. For example, the basis of asphalt is 8 with a change of - 9, and the number of warehouse receipts is 72650 [38]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. have different changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 198 with a change of - 21 [40]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - This part provides data monitoring on the basis and spreads of various chemicals such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented in the text [41]. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including the commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index), and sector index (energy index) are provided. For example, the commodity 20 index is 2486.32, up 0.97%, and the energy index on August 25, 2025, is 1226.46, up 0.84% for the day [281][283].

Group 1 - The article discusses a macro quantitative framework that combines economic, liquidity, credit, and inflation factors for asset allocation and industry/style configuration [1][3] - The framework has been adjusted based on the changing mapping of macro variables to assets, with a focus on economic and liquidity indicators [1][5] - The performance of aggressive portfolios since 2013 shows an annualized return of approximately 8.5%, with a 0.6% excess return compared to the benchmark [3][5] Group 2 - The article highlights the impact of macroeconomic conditions on industry and style configurations, incorporating credit sensitivity into the analysis [5][7] - The macro-sensitive industry configuration has shown varying performance, with a notable decline since 2022, indicating the need for adjustments in selection criteria [7][10] - The article emphasizes the importance of market expectations in influencing macroeconomic indicators and their relationship with asset performance [13][18] Group 3 - The Factor Mimicking model is introduced to capture market expectations regarding macro variables, using a refined stock pool for better representation [19][20] - The construction of the Factor Mimicking portfolio aims to reflect the market's implicit views on economic, liquidity, inflation, and credit variables [19][23] - The article discusses the need for additional micro mappings to enhance the representation of macro variables, particularly in relation to corporate earnings and valuations [28][30] Group 4 - The article outlines the adjustments made to the macro variables based on market expectations, focusing on economic, liquidity, and credit dimensions [34][36] - The revised indicators are expected to improve asset allocation strategies, particularly in the context of equity markets [39][40] - The performance of the revised industry and style configurations indicates a positive impact from incorporating market expectations into the analysis [46][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report believes that although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and the macro - environment is bearish, the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts are still good. It is a good opportunity for left - side layout, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - opens, the oil price will have more upside potential [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - WTI主力原油期货收跌0.92美元，跌幅1.44%，报63.08美元；布伦特主力原油期货收跌0.60美元，跌幅0.90%，报66.11美元；INE主力原油期货收涨5.80元，涨幅1.19%，报495.2元 [1] - 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据显示，汽油库存累库0.36百万桶至7.66百万桶，环比累库4.95%；柴油库存累库0.36百万桶至2.25百万桶，环比累库18.97%；燃料油库存累库0.10百万桶至9.70百万桶，环比累库0.05%；总成品油累库0.72百万桶至19.62百万桶，环比累库3.81% [1] Methanol - 8月12日09合约涨2元/吨，报2391元/吨，现货涨3元/吨，基差 - 14 [4] - 国内开工再度回落，企业利润维持高位，后续供应大概率边际走高；进口卸货速度增快但港口MTO装置停车，港口累库加快；内地受烯烃外采支撑企业库存去化，整体压力较小 [4] - 甲醇估值偏高，下游需求偏弱，价格面临压力，单边受整体商品情绪影响大，建议观望 [4] Urea - 8月12日09合约涨5元/吨，报1727元/吨，现货跌20元/吨，基差 - 17 [6] - 国内开工继续回落，企业利润处于低位，后续预计逐步见底回升，开工同比仍处中高位，整体供应宽松 [6] - 国内农业需求扫尾，进入淡季；复合肥开工因秋季肥生产持续回升，后续需求集中在复合肥和出口端；国内需求整体偏弱，企业库存去化缓慢，同比仍在中高位 [6] - 尿素整体估值偏低，继续回落空间有限，倾向于逢低关注多单等待潜在利多 [6] Rubber - 工业品整体上涨，NR和RU震荡反弹 [8] - 全钢轮胎开工率同比走高，截至2025年8月7日，山东轮胎企业全钢胎开工负荷为60.98%，较上周走低0.08个百分点，较去年同期走高8.72个百分点，国内走货慢但出口表现好；国内轮胎企业半钢胎开工负荷为74.53%，较上周走低0.10个百分点，较去年同期走低4.21个百分点，半钢轮胎工厂库存有压力 [9] - 截至2025年8月3日，中国天然橡胶社会库存128.9万吨，环比下降0.48万吨，降幅0.4%；中国深色胶社会总库存为80.4万吨，环比降0.13%；中国浅色胶社会总库存为48.5万吨，环比降0.8%；截至2025年8月4日，青岛天然橡胶库存50.12（ - 0.73）万吨 [10] - 现货方面，泰标混合胶14600（ + 50）元，STR20报1805（ + 10）美元，STR20混合1800（ + 10）美元，江浙丁二烯9300（ - 50）元，华北顺丁11500（0）元 [11] - 胶价短期涨幅大，宜中性思路，快进快出；多RU2601空RU2509择机波段操作 [11] PVC - PVC09合约上涨37元，报5047元，常州SG - 5现货价4910（ + 20）元/吨，基差 - 137（ - 17）元/吨，9 - 1价差 - 146（ + 2）元/吨 [11] - 成本端电石乌海报价2325（ - 15）元/吨，兰炭中料价格620（0）元/吨，乙烯825（ + 5）美元/吨，烧碱现货800（0）元/吨；PVC整体开工率79.5%，环比上升2.6%；其中电石法78.7%，环比上升2.6%；乙烯法81.5%，环比上升2.5% [11] - 需求端整体下游开工42.9%，环比上升0.8%；厂内库存33.7万吨（ - 0.8），社会库存77.7万吨（ + 5.4） [11] - 