证券研究报告 | 2025年11月30日 估值周观察(11月第5期) 科技主导"反弹周" 策略研究 · 专题报告 证券分析师：王开 021-60933132 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60375429 chengkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980523090002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 近一周（2025.11.24-2025.11.28）海外市场普遍反弹，估值随股价修复。美股领涨，主要指数均上涨3%以上，其中纳斯达克100涨幅 最显著（+4.93%）。欧元区中，德国表现突出；亚洲市场整体温和上涨，恒生科技和日经225涨幅超3%，估值随股价修复。除道琼斯 工业指数，美股主要指数PE扩张均超过1x；纳斯达克、日经225、韩国综合指数、恒生科技PE扩张幅度超过2x。从估值分位数看，标 普500和法国CAC40位于历史较高水平，印度SENSEX30和恒生科技指数处于较低区间。 • 近一周(2025.11.24-2025.11.28)，A ...

Group 1: Market Performance Overview - In the first eleven months of 2025, the communication ETF led the market with a remarkable increase of 96.11%, showcasing strong momentum in the AI era [1] - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector emerged as a significant winner, with various ETFs in this category showing substantial gains: Hong Kong innovative drug ETF fund up 87.42%, Hong Kong innovative drug ETF up 86.62%, and Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug ETF up 85.22% [1] - The resource sector also performed well, with mining ETF up 82.32%, non-ferrous metals ETF up 76.83%, and rare metals ETF up 76.58%, driven by rising global inflation expectations [1] Group 2: ETF Performance Data - The top-performing ETFs from January to November 2025 include: - Communication ETF: 96.11% [2] - Hong Kong innovative drug ETF fund: 87.42% [2] - Hong Kong innovative drug ETF: 86.62% [2] - Communication equipment ETF: 85.24% [2] - Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug ETF: 85.22% [2] - The worst-performing ETFs included: - Energy chemical ETF: -14.78% [5] - S&P Consumer ETF: -11.40% [5] - Alcohol ETF: -5.36% [5] Group 3: Fund Flows - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF saw the highest net inflow of 553.05 billion yuan, indicating strong market confidence in the Hong Kong tech sector [8] - Other notable net inflows included short-term bond ETF at 436.42 billion yuan and gold ETF at 406.63 billion yuan [8] - Conversely, significant outflows were observed in the Sci-Tech 50 ETF, with a net outflow of 463.46 billion yuan, indicating pressure on growth sectors [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The stock index opened with a "V" - shaped reversal, then maintained a narrow - range oscillation until the close. Small and medium - cap stock indexes were relatively strong, and the trading volume of the two markets shrank to about 1.5 trillion yuan. The market is currently in a game between profit - taking pressure on funds and expectations of policy benefits. Due to the dull news, the upper pressure and lower support have both weakened, and the trading sentiment has cooled down. It is expected to maintain an oscillation in the short term, and the logic of valuation repair driven by loose liquidity in the medium and long term remains unchanged. The recommended strategy is to hold positions and wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, except for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, all other stock indexes closed up, with small and medium - cap stock indexes being relatively strong. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 123.997 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IH declined with shrinking volume, while other varieties rose with shrinking volume [2]. Important Information - The State Council Information Office released a white paper stating that emerging fields such as outer space, the Internet, and artificial intelligence are new high - grounds for human development, new focal points for strategic security, and new frontiers for global governance. - Regarding the comments of the leader of the Japanese opposition party on Kōichi Hayashi's statement during the party leader's debate, the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun responded that "not mentioning" and "withdrawing" wrong remarks are two different things, and the Chinese side will never accept Japan's attempt to downplay, prevaricate, and cover up the serious wrong remarks [3]. Stock Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday gain/loss (%) | 0.14 | - 0.05 | 0.95 | 0.95 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 9.0267 | 3.8726 | 10.6633 | 17.4822 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous period (10,000 lots) | - 1.0626 | - 0.3771 | - 0.6343 | - 0.8621 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.8622 | 8.9179 | 24.868 | 35.9979 | | Open interest change compared to the previous period (10,000 lots) | - 0.5574 | - 0.3106 | - 0.589 | - 0.4064 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index gain/loss (%) | 0.34 | | Shenzhen Component Index gain/loss (%) | 0.85 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 3.46 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 15857.96 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous period (100 million yuan) | - 1239.97 | [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a bullish trend driven by liquidity and sentiment, with expectations for continued growth in technology stocks over the next two to three years, transitioning to a broader bull market by 2026 [2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The Hang Seng Index opened up by 0.25%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.43%, with most tech stocks, including SMIC and Alibaba, showing gains [1]. - Analysts suggest that the recent adjustments in the Hong Kong stock market are normal due to previous significant gains and tightening U.S. dollar liquidity, with historical averages indicating small pullbacks of around 7% during bull markets [2][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Key investment directions include focusing on AI-driven industry trends, capacity cycle reversals, and sectors related to export and commodities amid global uncertainties [2]. - The Hong Kong market is seen as a valuation haven, with the Hang Seng Tech Index trading below historical averages, indicating substantial room for valuation recovery [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The liquidity environment is expected to remain supportive, with potential inflows from both domestic and foreign investors as the U.S. enters a rate-cutting phase [5]. - Despite short-term volatility, the underlying fundamentals of the Hong Kong market remain strong, with many institutions maintaining a positive outlook for the continuation of the bull market [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond futures are under pressure and should be treated with caution [6]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, due to low asset valuations, economic resilience, and improved market sentiment, the volatility center of stock index futures is expected to gradually rise, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9]. - Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", and the slowdown of the US labor market, precious metals are favored. But considering the large recent increase, it is advisable to wait and see for long - entry opportunities [11]. - For steel products like rebar and hot - rolled coil, due to weak demand in the real estate industry and high inventory, their prices are expected to remain weak in the medium - term. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels [13]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weak, and its futures may face resistance in rebound. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels [15]. - Coke and coking coal futures may stop falling and stabilize. Investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities at low levels [18]. - The overall surplus pressure of ferroalloys is weakening. After a decline, investors can consider long - entry opportunities when the spot loss expands [21]. - For crude oil, although the number of rigs has increased, the increase in US crude oil production is still a long - term task. The 28 - point new plan brings new changes to the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Investors can focus on long - entry opportunities for the main contract [23]. - For fuel oil, although there are some negative factors, investors can still focus on long - entry opportunities for the main contract [27]. - For polyolefins, considering the current situation of the downstream industry, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [29]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the raw material market and supply changes [32]. - Natural rubber may show range - bound fluctuations in the short - term. Investors can focus on long - entry opportunities [33]. - For PVC, the oversupply situation continues, but the downward space is limited. Pay attention to the supply - side changes [35]. - Urea prices are expected to decline slightly in the next period, but the downward space is limited [38]. - PX may fluctuate and adjust in the short - term. Pay attention to controlling positions, be vigilant about crude oil changes, and follow macro - policy changes [40]. - PTA may fluctuate in the short - term. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [41]. - Ethylene glycol may be under pressure in the short - term. Focus on port inventory and supply changes [42]. - Short - fiber may fluctuate with costs in the short - term. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [44]. - Bottle chips are expected to fluctuate with the cost side. Control risks [45]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to consumption sustainability and the resumption progress of mines [46]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [48]. - Aluminum prices may experience a phased correction [50]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [52]. - Lead prices may show wide - range fluctuations [54]. - Tin prices are expected to rise due to tight supply and certain demand resilience [55]. - Nickel prices may fluctuate. The cost of nickel ore has support, but the consumption is weak [56]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, investors can focus on long - entry opportunities in the low - cost support range [58]. - Palm oil may be considered for long - entry on pullbacks [60]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, a long - biased strategy can be considered for rapeseed oil [63]. - Cotton prices are expected to be weak [67]. - Sugar prices are under pressure and may fluctuate [71]. - Apple prices are expected to be strong [73]. - For live pigs, after partially closing out short positions, the remaining short positions can be temporarily held. Pay attention to the marginal changes in consumption caused by subsequent cooling [76]. - For eggs, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [78]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see. Corn starch may follow the corn market [81]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 3564 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 564 billion yuan. The profit of industrial enterprises in October decreased year - on - year, while the cumulative profit from January to October increased year - on - year [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond yields are at a relatively low level, and the market risk preference has increased. Treasury bond futures are under pressure [6]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The National Development and Reform Commission arranged special treasury bonds for "two - major" construction projects in the past two years [8]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is low. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the economy has resilience. The market sentiment has improved, and the volatility center of stock index futures is expected to rise [9]. 3.3 Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures both rose. The eurozone's economic and service industry sentiment indexes improved in November [11]. - The complex global environment and the slowdown of the US labor market are favorable for precious metals. But due to the large recent increase, it is better to wait and see [11]. 3.4 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated weakly. The spot prices of related products are given. In the medium - term, the demand for rebar is weak, and the supply is high, with high inventory. The price of hot - rolled coil is expected to follow a similar trend [13]. 3.5 Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. The spot prices of different types of iron ore are provided. Since October, the daily output of hot metal has declined, the import volume has increased year - on - year, and the port inventory has risen [15]. 3.6 Coke and Coking Coal - On the previous trading day, coke and coking coal futures fluctuated. The supply of coking coal is increasing, and the demand from downstream coke enterprises is weakening. The supply of coke is stable, but the demand from steel mills may decline [18]. 3.7 Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures both fell. The supply of manganese ore has increased, and the cost of ferroalloys is rising. The output of ferroalloys is declining, and the overall surplus is easing [20]. 3.8 Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened and closed higher. The CFTC data shows that speculators reduced their net short positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs has increased for three consecutive weeks. The 28 - point new plan brings new changes to the Russia - Ukraine conflict [22]. 