中辉有色观点 | | 11 | 1 1 | | --- | --- | --- | | T | | 8 | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美俄即将会面，中美关税或被再延缓 90 天，特朗普不对黄金加征关税，短期盘面波 | | | 回调做多 | 动剧烈。中长期多国货币政策宽松预期，央行买黄金，黄金与其他资产相关性较低， | | ★★ | | 长期黄金继续战略配置。谨防短期特朗普普京会面对盘面冲击【770-788】 | | 白银 | | 白银跟随黄金大幅波动，中长期美国降息预期和中美欧等国宽松财政刺激等支撑作 | | | 止跌做多 | 用明显，工业需求坚挺，供给端增量有限，白银向上趋势不变。短期白银品种弹性 | | ★★ | | | | | | 较大，短期等止跌试多长期做多。【9100-9300】 | | 铜 | | 美国通胀数据即将公布，市场预期受关税影响通胀回升，美元反弹铜价承压。LME | | | 回调试多 | 铜累库幅度放缓，国内铜社会库存偏紧，精废价差收敛刺激精铜消费，建议回调逢 | | ★★ | | 低试多，中长期依旧看好 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年8月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：黄金不征税消息继续发酵，金价大幅回落；美国三大股指小幅收跌，欧 洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌0.58个基点 报4.281%；美元指数涨0.24%报98.50，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报7.1962；COMEX 黄金期货跌2.80%报3393.7美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注美国CPI、美国7月政府预期、美联储委员密集讲话，国内7月信 贷数据或发布。黄金不征关税消息继续发酵，金价大幅回落。今日美国CPI将公布， 市场已经开始押注滞涨，若CPI上涨，金价仍有 ...

宏观经济周报 2025 年第 33 周 一、中国宏观 高频：本周 ICHI 综合景气指数显示，中国经济恢复势头有所放缓但整体依然稳 健。具体来看，消费景气指数小幅回落至收缩区间，但降幅有限，反映居民消 费信心和市场活力仍处于修复过程。投资景气指数虽较上周略有回落，但仍接 近扩张区间，显示在政策推动下基建和制造业投资继续发挥支撑作用。生产景 气指数小幅下降至接近荣枯线，企业生产活动温和放缓，但供给端韧性仍在。 出口景气指数与上周基本持平，维持在荣枯线附近，表明外需保持稳定但缺乏 明显加速动力。总体来看，ICHI 综合景气指数提示，尽管经济复苏节奏略有放 缓，但在政策支持与内生动能共同作用下，中国经济依然保持平稳运行格局。 2025 年前 7 个月，中国进出口总值同比增长 3.5%，增速较上半年加快 0.6 个百 分点。其中，7 月当月出口与进口同比均加快凸显外贸韧性。从结构上看，高技 术产品进出口增长 8.4%，贡献率达 45.4%；出口"新三样"产品增长 14.9%；机 电产品出口占比近六成，集成电路和汽车出口快速增长，反映出中国出口产品 正加快向高端、绿色转型。从贸易伙伴来看，东盟连续保持中国第一大贸易伙 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent dovish stance has created an environment where gold prices are likely to rise and are difficult to decline [1] - The potential imposition of tariffs on gold bars led to a significant increase in COMEX gold prices, although subsequent clarification from the White House negated this impact [2] - The combination of weakening employment data, dovish Fed policies, and anticipated inflation is expected to support an upward trend in gold prices [2] Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - Previous market concerns regarding copper included the reversal of logistics post-tariff, weakening demand due to the end of solar panel installations, and strong economic data suppressing rate cut expectations [3] - These concerns are gradually being disproven, as U.S. copper prices remain stable and inventory levels have not significantly increased [3] - The upcoming September is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics, with potential downward pressure on copper production due to maintenance and a return to peak demand [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, precious metal prices showed a continuous rebound. Weak US employment and services PMI data supported Fed rate cuts, increasing market expectations for a September rate cut. Trump's unexpected tariff increase and potential Fed chair change added to market uncertainty, boosting investor risk aversion and driving up precious metal prices [4][7]. - On Friday, the COMEX December gold futures contract briefly hit a record high of $3534 before falling back, influenced by news of possible US tariffs on imported gold. The market is focused on the White House's upcoming executive order regarding gold bar import tariffs [4][7]. - The US may impose country - specific import tariffs on widely - traded gold bars, which could severely impact the global gold supply chain. Switzerland, as the world's largest gold refining and transit center, would be significantly affected if the tariff policy is implemented [4]. - The market is currently focused on the Trump administration's stance on gold bar import tariffs in the executive order. Gold price volatility is expected to intensify in the near term, and technically, international gold prices are more likely to face short - term pressure after Friday's pull - back [4][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 787.80 | 17.08 | 2.22 | 220321 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 783.27 | 7.72 | 1.00 | 33164 | 207932 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 3458.20 | 42.20 | 1.24 | | | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 9278 | 360 | 4.04 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 9249 | 250 | 2.78 | 347688 | 3526850 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 38.51 | 1.41 | 3.79 | | | US dollars/ounce | [5] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Market uncertainty increased due to potential Fed rate cuts, tariff hikes, and possible Fed chair change, leading to a rise in precious metal prices last week [4][7]. - The possible US gold import tariffs could disrupt the global gold supply chain, especially affecting Switzerland [4]. - Gold price volatility is expected to intensify, and short - term pressure on international gold prices is more likely [4][11]. - This week, key data to watch include US July CPI, PPI, and retail data, as well as the euro - zone's Q2 GDP quarter - on - quarter revised value. Events to monitor are US tariff policy changes, Fed officials' speeches, and the Russia - US summit [11]. 3. Important Data Information - US service sector expansion slowed in July, with the ISM services PMI at 50.1, lower than the previous month and expectations. The employment index shrank, and the price index reached a new high since October 2022 [12]. - US initial jobless claims increased by 7000 to 226,000 last week, and continued claims rose by 38,000 to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021, suggesting a cooling labor market and strengthening rate - cut expectations [12]. - New York Fed's July survey showed that one - year inflation expectations rose from 3% to 3.1%, three - year inflation expectations remained at 3%, and five - year inflation expectations increased from 2.6% to 2.9%, the highest since February [12]. - The Bank of England cut rates by 25 basis points, but internal differences over inflation risks may signal an approaching end to consecutive rate cuts [12]. - As of the end of July 2025, China's official gold reserves increased by 600,000 ounces to 73.96 million ounces, with continuous increases for nine months [13]. - A US Customs and Border Protection document indicated that 1 - kilogram and 100 - ounce gold bars may be subject to tariffs [13]. 4. Relevant Data Charts - ETF gold total holdings were 959.64 tons on August 8, 2025, up 6.56 tons from the previous week. iShare silver holdings were 14990.80 tons, down 65.87 tons from the previous week [14]. - For gold futures on August 5, 2025, non - commercial long positions were 292194, short positions were 55144, and net long positions were 237050, an increase of 13454 from the previous week. For silver futures, non - commercial long positions were 71234, short positions were 20576, and net long positions were 50658, a decrease of 8749 from the previous week [16].

