Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Corn**: In the short - term, the price of spot and near - month contracts has strong support due to the supply - demand gap before the new crop is launched. In the long - term, potential increases in imports and lower new - season planting costs may put downward pressure on prices [1]. - **Starch**: Short - term prices are expected to have a weak rebound, while long - term prices are expected to be bearish due to high inventory and lower expected raw material costs [2]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are under pressure from Brazilian supply, but may rebound. Domestic sugar prices have upward pressure due to upcoming large imports [5]. - **Cotton**: After a rapid price increase, prices may decline due to low downstream profits and expected new - crop production increases [6]. - **Eggs**: Spot prices are in a seasonal upward trend, but high cold - storage egg inventory and high laying - hen存栏 may limit the increase [8]. - **Apples**: New - season production may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and spot prices are affected by seasonal fruits [11]. - **Pigs**: Spot prices are in a weak and volatile state. Long - term supply pressure remains, and futures need further spot verification [11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: Corn prices in different regions remained relatively stable from July 18 - 24, with some minor changes. Starch prices were also stable, and the processing profit was in a loss state [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Corn supply tension has been alleviated by auctions, but the supply - demand gap persists in the short - term. Starch prices follow raw material prices and are expected to be bearish in the long - term [1][2]. Sugar - **Price Data**: Sugar spot prices in different regions were mostly stable from July 18 - 24, with a 10 - yuan decrease in the Kunming price. The import profit and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [5]. - **Market Analysis**: International sugar prices are affected by Brazilian supply, and domestic prices are affected by imports [5]. Cotton - **Price Data**: The price of 3128 cotton decreased by 20 yuan from July 18 - 24, and the import profit and other data changed slightly [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Cotton prices may decline due to low downstream profits and expected new - crop production increases [6]. Eggs - **Price Data**: Egg spot prices in different regions increased from July 18 - 24, and the basis also increased [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Egg prices are in a seasonal upward trend, but high cold - storage inventory and high laying - hen存栏 may limit the increase [8]. Apples - **Price Data**: Apple spot prices in Shandong remained stable from July 18 - 24, and the basis decreased [10][11]. - **Market Analysis**: New - season production may not differ much from last year, and consumption is in the off - season [11]. Pigs - **Price Data**: Pig prices in different regions decreased from July 18 - 24, and the basis changed significantly [11]. - **Market Analysis**: Pig spot prices are in a weak and volatile state, and long - term supply pressure remains [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, and macro - economic news. It also covers international and domestic supply - demand situations for various agricultural products [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Market - Overnight prices and changes of various futures are presented, such as the closing price of BMD's October Malaysian palm oil at 4316.00 with a previous day's increase of 2.47%. Brent's September contract dropped 0.60% previously and 1.69% overnight [1]. - Currency exchange rates and their changes are also shown, like the US dollar index at 98.44 with a 0.20% decline [1]. 02 Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE's palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal futures in different regions are provided. For example, the spot price of DCE's 2509 palm oil in North China is 9000 with a basis of 100 and no change [2]. - Import soybean quotes include CNF premiums and CNF prices for different origins, such as Brazil's CNF premium of 260 cents per bushel and a CNF price of 473 dollars per ton [3]. 03 Important Fundamental Information -产区天气 - - US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - average temperatures and near - to above - normal precipitation from July 23 - 27. The Midwest will have an active rainfall system and rising temperatures, which is generally favorable for crops but may bring high - temperature stress to some areas [4][6]. - International Supply - Demand - - Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20 decreased 3.5% compared to the same period last month. The KPK is discussing land conversion from rubber to palm oil for smallholders to obtain MSPO certification [8][9]. - If Indonesia implements the B50 biodiesel blending policy, domestic palm oil consumption may surge by about 3 million tons [10]. - Nigeria plans to stabilize global crude palm oil prices and has increased production to 1.5 million tons [11]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area