Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market is closely watching the upcoming two-year government bond auction, which is seen as a critical indicator of investor sentiment amid rising inflation and discussions on potential further tightening by the Bank of Japan [1] Group 1: Auction Context - The auction occurs less than a week after the Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate to a 30-year high, with no clear guidance on future tightening from Governor Kazuo Ueda [1] - The two-year government bond yield reached its highest level since 1996 earlier this week, indicating a market re-evaluation of future policy paths [1] - The 10-year breakeven inflation rate has risen to its highest level since 2004, reflecting sustained increases in medium- to long-term inflation expectations [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Market sentiment is cautious due to concerns over the speed of the central bank's policy response and the upward adjustment of inflation expectations and neutral interest rates [4] - Despite verbal warnings from Japanese authorities regarding exchange rates, the yen's depreciation and rising yields have not fully stabilized the market [4] - Overnight index swaps indicate a possibility of another rate hike by the Bank of Japan before September next year [4] Group 3: Auction Expectations - The upcoming auction may be the first issuance of two-year bonds with yields exceeding 1%, but uncertainty remains due to the recent rate hike and unclear policy outlook [4] - Traders currently price in the next 25 basis point rate hike only by September 2026 [4] - Investors are also focused on the upcoming fiscal year 2026 budget proposal, which is expected to increase the issuance of two-year, five-year, and ten-year bonds while reducing ultra-long bond issuance [4] Group 4: Auction Metrics - The auction results will be announced on Thursday at 12:35 Tokyo time, with key metrics such as bid-to-cover ratio and the "tail" between average and minimum accepted prices being closely monitored [5] - The previous auction in November had a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.53, which will serve as a benchmark for assessing market sentiment [5] - Increased issuance of two-year bonds may lead to a higher risk of short-term paper losses [5]

贵金属早报—— 2025年12月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美元一度跌至近三个月低点，黄金一度涨破4500美元后回落；美国三大 股指五连涨，欧洲交易清淡；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌2.73个基 点报4.136%；美元指数涨0.06%报97.95，离岸人民币对美元升值报7.0076；COMEX黄 金期货收跌0.01%报4505.4美元/盎司；中性 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白银 1、基本面：海外交易清淡，国内贵金属全线推动，叠加白银基金影响，沪银大幅 拉升；美国三大股指五连涨，欧洲交易清淡；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收 益率跌2.73个基点报4.136%；美元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential change in the Federal Reserve's inflation target from a fixed 2% to a flexible range, suggesting this could be a strategic move to ease economic pressures and facilitate lower interest rates [3][5][9]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Inflation Target - Scott Bessenet, a notable figure in economic circles, proposes that the Federal Reserve should consider adjusting its long-standing 2% inflation target to a range of 1.5% to 2.5% or even 1% to 3% [3][5]. - The current core PCE inflation rate remains stubbornly around 2.7% to 2.8%, indicating that maintaining the 2% target is increasingly challenging [5][9]. - Changing the target to a range could allow the Federal Reserve to declare success even with current inflation levels, potentially leading to earlier interest rate cuts [7][9]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The U.S. national debt has reached approximately $36 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, which is more than military spending [7][9]. - Adjusting the inflation target could relieve pressure on the Treasury to manage debt repayments, benefiting various economic sectors, including the stock market and businesses reliant on borrowing [9][11]. - However, this change may negatively impact savers and those holding cash, as a higher inflation target would accelerate the depreciation of money's value [9][12]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Considerations - Analysts on Wall Street recognize the implications of this potential policy shift, understanding it as a precursor to a broader economic policy change [11][12]. - The article raises concerns about the long-term trust in the Federal Reserve's ability to manage inflation if targets are adjusted in response to economic pressures [9][12]. - The discussion highlights a psychological battle regarding expectations, suggesting that if the market reacts favorably, the proposed changes could indeed be implemented [12][14].