宏观金银周报 •国内数据喜忧参半，海外降息预期增加，金银走高 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 2025年8月8日 王维芒 资格编号：Z0000148 摘要 【市场海外宏观】本周资本市场受中国反内卷、治理通缩等政策影响，工业品短暂调整过 后，本周继续明显走高。美国通胀预期较高，就业市场离奇疲软，但消费者信心走高。关税 基本落地，扰动边际递减，影响小于4月份结果 【国内经济表现】7月国内PMI数据回落，不过进出口数据表现韧性。房地产市场何时止跌 需要继续关注。后续关注中美关税谈判结果，以及抢出口的连续性。 【金银近期策略】美国降息预期走高，美欧等关税风险影响逐渐消退，短期盘面或强势震 荡。考虑到短期缺乏风险因素集中爆发，黄金大幅冲破前高的概率较低，在此位置不建议短 线追多，等待破区间高点或者向下回调再做短线单子入场打算。中长期多国货币政策宽松预 期，央行买黄金，黄金与其他资产相关性较低，长期黄金继续战略配置，【770-796】。白 银跟随黄金情绪积极，中长期来看，白银基本面受到经济需求支撑，各国宽财政刺激，工业 需求坚挺，长期向上趋势不变。【9100-9360】。 【风险提示】关税 ...

Macro Overview - The article highlights a rebound in inflation expectations in the US, with both 5-year and 10-year inflation expectations rising in August, indicating a marginal improvement in investor confidence [2][3] - Major economic indicators show mixed results: initial jobless claims increased, ISM non-manufacturing PMI declined, and durable goods orders fell month-on-month in June [2] - In Europe, the Eurozone investment confidence index turned negative again, while retail sales showed a year-on-year increase in June, and PPI saw a slight rebound [2] Policy Insights - The US labor market is showing signs of slowing down, creating a dilemma for the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy; the European Central Bank is not expected to cut interest rates in the short term; the Bank of Japan is maintaining its current interest rates but may exit its wait-and-see mode by the end of the year [3] Hong Kong Market Liquidity - The article estimates that the total financing scale for IPOs and refinancing in Hong Kong could reach nearly HKD 300 billion this year, with IPO financing expected to be around HKD 1,500 billion [6] - The peak of stock unlocks in Hong Kong occurred in Q2 2025, with a total unlock amount of HKD 444.8 billion, accounting for 50% of the annual total; the pressure for significant reductions in holdings is limited moving forward [7][8] - The article anticipates that net inflows from southbound trading could exceed HKD 1.2 trillion this year, providing a substantial liquidity source for the Hong Kong market [9]