is estimated to increase, and the production is expected to reach 50.9 million tons [12]. - Canadian rapeseed exports increased, and the commercial inventory is 1.2049 million tons as of July 13 [13]. - Germany's 2025 winter rapeseed production for vegetable oil and biodiesel is expected to increase by 7.1% [14]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose, with different types of ships having different price and profit changes [14]. - Domestic Supply - Demand - - On July 18, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 13% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased [15]. - China's palm oil imports in June increased year - on - year, while soybean oil imports decreased. Rapeseed and mustard oil imports increased [15]. - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 29th week was 2.3055 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.81% [15]. 04 Macro News - International News - - The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in July was 61.8, higher than expected. US new - home starts and building permits in June also showed positive changes [18]. - The eurozone's May seasonally - adjusted current account surplus was 32.307 billion euros [18]. - Domestic News - - On July 18, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upward. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 10.28 billion yuan on that day and 120.11 billion yuan for the week [20]. 05 Capital Flow - On July 18, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 2.96 billion yuan, with a 2.187 billion yuan inflow in commodity futures and a 773 million yuan inflow in stock - index futures [23]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategies for both the soybean meal and corn sectors are cautiously bearish [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of the supply - demand report is minor and in line with market expectations. The weather in the main soybean - producing areas in the US is favorable, and the soybean growth is expected to remain good. In China, there is still pressure on the spot market, and future focus should be on the growth of new - season US soybeans and policy changes [3] - In the domestic corn market, there is an increase in supply, a lackluster demand, and changes in the market atmosphere due to import auctions [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data - Soybean Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2978 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.47%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2655 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.15%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2910 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2810 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2790 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton). In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2660 yuan/ton [1] - US Data: As of July 13, the US soybean good - excellent rate was 70%, the flowering rate was 47%, and the pod - setting rate was 15%. As of July 10, the US soybean export inspection volume was 14.70 tons. The 2024/25 US soybean export inspection volume was 4641 tons, a 10.4% year - on - year increase, reaching 91.4% of the annual export target [2] 2. Market News and Important Data - Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2295 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.30%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2641 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.23%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2740 yuan/ton [4] - US Data: As of July 13, the US corn good - excellent rate was 74%, the silking rate was 34%, and the wax - ripening rate was 7%. As of July 10, the US corn export inspection volume was 128.7 tons [4] 3. Market Analysis - Soybean Meal - The supply - demand report adjustment is small, in line with expectations. The US soybean good - excellent rate is high, and the weather is favorable. In China, there is spot pressure, and the soybean meal inventory is rising rapidly [3] 4. Market Analysis - Corn - In China, the supply of corn increases due to auctions and storage issues. The demand is weak as feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and the breeding season is off - peak. Import auctions show a change in market sentiment [5] 5. Strategy - For both soybean meal and corn, the strategy is cautiously bearish [4][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The July report indicates a downward adjustment in global corn, rice, and wheat production for 2025/2026, while soybean production is projected to increase [12] - The USDA's report highlights a reduction in corn production due to a decrease in harvested area in the United States, while an increase in soybean production is attributed to expanded harvested area in Ukraine [12][22] - The report also notes that wheat production is down due to reduced harvested areas in Russia and Mexico, as well as declines in Canada [34][35] - Rice production is expected to decrease due to a reduction in harvested area in the United States [51] Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - The global corn production for 