Market Overview - The US dollar index experienced a downward trend this week, hitting a three-year low due to lower-than-expected CPI data, which fueled strong expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Spot gold prices rose significantly, supported by a weak dollar, increased rate cut expectations, and geopolitical tensions, reaching $3445 per ounce [1] - Silver prices continued to rise, hovering at the highest levels since 2011, closing at $36.33 per ounce [1] Oil Market - International crude oil prices surged due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, with WTI crude oil futures rising over 13% to exceed $77 per barrel, marking a high not seen since February [2] Investment Insights - UBS Global Wealth Management recommends strategic investments in Chinese stocks, citing that trade risks have peaked and more policy support may be forthcoming [5] - Paul Tudor Jones predicts a shift to a "super dovish" stance by the Federal Reserve next year, potentially leading to a 10% depreciation of the US dollar [5] - Daniel Ghali from TD Securities suggests that silver prices could rise further to $40 and challenge historical highs of $50 by year-end [5] - Optimism for the US stock market is growing, with Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs projecting a 10% increase in the S&P 500 index by year-end, reaching a target of 6500 points [5] Major Events - Israel launched a significant military operation against Iran, targeting over 100 sites, which has heightened geopolitical tensions and could impact market stability [6] - The US government has not participated in Israel's military actions but has coordinated with Israel, emphasizing a desire for Iran to return to negotiations [7] Economic Indicators - The US CPI data for May showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, below expectations, leading to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12] - The US tariff revenue reached $23 billion in May, a 270% increase year-on-year, reflecting the impact of new tariff policies [10][11] Corporate Developments - 17 major automotive companies in China have committed to a payment term of no more than 60 days to suppliers, aiming to foster a collaborative ecosystem in the industry [22] - Pop Mart's stock price has surged nearly 13 times over the past year and a half, driven by popular IPs like LABUBU, with significant auction results boosting investor interest [25]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rising concerns over geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on the gold market, suggesting that gold may be entering a bullish phase [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Concerns - There is an escalation in geopolitical tensions, which is influencing market sentiment towards gold [1] - The analysis indicates that these tensions could lead to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Real-time analysis of gold order flows is being conducted to assess market trends and investor behavior [1] - The article suggests that monitoring order flows can provide insights into potential price movements in the gold market [1]

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 13 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

张尧浠：地缘局势升温降息押注回暖、金价走强保持看涨 上交易日周四(6月12日)：国际黄金继续反弹收涨，延续周三的支撑买盘和重回短期均线上方后的跟进买盘推动，同时也暗示多头力量进一步增强，短期 将继续等待上行触及3435美元及3500美元目标不变。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3356.10美元/盎司，先行走强，并持稳于3368美元上方持续盘整，虽在欧盘开盘一度坠落触及日内低点3338.58美元，但又迅 速触底回升，并延续到美盘开盘，进一步拉升录得日内高点3398.86美元，最后遇阻回撤，震荡运行，最终收于3386.58美元，日振幅60.28美元，收涨30.48 美元，涨幅0.91%。 影响上，美元指数再度回落收跌，对金价产生利好，其美国就业、通胀双降温，支撑美联储年内降息两次。特朗普也再度建议美联储降息200个基点，以 色列或在数日内袭击伊朗，美国23日起对钢制家电加征关税等等利好因素，推动金价再度反弹收涨。 展望今日周五(6月13日)：国际黄金先行走低回撤，不过下方有众多均线支撑，市场也缺乏持续的强劲利空压力，故此，早间的回撤，仍是在为多头制造 入场机会，关注进场支撑位置。 另外，美元指数，昨日较大幅回落收跌 ...

·国投期货表示，隔夜美国5月CPI年率录得2.4%，核心CPI录得2.8%，同比环比均低于预期，特朗普再 次呼吁降息，美元回落，金价小幅上涨。但中美会谈达成共识框架消息令市场风险偏好继续向好限制金 价涨幅。各方关税谈判将继续主导市场，俄乌等地缘局势持续紧张，金价背靠3000美元强支撑维持回调 买入思路，白银破位后打开上方空间。 ·新湖期货表示，昨晚美国公布的5月CPI略低于市场预期，市场加大对美联储降息的押注，同时特朗普 再度向美联储施压降息，数据公布后黄金短线快速走强。中美首轮关税贸易谈判基本达成，市场不确定 性进一步降低。短期来看，中美首轮和谈进展符合市场预期，美国关税政策不确定性给市场带来的影响 有所减弱，金价波动在近期可能有所降低，但需警惕特朗普政策的反复。中长期来看，央行购金具有持 续性，叠加全球货币的泛滥和去美元化趋势，将继续支撑金价中枢上行，后续黄金可能仍偏强。 ·瑞银（UBS）的分析师在给客户的报告中称，尽管黄金近期走势有所盘整，但"目前金价涨势的暂停预 示着下一轮上涨行情的好兆头，因为看涨黄金的市场情绪没有改变。该行分析师认为，围绕美国关税、 财政政策和美联储应对的高度不确定性，增强了对投资 ...

