2025.09.15 品浩（PIMCO）董事总经理兼经济学家威尔丁（Tiffany Wilding）对第一财经表示，最新公布的数据整 体显示美国劳动力市场趋弱，而通胀仍受关税政策推动，核心CPI环比上涨0.35%，录得自4月初以来最 强劲的月度表现。但相比通胀数据，失业救济申请的上升更值得关注。劳动力市场已经停滞，并且对负 面冲击更为脆弱，"因此，我们预计最新的数据结果不会改变美联储的政策展望，美联储此次仍会降息 25个基点，50个基点的大幅降息也在讨论范围内。全年，我们仍预测美联储将累计降息75个基点。" 东方汇理投资研究院主管迪芬得（Monica Defend）也告诉第一财经，美联储的重点正在从通胀转向就 业和经济疲软，同时美联储面临的政治压力也正在上升，"总体而言，我们保持今年将有三次降息，第 一次发生在9月。" 本文字数：2788，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 |第一财经 后歆桐 本周，全球市场将再迎"央行超级周"。除美联储外，日本央行、加拿大央行和英国央行也将相继公布利 率决议。 美联储会"大幅降息"吗？ 美联储将于9月16~17日召开货币政策会议。近期公布的数据显示，8月美国消费者物价指数（CPI）比 ...

13 September 2025 | 10:59PM EDT Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 | elsie.peng@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Pierfrancesco Mei +1(212)902-8809 | pierfrancesco.mei@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jessica Rindels +1(972)368-1516 | jessica.rindels@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. US Daily: What D ...

自特朗普重返总统职位以来，美国首次降息成为本周全球金融市场的焦点。从周三的加拿大央行与美联 储，到周四的英国央行，再到周五的日本央行，主要央行将接连调整借贷成本、或释放政策信号，为今 年最后一个季度定调。 到本周末，涉及全球经济总量五分之二的利率（其中包括七国集团中四个主要经济体）将被重新设定或 确认。其中，美国备受特朗普白宫期待的降息，预计将成为重头戏。 美联储与特朗普的博弈 美联储政策僵局依旧，特朗普持续呼吁大幅降息，而美联储主席鲍威尔则担心关税推升的通胀风险。不 过，近期劳动力市场疲软的迹象为市场普遍预计的25个基点降息提供了理由。 彭博经济学家点评称："我们预计联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将降息25个基点。原因并非经济数据 在物价稳定与充分就业两方面均发出信号，而是市场已有预期，白宫也在施压。鲍威尔认为，这是抵御 更多对美联储独立性威胁的必要之举。" 与此同时，加拿大和挪威的央行也预计会采取同样幅度的降息。但其他发达经济体央行的动作可能更加 谨慎。英国央行在8月降息后预计本次将维持利率不变；日本央行则依旧走在收紧货币政策的道路上， 但尚未释放近期加息信号。印尼、巴西和南非等主要新兴经济体央行则大概率 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve, where prioritizing the labor market may exacerbate inflation, while neglecting it could lead to recession [1] - The August non-farm payroll report revealed only 22,000 new jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000, indicating a cooling labor market [2][3] - The ISM services PMI report showed a strong expansion in the services sector, contrasting with the weak employment report, suggesting a complex economic landscape [1][4] Group 2 - The report indicates that the labor market is still creating jobs, but the growth rate is far below the threshold needed to maintain stable unemployment rates, raising concerns about a potential recession [3] - The unemployment rate increased to 4.3% in August, the highest since 2021, while the broader U6 unemployment rate stands at 7.9%, indicating a potential underestimation of labor market slack [5][6] - The average hourly wage growth is reported at 3.7%, but when adjusted for money supply inflation, the real purchasing power is declining, highlighting structural issues in the economy [7] Group 3 - Following the employment report, the market reacted sharply, with the S&P 500 index dropping nearly 1% and bond yields declining, while gold prices surged, reflecting concerns over the dollar's purchasing power [8] - The strong performance of the ISM services report suggests that GDP growth may accelerate in the coming quarters, despite the cooling labor market [4][8] - Overall, the article emphasizes that while the U.S. economy has not entered a recession, there are significant imbalances that need to be monitored [8]

Core Insights - In September, U.S. consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level since May, with long-term inflation expectations rising for the second consecutive month due to concerns over the labor market and prices [2][3]. Group 1: Consumer Confidence - The preliminary consumer confidence index for September fell from 58.2 in August to 55.4, below market expectations [3]. - The current conditions index decreased from 61.7 in August to 61.2, while the expectations index dropped from 55.9 to 51.8 [4]. Group 2: Inflation Expectations - Consumers expect a 4.8% annualized increase in prices over the next year, unchanged from the previous month [3]. - Long-term inflation expectations for the next five to ten years rose to 3.9%, up from 3.5% the previous month [3]. Group 3: Labor Market Concerns - There is a significant increase in consumers' perceived probability of personal unemployment, indicating heightened anxiety about potential negative developments in the labor market [3]. - Recent data shows a substantial slowdown in the labor market, with only 22,000 jobs added in August [3]. Group 4: Tariff Concerns - Approximately 60% of surveyed consumers expressed concerns regarding tariffs, contributing to the decline in consumer confidence [4]. - Confidence among Republicans and independents fell to a four-month low, while there was a slight improvement among Democrats [4].

