Group 1 - PTA prices have been declining since September, falling below 4400 yuan/ton due to decreasing crude oil prices and strong inventory accumulation expectations [1] - The geopolitical situation, including unresolved issues between Russia and Ukraine, continues to provide support for crude oil prices, which may lead to a rebound after significant declines [2] - The PTA industry is currently experiencing low processing fees, with a spot processing fee of 122 yuan/ton as of October 21, indicating a loss situation [3] Group 2 - There are signs of improvement in domestic demand as the winter clothing business enters a peak season, with strong demand for knitted and plush products [4] - Polyester production and sales are gradually increasing, with the processing fees for most polyester products improving significantly, while the inventory pressure remains manageable [4] - If new rounds of Sino-US trade negotiations yield positive signals, it could lead to strong external demand replenishment [4] Group 3 - Overall analysis suggests that PTA prices are likely to find a bottom in the short term due to the support from crude oil price recovery, limited supply growth, and improving domestic demand [5] - The combination of these factors is expected to support a strengthening of PTA prices and a recovery in processing fees [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices has caught many investors off guard, with significant gains for those who purchased gold at lower prices [1] Factors Influencing Gold Prices - **Dollar Strength**: The relationship between gold and the US dollar is inversely correlated; a weaker dollar typically leads to higher gold prices, while a stronger dollar results in lower prices [3] - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Policy**: Lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve make gold more attractive as a non-yielding asset, leading to price increases, whereas higher rates tend to decrease gold's appeal [4] - **Geopolitical Tensions**: Events such as wars or financial crises increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, driving prices up during times of uncertainty [5] - **Economic Conditions**: Economic downturns or uncertainty lead to increased gold purchases as a stable investment, while strong economic performance tends to decrease demand for gold [6] - **Inflation Expectations**: Rising expectations of inflation boost gold's appeal as a hedge, resulting in price increases, while declining inflation expectations can lead to price drops [7] - **Safe-Haven Demand**: Events like pandemics or disasters heighten risk aversion, increasing gold prices, while a return to normalcy can reduce demand [9] - **Global Monetary Policy**: Coordinated global monetary easing, such as interest rate cuts or quantitative easing, tends to increase gold prices, while tightening policies can lead to price declines [10] - **Financial Crises**: During financial crises, gold is viewed as a safe haven, with prices rising in response to increased demand; as crises abate, prices typically fall [11] - **Market Demand**: The overall demand for gold, including purchases by central banks and for jewelry, affects prices; higher demand with limited supply leads to price increases [12] - **US Economic Indicators**: Poor performance in key US economic indicators can drive investors towards gold, resulting in price increases, while strong indicators may lead to price declines [13]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil prices in China have been reduced again, marking the eighth decrease since 2025, with gasoline and diesel prices lowered by 75 yuan and 70 yuan per ton respectively, reflecting a trend of "six increases, eight decreases, and six stabilities" in the year [1][2] Price Adjustments - As of October 13, the average price of 92 gasoline is 8036 yuan per ton, down 75 yuan from the end of September, while 95 gasoline is at 8315 yuan per ton, down 70 yuan, and 0 diesel is at 6943 yuan per ton, down 77 yuan [2][3] - The price reduction translates to approximately 3 yuan savings for a typical car owner filling up a 50-liter tank of 92 gasoline [1] International Oil Market - As of October 13, WTI crude oil futures are priced at $59.88 per barrel, and Brent crude at $63.73 per barrel, showing slight increases [1] - Analysts attribute the recent rise in international oil prices to technical rebounds and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine situation, alongside adjustments in U.S. tariffs [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of gasoline and diesel may decrease slightly due to reduced operating rates at Shandong independent refineries and major refineries [3] - Gasoline demand is expected to weaken due to limited travel, while diesel demand may improve as outdoor work resumes following the end of persistent rainfall in northern provinces [3] Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the new pricing cycle may start with a negative trend, indicating a high probability of consecutive price declines for refined oil products [2][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by various market factors such as geopolitical tensions, U.S. government shutdown, and central banks' increased gold purchases [2][4]. - Gold has shown extreme price movements, with a notable increase from 3880 to 3976, nearing the 4000 mark, indicating a strong bullish sentiment [4]. - Caution is advised regarding potential corrections, as previous patterns suggest that after significant gains, a pullback may occur, particularly if key support levels are breached [4]. Group 2 - Silver has risen to 48.7, with expectations of reaching 49 or 50, but caution is warranted as it approaches resistance levels [5]. - The current price of silver is around 48.3, and a pullback is anticipated if it fails to maintain above 48.8 [5]. - Crude oil has shown volatility, with a recent high near 62, but it closed at 61.8, indicating a rebound demand despite some downward movement [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The overall trading atmosphere in the asphalt market is dull, with the market showing a narrow upward trend. The current market supply is relatively abundant, while demand is weak. Most regions have a flat trading atmosphere, but there are signs of rush - work in some terminal projects in the southern region. Due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, international