Core Insights - The US services sector activity returned to expansion in October, with the ISM services PMI recorded at 52.4%, up from 50% in September, marking the eighth consecutive month above the threshold [1] - The business activity index rose significantly to 54.3%, a 4.4 percentage point increase from September's 49.9%, indicating a return to expansion [1] - The new orders index surged to 56.2%, a rise of 5.8 percentage points, reflecting improved demand in the services sector [1] Industry Performance - Eleven industries experienced growth in October, including accommodation and food services, retail, wholesale, real estate, healthcare, and transportation and warehousing [2] - Six industries faced contraction, including arts and entertainment, management services, finance and insurance, public administration, and construction [2] Employment and Inventory Trends - The employment index remained in contraction at 48.2%, indicating weak hiring intentions despite a slight improvement from September [1] - The inventory index recorded at 49.5%, still in contraction, as businesses generally reduced inventory levels to manage demand and cost uncertainties [2] Price and Supply Chain Dynamics - The prices index rose to 70%, the highest level since October 2022, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in the services sector, driven by tariffs affecting material and service costs [1] - The supplier deliveries index stood at 50.8%, indicating a continued slowdown in delivery speeds, which is typically associated with improved demand or supply chain constraints [1] Order Backlog and Economic Signals - The backlog of orders index dropped significantly to 40.8%, the second-lowest level since 2009, suggesting that businesses can manage current orders without significant delivery delays [2] - Feedback from industries indicated mixed economic signals, with some sectors experiencing seasonal demand improvements while others faced challenges from import restrictions and rising prices [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the UK services sector showed unexpected performance in October, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 52.3, indicating expansion and the strongest business outlook since October 2024 [1] - The services sector output and new orders both rebounded in October, driven by strong domestic market demand, which is a key growth driver for the industry [1] - Employment in the services sector has stabilized, with a significant slowdown in layoffs since September, reflecting improved business confidence regarding market prospects [1] Group 2 - The services sector's cost inflation rate has dropped to its lowest level since November 2024, providing important support for the decline in inflation [1] - The Bank of England is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4% during the upcoming monetary policy meeting, closely monitoring price changes in the services sector to assess inflationary pressures [2] - The collaborative improvement between the services and manufacturing sectors suggests that the UK economy may have moved past its previous sluggish period, gradually showing signs of recovery [2]

Core Insights - The Eurozone economy experienced its strongest expansion since May 2023 in October, driven significantly by Germany, which offset the weak performance of France [1][4]. Economic Performance - The final composite PMI for the Eurozone in October rose to 52.5, with Germany's composite PMI reaching a 29-month high, marking it as the growth engine for the region despite France's continued contraction [1][3]. - The services PMI for the Eurozone increased to 53, the highest in 17 months, with business activity index rising from 51.3 in September to 53.0, indicating robust growth in new orders and sales [3]. Germany's Economic Growth - Germany's composite PMI surged to 53.9, providing crucial support for regional economic expansion [4]. - The services PMI in Germany jumped from 51.5 in September to 54.6, marking the fastest growth in over two years, indicating a recovery from previous sluggishness [6]. - Employment in the services sector saw its fastest growth since April, driven by a significant increase in new business [8]. France's Economic Struggles - France's composite PMI fell to 47.7, the lowest in eight months, indicating a deepening contraction [9]. - The services PMI in France was at 48.0, remaining in contraction for the 14th consecutive month, with political uncertainty dampening demand [11]. - Despite the economic downturn, service sector employment grew for the third month, showing some resilience, although the decline in backlogs suggests potential challenges ahead [15]. Inflation and Pricing Trends - Input cost inflation in the Eurozone eased for the second consecutive month, reaching a three-month low, while output prices increased to the highest level in seven months [3][17]. - The overall inflation rate returned to the survey average, with service sector pricing showing a notable increase [17]. - The current economic growth and manageable inflation pressures provide the European Central Bank with policy flexibility to balance economic support and price stability [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 5, for the manganese - silicon 2601 contract, it was reported at 5776, up 0.24%. The spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5540, down 10 yuan/ton. It should be treated as a volatile market, and investors should control risks. For the silicon - iron 2601 contract, it was reported at 5560, up 0.98%. The spot price in Ningxia was 5220, down 40 yuan/ton. It should also be treated as a volatile market, and investors should control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 was 1268.50 yuan/ton, up 15.50 yuan; J主力合约收盘价 was 1753.00 yuan/ton, up 24.00 yuan. JM期货合约持仓量 was 939019.00 hands, up 4651.00 hands; J期货合约持仓量 was 49255.00 hands, down 185.00 hands. The net position of the top 20 JM contracts was - 57205.00 hands, up 14755.00 hands; the net position of the top 20 J contracts was - 5144.00 hands, up 470.00 hands. The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 63.50 yuan/ton, up 5.00 yuan; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 142.00 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan. The JM and J warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 900.00 and 2070.00 respectively [2]. Spot Market - The prices of various types of coking coal and metallurgical coke in the spot market remained unchanged. The JM主力合约基差 was 301.50 yuan/ton, down 15.50 yuan; the J主力合约基差 was 22.00 yuan/ton, down 24.00 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 27.50 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; the weekly inventory was 295.00 million tons, up 10.60 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.38%, up 0.01%. The monthly raw coal output was 41150.50 million tons, up 2100.80 million tons. The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4600.00 million tons, up 326.00 million tons. The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 190.30 million tons, down 0.60 million tons. The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 513.89 million tons, up 6.71 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 269.90 million tons, up 9.11 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1092.36 million tons, up 76.14 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 54.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons. The monthly output of coking coal was 3975.92 million tons, up 279.06 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.44%, down 0.03%. The weekly profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was - 32.00 yuan, up 9.00 yuan. The monthly output of coke was 4255.60 million tons, down 4.10 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 81.73%, down 3.00%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 88.59%, down 1.33%. The monthly crude steel output was 7349.01 million tons, down 387.84 million tons [2]. Industry News - On November 4, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin raised the coke purchase price for the third time, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on November 5, 2025. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the key interest rate at 3.6% and warned of increased inflationary pressures. The CEOs of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs warned that the stock market may be heading for a pull - back. The President of the Swiss National Bank said that inflation should rise slightly in the next few quarters [2]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron Market - Manganese - silicon 2601 contract: On November 5, it was reported at 5776, up 0.24%. The spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5540, down 10 yuan/ton. Some steel mills in Shanxi planned to shut down for maintenance earlier than last year. The inventory increased rapidly, the output continued to decline slightly from a high level, and the cost of imported manganese ore decreased by 11.3 million tons. The iron - water demand declined seasonally. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 160 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 260 yuan/ton. The mainstream steel procurement price in October was 5820 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton month - on - month [2]. - Silicon - iron 2601 contract: On November 5, it was reported at 5560, up 0.98%. The spot price in Ningxia was 5220, down 40 yuan/ton. The macro - environment saw the Reserve Bank of Australia keeping the key interest rate at 3.6% and warning of inflation. The supply - demand was in a weak balance, the inventory was at a neutral level, and the cost was supported in the short term. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 310 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 510 yuan/ton [2].