企业综合利润上升至年内高点，估值压力大，检修量减少，产量处五年期高位，短期多套装置投产，下游国内开工处五年期低位，出口方面印度反倾销政策延期，雨季末期可能抢出口，成本端电石企稳但难支撑估值；整体供强需弱且高估值，基本面差，需观察后续出口能否扭转国内累库格局，短期跟随黑色情绪反复，建议观望 [11] Styrene - 现货价格上涨，期货价格上涨，基差走弱；市场宏观情绪好，成本端有支撑，目前BZN价差处同期较低水平，向上修复空间大；成本端纯苯开工小幅回落但供应量偏多，供应端乙苯脱氢利润上涨，苯乙烯开工持续上行；苯乙烯港口库存持续大幅去库，季节性淡季需求端三S整体开工率震荡下降 [13][14] - 短期BZN或将修复，待港口库存高位去化后，苯乙烯价格或将跟随成本端震荡上行 [14] - 基本面方面，成本端华东纯苯6180元/吨，上涨20元/吨；苯乙烯现货7375元/吨，上涨50元/吨；苯乙烯活跃合约收盘价7322元/吨，上涨72元/吨；基差53元/吨，走弱22元/吨；BZN价差182元/吨，上涨5.5元/吨；EB非一体化装置利润 - 443.7元/吨，上涨54.2元/吨；EB连1 - 连2价差69元/吨，缩小19元/吨；供应端上游开工率77.7%，下降1.20%；江苏港口库存15.90万吨，去库0.50万吨；需求端三S加权开工率39.09%，下降0.85%；PS开工率55.00%，上涨1.70%，EPS开工率43.67%，下降10.58%，ABS开工率71.10%，上涨5.20% [14] Polyolefins Polyethylene - 期货价格上涨，市场期待中国财政部三季度利好政策，成本端有支撑，聚乙烯现货价格上涨，PE估值向下空间有限；贸易商库存高位震荡，对价格支撑松动，季节性淡季需求端农膜订单低位震荡，整体开工率震荡下行 [16] - 短期矛盾从成本端主导下跌行情转移至高检修助推库存去化，8月产能投放压力大，有110万吨产能投放计划，聚乙烯价格短期内由成本端及供应端博弈 [16] - 基本面看主力合约收盘价7329元/吨，上涨15元/吨，现货7300元/吨，上涨15元/吨，基差 - 29元/吨，无变动；上游开工83.44%，环比下降1.50%；周度库存方面，生产企业库存51.54万吨，环比累库8.26万吨，贸易商库存6.12万吨，环比累库0.34万吨；下游平均开工率38.9%，环比上涨0.16%；LL9 - 1价差 - 60元/吨，环比缩小10元/吨，建议空单继续持有 [16] Polypropylene - 期货价格下跌，山东地炼利润止跌反弹，开工率或将回升，丙烯供应边际回归；需求端下游开工率季节性震荡下行；8月聚丙烯仅存45万吨计划产能投放，季节性淡季供需双弱，成本端或将主导行情，预计7月聚丙烯价格跟随原油震荡偏强 [17] - 基本面看主力合约收盘价7091元/吨，下跌4元/吨，现货7110元/吨，无变动，基差19元/吨，走强4元/吨；上游开工78.22%，环比上涨0.56%；周度库存方面，生产企业库存58.71万吨，环比累库2.23万吨，贸易商库存18.73万吨，环比累库1.4万吨，港口库存6.11万吨，环比去库0.13万吨；下游平均开工率48.5%，环比上涨0.1%；LL - PP价差238元/吨，环比扩大19元/吨 [17] PX, PTA, and MEG PX - PX09合约上涨54元，报6832元，PX CFR下跌1美元，报834美元，按人民币中间价折算基差33元（ - 61），9 - 1价差84元（ + 18） [19] - PX负荷上，中国负荷82%，环比上升0.9%；亚洲负荷73.6%，环比上升0.2%；装置方面，盛虹、扬子石化负荷提升，威联石化重启，海外日本出光20万吨装置重启，韩国hanwha113万吨装置停车，SK40万吨装置重启 [19] - PTA负荷74.7%，环比上升2.1%，装置方面，台化装置一套重启一套停车，嘉兴石化重启，逸盛新材负荷恢复，英力士降负荷，威联石化重启 [19][21] - 进口方面，8月上旬韩国PX出口中国11.2万吨，同比下降0.5万吨；库存方面，6月底库存413.8万吨，月环比下降21万吨；估值成本方面，PXN为267美元（ + 6），石脑油裂差79美元（ - 5） [19][20] - PX负荷维持高位，下游PTA短期检修增加，整体负荷中枢下降，但因PTA新装置投产，PX有望持续去库，估值下方有支撑，但上方空间短期受限，终端及聚酯较弱压制上游估值；估值目前中性，关注旺季来临后跟随原油逢低做多机会 [20] PTA - PTA09合约上涨20元，报4726元，华东现货上涨5元，报4705元，基差 - 13元（ - 1），9 - 1价差 - 34元（ - 8） [21] - PTA负荷74.7%，环比上升2.1%，装置情况如上述；下游负荷88.8%，环比上升0.7%，装置整体变动小，部分化纤装置开工率适度提升；终端加弹负荷持平至70%，织机负荷下降2%至59% [21] - 库存方面，8月1日社会库存（除信用仓单）224万吨，环比累库3.5万吨；估值和成本方面，PTA现货加工费上涨9元，至201元，盘面加工费下跌16元，至244元 [21] - 供给端8月检修量增加但有新装置投产，预期持续累库，PTA加工费运行空间有限；需求端聚酯化纤库存压力下降，下游及终端即将结束淡季，需等待订单好转；估值方面，PXN在PTA投产格局改善下有支撑向上动力，但受终端和聚酯较弱景气度影响难走扩，关注旺季下游表现好转后跟随PX逢低做多机会 [21] MEG - EG09合约上涨18元，报4432元，华东现货上涨18元，报4502元，基差76元（ + 2），9 - 1价差 - 46元（ - 3） [22] - 供给端，乙二醇负荷68.4%，环比下降0.2%，其中合成气制75.1%，环比上升1.1%；乙烯制负荷64.4%，环比下降1%；合成气制装置方面，通辽金煤重启，山西沃能检修；油化工方面，三江负荷提升，浙石化负荷下降；海外方面，马来西亚装置、沙特sharq3停车 [22] - 下游负荷88.8%，环比上升0.7%，装置整体变动小，部分化纤装置开工率适度提升；终端加弹负荷持平至70%，织机负荷下降2%至59% [22] - 进口到港预报14.1万吨，华东出港8月11日0.86万吨，出库下降；港口库存55.3万吨，累库3.7万吨；估值和成本上，石脑油制利润为 - 299元，国内乙烯制利润 - 584元，煤制利润1051元；成本端乙烯持平至820美元，榆林坑口烟煤末价格下跌至520元 [22] - 产业基本面上，海内外检修装置逐渐开启，下游开工将从淡季恢复但高度偏低，预期港口库存去化放缓；估值同比偏高，检修季结束，基本面由强转弱，短期估值有下降压力 [22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is a recommendation for Hongfa Technology (600885.SH) based on its strong financial performance and growth prospects [2] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 8.347 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 964 million yuan, up 14.19% year-on-year [2] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.346 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.51%, and a net profit of 553 million yuan, reflecting a 13.25% year-on-year growth [2] Group 2 - The gross profit margin for Q2 2025 was 34.67%, showing a slight increase of 0.03 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 16.82%, up 0.01 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company is continuously improving operational efficiency and advancing research and development [2] - There is a positive demand trend in the downstream markets for relays, and the company is making progress in new categories with frequent positive news [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market cooled yesterday, and the prices of finished products continued to fluctuate. The majority of FOMC voters this year are more inclined to delay interest rate cuts until after July, and attention should be paid to the impact of interest rates on the global environment. China's manufacturing PMI has slightly increased, and the economy is showing positive signs. The off - season demand remains weak, and the inventories are at relatively healthy levels. There are no obvious contradictions in the static fundamentals. Future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Politburo meeting in July, the recovery of terminal demand, and the cost - side support for finished product prices [3]. - Although the "Israel - Iran conflict" has eased and crude oil prices have fallen, the sentiment in the domestic commodity market, especially the black sector, has not significantly