2025/2026 is adjusted down by 2.32 million tons to 126.4 million tons, with a corresponding decrease in consumption [13] - The USDA forecasts a reduction in U.S. corn production to 39.9 million tons, down by 2.92 million tons from the previous report [13] Soybean - Global soybean production for 2025/2026 is projected to increase by 0.86 million tons to 42.8 million tons, with domestic consumption also rising [22] - The USDA reports an increase in soybean production in Ukraine, with an expected output of 7.6 million tons, up by 1 million tons from the previous forecast [22] Wheat - The global wheat production for 2025/2026 is adjusted down by 40,000 tons to 80.9 million tons, while consumption is expected to rise [34] - The report indicates that wheat production in Russia is projected to be 23 million tons, down by 1 million tons from the previous report due to farmers switching to other crops [35] Rice - Global rice production for 2025/2026 is adjusted down by 310,000 tons to 54.1 million tons, while consumption is expected to increase by 550,000 tons [51] - The USDA forecasts a decrease in U.S. rice production to 6.51 million tons, down by 300,000 tons from the previous report [51]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro news, and capital flow. It shows the performance of various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and their related products, as well as the impact of weather on soybean crops and international and domestic macro - economic factors on the market. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Market - Overnight closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts are presented, including palm oil, Brent crude, WTI crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. The US dollar index and exchange rates of multiple currencies are also provided [1]. 02 Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given [2]. - CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different origins are presented [3]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather and Crop Impact**: US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - normal rainfall and cooler temperatures in the future. The Midwest has continuous showers, which are generally beneficial for soybean growth [4][6]. - **International Supply and Demand**: BMI predicts that Malaysia's palm oil production will partially recover to 1.95 billion tons in 2025/26, while domestic consumption will decline. Indonesia transfers nearly 400,000 hectares of confiscated oil palm plantations. Analysts' forecasts for USDA reports on global and South American crop production, export sales, and EU rapeseed production are also provided [8][10][12]. - **Market Transactions**: On July 9, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased, while the trading volume of soybean meal decreased. The opening rate of oil mills declined. Agricultural product prices showed some fluctuations [13]. 04 Macro News - **International News**: The probability of the Fed maintaining or cutting interest rates in July and September is estimated. Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on Brazil. US economic data such as wholesale sales, mortgage application index, and EIA inventories are presented. Malaysia's central bank cuts interest rates [15]. - **Domestic News**: The US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate rises. The Chinese central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds. China's June CPI and PPI data are released, and the expected GDP scale for this year is mentioned [17]. 05 Capital Flow On July 9, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 19.597 billion yuan, with details of capital flow in different sectors such as commodity and stock index futures [20]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: The bullish expectation of corn has basically been fulfilled, and it is waiting for policy guidance. The current futures market has basically reached the expected price range, and the future market will be affected by factors such as policies, supply and demand, and consumption [6][7][20]. - Pig: The supply of pigs is expected to increase, and the market is trading the logic of basis repair. The supply of pigs will increase in the second half of the year, and the price will be affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies [9][10][55]. - Eggs: There is still an expectation of a seasonal increase in egg prices, but the overall trend may be up first and then down. The supply pressure of eggs is obvious, and the price will be affected by factors such as supply, demand, and consumption seasons [15][16][86]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Corn 3.1.1 Market Review in the First Half of the Year - Spot market: The supply - demand pattern of the corn spot market tightened in the first half of the year, and the price fluctuated upward with the center of gravity shifting up. As of June 27, the FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port was 2380 yuan/ton, a 16% increase from the beginning of the year [6]. - Futures market: The bullish sentiment in the corn futures market was gradually fulfilled in the first half of the year, and the futures price oscillated upward. As of June 27, the closing price of the main 2509 contract was 2384 yuan/ton, a 4.6% increase from the beginning of the year [6]. 