Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 2025 年 12 月 5 日星期五 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1184.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 1.67%；焦炭主力合约 J2601 收于 1651.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 1.66%。昨日夜盘，Jm2605 收于 1177.0，环比日盘收 | | | | | 盘下跌 0.59%；J2601 合约收于 1656.5，环比日盘收盘上涨 0.30%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、欧盟已宣布终止在世贸组织诉中国贸易限制措施案。商务部条约法律司负责人对此 | | | | | 表示，中方始终认为，欧方启动案件缺乏依据。因此，欧方决定终止案件审理是正确的 | | | | | 选择。 | | | | | 2、12 月 5 日，中国人民银行将以固定数 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is warm with the upcoming December Central Economic Work Conference and overseas interest - rate cut expectations. Steel products are in the off - season but continue to reduce inventory, with a firm performance on the futures market. Iron ore is under pressure due to the expected seasonal decline in hot metal. Coal and coke have rebounded from low levels on the futures market, while glass and soda ash are suppressed by oversupply [1][2]. - Overall, the off - season fundamentals have limited highlights. There is a possibility of positive news from the macro and policy fronts, and the futures market may have phased upward opportunities due to improved macro - sentiment [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Hot metal production has decreased significantly, downstream demand has declined, and steel mills are undergoing annual maintenance. Although the profitability rate of steel mills has slightly improved, the release of restocking demand is still slow. Overseas mine shipments have slightly increased month - on - month, with a decrease in Australian shipments, a significant increase in Brazilian shipments, and a slight decrease in non - mainstream shipments. The current arrival volume has decreased month - on - month, and port inventories have continued to accumulate. The rigid demand support is gradually weakening, and the release of restocking demand is slow. With macro expectations ahead of important meetings, short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate. The supply and demand of scrap steel have both decreased, but its cost - effectiveness has recovered after the spot price decline. The profits of electric furnaces are acceptable, and the demand for scrap steel from long - and short - process steel enterprises is still supported, with limited downward space. Scrap steel prices are expected to oscillate [2]. 2. Carbon Element - **Coke**: Coke supply continues to increase, while steel mill开工 has declined seasonally. Coke supply and demand are slightly loose. With the continuous weakening of spot cost support, there are still 1 - 2 rounds of supplementary price cuts expected, but due to the subsequent winter restocking expectations for raw materials, the possibility of multiple consecutive rounds of price cuts is low. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The current valuation level of coking coal on the futures market is still low. The low - production state of domestic coal mines will continue, and the subsequent winter restocking expectations of the middle and lower reaches are strong. There is still support at the bottom of the spot price. The near - month contracts may remain oscillating due to delivery, while the far - month contracts are less affected and are expected to oscillate with an upward trend [3]. 3. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in manganese silicon costs supports the price, but the market supply - demand situation remains loose. Further upward movement of the futures price will face spot warehouse receipt selling pressure, and caution is needed regarding the extent of further price increases [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The strong cost trend supports the bottom of the silicon iron price, but the market situation of weak supply and demand continues. Further upward movement of the futures price may face warehouse receipt selling pressure, and caution is needed regarding the upside potential of the main contract futures price [3]. 4. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventories of middle and downstream enterprises are moderately high. Currently, supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventories will always suppress prices, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Otherwise, prices may rise [3][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash industry price is close to the cost, with obvious bottom support. Recently, the cold - repair of glass has increased further, but the overall supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the oversupply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3][18]. 5. Individual Product Analysis - **Steel Products**: The demand has declined month - on - month. The overall spot market transactions are average. As the end of the year approaches, steel mill maintenance has increased, and hot metal production has continued to decline. Steel production has decreased from a high level, especially the production of rebar. The funds available for domestic construction sites have weakened month - on - month, and the demand for building materials has weakened significantly. Steel inventories continue to decline, but the current inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. With the weakening demand, the speed of inventory reduction is difficult to accelerate. The third - round and fifth - batch central ecological and environmental protection inspection teams have reported some typical environmental problems in Tianjin and Hebei, but the impact on the production of northern steel mills is limited. The profitability rate of steel mills has improved this week, and it is expected that steel production will not decline significantly in the future. With the upcoming December Central Economic Work Conference and overseas interest - rate cut expectations, the macro - environment is warm, and the futures market has the driving force to rebound from low levels, but the upside space is limited due to poor fundamentals [8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume and daily consumption