Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is expected to maintain its position as the global leader in new stock financing, surpassing the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ [1][3] - The A-share market in mainland China is projected to show steady growth in new stock listings and financing amounts due to supportive regulatory policies and a focus on technology and innovation sectors [1][2] - Deloitte anticipates that the last quarter of the year will see an influx of funds into the Hong Kong market, driven by the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the expected listing of over five large-scale IPOs [1][3] Group 2 - As of September 30, 2025, the mainland A-share market is expected to have 78 new stocks listed, raising 771 billion RMB, marking a 13% increase in the number of new stocks and a 61% increase in financing compared to the previous year [2] - The Hong Kong market is projected to have 66 new stocks listed, raising 1,823 billion HKD, which is a 47% increase in the number of new stocks and a 228% increase in financing compared to the same period last year [2] - Deloitte estimates that over 80 new stocks will be listed in Hong Kong this year, raising between 2,500 billion to 2,800 billion HKD, with a focus on A+H listings and sectors such as healthcare, technology, and consumer goods [3]

周二，现货黄金在亚盘站上3750美元/盎司后，接连上破3760、3770、3780关口，截至17:15报3784美元/盎司，日内上涨近1%。交易员未理会美联储官员在 上周降息后对货币政策前景的谨慎评论。 鲍威尔将于当地时间周二（北京时间周三凌晨00:35）就经济前景发表备受关注的演讲。此前，伴随上周利率决议公布的季度利率预测（即点阵图）显示出 官员观点存在显著分歧。与此同时，多位美联储官员周一重申需要对未来的利率决策采取谨慎态度，其中包括圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆，他表示在物价压 力高企的背景下，进一步降息的空间有限。 与此同时，白银价格连续三日上涨，维持在每盎司44美元附近。这种相对便宜的贵金属可能受到了看涨期权交易的支持，上周五iShares白银信托期权的日交 易量飙升至120万份，为2024年4月以来的最高水平，看涨期权数量大幅增加。 在支持性因素广泛汇聚的背景下，黄金和白银已成为年内表现最佳的主要大宗商品之一。这些因素包括：美联储放松货币政策、各国央行增加储备持有量以 及持续的地缘政治紧张局势维持了对避险资产的需求。高盛集团等大型银行已表示预期金价将进一步上涨。 展望后市，交易员将仔细分析本周即将公布的 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Data - As of September 19, 2025, the closing prices of various assets are provided, including commodities (e.g., coking coal at 1232.00, glass at 1216.00), A-shares (e.g., CSI 500 at 7170.35, SSE 50 at 2909.74), overseas stocks (e.g., Nasdaq at 22631.48, S&P 500 at 6664.36), bonds (e.g., 2-year Chinese Treasury bond yield at 1.48), and foreign exchange (e.g., USD-CNY central parity rate at 7.11) [1] - The weekly changes show that commodities rose by 0.32%, A-shares fell by 0.44%, overseas stocks fell by 1.98%, bonds had various yield changes, and foreign exchange also had corresponding fluctuations [1] 2. Commodity Views Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways movement [3] - Bullish logic: Smooth first - round Sino - US negotiations, policies to boost consumption, increased A - share trading volume, increased margin trading balance, and positive Shanghai real estate policies [3] - Bearish logic: Market already priced in rate - cut expectations, large - financial stocks' decline, regulatory intention to cool the market, approaching National Day holiday, and reduced ETF shares tracking the CSI 300 [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 expect a sideways movement [3] - Bullish logic: Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, central bank's liquidity injection, and long - term fundamental support for the bond market [3] - Bearish logic: Expectations for Q4 growth - stabilizing policies, high risk - appetite, and poor result of 30 - year special Treasury bond issuance [3] Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 2 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways movement [4] - Bullish logic: Potential inflation in the far - term, Russian supply disruption, Asian demand, undervalued price, and Fed's expected rate cuts [4] - Bearish logic: Seasonal decline in European and American demand, OPEC's Q4 production increase, increased US distillate inventory, and US refinery maintenance [4] Agricultural Sector - **Soybean Oil** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways movement [4] - Bullish logic: Lower - than - expected US soybean good - quality rate, biodiesel policy, expected decline in October soybean imports, and Sino - US trade uncertainty [4] - Bearish logic: Argentina's export tax suspension, South American soybean sowing, high domestic inventory, inventory accumulation, and expected high US soybean yield [4] Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 5 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 2 expect a sideways movement [5] - Bullish logic: Fed's rate - cut cycle, improved downstream consumption after price decline, pre - holiday stocking demand, and entry into the traditional peak demand season [5] - Bearish logic: Neutral Fed stance, continuous inventory accumulation, weak peak - season characteristics, and slow inventory depletion [5] Chemical Sector - **Methanol** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways movement [5] - Bullish logic: Iranian plant shutdown, improved MTO profit, reduced port pressure, and macro - policy support [5] - Bearish logic: High coastal inventory, strong supply pressure, and weak pre - holiday stocking demand [5] Precious Metals Sector - **Gold** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 6 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 2 expect a sideways movement [6] - Bullish logic: Strong central bank demand, US stagflation risk, Fed's rate - cut cycle, and increased ETF holdings [6] - Bearish logic: Short - term profit - taking after rate - cut, rebound of the US dollar index and Treasury yields, and potential slowdown of rate - cut [6] Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways movement [6] - Bullish logic: Decreased port inventory, pre - holiday restocking by steel mills, reduced arrivals, and increased molten iron production [6] - Bearish logic: Increased shipments from Australia and Brazil, weak steel demand, increased shipments from non - mainstream countries, and declining steel mill profitability [6]

Core Viewpoint - Global investors are significantly increasing their holdings in gold ETFs, driven by rising international gold prices and favorable market conditions despite recent comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell that tempered expectations for rapid monetary easing [1][3]. Group 1: Gold ETF Demand - Last Friday, global gold ETF holdings saw the fastest increase in three years, with a single-day surge of nearly 27 tons, providing new momentum for gold prices [1]. - According to the World Gold Council (WGC), gold ETF demand from January to June increased by 397 tons, marking the largest demand inflow for the same period since 2020 [4]. - As of the end of June, the total gold held in ETFs reached 3,615.9 tons, the highest since August 2022, approaching the historical peak of 3,915 tons set five years ago [4]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Predictions - Analysts from Montreal Bank Capital Markets noted that despite a brief price pullback following the Fed's rate cut, the continued inflow of ETF funds has created new upward momentum for gold prices [3]. - The current low-interest-rate environment is favorable for gold, a non-yielding asset, and the ongoing geopolitical tensions are supporting safe-haven demand [3]. - Major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, expect further increases in gold prices, indicating a positive outlook for the commodity in the fourth quarter [3]. Group 3: Price Trends and Risks - Spot gold prices reached a new all-time high of $3,759.16 per ounce during Asian trading on Tuesday, reflecting strong demand from investment managers and traders seeking to hedge against risks in U.S. equities [4]. - Analysts from Heraeus Precious Metals noted that gold prices have surged over 10% in the past five weeks, suggesting a potential for price consolidation or slight pullback in the short term due to overbought conditions [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial products and precious metals are recommended for long - position allocation on dips [3] Core Viewpoints - Domestic policy expectations are rising, and the government is trying to implement more proactive macro - policies to cope with the increased external pressure [1] - The inflation outlook in the United States is clearer, with the Fed cutting interest rates and the possibility of further cuts in the future. Different commodity sectors have different trends and investment opportunities [2] - Precious metals are expected to continue to strengthen due to the trends of de - dollarization and the interest - rate cut cycle [2][5] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - In August, China's economic data showed signs of weakness, with features like "slow industry, weak investment, and dull consumption". External tariff pressure increased, and the government proposed stable - growth policies. The central bank maintained LPR and conducted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. There were also positive developments in Sino - US economic and trade relations [1] - The US 8 - month ISM manufacturing index has been shrinking for six consecutive months, with improved new orders and a falling price index. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and there are expectations of further cuts. The US Senate rejected short - term spending bills, and there is a risk of a government shutdown. The US promised to support Argentina, causing a sharp rise in Argentine dollar - denominated bonds [2] Commodity Sector Analysis - The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors; precious metals and agricultural products are related to overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is restricted by downstream demand, the non - ferrous sector has long - term supply constraints, the energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term, the "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector is worthy of attention, and agricultural products are affected by tariffs and inflation expectations [2] - Precious metals, especially gold, are expected to continue to strengthen despite the "sell - the - fact" situation after the Fed's interest - rate cut. On September 22, spot gold reached a new high of $3720 per ounce, up nearly 8% this month [2][5][6] Strategy - Recommend long - position allocation of industrial products and precious metals on dips in the commodity and stock index futures markets [3]

