据外媒报道，Jim Wyckoff最新分析指出，美国股指隔夜触及三个月高点，限制了对避险金属的购买兴 趣，周四，黄金价格先跌后涨，重回3300美元上方，日内一度跌至3245美元/盎司。 现货黄金最新报3312.69美元/盎司，涨幅0.79%；COMEX黄金期货8月合约最新报3325.90美元，上涨 3.50美元；COMEX白银期货7月合约最新报33.475美元，上涨0.315美元，交易者和投资者的风险偏好本 周后期表现积极。 美国劳工部周四数据显示，美国当周初请人数录得24万，高于预期的23万。这表明随着劳动力市场环境 持续宽松，5月失业率或已上升。经济学家预计，受季节性波动数据调整难度影响，6月初请人数可能突 破今年20.5万至24.3万的区间，但这一趋势与近年相似，未必反映劳动力市场状况的实质性转变。 美联储今晨的会议纪要显示，尽管决策者认为劳动力市场总体平衡，但"评估认为未来几个月劳动力市 场存在走弱风险"，并指出就业前景"存在相当大的不确定性"，其结果"在很大程度上取决于贸易政策及 其他政府政策的演变"。关注美联储官员接下来的讲话。 市场正在权衡美国一家联邦法院阻止美国总统特朗普的"解放日"关税生效这 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On May 28th, the four major A-share stock indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.02% to 3339.93 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.26% to 10003.27 points, the ChiNext Index decreased 0.31% to 1985.38 points, and the STAR 50 Index slipped 0.23% to 970.64 points. Market trading volume was 1.0339 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.8 billion yuan from the previous day. In the industry sectors, textile and apparel (+1.17%), environmental protection (+0.89%), and coal (+0.74%) led the gains, while basic chemicals (-0.79%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-0.78%), and national defense and military industry (-0.72%) led the losses. In terms of market strength, IF > IH > IC > IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,750/181/3,477 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net capital inflows of -5.8 billion, -12.8 billion, 2.1 billion, and 16.5 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -2.9 billion, -1 billion, +2.5 billion, and +1.4 billion yuan respectively [2]. - On May 28th, most yields of treasury bond futures declined. Among the actively traded contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.376, unchanged from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.497, also unchanged; the ten - year bond was 1.618, down 0.7 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 1.985, down 0.1 bps [3]. 2. Core Views - For stock index futures, it is speculated that the deep discount of small - cap stock indices recently is due to the expansion of neutral product scale since this year. As the bond bull market has not restarted, the proportion of short positions in neutral products may still be high, so the deep discount may continue. It is recommended to go long on the economy, and it is advisable to allocate IF, IC, IM forward contracts on dips. For near - month contracts, there is a risk of a decline in micro - cap stocks, which may drag down the IC and IM indices, so caution is advised [2]. - For treasury bond futures, although the current spot bonds show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, this pattern is expected to change in the future. The government bond net supply rhythm may slow down in June, the long - term liability cost of insurance may be lowered in July, and the domestic market risk preference has returned to a defensive style, which may increase the demand for bond market allocation. It is recommended to go long in the short - term and short in the long - term, buy T and TL contracts on dips in the short - term, and hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the long - term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - The table shows the performance of stock index futures and spot markets, including details such as code, name, price changes, trading volume, open interest, and basis. For example, for IC2506, the price change was -0.26%, the current price was 5568.0 points, and the basis was 69.2 points [5]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - The table presents the performance of treasury bond futures and spot markets, including code, name, price changes, trading volume, net basis, and CTD bond implied interest rates. For instance, for TS2506, the price change was -0.01%, the current price was 102.2 points, and the net basis was 0.0 [6]. 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that this month, the prosperity of imports and exports and social activities has declined, while the real estate market has improved [10].

