尽管A股市场整体表现疲软，资金却展现出逆势布局的态势，股票型ETF"越跌越买"。 11月21日市场单边下挫，上证指数收盘跌2.45%报3834.89点，深证成指跌3.41%，创业板指跌4.02%，市场成交额1.98万亿元。 Wind数据显示，11月21日当日，全市场1263只可统计的股票型ETF净流入金额高达407.55亿元。其中，沪深300ETF、中证500ETF净流入额超30亿元；创业 板ETF、科创50ETF、中证1000ETF资金净流入额超20亿元；上证指数ETF、证券ETF、中证1000ETF净流入额超10亿元。 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 本周资金净流入(亿元) | 管理人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 510500 | 中证500ETF | 57.78 | 南方基金 | | 159915 | 创业板ETF | 46.78 | 易方达基金 | | 510300 | 沪深300ETF | 44.62 | 华泰柏瑞基金 | | 588000 | 科创50ETF | 34.80 | 华夏事ぞ | | 513180 | 恒生科技指数ETF | 30.99 | 华夏基金 | ...

近期海外流动性宽松预期下降叠加科技泡沫担忧等因素引发市场震动，但长期来看，A股市场仍具备政 策、资金、产业等多重优势，有望修复向上。展望2026年，中金公司表示，中国股票继续受益于AI科 技浪潮与流动性宽裕，估值合理，虽然可能年末波动增大，但尚未看到牛市顶部信号，建议维持超配， 内部风格更均衡。 新一代核心宽基A500ETF基金（512050）助力投资者布局A股核心资产、高效捕捉市场增长红利。该 ETF精准跟踪中证A500指数，指数采用"行业均衡配置+龙头优选"双策略，涵盖A股行业龙头，兼顾价 值与成长，实现对各细分领域的均衡配置。超配AI产业链、医药生物、电网设备新能源、医药等新质 生产力赛道，形成天然哑铃型投资结构。该基金具备三大核心亮点：费率低廉（综合费率0.2%），流 动性充裕（近一月日均成交超50亿元），规模领先（超190亿元），是把握A股估值提升机遇的高效投 资选择。场外联接（A类：022430；C类：022431）。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 11月21日，受外盘情绪扰动，A股低开调整，同类最活跃A500ETF基金（512050）跳空低开盘中跌超 2%，午后有所修复，截至13点44分，跌1.8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market and gold are expected to maintain an upward trend in 2026, driven by the AI technology wave and macroeconomic factors, despite potential risks from liquidity and policy changes [1][2]. Group 1: Chinese Stock Market Analysis - The Chinese stock market experiences more frequent cycles of upward and downward movements compared to the US market, making the identification of market tops more critical [1]. - Current economic conditions indicate that China is in a recovery phase with low inflation and stable growth, suggesting no immediate need for policy tightening [1]. - The profitability growth of the CSI 300 index is recovering from low levels, with a forward P/E ratio of 12.6, which is below historical market peak valuations [1]. - Concerns about liquidity are present, but there are no clear signals indicating a market peak based on economic and policy factors [1]. Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - Gold's market top is easier to predict than that of stocks, largely due to its strong correlation with Federal Reserve policies [2]. - The outlook for gold in 2026 will depend on four key factors: economic growth shifts, tightening policies, high valuations, and geopolitical shocks [2][4]. - Long-term trends suggest a structural increase in gold valuations due to declining dollar credibility and geopolitical uncertainties, with potential for gold prices to exceed $5,000 per ounce if current trends continue [4]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Recommendations - The company recommends an overweight position in Chinese stocks and gold for the first half of 2026, while maintaining standard allocations in US stocks and bonds, and adjusting commodities to standard allocation [4]. - The macro liquidity environment is expected to remain generally loose, supporting the market, while the AI industry trend will continue to bolster A-shares [4]. - For bonds, the risk-reward ratio is declining relative to other assets, suggesting a downgrade from standard to low allocation, focusing on short to medium duration, high coupon varieties [5].

