Core Viewpoint - The easing of geopolitical tensions has led to a temporary adjustment in gold prices, with potential re-entry opportunities for bullish investors as support levels are approached [1][5]. Price Movement - On January 21, gold opened at $4,764.09 per ounce, peaked at $4,887.76, and closed at $4,830.99, marking a daily increase of $66.9 or 1.4% [3]. - The price exhibited a daily range of $131.92, indicating volatility in the market [3]. Market Outlook - The gold market is expected to face downward pressure due to profit-taking and a strengthening U.S. dollar, but the overall upward trend remains intact [3][5]. - Key economic indicators to watch include U.S. initial jobless claims and GDP data, which are anticipated to be favorable for gold prices [3]. Fundamental Analysis - Despite the short-term easing of geopolitical tensions, long-term support for gold prices remains due to persistent geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts [5]. - The consensus is for at least two 25 basis point rate cuts this year, which is expected to weaken the dollar and drive more investment into gold [5]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold is maintaining strength above trendline resistance, with potential for a bull market if current momentum continues [7]. - Weekly trends suggest a possible need for a correction in the near term, with support levels at the 5-10 week moving averages [7]. - Daily charts show that if gold prices drop to the support of the ascending channel, it could present another buying opportunity [9]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4,770 and $4,720/$4,680, while resistance levels are at $4,845 and $4,880/$4,920 [9]. - For silver, support is at $90.55 and $88.45, with resistance at $93.50 and $94.70 [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (interpreted as a more clear upward trend with appropriate current investment opportunities according to the star - rating description) [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is mainly characterized by a bearish pattern dominated by loose supply and demand. The geopolitical situation is controllable, and the market is in a stage of relatively loose supply and inventory accumulation, with limited short - term upward space for oil prices [2]. - Geopolitical factors dominate the fuel oil market. The short - term geopolitical fluctuations support high - sulfur fuel oil, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. For low - sulfur fuel oil, winter demand provides support, but the supply pressure is emerging, and the strengthening of gasoline and diesel cracking may provide bottom - line support [3]. - The asphalt trend follows crude oil but with a relatively limited amplitude. After the current disk has priced in the expected cost increase due to the tightening of Venezuelan crude oil shipments to China, the upward driving force is limited, and it is in a range - bound pattern [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The Trump administration postponed military actions against Iran, and the geopolitical situation is temporarily tense but controllable, making it difficult to drive oil prices to rise continuously [2]. - The crude oil market is in a stage of relatively loose supply and inventory accumulation, causing part of the geopolitical risk premium previously included in oil prices to be reversed [2]. - Unless there is a significant interruption in oil supply due to conflicts, the short - term upward space for oil prices is expected to be limited, and the market is dominated by a bearish pattern of loose supply and demand [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors are the main drivers of market fluctuations. Although the US - Iran situation is postponed, the risk remains. If Iran's exports are blocked, it will tighten regional supply and support fuel oil prices to be relatively resistant to decline, with a slight strengthening of the crack spread [3]. - Short - term geopolitical fluctuations will support high - sulfur fuel oil, but in the medium term, the supply will be loose due to the abundant raw materials and high inventory, showing an overall positive spread pattern [3]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Winter demand provides some support, but the supply from overseas refineries is rising. About 130,000 tons of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Kuwait Azour refinery is expected