declined. In the short term, the improvement in sentiment continues, but from a fundamental perspective, the industry still faces an oversupply situation, future demand is expected to weaken, and there is room for cost reduction, so the downward pressure on prices remains [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3003 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.200%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 6393 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 48103 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3136 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.416%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 586 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 3081 lots [2]. - **Spot Market**: The aggregated rebar price in Tianjin was 3150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Lecong remained unchanged at 3180 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it was also unchanged at 3200 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The apparent demand for rebar was basically the same as last week, and the increase in production slowed down the de - stocking pace. The production of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, and the inventory started to accumulate slightly. Overall, the off - season demand remained weak, and the inventories were at relatively healthy levels [3]. Iron Ore - **Futures Market**: The main contract (I2509) of iron ore closed at 708.50 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.98% (-7.00), and the positions decreased by 13897 lots to 65.49 million lots. The weighted positions were 107.50 million lots [5]. - **Spot Market**: The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 705 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 37.93 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.08% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The recent iron ore shipments decreased, and the near - term arrivals also declined. The daily average pig iron production was 242.29 tons. The terminal demand for five major steel products decreased slightly. The port throughput and port inventory increased, while the steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased slightly. In the short term, iron ore prices will fluctuate widely [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: On July 1, the main contract (SM509) of manganese silicon continued to decline in a narrow range, closing down 0.32% at 5624 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 166 yuan/ton over the futures price. In the short term, it may continue to fluctuate or rebound slightly, but there is still a risk of price decline [8][10]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract (SF509) of ferrosilicon gapped down and broke the upward trend since June, closing down 1.38% at 5270 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5350 yuan/ton, with a premium of 80 yuan/ton over the futures price. In the short term, its trend has weakened again, and there is a risk of further price decline [8][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On July 1, affected by rumors of production resumption, the main contract (SI2509) of industrial silicon closed down 3.66% at 7765 yuan/ton [14]. - **Spot Market**: The price of 553 non - oxygenated industrial silicon in East China was 8200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 435 yuan/ton over the futures main contract. The price of 421 was 8800 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged, with a premium of 235 yuan/ton over the futures main contract [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The industrial silicon market is still facing over - supply and insufficient demand. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see rather than blindly buy at the bottom. During the price rebound, it is advisable to hedge at an appropriate position [14][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe was 1130 yuan, up 4 yuan from the previous day, and in Central China, it was 1030 yuan, remaining unchanged. As of June 26, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.216 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 0.671 million heavy boxes (-0.96%) from the previous period, and an increase of 12.39% year - on - year. It is expected that the futures price will be weak in the medium term [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was 1190 yuan, down 10 yuan from the previous day. As of June 30, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7688 million tons, an increase of 0.0019 million tons (0.11%) from Thursday. The demand for soda ash continued to decline. Although the supply - demand margin improved slightly, the medium - term supply was still loose, and the inventory pressure was large. It is expected that the futures price will be weak [17].