关于报告的所有内容，请于公众『市场分析报告』阅读原文 《2026年美股展望，最值得关注的板块以及一些建议》 1. 连涨三年，结构分化明显 2023年至2025年10月底，美股连续三年大幅上涨，标普500指数累计涨幅78.2%，纳斯达克指数上涨126.7%。以苹果、微软、亚马逊、谷歌、Meta、特斯 拉、英伟达为代表的MAG7，市值在标普500总市值占比超30%，贡献2023年以来市值扩张的48%。科技投资带动美国经济形成鲜明的K型分化：上半年， 计算机设备和软件投资虽只占美国GDP不到5%，但拉动整体GDP增长近1个百分点；高收入群体资产扩张，2025年二季度美国前10%高收入者净资产占比 达63.0%，较2022年提升1.5个百分点，财富增速明显。 2. 科技泡沫担忧再现 5. 一些建议 建议2026年美股投资应兼顾流动性、基本面和行业结构，年中前继续把握科技领涨主线，年中后逐步增配顺周期板块。 目前美股市场的高度集中与历史2000年科技泡沫期相似。MAG7盈利增长支撑指数，但PE估值水平已接近1990年以来高点，股市泡沫、AI泡沫等关键词在 谷歌搜索热度也创下新高。2025年9月，美股杠杆交易余额与市值比 ...

Group 1 - The report anticipates that liquidity easing will continue until the first half of 2026, with a shift towards cyclical economic recovery in the second half of the year [2][5][67] - The current technology market is compared to the late 1990s, with a concentration in high-quality large-cap stocks, raising concerns about potential market bubble [4][28][47] - The K-shaped economic recovery is expected to persist in 2026, but the driving factors will be more balanced compared to previous years [5][58][67] Group 2 - The MAG7 companies (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, Tesla, Nvidia) represent over 30% of the S&P 500's total market capitalization and contributed nearly 50% of the market expansion since 2023 [3][11][14] - The report suggests focusing on profitable leading companies within the technology sector while gradually increasing exposure to cyclical sectors as the economy recovers [6][68][69] - It is noted that the capital expenditure (CAPEX) of MAG7 is at a historical high, but growth is expected to slow down in 2026 [59][66][67]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：华泰证券策略研究） 我们预期流动性宽松交易或延续至2026年上半年，下半年顺周期经济修复为新主线。在市场共识趋同、预期饱满的情况下，建议投资者适时减持受益于流 动性宽松的中小市值科技，聚焦有盈利兑现能力的头部公司，并逐渐增配顺周期板块。在去美元叙事持续演绎的长期逻辑下，建议全球分散布局。 连涨近三年，美股走到K型分化的关键路口 年初DeepSeek的横空出世和贸易摩擦导致头部科技股大跌后，美股很快重拾动能，科技主导的K型分化延续。截至2025年10月31日，股市上MAG7占标普 500总市值超30%，贡献2023年以来市值扩张的近50%；2025上半年，经济中占比不足5%的科技产业拉动GDP接近1个百分点的增长，财富继续分化。市场 已经处于高度趋同的共识和预期之下。 当前的科技行情接近1998年 当前科技行情主要集中在优质的大市值头部个股，这也是投资者对股市是否已经泡沫化有分歧的核心原因。2023年以来美股头部科技股EPS增长贡献股价 表现的55.2%。但如果仅观察1995年至1998年的标普500和彼时头部科技股，盈利贡献度与当前并无较大差别，直到".com"行情后期估值贡献才成主导 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75-4.00%, with plans to stop balance sheet reduction on December 1 and gradually replace maturing agency debt with short-term Treasury bonds. The Fed believes inflation, employment, and financial stability remain controllable, but there are significant internal disagreements regarding future rate cuts [1][5]. Economic Summary - The Fed continues to assess the coexistence of inflationary and employment risks, noting that both "dual risks" are easing. While inflation has upward risks, the overall trend remains manageable. The analysis indicates that commodity inflation is supported by tariffs but is likely one-time, housing service inflation is expected to decline, and other service inflation pressures are weak due to a soft labor market [3][4]. - Employment risks are present but marginal changes may have stabilized. Despite data gaps from government shutdowns, state-level unemployment claims and job vacancies provide decision-making references, showing stable employment conditions over the past month [3]. Policy Summary - The Fed has cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75-4.0%. There is increasing disagreement among committee members regarding future rate cuts, with some suggesting a pause to observe conditions. Powell likened the current situation to "driving in fog," suggesting a cautious approach [5]. - The Fed will stop balance sheet reduction on December 1, replacing maturing mortgage-backed securities with short-term Treasury bonds. Current bank reserves are nearing acceptable levels, and signs of tightening liquidity in the money market have emerged [5]. Forward-Looking Summary - The Fed's rate-cutting cycle is entering a phase of increased disagreement. In the short term, due to potential government shutdown impacts, a rate cut in December is likely. In the medium term, the policy rate may approach 3% by 2026, with expectations of 3-4 rate cuts before the end of 2026 [6]. - The ongoing investment wave in artificial intelligence and the K-shaped economic recovery are expected to continue, with inflation and employment risks remaining manageable for the foreseeable future [6]. Strategy Summary - Market expectations for rate cuts have shifted, with pricing for a December cut dropping from 23 basis points to 17 basis points, leading to a hawkish market sentiment. U.S. Treasury yields have risen across the board, with the 2-year yield up by 10.8 basis points to 3.60% and the 10-year yield up by 10.0 basis points to 4.098% [7][8]. - The U.S. dollar has strengthened slightly, with the dollar index rising by 0.56% to 99.22. The stock market remains stable, with mixed performances among major indices [8]. - In the medium to long term, the U.S. stock market may face increased volatility, transitioning from a phase driven by valuation and earnings to one driven by earnings growth amid heightened market fluctuations [8].

