相聚资本研究总监、基金经理余晓畅认为，下半年经济本身不是决定股市走向的胜负手，而是可能出现 的变局点，也对应着股市的变盘。宏观经济之外，新兴产业的发展趋势也是需要高度关注的核心变量， 比如AI的推进等。 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 余晓畅认为，在贸易冲突的不确定背景下，企业的内在质地尤为重要。具有全球竞争力、品牌力突出， 在海外市场具有广阔市场空间的公司，具备了从纷繁多杂环境下穿越周期的能力。当不确定成为常态， 更需要具备自下而上从变化中找到突破点的投资能力。比如二季度的新消费和创新药行情，便是这样的 变局点。看到变化，并有突破和获利的能力，这也将是未来的发力方向之一。 在余晓畅看来，虽然二季度A股市场AI板块有所沉寂，但国内AI的发展并未停歇，投资中需要更要关注 核心节点、比如产业趋势的临界点，淡化短期业绩，关键环节的突破是股价定价的核心。 对于近来火爆的新消费，余晓畅认为，本质是一代人有一代人的消费习惯和理念，消费习惯的变迁也带 来了对应消费公司的崛起，周期趋势概莫能外。落到投资上，理性客观看待板块炒作，具有内在持续运 营和业绩兑现能力的企业，才是长期投资的优选。 展望下半年，余晓畅认为，互联网、金属等 ...

瑞典央行会议纪要：瑞典央行行长特登表示，仍然认为当前的贸易冲突不太可能引发瑞典出现强烈的通 胀压力。 ...

德国总理默茨：欧盟准备在与美国的贸易冲突中维护自身利益。 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations this week, with only the ChiNext index showing an increase. The ETF market continued to see net outflows, primarily from large-cap ETFs. The market is transitioning from wide fluctuations to narrower ones, with increased trading volume during this process, indicating potential consolidation in a weak market [4]. Copper Industry - In May, domestic waste copper production was 92,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20% but a month-on-month increase of 5%. The negative impact of trade conflicts on the economy has not fully materialized, which continues to suppress copper price increases. Supply-side disturbances in copper mining have increased, while demand is weakening due to reduced export stocking effects and the domestic off-season [5]. Metal Prices - The price of London gold has reached a historical high. Sunac China’s offshore debt-to-equity swap plan received support from 82% of bondholders. In May, Sunac's total sales amounted to 4.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128%, indicating strong performance [6]. Chemical Industry - Recent safety incidents in chemical parks have led to stricter approval and production regulations for high-risk chemical reactions. Leading companies in the chemical industry, with better safety management and advanced production technologies, are expected to benefit from stable production amid limited growth in high-risk products [7]. Construction Materials - The market performance showed a decline, with the CITIC building materials index down 2.16% and the CITIC construction index down 1.27%. The average price of PO42.5 cement was 365.70 yuan/ton, a slight increase, while glass prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton [8]. Agriculture and Livestock - In the pig farming sector, the industry capacity cycle has bottomed out, but high inventory levels continue to impact market dynamics. Recent policy-driven efforts are accelerating the reduction of inventory, which may lead to a rebalancing of supply and demand. Long-term, the end of inventory reduction could signal the start of a prolonged profit upcycle for the sector [9]. Renewable Energy - The nuclear fusion sector, while far from full commercialization, is seeing increased investment and research due to global military competition. Recent data from May indicates a downward trend in overall renewable energy prices, highlighting ongoing pressures in power supply and demand. Wind power, virtual power plants, and energy storage are identified as promising investment opportunities [10].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Russell Investments suggests that the Federal Reserve may maintain current interest rates throughout the summer, with potential rate cuts of one to two times by the end of the year [1] - Goldman Sachs has downgraded the U.S. recession outlook, citing that the impact of tariffs is lower than expected and the financial environment has returned to pre-tariff levels [2] - The current inflation data in the U.S. indicates that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices may be less significant than anticipated, although future CPI increases are expected due to tariff effects [2] Group 2: Global Economic and Market Trends - Analysts from Deutsche Bank note that the market's inflation and interest rate expectations in Japan are rising, putting pressure on the long-term bond market [1] - The performance of German and U.S. government bonds is influenced by inflation concerns and safe-haven demand amid escalating tensions in the Middle East [2] - The decline in new home sales in Singapore is attributed to a lack of new launches, reflecting uncertainty in the macroeconomic outlook due to global trade challenges [3] Group 3: Currency and Oil Market Dynamics - The recent appreciation of the U.S. dollar is primarily driven by a rebound in oil prices rather than traditional safe-haven dynamics [4] - The U.S. has become one of the largest oil producers globally, which means that rising oil prices not only benefit oil-producing countries but also support the dollar through improved trade conditions [4] - Investors are advised to focus on global oil price changes and their impact on U.S. trade conditions for a more accurate prediction of the dollar's performance in international markets [5]