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the black building materials market, covering steel, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, industrial silicon, glass, and soda ash [1][2][3] - The overall sentiment in the black building materials market has improved recently, but the fundamentals still point downward in the long - term [3][10] - Attention should be paid to policy trends, actual demand recovery, and cost support in the future [3] Group 2: Steel Price and Position - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 2995 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (0.739%) from the previous trading day. The position decreased by 48966 lots to 2.142812 million lots. The Tianjin spot price was flat at 3160 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3080 yuan/ton [2] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3121 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (0.580%). The position increased by 14041 lots to 1.52471 million lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai increased by 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [2] Market Analysis - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was good last week, and the prices of finished products continued to fluctuate. The special treasury bond funds for equipment renewal will still boost the demand for machinery, but the intensity may decrease compared with the first half of the year [3] - The apparent demand for rebar was basically the same as last week, and the inventory reduction slowed down due to the increase in production. The production of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, and the inventory accumulated slightly [3] - The demand in the off - season remained weak, and the inventory was at a relatively healthy level. There was no obvious contradiction in the static fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies, the policy trends of the Politburo meeting in July, the recovery rhythm of terminal demand, and the cost support for product prices [3] Group 3: Iron Ore Price and Position - The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 716.50 yuan/ton, up 1.56% (+11.00), and the position increased by 25675 lots to 679,900 lots. The weighted position was 1.0966 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 708 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 33.24 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.43% [5] Supply and Demand - The recent iron ore shipment volume increased, with a significant increase in Brazil's end - of - season rush and a slight increase in Australia's shipment. The shipment volume from non - mainstream countries decreased significantly. The near - end arrival volume remained at a relatively high level [6] - The daily average hot metal production was 242.29 tons. There were both blast furnace maintenance and复产, which were normal operations. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased slightly, and the overall demand was neutral [6] - The port dredging volume and port inventory both increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory decreased slightly. The hot metal production remained stable, and the weak performance of ore prices was mainly reflected in the continuous narrowing of the basis. The single - sided absolute price fluctuated in a low - volatility range [6] Group 4: Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Price and Trend - On June 27, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.11% at 5670 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5620 yuan/ton, with a premium of 140 yuan/ton over the futures [8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 0.26% at 5370 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5470 yuan/ton, with a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the futures [8] - The manganese silicon price continued to rebound slightly this week, with a weekly increase of 56 yuan/ton or 1.00%. It broke away from the downward trend line since February, but the strength was weak. Attention should be paid to the resistance around 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton [9] - The ferrosilicon price also continued to rebound this week, with a weekly increase of 66 yuan/ton or 1.24%. It was approaching the downward trend line since February and encountered resistance at the upper level. Attention should be paid to the resistance around 5500 yuan/ton [9] Market Outlook - Although the short - term market sentiment has pushed up the prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the fundamentals still point downward, with