Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by geopolitical tensions, trade negotiations, and changes in U.S. monetary policy, leading to a mixed outlook for gold prices and related investment vehicles [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 1, the gold ETF fund (159937) rose by 0.47% with a transaction volume of 238 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.85% [1]. - International spot gold prices have rebounded above $3,300 per ounce, with the latest quote at $3,314.68 per ounce, marking a 0.38% increase [2]. - COMEX gold futures are quoted at $3,327 per ounce, reflecting a 0.59% increase [2]. Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Influences - The gold market has been under pressure due to easing geopolitical conflicts and rising U.S. stock markets, which have increased risk appetite among investors [3]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that trade agreements with multiple countries are expected to be completed by September 1, which may influence market sentiment [3]. - Speculation about the potential appointment of a more dovish Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump could impact monetary policy and, consequently, gold prices [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Outlook - Analysts suggest a mixed to bullish long-term outlook for gold, despite short-term technical weaknesses and market adjustments [5]. - The gold ETF fund (159937) and its linked funds offer low-cost, diversified investment opportunities in gold, aligning closely with domestic gold prices [5]. - The long-term value of gold as a hedge against economic downturns and inflation remains significant, with recommendations for investors to consider regular investments in gold ETFs [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global risk preference continues to rise due to the weakening US dollar index, with expectations of Fed rate - cuts and positive developments in trade agreements. In China, economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies are boosting domestic risk preference. Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may remain high and oscillatory, and various commodity sectors have their own specific trends [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, Trump urges the Fed to ease monetary policy, and Fed official Bostic expects rate cuts. The US dollar index falls, and global risk preference rises. Domestically, China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, and consumption - stimulating policies are introduced. Stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may be high and oscillatory, and different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. Stock Index - Supported by sectors like military, gaming, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rises. China's economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies boost domestic risk preference. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by a weak US dollar but is under downward pressure due to a weakening of the market's risk - aversion sentiment. The US economic data is weak, and Powell's dovish stance supports the gold price. In the short - term, gold may be oscillatory and weak, but its safe - haven property remains strong [4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel spot market rebounds, but the futures price rises and then falls. Policy is favorable, but traders face poor sales, and the cost support weakens. Supply remains high, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is stable. Demand remains resilient as steel mills' profits are high and iron - water production is expected to stay high. Supply may fall after the peak shipping season. Iron ore prices may oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are flat. Demand is okay as steel production rises. The prices of these ferroalloys are expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. Chemicals Soda Ash - The soda ash price is weak. Supply is abundant, demand is low, and profits are decreasing. In the long - term, the high - supply, high - inventory, and low - demand situation persists, and short positions can be held [7]. Glass - The glass price is weak. Supply is stable, demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. It is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Trump's tariff hints and high production, potential weakening demand, and inventory slowdown are factors. The price may fall when certain conditions are met. Attention should be paid to US trade negotiations and potential copper tariffs [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate falls. Downstream demand slows, but the supply side shows some changes. The market is in a loose situation, and opportunities may come after a rebound [9]. Aluminum - The LME inventory increases, and domestic aluminum products are accumulating inventory. The de - stocking inflection point has arrived, and the price may be affected [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It is in the off - season, but tight scrap - aluminum supply supports the price. It may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside will be restricted in the medium - term [9]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Oil prices fall due to speculation of OPEC+ production increase and the easing of Middle - East supply concerns. It will continue to be weakly oscillatory [11]. Asphalt - The asphalt price is strongly oscillatory as oil prices are low. Inventory is being depleted, and it will follow the oil price in the short - term [11]. PX - PX has strong cost support but faces uncertainties from falling oil prices. It will follow the oil price and oscillate strongly [11]. PTA - The demand for PTA may remain low in the long - term. The price's upside is limited [12]. Ethylene Glycol - The price center falls with oil prices, and the downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate [12]. Short - fiber - Short - fiber inventory is high, and the price will decline as the cost falls. It will follow the cost and oscillate weakly [12]. Methanol - The methanol price is supported by maintenance and low imports but is suppressed by factors like high inventory and poor downstream profits. It will oscillate strongly [12]. PP - The PP price is expected to oscillate weakly due to high production, low demand, and geopolitical support [12]. LLDPE - The LLDPE price will oscillate weakly as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The US 2025 soybean planting area estimate is lower than expected, with different trends for different contract months [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the market sentiment is weak. The weak basis situation is expected to continue, but stable US soybean prices provide some support [16]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The supply of soybean oil is abundant, and inventory is recovering seasonally. The supply of rapeseed oil is improving. Both may be under pressure [17]. Palm Oil - The domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and it is expected to continue to weaken due to factors like the end of policy benefits and a slowdown in exports [18]. Corn - The corn spot price is strong, but the futures price is weak. After the wheat substitution season, the corn price is likely to rise [18]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs rebounds as group - farms reduce出栏. The demand is weak, but the price has some resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [19].