每日研选 2025年，中国股市在AI科技浪潮的主导下于震荡中前行，黄金也成为令人瞩目的资产。时间即将步入2026年，未来中国股市与黄金的上涨势头能否延 续？美股、中债等其他大类资产该如何配置？ 中金公司认为，相较美股而言，中国股市上行与下行周期切换相对频繁，因此判断市场顶部的重要性更高。中金公司通过经济、政策、宏观流动性、盈利 与估值水平五个维度总结中国股票的顶部规律，发现经济与政策信号较为准确；而流动性、盈利与估值信号指引效果有限。当经济进入类滞胀或放缓阶 段，或宏观、监管、产业政策收紧时，往往预示市场顶部。 11.18 2025 星期二 解 锁 市 场 最 强 音 , 把 握 投 资 机 会 ! 2025年,中国股市在AI科技浪 潮的主导下于震荡中前行,黄 金也成为令人瞩目的资产。时 间即将步入2026年,未来中国 股市与黄金的上涨势头能否延 续?美股、中债等其他大类资 产该如何配置? 育时会出现几个主要因素,例 的大量流动性活入和抽离,在 一定程度上掩盖了传统估值指 称对价格设定的作用，这种情 对于本轮行情，中金公司基于上述5个维度信号作出以下判断：我国经济仍处在复苏阶段，通胀偏低，增长平稳，暂时看不到 ...

Core Insights - The news highlights significant developments in various companies and industries, including stock trading suspensions, major asset restructurings, and regulatory reforms in the cosmetics sector. Company News - Pingtan Development announced a stock price increase of 255.19% from October 17 to November 17, leading to a trading suspension for verification due to significant deviation from the company's fundamentals [6] - Haixia Innovation's stock rose by 185.89% during the same period, prompting a similar trading suspension for verification [6] - Zhu Min Group plans to sell 100% equity of its Gree Real Estate to Tuo Jie Holdings for 5.518 billion yuan, marking a significant asset restructuring to focus on its core duty-free business [7] - Yaxing Chemical disclosed a plan to acquire 100% of Shandong Tianyi Chemical, introducing new fine chemical products and marking a major asset restructuring [8] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China announced the full redemption of 900 billion yuan in 10-year subordinated bonds, exercising its redemption option [8] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) reported a planned transfer of 45.6324 million shares by shareholder Huang Shilin at a price of 376.12 yuan per share, representing a 3.75% discount [8] - Xiaopeng Motors reported Q3 revenue of 20.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.8%, with a narrowed net loss of 380 million yuan [8] - Jiarong Technology is planning to acquire all shares of Hangzhou Lanran Technology, which may constitute a major asset restructuring [8] Industry News - The National Medical Products Administration released guidelines for cosmetic regulation reform, aiming for a more robust regulatory framework by 2030 and achieving international standards by 2035 [1] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported that in October, banks settled 1.5194 trillion yuan and sold 1.394 trillion yuan, with cumulative settlements of 14.7941 trillion yuan and sales of 14.2201 trillion yuan from January to October [2] - The Ministry of Finance reported a 29.5% year-on-year increase in stamp duty revenue, with securities transaction stamp duty rising by 88.1% [3] - A joint notice from the Ministry of Commerce and other departments outlined plans for the silk industry, targeting the establishment of leading enterprises and a modern industrial system by 2028 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The current market adjustment is characterized by a lack of a clear leading sector, with technology stocks facing short-term valuation concerns while cyclical sectors are hindered by mid-term uncertainties [3][4][5]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated around the 4000-point mark, closing at 3972.03 points on November 17, down 0.46%, with total trading volume at 1.91 trillion yuan, a decrease of 473 billion yuan from the previous trading day [3][5]. - Margin trading balances fell below 2.5 trillion yuan, with a total of 2.49 trillion yuan on November 14, marking a reduction of over 100 billion yuan from the previous day [5][6]. Sector Analysis - Technology stocks, which had previously seen significant gains, experienced a pullback, while sectors such as textiles, retail, and pharmaceuticals performed well [5][6]. - On November 17, there was a net outflow exceeding 4 billion yuan from solar equipment and semiconductor sectors, while energy metals and military sectors saw gains [6][7]. Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest that the market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with a shift in driving forces from liquidity to fundamentals, indicating a slower upward pace [10][13]. - Investment strategies should focus on technology innovation, consumption recovery, and high-dividend defensive stocks, with an emphasis on AI-related opportunities and stable cash flow sectors like utilities and banks [10][13]. Long-term Outlook - The overall sentiment remains optimistic about a "slow bull" market, with no signs of a market top detected, and a potential for structural rebalancing within the market [9][10]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes risk management and structural reforms, while the "15th Five-Year Plan" focuses on proactive economic growth, which is expected to support the market's long-term trajectory [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - The current gold bull market is likely not over, as its price increase and duration are still below historical comparisons