原油日报 | 2025-06-12 地缘局势升温，油价大幅上涨 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所7月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨3.17美元，收于每桶68.15美元，涨幅为4.88%；8月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨2.90美元，收于每桶69.77美元，涨幅为4.34%。SC原油主力合约收涨3.37%，报497元/ 桶。 2、阿联酋富查伊拉石油工业区最新数据显示，截至6月9日当周，阿联酋富查伊拉港的成品油总库存为1734.1万桶， 比一周前增加了172.5万桶。其中轻质馏分油库存增加7.6万桶至780.2万桶，中质馏分油库存增加13.5万桶至78.7万 桶，重质残渣燃料油库存增加151.4万桶至875.2万桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 有报道称美国下令从伊拉克、巴林和科威特撤出家属和非必要人员，特朗普声称对周日即将召开的伊核协议会谈 达成的信心不足，这引发市场猜想，即伊核谈判如果破裂可能会引发以色列或者美国对伊朗进行军事打击，如此 以来伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡用以报复，这将导致中东地缘局势显著升温，但总体来看，我们仍旧认为这属于 黑天鹅事件，不排除伊核协议谈判进展仍会有反转。 策略 油价短期震荡 ...

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/6/11 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the interplay between geopolitical situations and policy movements, questioning whether gold can regain its upward momentum [1] - It highlights the importance of monitoring specific signals during the live analysis session conducted by trader Rinly [1] Geopolitical Factors - The current geopolitical landscape is influencing market dynamics, particularly in the gold sector [1] - Traders are advised to stay alert to developments that could impact gold prices [1] Policy Movements - Policy changes are also a significant factor affecting gold's performance [1] - The article suggests that understanding these policy shifts is crucial for predicting gold market trends [1] Trading Signals - The live analysis session aims to identify key signals that traders should focus on for potential trading opportunities in gold [1] - Real-time analysis is emphasized as a valuable tool for making informed trading decisions [1]

Report Investment Ratings - Gold: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer upward trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★☆★, suggesting a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals showed a strong and volatile trend. The recent recovery in market risk appetite has put some pressure on gold prices, while silver has benefited from the commodity rebound and broken through to reach a new high since 2012. As the three - month tariff suspension deadline approaches, Trump's tariff policy will continue to dominate the market. With geopolitical tensions in regions such as Russia and Ukraine remaining high, gold prices are supported by the strong level of $3000, and a buy - on - dips strategy is recommended. After silver breaks through, it opens up upside potential. This week, the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism will be held in London, UK. Attention should be paid to whether it can release further easing signals [1] Other Key Information - The US Department of Justice has requested the court to extend the suspension period of the invalidation judgment of Trump's tariffs [2] - The US Congressional Budget Office estimates that it will exhaust measures to avoid hitting the debt ceiling between mid - August and the end of September [2] - The US Senate plans to introduce a major adjustment plan for the Trump tax reform bill this week [3] - The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that the US plan regarding the Iran nuclear deal is "unacceptable"; the next round of Iran - US nuclear negotiations will be held on Sunday [4]

Group 1 - The overall sentiment in the precious metals market is mixed, with gold expected to experience a correction while silver shows potential for strength due to recent commodity rebounds and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - The expectation of a marginally accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve is likely to support silver prices, with recommendations to maintain a bullish strategy in precious metals [1][2] - Technical indicators suggest that gold may face short-term corrections but still holds potential for upward movement, with support levels identified around $3300 to $3280 [3] Group 2 - The ongoing trade discussions between the U.S. and China have eased pessimism regarding the trade war, although uncertainty remains high in the macroeconomic environment [2] - Recent strong U.S. employment data has led to increased market speculation about a stronger dollar, which may negatively impact gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][3] - The gold-silver ratio has shown signs of recovery, indicating a potential for silver to catch up after a period of divergence from gold prices [2]