to arrive in Singapore in late January, bringing supply pressure and capping the upside [3]. - The strengthening of gasoline and diesel cracking may provide bottom - line support for low - sulfur fuel oil [3]. Asphalt - Oil prices have fluctuated sharply recently due to repeated geopolitical news, and the asphalt trend follows crude oil but with a relatively limited amplitude [4]. - Kpler data predicts that the arrivals in January will still be sufficient. After the current disk has priced in the expected cost increase due to the tightening of Venezuelan crude oil shipments to China, the upward driving force is limited, and it is in a range - bound pattern [4]. - Attention should be paid to the arrival situation of Venezuelan crude oil in the future [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated at high levels due to geopolitical events. Although Trump's stance has become more rational, the risk of military intervention cannot be completely ruled out [4]. - From a fundamental perspective, global onshore oil inventories are accumulating in the off - season, while the total waterborne inventories have decreased month - on - month but are higher year - on - year. The North Sea market has tightened recently, the Dubai market is loose, and the WTI and Brent markets are decoupled [4]. - In terms of refinery profits, the sharp rise in European natural gas has strengthened the cracking of European diesel. The overall profits of European and American refineries are under downward pressure due to the strengthening of crude oil prices. Short - term attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, and the absolute price center in the first quarter will remain at a high level [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - **International Crude Oil**: From January 14 to January 20, 2026, BRENT increased by $0.98, DUBAI decreased by $0.37, and the BRENT 1 - 2 month spread increased by $0.01, while the DUBAI - BRT (EFS) decreased by $0.02 [3]. - **Domestic Crude Oil and Related Products**: From January 14 to January 20, SC decreased by $0.40, OMAN decreased by $0.37, and the SC - BRT decreased by $1.00. Domestic gasoline prices decreased by 40 yuan, and domestic diesel prices decreased by 42 yuan [3]. - **Other Products**: From January 14 to January 20, the Singapore 380CST fuel oil decreased by $11.19, the main contract of SHFE FU decreased by 26 yuan, and the main contract of SHFE BU decreased by 3 yuan [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Iran's Armed Forces spokesman stated that any hostile and provocative actions will be firmly countered [3]. - All ports in Libya's Oil Crescent are shut down due to bad weather [3]. - Venezuela's National Assembly is expected to discuss the oil law on Thursday [3]. 3.3 Inventory - In the week of January 9, US crude oil exports increased by 43,000 barrels per day to 4.306 million barrels per day [4]. - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 58,000 barrels to 13.753 million barrels per day [4]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.391 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a 0.81% increase [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 19.98 million barrels per day, a 1.14% decrease compared to the same period last year [4]. - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 214,000 barrels to 413.7 million barrels, a 0.05% increase [4]. - US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 7.092 million barrels per day, an increase of 753,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [4]. - US EIA gasoline inventories for the week ending January 9 were 8.977 million barrels, expected to be 3.565 million barrels, and the previous value was 7.702 million barrels [4]. - US EIA refined oil inventories for the week ending January 9 were - 29,000 barrels, expected to be 512,000 barrels, and the previous value was 5.594 million barrels [4].

周二油价收涨，其中WTI 2月合约收盘上涨0.90美元至60.34美元/桶，涨幅1.51%。布伦特3月合约收盘上 涨0.98美元至64.92美元/桶，涨幅1.53%。SC2603以442.5元/桶收盘，上涨4元/桶，涨幅为0.91%。特朗普 以征收关税为筹码，威胁若不交出格陵兰岛就对多个欧洲国家采取关税措施，其争夺格陵兰岛的强硬行 径引发金融市场震荡。对于美国收购格陵兰岛的企图持反对态度的欧洲多国领导人，对特朗普的关税威 胁表示强烈抵制，并警告称若美方实施关税措施，他们将予以反击。天气方面，本周晚些时候到下周将 有寒冷天气席卷美国，这包括进入德克萨斯州的霜冻气温，昨天夜盘气价大幅拉升，原油亦担忧天气而 呈现反弹。从时间窗口来看，需关注在严寒天气的持续性，以及是否引发冻井现象，预计2月初天气有 所会冷。短期需要关注油气价格联动表现。 燃料油： （杜冰沁，从业资格号：F3043760；交易咨询资格号：Z0015786） 周二，上期所燃料油主力合约FU2603收跌1.72%，报2512元/吨；低硫燃料油主力合约LU2603收跌 0.23%，报3078元/吨。低硫端，1月预计新加坡将从西方接收约290-300万吨低硫 ...