from the 1970s and 2000s [1] Gold Market Insights - The continuation of the gold bull market is contingent on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the U.S. economy not entering a strong recovery phase characterized by "declining inflation and rising growth" [1] - There is a possibility that gold prices could exceed $5,000 per ounce next year if current trends persist [1] - Despite a clear bull market logic, gold is currently considered overvalued, suggesting a strategy of increasing allocation during dips rather than chasing prices [1] Stock Market Insights - Chinese stocks are expected to benefit from the AI technology wave and ample liquidity, with reasonable valuations [1] - Although year-end volatility may increase, there are no signals indicating a market top, thus maintaining an overweight position is recommended [1] - The U.S. stock market also has a bullish outlook, but concerns about high valuations and low elasticity during the dollar depreciation cycle suggest a neutral allocation [2] Fixed Income Insights - Chinese interest rates have room to decline, but the current valuation of Chinese bonds is high, limiting upside potential, leading to a recommendation for underweighting [2] - U.S. Treasuries benefit from the Fed's easing cycle but face mid-term inflation and debt risks, resulting in a neutral allocation recommendation [2] Market Top Indicators - The analysis of market tops for Chinese stocks and gold highlights the importance of economic and policy signals, with economic slowdowns or tightening policies often indicating market tops [4][5] - The difficulty in accurately timing market tops is noted, particularly due to the close timing of economic and market turning points [4] 2026 Market Outlook Factors - Four key factors that could alter the bullish trends for stocks and gold in 2026 include unexpected growth shifts, tightening policies, high valuations, and geopolitical shocks [6][7][8] - Current data does not support a significant improvement in economic growth for China and the U.S., suggesting that the bullish trends for stocks and gold are likely to continue [8] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommendation is to overweight Chinese stocks and gold, maintain a neutral position in U.S. stocks and bonds, and adjust commodity allocations to neutral [9] - The strategy emphasizes the importance of being prepared for potential market trend changes by increasing commodity allocations [9]

Market Overview - The market opened lower and experienced fluctuations, with the ChiNext Index leading the decline. As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3973.31 points, down 0.43%, with a trading volume of 532 billion; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13169.37 points, down 0.35%, with a trading volume of 733.7 billion; the ChiNext Index was at 3086.67 points, down 0.80%, with a trading volume of 327.8 billion [1]. Sector Performance - Energy metals, military equipment, and AI applications sectors saw the largest gains, while precious metals and pharmaceuticals experienced the most significant declines [2]. Market Hotspots - The Fujian sector saw a resurgence, with companies like Xiamen Construction and Pingtan Development hitting the daily limit. The AI application concept gained momentum, with multiple stocks like 360 also reaching the daily limit. The military industry maintained its strength, with Aerospace Development achieving two consecutive limits. The lithium mining concept was active, with Dazhong Mining hitting three consecutive limits. In contrast, pharmaceutical stocks showed divergence, with Jimin Health and Yaoyigou declining [3]. Institutional Insights - According to China Merchants Securities, domestic financial indicators are declining, which may weaken the macro liquidity-driven logic, but this does not indicate the end of the market. The market is expected to continue showing rotation between technology and cyclical sectors. Internationally, market risk appetite will depend on economic data backlog due to government shutdowns and statements from the Federal Reserve and Trump. A signal is needed to reduce uncertainty in expectations [4]. - Rongzhi Investment noted that recent market adjustment pressure mainly stems from the technology innovation sector, influenced by internal factors like profit-taking and increasing bearish sentiment on the AI bubble. Despite this, the resilience of large financial and cyclical sectors suggests a strong oscillating market. The consensus among investors is that the bull market has not peaked, with low-risk interest rates and ample liquidity supporting high-yield blue-chip stocks. The focus should be on industry and stock selection rather than short-term index fluctuations [5]. - CICC stated that Chinese stocks continue to benefit from the AI technology wave and ample liquidity, with reasonable valuations. Although year-end volatility may increase, no signals of a bull market peak have been observed, suggesting an overweight position. The same