Group 1 - Global market sentiment is cautious as investors await signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole annual meeting from August 21 to 23 [1][2] - Economists suggest Powell may adopt a more cautious tone this year compared to last year, where he explicitly mentioned the reasons for potential rate cuts [1][2] - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month is over 80%, according to the interest rate futures market [2] Group 2 - Investors are also looking forward to the release of the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes for additional policy clues [3] - Current inflation levels in the U.S. remain above the established target, with some opinions attributing this to one-time factors rather than a long-term trend [3] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to have differing views on the possibility of a rate cut in September, with a consensus leaning towards a 25 basis point cut rather than a 50 basis point cut [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the market is anticipating a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, driven by recent economic data and comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Basset [1] - The latest economic data shows a moderate increase in U.S. inflation for July, which, combined with Basset's remarks, has strengthened expectations for a rate cut [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut have surged, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in the September meeting reaching 99.9%, the highest in recent years [1] Group 2 - The dollar index faces strong resistance between the levels of 98.245 and 98.672, which could limit its upward movement [2] - The 98.245 level corresponds to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the decline in August, while 98.672 is identified as this week's high [2] - If these resistance levels hold, the dollar index may continue to decline, with an initial target set at the July 24 low of 97.107 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Short - term trading focuses on interest - rate cut expectations. US inflation data shows potential upward pressure, and the actual rate - cut magnitude is uncertain. The extension of the China - US tariff truce releases short - term tariff risks. In the fundamental aspect, it is approaching the traditional peak season, with strong spot premiums, declining domestic social inventories, and improved spot trading after price drops. In the long - term, copper pricing will return to macro trading. The weak US economy caps the upside of copper prices, but the market is not in a recession narrative, so the downside is also limited. Short - term trading is expected to be range - bound between 78,000 - 80,000 [1]. Aluminum - Last week, the aluminum price first rose and then fell. Supply - side news initially boosted the price, but later, the price was pressured by factors such as the increase in registered warehouse receipts. In the fundamental aspect, the supply of bauxite is expected to tighten in the short - term, but the alumina market will remain in a slight surplus in the medium - term due to profit - driven capacity recovery and new capacity additions. The price of the main alumina contract is expected to fluctuate between 3,000 - 3,300. For electrolytic aluminum, the market is affected by factors such as supply - side disturbances, demand weakness, and macro uncertainties. The price of the main contract is expected to be between 20,000 - 21,000 [5]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market remains in a situation of weak supply and demand. The cost is supported by the shortage of scrap aluminum, but the demand is suppressed by the traditional off - season and weak orders in the automotive industry. The market is expected to remain range - bound between 19,600 - 20,400, and attention should be paid to changes in scrap aluminum supply and imports [7]. Zinc - Upstream zinc mines are in an up - cycle of production and resumption. The zinc ore TC has risen, but the production growth rates of the global and domestic zinc mines in some periods were lower than expected. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, with low spot premiums and low operating rates in primary processing industries. The low global inventory provides price support. The zinc price is expected to be range - bound between 22,000 - 23,000 [11]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the actual output from Myanmar is expected to resume in the fourth quarter. The demand is weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation peak and the entry of the electronics industry into the off - season. The tin price has fallen due to factors such as the strong US dollar. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; otherwise, the price is expected to remain high and volatile [14]. Nickel - Last week, the nickel price fluctuated widely. The macro - environment shows easing inflation pressure and a weak employment market, increasing the market's expectation of more aggressive easing. The domestic nickel price is mainly oscillating, and the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose. The nickel price is expected to be range - bound between 118,000 - 126,000, and attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [16]. Stainless Steel - Last week, the stainless - steel price oscillated. The market is in the transition from the off - season to the peak season, with cautious downstream procurement. The export pressure has eased, and the macro - expectation has strengthened slightly. The price of raw materials is stable. The stainless - steel price is expected to be range - bound between 12,800 - 13,500, and attention should be paid to policy trends and nickel - iron dynamics [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate futures price increased significantly. The fundamental situation is in a tight balance. The supply is expected to contract in the short - term, while the demand is showing a positive trend as it enters the peak season. The market is in a state of overall de - stocking. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in a strong range, around 85,000 - 90,000. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and consider light - position long - entry on dips [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.32% to 79,180 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The import profit increased by 100.37 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.06 [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the electrolytic copper production increased by 3.47% to 117.43 million tons, and the import volume increased by 18.74% to 30.05 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 10.01% to 55.76 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price remained unchanged at 20,710 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 100.3 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.02 [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the alumina production increased by 5.40% to 765.02 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.11% to 372.14 million tons. The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 4.26% to 58.80 million tons [5]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 55 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.63% to 62.50 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.31% to 26.60 million tons. The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 2.03% to 3.52 million tons [7]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.27% to 22,450 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. The import loss increased by 212.88 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.05 [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the refined zinc production increased by 3.03% to 60.28 million tons. The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 14.13% to 12.92 million tons [11]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 1.30% to 266,000 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 98 dollars/ton to 63 dollars/ton [14]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 310 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the domestic tin ore import volume decreased by 11.44% to 11,911 tons. The LME inventory decreased by 9.56% to 1,655 tons [14]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 1.50% to 121,500 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,200 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 231 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.01 [16]. - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production**: The cost of integrated MHP production of electrolytic nickel decreased by 2.81% to 118,531 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: The SHFE inventory increased by 1.72% to 26,194 tons, and the social inventory increased by 2.75% to 40,572 tons [16]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.76% to 13,100 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 24.64% to 260 yuan/ton [17]. - **Raw Material Price**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 0.11% to 926 yuan/nickel point [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.00% to 49.65 million tons [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.85% to 82,700 yuan/ton, and the SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide price increased by 1.37% to 74,040 yuan/ton. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread increased by 2.22% to 2,300 yuan/ton [20]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2511 spread increased by 180 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the lithium carbonate production increased by 4.41% to 81,530 tons, and the demand increased by 2.62% to 96,275 tons. The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2.01% to 97,846 tons [20].

Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares and the ChiNext index led global gains with an increase of 8.6%[27] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 3.0% and the Nikkei 225 increased by 3.7%[27] - Emerging markets, particularly A-shares, outperformed developed markets, with the overall A-share market up by 3.0% last week[31] Group 2: Currency and Commodity Trends - The US dollar index fell by 0.4%, while the euro, pound, and yen appreciated by 0.5%, 0.8%, and 0.4% respectively[5] - Since the beginning of the year, the US dollar index has decreased by 9.8%, with the euro, pound, and yen rising by 13%, 8.3%, and 6.4% respectively[5] - Commodity prices saw a general increase, with the South China and CRB commodity indices both rising by 0.5%[71] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The yield curve for Chinese bonds exhibited a "bear steepening" pattern, with the 10-year yield rising by 5.7 basis points to 1.75%[45] - The 10-year to 2-year yield spread for US bonds also expanded, indicating a "bear steepening" trend, with the 10-year yield increasing by 6 basis points to 4.33%[50] Group 4: Risk Premium Analysis - The risk premium for the CSI 300 relative to 10-year government bonds decreased to 5.7%, down by 0.14% from the previous value[19] - The risk premium for the S&P 500 relative to 10-year US Treasuries fell to -0.8%, a decrease of 0.10%[19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro aspect: During the reporting period, macro expectations fluctuated. At the beginning of the week, the market's expectation of three Fed rate cuts within the year significantly increased, with a potential rate cut of up to 175bp by the end of 2026. However, after the PPI data was released at the end of the week, the market reversed its assessment of inflation risks, and Fed officials released hawkish statements, leading to repeated macro expectations [3]. - Fundamental aspect: Overseas nickel ore supply is becoming more abundant, but there are no obvious signs of price decline. Ferronickel prices are rising, and ferronickel plant profits are recovering. However, stainless steel lacks upward momentum, and resource circulation is poor, resulting in weak ferronickel consumption. The nickel sulfate market remains hot, but terminal consumption is weak, and the sustainability of the market's heat is questionable. The spot market for pure nickel is