美国关税，迎来重大变数！ 据最新消息，美国联邦法院阻止了美国总统特朗普在4月2日"解放日"宣布的关税政策生效，并裁定特朗普越 权，对向美国出口多于进口的国家征收全面关税。据悉，特朗普政府在这项裁决发布的几分钟后提交了上诉通 知。 受上述消息影响，富时中国3倍做多ETF盘后涨近6%，美股三大股指大幅拉升，纳指期货涨超2%，道指期货、 标普500指数期货涨超1%。日韩股市也纷纷大涨，日经225指数涨超1.5%，韩国KOSPI指数涨超1%。 美联邦法院阻止特朗普4月2日关税政策生效 据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月28日，美国联邦法院阻止了特朗普在4月2日"解放日"宣布的关税政策生效，并 裁定特朗普越权，对向美国出口多于进口的国家征收全面关税。 位于纽约曼哈顿的国际贸易法院表示，美国宪法赋予美国国会独家权力来规范与其他国家的贸易，而总统声称 为保护美国经济而行使的紧急权力并不凌驾于这些权力之上。 该诉讼由美国非营利、无党派诉讼机构自由正义中心代表五家受关税影响的美国小企业提起，这是对特朗普关 税政策的首次重大法律挑战。 据悉，特朗普政府在这项裁决发布的几分钟后提交了上诉通知。 白宫发言人库什·德赛严厉谴责了这项裁决并 ...

分[析Ta师ble_Report] 行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：f ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the EU plans to accelerate tariff negotiations with the US after the US threatens to impose tariffs on the EU, reducing global risk aversion. The US dollar index rebounds in the short - term, and global risk appetite rises. Domestically, although domestic demand in April slowed down and was lower than expected, industrial production and exports far exceeded expectations, and the economic growth remained stable. The central bank's interest - rate cut and the reduced risk of tariff escalation between the US and the EU help boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index oscillates in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, black metals oscillate at a low level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as biomedicine, automobiles, and banks, the domestic stock market continued to decline slightly. The short - term risk appetite may be boosted, but there is no obvious macro - drive for trading currently. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [2][3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and trade policy disturbances increase, and the short - term support for gold is strengthened. In the long - term, the uncertainty of the US economy and the marginal weakening of US debt credit will support the upward movement of the valuation center of precious metals [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market is in a dilemma, with weakening real demand and increasing supply. It is advisable to treat the short - term steel market with an interval - oscillation mindset [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The price decline of iron ore has widened. Although the iron - water output has decreased, there are differences in the market's view of its decline path. The supply may increase in the second quarter, and it is advisable to take a bearish view in the short term [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron have decreased. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the downstream procurement sentiment is not good. The market will oscillate in the short term [6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump delays imposing a 50% tariff on the EU, boosting market sentiment. The short - term oil price may fluctuate significantly due to event - based factors and macro - impacts [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price oscillates weakly following crude oil. The demand is average, and the inventory de - stocking has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [8]. - **PX**: The polyester sector has corrected, and PX has declined slightly. It maintains a strong oscillation in the short term but may decline slightly later [8]. - **PTA**: The downstream start - up rate has decreased, and PTA is affected by negative feedback from the downstream. The de - stocking rate will slow down, and the upward space is limited [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The de - stocking is mainly due to the decrease in start - up, and the price will oscillate [10]. - **Short - fiber**: It maintains a high - level and weak - oscillation pattern and will continue to oscillate in the short term [11]. - **Methanol**: The price in the Taicang market has declined, and the basis has strengthened. The price will likely remain stagnant in the short term but may decline in the long - term [11]. - **PP**: The domestic PP market has declined. The downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the price is expected to decline under pressure [12]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price has decreased. The short - term demand has been slightly repaired, but the supply pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the price may decline in the long - term [12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper concentrate TC continues to decline, and the supply is increasing. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [14]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum inventory is decreasing significantly, but the demand growth rate cannot be sustained. It is advisable to be cautious about short - selling in the short term and wait for a better short - selling point [14]. - **Tin**: The supply is gradually recovering, but there is still a raw - material gap in China. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the market is under pressure [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: There is no weather premium for US soybeans currently. The market is in a range - bound situation without a continuous upward drive [16][17]. - **Soybean Meal**: The basis of soybean meal is weakening, and it lacks a stable upward support [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The rapeseed oil inventory is high, but the price is supported by the low - level inventory of rapeseeds and the strong price - support intention of oil mills [17]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil in Southeast Asia is in the production - increasing cycle, and the domestic market generally fluctuates with the BMD market but has stronger support when falling [18]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs has decreased slightly before the Dragon Boat Festival, but the price is still under pressure in the future. The futures may rise in June due to the high basis [19]. - **Corn**: With the harvest of new - season wheat, the corn price is under pressure, and there is no upward drive currently [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, Fed officials' cautious remarks and upcoming US - Japan talks led to a decline in the US dollar index and a cooling of global risk appetite. EU's 17th round of sanctions on Russia and the possible failure of the Iran nuclear negotiation increased short - term risk - aversion sentiment. Domestically, April's domestic economic data showed a slowdown in domestic demand but strong export performance. The central bank's reduction of LPR rates and commercial banks' reduction of deposit rates further eased monetary policy, boosting domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions. For example, stocks are expected to be short - term volatile with a short - term cautious long - position strategy; bonds are at a short - term high and should be observed cautiously; different commodity sectors also have corresponding short - term trends and operation suggestions [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the US dollar index fell, and global risk appetite cooled. Domestically, April's economic data showed a slowdown in domestic demand but strong exports. The central bank's rate cuts and commercial banks' deposit rate cuts boosted domestic risk appetite. Stocks are short - term volatile and can be short - term cautiously long; bonds are at a short - term high and should be observed cautiously; black metals are short - term low - level volatile and should be observed cautiously; non - ferrous metals are short - term volatile and should be observed cautiously; energy and chemicals are short - term volatile and rebounding and can be cautiously long; precious metals are short - term high - level volatile and can be cautiously long [2]. - **Stock Index**: Supported by sectors such as cultivated diamonds, biomedicine, and millet economy, the domestic stock market rose slightly. With the slowdown in domestic demand, strong exports, and monetary policy easing, short - term cautious long - position is recommended [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices rose. Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating and the weakening of the US dollar supported the rebound of gold prices. The Fed's policy path is the core contradiction. Long - term, the global de - dollarization trend supports gold. For silver, due to geopolitical tensions and manufacturing weakness, short - term observation is recommended [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets were stable, and trading volume increased slightly. Despite the LPR rate cut, market confidence was still weak. Demand was weak, and supply was expected to remain high. Short - term, the steel market may be range - bound [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices rebounded slightly. Steel mills' profitability was good, and iron - water production was high. Supply may increase in the second quarter. Short - term, iron ore is strong, and medium - term, a short - position strategy at high prices is recommended [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron were stable. Demand weakened, and supply continued to decline. Short - term, the prices of ferroalloys will continue to fluctuate [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market focused on the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation and the Iran nuclear negotiation. Oil prices were volatile and slightly higher. Short - term, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [8]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices followed crude oil and were volatile. Supply was low, and demand was boosted. Inventory transfer was smooth, and short - term, it will follow crude oil and fluctuate at a high level [8]. - **PX**: PX prices rose due to many maintenance and the resonance of the polyester sector. It will remain in a tight - balance situation. There may be a risk of decline if downstream production cuts occur [8]. - **PTA**: The increase in US orders was not universal, and the domestic market was in the off - season. There is a risk of short - term correction, and the price center will follow crude oil [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply decreased due to unexpected maintenance, and inventory decreased. However, with low downstream profits, there is a risk of short - term correction, and it will be high - level volatile [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: Polyester prices were high - level volatile, and short - fiber prices were slightly lower and overall stable. With stable downstream start - up and expected release of orders, it will continue to be volatile [10]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang was weak. Supply improved marginally, but overall supply was still sufficient, and demand was weak, so the price was under pressure [10]. - **PP**: The domestic PP market price was weak. Although there was a short - term inventory transfer, supply was at a high level, and demand was weak. Attention should be paid to the impact of PP exports on demand [11]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price was adjusted. Import profit was favorable, but overall pressure was not effectively relieved, and the price increase was limited [11]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price was stable with slight fluctuations. In the short - to - medium term, the price was strong and volatile, but in the medium - to - long term, it was under pressure due to high production and limited demand [12][13]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: China's April refined copper production increased. Social inventory increased, and the processing fee was low. With the approaching of the off - season and the impact of tariff reduction, copper prices are short - term volatile, and medium - term short - position opportunities can be sought [14]. - **Aluminum**: The import of primary aluminum increased. Domestic and overseas inventory changes led to a price decline, but the short - term decline space is limited. Short - term short - position should be cautious [14]. - **Tin**: Supply constraints still exist. The mid - term raw material gap is rigidly