智通财经APP获悉，澳洲联储周二如期维持关键利率不变，同时警告称经济中通胀压力增强，并重申未来的政策走向将由最新数据决定。澳洲联储货币政策 委员会九名成员一致同意将现金利率维持在3.6%不变，原因是上季度消费者价格指数涨幅超出预期，而劳动力市场依然紧张。该委员会在声明中表示："最 近的通胀数据表明，经济中可能仍存在一些通胀压力。""由于私人需求正在复苏，劳动力市场状况仍显得有些紧张。委员会在本次会议上将现金利率维持在 当前水平是合适的。" 澳洲联储此次利率决议出台之际，高盛集团和澳大利亚联邦银行等机构的经济学家普遍认为，澳洲联储的降息周期已结束。市场普遍预测，澳洲联储下一次 降息将在2026年5月进行。分析人士指出，在家庭现金储备充裕、经济增速预期回升的背景下，通胀再度抬头的风险促使澳洲联储谨慎行事。 在澳洲联储按兵不动之前，美联储已于上周连续第二次降息。尽管包括美联储主席鲍威尔在内的多位政策制定者立场偏向鹰派，但市场仍认为美联储在12月 有可能再次降息。与此同时，市场预计英国央行同样将在周四按兵不动，因为它也在与通胀压力作斗争。 全球就业网站Indeed Inc的经济学家Callam Pickering表示 ...

周二，澳洲联储继续维持其关键利率不变，但同时警告经济中存在更强的通胀压力，并重申未来的行动将以新出炉的数据为指导。 澳洲联储周二决定将现金利率维持在3.6%不变。此前，澳大利亚上季度消费者价格指数涨幅超出预期，而劳动力市场依旧紧张。根据声明，这一决定由九 人组成的委员会一致通过。行长布洛克将在晚些时候举行新闻发布会。 委员会在声明中表示："最近的通胀数据表明，经济中可能仍然存在一定的通胀压力。鉴于私人需求正在复苏，劳动力市场状况似乎仍有些紧张，委员会认 为在本次会议上将现金利率维持在当前水平是合适的。" 决议公布后，澳元小幅走低，而对政策敏感的三年期政府债券收益率则跌至3.61%。 澳洲联储周二还发布了季度宏观经济预测，显示核心通胀预计将在2026年中期前攀升至2-3%目标区间的上限以上，而劳动力市场可能保持大致稳定。最新 的预测是基于明年第二季度将有一次降息的假设。 澳洲联储表示，强于预期的第三季度CPI报告"表明潜在的通胀压力可能比我们之前想象的要大一些"，并指出，近期的一系列数据增加了这样一种可能性， 即"经济中的产能压力比我们之前评估的要稍大"。 澳洲联储在双重使命下运作，其目标是在实现可持续的充分就 ...