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation is intensifying, leading to a surge in gold prices, which have broken through resistance levels, indicating increased bullish momentum and potential for further upward movement towards the $5000 target or higher [1][5]. Price Movement - On January 20, gold opened at $4668.63 per ounce, dipped to a low of $4659.45, then rebounded to break the $4700 mark, reaching a high of $4766.01 before closing at $4763.23, marking a daily increase of $94.6 or 2.03% [3]. - The following day, January 21, gold continued its bullish trend, with expectations of further gains despite a slight recovery in the dollar index [3]. Market Expectations - Upcoming data releases, such as the U.S. December pending home sales index and October construction spending, are anticipated to be favorable for gold prices, supporting a bullish outlook [5]. - Market consensus suggests at least two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2023, which is expected to weaken the dollar and drive more investment into gold [5]. Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and renewed trade war concerns are contributing to heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, reinforcing the bullish outlook for the metal [5]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold is maintaining strength above trendline resistance, with potential for a bull market that could see prices rise by over 30% this year, targeting the $5500-$6000 range [7]. - Weekly charts show consistent rebounds supported by moving averages, suggesting continued upward momentum and potential to reach the $4800 mark or higher in the near term [7]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4725 and $4670, while resistance levels are noted at $4800 and $4860 [9]. - For silver, support is at $93.40 and $91.30, with resistance at $96.00 and $97.80 [9].

1月20日：上交易日周一（1月19日）：国际黄金受美国总统特朗普在格陵兰岛争端中对多个欧洲国家发 出加征关税警告所激发的避险需求推动，高开高走，再度收阳，维持多头看涨前景，但目前走势触及上 升趋势线压力附近，也有短线回落调整的需求，不过，如有回撤调整，下方各短周期均线支撑，也是再 度入场看涨的机会，反之，如继续反弹走强收阳至趋势线阻力上方，则将顺势跟进继续看涨上行。 具体走势上，金价自亚市高开于4615.41美元/盎司，先行录得日内低点4615.08美元，之后反弹拉升，触 及日内高点4689.23美元，半小时内即出高低点，在之后，多头动力有所减弱，并维持基本维持在4655- 4677区间内持续盘整，一直到日收盘，收于4671.91美元，相对于上周五收盘价4594.07美元，周振幅 95.16美元，收涨77.84美元，涨幅1.69%。 展望今日周二（1月20日）：国际黄金开盘走势有所偏弱，面临阻力调整需求，和日内短周期的背离形 态，以及美元指数早盘的止跌走强压力，但多头仍具优势和前景。短期如有进一步回撤，下方关注各周 期的均线支撑，也都是入场看涨机会。 日内无重点关注数据及事件，市场将继续消化地缘局势和即将展开 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bottle chip in the energy and chemical industry is "Oscillation" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The Middle East geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, causing crude oil prices to oscillate. Last week, bottle chip supply decreased slightly. There is no obvious improvement in the demand side. In the short - term, bottle chip prices will oscillate following raw materials, with the main contract PR2603 in the reference range of 5,930 - 6,180 yuan/ton. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - On Monday night session, the main price of bottle chips dropped 4 yuan to 5,978 yuan/ton. The price of East China water bottle - grade bottle chips was 6,035 yuan/ton (-15), and the price of South China bottle chips was 6,030 yuan/ton (+10). In terms of positions, long positions decreased by 45 lots to 60,200 lots, and short positions decreased by 33 lots to 61,200 lots [3] 3.2 Important Information - **Supply, Cost, and Profit**: This week, the domestic polyester bottle chip production was 325,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,400 tons. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 70.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.03%. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5,588 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 3.7 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 98 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 67 yuan/ton [3] - **Exports**: In November 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 533,000 tons, an increase of 9,900 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 5,865,000 tons [3] - **December Production and Capacity Utilization**: In December 2025, the production of China's polyester bottle chip industry was 1,478,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. The capacity utilization rate in December was 73.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points [3] - **Oil Price**: The geopolitical situation in Iran and other regions has eased, reducing potential supply risks and causing international oil prices to fall. The NYMEX crude oil futures were closed for the US Martin Luther King Memorial Day holiday with no settlement price. The ICE Brent crude futures contract 03 was at 63.94 dollars/barrel, down 0.19 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 0.30%. The China INE crude oil futures contract 2603 rose 2.9 to 442.6 yuan/ton, and fell 2.3 to 440.3 yuan/ton in the night session [3] 3.3 Market Logic - The Middle East geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, leading to crude oil price oscillations. Last week, bottle chip supply decreased slightly. There is no obvious improvement in the demand side, with the downstream soft drink industry operating at 65 - 75%, oil plants at 57%, and the PET sheet industry at 60%. In the short - term, bottle chip prices will oscillate following raw materials [3] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [3]

