【要闻速递】 花旗分析师指出，相较于鲍威尔在6月议息会议后的新闻发布会，美联储6月会议纪要的措辞可能更显鸽 派倾向。当时，鲍威尔极力保持中立语调，并着重强调了美联储的双重职责。然而，会议纪要往往能揭 示更多鲍威尔未直接言明的信息，尤其是降息条件正逐渐放宽这一趋势。 近期公布的点阵图揭示了美联储内部的显著分歧：一方预计年内将降息两次，而另一方则坚持认为无需 降息。摩根士丹利分析师表示，他们将仔细研究会议纪要，以探寻这一分歧背后的具体原因。较为鹰派 的委员可能会透露，他们正密切关注失业率的上升，或需要更多时间来评估关税及其他财政政策对通胀 的潜在影响。值得注意的是，鲍威尔曾提及，他预计关税对通胀的影响将在今夏显现，并暗示当前阻碍 美联储采取宽松政策的唯一因素是通胀压力的不确定性。若会议纪要中体现出对这一观点的部分认同， 则可能预示着美联储正朝着更加主动和积极的立场转变。 今日周三（7月9日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于765.42元附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报767.00元/ 克，下跌0.97%，最高触及775.30元/克，最低下探765.42元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看跌走 势。 打开APP，查看更多高 ...

智通财经7月9日电，新西兰央行称，如果通胀压力缓解，预计将进一步降息。 ...

新西兰联储：全球政策不确定性加剧，关税预计将降低全球经济增长。这可能会减缓新西兰经济复苏的 步伐，减轻通胀压力。 ...

Group 1 - The recent depreciation of the US dollar is primarily driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, indicating a cyclical rather than a structural trend [2][4][12] - As of July 4, the US dollar index fell below 97, marking a 4.7% decline from its peak on May 12, with significant depreciation against major currencies [6][82] - The decline in the dollar is also linked to easing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Israel-Palestine conflict, which has reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar [4][24][86] Group 2 - The narrative of "de-dollarization" has not accelerated in recent years, with the dollar's share of global reserves only decreasing from 55% in 2016 to 52% in 2024 when excluding China [3][42][44] - The correlation between the US GDP share and the dollar index is weak when excluding valuation effects, suggesting that fundamental trends may have limited impact on the dollar's value [3][30][36] - Recent capital flows indicate a temporary flight from US assets, but foreign investment in US Treasuries has stabilized since mid-May, questioning the sustainability of this trend [3][54][55] Group 3 - Potential scenarios for a strengthening dollar include rising inflation pressures leading to delayed interest rate cuts, which could support a rebound in the dollar index [5][65][88] - The implementation of the "Inflation Reduction Act" may boost US economic growth, potentially leading to a stronger dollar as financial conditions ease [5][78][88] - High levels of short positions against the dollar may create conditions for a short-term rebound, as seen in historical patterns when similar positions were reached [5][72][88]

白宫2月份表示，美国拥有充足的铜储量，但"我们的冶炼和精炼产能明显落后于全球竞争对手"。政府的目标是确保美国维 持该金属的弹性供应链。前总统拜登也曾类似地试图促进国内采矿生产和金属加工。 据摩根士丹利报告，第232条调查的结论比预期来得更早，本来有270天的期限可以延续到11月底。关税的具体实施细节仍 不明确，包括是否适用于所有铜产品，以及是否会有豁免条款。 受该消息影响，铜期货合约单日暴涨13%创纪录新高，创下自1968年有记录以来的最大单日涨幅。 美国总统特朗普周二宣布将对铜进口征收50%关税，这一税率远超市场预期，引发美国铜期货价格暴涨13%至历史新高。 这一关税水平约为市场预期的两倍，远超此前市场普遍预期的25%左右水平，是继铝和钢材关税之后，美国对关键工业原 材料征收的又一轮进口税，威胁为美国经济的关键投入品增加新成本。美国商务部长Howard Lutnick表示，新关税将在8月 1日或更早生效。 铜价上涨引发市场对通胀压力和需求破坏的担忧。美国作为全球主要铜进口国，去年净进口量占其需求的53%，主要来源 为智利和加拿大。 据摩根士丹利分析，关税实施将对COMEX铜价形成利好，但可能对伦敦金属交易所 ...