of scrap steel have decreased, and steel mill restocking has slowed down. The supply and demand of scrap steel have both decreased, but its cost - effectiveness has recovered after the spot price decline. The profits of electric furnaces are acceptable, and the demand for scrap steel from long - and short - process steel enterprises is still supported, with limited downward space. Scrap steel prices are expected to oscillate [11]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The futures price of the main contract has oscillated strongly due to the warm trend of the black sector and the significant increase in manganese ore port quotations, which has strengthened the cost support for manganese silicon. The cost of manganese silicon has gradually increased, but the market supply - demand situation remains loose, and caution is needed regarding the extent of further price increases [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price of the main contract has risen due to the strong trend of black chain varieties and the increase in settlement electricity prices in Ningxia and Qinghai, which has strengthened the cost support and production - reduction expectations for silicon iron. The cost trend is strong, but the market situation of weak supply and demand continues. Caution is needed regarding the upside potential of the main contract futures price [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market will continue to fluctuate, with the price range determined by factors such as macro - trading expectations, seasonal demand, and inventory pressure [2]. - The sentiment of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon has improved, but the price is under pressure due to supply - demand imbalance [3][5]. - For coking coal and coke, the decline in spot auction prices of coking coal has narrowed, and the market is expected to be supported by potential downstream replenishment, with a strategy of buying far - month contracts at low prices [6]. - Iron ore faces significant upward pressure, with inventory accumulation expected to continue, and the operation strategy is to short at high prices [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On December 3rd, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of steel futures showed different changes, with some contracts rising and some falling. The spot prices of steel in different regions were relatively stable, and the basis also changed [1]. - The spot trading volume continued to decline on Wednesday, providing limited upward momentum for prices. The main contracts are shifting to 05. Macro factors such as US interest - rate cut expectations and domestic economic meetings are worth observing. The seasonal off - season in the industry has not formed a unified contradiction, and the supply - demand structure is relatively stable. Hot - rolled coils have inventory and production pressure, but there is no strong short - selling intention in the low - profit environment of steel mills. There may be some replenishment behavior in December, providing support for low prices [2]. - The trading strategy is to adopt a unilateral range - trading approach, consider participating in cash - and - carry arbitrage for hot - rolled coils, or use option strategies to assist in spot procurement and sales [8]. Silicon - iron and Manganese - silicon - Recently, the prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon have rebounded with the black - metal sector, but the driving force is insufficient. The steel price is under pressure, the direct demand is weakening, and the alloy factories have a high production volume despite poor profits. The supply - demand surplus pattern continues, and the price will be under pressure [5]. - Investment customers are advised to short at high prices, and industrial customers can use accumulation options to protect their spot positions [8]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the trading sentiment of coke in the domestic market is average, the decline in the spot auction prices of coking coal has narrowed, and some coal types have slightly increased. In the futures market, the performance is still weak. The steel data is good, and the coking coal price is affected by the slowdown in downstream replenishment. The market is expected to be supported by potential downstream replenishment in mid - to - late December, and the strategy is to buy far - month contracts at low prices [6]. - The speculative strategy is to mainly buy far - month contracts at low prices [8]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is at the upper limit of the range - bound movement. In the short term, the arrival of iron ore at ports has increased, and the shipment will remain stable. In the medium term, the inventory will continue to accumulate. The decline in steel - mill profits has affected production willingness, and the port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise. The operation strategy is to short at high prices [7]. - The strategy is to hold short positions [8].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is warm as the December Central Economic Work Conference is approaching and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. However, the current steel inventory level is still higher year - on - year, demand is under pressure to weaken, and the steel futures market lacks upward momentum. There is still an expectation of seasonal weakening of hot metal, the driving force for further upward movement of iron ore is insufficient, the spot prices of coking coal and coke remain weak, and the supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices [1][2]. - Overall, there are limited bright spots in the fundamentals during the off - season. There is still a possibility of positive news from the macro and policy fronts, and the futures market may have phased upward opportunities due to the boost of macro sentiment [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Sinter ore inventory decreased slightly despite the increase in the sinter ore output and its proportion in the furnace, but sinter powder inventory increased. With the