张尧浠：避险加关税再起忧虑、黄金增强看涨前景预期 上交易日周一(1月19日)：国际黄金受美国总统特朗普在格陵兰岛争端中对多个欧洲国家发出加征关税警告所激发的避险需求推动，高开高走，再度收 阳，维持多头看涨前景，但目前走势触及上升趋势线压力附近，也有短线回落调整的需求，不过，如有回撤调整，下方各短周期均线支撑，也是再度入场 看涨的机会，反之，如继续反弹走强收阳至趋势线阻力上方，则将顺势跟进继续看涨上行。 具体走势上，金价自亚市高开于4615.41美元/盎司，先行录得日内低点4615.08美元，之后反弹拉升，触及日内高点4689.23美元，半小时内即出高低点， 在之后，多头动力有所减弱，并维持基本维持在4655-4677区间内持续盘整，一直到日收盘，收于4671.91美元，相对于上周五收盘价4594.07美元，周振幅 95.16美元，收涨77.84美元，涨幅1.69%。 展望今日周二(1月20日)：国际黄金开盘走势有所偏弱，面临阻力调整需求，和日内短周期的背离形态，以及美元指数早盘的止跌走强压力，但多头仍具 优势和前景。短期如有进一步回撤，下方关注各周期的均线支撑，也都是入场看涨机会。 日内无重点关注数据及事件， ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil retail price is expected to increase for the first time in 2026, with an adjustment window opening on January 20, 2023, due to international crude oil price fluctuations indicating a rise above the adjustment threshold of 50 yuan/ton [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - The current pricing cycle for domestic refined oil has seen international crude oil prices initially rise and then fall, but the average price has increased compared to the previous cycle, with a reference crude oil change rate of 2.01% as of January 16, 2023, suggesting a potential retail price increase of 85 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel [2][3]. - Analysts predict that the retail price for 92 gasoline and 0 diesel may rise by approximately 0.07 yuan per liter if the adjustment is implemented [2]. Group 2: Market Trends - Recent data indicates that the wholesale prices for both gasoline and diesel have been declining, with 92 gasoline averaging 7279 yuan/ton (down 0.19%) and diesel at 5994 yuan/ton (down 1.54%) as of January 16, 2023 [4]. - The supply side shows an increase in gasoline production while diesel supply is decreasing, leading to a divergence in market trends, with gasoline demand expectations improving but facing inventory accumulation, while diesel demand is weakening due to seasonal factors [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The geopolitical uncertainties continue to influence short-term international crude oil prices, with OPEC+ halting production increases, suggesting ongoing support for oil market supply [4]. - Geopolitical factors remain a primary driver for the international oil market, but their impact is considered short-term and may not alter the overall downward trend in oil prices [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ [1] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Carbonate Lithium: ☆☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market still needs to reduce volume, and there is still some potential in the current volume and price. The market is highly concerned about the geopolitical situation. The domestic copper market is mainly "supply exceeds demand". It is recommended to continue holding the option combination of selling call options with an exercise price of 104,000 and buying put options with an exercise price of 98,000 [1]. - The overseas macro uncertainty is strong, and the capital sentiment fluctuates rapidly. The Shanghai aluminum fluctuates around 24,000 yuan waiting for the driving force. The casting aluminum alloy follows the Shanghai aluminum to fluctuate, and the market activity is not high. The alumina balance continues to be in a significant surplus, and it is advisable to participate in short - selling when the basis is low [2]. - The zinc price has回调, the downstream acceptance is still limited, and the spot trading is weak. The short - term support is seen at 24,000 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to short - sell at high levels [3]. - The import window of aluminum continues to be open, and both the internal and external markets are in a low - level consolidation under oversupply. The supply - side pressure of lead increases, but the lead concentrate is still tight, and the lower support of Shanghai lead is seen at 17,000 yuan/ton [5]. - The Shanghai nickel fluctuates at a high level, and the stainless - steel traditional consumption season is off - season. The negative feedback risk is accumulating, but in the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment, and the long - position thinking is continued [6]. - The Shanghai tin continues to decline with position reduction. The long - and short - sides have different focuses. The internal and external explicit inventories of tin have increased significantly, and it is advisable