Economic Overview - The National Bureau of Statistics indicates that despite international input factors exerting downward pressure on prices in certain industries, China's economic foundation remains stable and resilient, with macro policies working in synergy to promote high-quality development [1][2] - In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1% after a previous decline of 0.4%, while year-on-year, it decreased by 0.1% [1][4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.4%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, which is an expansion of the decline by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][5] CPI Analysis - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.5% in April, maintaining a stable growth rate [2] - The year-on-year CPI decline is primarily influenced by a significant drop in international oil prices, with energy prices decreasing by 4.8% year-on-year, and gasoline prices falling by 10.4%, contributing approximately 0.38 percentage points to the CPI decline [4] PPI Analysis - The PPI's decline is attributed to international input factors affecting domestic industry prices, with global commodity prices, including Brent crude oil and LME copper, experiencing declines of 6.6% and 5.5% respectively [5][6] - Domestic energy prices are also seasonally declining, particularly in coal mining and processing, which saw a month-on-month decrease of 3.3% [6] Price Trends in Specific Industries - Certain industries are witnessing positive price changes due to improved supply-demand relationships, with construction and manufacturing sectors showing signs of recovery [7] - Prices in the black metal smelting and rolling industry and non-metallic mineral products industry have seen a narrowing of year-on-year declines by 1.4 and 1.0 percentage points respectively [7] - The prices of consumer goods and equipment manufacturing products are also rebounding, with household washing machines and new energy vehicles showing reduced year-on-year price declines [7][8] Export and Trade Impact - The ongoing diversification of trade is leading to price increases or reduced declines in some export sectors, such as integrated circuit packaging and testing, which saw a price increase of 2.7% [8] - The government emphasizes the importance of maintaining reasonable price levels to balance consumer spending and corporate profitability, with policies aimed at promoting price recovery [8]

投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：盘面震荡偏弱 节前注意持仓风险 基本面上，目前钢厂保持较高的生产率，上周日均铁水产量超预期增 至 244.35 万吨，环比前一周增加 4.23 万吨，同比去年增加 15.63 万吨， 焦炭等原料刚性需求较好，叠加关税压力缓和，市场情绪回升，支撑煤焦 提涨情绪。但铁水已处于往年同期高位水平，继续提产空间有限，近期钢 协指出在当前需求下滑、市场下行的背景下，减产已是行业共识，亟须转 化为统一行动，目前部分钢厂发布 5 月份检修计划，预计铁水将在 5 月见 顶，后期存在需求负反馈的风险。供应端，焦化厂利润改善，保持稳步增 产趋势；煤矿端生产积极性同样较高，矿山端焦原煤库存量继续攀升。总 体来看煤焦供应端增量的压力仍存。 原材料：程 鹏 观点：关税形势缓和，但仍存不确定性，持续 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the PVC industry, the overall production volume is expected to increase slightly this week due to the resumption of some maintenance devices, but the planned maintenance in the later period will increase, and the production volume of the ethylene - process may be less than expected. The export volume is expected to increase slightly. The apparent demand this week is less than expected, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The profit of the chlor - alkali complex is oscillating weakly, and the export profit has improved slightly. The basis has strengthened oscillatingly, and the 5 - 9 spread can be considered for a short - position configuration. The upstream is reluctant to cut production, the middle - stream traders are cautious, and the downstream start - up is increasing but the apparent demand is poor [6][9][10]. - For the caustic soda industry, the production volume has increased slightly this week, the export volume is relatively stable, the apparent demand is better than expected, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The price of caustic soda has weakened, the profit of the chlor - alkali complex has decreased, and the export profit has strengthened. The upstream is under pressure, the middle - stream traders are cautious, and the downstream demand is poor [97][100][101]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PVC Market 3.1.1 Spot Market - PVC production: This week's total production is 46.75 million tons, with ethylene - process production at 12.10 million tons and calcium - carbide process production at 34.65 million tons. Next week, the total production is expected to be 45.72 million tons, with ethylene - process production at 10.17 million tons and calcium - carbide process production at 35.54 million tons. The import volume is 1.50 million tons per week on average, and the export volume is 5.00 million tons per week on average, with a slight expected increase in exports [6]. - Apparent demand: This week's apparent demand is 43.43 million tons, less than expected. Next week, it is estimated to be 45.63 million tons [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory this week is 90.74 million tons, with a decrease of 0.18 million tons. If calculated based on the current production volume and apparent demand, it is expected to decrease slightly next week [6]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis of East China calcium - carbide process has strengthened from - 189 to - 169 this week, and the basis of South China calcium - carbide process has strengthened from - 39 to - 19. The 05 basis has strengthened oscillatingly [9]. - Spread: The 5 - 9 spread has decreased from - 135 to - 141, and the 5 - 9 spread can be considered for a short - position configuration [9]. 3.1.3 Industry Chain Profit - Production profit: The profit of calcium - carbide production in Shaanxi has decreased from - 254 to - 258, and in Inner Mongolia, it has decreased from 268 to 264. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong has decreased from - 127 to - 235. The export profit has improved slightly, with the FOB Tianjin relative export profit increasing from 5 to 12, the theoretical export profit to India increasing from 287 to 297, and the theoretical export profit to Southeast Asia increasing from 167 to 207 [9]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Market 3.2.1 Spot Market - Caustic soda production: This week's total production is 79.48 million tons, with an increase of 0.17 million tons. Next week, it is expected to be 80.66 million tons, and the week after next, it is expected to be 81.40 million tons [97]. - Apparent demand: This week's apparent demand is 75.57 million tons, better than expected. Next week, it is estimated to be about 77.5 million tons [97]. - Inventory: The total inventory (in terms of 100% purity) this week is 26.11 million tons, with a decrease of 0.67 million tons, and it is expected to continue to decrease next week [97]. 3.2.2 Basis and Spread - Basis: The 32% caustic soda basis for the 01 contract has decreased from 57 to 33, and the 05 contract basis has increased from 123 to 140. The 5 - 9 spread is recommended to be on the sidelines [100]. 3.2.3 Industry Chain Profit - Production profit: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong has decreased from - 235 to - 276, and the export profit has strengthened [100].