3.9 Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward. The delivery time of ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is inconsistent. The inventory in Singapore has increased in November. There are some negative factors for fuel oil prices, but investors can still focus on long - entry opportunities [25]. 3.10 Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the offer price of PP in Hangzhou moved down, and the price of LLDPE in Yuyao partially decreased. The average operating rate of the domestic polypropylene downstream industry has increased slightly, but the order performance in some traditional fields is weak [28]. 3.11 Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The price of butadiene is under pressure, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand from tire enterprises is weak. The social inventory has increased slightly [30]. 3.12 Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand from some enterprises is weak. The inventory has increased slightly [33]. 3.13 PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose. The supply is increasing, the demand of downstream industries varies, and the cost and profit situation is complex. The social inventory has increased [35]. 3.14 Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The supply has increased, the demand of downstream products varies, and the industry profit has increased slightly. The inventory is lower than expected [38]. 3.15 PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. The PXN spread is relatively strong, the supply is slightly reduced, and the cost is affected by crude oil. It may fluctuate and adjust in the short - term [40]. 3.16 PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply has decreased, the demand of polyester is stable, and the processing fee has declined. It may fluctuate in the short - term [41]. 3.17 Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply has decreased slightly, the inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the demand support is limited. It may be under pressure in the short - term [42]. 3.18 Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is stable, and the processing fee is adjusted. It may fluctuate with costs in the short - term [44]. 3.19 Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The processing fee is adjusted, the supply load has decreased, the export has increased slightly, and it may follow the cost side to fluctuate [45]. 3.20 Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is at a high level, the consumption in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved, and the inventory has decreased [46]. 3.21 Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures fell slightly. The economic data strengthens the market's expectation of an interest - rate cut in December, which is beneficial to copper prices. But the supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the demand is weak [47]. 3.22 Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures fell, while alumina futures rose. The supply of bauxite is sufficient, the supply of alumina is in surplus, and the demand for electrolytic aluminum is seasonally weak. Aluminum prices may experience a phased correction [49]. 3.23 Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures rose. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has declined, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the raw - material shortage provides support for zinc prices [51]. 3.24 Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures rose. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, the production of recycled lead is growing slowly, and the demand varies in different sectors. The inventory has increased [53]. 3.25 Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures fell. The supply of tin ore is tight, the demand shows certain resilience, and the inventory is decreasing. Tin prices are expected to rise [55]. 3.26 Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures rose. The price of nickel ore is stable, the production of downstream nickel - iron plants is affected, and the consumption of stainless steel is weak. Nickel prices may fluctuate [56]. 3.27 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures rose. The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans is slightly slower, the US soybean harvest is almost completed, and the demand is expected to improve. The inventory of oil and meal is high, but the demand is growing [57]. 3.28 Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil rose for the second consecutive day due to production concerns. The export of Indonesian palm oil decreased in September, and the export of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 25 decreased compared with the previous month. The domestic inventory is at a medium level [59]. 3.29 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed market was closed for Thanksgiving. The import of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in China in October showed different trends. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at different levels [61]. 3.30 Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rebounded. The USDA report increased the global and US cotton production and inventory forecasts. The domestic cotton production is high, and the demand is weak after the peak season [64]. 3.31 Sugar - On the previous trading day, sugar futures rebounded slightly. The number of sugar mills in Guangxi that have started crushing is less than last year, while the national new - sugar production has increased. The export of Brazilian sugar has increased, and the domestic import is expected to be high in the next two months [68]. 3.32 Apples - On the previous trading day, apple futures rose significantly due to favorable inventory data. The current inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined [72]. 3.33 Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs decreased slightly. The supply pressure still exists, and the consumption change caused by subsequent cooling needs to be continuously monitored. Part of the short positions can be closed, and the remaining can be held temporarily [74]. 3.34 Eggs - On the previous trading day, the price of eggs in the main production areas rose, while that in the main sales areas remained unchanged. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the supply has recovered. The consumption may be supported by cooling, and it is advisable to wait and see [77]. 3.35 Corn and Starch - On the previous trading day, corn futures closed flat, and corn - starch futures rose. The transportation of corn in the Northeast is affected, and the arrival volume at the northern port is low. The demand for corn is growing slightly, and corn - starch may follow the corn market [79].