restricted. Demand is in the off - season, and short - term prices are volatile [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: CBOT soybean prices rose due to concerns about South American crop damage. The future rainfall in Argentina is expected to be normal, and the damage situation needs verification [16]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The cost of imported Brazilian soybeans is expected to weaken. The supply of oil mills has returned to normal, and the basis is weak [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The inventory of soybean oil increased, and the basis was weak. The inventory of rapeseed oil decreased, but the market was in the off - season. The fundamentals of soybean and rapeseed oil are expected to be weak [17]. - **Palm Oil**: BMD palm oil continued to rebound. Domestic inventory has a turning point, but import profit is still inverted. International export growth is limited, and the price increase space is restricted [18]. - **Pig**: After the May holiday, terminal demand was weak, and supply was stable. Spot prices are under pressure, and futures prices are expected to decline further. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [18]. - **Corn**: Under the pressure of registered warehouse receipts, corn futures prices declined. Spot prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and futures prices are stable in the 2300 - 2400 range [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, leading to a rise in US Treasury yields and a fall in the US dollar index, with overall global risk appetite increasing. In China, April's domestic demand slowed and was lower than expected, but exports far exceeded expectations, and the implementation of the policy of significantly reducing tariffs between China and the US helped boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - The stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a cautious short - term long position recommended; government bonds are expected to remain at a high level and fluctuate, with a cautious wait - and - see approach; among commodity sectors, black metals are expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a cautious wait - and - see approach; non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate, with a cautious wait - and - see approach; energy and chemicals are expected to rebound while fluctuating, with a cautious long position recommended; precious metals are expected to remain at a high level and fluctuate, with a cautious wait - and - see approach [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Supported by sectors such as port shipping, real estate, and food processing, the domestic stock market remained basically flat. In April, domestic demand slowed, but exports were strong, and the reduction of tariffs between China and the US helped boost risk appetite. A cautious short - term long position is recommended [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices fluctuated upward on Monday. Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating drove up safe - haven demand, and the weakening US dollar supported the rebound of gold prices. For gold, if it pulls back to the next integer level, a ratio spread structure can be used to build a long - term position. For silver, due to geopolitical tensions supporting investment demand and safe - haven attributes, but manufacturing weakness and tariff supply - chain impacts suppressing industrial consumption expectations, a short - term wait - and - see approach is maintained [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Monday, domestic steel futures and spot prices continued to decline weakly, and market trading volume was low. In April, macroeconomic data was weak, and real demand remained weak. Although the apparent consumption of the five major varieties increased month - on - month, the absolute volume did not exceed the previous high. Steel supply will remain at a high level in the short term, but in the off - season, future demand may not be sufficient to absorb the current high production. A short - term range - bound trading strategy is recommended [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: On Monday, iron ore futures and spot prices continued to be weak. Although iron - water production is currently at a high level, it is likely to decline in the future. This week, global iron ore shipments increased month - on - month, but arrivals decreased. In the second quarter, shipments and arrivals may increase. A medium - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Monday, the spot price of silicon manganese decreased slightly, while that of silicon iron remained flat. Last week, the output of the five major steel varieties decreased, weakening the demand for ferroalloys. The supply of both silicon manganese and silicon iron continued to decline. A short - term range - bound trend is expected [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is concerned about the cease - fire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and the nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran. Oil prices fluctuated and closed higher. A short - term wait - and - see approach is recommended [7]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices followed crude oil and fluctuated without breaking through the previous high. Supply is at a low level, downstream demand has been boosted to some extent, and inventory transfer and destocking are showing signs. It is recommended to follow crude oil and observe the destocking situation in the short term [7]. - **PX**: PX is in a tight - balance situation due to many maintenance activities and the upward trend of the polyester sector. However, if downstream production cuts occur, PX may face a risk of decline [7]. - **PTA**: There are uncertainties in new orders from the US, and the domestic sales market has entered the off - season. Downstream production cuts may be implemented, and there is a short - term risk of correction [8][9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to unexpected early maintenance of leading plants, the supply