在美联储理事库格勒意外提前辞职后不到一周，新任理事人选火速出炉。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月7日，美国总统特朗普表示，已选定现任白宫经济顾问委员会主 席斯蒂芬·米兰接替刚刚空出的美联储理事席位，任期至2026年1月31日。特朗普还称，将继续 寻找长期的美联储职位替代者。 米兰曾在特朗普第一任总统任期内担任美国财政部经济政策高级顾问，拥有哈佛大学经济学专 业的博士学位，是"海湖庄园协议"总设计师。 权宜之计 记者丨 吴斌 编辑丨和佳 设定的2%目标。去年9月美联储将利率从5.3%的20年高位下调，米兰认为这提高了高通胀率根 深蒂固的风险。 8月1日，美联储发表声明称，美联储理事库格勒辞去美联储理事的职位，于本月8日正式卸 任。库格勒的理事任期原定于明年1月结束，其提前离职使得特朗普可提前进行新一轮人事任 命。 米兰在美联储理事会的任期只有几个月，特朗普任命米兰为临时理事无疑是"权宜之计"，为后 续提名14年任期的理事甚至下一任美联储主席铺路。 Evercore ISI高级经济学家兼策略师Marco Casiraghi表示， 特朗普选择米兰是权宜之计，给自 己留出了在明年1月之前做出最终决定的时间。这样一来，特 ...

五年期预期创三月来新高，关税阴影成关键变量 短期冲击与长期结构性风险的博弈 通胀预期的升温，恰好撞上美联储货币政策决策的敏感窗口期。尽管上周美联储会议以多数票决定维持 利率不变，延续 "观望" 姿态，但内部对如何应对当前局势的分歧正日益凸显，而关税引发的通胀争议 成为分歧的核心焦点。 美联储理事沃勒的立场相对宽松，他明确表示，可以 "忽视" 关税带来的通胀冲击，因为这类影响本质 上是 "暂时性的"。沃勒在上周会议中曾支持小幅降息 25 个基点，即便最终决议是维持利率不变，他的 态度也反映出部分官员对经济增速放缓的担忧 —— 在他看来，关税推高的物价只是短期扰动，不会改 变通胀长期向目标收敛的趋势，因此无需为这种 "暂时现象" 调整长期利率路径。 与沃勒形成对比的是博斯蒂克的谨慎态度。博斯蒂克虽表示 "仍预计今年会有一次降息"，但同时强 调，关税对供应链的重塑可能带来 "更持久的成本压力"，如果这种压力转化为工资 - 物价螺旋上升，美 联储可能需要重新评估政策立场。这种分歧背后，是对经济基本面判断的差异：沃勒更关注近期就业增 长放缓、消费支出疲态等 "软数据"，认为需要通过降息提振需求；博斯蒂克则更警惕通胀预期 ...

Group 1: UK Monetary Policy and Inflation - The Bank of England (BoE) faced challenges in lowering interest rates due to rising inflation expectations, ultimately deciding to cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.0% on August 7, 2025[3] - The BoE raised its food inflation forecast for Q3 2025 by 1.5 percentage points to 5.0%, expecting it to rise further to 5.5% by the end of 2025[3] - The nominal yield on 10-year UK government bonds increased by 323 basis points from February 1, 2022, to August 6, 2025, indicating a steepening yield curve[4] Group 2: US Tariff Impact and Economic Outlook - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the US is expected to impact global economies, with significant implications for non-US developed economies[5] - Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 0.7 thousand to 226 thousand, suggesting potential upward revisions in future employment data[5] - The US labor market shows signs of cooling, but strong consumer spending and non-residential investment contrast with the weak demand seen in the UK and other non-US developed economies[5] Group 3: Global Economic Trends - The recent tariffs imposed by the US range from 10% to 41%, affecting various trade partners, including China, and potentially leading to a restructuring of global supply chains[6] - The dollar index is expected to rebound after a temporary decline, which may put pressure on the Chinese yuan[6] - The report suggests that the People's Bank of China may consider a small rate cut of 10 basis points to stimulate demand in the real estate market[6]