3.1.2 Strategy Review The trading strategy proposed in the 2025 breeding industry annual report has been verified by the market, and the current futures price has basically fulfilled the bullish expectation [7]. 3.1.3 Variety Views - Macro logic: Internationally, the macro - driving force is gradually weakening; domestically, it is mainly reflected in industrial policies, especially import policy orientation [20]. - Industry logic: It has entered the passive inventory - building cycle, and attention should be paid to policies such as directional rice/imported corn auctions and grain import policies [20]. - Supply - demand logic: Supply: Globally, the corn supply situation is tightening, and there is still supply pressure in the US. Domestically, there is still a gap between production and demand in the long - term, and the pricing logic of substitutes remains unchanged. Consumption: Feed consumption is rigid, and industrial consumption is relatively stable [20]. - Variety view: In the short - term, the spot market is stable and slightly strong; in the medium - term, it may maintain a stable and slightly strong pattern, but the upside space may be limited; in the long - term, it maintains the pricing logic of import substitution + planting cost [20]. - Trading strategy: Long - term wide - range operation; medium - term low - buying thinking; short - term test the upper pressure of the range [20]. 3.2 Pig 3.2.1 Market Review in the First Half of the Year - Spot market: The supply of the pig spot market increased in the first half of the year, and the price fluctuated downward. As of June 27, the ex - factory price of pigs in Henan was 14.9 yuan/kg, a 9% decrease from the beginning of the year [9]. - Futures market: The futures market fulfilled the downward expectation in advance and then traded the logic of basis repair. As of June 27, the closing price of the main 2509 contract was 14005 yuan/ton, a 1.8% decrease from the beginning of the year [9]. 3.2.2 Strategy Review The main trading logic proposed in the 2025 breeding industry annual report has been verified by the market, and the strategy review effect is good [10]. 3.2.3 Market Views - Macro logic: Domestically, pay attention to the interaction between CPI and pig prices and industrial policy orientation [53]. - Industry logic: After African swine fever, the normalization of diseases has led to significant fluctuations in pig prices. The process of large - scale concentration in the breeding end is not over [54]. - Supply - demand logic: Supply: In 2025, the supply of pigs will enter an upward cycle, and the supply in the second half of the year will still increase. Demand: The consumption of pork will gradually increase in the second half of the year, and the relative increment of supply and demand in the fourth - quarter seasonal consumption peak is the key driving force for the long - short game [55]. - Market view: In the short - term, there are both supports and pressures for pig prices; in the medium - term, the price in the third quarter depends on the release of weight pressure; in the long - term, the supply of pigs will continue to increase, and the profit of the breeding end in the fourth quarter depends on the contribution of weight to supply [56][57]. - Operation suggestion: Long - term short - selling thinking; medium - term wide - range operation around the expected support and pressure of spot prices; short - term trading the logic of basis repair driven by weight reduction [58]. 3.3 Eggs 3.3.1 Market Review in the First Half of the Year - Spot market: The supply pressure of the egg spot market was obvious in the first half of the year, and the price dropped significantly. As of June 27, the spot price of eggs in Handan, Hebei was 2.56 yuan/jin, a 38% decrease from the beginning of the year [15]. - Futures market: The bearish expectation of the egg futures market was gradually fulfilled, and the futures price broke through and fell. As of June 27, the closing price of the main 2508 contract was 3543 yuan/500KG, an 8% decrease from the beginning of the year [15]. 3.3.2 Strategy Review The trading strategy proposed in the 2025 breeding industry annual report has been verified by the market, and the current futures price has basically fulfilled the bearish expectation [16]. 3.3.3 Variety Views - Macro logic: Domestically, pay attention to raw material prices and CPI changes, and pay attention to the impact of meat and vegetable prices in the second half of the year [84]. - Industry logic: The egg - chicken breeding industry has been profitable for four consecutive years, and the large - scale rate continues to increase [85]. - Supply - demand logic: Egg prices are mainly driven by the supply side, and consumption is mainly seasonally driven. The current egg - chicken inventory is at a high level, and the supply pressure will continue to be released. The key to the price in the third quarter is the rhythm and amplitude of capacity elimination [86]. - Variety view: In the short - term, egg prices are weakly stable; in the medium - term, the supply pressure is high before mid - July, and if there is large - scale elimination in June - July, there may be a phased rebound in August - September [87]. - Trading strategy: The short - selling strategy in the first half of the year has been verified. For 08/09 contracts, there are differences in the expected high - point of spot prices in the second half of the year. It is recommended to enter the market after the market gives a safe space [88].