continuous compression of profit margins, hot metal is expected to continue to weaken, and the support from rigid demand is gradually weakening. Overseas mine shipments increased slightly month - on - month, with a decrease in Australian shipments, a significant increase in Brazilian shipments, and a slight decrease in non - mainstream shipments. The arrivals in this period decreased month - on - month, port inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory of imported ore in national steel mills declined, with the replenishment demand not yet significantly released. After the previous price recovery, there is insufficient support for further upward movement, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - The arrival of scrap steel is low. After the price decline, its cost - performance has recovered, and the demand for scrap steel from both long - and short - process steel enterprises is supported. The downside space is limited, and the scrap steel price is expected to oscillate [2]. Carbon Element - Coke supply has increased slightly, and steel mill开工 has declined seasonally. Coke supply and demand are slightly loose. Coupled with the continuous weakening of spot cost support, there are still expectations of 1 - 2 rounds of supplementary price cuts. However, there are still expectations of winter storage and replenishment for raw materials in the future, and the possibility of continuous multiple rounds of price cuts is low. The futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal [3]. - Although the fundamentals of coking coal have slightly deteriorated marginally, the current valuation level of the futures market is still low. The low - output state of domestic coal mines will continue, and the expectations of winter storage and replenishment by the mid - and downstream are strong. There is still support at the bottom of the spot price. The near - month contracts may remain oscillating due to the impact of delivery, while the far - month contracts are less affected, and are expected to oscillate with an upward trend [3][11]. Alloys - The price center of ore has risen, and the cost of ferromanganese silicon remains relatively high. However, the market supply - demand is in a loose state, and the price is under great upward pressure. It is difficult to transfer the cost downstream. It is expected that the futures price will mainly operate at a low level [3]. - The strong cost supports the bottom of the ferrosilicon price. However, the market supply - demand is in a weak state, and the price increase is still weak. The cost transfer downstream is not smooth, and the futures price of the main contract is expected to mainly operate at a low level [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of the mid - and downstream is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply - demand is still in a surplus state. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise [3][6][12]. - The price of the soda ash industry is approaching the cost, and the bottom support is obvious. Recently, the cold - repair of glass has further increased, and the overall supply - demand is still in a surplus state. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the surplus pattern of supply will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [6][15]. Specific Varieties - **Steel**: The demand is under pressure in the off - season, and the futures market lacks upward momentum. The spot market trading is generally average. The profitability of steel mills continues to decline, but the willingness to reduce production is limited. The overall steel inventory continues to decline, but the current inventory level is still higher year - on - year, and the demand is facing the pressure to weaken. The third - round and fifth - batch of the Central Ecological and Environmental Protection Inspection Team has reported some typical environmental problems in Tianjin and Hebei. Although it has limited impact on the production of northern steel mills, the macro - environment is warm, and the futures market still has the driving force to rebound from a low level, but the upside space is limited [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the price is expected to oscillate. The overseas mine shipments increased slightly month - on - month, the arrivals decreased month - on - month. The rigid demand for hot metal is gradually weakening, the port inventory continues to accumulate, the inventory of imported ore in steel mills has declined, and the replenishment demand has not been significantly released. After the previous price recovery, there is insufficient support for further upward movement [8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival of scrap steel at steel mills is low, and the price is expected to oscillate. The arrival volume this week decreased slightly compared with last week and was lower than the level of the same period last year. The demand from both long - and short - process steel enterprises is supported, and the downside space is limited [9]. - **Coke**: The supply and demand are slightly loose, and the price is still under pressure. The supply has increased slightly, the demand has declined slightly, the inventory has slightly accumulated, but the overall contradiction is not significant. There are still expectations of 1 - 2 rounds of supplementary price cuts, but the possibility of continuous multiple rounds of price cuts is low, and the futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal [10]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply remains at a low level, and coal mines continue to accumulate inventory. The domestic coal mine production continues at a low level, the imports from Mongolia remain high, the demand from the mid - and downstream has decreased, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The futures market is expected to oscillate, with the near - month contracts remaining stable and the far - month contracts expected to oscillate with an upward trend [10][11]. - **Glass**: The demand is still weak, and supply reduction is still needed. The supply is expected to decline in December. The