有色金属专场-2026 年度策略会 20151223 摘要 特朗普 2.0 政策通过对等关税引发通胀预期和经济滞涨，地缘政治风险 增加避险需求，共同推高黄金价格，并加剧全球经济压力。 2025 年前三季度全球黄金供需增速均为 3%，但结构变化显著：金饰品 需求因高金价下降，央行购金放缓，ETF 投资成为主要支撑。 黄金税收新政区分投资性和非投资性用途，提高首饰税负，导致国内首 饰店报价高于盘面价格，预计将减少四季度及明年一季度首饰消费。 白银市场连续五年供不应求，加上 ETF 增量，预计今年是连续第七年供 不应求，库存流动性不足支撑银价上涨，基本面强劲，与黄金的金融属 性形成对比。 博巴和铂金均供不应求，但博巴供需紧张有所缓解，铂金更为严重。博 巴主要用于传统汽车，铂金更多应用于新能源汽车，铂金需求多元化， 更具向上弹性。 美国中期选举前，政府可能采取宽松货币和财政政策，包括降息、停止 缩表、减税等，以刺激经济，可能推高黄金价格。 美联储货币政策对黄金价格的影响减弱，地缘政治风险、美国国债问题 和美元信用下降等因素使得黄金定价逻辑多元化，预计 2026 年金价运 行区间可能在 3,900 到 4,800 美元 ...

12月24日，长江现货1#白银单日暴涨1050元/千克，均价报17405元/千克；沪银主力合约11：30分早盘 收盘报17401元/千克，涨幅6.84%，最高触及17487元/千克；亚盘时段，国际现货白银在北京时间11： 30分报72.189美元/盎司，涨1.03%，最高位触及72.701美元/盎司，刷新历史纪录！更惊人的是，今年以 来白银累计涨幅达150%，远超黄金的72%，本月更以28%的增速"跑赢"所有贵金属。当黄金还在4500美 元/盎司高位徘徊时，白银已用"疯魔"表现证明：它不再是"黄金的影子"，而是贵金属牛市里最亮的 星。 一、白银"碾压"黄金的三大逻辑：不只是"补涨"那么简单 白银这波暴涨，绝非简单的"跟风黄金"，而是"宏观避险+工业刚需+估值修复" 的三重共振： 1. 通胀与避险"双驱动"：白银成"全能选手" 全球经济不确定性（地缘冲突、能源价格波动）推升避险需求，而通胀预期升温让白银"双重属性"发光 ——既能像黄金一样对冲货币贬值，又能因工业需求（电子、光伏）抵御"纯投机"风险。相比黄金"高 高在上"（4500美元/盎司），白银"价格亲民"（72美元/盎司），成了普通投资者"用更少钱买更多贵 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market continues to show strength, with gold prices surpassing $4500 per ounce, driven by strong economic data and ongoing interest in rate cuts from the U.S. President [2][6]. Economic Data - The U.S. GDP for Q3 grew significantly by 4.3%, marking the fastest growth in two years, primarily due to robust consumer spending [2][6]. - The PCE price index for the U.S. showed a year-on-year quarterly increase of 2.9%, aligning with expectations but higher than the previous value of 2.6%, which may suppress future rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve [2][6]. Market Reactions - Following the strong GDP data, there was a temporary weakening in precious metals, but the market quickly recovered, with gold, silver, and copper all showing strength [2][6]. - The U.S. President has reiterated the desire for the next Federal Reserve Chair to consider rate cuts when the economy and markets are performing well, rather than preemptively acting due to inflation concerns [2][6]. Investment Implications - Given the resilient economic performance and potential for continued monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, alongside fluctuating geopolitical conditions, gold remains a significant asset allocation option [2][6].