to hold the high - level sold call options [7]. - The carbonate lithium fluctuates weakly, and the downstream acceptance of high prices is generally weak. The overall inventory reduction speed has slowed down significantly, and the short - term uncertainty is extremely strong [8]. - The industrial silicon is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough at 9000 yuan/degree on the disk and whether the production reduction expectation of large factories is repeated [9]. - The polysilicon disk maintains fluctuations. Although the cancellation of export tax rebates is beneficial to short - term demand, the upward movement of the disk is still under pressure, and it should be participated in cautiously [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - The Shanghai copper oscillates around 100,000. The domestic social inventory has increased to 329,400 tons, and after the delivery and month - change of the 2601 contract, the domestic spot copper is quoted at a discount. The domestic refined copper output in January is expected to pick up month - on - month, and the domestic copper market is mainly "supply exceeds demand". Hold the option combination of selling call options with an exercise price of 104,000 and buying put options with an exercise price of 98,000 [1]. Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum oscillates. The spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan are - 160 yuan, - 290 yuan, and 130 yuan respectively. The processing fee of aluminum rods has recovered to around 100 yuan, and the social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods have each increased by 13,000 tons. The casting aluminum alloy follows the Shanghai aluminum to fluctuate, and the waste aluminum is still in short supply. The domestic alumina operating capacity is maintained at around 95 million tons, and the balance is in a significant surplus. When the basis is low, participate in short - selling [2]. Zinc - The zinc price has回调, the downstream acceptance is limited, and the spot trading is weak. The Shanghai - London ratio oscillates at a low level, and the transfer between the internal and external zinc markets is not smooth. The high price has an obvious negative feedback on the consumption end. The short - term support is seen at 24,000 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to short - sell at high levels [3]. Aluminum - The import window of aluminum continues to be open, the LME aluminum inventory has dropped to 206,000 tons, and both the internal and external markets are in a low - level consolidation under oversupply. The supply - side pressure of lead increases in late January, but the lead concentrate is still tight, and the lower support of Shanghai lead is seen at 17,000 yuan/ton [5]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel fluctuates at a high level, and the stainless - steel traditional consumption season is off - season. The negative feedback risk is accumulating, but in the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment. The nickel inventory has increased by 2500 tons to 63,500 tons, the nickel - iron inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 10,000 tons to 844,000 tons. Continue the long - position thinking [6]. Tin - The Shanghai tin continues to decline with position reduction. The long - side focuses on factors such as tight ore supply, while the short - side focuses on the reality of restricted demand under high prices. The internal and external explicit inventories of tin have increased significantly. Hold the high - level sold call options [7]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium fluctuates weakly. The downstream acceptance of high prices is generally weak, and the overall inventory reduction speed has slowed down significantly. The short - term uncertainty is extremely strong [8]. Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang large factories plan to reduce production by 50% at the end of the month, affecting the monthly output by more than 60,000 tons. In February, the demand for downstream polysilicon and organic silicon continues to decline, but the decline range is limited month - on - month. The industrial silicon is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction. Pay attention to the breakthrough at 9000 yuan/degree on the disk and whether the production reduction expectation of large factories is repeated [9]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon disk maintains fluctuations. The cancellation of export tax rebates is beneficial to short - term demand, and leading polysilicon enterprises plan to reduce production. The January production plan has been revised down to 103,000 tons. The N - type re - feed material price is firm, with a slight increase to 54,850 yuan/ton. The upward movement of the disk is still under pressure, and it should be participated in cautiously [10].