bullish logic applies to U.S. stocks, but concerns over high valuations and low elasticity during the dollar depreciation cycle warrant a neutral position. Commodity investments are recommended to hedge against risks and benefit from liquidity recovery [6]. Financing Data - The financing balance of the two markets decreased by 13.4 billion. As of November 14, the Shanghai Stock Exchange's financing balance was 1253.18 billion, down 5.428 billion from the previous trading day; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's financing balance was 1213.681 billion, down 7.972 billion from the previous trading day, totaling 2466.861 billion, a decrease of 13.4 billion [7]. Company News - Alibaba announced the public beta launch of its Qianwen App, marking its entry into the AI-to-C market and competing directly with ChatGPT [8]. - There were rumors about Xinkailai planning a backdoor listing via Keri Technology, which Keri Technology denied, clarifying that while they supply semiconductor components to Xinkailai, they also collaborate with other major semiconductor companies and have a full order book extending into next year [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - Chinese stocks are expected to benefit from the AI technology wave and ample liquidity, with reasonable valuations, despite potential year-end volatility. No signals of a bull market peak have been observed, and an overweight position is recommended [1] Summary by Category Chinese Stocks - The outlook for Chinese stocks remains positive due to the influence of AI technology and liquidity conditions, suggesting a continued overweight position [1] US Stocks - Similar bullish logic applies to US stocks; however, concerns about high valuations and low elasticity during the US dollar depreciation cycle suggest a neutral position is more appropriate [1] Interest Rates and Bonds - There is potential for further decline in the central interest rate in China, but the valuation of Chinese bonds is considered high, limiting upside potential, thus a lower allocation is advised [1] - US Treasury bonds are expected to benefit from the Federal Reserve's easing cycle, but face mid-term inflation and debt risks, leading to a neutral allocation recommendation [1] Commodities - Commodities are seen as a hedge against risks associated with changes in gold and stock trends, with a recommendation to adjust from underweight to neutral allocation [1] Gold - Gold is expected to benefit from the Federal Reserve's easing cycle and the restructuring of monetary order, but its valuation is considered high. An overweight position is recommended, with advice to avoid chasing prices and to increase allocation on dips [1]

Core Insights - The report from CICC highlights four key factors that could potentially alter the bullish trends of stocks and gold by 2026, including economic growth shifts, tightening policies, high valuations, and geopolitical shocks [1][2]. Group 1: Key Factors - **Economic Growth Shift**: Current weak recovery in China and a potential stagflation in the U.S. could change if policies lead to better-than-expected economic recovery, which may extend the stock bull market but negatively impact gold [1]. - **Tightening Policies**: Both China and the U.S. are currently in a loose policy environment. However, if the Federal Reserve slows down interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns, or if China's incremental policy pace slows, it could negatively affect both stock and gold bull markets [1]. - **High Valuations**: Chinese stocks are reasonably valued, but both gold and U.S. stocks are facing high valuation pressures, which could pose risks [1]. - **Geopolitical Shocks**: Unexpected geopolitical events could prolong the gold bull market but may adversely affect the stock bull market [1]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - **Asset Allocation**: The company recommends an overweight position in Chinese stocks and gold, a standard allocation in U.S. stocks and bonds, and an adjustment of commodities to standard allocation while reducing Chinese bonds to underweight [2][3]. - **Chinese Stocks**: Benefiting from the AI technology wave and ample liquidity, Chinese stocks are seen as having reasonable valuations. Despite potential year-end volatility, there are no signals indicating a market peak, thus maintaining an overweight position is advised [3]. - **U.S. Stocks**: While the bullish logic applies to U.S. stocks, concerns over high valuations and low elasticity during a dollar depreciation cycle suggest a standard allocation is more prudent [3]. - **Commodities**: Commodities are recommended to be adjusted to standard allocation as they can hedge against changes in gold and stock trends while benefiting from post-liquidity recovery [3]. - **Gold**: Gold is expected to benefit from the Federal Reserve's easing cycle and monetary order reconstruction, but due to high valuations, an overweight position is suggested with a focus on buying on dips rather than chasing prices [3].