贝莱德在未来12个月尤其看好由 AI 驱动的美国大型科技股。 目前，美国降息预期强烈，人工智能（AI）这一牛市主线仍支撑美国和全球股市。全球资金越发看向 新兴市场，中国的AI主题亦引发外资兴趣。 针对未来的全球投资前景，第一财经对话贝莱德智库中东及亚洲首席投资官庞文博（Ben Powell）。在 他看来，即使近期非农就业数据大幅放缓，但美国经济更可能是"温和放缓"，因为老龄化和移民政策的 变化可能会减少劳动力供给，但对工人的需求仍在增长，而不是收缩，因此目前并不指向衰退。同时， 美国的工资增长仍相对强劲，这可能会阻止通胀完全回到目标水平。因此，贝莱德预计美联储未来的累 计降息次数并不会达到市场普遍预期的5~6次，而是在今年降息2次。 整体而言，贝莱德在未来12个月尤其看好由 AI 驱动的美国大型科技股。此外，庞文博表示，尽管整体 对中国股市持有中性观点，但重点看好中国科技股，核心原因是，中国科技股与全球同行（尤其美国科 技股）的估值差距仍较大，且AI驱动的增长逻辑在国内同样成立，存在进一步估值修复空间，而且中 国的芯片产业链具备较大的"国产自主"潜能也越发受到认可。 美国就业未必太弱、谨看降息次数 继8月公布 ...

Core Insights - Gold prices reached a historic high of $3,674 per ounce, driven by heightened expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve due to revised U.S. employment data indicating a potential overestimation of job numbers by 911,000 [1] - Geopolitical tensions, including U.S. trade policy and military actions in the Middle East, have further supported the rise in gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets [1] - Central banks globally, including the Czech National Bank and the People's Bank of China, have been increasing their gold reserves, contributing to a nearly 40% increase in gold prices this year [2] Market Dynamics - The upcoming U.S. Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index reports are critical for influencing Federal Reserve policy decisions [1] - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may maintain a loose monetary policy until March 2026 due to rising labor market risks, with year-end gold price targets raised to $3,800 per ounce [2] - Current gold prices are significantly above long-term trend lines, suggesting a potential concern for investors who adhere to mean reversion strategies [3][5] Investment Sentiment - The demand for gold and silver is increasing as investors lose confidence in fiat currencies and seek alternatives amid global economic uncertainties [5] - Despite current prices being high relative to long-term trends, holding gold and silver remains a rational choice for investors in the current economic climate [5]

以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者杨敏 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航。 市场连续上行后，目前对未来的想法如下： 1、 短期有望新高，未来几周偏向于是重心上移、斜率放缓、偏震荡的过程。 一方面，市场刚刚突破 10年箱体区间，有阶段性震荡非常合理 指数方面，目前所有指数都打过了 10月8日的新高，唯独上证50还没有，所以后一阶段，上证50有补涨要求。 风格和板块方面，从过去 14年的胜率数据看，9月低市盈率、消费、煤炭、建材这几个方向胜率相对高，但胜率很低的方向是高市盈率的 风格，胜率仅有27%。叠加8月科技方向如火如荼，进入9月或将迎来短期的分化震荡。当然，中期角度，人工智能方向依然是行情的重要 主线。 3、 港股需要重新重视 过去 3个月，港股基本横盘震荡，主要还是两方面原因： 一方面，港股是最早打过 2021年高点的指数，而其他指数相对落后。现在主要宽基指数才逐步打掉去年10月高点，随着最后一个指数 ——上证50未来突破10月8日高点，港股或将重新带领指数上攻。 另外，指数 3900以上也接近6 ...