今日周一（11月3日）亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于3962.33美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 3998.88美元/盎司，跌幅0.05%，最高上探至4003.11美元/盎司，最低触及3962.33美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏向震荡走势。 所幸的是，下周将有大量美国私营部门数据公布。其中，以往常被忽视的JOLTS职位空缺和Challenger 裁员数据此次将受到应有的重视。不过，市场的目光无疑会聚焦于两份ISM调查以及ADP就业报告上。 若下周公布的一系列数据表现疲软，将重新点燃市场对12月降息的预期。这些数据将比以往更受密切关 注，以便从中探寻劳动力市场的健康状况以及通胀压力的迹象。 市场预期10月ISM制造业指数有望重返50荣枯线之上，这可能是自2025年2月以来的首次扩张。五大地 区联储调查中已有四份显示制造业有所改善。服务业方面，预计ISM指数将小幅扩张至50.4，但由于政 府停摆的影响，该指数跌入收缩区间的风险显著增加。 摘要今日周一（11月3日）亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于3962.33美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新 报3998.88美元/盎司，跌幅0.05%，最高上探至4003.1 ...

Group 1 - The CEO of Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, expressed concerns about the rapid increase in U.S. national debt, which has surpassed $38 trillion, and warned of potential "clearing" consequences if economic growth does not improve [2] - Since the 2008 financial crisis, the national debt has increased by over $7 trillion, with the pandemic accelerating government borrowing [2] - The current debt growth rate is nearly $70,000 per second, rising from $34 trillion in January 2024 to the current level, although Solomon maintains that the overall condition of the U.S. economy is good and the likelihood of recession is low [2] Group 2 - The cost of servicing the debt has rapidly eroded fiscal space, with interest payments exceeding $1.2 trillion, accounting for approximately 17% of federal spending, surpassing defense expenditures [2] - Budget oversight organizations have warned that this trend may further increase inflationary pressures and weaken consumer purchasing power [2] - Despite concerns about the potential weakening of the U.S. dollar's status as a reserve currency, Solomon disagrees, noting that global capital continues to flow into U.S. markets, indicating the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [2] Group 3 - The Trump administration claims that the fiscal deficit has decreased by about $350 billion this year compared to last year, attributing this to spending controls and improved revenues, although overall debt continues to grow [3] - Solomon emphasized that the ability to avoid future fiscal pressures depends on the overall economy's capacity for stronger expansion; otherwise, the debt burden will accumulate to a significant level [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strengthening of the US dollar amidst global market volatility driven by tech stock earnings and unclear central bank policies, highlighting a shift in market sentiment towards safer assets like the dollar [1][6]. Group 1: US Dollar Dynamics - The US dollar index stabilized at 99.5, reaching a three-month high due to risk-averse sentiment following a decline in US stocks [1]. - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path have shifted, with traders reducing bets on a rate cut in December, enhancing the appeal of dollar assets [6][8]. - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to approximately 4.1%, reflecting the changing market expectations and increasing the relative attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [8]. Group 2: Japanese Yen Performance - The Japanese yen stabilized after reaching a near nine-month low, supported by comments from the new Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, who indicated a heightened monitoring of foreign exchange trends [3][7]. - Despite a slight rebound, the yen has depreciated by 4% against the dollar over the past month, marking its worst monthly performance since July [3]. - Tokyo's core consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and complicating the Bank of Japan's position on maintaining interest rates [7]. Group 3: Other Major Currencies - The euro appreciated to 1.156 against the dollar, following the European Central Bank's decision to keep rates unchanged at 2% for the third consecutive meeting [11]. - The British pound remained stable at 1.31555 against the dollar, amid political pressures faced by the UK Chancellor [15]. - Commodity currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars showed weakness, with the Australian dollar down 0.1% to 0.65495 and the New Zealand dollar down 0.2% to 0.57325, reflecting global risk aversion [15].

Core Insights - The global gold market is experiencing significant demand growth, driven primarily by investment needs, with a record total demand of 1313 tons in Q3 2025, amounting to $146 billion [1][2] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of October 30, 2025, the London spot gold price reached $3974.16 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over 1% [1] - The average gold price in Q3 2025 hit a record high of $3456.54 per ounce, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5% [1] Group 2: Investment Demand - Investment demand for gold surged to 537 tons in Q3 2025, a 47% year-on-year increase, constituting 55% of the total net demand for the quarter [1] - Investors have significantly increased their holdings in physical gold ETFs, with an additional 222 tons added in Q3 2025, leading to a total inflow of $26 billion [2] Group 3: Gold Supply Dynamics - The total global gold supply reached 1313 tons in Q3 2025, a record high, with gold mine production increasing by 2% to 977 tons and recycled gold supply rising by 6% to 344 tons [3] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, high inflation, and uncertainties in global trade policies are driving the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 4: Central Bank Purchases - Central banks accelerated their gold purchases in Q3 2025, with a net purchase of 220 tons, a 28% increase from Q2 and a 10% year-on-year rise [2]