sluggish, with strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment, and stable fluctuations in premiums and discounts [3]. - Future outlook: High inflation and weak employment may lead to repeated swings in rate - cut expectations, causing nickel prices to fluctuate. High tariffs are increasing upstream inflation pressure, and rising PPI may be transmitted to CPI. At the same time, weak non - farm data and rising unemployment may slow down total demand. The market's expectations for Fed monetary policy may swing between inflation control and employment stability. In the industry, stainless steel prices are falling after a rise, and new energy vehicle consumption growth has turned negative. Supply is expected to be stable, and there is an expectation of a weakening in the ore end, but it has not materialized. Overall, nickel prices will fluctuate under macro - level drivers [3][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Macro: As of August 9, the initial jobless claims were 224,000, lower than the expected 228,000. The US PPI annual rate in July was 3.3%, higher than the expected 2.5%. The monthly PPI in July increased by 0.9%, much higher than the expected 0.2%. At the beginning of the week, the US Treasury Secretary's remarks boosted rate - cut expectations, while at the end of the week, hawkish statements were released due to inflation concerns [5]. - Nickel ore: The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines dropped from $51/wet ton to $50/wet ton, while the domestic FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in Indonesia rose from $37.55/wet ton to $37.75/wet ton. Although the supply of nickel ore is expected to be more abundant, the price of Indonesian nickel ore remains firm [5]. - Pure nickel: In July, domestic monthly production capacity decreased slightly by 400 tons to 53,699 tons, while smelter production plans increased slightly month - on - month. In July, electrolytic nickel production was 32,800 tons, an increase of about 1,000 tons from the previous month, and the operating rate was 61.08%, up about 1.86 percentage points. In June, domestic electrolytic nickel exports decreased by 5.66% year - on - year and 3,830 tons month - on - month, while imports increased by 119.71% year - on - year. As of August 14, the export profit of nickel in China was - $6.68/ton. Overall, import resources are stable, but export profits are shrinking, and smelting supply remains high [6]. - Ferronickel: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) rose from 912 yuan/nickel point to 918.5 yuan/nickel point. In July, China's ferronickel production was about 24,540 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%. In June, domestic ferronickel imports were about 1.0414 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.05%. Imports from Indonesia were about 1.0177 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase. In July, Indonesia's ferronickel production was about 134,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.14% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.73%. As of July 31, the physical ton inventory of ferronickel was 284,900 tons, an increase of about 31,000 tons from the previous period [7]. - Stainless steel: In July, the production plan for 300 - series stainless steel in China was about 1.74 million tons, an increase of about 15 tons compared to the same period last year and unchanged month - on - month. Although stainless steel prices have rebounded, downstream demand is weak, and holders are actively reducing prices to sell. The recovery space for ferronickel is limited due to weak consumption [8]. - Nickel sulfate: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose from 27,440 yuan/ton to 27,530 yuan/ton, while the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 28,000 yuan/ton. In July, the metal output of nickel sulfate was about 29,084 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.77% and a month - on - month increase of 17.3%. The output of ternary materials in July increased to about 68,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.7% and a month - on - month increase of 5.8%. As of August 8, the downstream inventory days of nickel sulfate increased to 11 days, while the upstream inventory days remained at about 6 days. The spot market for nickel sulfate is hot, but price increases are mainly cost - driven, and production profitability remains negative overall [8]. - New energy: From August 1 - 10, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 452,000 vehicles, a 4% year - on - year decrease and a 6% month - on - month increase. The retail sales of the national new energy passenger car market were 262,000 vehicles, a 6% year - on - year and month - on - month increase, with a retail penetration rate of 57.9%. The new energy market is also showing signs of weakness, and the consumption in August is facing high - base pressure. Although subsidy policies may boost consumption, the core driving force for consumption lies in employment and income [9]. - Inventory: The current total social inventory of pure nickel in six locations is 41,891 tons, a decrease of 1,319 tons from the previous period. The SHFE inventory is 22,141 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,418 tons. The LME nickel inventory is 211,662 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 570 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges is 233,803 tons, a month - on - month increase of 848 tons [10]. 3.2 Industry News - Winshear Gold Corp. has signed an option agreement for the Portsoy nickel - copper - cobalt project in Scotland. If the agreement is approved, Winshear will obtain 100% equity in the project, covering 250 square kilometers. Winshear promises to invest £3 million in 5 years and issue 6.5 million shares to Peak Nickel. Peak Nickel will retain a 1% NSR with a maximum limit of £10 million and may receive a 10% share of the proceeds if the project is acquired by a third party [12]. - Lifezone Metals has obtained a $60 million bridge loan for its Kabanga nickel project in Tanzania. The Kabanga project is one of the largest and highest - grade undeveloped nickel sulfide projects in the world, containing over 2 million tons of battery - grade metal resources and significant amounts of copper and cobalt [12]. - The nickel industry in Indonesia is facing multiple challenges, including regulatory pressure, ESG compliance requirements, and the need to increase downstream added value. Rising costs such as royalties, reclamation deposits, and the upcoming global minimum tax may force some smelters to shut down. The APNI has developed national ESG parameters by integrating 57 regulations from six ministries with international standards [12]. 