偃旗息鼓:全球风险偏好反弹上行 -- 大类资产配置周度点评(20250630) 王子翌(分析师) 02 -386 /6666 本报告导读: 我们调整此前的战术性大类资产配置观点。我们维持对 A 股的战术性标配观点,维 持对国债的战术性标配观点,下修黄金的战术性配置观点至标配,维持对美元的战 术性低配观点。 投资要点: ne Hill - S 黨略 经济修复节奏以及市场对经济景气的预期相对企稳,权益市场表现 较好在一定程度上限制了债市的相对吸引力。此外,资金利率的不 确定性以及市场对央行操作的高度博弈亦限制了利率的下行动能。 参研究报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策略研究 / 2025.06.30 登记编与 □ 我们维持对 A 股的战术性标配观点。投资者对于政策的不确定性消 除提振市场风险偏好中枢,无风险利率的下行有利于A股表现。定 价资金"以我为主",而对复杂多变的外部宏观背景逐渐钝化。总量 政策层面,财政积极发力、货币政策维持宽松;产业层面,中国科 技的突破有利于企业增加信心并增加资本开支。近期市场对 A 股定 价因子的预期亦相对稳定。 我们维持对国债的战术性标配观点。在融资需求与信贷供给不平衡 D ...

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market experienced a significant return of risk appetite during the week of June 20 to 27, 2025, driven by the easing of geopolitical tensions and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Geopolitical Factors - The notable easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, alleviated concerns about escalating conflicts, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices from nearly $80 to $66, marking the largest weekly drop since March 2023 [1]. - The reduction in geopolitical risk premium also diminished the appeal of traditional safe-haven assets like gold, which saw a consecutive decline for two weeks [1]. Monetary Policy Signals - The Federal Reserve's dovish signals, particularly from Vice Chair Bowman, who unexpectedly supported the possibility of rate cuts in the summer, indicated a shift in the Fed's internal assessment of inflation and economic outlook [3]. - Market expectations for rate cuts in 2025 have risen to 2-3 times, with an increased probability of a cut in July, leading to a significant decline in U.S. Treasury yields [3]. Market Performance - Global stock markets experienced a broad rally, with major U.S. indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones reaching historical highs, reflecting restored market confidence and a shift towards growth-oriented assets [4]. - Technology stocks, sensitive to interest rate changes, benefited significantly from the rising rate cut expectations [4]. Regional Market Trends - Asian markets, particularly Japan, showed strong performance, reflecting improved global risk sentiment and optimism regarding trade prospects [5]. - The cryptocurrency market also thrived, with Bitcoin surpassing $107,000, indicating strong institutional interest in crypto assets [5]. Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index experienced its worst week in years, dropping to a three-year low due to reduced demand for the dollar as a safe-haven currency and narrowing interest rate differentials [6][7]. - Other major currencies, such as the euro and British pound, strengthened against the dollar, reflecting improved economic outlooks [7]. Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market showed clear differentiation, with oil and gold prices declining due to reduced geopolitical risk and safe-haven demand, while industrial metals like copper rose nearly 6% to a two-month high [8]. - The performance of different commodities was influenced by unique fundamental factors, despite an overall improvement in risk appetite [8]. Upcoming Economic Indicators - The upcoming week is expected to bring significant economic data releases, including global PMI, CPI, and U.S. non-farm payroll reports, which will provide insights into global economic health and inflation pressures [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment continues to warm up, with risk assets showing a preference. The domestic economy remains stable, presenting mainly structural opportunities for domestic assets, and the policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while the weak US dollar pattern will continue in the long run. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation to resources such as gold [6]. - The overseas stagflation trading cools down, and the ideas of long - short allocation diverge. In the financial sector, the bullish sentiment for stocks and bonds has declined. For precious metals, risk appetite has recovered, leading to a short - term adjustment. Shipping sentiment has declined, and the duration of the increase in the loading rate in June should be monitored. In the black building materials sector, the performance of furnace materials is better than that of finished products. The low inventory reality and weak demand expectations in the non - ferrous and new materials sector lead to continued oscillations. In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil remains stable, and the positive basis of chemicals provides some support. In the agricultural sector, the substantial progress of Sino - US negotiations is beneficial for the market [7][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US consumer sentiment has improved, and the economic fundamentals are recovering. However, due to tariff policies, consumers remain cautious about the future. This week, the long - term inflation expectation has stabilized, the short - term inflation expectation has risen, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The domestic fundamentals have changed little this week, with both internal and external demand showing some resilience. The real estate market is in the off - season, and the infrastructure physical workload has decreased seasonally. At the local level, the issuance of special bonds has increased at the end of the month, and the remaining trade - in funds from the central government will be issued in July to support consumption [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, and overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations. In the long run, the weak US dollar pattern will continue, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation to resources such as gold [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the implementation of established fiscal policies in the short term. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Funds are releasing congestion, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Stock index options: Sellers need to wait for the inflection point of the decline in volatility, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Treasury bond futures: The bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold and silver: With the recovery of risk appetite, precious metals are in a short - term adjustment, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Coke: Pessimistic sentiment fades, and the price remains stable, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Coking coal: Transaction conditions improve, but confidence is still insufficient, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Other varieties: Most varieties are in a state of oscillation, while soda ash is expected to oscillate downward [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous and New Materials - Most non - ferrous metals are in a state of oscillation, while zinc is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities, and nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate downward [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The rebound is limited, with a short - term judgment of oscillation and decline. - LPG: Weak oscillation due to geopolitical easing. - Other varieties: Different varieties have different short - term judgments, such as oscillation, oscillation and rise, or oscillation and decline [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Most agricultural products are in a state of oscillation, with different influencing factors and short - term trends [9].