demand is weak compared with the same period last year, and the large inventory of the mid - stream always suppresses the futures valuation. If there is no further cold - repair, the price may decline [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply remains at a low level, and the supply - demand is still in a surplus state. The supply and demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. The industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long run, the price center will decline [15]. - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: The cost transfer downstream is not smooth, and the inventory accumulation puts pressure on the price. The supply - demand is loose, and the price is under pressure. The cost support still exists, but the supply contraction is limited, and it is difficult to relieve the inventory pressure. It is expected that the futures price will mainly operate at a low level [16]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand is in a weak state, and the price increase is weak. The cost support is strong, but the supply - demand is still weak, and it is difficult to transfer the cost downstream. It is expected that the futures price of the main contract will mainly operate at a low level [18]. Index Information - On December 3, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures' commodity index was 2270.14, down 0.22%; the commodity 20 index was 2587.91, down 0.13%; the industrial product index was 2219.45, down 0.41% [101]. - The steel industry chain index on December 3, 2025, was 1990.66, with a daily decline of 0.30%, a 5 - day increase of 0.53%, a monthly decline of 0.39%, and a year - to - date decline of 5.58% [103].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - **Steel**: Adopt a unilateral range trading strategy; consider participating in cash-and-carry arbitrage for hot-rolled coils or use option strategies to assist spot procurement and sales [3] - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: Investment clients should short on rallies, and industrial clients can use accumulating options to protect spot exposures [3] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Speculators should mainly go long on far-month contracts at low prices [3] - **Iron Ore**: Hold short positions [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The upward momentum of steel prices is weak, and the black sector is in a range-bound pattern. There is support at low prices due to potential restocking, and it is necessary to wait for the implementation of the production cut logic and observe the start of winter storage restocking [3] - The prices of silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy are under pressure due to over - supply and weak demand, despite strong cost support [3] - The decline in coking coal spot auction prices has narrowed, and some coal varieties have rebounded slightly. The futures are still weak. It is expected that the previous low will form strong support, and far - month contracts can be bought at low prices [3] - Iron ore is at the upper limit of the range. Due to increasing inventory pressure, it is advisable to short on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **December 2nd Closing Prices and Changes**: The far - month contracts RB2605, HC2605, I2605, J2605, JM2605 closed at 3169.00 yuan/ton, 3322.00 yuan/ton, 775.50 yuan/ton, 1764.50 yuan/ton, and 1179.50 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 25.00 yuan, 15.00 yuan, 3.50 yuan, 21.50 yuan, and 15.50 yuan, and the corresponding percentage changes were 0.80%, 0.45%, 0.45%, 1.23%, and 1.33%. The near - month (main) contracts RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, JM2601 closed at 3133.00 yuan/ton, 3325.00 yuan/ton, 800.50 yuan/ton, 1629.50 yuan/ton, and 1096.50 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 11.00 yuan, 10.00 yuan, 4.00 yuan, 39.00 yuan, and 20.00 yuan, and the corresponding percentage changes were 0.35%, 0.30%, 0.50%, 2.45%, and 1.86% [1] - **Cross - month Spreads and Changes**: On December 2nd, the cross - month spreads RB2601 - 2605, HC2601 - 2605, I2601 - 2605, J2601 - 2605, JM2601 - 2605 were - 36.00 yuan/ton, 3.00 yuan/ton, 25.00 yuan/ton, - 135.00 yuan/ton, and - 83.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 3.00 yuan, - 4.00 yuan, 1.50 yuan, 15.50 yuan, and 7.00 yuan [1] - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits and Changes**: On December 2nd, the coil - to - rebar spread, rebar - to - ore ratio, coal - to - coke ratio, rebar paper profit, and coking paper profit were 192.00 yuan, 3.91, 1.49, - 60.33 yuan, and 171.16 yuan respectively, with changes of - 1.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, - 5.18 yuan, and 5.35 yuan [1] Spot Market - **December 2nd Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, Tangshan billet, and the Platts Index were 3320.00 yuan/ton, 3240.00 yuan/ton, 3560.00 yuan/ton, 2990.00 yuan/ton, and 107.80 respectively, with changes of 10.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, and 0.45 [1] - **Base Prices and Changes**: On December 2nd, the base prices of HC main contract, RB main contract, I main contract, J main contract, and JM main contract were - 5.00 yuan/ton, 187.00 yuan/ton, 9.00 yuan/ton, 158.19 yuan/ton, and 123.50 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 2.00 yuan, 11.00 yuan, - 2.00 yuan, - 10.00 yuan, and - 128.50 yuan [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [8] Core View of the Report - The macro - environment is warm with the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December and overseas interest - rate cut expectations, but the steel inventory is still high year - on - year, and demand faces weakening pressure, so the steel futures market has limited upward momentum. Iron ore is supported by winter storage expectations, coal - coke spot prices are weak due to demand pressure, and the supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash suppresses the futures prices [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Element - Iron water production is decreasing, steel mill profitability is compressing, and there are still blast furnace maintenance plans. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate as the upward support is insufficient after the previous price rebound. Scrap steel arrivals are low, and its price is expected to oscillate as the cost - performance improves after the price drop [4]. 2. Carbon Element - Coke supply has slightly increased, and steel mill开工 is seasonally declining. There are 1 - 2 rounds of supplementary price - cut expectations for coke, but the possibility of multiple consecutive rounds of cuts is low. The coke futures market is expected to follow coking coal. Coking coal fundamentals have slightly deteriorated, but the low valuation and winter storage expectations support the price. The near - month contract may oscillate, and the far - month contract is expected to be slightly stronger [5]. 3. Alloy - For manganese - silicon, the cost is relatively high, but the supply - demand is loose, and the price is expected to run at a low level. For ferrosilicon, the cost supports the price bottom, but the supply - demand is weak, and the price is also expected to run at a low level [5]. 4. Glass and Soda Ash - For glass, if there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. For soda ash, the price is close to the cost with obvious bottom support, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [5][8]. 5. Specific Product Analysis Steel - The spot market trading is average, steel mill profitability is decreasing, and demand is weakening. Although the macro - environment is warm, the upward space is limited due to the poor fundamentals [9]. Iron Ore - The port trading volume has increased, and the price is expected to oscillate as the upward support is insufficient and the winter storage demand has not been released [10]. Scrap Steel - The arrivals are low, and the price is expected to oscillate as the cost - performance has improved and the demand from long - and short - process steel enterprises is supported [11]. Coke - The supply has slightly increased, and the market is slightly loose. There are 1 - 2 rounds of supplementary price - cut expectations, and the futures market is expected to follow coking coal [13]. Coking Coal - The spot price has a bottom support. The near - month contract may oscillate, and the far - month contract is expected to be slightly stronger [14]. Glass - If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [15]. Soda Ash - The price is close to the cost with obvious bottom support, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [17]. Manganese - Silicon - The cost is relatively high, but the supply - demand is loose, and the price is expected to run at a low level [18]. Ferrosilicon - The cost supports the price bottom, but the supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to run at a low level [20].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Overall, the cost of raw materials supports the prices of finished steel products, and profits are gradually improving. The steel market may anticipate future trends, leading to a slightly upward - trending price movement. The expected price range for rebar is between 3000 - 3300 yuan/ton, and for hot - rolled coil, it is between 3200 - 3500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed and downstream consumption. However, a decline in steel enterprise profitability may trigger negative feedback [3]. - In the short term, the fundamentals of iron ore have improved, and its valuation has been restored. The price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. There is no significant supply - demand contradiction currently, and the accumulation rate of port inventory has slowed down [22]. - For coking coal, the supply change is limited, but due to the pressure on terminal steel mill profits and the continuous reduction of molten iron production, the supply - demand balance has shifted to a slight surplus. Short - term coal prices will remain under pressure. For coke, as the cost of coking coal decreases, the profit of coking enterprises has been restored, and subsequent coke supply is expected to increase, potentially leading to inventory accumulation [35]. - Ferroalloys face high inventory and weak demand. Although the cost may decrease due to the impact of coking coal supply guarantee, the supply reduction trend limits the downward price space. It is expected to oscillate weakly. Although the strength of finished steel prices may drive a short - term rebound, ferroalloys are likely to return to their weak fundamentals after the rebound [51]. - Soda ash is mainly priced based on cost. Without a trend - based production reduction, its valuation lacks upward flexibility. The acceleration of glass cold - repair has weakened the rigid demand for soda ash. Although exports remain high, the high inventory of the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price [67]. - In December, there are expectations of glass production line cold - repair, which will affect long - term pricing and market expectations. The near - term contract will follow the current market situation. Recently, due to the acceleration of cold - repair and the expected decline in daily melting volume, the short - term price of glass has strengthened, but the sustainability is uncertain. High inventory levels during the off - season pose pressure on the spot market [92]. Summary by Category Steel - **Futures Price**: On December 2, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3133 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 3169 yuan/ton, and 10 contract was 3208 yuan/ton. The closing price of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3325 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 3322 yuan/ton, and 10 contract was 3338 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot Price**: On December 2, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3331 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3310 yuan/ton [9][11]. - **Price Difference**: The 01 contract spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 192 yuan/ton, and the spot price difference in Shanghai was 10 yuan/ton [16]. Iron Ore - **Futures Price**: On December 2, 2025, the closing price of 01 contract was 800.5 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 775.5 yuan/ton, and 09 contract was 751.5 yuan/ton [23]. - **Spot Price**: On December 2, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 797 yuan/ton, Rizhao Carajas powder was 890 yuan/ton, and Rizhao Super Special powder was 690 yuan/ton [23]. - **Fundamentals**: As of November 28, 2025, the daily average molten iron production was 234.68 tons, 45 - port cargo clearance volume was 330.58 tons, and the global shipping volume was 3323.2 tons [30]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Spread**: On December 2, 2025, the 09 - 01 spread of coking coal was 148 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 01 spread of coke was 201 yuan/ton [39]. - **Spot Price**: On December 2, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1580 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1430 yuan/ton [42]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On December 2, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 2 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5200 yuan/ton [52]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On December 2, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 158 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5530 yuan/ton [53]. Soda Ash - **Futures Price**: On December 2, 2025, the 05 contract price was 1244 yuan/ton, the 09 contract price was 1307 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price was 1183 yuan/ton [68]. - **Spot Price**: On December 2, 2025, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, and the light - soda market price was 1250 yuan/ton [68]. Glass - **Futures Price**: On December 2, 2025, the 05 contract price was 1145 yuan/ton, the 09 contract price was 1195 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price was 1034 yuan/ton [93]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 28, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 162%, and in Hubei, it was 160% [94].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Adopt a unilateral range trading strategy; consider participating in cash-and-carry arbitrage for hot-rolled coils and use options strategies to assist spot procurement and sales [5]. - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Investment clients should short on rallies, and industrial clients can use accumulating options to protect their spot exposure [5]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Speculators should focus on buying far-month contracts at low prices [5]. - Iron Ore: Hold short positions [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to run slightly stronger, with prices fluctuating in a narrow range. There may be some room for a decline in iron ore production in December, and attention should be paid to the subsequent winter storage replenishment drive [3]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are expected to be under pressure and weaken due to the over - supply situation, despite the strengthening cost support [5]. - The first round of coke price cuts has been fully implemented, but the coking coal and coke futures have shown signs of stabilizing and rebounding. It is recommended to buy far - month contracts at low prices, considering the possible downstream replenishment in mid - to - late December [5]. - Iron ore is facing significant pressure at the upper end of the range. Due to the expected increase in inventory and the decline in steel mill profitability, it is advisable to short on rallies [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On Monday, both futures and spot prices rose, and trading volume increased. In December, focus on macro - trading expectations, such as the US interest rate cut expectations and China's Central Economic Work Conference [3]. - In the industrial sector, the seasonal off - season has not yet formed a consistent negative narrative. The inventory and production pressure of hot - rolled coils are prominent, which restricts the upside of prices and market participants' willingness to hold inventory. However, funds are not actively shorting steel prices due to low steel mill profitability [3]. - After December, there may be some appropriate inventory replenishment in the industrial sector, providing support at low prices. The iron ore production may decline in December, and then attention should be paid to the start of the winter storage replenishment drive [3]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon have rebounded with the black - metal sector, but the driving force is still insufficient [4]. - The steel price is under pressure, steel mill profits are shrinking, iron ore production is decreasing, and direct demand is expected to weaken. With the arrival of the off - season for terminal demand, the negative feedback pressure is gradually accumulating [5]. - Alloy factories have poor profits, but production remains high, and there is insufficient motivation for self - reduction or production control. The medium - term over - supply pressure remains high, and inventory and warehouse receipts are accumulating [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - In the spot market, the first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, the coking coal auction failure rate is high, and most transaction prices have fallen. Affected by the futures rebound, some Mongolian coal traders' quotes are temporarily stable, but market trading is average [5]. - In the futures market, on the first trading day of December, market risk appetite is good. With many domestic meetings in December, market expectations are high. Although the first - round coke price cuts have been implemented, the previous low points in the futures market have priced in 3 - 4 rounds of price cuts. With the increase in risk appetite, coking coal and coke futures have shown signs of stabilizing and rebounding [5]. - The steel data is still good, the apparent demand is seasonally weak but still resilient, production has increased, and the de - stocking slope is similar to the same period. The