Summary of Conference Call for Western Gold Industry Overview - The gold market is expected to experience multiple rebound opportunities despite a sideways trend in gold prices from June 2024 to September 2025, particularly after significant events such as Trump's election victory and tariff announcements in April 2025 [2][3] - The investment focus for 2025 will be on major changes within companies, such as the performance growth post-restructuring of Shengda Resources and the successful integration of Tongguan Gold's mining rights [2] Company-Specific Insights Western Gold - Western Gold's production guidance for 2025 is set at 1.9 tons, with projections of 4.6 tons in 2026 and 6.8-7 tons in 2027, indicating a significant increase in output [4][9] - The company has completed the integration of the Mikin mine and is advancing the resumption of operations at the Ili mine, with a technical upgrade expected to add 0.5 tons of production [2][6] - The Xinjiang Meisheng Katabas gold-copper mine is expected to contribute profits with an estimated annual production capacity of 2.5-2.6 tons at an 80% utilization rate [2][6] - A notable transaction involved the injection of 3.3 tons of production and 78-79 tons of resources into the listed company for 1.7 billion yuan, showcasing the group's willingness to support the company [2][6] Financial Performance - The anticipated profit for 2026 is over 1.5 billion yuan, with projections exceeding 2.5 billion yuan for 2027, based on current gold prices [4][9] - The cost control measures are stable, maintaining a cost range of 200-300 yuan per gram, which is competitive within the industry [10] Market Dynamics - The gold market's trading logic for 2025 revolves around identifying key buying points, particularly during periods of price consolidation before upward breaks [3] - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains strong due to factors such as de-globalization, unsustainable U.S. debt, and a potential interest rate cut cycle [12] Other Important Considerations - The manganese segment is in trial production, with a production target of 450,000 tons in 2025 to meet downstream demand [11] - Investors are advised to stay informed about industry dynamics and adjust strategies accordingly to capitalize on potential profit opportunities [13]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the precious metals and base metals industries, focusing on gold, aluminum, copper, cobalt, and rare earth elements [1][2][4][8]. Core Insights and Arguments Precious Metals (Gold) - Central bank gold purchases have become a major factor influencing gold prices, offsetting the net outflow from institutional investors during the interest rate hike cycle, leading to an increase in gold prices [1][2]. - Gold prices typically reach a peak around the second interest rate cut, with a sustained upward trend from the market's expectation of rate cuts to the confirmation of their frequency and magnitude [2][3]. - After the first rate cut, there may be a price adjustment, but there is potential for another price surge [2][3]. - In a soft landing scenario, gold prices are expected to fluctuate after peaking around the second rate cut, while in the event of systemic economic risks, gold may experience a significant pullback but will recover the fastest [3]. Base Metals (Aluminum and Copper) - China's aluminum production capacity is nearing its peak, leading to strong supply constraints, with limited supply growth expected [1][8]. - Recent disturbances in major copper mines have altered the supply landscape, resulting in limited price adjustments despite declining demand, reminiscent of the situation in 1984 [8][9]. - The anticipated price peaks for copper and aluminum are around $10,000/ton and $21,000/ton, respectively, with expected pullbacks being limited to within 5% due to supply constraints [9][10]. Cobalt and Rare Earth Elements - The potential extension of the Democratic Republic of Congo's cobalt export ban could lead to a tightening of global cobalt inventories, significantly increasing cobalt prices [4][11]. - The rare earth market remains stable, with increasing demand driven by high-tech industries and green energy transitions, suggesting a positive investment outlook for companies in this sector [4][12]. Additional Important Insights - The overall economic environment is expected to influence metal prices, with a focus on liquidity and inflation trends. If no technological revolution occurs, gold prices may fluctuate upwards due to increased liquidity and inflation [5]. - Investors are encouraged to seek individual stocks with strong growth potential, particularly those with clear mineral increment plans leading up to 2030 [5]. - The steel industry faces challenges due to declining domestic demand and increased export pressures, but there are opportunities for top companies to improve pricing and profit margins through supply-side optimization [13]. This summary encapsulates the key points and insights from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations of the metals industry.