Group 1 - The core belief emphasized by Howard Marks is that emotional stability, patience, a long-term perspective, and the ability to refrain from impulsive actions typically lead to better investment outcomes [2][54] - Marks suggests that investment is not about precise timing but rather about constructing a resilient portfolio that can withstand various market conditions, akin to a soccer team that plays the entire match with the same lineup [42][45] Group 2 - Marks discusses the current market environment, indicating that the U.S. stock market is in the early stages of a bubble, driven by optimism and a lack of perceived risk [17][26] - He highlights the importance of understanding one's position in the investment cycle and balancing aggressiveness and defensiveness based on individual circumstances [10][12] Group 3 - The traditional economic and market cycles may have been disrupted, particularly due to the pandemic, leading to uncertainty about future economic conditions [18][19] - Marks argues that central banks cannot permanently eliminate market fluctuations; they can only delay them, suggesting that future downturns may be more severe if they are postponed [26][28] Group 4 - In the current environment of narrow credit spreads, Marks emphasizes the need for investors to demand risk premiums when shifting from government bonds to corporate bonds, as optimism can lead to underestimating risks [30][31] - He notes that while the U.S. remains a favored investment destination, non-U.S. markets often present cheaper opportunities, particularly in high-yield bonds [35][37] Group 5 - Marks uses the analogy of American football and Brazilian soccer to illustrate investment strategies, advocating for a consistent approach rather than frequent adjustments based on market conditions [42][45] - He stresses the importance of patience and emotional control in investing, advising against the common tendency to buy high and sell low [51][52]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the driving force of the stock market is shifting from risk preference to performance-driven, indicating a transition in investment strategies towards leading industries, particularly in technology [1][2] - Last week's market performance showed technology leading the way, driven by advancements in domestic chip development and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The article highlights a divergence in the market, with technology sectors performing well while cyclical commodities like coal and rebar continue to struggle, confirming previous assessments of weakening cyclical forces [2][3] Group 2 - The article suggests that the next market momentum requires a shift in thinking, focusing on improving earnings expectations across industries and adapting investment strategies to meet the demands of the new era [2][3] - It discusses the importance of innovation as a key theme in investment, emphasizing that the spirit of entrepreneurship is crucial for growth and that innovation should be a fundamental instinct for businesses [4][5] - The need for a transition from aggregate thinking to structural thinking in industry research is highlighted, as understanding industry organization becomes increasingly important in a stable growth environment [4][5] Group 3 - The article outlines characteristics of leading industries, suggesting that high-end manufacturing and hard technology will be central to future economic growth, with a focus on quality consumption and technological advancements [7][8] - It notes that the current market is at a crossroads, with the potential for significant adjustments, but the fundamental trend of asset revaluation remains unchanged [3][10] - The impact of wealth effects, stricter credit card investment regulations, and the potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut are discussed as factors influencing market dynamics [10][11]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A maintained a positive value, while Index B continued to rise, indicating ongoing economic growth momentum[1] - The standardized Index B increased by 0.3, outperforming historical averages, suggesting improved domestic economic dynamics[1] - Consumer sector performance showed a recovery, while investment and real estate sectors remained stable[1] Price Tracking and Inflation - Food prices are expected to rise by approximately 0.5% month-on-month in August, while non-food prices are projected to remain flat, leading to an overall CPI increase of about 0.1%[2] - The CPI year-on-year is anticipated to decline to -0.3%[2] - The PPI is expected to rise by 0.4% month-on-month in August, with a year-on-year increase to -2.5%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are considered low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is viewed as high, indicating potential downward pressure on the index and upward pressure on the ten-year government bond yield[1] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of August 29, 2025, is 2.49%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is forecasted to be 3,206.20[19]