Report Information - Report Name: GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD Daily Report - Report Date: November 28, 2025 - Report Author: GOLDTRUST FUTURES Research Institute Group 1: PVC Investment Analysis - Investment Rating: Bullish on PVC second - tier contract - Core View: There are four reasons to be bullish on the PVC second - tier contract - Detailed Points: - Valuation and cost support: Current PVC prices are at a near - decade low, with the entire industry in losses (700 yuan/ton loss for calcium carbide method and 560 yuan/ton for ethylene method). There is a strong demand for valuation repair and limited downside. Rising coal prices lift the cost center, and the falling caustic soda price weakens the "alkali - chlorine compensation" support, leading to an expected supply contraction [3]. - Export demand increment: India has a demand gap of 3 million tons/year, and China's exports to India account for over 40%. From January to September 2025, exports increased by 47.78% year - on - year. After India cancelled the BIS certification, an additional 200,000 - 300,000 tons of exports to India are expected in the fourth quarter, which can digest domestic high inventories [3]. - Policy and supply - demand marginal improvement: The implementation of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" and urban village renovation policies is accelerating, which will boost the demand for downstream pipes and profiles in the real estate industry. On the supply side, new capacity has been put into production, and some enterprises have reduced their loads due to profit compression, with the operating rate declining month - on - month, thus alleviating supply pressure [3]. - Sentiment and capital drive: Frequent release of positive macro - policies has increased market risk appetite. Capital inflows have promoted the repair of futures prices. Previous negative factors have been fully digested, and the cost - effectiveness of going long is prominent [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis of Various Futures Stock Index Futures - Core View: Technically, from a 5 - minute cycle, it is expected that there will be an upward rush in the early trading session tomorrow. Overall, chasing the rise is not recommended [7]. Gold Futures - Core View: Gold is currently in a complex oscillation process, which is expected to continue for some time. The strategy is not to chase the rise or kill the fall [11]. Iron Ore Futures - Core View: Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom, with weak domestic demand support. Technically, it should be viewed with a wide - range oscillation idea, and high - selling and low - buying are recommended [13]. Glass Futures - Core View: Technically, there have been many glass factory overhauls recently, and sentiment has improved. It can be viewed with an oscillation - bullish idea [15]. Methanol Futures - Core View: As of November 26, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.3635 million tons, a decrease of 115,800 tons from the previous period. This week, there was a significant destocking of methanol port inventory. Long - term long opportunities should be grasped [18]. Pulp Futures - Core View: As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.173 million tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.0%. The inventory has been accumulating for two consecutive weeks. The futures market has recently shown an oscillation - bearish trend [21].