Monetary Policy - The central bank emphasizes a supportive monetary policy stance, implementing moderate easing without immediate adjustments to short-term policies [1] - As of the end of August, various long-term funds held approximately 21.4 trillion yuan in A-share market, reflecting a 32% increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [1] - The LPR remained unchanged in September, while the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts have influenced market risk appetite positively [1] Key Commodities Oil - Oil prices are under pressure due to recent weather impacts in Malaysia, with palm oil production expected to decrease by 8.05% for the period of September 1-15, 2025 [2][27] - Exports of Malaysian palm oil are projected to decline by 24.7% during the same period, contributing to the bearish sentiment in the oil sector [2][27] Gold - Following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, gold prices have rebounded, reaching new highs [3][18] - Strong retail sales data from the U.S. and ongoing expectations for further rate cuts have sustained bullish sentiment in the gold market [3][18] Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices have risen, with significant trading volumes, indicating a phase of consolidation after prolonged gains [4][10] - The financing balance decreased by 4.15 billion yuan to 23.816 trillion yuan, reflecting a divergence in market sentiment [4][10] Domestic News - The implementation of the "9.24" policy package has strengthened the foundation for stability in China's capital markets, with significant increases in trading volumes and new account openings [6] - As of September 18, the financing and securities balance reached 24.024 trillion yuan, with daily trading volumes in the A-share market exceeding 3 trillion yuan multiple times this year [6] Industry News - The State Council is prioritizing the establishment of national standards for pre-prepared dishes, aiming to enhance consumer rights and choices [8] Shipping Index - The European shipping index has shown fluctuations, with current freight rates declining significantly, indicating a competitive pricing environment among shipping companies [30]

Group 1: Inflation and Interest Rates in Asia - India's inflation rate rose to 2.07% in August, marking the first increase in 10 months, slightly above the Reserve Bank of India's target range lower limit of 2% to 6% [1][3] - Several Asian central banks, including those in South Korea and India, are expected to continue lowering interest rates in the fourth quarter, with concerns about domestic inflation and the impact of U.S. tariffs persisting [2][3] - The recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have narrowed the yield gap between U.S. and Asian bonds, providing more room for Asian economies to ease monetary policy [2][4] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Responses - Analysts suggest that the easing of monetary policy in Asia may be more prolonged than in the U.S., driven by resilient growth data and low inflation in the region [4] - The Australian Reserve Bank has lowered rates to a two-year low, while the Indian central bank has made significant cuts to support domestic growth amid external pressures [2][3] - The economic growth in export-dependent economies like South Korea and Singapore has been modest, while India has shown strong growth driven by domestic demand [3] Group 3: Japan's Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates before January next year, with a market probability of approximately 58% for a rate hike by the end of the year [5][6] - Despite political uncertainties following the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the Bank of Japan officials believe they can proceed with a rate hike if economic conditions align with expectations [5][6] - Concerns remain regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs on Japanese corporate profits, which have already seen a decline of 11.5% in the second quarter [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, acknowledging economic slowdown, job growth deceleration, a slight increase in unemployment, and persistent high inflation [1] - Precious metals are performing strongly due to the interest rate cut and risk aversion sentiment, with gold prices expected to continue a bullish trend in the early stages of the rate cut cycle [1] - The U.S. August non-farm payroll data and unemployment rate indicate a weakening job market, raising concerns about potential economic recession [1] Group 2 - Gold mining stocks are experiencing significant gains, with Lingbao Gold up 4.74%, Zhaojin Mining up 4.5%, and China Silver Group up 4% [2] - The overall market sentiment is positive for gold-related companies, reflecting the impact of the recent economic data and interest rate expectations [2]