Group 1 - The UK has lost the ability to independently manufacture a complete modern fighter jet, reflecting a broader decline in high-end manufacturing and competitiveness across various industries [1][35][39] - The historical industrial strength of the UK was built on a global rent-seeking system rooted in colonial history and financial hegemony, rather than collective effort [3][4][106] - The reliance on rent-seeking has weakened the willingness and capacity for long-term, arduous construction within the country [6][7][102] Group 2 - The decline of the UK’s industrial base is evident across various sectors, leading to a loss of strategic independence and the ability to control its own destiny [9][10][121] - The UK automotive industry faces additional challenges due to a new trade agreement with the US, which imposes tariffs that exacerbate its already weak position [13][14] - The UK has become the only G7 country to effectively exit the primary steelmaking industry, with steel production dropping from a peak of 28.31 million tons in 1970 to 4 million tons in 2024 [38][40] Group 3 - The UK’s military-industrial complex is in decline, with the army reduced to its smallest size since the Napoleonic Wars and a reliance on foreign technology for key military equipment [35][36][121] - The UK’s manufacturing sector has seen its contribution to GDP fall to approximately 7.1%, the lowest among G7 nations, indicating a significant structural transformation [82] - The UK has lost its position as a major shipbuilding nation, with its shipyards unable to compete with the growing Chinese market, which dominates global shipbuilding [46][47][49] Group 4 - The UK’s high-end manufacturing capabilities are diminishing, as it has become a supplier of high-value components rather than a leader in complete systems integration [63][71] - The country’s infrastructure projects, such as the HS2 high-speed rail, have faced budget overruns and mismanagement, leading to cancellations and failures [72][121] - The UK’s reliance on foreign supply chains for critical components in various industries, including aerospace and automotive, has further eroded its industrial base [62][68][70] Group 5 - The UK’s government has historically favored financial services over manufacturing, leading to a hollowing out of its industrial capabilities [85][121] - The decline in traditional manufacturing has resulted in economic instability in regions that were once industrial powerhouses, contributing to a growing divide between prosperous areas and those in decline [79][80] - The UK’s attempts to pivot towards emerging industries have been hampered by a lack of foundational industrial capacity and coherent policy direction [98][126]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. stock market may be in the early stages of a bubble, with high valuations that should not be ignored, although it is not yet time to sound the alarm [1][2][3] - Howard Marks suggests increasing defensive positions in investment portfolios, particularly by investing in bonds rather than stocks [1][5] - The current market environment is compared to 1997, where high valuations were prevalent, and despite warnings, the market continued to rise for several years [3][4] Group 2 - The "Fabulous Seven" stocks, such as Amazon and Google, significantly contribute to market gains, but high valuations are also seen in many other companies, raising concerns about overall market valuation [3][4] - The credit market is viewed as more defensive than stocks, with a contractual return that provides a level of security, despite tight credit spreads [5][6] - The U.S. remains a top investment destination due to its innovative spirit and strong market fundamentals, although it may be slightly less favorable than in the past [6]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.39%, S&P 500 futures down 0.29%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.23% [1] - European indices also show declines, with Germany's DAX down 0.36%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.25%, France's CAC40 down 0.74%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.33% [2][3] - WTI crude oil is up 0.65% at $63.12 per barrel, while Brent crude is up 0.55% at $67.21 per barrel [3][4] Market Sentiment - Oak Tree Capital's Marks warns of signs of a bubble in the US stock market, indicating that market valuations are high, reminiscent of the late 1990s tech bubble [5] - Kansas City Fed President suggests that the current moderately restrictive monetary policy is appropriate, with inflation risks slightly outweighing labor market risks [5] - Goldman Sachs indicates an 80% probability of a rebound for momentum stocks after a significant drop, suggesting a buying opportunity [5] Company News - Walmart (WMT.US) reports mixed Q2 results with revenue up 4.8% to $177.4 billion, but adjusted EPS of $0.68 fell short of expectations [7] - Apple (AAPL.US) is expanding its presence in India with a new store opening in Bangalore, highlighting the market's growth potential [8] - Meta (META.US) has paused hiring in its AI division amid a restructuring effort [8] - Brazil Potash (GRO.US) signs a 10-year potassium fertilizer sales agreement, leading to a stock surge of over 32% [9] - Bilibili (BILI.US) reports a net profit of 219 million yuan in Q2, reversing a loss from the previous year [9] - Miniso (MNSO.US) sees Q2 revenue growth of 23.1%, with a significant increase in sales from its TOP TOY segment [10] - Canadian Solar (CSIQ.US) reports Q2 revenue of $1.7 billion, below expectations, and lowers its full-year revenue guidance [10]

Group 1 - Oaktree Capital Management's co-founder Howard Marks warns that the U.S. stock market is in the "early stages" of a bubble, despite not being at a critical adjustment point yet [1] - Marks highlights that current asset prices are expensive and recalls the last significant market correction occurred 16 years ago, reminiscent of the late 1990s tech stock boom [1] - He emphasizes that some tech stocks are historically overvalued and suggests that mean reversion is highly likely [1] Group 2 - Marks advises increasing defensive positions in investment portfolios, suggesting credit investments over stocks as a more defensive strategy [2] - He acknowledges that while bond spreads are narrow, they still offer better defensive characteristics compared to equities [2] - Marks asserts that the U.S. remains the best investment destination globally, despite a slight deterioration in the fundamental investment environment [2]