oil prices may fluctuate significantly during the National Day holiday, which may disrupt the post - holiday BU market. It is recommended to be cautious before the holiday. The strategy for the asphalt market is to expect a sideways movement and maintain a light position before the holiday [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 29, the closing price of the main BU2511 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,466 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.43% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 132,865 lots, a decrease of 25,763 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 152,121 lots, a decrease of 57,958 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast region, 3,756 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong region, 3,450 - 3,720 yuan/ton; South China region, 3,500 - 3,550 yuan/ton; East China region, 3,510 - 3,600 yuan/ton. The spot price of asphalt in the North China market continued to decline slightly, while those in the South China and Sichuan - Chongqing markets continued to rise. The prices in other regions remained stable [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Sideways movement, maintain a light position before the holiday. - Inter - delivery spread: No strategy. - Inter - commodity spread: No strategy. - Futures - cash: No strategy. - Options: No strategy [2]. Figures The report includes figures showing various aspects of the asphalt market, such as spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), futures index and contract closing prices, trading volume and open interest, production volume in different regions, consumption in different sectors (road, waterproofing, coking, and ship fuel), and inventory levels (refinery and social inventory) [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the potential for a peace agreement regarding the Gaza conflict, as indicated by President Trump's statement that Prime Minister Netanyahu has accepted his proposed plan [1] - The discussions in Congress are focused on avoiding a government shutdown, with significant divisions noted between the Democratic and Republican parties [2][3] - If a budget agreement is not reached by the end of the week, many federal departments will face operational pauses, affecting the release of key economic data [3] Group 2 - Gold prices surged due to rising risk aversion linked to the potential government shutdown, with international spot gold reaching approximately $3,833, marking an increase of nearly $80 in a single day [4] - The main drivers for gold's price increase include expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, risks of a government shutdown, and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between Russia and Ukraine [5] - The gold market is currently experiencing strong bullish momentum, with expectations for further price increases if the government shutdown occurs [7] Group 3 - Silver prices are also reaching new highs, with international silver peaking at around $47.17, indicating a strong bullish trend in the silver market [10] - The silver market is characterized as being in a super bull market phase, with a focus on maintaining long positions while avoiding chasing prices at high levels [10]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 29, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Weekly Report on Precious Metals - Author: Long Aoming from Baocheng Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price showed a high - level oscillation after surging. The price of New York gold rose from $3,700 to $3,800, and the corresponding main contract price of Shanghai gold futures rose from 830 yuan to 860 yuan. In the short term, the simultaneous rise of the gold price, U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar index was likely due to geopolitical tensions. The U.S. continuously pressuring Russia accelerated the upward movement of the gold price. Since the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, the gold price has been on an upward trend, breaking through the oscillation range since the second quarter with an accelerating upward momentum. After a short - term correction around the Fed's interest - rate meeting on September 18, the gold price reached a new high, and the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged. With China approaching the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, attention should be paid to overseas market fluctuations [3][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Weekly Trend - The report provides a graph showing the relationship between the COMEX gold futures closing price and the U.S. dollar index, but no specific textual description of the weekly trend other than the price changes of gold is given [7]. 3.1.2 Index Percentage Changes | Index | September 26 | September 19 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $3,789.80 | $3,719.40 | 1.89% | | COMEX Silver | $46.37 | $43.37 | 6.92% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 856.06 yuan | 830.56 yuan | 3.07% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 10,632.00 yuan | 9,971.00 yuan | 6.63% | | U.S. Dollar Index | 98.20 | 97.65 | 0.56% | | U.S. Dollar against Off - shore RMB | 7.14 | 7.12 | 0.32% | | 10 - year U.S. Treasury Real Yield | 1.82 | 1.75 | 0.07 | | S&P 500 | 6,643.70 | 6,664.36 | - 0.31% | | U.S. Crude Oil Continuous | $65.19 | $62.72 | 3.94% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 81.74 | 85.77 | - 4.70% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 80.52 | 83.30 | - 3.34% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,005.72 | 994.56 | 11.16 | | iShare Gold ETF | 478.90 | 474.47 | 4.43 | [8] 3.2 Accelerated Upward Movement of Gold Price - Last week, the gold price showed a high - level oscillation after surging. In the short term, the simultaneous rise of the gold price, U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar index was likely due to the intensification of geopolitical situations, which increased market risk - aversion demand. The decline of the U.S. stock market last week reduced market risk appetite, increased risk - aversion demand, and was favorable for the gold price [10][12]. 3.3 Tracking of Other Indicators - According to September 23 data, compared with the previous week, long positions changed by 6,030 contracts, short positions changed by 5,691 contracts, and net long positions changed by 339 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to precious - metal price trends than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness. Last week, the gold ETF holdings increased significantly. Both gold and silver rose significantly last week, with silver rising sharply, and the gold - silver ratio declined rapidly. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rebounded significantly last week, and the 10 - 2 yield spread widened. With the start of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, the market's expectation for the U.S. economy improved [14][16][19] 3.4 Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, emphasizing the short - term and medium - to - long - term trends of the gold price and reminding of overseas market fluctuations during the holiday [25]