an oversupply pattern, weakening future demand, and potential cost reduction [10][11] - It is not recommended to buy at the bottom prematurely due to the "low valuation". Instead, pay attention to the downward risk and seize hedging opportunities [10][11] Group 5: Industrial Silicon Price and Trend - On June 27, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed up 3.82% at 8025 yuan/ton. The spot price of 553 in East China was 8100 yuan/ton, with a premium of 70 yuan/ton over the futures, and the 421 price was 8700 yuan/ton, with a discount of 130 yuan/ton after conversion [13] - This week, the industrial silicon price rebounded significantly, with a weekly increase of 625 yuan/ton or 8.45%. It was still in the downward trend since November 2024, and the short - term rebound continued. Attention should be paid to the resistance around 8200 yuan/ton [13] Market Outlook - The market sentiment has improved, and funds are looking for low - priced and "story - telling" varieties. However, the current market heat is lower than that in April 2024 [14] - The industrial silicon market still faces the problems of oversupply and insufficient demand. The short - term price rebound is due to the rumor of a large factory's production cut, but the supply reduction is difficult to maintain in the long - term. Hedging opportunities can be seized during the rebound [14] Group 6: Glass and Soda Ash Glass - The spot price in Shahe was 1130 yuan, flat, and the price in Central China was 1030 yuan, also flat. The spot sales were okay, and some production lines were restarted [16] - As of June 26, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.216 million weight boxes, down 0.96% from the previous period, and the inventory days decreased by 0.3 days to 30.5 days. The net position was mainly shifted between near - and far - month contracts. The real estate demand was not expected to be significantly boosted, and the futures price was expected to be weak [16] Soda Ash - The spot price increased by 13 yuan to 1223 yuan, and the enterprise prices were basically unchanged. The number of maintenance enterprises was small [16] - As of June 26, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7669 million tons, up 0.63%. The demand for soda ash continued to decline, and the supply - demand relationship improved marginally. The medium - term supply was loose, and the inventory pressure was still large. The futures price was expected to be weak [16]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★★★ [1] - Coking Coal: No rating provided [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Ferroalloy: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The overall demand for steel is weak, the market sentiment is cautious, and the futures market is under pressure [2] - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate [3] - Coke and coking coal prices may have upward drivers, but are affected by factors such as oil prices [4][6] - The fundamentals of silicon manganese have limited improvement, and the market temporarily expects a short - term rise [7] - The demand for silicon ferroalloy is acceptable, and the market temporarily expects a short - term rise [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The futures market is weakly volatile. The demand for thread in the off - season is under pressure, the production has increased, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled coil is resilient, the production remains high, and the inventory has decreased [2] - The blast furnace still has profits, and the molten iron production remains relatively high. However, the off - season carrying capacity is insufficient, and the negative feedback expectation still ferments repeatedly [2] - The downstream demand is weak, the demand expectation is pessimistic, and the market is cautious. Pay attention to terminal demand and policy changes [2] Iron Ore - The global shipment of iron ore is at a high level, and there is an expectation of a year - end rush. The port inventory in China has begun to stabilize and increase, and the supply pressure has increased marginally [3] - In the off - season, the terminal demand has resilience, the steel mill profitability rate has improved, the molten iron production remains high, and the steel mills have weak willingness to actively reduce production and have short - term replenishment actions [3] - The short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the trend is expected to be volatile [3] Coke - The price has risen significantly during the day, and there is an expectation of a price increase in the market [4] - The daily production of molten iron has increased slightly to 242.18 tons per day. The coke profit is meager, and the daily