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: USDA's June supply - demand data shows a 300,000 - ton increase in global palm oil production and a 588,000 - ton increase in inventory for 2025 - 26. Indonesia's production and inventory remain unchanged, while Malaysia's production rises by 300,000 tons and inventory by 190,000 tons. Geopolitical conflicts and policy利好 may push up palm oil futures in the short - term, but fundamentals suggest potential inventory increase may suppress prices [1]. - Soybean oil: Similar to palm oil, affected by the same supply - demand data and external factors, with potential for short - term upward movement but facing pressure from inventory growth [1]. Meal - Current US soybean trading is influenced by Sino - US trade negotiations and bio - diesel blending requirements. New US soybean plantings have a fast progress and high good - quality rates, which put pressure on prices. Brazilian soybean premiums are strong, and domestic soybean and meal inventories are rising. Domestic meal is expected to oscillate, with limited upside [4]. Corn - Northeast traders have tight inventories and strong price - holding sentiment, and North China traders' shipping willingness is low. Corn prices are strong in the short - term but may face limited upward momentum after a rise. In the long - term, supply shortages and increasing consumption support price increases [7]. Livestock (Pigs) - Spot pig prices are in a volatile pattern. Slaughter weight is slowly decreasing, and secondary fattening has limited impact. Supply - demand improvement is poor, and while there is support from the reserve - purchase policy, upward drivers are weak [12]. Sugar - Global sugar supply is expected to be loose due to favorable weather in major producing regions. Raw sugar is likely to be in a weak - oscillating pattern, and domestic sugar prices are also expected to be weak with increasing import competition and weak demand [14]. Cotton - Old - crop cotton basis is strong, supporting prices, but new - crop production is expected to be high. Downstream demand has marginal improvement but lacks strong drivers. Short - term domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - Price Changes: On June 13, compared with June 12, prices of various oils and fats products showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 180 to 8530, and the price of P2509 increased by 0.91% [1]. - Inventory: Palm oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 17,552 on June 13 compared to June 12, and the inventory of coastal soybean oil and rapeseed oil was also reported [1]. Meal - Price Changes: On June 13, the price of Jiangsu soybean meal increased by 20 to 2900, while the price of M2509 decreased by 8 to 3041. The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 40 to 2610, and RM2509 remained unchanged [4]. - Supply and Demand: US soybean production and policy factors affect domestic meal prices. Brazilian soybean supply and domestic inventory trends also play important roles [4]. Corn - Price Changes: On June 13, compared with June 12, the price of corn 2507 decreased by 0.25% - 0.42%, and the price of corn starch 2507 decreased by 0.26% [7]. - Market Situation: The control of grain rights by traders, the supply and demand situation of downstream industries, and policy factors all influence corn prices [7]. Livestock (Pigs) - Price Changes: On June 13, compared with June 12, the price of the main pig contract increased by 8.00%, and the prices of different delivery months also changed slightly [12]. - Market Situation: Factors such as slaughter weight, secondary fattening, supply - demand balance, and policy support affect pig prices [12]. Sugar - Price Changes: On June 13, compared with June 12, the price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.20%, and the price of sugar 2509 increased by 0.30%. Spot prices in different regions decreased slightly [14]. - Industry Situation: Sugar production, sales, inventory, and import data all show different trends, indicating a complex market situation [14]. Cotton - Price Changes: On June 13, compared with June 12, the price of cotton 2509 decreased by 0.18%, and the price of cotton 2601 decreased by 0.11%. ICE US cotton increased by 0.55% [15]. - Market Situation: Supply - side factors (such as inventory and production expectations) and demand - side factors (such as downstream consumption and export data) jointly affect cotton prices [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight and spot market conditions of multiple commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and their related products, along with important fundamental information, macro - news, and capital flow data. It also analyzes the impact of weather on crop production and the influence of various economic data on the market [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - The closing price of BMD palm oil 08 was 3917.