对于何时降息，美联储内部"观望派"与"行动派"的争议公然摆上台面。 美联储主席鲍威尔在国会作证时对于7月降息的可能性有所"松口"，叠加两位美联储官员意外转向鸽 派，令市场嗅到了降息将至的气息。然而，市场的乐观情绪未能延续多久——次日，多位美联储官员就 集体"泼冷水"，强调需要更多数据确保贸易政策不会持续推高通胀。 美联储内部对于经济前景的分歧已然公开化，这与6月点阵图透露的信号不谋而合。从最新一期的美联 储利率"点阵图"来看，在19位官员中，有7位认为美联储今年不应该降息，有8位支持降息两次。从上述 数据来看，支持年内降息两次和不降息的人数几乎持平，可见美联储内部对经济形势判断呈现多元化特 征。 观望仍是主基调 为何美联储内部对于经济走势和政策应对的分歧如此之大？美联储究竟在观望什么？ 业内人士普遍认为，美联储降息的主要掣肘仍在于贸易政策的不确定性，需要等待更为明确的数据，以 判断贸易政策对通胀的"冲击"程度。 业内人士普遍认为，在贸易政策对通胀的"冲击"尚未完全显现之前，美联储仍有理由"静观其变"。多重 因素交织之下，市场押注9月开启降息的可能性逐步上升。 美联储内部"裂痕"加深 继美联储"明星"理事的鸽派 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in 2025 are more likely to be driven by inflation rather than unemployment rates, as the labor market may not directly lead to rising unemployment due to immigration policies affecting labor growth [2][3] - The U.S. economy is expected to enter the second half of 2025 on an unstable foundation, with the first quarter's GDP contraction exceeding initial estimates and a low-quality rebound in the second quarter influenced by reduced trade deficits and cautious consumer and business spending [2][3] - The upcoming U.S. core PCE price index is viewed as a critical reference for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with weak performance potentially reinforcing a dovish stance and increasing downward pressure on the dollar [1][2] Group 2 - If the U.S. adopts more closed trade policies, the Eurozone could become the largest economy outside the U.S., attracting more investment interest towards the Euro [2] - Geopolitical tensions easing have nearly completely offset the temporary support the dollar received as a safe-haven asset, while the Euro is expected to benefit from ongoing pessimism surrounding the dollar [2] - Despite $250 billion to $300 billion in tariff revenues, the rising debt levels in the U.S. are unlikely to be alleviated in the short term, as the government is not expected to implement significant tax increases or spending cuts [3]

埃克森美孚首席执行官：（就欧盟气候法规问题）我们主张特朗普政府将其作为其贸易政策的一部分来 解决这个问题。 ...

Group 1 - The UK automotive industry experienced a significant decline in production, with May figures showing a 32.8% drop to 49,810 vehicles, marking the lowest level since 1949, excluding the pandemic year of 2020 [1][2] - Exports to the EU and the US, the two largest markets, fell by 22.5% and 55.4% respectively, indicating a severe impact from trade policies [1] - The decline in production is attributed to ongoing model transitions, restructuring, and the effects of tariffs imposed by the US [1] Group 2 - The reduction in tariffs on the first 100,000 UK cars imported to the US to 10% is expected to save Jaguar Land Rover millions of pounds annually [2] - The automotive sector is recognized as a key driver of international trade for the UK, with car exports to the US valued at £9 billion (approximately $12.36 billion), accounting for over 27% of total UK exports [2] - Year-to-date production in the UK automotive industry has decreased by 12.9% compared to 2024, totaling 348,226 vehicles, the lowest level since 1953 [2]

智通财经6月26日电，美联储巴尔金表示，可能需要较长时间来确定贸易政策。 ...

美联储巴尔金：可能需要较长时间才能最终确定贸易政策。 ...

参议院问答环节 提问: 相比去年12月,美联储大幅下调了经济预测,但 上调了失业率和通胀预期。背后的原因是什么? 跟债务 水平是否有关系。 回答:我们对贸易政策带来的长期影响没有看法,但预 测变化部分反映了贸易政策的影响。经济预测和货币政 策跟债务水平无关。财政政策是我们考量的因素之一, 因为可能会推高通胀。 美联储主席鲍威尔出席耆议院听证会 另十数据Vip 美联储主席鲍威尔:通胀预期已较今年四月略有下降。 多 精英会员 乡 显十数据 Kp ケ THE HONORABLE JEROME H. POWELI ■听证会关键看点 每位议员的提问时间为5分钟。 ● 近期的通胀预期指标有所抬升,关税是背后驱动因素 ● 关税的影响将取决于其最终水平 · 避免通胀持续上升的关键在于关税的影响程度、传导 至价格所需时间,以及是否能有效锚定长期通胀预期 ● 美联储处于有利位置,可以耐心等待更多关于经济走 势的明确信号，再决定是否调整政策立场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's June economic projections reflect the impact of trade policies to some extent [1] Group 1 - The latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicates that trade policies have influenced economic forecasts [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔：美联储预测的变化部分反映了贸易政策的影响。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the outcomes of trade policies in July and the future trajectory of geopolitical events may significantly impact the medium-term economic outlook in India [1]