机构：美国利率年末料微降，实质降息在明年 金十数据7月8日讯，Insight Investment固收主管Brendan Murphy在报告中指出，美国利率在今年年底前 可能小幅下行，但实质性的降息将出现在明年。尽管经济前景正在转弱，但近期美国贸易关税带来的通 胀压力将使美联储的政策反应变得更加复杂。在这种背景下，预计美联储将采取谨慎态度。该机构预 计，在2026年通胀压力缓解、增长担忧成为主导因素后，美联储将采取更加果断的降息举措。 ...

声明中还强调，全球经济不确定性高企，尤其是美国关税政策演变或对贸易活动及企业投资决策造成冲 击。尽管澳大利亚受美国关税直接影响有限（钢铁、铝等行业除外），但生产力委员会模型显示，全球 贸易政策不确定性可能拖累澳GDP增长0.37%。国内方面，劳动力市场仍紧张，工资增速高位徘徊，叠 加生产率疲软导致单位劳动力成本高企，加剧通胀压力。 （文章来源：新华财经） 澳洲联储明确维持物价稳定与充分就业为首要目标，承认私人需求复苏步伐或慢于预期，但领先指标显 示劳动力市场存超预期韧性可能。声明特别提及货币政策将保持灵活，若国际动态对澳大利亚经济产生 实质影响，将"果断应对"。 新华财经北京7月8日电（崔凯）澳洲联储意外决定将现金利率目标维持在3.85%，未如市场预期降息25 个基点。尽管自2022年峰值以来，通胀已显著下降，并且当前利率较五个月前已下调50个基点，但鉴于 全球经济不确定性高企以及贸易政策对经济活动的潜在负面影响，委员会认为需等待更多信息以确认通 胀可持续回落至2-3%的目标区间。 澳洲联储承诺将密切关注数据变化和风险评估的发展，以指导未来政策决策。值得注意的是，本次会议 决议以6票赞成、3票反对通过，反映了 ...

Group 1 - Current gold prices are experiencing slight fluctuations, trading around $3327.25 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical developments and market sentiment [1] - The upcoming meeting between US President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss a ceasefire in Gaza is expected to ease market tensions, impacting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][3] - The market is closely watching the US Treasury Secretary's indication of a potential extension of tariff deadlines to August 1, which may further alleviate concerns [1] Group 2 - Gold prices are currently in a consolidation phase, with August futures around $3340, indicating a trading range between $3250 and $3476.30 [3] - Retail investor sentiment is bullish, with 59% expecting gold prices to rise, although a lack of new fundamental catalysts may keep prices in a high-level fluctuation [3][4] - Long-term factors such as US debt crisis, a weakening dollar, and inflationary pressures are expected to support gold's attractiveness as a safe-haven and store of value [4] Group 3 - The potential for gold prices to break above $3500 exists if new geopolitical or macroeconomic catalysts emerge, despite current short-term volatility [4] - Investors are advised to monitor trade negotiations, Federal Reserve meeting minutes, and interest rate decisions from Australia and New Zealand for potential investment opportunities in the gold market [4]

土耳其央行：6月份服务业通胀压力增强。 ...

Core Insights - The current tariff policy under the Trump administration imposes a direct cost pressure of up to $82.3 billion on a specific group of U.S. companies, which may lead to price increases, layoffs, hiring freezes, or profit margin compression [1][2][4] - The analysis quantifies the direct impact of tariffs on companies with annual revenues between $10 million and $1 billion, which employ about one-third of the private sector workforce in the U.S. [2] - Retail and wholesale sectors are particularly vulnerable to the impact of import taxes, contradicting the claim that foreign manufacturers would bear the tariff costs [2][4] Financial Implications - If the initial tariffs remain unchanged, the companies involved could face an additional cost of $187.6 billion [4] - The average cost burden of $82.3 billion translates to approximately $2,080 per employee, equating to 3.1% of the average annual salary [4] - Goldman Sachs estimates that companies may pass on 60% of the tariff costs to consumers, while the Atlanta Federal Reserve suggests that under 10% or 25% tariffs, companies might transfer about half of the costs to consumers [4] Market Reactions - The announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy in April led to panic in financial markets, followed by a 90-day negotiation period during which most imported goods faced a 10% baseline tax [4] - Major U.S. companies like Amazon, Costco, and Walmart have temporarily mitigated the impact of tariffs by stockpiling inventory before the implementation [2]