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the trends of domestic and international nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, LME0 - 3 nickel premiums and discounts, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless steel prices, and stainless steel inventory [14][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, precious metal prices showed a volatile correction. Higher - than - expected US inflation data dampened rate - cut expectations, and the optimistic global trade sentiment boosted investor confidence, leading to a rise in market risk appetite and putting pressure on gold and silver prices [3][5]. - The higher - than - expected US PPI data in July indicated persistent inflation pressure, and the labor market remained resilient, weakening the expectation of a significant rate cut in September. However, some senior officials still called for rate cuts, and monetary policy remained highly uncertain [3][5]. - The market focus has shifted to the US - Russia - Ukraine meeting and its potential impact on the geopolitical situation and safe - haven assets. Gold and silver are expected to show a volatile trend in the short term [3][6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 775.80 | - 12.00 | - 1.52 | 197655 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 623.59 | 31.69 | 5.35 | 23234 | 198744 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 3381.70 | - 76.50 | - 2.21 | | | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 9204 | - 74 | - 0.80 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 7762 | 212 | 2.81 | 452542 | 3447314 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 38.02 | - 0.49 | - 1.27 | | | US dollars/ounce | [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Precious metal prices showed a volatile correction last week due to higher - than - expected US inflation data and optimistic global trade sentiment [3][5]. - The US PPI data in July and the labor market situation weakened the expectation of a significant rate cut in September, but there were still calls for rate cuts from some officials, and monetary policy was uncertain [3][5]. - After the "Trump - Putin meeting", the market is paying attention to the US - Russia - Ukraine meeting and its impact on geopolitics and safe - haven assets. Gold and silver will be volatile in the short term. This week, key data such as the preliminary PMI data for July in the US and the Eurozone and the number of initial jobless claims in the US should be focused on, as well as events like the release of the Fed's July monetary policy meeting minutes, the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium, and the possible US - Russia - Ukraine tripartite meeting [6]. 3.3 Important Data Information - US CPI in July was flat year - on - year at 2.7%, lower than the expected 2.8%, and rose 0.2% month - on - month, in line with market expectations. Core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3%, reaching a new high since February [8]. - US PPI in July soared to 3.3% year - on - year, the highest since February this year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%, and rose 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase since June 2022, further frustrating the Fed's September rate - cut expectation [8]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 224,000, lower than the expected 228,000, a slight decrease of 3,000, remaining at a low level since November 2021. The number of continued claims dropped to 1.953 million, slightly lower than expected but still hovering at a high level since 2021, indicating a still - robust labor market [8]. - US retail sales in July increased 0.5% month - on - month, with real retail sales growing for the tenth consecutive month. The year - on - year increase was 3.9%, and the June data was revised up to 0.9%. After inflation adjustment, real retail sales increased 1.2% year - on - year, showing resilient consumer spending [8]. - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in August was 58.6, lower than the expected 62, and the sub - indices also declined. Both short - and long - term inflation expectations rose, reflecting concerns about the impact of tariffs [9]. - The preliminary value of the 1 - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan in the US in August was 4.9%, erasing last month's improvement, and the 5 - year inflation expectation was 3.9%, higher than expected [9]. - The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in the Eurozone in August was 25.1, down from the previous value of 36.1. In Germany, it was 34.7, lower than the expected 39.8 and the previous value of 52.7 [9]. 3.4 Related Data Charts - **Precious Metal ETF Holdings Changes**: As of August 15, 2025, the total gold holdings of ETFs were 965.37 tons, an increase of 5.73 tons from last week, 21.74 tons from last month, and 110.40 tons from last year. The silver holdings of ishare were 15071.31 tons, an increase of 80.51 tons from last week, 413.10 tons from last month, and 595.01 tons from last year [10]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions Changes**: For gold futures on August 12, 2025, non - commercial long positions were 288,115, non - commercial short positions were 58,630, and non - commercial net long positions were 229,485, a decrease of 7,565 from last week. For silver futures on the same date, non - commercial long positions were 66,252, non - commercial short positions were 21,984, and non - commercial net long positions were 44,268, a decrease of 6,390 from last week [11][13].