production of coking has continued to decline from the annual high [4] - The overall coke inventory has decreased, and the purchasing willingness of traders is still low. The coke price is affected by oil price fluctuations, and there may be an upward driver [4] Coking Coal - The price has risen significantly during the day. Policy may strengthen the control of over - production, which may affect production [6] - The production of coking coal mines has continued to decline. Due to the safety production month and environmental inspections, some mines have reduced production [6] - The spot auction market has improved slightly, the transaction price has risen slightly, and the terminal inventory has continued to decline. The coking coal price is affected by the sharp decline in oil prices and may be strongly volatile [6] Silicon Manganese - The price volatility has increased during the day. Due to previous continuous production cuts, the inventory level has decreased, but the weekly production has begun to increase, and the fundamentals have limited improvement [7] - Pay attention to the August forward price of South32 to China. In the short term, the manganese ore inventory is low, and the price of Comilog oxidized ore has risen slightly [7] - The trading logic of the futures market changes rapidly, and it is temporarily bullish in the short term [7] Silicon Ferroalloy - The price has fluctuated upward during the day. The molten iron production has risen above 242, the export demand is about 30,000 tons, and the marginal impact is small [8] - The production of magnesium metal has increased month - on - month, the secondary demand remains high, and the overall demand is acceptable [8] - The supply of silicon ferroalloy has continued to decline, the market transaction level is average, and the inventory has decreased. Some production is in cash - flow loss, which is conducive to inventory reduction, and it is temporarily bullish in the short term [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for each commodity: - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating [9] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [10] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [11] - **Hogs**: Oscillating, with a long - term downward trend [12] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [15] - **Cotton**: Oscillating weakly in the short - term [16] - **Sugar**: Oscillating weakly in the long - term, with a short - term rebound [18] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [19] - **Logs**: Oscillating weakly [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural commodities, including their current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and future outlooks. Overall, most commodities are expected to show oscillating trends, with some facing supply pressures and others influenced by seasonal factors and policy changes. For example, hogs are expected to face increasing supply pressure in the second half of the year, while oils and fats may return to range - bound trading [12][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: SPPOMA data shows that from June 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.5% month - on - month, and from June 1 - 15, it decreased by 4% month - on - month. Shipping agencies expect Malaysian palm oil exports from June 1 - 20 to increase by 10% - 17% month - on - month [9]. - **Logic**: Due to profit - taking and favorable weather in the US soybean growing areas, US soybeans and soybean oil fell last Friday. Domestically, oils and fats trended weakly. The EPA proposal's bullish sentiment may have been released, and there are still uncertainties. US soybean planting is progressing well, and domestic soybean imports are large, with rising soybean oil inventories. Malaysian palm oil production growth in June is limited, and the export outlook is optimistic. Domestic rapeseed oil inventories are high but slowly declining [9]. - **Outlook**: The bullish impact of the EPA's biodiesel proposal may have been priced in. Given the good growth of US soybeans, normal weather, and the palm oil production season, oils and fats are likely to return to range - bound trading, with increased downward pressure recently [9]. Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On June 23, 2025, the average import soybean crushing profit in China was 76.65 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 24.87 yuan/ton or 24.5%, and a year - on - year increase of 155.24 yuan/ton or 288.98% [10]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the Rosario Grain Exchange raised Argentina's soybean production forecast by 3 million tons. The bullish sentiment from crude oil and the EPA has been released. US soybean planting and emergence are going well, with normal to slightly above - normal precipitation expected in the next two weeks. Freight costs are rising, and South American soybean premiums are increasing. Domestically, trading sentiment has declined, and the basis in East China has weakened. Soybean arrivals will increase in the next two months, and soybean meal inventories are seasonally rising, but there is no immediate pressure. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly, but there may be a supply shortage in the fourth quarter [10]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to trade in a range due to bullish factors and lower - than - expected good - quality rates. Domestically, soybean meal supply and demand are both increasing, and the price is expected to have a short - term correction. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices at low levels [10]. Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The domestic average corn price is 2422 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton [11]. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are stable with a slight increase. In North China, some deep - processing enterprises lowered their purchase prices due to increased arrivals, while other regions were stable to strong. Wheat harvesting is over, and traders are selling more corn. Corn feed inventories are decreasing, indicating weak replenishment demand. South Port inventories are temporarily increasing due to weather but are expected to decline. Imported grains are tightening, and inventory reduction is expected in the 24/25 season [11]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the expected supply - demand gap, the price is expected to oscillate, but attention should be paid to the potential negative impact of import auctions [11]. Hogs - **Industry Information**: On June 23, the price of Henan's externally - bred hogs was 14.72 yuan/kg, a 1.1% increase from the previous day. The closing price of the active hog futures contract was 13980 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase [12]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the proportion of large hogs for sale is increasing, and the average weight is decreasing. In the medium term, based on the increase in new - born piglets from January to May 2025, the number of hogs for sale is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, the production capacity remains high, and the inventory of breeding sows is increasing. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising is close to the break - even point. Demand is weak due to high temperatures, and hog weights are decreasing. In June, hog farmers started to reduce inventory, but there is resistance to low prices, and the selling rhythm is inconsistent. In the third quarter, there are expectations for peak consumption seasons. In the long term, the hog price is in a downward cycle [12]. - **Outlook**: As hog farmers reduce inventory and it is the off - season for consumption, the supply - demand balance is loose. If inventory reduction is sufficient, the supply pressure may ease, but the number of hogs for sale is expected to increase in the second half of the year [12]. Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: On June 23, the price of RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 13820 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan. The price of domestic whole - milk old rubber was 13950 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [13]. - **Logic**: Rubber prices oscillated within a range of about 200 yuan. Although the overall commodity market corrected, rubber prices were supported by raw materials. Most Asian rubber - producing areas are in the rainy season, and raw material prices have rebounded slightly. Supply is limited due to rain and the early stage of tapping. Some tire enterprises' production has recovered, and inventory pressure has eased slightly, but the demand outlook is still weak [13]. - **Outlook**: External events are currently the main factor affecting the market, and the duration is uncertain. Rubber prices may maintain a strong - side oscillation due to the low non - standard basis [13]. Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The spot price of butadiene rubber from two major suppliers in Shandong was 11750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [15]. - **Logic**: With the decline in oil prices and butadiene prices, the market trended weakly. The market is mainly influenced by crude oil and the chemical sector. The overall operating rate has dropped to the lowest level since May, but inventories have increased slightly, indicating weak downstream demand. Butadiene prices oscillated in a small range last week, with a slight increase in the average weekly price. Domestic production has increased slightly, and port inventories have risen, but downstream buying is cautious [15]. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical conflicts may last at least one week, and the market may be affected. Although the fundamental downward trend remains, the market may oscillate strongly in the short term [15]. Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of June 23, the number of registered cotton warehouse receipts in the 24/25 season was 10493. The closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 09 was 13465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [16]. - **Logic**: In the 25/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to increase, and other major producing countries such as India and Brazil also have production growth expectations. The US cotton production depends on the third - quarter weather. The downstream market has entered the off - season, with increasing textile inventories and slower production. Cotton commercial inventories have decreased faster than in previous years, and there are concerns about tight inventories at the end of the season, supporting the basis. However, the upward momentum is weak due to weak demand and new - crop production expectations [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, cotton prices are expected to oscillate between 13000 - 13800 yuan/ton. There may be opportunities for reverse spreads [16]. Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of June 23, the closing price of Zhengzhou Sugar 09 was 5721 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton [18]. - **Logic**: The sugar market fundamentals have not changed much. The external market has priced in the expected oversupply in the new season, and the prices of domestic and foreign futures have declined. The Brazilian real has strengthened against the US dollar, and strong crude oil prices support the sugar price. Domestically, the 24/25 sugar production season has ended, and the sales rate is high, with lower inventories than last year. However, there are expectations of concentrated sugar imports. Internationally, Brazil, India, and Thailand are expected to increase production in the new season [18]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, due to the expected oversupply in the new season, sugar prices are expected to decline. In the short term, there may be a rebound [18]. Pulp - **Industry Information**: According to Longzhong Information, the previous trading day, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5300 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; the price of Marubeni was 5700 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; and the price of Arauco was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged [19]. - **Logic**: Pulp futures prices rose significantly yesterday, especially for far - month contracts, mainly due to the suspension of new warehouse receipts for bleached needle - leaf pulp. However, the spot market followed the increase only slightly. Fundamentally, pulp imports remain high, and prices are still falling. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream paper enterprises' inventories are increasing, with weak procurement demand. The US dollar price is decreasing, and the current price is not attractive for large - scale inventory building. Although the reduction in deliverable varieties may support the futures price, the supply - demand situation is still loose [19]. - **Outlook**: Due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and the impact of changes in deliverable rules, pulp futures are expected to oscillate. The reasonable valuation range for the 09 contract is 5200 - 5500 yuan/ton [19]. Logs - **Industry Information**: The spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu is 760 yuan/cubic meter, and in Shandong, it is 750 yuan/cubic meter [20]. - **Logic**: The log futures market has provided risk - free arbitrage opportunities, leading to increased purchases by arbitrageurs and stronger reluctance to sell among traders, driving up spot prices. The market is currently focused on the delivery logic. Near - month contracts are stable due to delivery support, while far - month contracts are returning to fundamentals. The trading volume of the 2507 contract is increasing, and the ratio of virtual to real positions is high, leading to increased volatility [20]. - **Outlook**: The supply pressure of logs is expected to ease at the end of June or early July. The demand is in the off - season from June to August. Although the spot price is supported by the clearance of old stocks, the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [20].