industrial contradictions are not prominent. Coking coal prices are weak due to the slowdown in downstream replenishment, but there are still fluctuations on the supply side [5]. Iron Ore - Iron ore has reached the upper end of the range - bound trading. In the short term, the arrival volume has increased, and the subsequent shipment volume is expected to remain stable, with no significant unexpected fluctuations [5]. - In the medium term, inventory will continue to accumulate under pressure. Some steel mills in southern China are facing increased losses and weakening demand, leading to maintenance. The steel mill iron ore production has slightly decreased to 268 million tons (-1.6). Steel mill profitability is affecting production willingness, and it is expected that subsequent fluctuations will mainly come from steel mill production cuts, which will lead to a continuous increase in port inventory [5]. - Due to inventory pressure, it is difficult for iron ore to break through the upper end of the range, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is warm, and the steel plate is strong. Although there are disturbances in the steel supply, the actual impact on production is limited. Iron ore has strong support, and coking coal and coke have rebounded from low levels [1]. - In the off - season, steel continues to destock, with limited fundamental contradictions. There may be positive news from the macro and policy fronts, and the plate may have phased upward opportunities due to improved macro - sentiment [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron water production is expected to decline, and the rigid demand support for iron ore is weakening. Overseas mine shipments have increased slightly, port inventories are accumulating, and steel mills' import ore inventories are decreasing. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate [2][8]. - Scrap steel arrivals are stable, and after the price drop, its cost - effectiveness has increased. The demand from both long - and short - process steel enterprises is supported, and the price is expected to oscillate [2][9]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke supply has increased slightly, and steel mill开工 has declined seasonally. Coke supply and demand are slightly loose. There is an expectation of winter storage replenishment, and the futures price is expected to follow coking coal to oscillate [2][10]. - The fundamentals of coking coal have slightly deteriorated, but the current valuation of the futures is too low. There is a strong expectation of winter storage replenishment, and the spot price has bottom support. Near - month contracts may oscillate, while far - month contracts are expected to oscillate strongly [2][11]. 3.3 Alloys - The cost of ferromanganese silicon remains relatively high, but the market supply and demand are loose, and the price is expected to run at a low level [3][15]. - The cost of ferrosilicon supports the price bottom, but the market supply and demand are weak, and the price increase is weak. The futures price of the main contract is expected to run at a low level [3][16]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass supply may be disturbed, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, otherwise, the price will rise [6][12]. - The price of soda ash is close to the cost, with obvious bottom support. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [6][14]. 3.5 Steel - The macro - environment is warm, and the steel plate is strong. Although the steel mill profitability is decreasing, the willingness to reduce production is limited. The demand is under pressure to weaken, and the inventory is decreasing, but the inventory level is still high year - on - year [7]. 3.6 Commodity Index - On December 1, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed an increase. The special indices such as the Commodity 20 Index and the Industrial Products Index also rose. The steel industry chain index had a daily increase of 1.24%, a 5 - day increase of 0.62%, a 1 - month decrease of 1.31%, and a year - to - date decrease of 5.33% [99][100]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - This week, the coking coal and coke markets showed an overall pattern of weak fluctuations, with intensified gaming between supply and demand sides. Affected by the increasing bearish sentiment in the market, speculative demand significantly weakened, leading to a large accumulation of inventory in upstream mines and coal washing plants, and prices continued to bottom out. There is a strong atmosphere of expecting a price drop in coke, and steel mills may officially propose the first round of coke price cuts next week. - Currently, the spot sentiment is poor, the fundamentals have slightly deteriorated marginally, and both the spot and futures prices continue to be under pressure. However, the current valuation level of the futures market is too low, and the low - production state of domestic coal mines will continue. There are strong expectations for mid - and downstream winter storage replenishment in the future, and there is still support at the bottom of the spot price. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The coking coal and coke markets were weak and fluctuating this week. Due to bearish sentiment, speculative demand weakened, and upstream inventory accumulated. Coke price cuts are expected next week. - Despite current pressure, low futures valuation, continued low coal mine production, and winter storage expectations suggest the market will likely oscillate. [1] Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - The total coking coal inventory was 2106.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20.67 million tons (-0.97%). - The total coke inventory was 884.68 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.05 million tons (0.46%). - The daily average pig iron output of steel mills was 234.68 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 million tons (-0.68%). - The profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 46 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 27 yuan/ton (142.11%). [3]