of ethylene glycol has decreased in the short term, and inventory has been destocked. However, downstream low - profit operations may lead to reduced production, and there is a risk of correction in the short term [9]. - **Short - fiber**: Polyester prices remained high and fluctuated, and short - fiber prices followed with a slight decline. In the short term, downstream production will remain stable, and short - fiber prices are expected to maintain a range - bound trend [9]. - **Methanol**: The market price of methanol in Taicang is weak, and the basis is stable. Supply has improved marginally, but overall supply is still sufficient, and demand is weak, so prices are under pressure [10]. - **PP**: The domestic PP market price is weak. Although there is a short - term inventory transfer due to tariff benefits, supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the impact of PP exports on demand [10]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price has adjusted. Although there are some positive factors such as improved export orders, overall pressure has not been effectively relieved, and the increase in price is limited [11]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is relatively stable, with some local price adjustments. In the short and medium term, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, but in the long term, prices are under pressure due to high production and limited demand [11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The overall import tariff rate in the US may increase. Copper social inventory is increasing, and processing fees are at a historical low. In the short term, copper prices will fluctuate, and in the medium term, opportunities to short should be sought [12]. - **Aluminum**: Market optimism has faded. Although there is a short - term effect of pre - exporting due to tariff reduction, demand is expected to weaken marginally in the medium term. A short position can be considered [12]. - **Tin**: Supply is constrained, and smelting capacity utilization is low. Demand is weak, and it is expected to enter the off - season. In the short term, tin prices will fluctuate, with support from tight supply and pressure from weak demand [13]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Good export data of US soybeans have supported the market, and the new - season sowing progress is fast. There is no strong driving force for price increases [14]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The开机 rate of oil mills is expected to remain above 60% this week. It is expected that the decline in the basis of soybean meal will be limited, but there is a risk of a decline in futures [15][16]. - **Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil**: The inventory of soybean oil is increasing, and the basis is weakening. The inventory of rapeseed oil is decreasing, but the market is in the off - season. The fundamentals of both are expected to be weak [16]. - **Palm Oil**: The domestic palm oil inventory has shown a turning point, and the import profit is still negative. Malaysia has reduced the export tariff, while Indonesia has increased the special export tax [17]. - **Pigs**: After the May holiday, terminal demand is weak, and supply is stable. Spot prices are under pressure, and futures prices are expected to decline further. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities in futures [18]. - **Corn**: Under the pressure of registered warehouse receipts, corn futures prices have declined, and the basis has slightly shrunk. Spot prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and futures prices are expected to remain stable in the range of 2300 - 2400 [18].

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 【宏观】海外方面，美国总统表示将在未来两到三周内对许多国家征收新的关税， 美国关税风险重燃；而 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is shifting from risk-driven to liquidity-driven, with personal investors benefiting the most from indices like the North Securities 50 and micro-cap stocks as tariff easing is fully priced in [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Economic pressures are emerging, and the difficulty of U.S. interest rate cuts is increasing. The market has fully priced in expectations of tariff war easing, and the recovery of growth sectors driven by rising risk appetite is nearing its end. The lowest point of the current export chain's price increase was on April 9, with an acceleration phase starting in late April. The current pressure comes from rising U.S. inflation, which, alongside tariff-related disturbances, is expected to exert upward pressure on inflation into the second quarter of 2025 due to rising housing prices and manufacturing recovery [2]. Participant Structure Changes - There is a notable return of speculative funds, regaining pricing power as implicit risks like tariffs have materialized. In mid to late May, the market will shift from risk appetite improvement to liquidity-driven dynamics. Monitoring models indicate that speculative trading began to bottom out in late April, with significant non-linear characteristics observed in market capitalization, where large-cap indices like the Shanghai Composite and micro-cap stocks are leading gains, while mid-cap indices are lagging [3]. Financial Sector Outlook - The financial sector, which has been long undervalued, is expected to see a recovery. Public fund positions in the consumer sector have increased from 11.46% to 15.65% since the lowest point on March 4. However, their holdings in the financial sector remain low at 5.57%, with banks at 3.31% and non-banks at 1.75%. Despite this, the public fund regulations limit significant reductions in the already underweighted financial sector. The financial sector is favored by the market due to its valuation gap, and various factors are expected to contribute to its recovery, which will likely exhibit a stepwise characteristic [4].

风险偏好打压避险资产，金价下跌 金十数据5月14日讯，黄金下跌，因投资者的风险偏好增强，尽管围绕关税谈判路径的不确定性挥之不 去，而且对今年降息的乐观情绪有所增强。Forex.com市场分析师法瓦德•拉扎克扎达表示："随着关税 降低，以及谈判显示出实际进展，投资者正变得越来越放心。更重要的是，周二美国公布的低于预期的 通胀数据火上浇油，安抚了特朗普的贸易关税将引发新一轮通胀浪潮的紧张情绪。看跌势头可能会持续 几天，但长期看涨前景仍然完好无损。" ...