中新网10月25日电综合报道，当地时间10月22日，诺贝尔经济学奖得主保罗·克鲁格曼发文称，美国经 济处于反常状态，反复无常的政策制造了巨大不确定性，科研教育等关键领域的发展严重受阻。 克鲁格曼在美国订阅平台Substack上发文称，"眼下，美国经济在多个层面都处于一种反常状态。最直 接的问题是，政府停摆导致9月就业报告延期发布，政策制定者正处于'部分盲判'的状态。" 他表示，美国经济数据表面看起来尚可，若深入剖析会发现，诸多客观指标显示，美国经济已亮起红 灯。 他说，这种"反常"状态首先体现在经济的严重分化：人工智能领域蓬勃发展，其他领域却陷入停滞。其 次，经济在诸多方面呈现"冻结"状态：尽管目前尚未出现大规模裁员，但失业者或刚进入劳动力市场的 人却很难找到新工作。第三，尽管人工智能领域的投入推动了经济增长，但这种增长呈现"K型分化"， 中低收入消费者陷入困境的信号已十分明显。 在他看来，特朗普政府反复无常的政策制造了巨大的不确定性，这使得许多企业不愿进行投资。 克鲁格曼提到，他认识的所有经济学家皆在担忧美国经济可能陷入衰退。当前的AI热潮，令人不安地 联想到20世纪90年代的科技泡沫。先是一家次级汽车贷款 ...

不知道你们发现没有，现在聊起买房，那感觉跟三五年前完全是两码事了。 以前是闭眼冲，想着"今天不买，明天更贵"；现在是睁大眼睛反复掂量，琢磨"这房子我买了，真的适合住吗？"。 市场的风向，是真的变了。 如果你仔细观察，会发现眼下的二手房市场，被两个关键词牢牢占据：一个是"以价换量"，另一个是"K型分化"。 先说"以价换量"。 这四个字听起来有点专业，说白了就是：想卖房？不拿出点"诚意价"来，门儿都没有。 最新的市场数据很能说明问题。 根据机构统计，今年三季度全国重点城市的二手房成交量，比起二季度是有所回落的。为啥呢？一方面，七八月本来就是楼市的传统淡季，大家忙着避暑度 假，看房的心思自然淡了。 另一方面，各种松绑政策的"药效"过了劲，市场的真实反应——信心不足，就显露出来了。 但有意思的是，如果你跟去年同期比，成交量其实还是涨的。 这种"环比降、同比升"的拧巴状态，恰恰印证了市场正在"以价换量"的通道里艰难前行。背后的推动力是什么？是房价实实在在的下跌。数据显示，百城二 手房价格已经连续跌了快三年半了！ 9月份同比又跌了超过7%。房东们要想把房子换成现金，除了在价格上"割肉"，似乎没有更有效的办法了。 所以，" ...

Core Insights - Concerns about a potential bubble in the artificial intelligence sector have been raised, with estimates suggesting capital expenditures in AI could reach $3 trillion by 2028, benefiting a few major companies while low-income workers struggle in a weak labor market [2][3] Economic Disparities - Jerome Powell highlighted the significant economic activity generated by AI, noting that the benefits are disproportionately skewed towards the wealthy [3] - Approximately 70% of U.S. economic growth is driven by consumer spending, yet many households live paycheck to paycheck, indicating a K-shaped recovery where affluent consumers continue to spend on luxury goods while others cut back on essentials [3][4] - The current economic landscape shows a stark contrast, with major tech companies like Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, and Tesla accounting for over 30% of the S&P 500's total market capitalization [3][4] Labor Market Dynamics - Despite an overall GDP growth rate exceeding 1.5%, the economic recovery is uneven, with challenges for recent graduates and minorities in the job market [4] - The job market is characterized by low layoffs and stagnant job creation, with only 22,000 jobs added in August and an unemployment rate rising to 4.3% [4][5] - Powell indicated that while AI investments may support overall economic growth, they do little to assist the labor market, exacerbating inequality [4]