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.33%. Brent 08 (ICE) closed at 66.65, up 2.08% previously and 0.56% overnight. NYMEX crude oil 07 closed at 64.77, up 2.40% previously and 0.39% overnight [1]. - The latest price of the US dollar index was 99.19, up 0.50%. The exchange rate of CNY/USD was 7.1845, down 0.03% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot price in North China was 8590, with a basis of 500 and no change from the previous day. In East China, it was 8490, with a basis of 400 and a decrease of 20 from the previous day [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, in Shandong, the spot price was 2840, with a basis of - 159 [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information - From June 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 19.09%, with a 19.16% increase in yield and a 0.01% decrease in oil extraction rate [6]. - As of the week ending June 3, CBOT soybean long - positions decreased by 3097 lots to 191916 lots, and short - positions increased by 9517 lots to 131969 lots [7]. - The FAO vegetable oil price index in May averaged 152.2 points, down 5.8 points (3.7%) month - on - month but still 19.1% higher than the same period last year [9]. 3.4 Macro - news International News - The US non - farm payrolls in May were 139,000, higher than the expected 130,000. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, in line with expectations [15]. - The eurozone's Q1 GDP annual rate revision was 1.5%, higher than the expected 1.2% [15]. Domestic News - On June 6, the central bank conducted 1350 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1561 billion yuan on that day [17]. - China's central bank's gold reserves at the end of May were 73.83 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces from the previous month [17]. 3.5 Key Information Analysis - Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in April increased by 19.37% to 1.866 million tons, with a significant increase in production and the report's impact being negative [18]. - The USDA May supply - demand report increased US soybean exports in the 24/25 season by 25 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was estimated to be 350 million bushels [19]. 3.6 Capital Flow - On June 6, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 2.243 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 4.883 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net outflow of 7.127 billion yuan in stock index futures [22].

Core Viewpoint - The drought situation in the U.S. Midwest is gradually easing, which is beneficial for the growth of new season crops, although there are concerns about warm and dry weather affecting recently planted soybeans [1] Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market - As of the week ending May 29, U.S. old crop soybean export sales were 194,300 tons, close to the lower end of market expectations [1] - New crop sales were only 3,500 tons, indicating a lack of significant overseas demand [1] - The market is optimistic about U.S.-China trade relations, which could lead to increased imports of U.S. agricultural products, alleviating soybean supply concerns [1] Group 2: Argentine Soybean Harvest - Argentina has completed 89% of its soybean harvest, an increase of 4% from the previous week [1] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintains its production forecast at 50 million tons, slightly above the USDA's estimate of 49 million tons [1] Group 3: Malaysian Palm Oil Production - Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.07% month-on-month from May 1 to 31, with peninsula production up by 4.05% and East Malaysia production up by 1.90% [1] - April export volume rose by 24.6%, while March production increased by 17.66% [1] Group 4: Futures Market Trends - On Thursday, CBOT soybean futures rose moderately, closing about 0.5% higher, reaching a one-week high due to optimism in U.S.-China trade relations [1] - CBOT soybean oil futures experienced mixed results, closing about 0.3% lower due to weak export sales [1] - Domestic and international palm oil futures are experiencing narrow fluctuations due to increased production, while crude oil prices stabilize, creating a favorable atmosphere for oilseeds [1]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 短线整理蓄势 | 南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开启，进度远高于去年及五年均值，且未来十五 天降雨充沛缺乏天气炒作，按照 CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利。国内 缓和。5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上，供应有逐步增加趋势。中美贸易缓和利 | | | | 方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升，豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐 | | | | 步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低，存在补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为 | | 豆粕 | | | | | | 空豆粕，但由于 23%的关税依然存在，美豆暂无性价比，对豆粕价格实际利空影响 | | | | 有限。5 月美农报告偏利多。阿根廷暴雨导致收割延迟，减产担忧提振市场看多情 | | | | 绪，但实际减产预计有限。由于美豆种植顺利叠加国内豆粕累库，整体基本面偏空， | | | | 看多暂以技术性反弹对待，也可以关注反弹后的短空机会。3000 元至 3070 元区间 | | | | 未来两周阻力较大。主力【2925，2985】 | | 菜粕 ...