廖市无双：本轮上涨的空间、时间几何？20260629 摘要 地缘政治事件初期虽引发市场担忧，但随后市场认识到实际影响有限， 风险偏好反而提升，券商板块领涨，带动市场情绪，与传统利好驱动上 涨的逻辑不同。 本轮上涨中，券商板块带动作用显著，成长指数表现强劲，呈现"金融 搭台，科技唱戏"格局，资金从红利风格转向高贝塔行业，市场风险偏 好提升。 自 2023 年 10 月以来，市场经历 ABC 调整浪，目前处于 X 浪反弹阶段， 潜在目标区间为 3,509 点至 3,550 点，预计本轮上涨行情至少可持续至 2025 年 7 月 11 日。 券商板块反弹空间仍存，预计最高可看至 876 点左右，但并非牛市启动， 而是大幅下跌后的三浪结构反弹，高度将决定大盘高度。 银行板块短期面临调整压力，但中长期上涨趋势未变，受益于市场缺乏 高景气赛道、保险资金配置需求、公募基金新规调整及良好的资本运作 循环。 2025 年 7 月市场风格预计略偏中小盘，成长与价值风格均有机会，金 融、成长、消费板块预计表现靠前，稳定与周期板块可能略显靠后。 2025 年 7 月重点推荐非银、传媒、电子、银行、通信、化工、计算机、 有色、军工、电 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has stated that there will be no interest rate cuts until economic data becomes clearer, suggesting a potential policy adjustment window in September [2][11] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with traders anticipating three rate cuts in 2025, following Powell's hints and dovish signals from other Fed officials [2][11] - Global markets reacted positively to the rising expectations of rate cuts, with major indices such as Nikkei rising by 4.55%, Nasdaq by 4.25%, and Hang Seng by 3.2% [2][11] Group 2 - The report suggests that the A-share market is experiencing a recovery in risk appetite, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.91% and breaking the long-held resistance at 3400 points [3][12] - Short-term risks are identified, including the potential signing of the "Beautiful America Act" by Trump before July 4, 2025, and the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" if trade agreements are not reached by July 9 [3][12] - The report believes that the impact of the "Beautiful America Act" will be less than expected, and the market has already priced in the worst-case scenarios regarding tariffs [3][12][13] Group 3 - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the technology and financial sectors, recommending investments in artificial intelligence, military, semiconductors, and financial technology [5][14] - The focus on the technology sector includes areas such as autonomous driving, innovative pharmaceuticals, solid-state batteries, robotics, commercial aerospace, and nuclear fusion [5][14] - The report also highlights the importance of the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly copper and aluminum [5][14]

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 李卓雅 从业资格证号：F03144512 投资咨询证号：Z0022217 电话：021-68757827 邮箱：lizy@qh168.com.cn 彭亚勇 从业资格证号：F03 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is influenced by factors such as the US fiscal and monetary policy expectations, geopolitical situations, and supply - demand relationships in different metal industries. Some metals may see price increases due to supply shortages and low inventory levels, while others are limited by weak consumption or over - supply expectations [2][4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Performance**: LME copper rose 1.74% to $9,896/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79,790 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 400 to 93,075 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 24,000 tons. - **Market Outlook**: Loose US fiscal and monetary policies boost risk appetite. Tight raw material market and low inventory may support price increases, but weakening domestic consumption limits the upside. The price may fluctuate upwards. Pay attention to import losses for potential futures structure changes. The operating range for SHFE copper is 78,800 - 80,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M it is 9,700 - 10,000 dollars/ton [2]. Aluminum - **Price Performance**: LME aluminum rose 0.72% to $2,585/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,660 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: SHFE aluminum weighted contract open interest increased by 10,000 to 661,000 lots, and warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 43,000 tons. - **Market Outlook**: With the rebound of crude oil prices, the non - ferrous metals atmosphere is positive. Low inventory levels and improved demand expectations may push prices up, but the off - season and price increases limit the upside. The operating range for SHFE aluminum is 20,400 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M it is 2,540 - 2,620 dollars/ton [4]. Lead - **Price Performance**: SHFE lead index rose 0.23% to 17,221 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2,046.5/ton. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 50,300 tons. - **Market Outlook**: Although the export growth of lead - acid batteries has declined, the high concentration of long - positions in the July LME lead contract and the slow strengthening of the Cash - 3S structure support prices. However, weak domestic consumption restricts the increase of SHFE lead [5]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.84% to 22,202 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2,729.5/ton. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 79,500 tons. - **Market Outlook**: Zinc mines are being converted into zinc ingots, with high expectations of zinc ingot production. Geopolitical disturbances may affect Iranian zinc ore exports, leading to large price fluctuations [7]. Tin - **Price Performance**: On June 26, 2025, SHFE tin rose 1.57% to 267,260 yuan/ton. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply is tight due to slow复产 in Myanmar and transportation issues. Demand is weak in the off - season. - **Market Outlook**: The market is in a stalemate. The price is expected to fluctuate between 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton in the domestic market and 31,000 - 35,000 dollars/ton in the LME market [8]. Nickel - **Price Performance**: Nickel prices rebounded with reduced positions. - **Supply - Demand**: Nickel ore prices may decline, nickel iron prices are under pressure, and the supply of intermediate products may improve. - **Market Outlook**: The oversupply of refined nickel remains, and inventory may increase again. Cost support is weakening. The operating range for SHFE nickel is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M it is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Performance**: The MMLC index rose 0.83% to 60,477 yuan. - **Supply - Demand**: Production increased by 1.7% to 18,767 tons, and inventory increased by 1,936 tons to 136,837 tons. - **Market Outlook**: High production and inventory put pressure on prices, but the positive commodity atmosphere may lead to price fluctuations. The reference range for the LC2509 contract is 60,500 - 62,100 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - **Price Performance**: The alumina index rose 0.96% to 2,937 yuan/ton. - **Supply - Demand**: Spot prices in some regions decreased, and the import window is closed. - **Market Outlook**: The over - capacity situation remains. Prices are expected to be anchored by costs and fluctuate weakly. The reference range for the AO2509 contract is 2,750 - 3,100 yuan/ton [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: The stainless - steel contract closed at 12,635 yuan/ton, up 0.76%. - **Supply - Demand**: Social inventory decreased, and steel mills plan to cut production. - **Market Outlook**: The supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease, but the over - supply and weak demand situation persists. Prices are expected to remain weak and fluctuate [17].

Core Viewpoint - UBS warns that the current rally in the U.S. stock market has gone too far, suggesting investors consider reducing their positions as true risk appetite continues to decline despite surface market strength [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - UBS's proprietary "4M Midday Recovery Score," which measures investor risk appetite, has been declining and turned neutral on June 1, dropping to 9% by June 19 [3][5]. - Historical data indicates that during similar short squeeze scenarios, the S&P 500 index has averaged an 11% decline over three months, while the Nasdaq index has seen a 13% drop [2][8]. Group 2: Fund Flow Dynamics - Recent fund flow signals reinforce UBS's bearish outlook, with retail investors showing net selling in 4 out of the last 5 trading days, and foreign investors also net selling through U.S. listed ETFs [10]. - UBS anticipates a significant sell-off of up to $56 billion in global equities due to pension and target-date fund rebalancing, with $31 billion targeting international stocks and $25 billion for U.S. stocks [12]. - Corporate buybacks, a crucial support factor, are expected to weaken significantly, with weekly buyback amounts projected to drop to $30 billion and further down to $15-20 billion before early August [12]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Risks - UBS highlights the heightened risk for large-cap tech stocks, noting that short positions in Nasdaq 100 components are at a one-year low, and the put/call ratio for QQQ is at a five-year low [14]. - The report emphasizes that this configuration is dangerous, especially as the short squeeze has progressed too far, leading to insufficient hedging for large-cap tech stocks [17].