Core Viewpoint - Recent government policies aimed at stimulating the housing market have sparked widespread attention, with a notable example being Guangxi's financial subsidy of 120 million yuan for new home purchases from September 15 to October 31, 2023, raising questions about its effectiveness in reversing market trends [2] Group 1: Policy Signals - The government's approach has shifted from broad market stimulation to targeted support for genuine housing needs, moving away from high-leverage growth models [3] - The introduction of the 120 million yuan subsidy is seen as a temporary measure to support a sluggish market rather than a long-term solution [3] Group 2: Market Signals - A "K-shaped" market differentiation is emerging, where high-quality properties continue to appreciate while lower-quality, less desirable properties face declining values [6] - Data from August 2025 indicates that over 60% of new home prices in 70 major cities have decreased, with only a few cities experiencing slight increases [6] - For instance, in Q1 2025, new homes in Shenzhen's Nanshan area saw a 12% price increase, while a city in Northeast China experienced a 23.5% drop in second-hand home prices [6] Group 3: Changing Perspectives - A growing number of young people, such as a 00s generation individual from Yulin, are opting to rent rather than buy, reflecting a shift in attitudes towards homeownership as a necessity for marriage [4][8] - The average cost of a suitable wedding home in Yulin is around 800,000 yuan, with monthly mortgage payments significantly higher than rental costs, leading to a preference for renting [8] Group 4: Development Models - The traditional "sprawling" new city development model is becoming less viable, with a focus shifting towards optimizing existing land use and enhancing living quality [9] - The national residential land supply plan for 2025 indicates a 20% decrease in supply, particularly in second-tier cities, emphasizing the need for efficient land utilization [9]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the apparel industry Core Insights - The report highlights the growing popularity of loose-fitting pants over leggings, with market share for leggings expected to drop from 46.9% in 2022 to 38.7% by 2025, while loose pants gain traction [2] - Domestic watch brands like Seagull are experiencing significant sales growth in overseas markets, with a 95.63% increase during Black Friday promotions, driven by their high cost-performance ratio [1] - Luxury brands are increasingly entering the beauty market, with LVMH's perfume and cosmetics division generating €4 billion in revenue, accounting for 10% of the group's sales [4] Industry Trends - The trend of "de-streetification" is emerging among traditional streetwear brands, as they seek to elevate their image through quality and positioning, with brands like KITH and NOAH leading this transformation [3] - The luxury sector faces challenges in marketing, particularly during events like Qixi Festival, where brands struggle with cultural misinterpretation and market saturation [3] - The sportswear market is diversifying, with brands balancing the functionality of leggings with the comfort of loose pants, reflecting consumer demand for both performance and style [2] Top Brand News - Anta Sports reported a revenue of 38.54 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 14.3% increase, but faced an 8.27% drop in stock price due to concerns over growth potential [5] - FILA achieved a revenue of 14.18 billion yuan, growing 8.6% by focusing on high-end sports fashion and targeting middle-class consumers [5] - Bosideng ranked 45th in the 2025 global apparel brand value list with a brand value of $2.09 billion, reflecting its strong market position and commitment to innovation [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. stock market shows strong performance, but 87.5% of stocks are either stagnant or declining, indicating a misleading overall market health [1][9][10] - Japan's economy remains sluggish, and the outlook for the Japanese stock market is not optimistic [1][13] - The European economy is largely following the U.S. trend, with concerns about sustainability once military spending increases cease [1][14] Group 2: Asset Allocation and Investment Strategy - Emphasis on growth in asset allocation, particularly in technology and innovative pharmaceuticals, driven by technological advancements [1][10] - Current corporate profit growth of 2.5% is insufficient to support a bull market in A-shares, which is characterized as a structural bull market [1][19] - Long-term bullish outlook on gold, with a recommendation to adjust asset allocation to 50% stocks, 30% bonds, and 20% gold [1][21][24] Group 3: Economic Challenges and Opportunities - The global economy is entering a phase of high volatility and low growth, with significant unresolved issues such as aging populations and national debts [3][4][5] - The AI revolution is seen as a potential driver for new business models and the emergence of dominant companies, similar to the post-dot-com bubble era [2][25] - Structural opportunities and risks are concentrated in technology stocks, with a potential for market consolidation in the AI sector [2][25]