智通财经APP获悉，美国9月消费者信心意外下滑至5月以来最低水平，长期通胀预期连续第二个月上升，显示 就业市场与物价担忧持续压制经济前景。 密歇根大学消费者调查主管Joanne Hsu表示："消费者对个人失业的预期概率今年以来大幅上升，并在9月继续 走高，这表明他们担心劳动力市场的不利变化会对自身产生影响。"她补充道："此外，高企的物价压力让消费 者感到持续被挤压。" 近期发布的数据描绘出劳动力市场明显放缓且通胀顽固的局面。8月美国非农就业仅增加2.2万个岗位，创今年 最低增幅；同时，消费者价格以年内最快速度上涨，食品杂货和汽油等家庭主要开支明显攀升。 根据密歇根大学周五公布的初值数据，9月消费者信心指数降至55.4，低于8月的58.2，且几乎低于彭博调查中 所有经济学家的预测。数据显示，消费者预计未来一年物价年化上涨4.8%，与上月持平；对未来5至10年的通 胀预期则跃升至3.9%，高于8月的3.5%。 调查还显示，约60%的受访者自发提及关税问题，反映出持续的贸易政策不确定性正在侵蚀消费者情绪。分项 数据显示，9月现况指数从8月的61.7降至61.2，预期指数则从55.9降至51.8。 从政治立场来看，共 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly declined, reinforcing calls for interest rate cuts, with a month-over-month increase of 0.1% and a year-over-year increase of 2.6%, both below expectations of 0.3% and 3.3% respectively [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a slight month-over-month increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, which may support the notion that inflation is not out of control, providing the Federal Reserve with more room to consider rate cuts [3][4] - Labor market indicators show signs of weakness, with ADP and non-farm payroll data declining, and the JOLTS report indicating a softening labor market [4] Group 2: Market Reactions - The stock market showed mixed reactions, with the Dow Jones index dropping 220 points, while the S&P 500 rose by 20 points, largely driven by Oracle Corporation (ORCL) which surged 36% after reporting strong earnings [4][5] - The S&P 500 index's slight increase was significantly influenced by ORCL, which accounted for a 0.66% rise in the index, despite the overall market showing weakness [6] - Bond markets saw an uptick, with TLT and TLH rising by 0.6% and 0.4% respectively, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell by 5 basis points to 4.03% [7] Group 3: Commodity Prices - Oil prices remained stable at $63.35 per barrel, maintaining support and resistance levels between $62.85 and $64.25 [8] - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, initially rising by $14 to $3640, but then dropping by $25 to $3615, as traders adjusted expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [8]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon stated that the firm expects the busiest week for IPOs since July 2021, following the successful IPO of Swedish buy-now-pay-later company Klarna [1] - Solomon emphasized that Goldman Sachs' IPO activity will surpass any period since July 2021, driven by a recovery in the stock market and a surge in tech stock IPOs [1] - Notable IPO performances include Figma Inc and Bullish, both seeing stock prices more than double on their first trading day, while Firefly Aerospace's stock soared nearly 56% [1] Group 2 - The current M&A activity has increased by approximately 32% year-over-year, with transactions exceeding $10 billion experiencing a 100% growth [1] - Despite the vibrant IPO window, the market faces multiple risks, including inflation rates remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target and signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market [2] - Solomon highlighted uncertainties surrounding tariff policies and their potential impact on consumer spending, noting the difficulty in quantifying the specific effects on economic growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential candidacy of Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller for the position of Fed Chair, highlighting his recent warnings about the labor market and his evolving relationship with the Trump administration [2][3][4]. Group 1: Waller's Economic Insights - Waller warned in July that private sector hiring was "approaching stall speed," indicating a potential downturn in the labor market, despite a stable unemployment rate of 4.1% at that time [2]. - His predictions were validated by subsequent weak employment reports in July and August, reinforcing his credibility as an economist [2]. - Waller's ability to articulate a coherent framework for interest rate cuts has enhanced his reputation on Wall Street, distinguishing him from other candidates who may lack such qualities [4]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Waller's chances for the Fed Chair position appear limited due to his lack of visibility within Trump's inner circle and the political advisors associated with the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement [3]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has begun interviewing candidates for the Fed Chair position, with Waller being one of the three strong contenders mentioned by Trump, alongside Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh [2][3]. - The political climate surrounding the Federal Reserve has become contentious, with Trump expressing dissatisfaction with the institution's traditional independence and targeting Fed officials he disagrees with [3]. Group 3: Waller's Background and Qualifications - Waller's unique background, having spent much of his career in academia before joining the St. Louis Fed, allows him to communicate effectively with diverse audiences [5]. - His experience includes navigating complex economic discussions, which he believes is essential for formulating monetary policy [5][6]. - Waller's previous challenges to economic orthodoxy, particularly regarding interest rate hikes, have drawn both criticism and validation from the economic community [6]. Group 4: Current Economic Context - As of July, most Fed officials were cautious due to inflation remaining above the 2% target for four consecutive years, influenced by tariffs imposed by Trump [6]. - Waller argues that the Fed should focus on preventing labor market deterioration and consider interest rate cuts despite temporary price effects from tariffs [6][7]. - His recent vocal opposition to prevailing economic policies may be seen as a strategic move to position himself favorably for the Fed Chair role [7].

Group 1 - The U.S. preliminary benchmark payrolls revision indicates a downward adjustment of 911,000 jobs for the one-year period ending March 2025, marking the largest revision on record, suggesting a weaker labor market than previously reported [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates for the first time this year, with the possibility of a 50 basis point cut being considered instead of the previously forecasted 25 basis points due to the new labor market data [2] Group 2 - Rate-sensitive assets such as crypto, gold, and long-dated bonds experienced volatility, with gold futures initially surging past $3,700 before giving back gains and closing flat at $3,679 [3] - Bitcoin (BTC) saw a decline from $113,000 to $111,600, reflecting a 1% drop over the past 24 hours, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.07%, threatening to dip below 4% for the first time since February [4]