近期，国际贵金属市场迎来一轮凌厉涨势，黄金、白银价格持续攀升并刷新历史纪录。与此同时，具备 较强金融属性的铜等有色金属也同步走强。记者了解到，贵金属这一波行情的核心驱动力是宽松的货币 环境带来的流动性。 "美联储主席鲍威尔向市场释放了利多信号，一方面，美联储不仅如市场预期般降息25个基点，更意外 宣布重启量化宽松，每月购买400亿美元短期国债；另一方面，鲍威尔表示，通胀可能受关税影响见 顶，而就业市场风险较大，暗示未来仍有多次降息可能。这一转向彻底打破了此前'预防式降息结束'的 预期，宽松货币环境直接助推贵金属价格走高。"正信期货首席宏观分析师蒲祖林说。 格林大华首席专家王骏认为，2025年伦敦黄金现货价格从年初的2650美元／盎司冲高至12月的4400美元 ／盎司上方，年内涨幅超68%，远超股票、债券、有色金属等其他主流资产，这种价格跃迁深刻体现了 当前全球经济金融格局下，贵金属的商品属性与金融属性的双重强化。 值得关注的是，本轮行情展现出与历史周期不同的显著特点。通常情况下，代表持有黄金机会成本的美 国10年期国债实际利率与金价呈负相关。但当前，实际利率维持在高位平台震荡，而金价却同步飙升。 "值得注意的 ...

智通财经APP获悉，受经济压力和地缘政治紧张局势的双重影响，黄金和白银价格在12月均创下新高。 周二，黄金价格飙升至每盎司4499.94元的历史新高，较去年同期上涨超过71%。然而，白银价格涨幅 更为强劲，年初至今的涨幅超过了黄金价格。周二，白银价格突破70美元大关，较年初上涨约140%， 也创下这种贵金属的历史新高。 专家表示，这可能与这两种金属之间独特的关系有关。Orrell Capital Management 和 OCM Gold Fund 的 副总裁兼投资组合经理 Steven Orrell 表示："从历史数据来看，在贵金属牛市期间，白银价格通常会落 后于黄金，随后出现大幅上涨，就像我们看到的那样。过去五年，白银的表现一直落后于黄金，直到上 个月才出现大幅飙升。考虑到黄金今年的表现堪称历史性，白银与黄金作为贵金属的紧密联系无疑是推 动其价格上涨的重要因素。" 尽管金银价格都在飙升，但白银的表现远超黄金。从金银比(即一盎司黄金的价格与多少盎司白银的价 格相等)来看，两者之间的差距已经大幅缩小。今年4月，该比率为104比1，而如今已降至64比1。 专家认为，白银价格涨幅超过黄金的原因可能有多种。 Orr ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国财政部长贝森特表示，一旦美国能够可持续地将通胀率降回2%水平，政府层 面可以考虑重新评估美联储现行的通胀目标框架，探讨是否应从单一目标转向区间目标。 贝森特在近日采访中表示："当我们回到2%，我认为这一目标已在视野之内，就可以展开讨论：设定一 个区间是否更明智？在重新锚定目标之后，再谈区间才更合适。" 他进一步指出，潜在的调整方案可能包括1.5%—2.5%或1%—3%的通胀区间，并称围绕这一问题"存在 非常充分的讨论空间"。贝森特同时强调，在通胀仍高于目标水平时贸然调整目标，可能会向市场传 递"通胀一旦超标就会不断向上修正"的错误信号，从而损害政策公信力。 美联储在2012年正式、公开确立2%通胀目标，并成为全球多家央行的共同参照。贝森特认为，对"精确 到小数点后一位的确定性"过度执着并不现实，但他也承认，只有在真正实现并维持目标后，才有条件 重新锚定通胀预期。 数据显示，11月美国消费者价格指数同比上涨 2.7%。美联储更为关注的个人消费支出价格指数在截至9 月的12个月内上涨 2.8%。 在谈及民生影响时，贝森特表示，要在未达标的情况下重新锚定通胀预期"非常困难"，并承认高物价已 ...

47位经济学家的预测中值为91.0（预期范围为86.8至96.9）。 11月数据由88.7修正为92.9。 现状指数从126.3降至116.8。 世界大型企业联合会的数据显示，美国12月份消费者信心指数降至89.1，前一个月为92.9。 47位经济学家的预测中值为91.0（预期范围为86.8至96.9）。 预期指数维持在70.7不变。 11月数据由88.7修正为92.9。 通胀预期中值为4.6%，低于前一个月的4.8%。 现状指数从126.3降至116.8。 责任编辑：李桐 预期指数维持在70.7不变。 通胀预期中值为4.6%，低于前一个月的4.8%。 责任编辑：李桐 世界大型企业联合会的数据显示，美国12月份消费者信心指数降至89.1，前一个月为92.9。 ...