Core Insights - China has become a focal point for global investors, with a consensus that the question is no longer whether to invest, but how to smartly allocate resources in the Chinese market [2] - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal moment for overseas capital reassessing and positioning in Chinese assets, driven by factors such as declining interest rates, a weakening dollar, and advancements in AI [2] - Key reasons for the attractiveness of Chinese assets include technological innovation, valuation advantages, and policies aimed at reducing internal competition [3] Investment Themes - Three main investment themes favored by foreign investors are technological innovation, overseas industrial chains, and valuation recovery [3][4] - AI is highlighted as a significant theme, with expectations for strong performance from Chinese tech stocks driven by advancements in AI and a supportive domestic market [3] - The shift of Chinese companies from merely exporting products to establishing production capacities and supply chains overseas is seen as a resilient investment strategy [4] Positive Signals - Since 2025, there has been a noticeable acceleration in foreign capital reassessing Chinese assets, with positive signals emerging from policy, corporate performance, and funding [6] - Key policy changes, such as the "9·24" policy, have provided a foundation for investor confidence [6] - Chinese enterprises have demonstrated strong competitiveness in technology and innovation, contributing to a more favorable investment climate [6] Market Dynamics - Despite recent fluctuations in the A-share market, many foreign institutions believe the long-term trend remains intact, viewing current volatility as an opportunity for attractive positioning [8] - The ongoing AI revolution is expected to continue driving growth opportunities across various sectors, supported by a likely shift towards looser monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [8] - Emerging markets, including China, are projected to perform well in 2026 due to favorable macroeconomic conditions such as a weaker dollar and easing inflation [8]

Core Viewpoint - The current phase of the FTSE China A-share free cash flow industry is characterized by a recovery in valuation and significant development opportunities, driven by a decrease in micro trading risks and a stabilizing economic outlook as the 14th Five-Year Plan progresses [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Global risk appetite has been significantly pressured, leading to asset volatility and panic selling, which has released substantial micro trading risks [1] - The importance of economic growth as the 14th Five-Year Plan begins is highlighted, with a policy window approaching that may establish new market expectations [1] - Regulatory authorities show strong determination and action plans to stabilize the capital market in the short term [1] Group 2: Valuation and Investment Opportunities - Factors that previously caused valuation discounts in the stock market have largely dissipated, with tail risks decreasing and the RMB assets gradually stabilizing, indicating potential for significant upward movement in the Chinese capital market [1] - Chinese equities offer a higher risk-return profile compared to other major asset classes [1] - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to the cash flow ETF (159399), which has outperformed the CSI Dividend Index and the CSI 300 Index for nine consecutive years from 2016 to 2024 [1] Group 3: ETF Characteristics - The cash flow ETF (159399) focuses on large and mid-cap stocks, with a higher proportion of central state-owned enterprises compared to similar cash flow indices [1] - Monthly dividend assessments are available for the cash flow ETF, making it an attractive option for interested investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - Google's stock price has surged to a historic high due to breakthroughs in its self-developed TPU chips and business model, while Nvidia is undergoing a phase of adjustment. This indicates a shift in market investment logic from hardware-centric to a more diversified ecosystem encompassing "model-application-hardware" [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Institutional fund movements show a trend where Warren Buffett has increased his stake in Google, while Barclays and other international institutions have reduced their holdings in Nvidia [1] - The A-share market saw a significant rally in sectors related to computing power hardware, including optical modules, PCBs, and storage chips, with the ChiNext ETF (159952) rising by 2.16% on November 26, 2023, and achieving a year-to-date increase of 43.73% [1][2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The current investment landscape in the ChiNext index is characterized by a favorable price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 38 times, placing it in the top 33% of valuation over the past decade, indicating strong potential for profit recovery among ChiNext companies [2] - The AI narrative is expected to continue driving demand across the computing power supply chain, with leading optical module manufacturers poised to benefit from stable customer relationships and scalable delivery capabilities [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the AI technology sector will remain a focal point for institutional investors, with expectations of continued high demand across various segments of the AI computing power industry [3] - The current market environment is seen as having the potential for healthy recovery, with suggestions for investors to consider increasing their positions in domestic computing power assets [3]

Core Insights - China has become a focal point for global investors, with a consensus that the market is worth investing in, shifting the focus to strategies for smart allocation [1] - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a critical juncture for overseas capital reassessing and reallocating to Chinese assets, driven by factors such as declining interest rates and the AI revolution [1][6] Investment Themes - Three main investment themes favored by foreign capital include technological innovation, overseas industrial chains, and valuation recovery [2] - AI is highlighted as a significant theme, with Chinese tech giants expected to perform well due to breakthroughs in AI, a robust domestic market, and supportive policies [2][8] - The shift of Chinese companies from merely exporting products to establishing overseas production and supply chains is seen as a flexible investment opportunity [3] Valuation Recovery - Many A-share companies related to consumption and real estate are currently undervalued compared to historical averages, presenting potential for valuation recovery if these sectors stabilize [3][6] - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to positively impact certain industries by improving product pricing and profitability [4] Positive Signals - Since 2025, there has been a noticeable acceleration in foreign capital reassessing Chinese assets, with positive signals emerging from policy, corporate performance, and funding [6] - Institutional investors have shown increased interest in Chinese equities, with significant inflows into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [6][7] Market Outlook - Despite recent market fluctuations, many foreign institutions believe the long-term bullish trend for A-shares remains intact, viewing current volatility as an opportunity for strategic positioning [7] - The ongoing AI revolution is expected to continue driving growth opportunities in related sectors, supported by a likely shift towards looser monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [7][8]