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Samsonite's adjusted EBITDA for Q2 is $141 million, roughly in line with the expected $145 million [1] Financial Performance - Revenue decreased by 5.8% year-on-year at constant exchange rates, driven by cautious purchasing decisions from wholesale clients [1] - Wholesale channel revenue fell by 8.7% year-on-year, while direct sales only saw a decline of 1.3% [1] Management Outlook - Management anticipates some improvement in sales patterns for Q3, although ongoing trade policy uncertainties and inflationary pressures are affecting consumer sentiment and demand [1] - The company is taking measures to mitigate tariff impacts, including increasing inventory before tariff hikes and raising prices [1] Forecast Adjustments - UBS has raised its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for Samsonite for the years 2023 to 2027 by 2% to 4%, along with a 2% increase in net sales forecasts [1] - It is expected that the year-on-year revenue decline will narrow in the second half of the year, with an overall anticipated revenue drop of 5% for the year [1] Target Price and Rating - UBS has increased its target price for Samsonite to HKD 17.2, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1]

摘要今日周一（8月18日）亚盘，黄金小幅高开，现报3337美元/盎司。本周金价整体跌1.8%，徘徊于 3336美元上下。8月14日数据显，7月PPI环比飙升0.9%远超预期，创2022年6月来最大涨幅；同比增 3.3%。强劲数据打击市场对美联储9月降息预期，此前超95%概率现降至92%，致金价承压下行。 今日周一（8月18日）亚盘，黄金小幅高开，现报3337美元/盎司。本周金价整体跌1.8%，徘徊于3336美 元上下。8月14日数据显，7月PPI环比飙升0.9%远超预期，创2022年6月来最大涨幅；同比增3.3%。强 劲数据打击市场对美联储9月降息预期，此前超95%概率现降至92%，致金价承压下行。 在本周（8月21日至23日）举行的杰克逊霍尔研讨会，无疑成为了市场的瞩目焦点，其中尤以美联储主 席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的年度演讲备受期待。分析师James Stanley预判，此次参会的中央银行家们大概率会倾 向于发表鸽派言论，而刻意回避鹰派立场，这种政策导向有望对金价形成有力支撑。与此同时，分析师 Colin Cieszynski也着重提到，该会议的结果极有可能左右美元汇率的走向，进而间接影响到黄金市场的 行情波动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Daly, supports the Federal Reserve's plan to ease monetary policy next month, despite recent economic data showing stronger-than-expected retail sales and a significant rise in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [1] Economic Indicators - In July, the U.S. PPI increased by 0.9% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, marking the largest month-on-month increase in three years, significantly exceeding market expectations [1] - The rise in PPI indicates that businesses are passing on higher import costs related to tariffs to consumers, suggesting potential sustained inflationary pressures, particularly influenced by the Trump administration's tariff policies [1] - July retail sales in the U.S. showed a month-on-month increase, driven by strong automobile sales and major online promotions, reflecting resilient consumer spending and boosting optimism about U.S. economic growth [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Daly believes that two rate cuts within this year are a reasonable expectation, despite the labor market showing signs of slowing and inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's target [1] - She emphasizes the importance of not delaying necessary support for the labor market due to excessive concerns about potential inflation resurgence [1] - Daly opposes a 50 basis point rate cut at the upcoming September meeting, expressing concern that such a move would signal an emergency situation, which she does not believe is warranted given the current labor market conditions [1]

Group 1 - The effective tariff rate paid by importers is significantly lower than the official rate, which has helped mitigate inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy [1][3] - As of June, only 48% of U.S. imports were actually subject to tariffs due to numerous exemptions, including critical goods like pharmaceuticals and electronics [3] - Importers have adjusted their sourcing strategies, turning to countries with lower tariffs or domestic suppliers, contributing to a lower effective tariff rate [4] Group 2 - The current low effective tariff rates may not be sustainable, with predictions that the average tariff rate could rise from approximately 10% to around 15% [6] - The White House plans to suspend the "minimum exemption" rule, which previously allowed duty-free entry for packages valued under $800 [7] - Companies are beginning to pass on increased costs to consumers, with some planning price hikes in response to clearer tariff outlooks [9]