Market Analysis - The market is slowly moving forward with limited fluctuations in indices, as concerns over trade conflicts ease with new trade negotiations between China and the US [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index remains above the 5-day moving average, indicating a potential for continued slow upward movement [1] Future Outlook - The window for tariff events is closing, and a new policy window is expected to open in mid to late June, which may lead to market optimism if effective policies are implemented [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission has indicated that measures to stabilize employment and promote high-quality development will be rolled out by the end of June [2] - Short-term fluctuations may occur in popular sectors like banking and innovative pharmaceuticals, while TMT and technology growth sectors may see rebounds after sufficient adjustments [2] Hot Sectors - June is likely to be driven by event-based themes, with attention on low-position sectors such as consumption, pharmaceuticals, and adequately adjusted technology growth [3] - The focus on expanding domestic consumption is a key task for 2025, with expectations for policy support in sectors like dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [3] - The trend of robot localization and integration into daily life is expected to continue, with opportunities arising in sensors, controllers, and dexterous hands [3] - The semiconductor localization trend remains strong, with attention on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [3] - The military industry is anticipated to see a rebound in orders by 2025, with signs of recovery in various sub-sectors [3] - Innovative pharmaceuticals are entering a growth phase after a four-year adjustment, with positive net profit growth expected to continue into 2025 [3] Market Review - The A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index remaining above the 5-day moving average and showing signs of divergence in moving averages [4] - Popular sectors like banking and innovative pharmaceuticals maintained strong performance, with over 2300 stocks rising, indicating a favorable earning environment [4] - Leading sectors included non-ferrous metals, media, beauty care, pharmaceutical biology, and communications, while sectors like home appliances, coal, food and beverage, agriculture, and real estate faced declines [4]

Core Viewpoint - The overall growth outlook remains stable despite trade conflicts, with the monetary policy cycle nearing its end [1] Economic Conditions - Medium-term inflation is stabilizing at target levels [1] - Financing conditions are no longer constrained [1] - Private consumption is supporting economic growth [1] Sector Performance - The manufacturing and construction sectors are experiencing a recovery [1] - Defense and infrastructure spending are offsetting the impact of tariffs [1] Labor Market - Wage growth is expected to slow further [1] Energy and Currency - Energy prices and the euro could fluctuate in either direction [1] - The global role of the euro is strong and may further strengthen [1]

欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔：尽管存在贸易冲突，但欧元区增长前景总体保持稳定。 ...

Group 1 - The A500 index (000510) experienced a slight decline of 0.16% as of June 12, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - Tianfu Communication (300394) led the gains with an increase of 11.15%, while Chuangfeng Power (603129) was the biggest loser, down 3.27% [1] - The A500 ETF fund (512050) showed a tight trading range with a latest price of 0.95 yuan and a turnover rate of 5.45%, with a total transaction volume of 8.65 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - According to Citic Securities, the A-share market is expected to stabilize due to improved risk appetite following negotiations between China and the U.S. leadership [2] - The manufacturing PMI showed recovery in May after a decline due to trade conflicts in April, while the non-manufacturing PMI is approaching 50, indicating weak verification of recovery [2] - The A500 ETF closely tracks the A500 index, which selects 500 securities with larger market capitalization and better liquidity from various industries [2] Group 3 - As of May 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the A500 index accounted for 21.21% of the index, including Kweichow Moutai (600519) and CATL (300750) [2] - The top ten stocks by weight include Kweichow Moutai (4.28%), CATL (2.96%), and Ping An Insurance (2.46%) [3] Group 4 - The A500 ETF fund has several related funds, including the 华夏中证A500ETF联接A (022430) and 华夏中证A500指数增强A (023619) [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. tariff imposition on China has led to a swift response from the U.S. government, indicating a potential willingness to negotiate after only a few days of enforcement [1][9]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The U.S. and China are both suffering from the trade conflict, but China is better positioned to endure short-term economic pressures due to its role as a seller, while the U.S. faces immediate needs for essential goods [4]. - The U.S. is struggling to find alternative sources for critical components, such as chips and semiconductors, which are primarily sourced from China, leading to potential business failures in the U.S. if the situation persists [5]. - The Oxford Economics expert suggests that while China may not immediately offset the impacts of a complete economic decoupling, it has long-term strategies to adapt, including diversifying its export markets through initiatives like the Belt and Road [7]. Group 2: U.S. Policy Adjustments - On November 11, the U.S. announced a list of nearly 1,000 products, including electronics and raw materials, that would be subject to lower tariffs, effectively exempting them from the high tariffs previously imposed [9]. - This exemption is seen as a significant concession from the Trump administration, aimed at facilitating negotiations with China, as the U.S. relies heavily on Chinese imports for many essential goods [10]. - The U.S. media has interpreted this move as a sign of Trump's desire to negotiate, although he still seeks to maintain a strong position domestically by not appearing to back down [12]. Group 3: Agricultural Shifts - China has historically relied on the U.S. for agricultural imports, particularly soybeans, but has begun to shift its sourcing to countries like Brazil and Argentina, which are now major suppliers [14][15]. - Brazil's soybean exports to China are projected to reach 74.65 million tons in 2024, accounting for 71.1% of China's total soybean imports, indicating a significant shift in trade dynamics [15]. - The U.S. agricultural sector's reliance on China has diminished, as China has prepared for these changes, highlighting the contrasting adaptability of both nations in response to trade pressures [16][18].