Group 1 - The main contract for fuel oil futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 2974.00 yuan, with a current price of 2972.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 1.99% [1] - According to Ruida Futures, fuel oil is following a strong fluctuation in crude oil prices, supported by geopolitical tensions and a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories, which enhances cost support for petrochemical products [2] - Demand from downstream sectors is increasing ahead of the holiday, with some refineries facing less inventory pressure, contributing to a nationwide price increase [2] Group 2 - Maike Futures indicates that the FU2601 contract has a support level at 2700 and a resistance level at 2950, with geopolitical disturbances causing market sentiment to rise [2] - The high-sulfur segment is seeing increased exports as the peak demand season in the Middle East ends, while OPEC+ continues to increase production, putting long-term pressure on high-sulfur supply [2] - For low-sulfur fuel, Russia has extended its refined oil export ban until the end of the year, exacerbating diesel supply tightness in Europe and supporting the price differential between low-sulfur and fuel oil [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the return of maintenance, pay attention to the PL01 - 02 short - position spread at high levels; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, the restart of upstream devices drives up the operating rate. Two major PDH devices in Shandong are expected to restart soon, and the new production capacity in Shandong is ramping up, increasing the supply pressure in the propylene market. On the demand side, downstream factories' pre - holiday stockpiling provides short - term bottom support for demand, but it is still restricted by cost pressure. The stockpiling demand is poor, mainly for low - price and just - in - time procurement. The restart drive of major downstream industries is insufficient. On the cost side, due to the escalation of geopolitical situations and possible upgrades of US sanctions on some oil - producing countries, the international oil price rebounds, and the external propane price is firm, providing support for the propylene cost [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report includes figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the North China basis of propylene, the propylene 01 - 05 contract, the East China market price of propylene, and the Shandong market price of propylene [6][8][10] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves figures such as the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, propylene PDH production gross profit, propylene PDH capacity utilization rate, propylene MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [17][25][32] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report presents figures on the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, the difference between Japan's CFR and China's CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][39] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It includes figures on the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, epoxy propane, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [42][44][47] 5. Propylene Inventory - The report shows figures on propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [67]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Core Viewpoints - Recent oil price trends have been relatively strong, driven by news such as the受阻 restart of the Iran - Turkey pipeline and the tense geopolitical situation in Russia - Ukraine [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the price of light crude oil futures for November delivery rose $1.58 to $64.99 per barrel, a 2.49% increase; the price of London Brent crude oil futures for November delivery rose $1.68 to $69.31 per barrel, a 2.48% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 1.53% at 490 yuan per barrel [1] - The EU Commission will propose a plan to increase tariffs on Russian oil imports in due course [2] - Eight international oil companies operating in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq have reached a principle agreement with the Iraqi federal and Kurdish regional governments to resume oil exports, which may restart in "the next few days" [2] - As of the week ending September 22, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 14.922 million barrels, an increase of 1.833 million barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventory increased by 0.628 million barrels to 6.676 million barrels, medium distillate inventory decreased by 0.033 million barrels to 1.618 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 1.238 million barrels to 6.628 million barrels [2] - Rosneft's refinery in Novokuibyshevsk suspended oil processing operations on September 20 after a drone attack [2] Investment Logic - Recent oil price trends are relatively strong, driven by news such as the uncertain restart of the Iran - Turkey pipeline and the tense Russia - Ukraine situation. Trump's attitude towards the Russia - Ukraine conflict is still wavering, and there is no clear path to ease the conflict [2] Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate within a range in the short term and bearish allocation in the medium term [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, and macro black swan events occur - Upside risks: The US tightens sanctions on Russian oil, and Middle East conflicts lead to large - scale supply disruptions [3]