美联储主席鲍威尔：劳动力市场数据总体显示市场稳健，但存在下行风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the inflow of labor into the market has significantly slowed down, largely due to the impact of immigration policies [1] Group 1 - The labor market's inflow rate has decreased markedly [1] - Immigration policies are a major factor contributing to this slowdown [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔表示劳动力市场并未走弱后，美债收益率走高。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：劳动力市场下行风险显然存在。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：劳动力市场状况大致平衡。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged despite internal disagreements and external pressures, reflecting a cautious approach to current economic conditions [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9 to 2 to keep the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5% [1] - This decision impacts the cost of overnight borrowing among banks, influencing the broader economic funding landscape [1] Group 2: Internal Disagreements - Two Federal Reserve officials, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, opposed the decision, advocating for a rate cut due to controlled inflation and a potentially weakening labor market [1] - This marks the first instance since late 1993 where multiple officials voted against the interest rate decision [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, highlighting three distinct factions with differing views on when to implement such cuts [1][5][10]. Group 1: Internal Divisions - The Federal Reserve is divided into three main camps: a faction eager for immediate rate cuts due to concerns over the labor market, a middle group waiting for more data on tariff impacts, and a cautious faction preferring to see clear signs of economic weakness before acting [1][5][10]. - The middle camp, represented by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, emphasizes the instability of inflation forecasts and the risks of waiting too long to cut rates, suggesting a need for further data analysis over the next two months [6][10]. - The more aggressive faction, including Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, advocates for immediate rate cuts, arguing that delaying action could worsen labor market conditions [7][8]. Group 2: Economic Signals and Political Pressure - The article notes that the internal divisions are exacerbated by inflation concerns stemming from tariff threats, which have previously led the Fed to pause rate cuts [2][3]. - Political pressure from former President Trump complicates the Fed's decision-making process, as he has been vocal about urging rate cuts and has made public appearances to influence Fed Chair Jerome Powell [9][10]. - Economic data presents mixed signals, with stock markets reaching record highs while long-term bond yields remain elevated, suggesting that the economy may be strong enough to withstand current interest rates [11][12]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Market participants are closely monitoring the Fed's internal debates, particularly Powell's comments during the upcoming press conference, for indications of a potential rate cut in September [14][15]. - Additional employment and inflation data over the next two months will be crucial for the Fed's decision-making, especially for the middle camp that stresses the importance of this data in making informed policy choices [16].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a recent decline in job vacancies in the U.S. labor market, with June's vacancies dropping from a revised 7.71 million in May to 7.44 million, indicating a subtle market adjustment while remaining above the average level of the past year [1][3] - The decrease in job vacancies is not confined to specific industries but is widespread across sectors such as accommodation and food services, healthcare, and finance and insurance, suggesting a multifaceted cooling trend in the labor market [3] - Despite the reduction in job vacancies, the overall demand for labor remains relatively strong, as the current levels are still higher than pre-pandemic averages, although hiring speeds have slowed and the time for unemployed individuals to find new jobs has increased [3] Group 2 - The upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting is expected to focus on these labor market changes, with Chairman Jerome Powell previously describing the labor market as "robust" while acknowledging uncertainties related to tariff inflation [3] - The job openings to unemployment ratio, a key indicator monitored by the Federal Reserve, currently stands at 1.1, significantly lower than the peak of 2:1 in 2022, providing a new perspective on the health of the labor market [4] - The stability of the layoff rate at low levels and the decrease in the resignation rate reflect a decline in confidence among individuals regarding their ability to find new jobs, indicating new challenges in the supply-demand balance of the labor market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the US dollar is primarily attributed to progress in trade relations, with agreements reached between the US and major economies, reducing the likelihood of escalating trade conflicts [3][4]. Trade Relations - The US has successfully negotiated trade agreements with the UK, Japan, and the EU before the August 1 deadline, alleviating concerns about the US economic outlook and debt issues [3]. - Ongoing negotiations between the US and China aim to extend the trade truce by three months, with market focus on the potential outcomes of the leaders' meeting and the duration of the tariff suspension [3]. Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to take action in its upcoming meeting, as the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to manifest in the third quarter [4]. - Rising import costs due to tariffs are increasing production costs for businesses, heightening the risk of economic slowdown, which may eventually lead to higher inflation for consumers and the labor market [4]. - Fed Chair Powell has indicated that if inflation proves to be temporary, the FOMC may restart the rate-cutting cycle, suggesting a shift in focus towards labor market performance rather than inflation outlook [4]. Employment Data - Investors are advised to monitor the upcoming US non-farm payroll report, with expectations of a 109,000 increase in July employment figures [4]. - A slowdown in the labor market could significantly raise expectations for a rate cut in September, potentially putting more pressure on the dollar [4]. Long-term Outlook - In the medium term, the US dollar assets face uncertainties related to tariffs, inflation, and fiscal deficits [5]. - The US's large-scale fiscal measures have not effectively addressed its debt issues, leading to a decline in confidence in dollar assets and prompting investors to diversify into other currencies [5].

Group 1 - The number of job openings in the U.S. decreased from a revised 7.71 million in May to 7.44 million in June, below the market expectation of 7.5 million, indicating a cooling labor market but still a stable overall demand for workers [1] - The decline in job openings was broad-based, primarily driven by the accommodation and food services, healthcare, and finance and insurance sectors [1] - The job openings remain above pre-pandemic average levels, suggesting a relatively healthy demand for workers despite a slowdown in hiring and longer time for unemployed individuals to find new positions [1] Group 2 - The hiring rate in June slowed to 3.3%, the lowest level since November of the previous year, while layoffs remained low and voluntary resignations were scarce, indicating decreased confidence in finding new jobs [1] - The ratio of unemployed workers to job openings remained at 1.1, down from a peak of 2:1 in 2022, which is closely monitored by Federal Reserve officials as a measure of labor supply and demand balance [2] - An independent report indicated that consumer confidence in July improved as concerns about the broader economy and labor market outlook eased [2]